BV1t8LP6AEus · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,680 这是楔形的第三节课 2 00:00:08,199 --> 00:00:10,220 首先我会讲很重要 3 00:00:10,220 --> 00:00:13,759 一个背景不好的楔形不是反转机会 4 00:00:14,169 --> 00:00:16,489 它不会导致反转 5 00:00:17,350 --> 00:00:18,570 然后我会讲 6 00:00:18,570 --> 00:00:21,550 通常当你看到一个楔形的时候 7 00:00:22,170 --> 00:00:26,179 相反的趋势在就趋势结束之前就已经开始了 8 00:00:26,339 --> 00:00:29,179 如果从上涨趋势变成下降趋势 9 00:00:29,179 --> 00:00:32,119 或者从下降趋势会有一个过渡趋势 10 00:00:32,119 --> 00:00:35,689 在这期间两种趋势同时存在 11 00:00:36,369 --> 00:00:37,600 最后我会讲 12 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:40,979 你可以在较小时间周期的K线图上提前入场 13 00:00:40,979 --> 00:00:44,420 尽管大多数交易者应该只专注于一个K线图 14 00:00:44,420 --> 00:00:47,018 不用看其他的时间周期 15 00:00:53,740 --> 00:00:55,579 市场正在向下突破 16 00:00:55,579 --> 00:00:57,780 下跌不断下跌 17 00:00:57,780 --> 00:01:01,890 你可以数三次向下推动123 18 00:01:01,890 --> 00:01:03,189 所以这是楔形 19 00:01:03,189 --> 00:01:04,849 但在强下降趋势中 20 00:01:04,849 --> 00:01:07,489 只靠楔行不足以成为买入的理由 21 00:01:07,489 --> 00:01:10,009 这个下降通道非常窄 22 00:01:10,009 --> 00:01:13,728 就算上涨也更可能只是小反弹 23 00:01:15,819 --> 00:01:18,400 下降趋势中总是能找到些形底 24 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:20,859 123注 25 00:01:20,859 --> 00:01:23,140 因为有很多一不断的下跌 26 00:01:23,140 --> 00:01:27,780 3123你可以数出三段 27 00:01:29,180 --> 00:01:31,900 不代表可以合理的期待反转 28 00:01:34,019 --> 00:01:35,640 这么的窄下降通道 29 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:38,900 在更高的时间周期上就是大阴线突破 30 00:01:38,900 --> 00:01:40,459 当市场处于突破阶段 31 00:01:40,459 --> 00:01:41,780 这里是空头突破 32 00:01:41,780 --> 00:01:42,980 你只能做空 33 00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:46,159 不能做多任何上涨 34 00:01:46,159 --> 00:01:50,060 比如这里或这里都只是空头止盈造成的 35 00:01:50,060 --> 00:01:53,420 而这些空头很快就会再次入场做空 36 00:01:53,420 --> 00:01:57,420 期待它反转成上涨趋势是不现实的 37 00:01:58,030 --> 00:01:59,950 这些反弹是熊奇 38 00:01:59,950 --> 00:02:02,750 而不是上涨趋势的开始 39 00:02:09,878 --> 00:02:13,598 看这里下跌之后有上涨的尝试 40 00:02:13,598 --> 00:02:16,758 但是高点没有超过突破点 41 00:02:17,439 --> 00:02:18,780 这就存在缺口 42 00:02:18,780 --> 00:02:20,180 再次向下突破 43 00:02:20,180 --> 00:02:22,979 又尝试上涨漂亮的大阳线 44 00:02:22,979 --> 00:02:25,240 但他没有补掉缺口 45 00:02:25,439 --> 00:02:28,039 这个下降趋势正在不断的制造缺口 46 00:02:28,039 --> 00:02:30,219 当下跌的波段之间没有重叠 47 00:02:30,219 --> 00:02:32,039 当你看到这样的缺口时 48 00:02:32,039 --> 00:02:33,860 下降趋势太强了 49 00:02:33,860 --> 00:02:35,219 没办法做多 50 00:02:35,219 --> 00:02:38,189 另外你看得到多少大阳线 51 00:02:38,189 --> 00:02:40,840 有什么证据表明多头很强壮 52 00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:42,800 注这里有一例如连续大阳线 53 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:44,639 但是后续或者跟到em上方等等 54 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:46,819 最后而且没有通道线并不收敛 55 00:02:46,819 --> 00:02:48,969 不存在楔形的形状柱 56 00:02:48,969 --> 00:02:50,969 这一点相对最不重要 57 00:02:50,969 --> 00:02:54,129 缺口和趋势的强度才是不能买入的关键原因 58 00:02:54,129 --> 00:02:55,419 下降趋势越强 59 00:02:55,419 --> 00:02:58,370 做多信号K线也必须越强 60 00:02:58,530 --> 00:03:00,969 这样才能反超下降趋势的强度 61 00:03:01,969 --> 00:03:05,250 然而在这里没有真正强势的阳线 62 00:03:05,250 --> 00:03:06,789 这里有小阳线 63 00:03:06,789 --> 00:03:09,949 这里有一个这个小十字星 64 00:03:09,949 --> 00:03:12,189 足够反转左边的下降趋势吗 65 00:03:12,189 --> 00:03:13,770 显然不行 66 00:03:13,770 --> 00:03:15,310 这个也是一样 67 00:03:15,310 --> 00:03:16,909 有一根大阳线 68 00:03:16,909 --> 00:03:19,289 但是跟随在哪里呢 69 00:03:23,900 --> 00:03:25,259 大阳线突破 70 00:03:25,259 --> 00:03:27,099 然后进入斩上涨通道 71 00:03:27,099 --> 00:03:28,900 在更高的时间周期上 72 00:03:28,900 --> 00:03:31,389 这也是突破的一部分 73 00:03:31,710 --> 00:03:33,590 在更高的时间周期上 74 00:03:33,590 --> 00:03:35,409 突破还在继续上涨 75 00:03:35,409 --> 00:03:37,550 当市场处于这样的窄通道 76 00:03:37,550 --> 00:03:40,810 这等于是突破阶段只能买入做多 77 00:03:40,810 --> 00:03:42,769 不要想着去做空 78 00:03:42,769 --> 00:03:46,088 上涨趋势中总能找到很多三推楔形顶 79 00:03:46,088 --> 00:03:50,879 123或者12312 80 00:03:50,879 --> 00:03:53,129 随便怎么数都有三推 81 00:03:53,129 --> 00:03:55,389 但他们都处于窄上涨通道 82 00:03:55,389 --> 00:03:57,129 所以都只是小反转 83 00:03:57,129 --> 00:04:01,250 小回调更有可能会形成牛骑 84 00:04:01,250 --> 00:04:03,270 然后上涨趋势恢复 85 00:04:03,270 --> 00:04:05,370 而不是反转 86 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:11,580 记住我的80%法则 87 00:04:11,580 --> 00:04:13,599 如果市场处于强上涨趋势 88 00:04:13,599 --> 00:04:16,019 80%的反转尝试会失败 89 00:04:16,019 --> 00:04:17,329 并成为牛骑 90 00:04:17,329 --> 00:04:19,550 包头皮的空头一直在亏钱 91 00:04:19,550 --> 00:04:21,129 他们一直在卖出做空 92 00:04:21,129 --> 00:04:23,709 在这些空头的视角里突破失败 93 00:04:23,709 --> 00:04:25,750 做空三锤蝎是末端 94 00:04:25,750 --> 00:04:27,629 牛起做空做空又有楔形 95 00:04:27,629 --> 00:04:29,449 好多些楔形做空 96 00:04:29,449 --> 00:04:31,870 但全都在亏钱 97 00:04:36,180 --> 00:04:37,660 在任何趋势中 98 00:04:37,660 --> 00:04:42,250 交易者总是在数反转的次数回调下跌 99 00:04:42,250 --> 00:04:44,569 这是第一段再次回调 100 00:04:44,569 --> 00:04:46,209 这是第二段 101 00:04:46,209 --> 00:04:48,389 第三段上涨回调 102 00:04:48,389 --> 00:04:50,850 第三段上涨结束 103 00:04:56,300 --> 00:04:59,540 当交易者在数K线数波段的时候 104 00:04:59,540 --> 00:05:01,500 如果看到这么强势的突破 105 00:05:01,500 --> 00:05:03,740 他们就会重新开始计数 106 00:05:03,740 --> 00:05:05,779 所以他不再是第三推 107 00:05:05,779 --> 00:05:07,939 而是新的第一推 108 00:05:18,399 --> 00:05:22,319 当交易者在数波段并且看到三次向上推动时 109 00:05:22,319 --> 00:05:24,079 要注意结构的对称性 110 00:05:24,079 --> 00:05:26,389 注时间和空间的对称 111 00:05:26,389 --> 00:05:28,428 希望1~2之间的距离 112 00:05:28,869 --> 00:05:31,428 和2~3之间的距离大致相同 113 00:05:31,428 --> 00:05:33,228 注即二在一和三 114 00:05:33,228 --> 00:05:36,709 如果1~2之间的距离和2~3之间的距离 115 00:05:36,709 --> 00:05:38,350 两者相差过大 116 00:05:38,350 --> 00:05:41,990 那么电脑程序往往就会忽略这个通道 117 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:46,800 这里一和二之间有21根K线 118 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:49,259 而二和三之间只有七根K线 119 00:05:49,259 --> 00:05:51,639 这太不对称了 120 00:05:52,838 --> 00:05:55,798 所以交易者往往不把它看作楔形顶 121 00:05:55,798 --> 00:05:59,180 而是预期上方还有更多上涨的空间 122 00:05:59,180 --> 00:06:01,120 看到这里的强势突破 123 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:03,060 交易者会重新开始计数 124 00:06:03,060 --> 00:06:04,279 只是新的第一推 125 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:05,899 这是二 126 00:06:09,319 --> 00:06:11,879 强势的多头突破重新开始 127 00:06:11,879 --> 00:06:13,000 技术 128 00:06:15,740 --> 00:06:19,019 所以是新的123 129 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:30,060 这里有三次向下推动123 130 00:06:30,060 --> 00:06:32,500 而且在这里线收了口反弹的高点 131 00:06:32,500 --> 00:06:33,839 没有碰到突破点 132 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:35,180 这就是一个问题 133 00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:37,019 每当存在缺口 134 00:06:37,019 --> 00:06:40,199 尽管它反弹到了这个低点的上方 135 00:06:40,569 --> 00:06:44,170 但是没有回到第一推的最低点上方 136 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:49,019 如果三推楔形底的内部有空头缺口 137 00:06:49,019 --> 00:06:50,879 通常说明下降通道太窄 138 00:06:50,879 --> 00:06:54,319 这就是为什么之前要讲重叠的重要性 139 00:06:57,279 --> 00:06:59,660 楔形通常需要阶梯式的下跌 140 00:06:59,660 --> 00:07:03,259 需要反弹和前期的突破重叠及补掉缺口 141 00:07:03,259 --> 00:07:05,100 反弹到突破点的上方 142 00:07:05,100 --> 00:07:07,540 说明有足够的买压 143 00:07:07,939 --> 00:07:11,819 你也可以说他是楔形负123 144 00:07:11,819 --> 00:07:13,439 但还没有同样的问题 145 00:07:13,439 --> 00:07:16,540 因此它可能不是一个可靠的楔形底 146 00:07:17,639 --> 00:07:19,519 123 147 00:07:19,519 --> 00:07:21,860 然后重新开始技强势突破 148 00:07:21,860 --> 00:07:25,038 123仍然在形成缺口 149 00:07:25,038 --> 00:07:27,079 这说明下降通道太窄 150 00:07:27,079 --> 00:07:29,358 更可能只是小反弹 151 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:37,360 在前期低点下方挂限价单 152 00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:39,040 逢低买入的多头正在亏钱 153 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:41,040 如果限价单多头在亏钱 154 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:42,399 注逢低买 155 00:07:42,399 --> 00:07:43,620 那么在K线上方 156 00:07:43,620 --> 00:07:46,810 用突破单买入的多头更是赚不到钱注 157 00:07:46,810 --> 00:07:48,550 因此追涨的人多头太弱 158 00:07:48,550 --> 00:07:50,329 赚到钱最多就是小反弹 159 00:07:50,329 --> 00:07:53,550 无法期待有大的反转上涨 160 00:07:57,560 --> 00:07:59,689 下降通道太窄了 161 00:07:59,850 --> 00:08:01,730 没有连续的大阳线 162 00:08:04,470 --> 00:08:08,129 因此反弹大概率会成为雄奇 163 00:08:09,029 --> 00:08:10,410 会再次下跌 164 00:08:10,410 --> 00:08:12,029 最多就是进入震荡区 165 00:08:12,029 --> 00:08:14,610 这里在窄幅震荡了很久之后 166 00:08:14,610 --> 00:08:16,750 下跌创了新低 167 00:08:26,899 --> 00:08:29,560 有时楔形中的波段是不太明显的 168 00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:34,879 注需要去更可能只是一根阳线结构后一根阴线 169 00:08:35,639 --> 00:08:37,879 这里又有一个嵌套式的楔形 170 00:08:37,879 --> 00:08:41,309 一下跌二下跌 171 00:08:41,309 --> 00:08:47,149 然后三第三段可以细分成一个更小的楔形阳线 172 00:08:47,149 --> 00:08:51,129 十字星阳线阴线两根阳线 173 00:08:51,129 --> 00:08:54,070 然后阴线在一个更小时间周期上 174 00:08:54,070 --> 00:08:55,529 它具有楔形的结构 175 00:08:55,529 --> 00:08:58,179 但是在这张图上看就不太明显 176 00:08:58,179 --> 00:09:01,769 每当你在一根阳线后面看到阴线或十字星 177 00:09:01,769 --> 00:09:02,809 那就是小的 178 00:09:02,809 --> 00:09:05,429 第一段又有一根阳线上涨 179 00:09:05,429 --> 00:09:08,370 然后阴线那就是第二段 180 00:09:09,929 --> 00:09:11,769 这里的上涨通道很窄 181 00:09:11,769 --> 00:09:13,970 整个通道都很窄 182 00:09:14,629 --> 00:09:18,129 所以第一次反转下跌大概率只是小反转 183 00:09:18,129 --> 00:09:21,429 变成牛起或震荡区间 184 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:34,490 其中有一个小楔形 185 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:36,299 三次向上推阳线 186 00:09:36,299 --> 00:09:39,220 阴线阳线十字星 187 00:09:39,220 --> 00:09:41,039 然后第三推上涨 188 00:09:41,039 --> 00:09:42,940 如果上涨趋势之后 189 00:09:42,940 --> 00:09:44,899 市场进入窄震荡区间 190 00:09:44,899 --> 00:09:47,859 经常会出现高点降低的大反转机会 191 00:09:47,859 --> 00:09:49,818 它通常以某种双顶的形式 192 00:09:49,818 --> 00:09:50,418 在前几节 193 00:09:50,418 --> 00:09:53,980 你可以说这根K线和那根K线形成了双顶 194 00:09:53,980 --> 00:09:55,940 和其他的大反转一样 195 00:09:55,940 --> 00:09:57,370 胜率不高 196 00:09:57,370 --> 00:10:00,450 大约40%的概率能抓到下跌波段 197 00:10:00,450 --> 00:10:03,090 如果你等到大阴线突破之后再卖出做空 198 00:10:03,090 --> 00:10:04,049 继续下跌 199 00:10:04,049 --> 00:10:06,470 让你赚钱的概率就更高 200 00:10:06,470 --> 00:10:08,970 但是入场晚止损更远 201 00:10:08,970 --> 00:10:10,590 所以风险更大 202 00:10:10,590 --> 00:10:13,220 入场早止损很近 203 00:10:13,220 --> 00:10:14,679 风险是小了 204 00:10:14,679 --> 00:10:16,750 但胜率也更低 205 00:10:17,190 --> 00:10:18,850 两者都是可以接受的 206 00:10:18,850 --> 00:10:21,350 只要数学期望足够好 207 00:10:26,840 --> 00:10:28,379 这里有一个楔形底 208 00:10:28,379 --> 00:10:33,570 123阴线下跌之后有阳线反弹 209 00:10:33,570 --> 00:10:36,649 这是楔形中易推的最低要求 210 00:10:39,820 --> 00:10:41,600 这里一反弹 211 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:43,580 然后二反弹 212 00:10:43,580 --> 00:10:44,600 然后三 213 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:48,320 然而还有一个更小的楔形阴线阳线 214 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:51,009 阴线十字星阳线 215 00:10:51,009 --> 00:10:52,950 然后阴线阳线 216 00:10:52,950 --> 00:10:54,610 这是一个更小的楔形 217 00:10:54,610 --> 00:10:56,500 123 218 00:10:56,500 --> 00:10:58,340 所以有不同的划线方法 219 00:10:58,340 --> 00:11:04,269 123多头制造了低点抬高的大反转 220 00:11:05,190 --> 00:11:06,889 左边是下降趋势 221 00:11:06,889 --> 00:11:08,690 这可能是末端雄奇 222 00:11:08,690 --> 00:11:11,068 然后低点降低的大反转 223 00:11:11,068 --> 00:11:13,149 多头突破并不算太强 224 00:11:13,149 --> 00:11:15,828 但这里的几次反弹还是交易者预期 225 00:11:15,828 --> 00:11:18,730 跌破这个震荡区间可能会失败 226 00:11:18,730 --> 00:11:22,230 然后这个震荡区间可能会成为最后一个雄奇 227 00:11:22,230 --> 00:11:24,649 你可以说末端是末端骑行反转 228 00:11:24,649 --> 00:11:26,629 或者低点降低的大反转 229 00:11:26,629 --> 00:11:29,658 你可以说下降趋势通过横盘的方式 230 00:11:29,658 --> 00:11:30,499 突破了趋势线 231 00:11:30,499 --> 00:11:32,499 空头尝试恢复下降趋势 232 00:11:32,499 --> 00:11:34,178 但是失败 233 00:11:35,159 --> 00:11:36,549 强势的反弹 234 00:11:36,549 --> 00:11:38,549 然后急速变通道的小下降 235 00:11:38,549 --> 00:11:39,389 急速下跌 236 00:11:39,389 --> 00:11:40,250 第一推 237 00:11:40,250 --> 00:11:41,090 第二推 238 00:11:41,090 --> 00:11:42,110 第三推 239 00:11:42,110 --> 00:11:44,190 然后出现了不错的做多信号 240 00:11:44,190 --> 00:11:45,669 K线 241 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:51,120 我认为重要的是要意识到 242 00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:54,860 大多数反转在前一个趋势结束前就开始了 243 00:11:54,860 --> 00:11:56,990 反转有一个过渡期 244 00:12:03,340 --> 00:12:09,190 上涨趋势楔形牛企三次向下推动一二 245 00:12:09,190 --> 00:12:12,480 但是看第一推这个下降通道小 246 00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:16,399 下降趋势在上涨趋势结束前就开始了 247 00:12:16,899 --> 00:12:18,219 这里也是一样 248 00:12:18,219 --> 00:12:20,619 下跌之后先创了新高 249 00:12:20,619 --> 00:12:22,578 然后才是第二推和第三推 250 00:12:22,578 --> 00:12:25,078 你可以说它是三角形或楔形 251 00:12:25,078 --> 00:12:28,958 这是这个楔形三角形的第一段下跌 252 00:12:30,659 --> 00:12:33,179 而它发生在上涨趋势结束之前 253 00:12:33,179 --> 00:12:34,179 这里也是一样 254 00:12:34,179 --> 00:12:35,639 这个楔形雄奇 255 00:12:35,639 --> 00:12:38,679 下降通道在上涨趋势结束前就开始 256 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:39,879 这实际上很合理 257 00:12:39,879 --> 00:12:42,279 通常上涨趋势不会直接变成下降 258 00:12:42,279 --> 00:12:44,049 会有某种过渡阶段 259 00:12:44,049 --> 00:12:47,470 过渡的特征就是下降趋势的第一段 260 00:12:47,470 --> 00:12:50,879 在上涨趋势结束之前就形成了 261 00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:53,120 这里也是一样 262 00:12:56,960 --> 00:12:59,870 楔形牛旗的第一段下跌回调 263 00:12:59,870 --> 00:13:02,549 在上涨趋势结束之前就形成了 264 00:13:02,549 --> 00:13:06,970 还有这里也是你可以说牛急从这里开始一回调 265 00:13:06,970 --> 00:13:10,899 二或者说它其实是回调的开始 266 00:13:11,839 --> 00:13:13,698 这里是一个过渡阶段 267 00:13:13,698 --> 00:13:16,198 正在进入下降趋势 268 00:13:16,688 --> 00:13:18,908 而上涨趋势还没有结束 269 00:13:18,908 --> 00:13:20,009 这里也是一样 270 00:13:20,009 --> 00:13:23,208 你可以说这是高二买点一回调 271 00:13:23,208 --> 00:13:25,870 我认为这更像是楔形牛旗 272 00:13:25,870 --> 00:13:29,470 这里上涨趋势和下降趋势共存 273 00:13:29,710 --> 00:13:31,669 市场处于过度下降趋势 274 00:13:31,669 --> 00:13:33,990 在上涨趋势结束前就开始了 275 00:13:33,990 --> 00:13:36,259 上涨趋势仍然有效 276 00:13:36,259 --> 00:13:39,500 尽管楔形下降通道已经开始 277 00:13:43,279 --> 00:13:44,840 我是这样标记的 278 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:46,559 123 279 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:47,639 这里也是一样 280 00:13:47,639 --> 00:13:50,159 我认为这是调整的一部分 281 00:13:50,159 --> 00:13:53,240 尽管上涨趋势尚未结束 282 00:13:54,799 --> 00:13:55,940 无论如何 283 00:13:55,940 --> 00:13:57,559 不管你认为他是高二 284 00:13:57,559 --> 00:14:01,840 杠杠一二还是都是在寻找反转上涨的做多机会 285 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:03,639 这里也是一样的 286 00:14:11,220 --> 00:14:14,080 楔形中的一推有时候可能很小 287 00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:15,919 小到只有一根K线 288 00:14:15,919 --> 00:14:19,100 你可以去更小的时间周期看得更清楚 289 00:14:19,100 --> 00:14:20,580 但没有太大的必要 290 00:14:20,580 --> 00:14:21,820 看这个时间周期 291 00:14:21,820 --> 00:14:25,370 5分钟就能推断并了解小周期发生了什么 292 00:14:26,529 --> 00:14:29,769 这里第一推只有一根K线 293 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:32,799 后面是阳线 294 00:14:32,799 --> 00:14:34,269 所以在我看来 295 00:14:34,269 --> 00:14:36,389 这是一个小下跌波段 296 00:14:36,389 --> 00:14:38,870 阳线代表这里有几根K线下跌 297 00:14:38,870 --> 00:14:40,750 阳线代表第二推结束 298 00:14:40,750 --> 00:14:44,909 几根K线下跌阳线代表第三推结束 299 00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:48,980 这里有一个长下影线 300 00:14:48,980 --> 00:14:51,230 市场先下跌再上涨 301 00:14:51,230 --> 00:14:53,029 在更小的时间周期上 302 00:14:53,029 --> 00:14:56,029 这就是小的第一段下跌阴线阳线 303 00:14:56,029 --> 00:14:59,919 这是第二推阴线阳线 304 00:14:59,919 --> 00:15:01,940 第三推 305 00:15:03,259 --> 00:15:05,519 这是一个小楔形牛旗 306 00:15:05,519 --> 00:15:08,559 在更小的时间周期去看会更明显 307 00:15:08,559 --> 00:15:11,179 但是就看这张图也能推断出来 308 00:15:11,179 --> 00:15:13,440 所以这就足够了 309 00:15:13,950 --> 00:15:16,029 这里也是一样 310 00:15:16,029 --> 00:15:18,870 十字星先下跌下再上涨 311 00:15:18,870 --> 00:15:19,590 上涨 312 00:15:19,590 --> 00:15:21,070 然后明显下跌 313 00:15:21,070 --> 00:15:22,519 这是三推回调 314 00:15:22,519 --> 00:15:25,039 尽管它没有楔形的形状 315 00:15:26,470 --> 00:15:29,750 还有这里多头突破运线时 316 00:15:29,750 --> 00:15:33,230 阴线可能是楔形牛旗的第一段下跌 317 00:15:33,230 --> 00:15:35,629 我就是这样标记的 318 00:15:35,750 --> 00:15:39,789 你可以直接把它看作高2~1反弹二 319 00:15:39,789 --> 00:15:44,529 我会说他是楔形扭起负123 320 00:15:44,970 --> 00:15:46,830 市场正处于过渡阶段 321 00:15:46,830 --> 00:15:49,429 这里市场仍然处于上涨趋势中 322 00:15:49,429 --> 00:15:52,690 但同时也是下降趋势的开始 323 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:55,840 到底是第几推 324 00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:57,899 叫什么名字不重要 325 00:15:57,899 --> 00:15:59,440 重要的反转上涨是买 326 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:00,600 无论你说是高涨 327 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:04,919 尤其你都是想买入做多压住上涨 328 00:16:11,100 --> 00:16:13,659 楔形雄奇是一个小的上涨趋势 329 00:16:13,659 --> 00:16:16,559 它可能在下降趋势结束之前就形成了 330 00:16:16,559 --> 00:16:18,220 通常会有一个过渡阶段 331 00:16:18,220 --> 00:16:21,789 第一段上涨形成了下降趋势中降低的高点 332 00:16:21,789 --> 00:16:23,070 然后继续下跌 333 00:16:23,070 --> 00:16:23,710 创新低 334 00:16:23,710 --> 00:16:27,210 但这仍然是上涨通道雄奇的一部分 335 00:16:28,450 --> 00:16:30,409 比如这里反弹 336 00:16:30,409 --> 00:16:34,779 然后下降趋势继续上涨的第二推在这里 337 00:16:34,779 --> 00:16:38,629 然后第三推你可以说他是楔形雄奇 338 00:16:38,629 --> 00:16:42,549 尽管熊奇在下降趋势结束之前就开始了 339 00:16:45,779 --> 00:16:47,240 这里也是一样 340 00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:48,580 处于过渡期 341 00:16:48,580 --> 00:16:50,220 下降趋势还没结束 342 00:16:50,220 --> 00:16:53,190 但是小上涨趋势已经开始了 343 00:16:53,190 --> 00:16:56,700 下降趋势和上涨趋势之间通常有重叠 344 00:16:56,700 --> 00:16:59,820 注有一个阶段能同时处于上涨和下跌 345 00:16:59,820 --> 00:17:03,029 所以这里的关注我认为这是上涨趋势的开始 346 00:17:03,029 --> 00:17:04,950 小的上涨趋势是 347 00:17:04,950 --> 00:17:07,329 每个熊奇都是一个小的上涨趋势 348 00:17:07,329 --> 00:17:10,150 但大的趋势仍在下跌 349 00:17:12,779 --> 00:17:16,859 你可以说它是两段反弹一两 350 00:17:17,299 --> 00:17:21,720 或者看作楔形雄奇反弹从这里就开始了 351 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:23,680 然后是第二第三推 352 00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:25,000 这就是我标记它的方式 353 00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:26,519 我会把它标记为一个楔形 354 00:17:26,519 --> 00:17:28,269 我没有画出下面的通道线 355 00:17:28,269 --> 00:17:32,170 如果画出来就可以清晰地看到楔形的形状 356 00:17:32,170 --> 00:17:34,509 倾斜在角收敛三角形反弹 357 00:17:34,509 --> 00:17:37,200 楔形反弹是一个小的上涨趋势 358 00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:39,240 我认为它从这里就开始了 359 00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:41,200 尽管仍处于下降趋势 360 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:44,069 这是下跌到上涨之间的过过渡 361 00:17:44,069 --> 00:17:46,869 两个趋势同时存在 362 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:48,400 上涨趋势 363 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:49,279 在开始 364 00:17:49,279 --> 00:17:51,000 下降趋势仍在继续 365 00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:54,119 这段下跌也是上涨通道的一部分 366 00:17:55,619 --> 00:17:57,579 这里也是一样 367 00:17:57,579 --> 00:18:00,339 不难发现这个现象很常见 368 00:18:00,339 --> 00:18:03,119 反弹上涨下降趋势再继续 369 00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:06,960 这个反弹是楔形雄起的第一次向上推动 370 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:11,839 重点是什么 371 00:18:11,839 --> 00:18:13,740 市场处于下降趋势 372 00:18:13,740 --> 00:18:16,799 你预期每次反弹压住这些都是小反弹 373 00:18:16,799 --> 00:18:18,679 都是熊奇 374 00:18:19,239 --> 00:18:21,479 然后寻找入场做空的机会 375 00:18:21,479 --> 00:18:26,118 所以你在第三推之后卖出做空红色框框 376 00:18:29,500 --> 00:18:33,160 你可以在更小的时间周期上提前入场 377 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:34,700 不过我认为盈亏比更 378 00:18:34,700 --> 00:18:36,900 如果交易者就专注眼前的K线图 379 00:18:36,900 --> 00:18:39,119 他们可以赚更多的钱 380 00:18:42,779 --> 00:18:44,779 这是欧元兑日元的月K线 381 00:18:46,140 --> 00:18:47,440 显然是楔形底 382 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:50,700 123或者三 383 00:18:51,109 --> 00:18:53,750 然后这里有一个好的IU以做多机会 384 00:18:53,750 --> 00:18:57,109 复习IU以内外内 385 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:02,138 交易者预期市场会反转上涨 386 00:19:02,138 --> 00:19:04,219 他们看到月K线的楔形底 387 00:19:04,219 --> 00:19:05,898 然后去周K线或日K线 388 00:19:05,898 --> 00:19:08,459 甚至60分钟或5分钟图 389 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:11,599 寻找反转做多的入场点 390 00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:15,259 很多时候第一次尝试会失败 391 00:19:15,259 --> 00:19:17,670 然后出现新的低点 392 00:19:17,670 --> 00:19:19,809 这里有一个大的楔形一 393 00:19:19,809 --> 00:19:23,970 第三推的内部三嵌套了小的楔形123 394 00:19:23,970 --> 00:19:24,990 合理的买点 395 00:19:24,990 --> 00:19:26,690 但是下降通道很窄 396 00:19:26,690 --> 00:19:30,690 做多信号K线也比这个反转很可能不会成功 397 00:19:31,009 --> 00:19:35,009 但是这里空头突破不错的阳线反转 398 00:19:35,220 --> 00:19:38,500 再次下跌之后又出现了一个好的阳线 399 00:19:38,500 --> 00:19:41,940 这样反转成功的概率就变高了 400 00:19:43,329 --> 00:19:45,750 如果你按照月K线进行交易 401 00:19:45,750 --> 00:19:47,730 就在这个阳线的高点上方买 402 00:19:47,730 --> 00:19:50,549 你的成交价是99.18亿欧元 403 00:19:50,549 --> 00:19:53,430 等于99点18日元 404 00:19:54,519 --> 00:20:01,089 你可以这样画些形123或者这样123 405 00:20:01,690 --> 00:20:04,690 不同的电脑程序有不同的算法和选择 406 00:20:06,009 --> 00:20:09,259 这是刚才那个楔形底反转的日K线图 407 00:20:09,259 --> 00:20:11,880 如果你按照月K线的信号买入 408 00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:13,500 这是你的入场价格 409 00:20:13,500 --> 00:20:14,740 99.18 410 00:20:15,779 --> 00:20:19,410 然而如果你在月K线上发现楔形底即将行动 411 00:20:19,410 --> 00:20:22,509 你可以去日K线上寻找信号并提前入场 412 00:20:22,509 --> 00:20:25,089 比如在这里95.21 413 00:20:25,089 --> 00:20:28,660 或者这里96.91 414 00:20:31,759 --> 00:20:35,000 这是欧元兑美元的60分钟图 415 00:20:38,019 --> 00:20:40,859 可以看到也许正在形成楔形顶 416 00:20:40,859 --> 00:20:43,039 三次推动一二 417 00:20:43,039 --> 00:20:46,640 然后这里的上涨是三楔形 418 00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:48,880 扭起三次向下的推动 419 00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:51,069 123 420 00:20:51,430 --> 00:20:53,890 如果你预期上涨趋势会继续 421 00:20:53,890 --> 00:20:56,589 那就开始寻找牛骑的结构 422 00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:01,480 如果你看到下跌的第一和第二推足够强势 423 00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:05,079 那么很有可能还会有第三段下跌 424 00:21:05,809 --> 00:21:08,450 你可以在60分钟图上进行交易 425 00:21:08,450 --> 00:21:10,869 在这根K线的高点上方买入 426 00:21:10,869 --> 00:21:15,470 或者可以去更小的时间周期提前入场做反转 427 00:21:15,630 --> 00:21:18,630 如果你在60分钟的楔形牛旗入场 428 00:21:18,630 --> 00:21:20,349 你的成交价格在这里 429 00:21:20,349 --> 00:21:22,470 1.0795 430 00:21:24,819 --> 00:21:26,460 这是5分钟K线图 431 00:21:26,460 --> 00:21:28,960 这个是刚才60分钟图的入场点 432 00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:31,190 1.0795 433 00:21:31,910 --> 00:21:36,680 然而你在60分钟图上看到了潜在的楔形牛旗 434 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:40,299 就可以去5分钟的周期找机会提前入场 435 00:21:40,299 --> 00:21:43,680 比如这里或这里小双底或小三角形 436 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:46,039 123 437 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:50,339 入场价是1.0780 438 00:21:50,339 --> 00:21:51,799 刚才是1.079 439 00:21:51,799 --> 00:21:53,920 比刚才低了大约15个pip 440 00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:56,950 多赚了一笔包头皮交易的利润 441 00:22:01,039 --> 00:22:02,920 这节课我首先讲了 442 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:07,589 为什么背景不好的楔形不是反转机会强 443 00:22:07,589 --> 00:22:09,829 下降趋势中可以输很多三推 444 00:22:09,829 --> 00:22:11,509 这些不是好的楔形底 445 00:22:11,509 --> 00:22:13,029 市场会继续呈上涨 446 00:22:13,029 --> 00:22:15,109 趋势中的三推不是好的楔形顶 447 00:22:15,109 --> 00:22:16,730 市场还会不断上涨 448 00:22:16,730 --> 00:22:18,190 楔形的背景不好 449 00:22:18,190 --> 00:22:20,089 就是指波段之间没有重叠 450 00:22:20,089 --> 00:22:21,470 不是一个阶梯式的趋势 451 00:22:21,470 --> 00:22:22,970 趋势之中存在缺口 452 00:22:22,970 --> 00:22:24,109 通道太窄 453 00:22:24,109 --> 00:22:26,190 不能指望市场突然大反转 454 00:22:27,190 --> 00:22:28,069 然后我讲了 455 00:22:28,069 --> 00:22:31,589 新趋势往往在旧趋势结束之前就开始了 456 00:22:32,970 --> 00:22:35,210 趋势之间通常会有过渡阶段 457 00:22:36,650 --> 00:22:38,049 最后我讲了 458 00:22:38,049 --> 00:22:40,650 有时交易者想要提前入场 459 00:22:41,348 --> 00:22:43,308 如果在大的周期月K线 460 00:22:43,308 --> 00:22:48,068 周K线60分钟发现了潜在的反转结构 461 00:22:48,909 --> 00:22:52,628 可以去更小的时间周期找机会提前入场 462 00:22:56,819 --> 00:22:58,200 我是阿尔布鲁克斯 463 00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:01,059 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程先行的 464 00:23:01,059 --> 00:23:03,519 第三节课就先讲到这里
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