听说有人数钱数到手抽筋了，重磅财报一周要来了。【2026-04-24】

1
00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:00,440
Hello

2
00:00:00,440 --> 00:00:00,960
大家好

3
00:00:00,960 --> 00:00:02,640
欢迎回到阳光财经周末点评

4
00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:03,480
我是SUNY

5
00:00:03,480 --> 00:00:06,599
今天是2026年4月24号星期五

6
00:00:06,599 --> 00:00:08,000
又一周过去了

7
00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:10,679
本周标普指数回到7000点上方

8
00:00:10,679 --> 00:00:13,310
市场风险偏好迅速回升

9
00:00:13,310 --> 00:00:16,370
今天标普指数上涨了56.68点

10
00:00:16,370 --> 00:00:17,929
涨幅0.8%

11
00:00:17,929 --> 00:00:19,530
继续创新高

12
00:00:19,530 --> 00:00:21,989
这说明小平台已经突破

13
00:00:21,989 --> 00:00:24,539
接下来仍将是上升趋势

14
00:00:24,539 --> 00:00:28,300
纳斯达克指数今天上涨398.09点

15
00:00:28,300 --> 00:00:30,000
涨幅1.63%

16
00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:32,780
是三大指数中表现最强的一个

17
00:00:32,780 --> 00:00:36,359
这说明市场整体上涨的基础还是科技股

18
00:00:36,359 --> 00:00:37,619
科技股上涨

19
00:00:37,619 --> 00:00:40,119
大盘上涨的持续性会比较好

20
00:00:40,119 --> 00:00:41,439
相对应的是

21
00:00:45,979 --> 00:00:47,840
指数还没有创新高

22
00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:49,859
市场追捧科技板块

23
00:00:49,859 --> 00:00:51,719
传统板块表现一般

24
00:00:51,719 --> 00:00:53,750
这是看涨的市场结构

25
00:00:53,750 --> 00:00:55,670
因为传统板块一般

26
00:00:55,670 --> 00:00:57,509
而科技股大涨的时候

27
00:00:57,509 --> 00:00:59,810
牛市的基础较为牢靠

28
00:00:59,810 --> 00:01:02,990
formal情绪替代了之前的恐慌情绪

29
00:01:02,990 --> 00:01:05,819
但又还没有到极度贪婪的阶段

30
00:01:05,819 --> 00:01:10,079
恐慌贪婪指数在极高和极低的时候有指导意义

31
00:01:10,079 --> 00:01:12,239
如果到了极贪婪区间

32
00:01:12,239 --> 00:01:14,219
就会提示市场过热

33
00:01:14,219 --> 00:01:16,400
目前只是处于贪婪区间

34
00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:18,509
还有进一步贪婪的空间

35
00:01:25,599 --> 00:01:27,920
基本上这事儿就差不多了

36
00:01:32,430 --> 00:01:36,629
对他在职期间装修美联储大楼超过预算的调查

37
00:01:36,629 --> 00:01:39,340
主要是为了迫使它降低利率

38
00:01:41,700 --> 00:01:43,789
再逼他也没有用了

39
00:01:43,789 --> 00:01:47,808
另外国会坚持要先解决了鲍威尔的调查

40
00:01:50,879 --> 00:01:53,159
接下来需要工作交接

41
00:01:53,159 --> 00:01:57,409
这不仅保全了鲍威尔作为联储主席离任时的名誉

42
00:01:57,409 --> 00:02:01,590
也避免了新旧交替期间出现不必要的法律动荡

43
00:02:01,590 --> 00:02:05,390
因此这两件事存在一定的关联

44
00:02:05,829 --> 00:02:07,909
市场欢迎这样的消息

45
00:02:07,909 --> 00:02:09,469
因为不调查了

46
00:02:09,469 --> 00:02:11,930
对美联储独立性有帮助

47
00:02:11,930 --> 00:02:15,969
美联储独立性被看作是全球金融体系的基石

48
00:02:15,969 --> 00:02:17,069
对股市

49
00:02:17,069 --> 00:02:19,949
债券和汇率稳定至关重要

50
00:02:19,949 --> 00:02:21,669
政客4年一届

51
00:02:21,669 --> 00:02:24,270
最好就是降息印钞票

52
00:02:24,270 --> 00:02:26,729
人为的短期繁荣没有关系

53
00:02:26,729 --> 00:02:29,009
只要能有选票就可以了

54
00:02:29,009 --> 00:02:30,870
这种天然的短视

55
00:02:30,870 --> 00:02:32,770
如果放在货币政策上

56
00:02:32,770 --> 00:02:35,889
很容易导致经济走向长期通胀

57
00:02:36,210 --> 00:02:40,800
美联储理事会成员的任期和政治选举周期是错配的

58
00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:42,360
任期还特别长

59
00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:44,419
目的就是避免政治影响

60
00:02:44,419 --> 00:02:49,379
坚持美联储在物价稳定和充分就业上面的两个工作目标

61
00:02:49,379 --> 00:02:51,360
美联储除了利率决定

62
00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:53,080
还有公开市场操作

63
00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:55,849
可以凭空印钱来购买国债

64
00:02:55,849 --> 00:02:58,770
这样的权利如果被政客所控制

65
00:02:58,770 --> 00:03:01,310
后果就是更严重的货币贬值

66
00:03:01,310 --> 00:03:03,479
货币的信用度下降

67
00:03:03,479 --> 00:03:08,150
美联储独立性和美国金融市场的公平性是相关的

68
00:03:08,150 --> 00:03:12,830
如果一个社交媒体的帖子就足以引起股市大幅波动

69
00:03:12,830 --> 00:03:16,740
那加息降息更是不能发个帖子来操纵

70
00:03:16,740 --> 00:03:20,769
否则市场将坐上忽高忽低的过山车

71
00:03:21,128 --> 00:03:25,429
鲍威尔任期内的最后一次议息会议将在下周召开

72
00:03:25,429 --> 00:03:29,659
下周三会议后记者会讲话是他的谢幕演出

73
00:03:29,659 --> 00:03:33,319
预计下周的议息会议利率将会维持不变

74
00:03:33,319 --> 00:03:35,360
政策变动幅度不大

75
00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:39,099
估计已平稳顺利交接的程序进行

76
00:03:39,530 --> 00:03:42,338
本周沃时参加了国会听证会

77
00:03:42,338 --> 00:03:46,519
本来市场期待落实能提供一些未来几年的政策方向

78
00:03:46,519 --> 00:03:48,889
但收获实际上有限

79
00:03:48,889 --> 00:03:52,289
沃实这个人对其货币政策的预测不足

80
00:03:52,289 --> 00:03:54,250
而且此人上台后

81
00:03:54,250 --> 00:03:56,539
预计会进一步减少预测

82
00:03:56,819 --> 00:04:01,319
有可能以后连议席会议之后的记者会他也不开了

83
00:04:01,319 --> 00:04:02,300
务实认为

84
00:04:02,300 --> 00:04:07,569
美联储每个季度提供点政图和未来路径预测往往是错的

85
00:04:07,569 --> 00:04:09,689
当美联储修正预测时

86
00:04:09,689 --> 00:04:11,650
市场会发生动荡

87
00:04:11,650 --> 00:04:14,770
他要引导市场去关注真实的经济数据

88
00:04:14,770 --> 00:04:18,300
减少美联储官员讲话对市场的干扰

89
00:04:19,519 --> 00:04:23,399
美联储官员公开讲话的频率可能会下降

90
00:04:23,399 --> 00:04:26,600
还有鲍威尔总是说数据说话

91
00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:29,500
等待数据再走一步看一步

92
00:04:29,500 --> 00:04:33,139
沃实则不一定会等待数据来做政策决定

93
00:04:33,139 --> 00:04:37,298
他认为数据后知后觉还经常被修正

94
00:04:37,298 --> 00:04:41,519
美联储应该根据未来趋势的预期先行调整

95
00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:47,439
市场的波动率将会加大

96
00:04:47,439 --> 00:04:50,040
因为预测不准确的情况下

97
00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:54,180
令市场意外的政策就会导致股市的大起大落

98
00:04:54,420 --> 00:04:56,220
欢送鲍威尔的同时

99
00:04:56,220 --> 00:04:59,240
我们要对握时时代的更加市场化

100
00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:02,408
更加情绪化的市场做好准备

101
00:05:02,769 --> 00:05:05,988
第二轮美伊谈判一直没有办法取得进展

102
00:05:05,988 --> 00:05:08,240
今天消息面有所改观

103
00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:11,658
美国特使将于明天前往巴基斯坦

104
00:05:15,278 --> 00:05:16,519
双方有可能

105
00:05:16,519 --> 00:05:19,209
但不确定会不会有直接谈判

106
00:05:19,209 --> 00:05:21,589
受或有谈判的消息影响

107
00:05:24,189 --> 00:05:26,730
霍尔木兹海峡双重封锁

108
00:05:26,730 --> 00:05:30,158
对全球能源的影响达到了极限了

109
00:05:30,158 --> 00:05:32,978
原油的多头风险还是比较大的

110
00:05:32,978 --> 00:05:35,238
万一消息面突然变化

111
00:05:35,238 --> 00:05:36,658
解除封锁了

112
00:05:36,658 --> 00:05:38,720
那多头可就要爆仓

113
00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:40,160
对于股市来说

114
00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:43,860
油价与股市的负相关关系可能逐渐减弱

115
00:05:43,860 --> 00:05:45,019
油价上涨

116
00:05:45,019 --> 00:05:46,839
股市可能不会下跌了

117
00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:48,100
油价暴跌

118
00:05:48,100 --> 00:05:50,069
股市则会上涨

119
00:05:50,069 --> 00:05:55,310
这是因为伊朗战争大跌的股市V型反转来得非常快

120
00:05:55,310 --> 00:05:58,550
给投资者抄底的时间窗口非常小

121
00:05:58,550 --> 00:06:00,600
一犹豫就错过了

122
00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:01,980
摩根大通说

123
00:06:01,980 --> 00:06:04,860
市场修复的速度越来越快了

124
00:06:04,860 --> 00:06:06,800
2000年互联网泡沫

125
00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:10,399
标普指数用了1000多天才收服失地

126
00:06:10,399 --> 00:06:15,038
2008年金融危机也用了两年多才创了新高

127
00:06:15,038 --> 00:06:20,480
2020年的新冠疫情下跌用了100多天就创新高

128
00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:26,079
今年3月份下跌11个交易日就回到高位啊

129
00:06:26,079 --> 00:06:31,548
大量算法交易和被动资金在跌到一定的程度就开始抄底

130
00:06:31,548 --> 00:06:34,779
投资者坚信长期投资肯定会赢

131
00:06:34,779 --> 00:06:37,439
便宜一点买就能够赚更多

132
00:06:37,439 --> 00:06:41,370
于是快速打折就引来抄底的钱恐慌

133
00:06:41,370 --> 00:06:42,329
割肉的少

134
00:06:42,329 --> 00:06:44,538
市场就会快速见底

135
00:06:44,778 --> 00:06:47,079
这个现象我也观察到了

136
00:06:47,079 --> 00:06:49,598
美股的V型反转越来越快

137
00:06:49,598 --> 00:06:51,699
黄金坑变浅了

138
00:06:51,699 --> 00:06:54,019
这会导致风险往后累积

139
00:06:54,019 --> 00:06:57,529
当股市的调整时间和空间不够充分时

140
00:06:57,529 --> 00:06:59,430
风险并不是消失了

141
00:06:59,430 --> 00:07:01,370
而是会先储存下来

142
00:07:01,370 --> 00:07:04,399
等以后找个机会再次爆发

143
00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:06,259
股市上涨很快啊

144
00:07:06,259 --> 00:07:09,178
这个时候没有人去管有没有风险

145
00:07:09,178 --> 00:07:13,519
唱空的持币观望的都早就拍断大腿了

146
00:07:13,519 --> 00:07:17,339
伯克希尔的阿贝尔接手了3000多亿现金

147
00:07:17,339 --> 00:07:19,579
其实就是踏空股市啦

148
00:07:19,579 --> 00:07:21,720
他什么事也没办法干

149
00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:24,240
现在估计压力是非常大

150
00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:27,040
最近的强势板块是半导体

151
00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:29,189
半导体涨疯啦

152
00:07:29,189 --> 00:07:31,689
费城半导体指数直线上涨

153
00:07:31,689 --> 00:07:33,430
别人是爬出了黄金坑

154
00:07:33,430 --> 00:07:36,500
而费半指数是一蹦三尺高

155
00:07:36,500 --> 00:07:40,500
指数内30只成份股基本上都是牛股

156
00:07:40,500 --> 00:07:45,170
连昨天刚刚吐槽的高通今年也涨了11.4%

157
00:07:45,170 --> 00:07:47,730
费办里最牛的是英特尔

158
00:07:47,730 --> 00:07:49,230
华人当了CEO

159
00:07:49,230 --> 00:07:51,639
完全改变了英特尔的命运

160
00:07:55,779 --> 00:07:59,959
芯片股里面暴涨的全部都是华人当CEO

161
00:07:59,959 --> 00:08:03,079
我建议高通也换一下人吧

162
00:08:03,470 --> 00:08:05,589
英特尔今天大涨23%

163
00:08:05,589 --> 00:08:07,850
原因是财报非常强劲

164
00:08:07,850 --> 00:08:09,220
困境反转

165
00:08:09,220 --> 00:08:12,240
英特尔一季度营收135.8亿

166
00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:14,040
每股收益29美分

167
00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:16,908
远远超过一致预测的一美分

168
00:08:16,908 --> 00:08:20,689
英特尔成功处理了原本预计会积压的库存

169
00:08:20,689 --> 00:08:24,000
这反映了下游需求非常旺盛

170
00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:28,079
数据中心用的各种硬件都有非常大的增量需求

171
00:08:28,079 --> 00:08:30,459
CPU作为必不可少的硬件

172
00:08:30,459 --> 00:08:32,730
也获得了大幅的需求增长

173
00:08:32,730 --> 00:08:35,230
GPU没有完全取代CPU

174
00:08:35,230 --> 00:08:40,548
反而因为AI基础设施建设带动了高性能CPU的爆发式需求

175
00:08:40,548 --> 00:08:47,669
今天英特尔AMD甚至连高通都得益于需求爆发而大涨

176
00:08:47,669 --> 00:08:50,610
AAMD今天大涨13.91%

177
00:08:50,610 --> 00:08:53,370
股价快速离开前期震荡区间

178
00:08:53,370 --> 00:08:56,200
目前已经在新的主升浪当中

179
00:08:56,200 --> 00:09:00,080
苏妈想要的600美元对应上万亿市值

180
00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:03,549
我认为达成目标只是时间问题

181
00:09:03,549 --> 00:09:06,409
高通今天也涨了11.12%

182
00:09:06,409 --> 00:09:08,669
这可是一件稀罕的事儿

183
00:09:08,669 --> 00:09:11,149
目前高通有两个AI芯片

184
00:09:11,149 --> 00:09:14,639
骁龙X1和X2用于计算机

185
00:09:14,639 --> 00:09:20,328
这使得他在PC领域与英特尔AMD竞争时能分一杯羹

186
00:09:20,328 --> 00:09:22,068
只不过股价不涨

187
00:09:22,068 --> 00:09:23,889
没有人理他

188
00:09:24,429 --> 00:09:26,370
就算涨了11%

189
00:09:26,370 --> 00:09:28,639
还是我账上了亏损股

190
00:09:28,639 --> 00:09:30,240
在公开账户上

191
00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:32,139
我持有高通60股

192
00:09:32,139 --> 00:09:34,159
买的时候买太高啦

193
00:09:34,159 --> 00:09:37,690
被砸晕了小半年回不了本儿

194
00:09:37,690 --> 00:09:38,870
今天的截图

195
00:09:38,870 --> 00:09:41,570
净值账户啊是19.5万

196
00:09:41,570 --> 00:09:43,779
盈利3202

197
00:09:43,779 --> 00:09:45,639
有观众评论说

198
00:09:45,639 --> 00:09:49,159
sunny要是拿着AMD早就25万了

199
00:09:49,159 --> 00:09:50,379
不至于还上不去

200
00:09:50,379 --> 00:09:52,200
20哎呀

201
00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:54,330
我的天哪哈

202
00:09:54,330 --> 00:09:56,809
不管是英特尔还是AMD

203
00:09:56,809 --> 00:10:00,419
都经历过长期的痛苦的整理过程

204
00:10:00,419 --> 00:10:05,589
现在看到的每一个牛股都曾经折磨人很长时间

205
00:10:05,589 --> 00:10:08,589
股价在调整的时候还能坚持下来的

206
00:10:08,589 --> 00:10:10,750
不是一件容易的事儿

207
00:10:10,750 --> 00:10:13,250
AMD我从来没有看空过

208
00:10:13,250 --> 00:10:17,570
早在50美元时就已经在我推荐的清单当中

209
00:10:17,570 --> 00:10:19,828
那个时候还是2020年

210
00:10:19,828 --> 00:10:24,750
我感觉有前瞻性并不是炒股赚几倍收益的充分条件

211
00:10:24,750 --> 00:10:28,899
另一个必要条件应该是忘记密码

212
00:10:28,899 --> 00:10:30,580
下周是重要的财报

213
00:10:30,580 --> 00:10:35,529
周五大科技股加上标普最牛的存储股将集中公布财报

214
00:10:35,529 --> 00:10:37,830
4月29号最为集中

215
00:10:40,210 --> 00:10:41,610
分别是微软

216
00:10:41,610 --> 00:10:43,129
亚马逊meta

217
00:10:43,129 --> 00:10:44,220
还有谷歌

218
00:10:44,220 --> 00:10:47,019
同一天还有SOFI公布业绩

219
00:10:47,019 --> 00:10:50,200
苹果和闪迪在30号公布财报

220
00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:55,860
五大科技股的业绩和股价表现

221
00:10:55,860 --> 00:10:57,950
决定了下周的美股表现

222
00:10:57,950 --> 00:11:02,019
其中谷歌的营业收入预计将保持两位数增长

223
00:11:02,019 --> 00:11:05,200
但是每股收益预计要环比下降

224
00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:08,090
分析师预期是2.69美元

225
00:11:08,090 --> 00:11:11,730
谷歌的云业务增长速度需要超过50%

226
00:11:11,730 --> 00:11:14,429
否则容易成为抛售理由

227
00:11:14,710 --> 00:11:19,509
此外资本支出预计1750亿到1850亿

228
00:11:19,509 --> 00:11:21,990
已经是公布过的数据啦

229
00:11:21,990 --> 00:11:25,889
巨额资本支出是不是会构成投资者砸盘理由

230
00:11:25,889 --> 00:11:27,409
还要观察

231
00:11:27,409 --> 00:11:31,960
我个人认为谷歌自身的人工智能已经成为行业龙头

232
00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:35,480
谷歌还投资了ANTHROPIC等核心大模型

233
00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:38,409
进行战略性和防御性投资

234
00:11:38,409 --> 00:11:40,970
AI时代一定少不了谷歌

235
00:11:40,970 --> 00:11:43,490
我预计财报如果导致下跌

236
00:11:43,490 --> 00:11:45,029
则是抄底机会

237
00:11:45,029 --> 00:11:46,610
如果财报大涨

238
00:11:46,610 --> 00:11:48,828
那就没有买入机会了

239
00:11:48,828 --> 00:11:51,009
微软的业绩预计稳健

240
00:11:51,009 --> 00:11:54,240
市场会关注azure云业务增速

241
00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:57,328
上次季报就是因为这个而大跌的

242
00:11:57,328 --> 00:12:02,389
另外还要关注微软在人工智能抠pilot的订阅用户增长率

243
00:12:02,389 --> 00:12:06,539
以及数据中心又要花多少钱投资等等

244
00:12:06,779 --> 00:12:08,820
因为一季度微软跌了不少

245
00:12:08,820 --> 00:12:10,419
爆过一次雷之后

246
00:12:10,419 --> 00:12:13,549
财报再次爆雷的机会有所下降

247
00:12:13,549 --> 00:12:16,990
meta在数字广告份额上超过了谷歌

248
00:12:16,990 --> 00:12:20,889
因此一季度营业收入可能会超过预期

249
00:12:21,250 --> 00:12:24,129
亚马逊的财报也是重点看云业务

250
00:12:24,129 --> 00:12:26,409
苹果则没有什么亮点

251
00:12:26,409 --> 00:12:29,399
没有亮点可能就是最大的亮点

252
00:12:29,399 --> 00:12:32,259
当别人大规模扩张资本支出时

253
00:12:32,259 --> 00:12:36,299
苹果不跟风的找一个人工智能模型合作的

254
00:12:36,299 --> 00:12:38,879
反而会让投资者放心

255
00:12:39,450 --> 00:12:41,309
财报好不一定大涨

256
00:12:41,309 --> 00:12:43,960
财报不好也不一定大跌

257
00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:46,519
但是如果一家公司财报好

258
00:12:46,519 --> 00:12:47,679
持续增长

259
00:12:47,679 --> 00:12:49,799
长远看就是会涨的

260
00:12:49,799 --> 00:12:51,460
短期会折磨人

261
00:12:51,460 --> 00:12:54,879
长期趋势才会反映公司的基本面好

262
00:12:54,879 --> 00:12:56,419
今天的节目就分享到这里

263
00:12:56,419 --> 00:12:57,600
感谢大家收看

264
00:12:57,600 --> 00:12:58,899
祝大家周末愉快

265
00:12:58,899 --> 00:13:00,879
我们下期节目再见拜拜

共 1 条，按点赞数排序。

采集完成，该视频无弹幕