投资的奥秘

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今天有个会员兄弟分享了他两次腰斩的经历

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我给大家讲一下普通人怎么样避免腰斩

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避免亏钱

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首先呢这个兄弟呢他开始买的数字货币

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听这个网上的人讲啊

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某个公司不错

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然后贸然买入

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结果他很快腰斩了

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腰斩之后呢

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他在三点前卖了

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然后在高点买入小米

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但是这小米从60跌到了30又要来了

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这是他短短的一年内两次段经历

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然后他刷到我的视频

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然后给我讲了他的经历之后

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然后问我啊

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我要买哪个股票

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我没有告诉他代码

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我说今天我来告诉你

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小资金几10万的人怎么样赚钱

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首先第一个呢你买任何股票

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你首先要投资一个收益啊

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就像刚才我送我儿子来这边打球啊

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这边有一个墨西哥的批发市场

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你在批发市场租了个摊位啊

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这个摊位穿什么这摊位啊

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30万包含了租金

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包含了装修

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包含了所有的货物

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什么30万好

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你每年销售额100万

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十个点的净利润多少年回本

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一年赚10万

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3年回本

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对不对

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好了

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3年回本

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你的平均年化咱们上哪看平均啊啊

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这就是投资的逻辑

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投资给这个在商场一模一样

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但是投资难在哪里呢

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这个钱如果他不分给你

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你是没有办法拿到任何的利润的

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就是他赚你钱

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不给你分

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你没办法

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他如果不给你分钱

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你赚什么估值的钱

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那怎么赚估值钱呢

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你如果一个生意3年回本

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你给他多少

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估值

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三倍的估值

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3年回本

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十倍的估值

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10年回本

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如果10年十倍的估值

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这公司多少钱呢

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你一年赚10万

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十倍估值好

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这个摊位只卖100万

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卖100万

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你一年赚10万不就10年回本吗

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是不是这个逻辑

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所以呢你在买任何公司的时候

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你要考虑几个因素

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第一个这个公司一年赚多少钱

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第二个这个公司该给多少倍估值

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第三个这个公司在行业的平均的估值是多少

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第四个这个公司它分不分红

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他是不是分红回购

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是不是有普通红包的打算

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所以呢这些才是决定你的利润

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你真正赚到筹的钱是什么

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是分红的钱

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是行业估值提升的钱

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是你在这家公司

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因为看中了这家公司的商业模式

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管理层

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包括他所有的在这个行业里面的商业文化

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企业文化啊

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然后呢股东的意识

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管理层的效率啊

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包括在竞争中能够活下来的一些本质

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这个才是你真正赚到的钱

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各位只要内在价值

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所以说你在买入任何公司的时候

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你首先要想的是这家公司

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它有没有足够的那价值

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我们也可以叫安全边际

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就是你买的那一刹那就决定了你的收益

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就像找一个女朋友结婚一样

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你在跟一个女人结婚一刹那

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决定你未来的家庭的幸福传承

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她不是因为结了婚变的事

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她就是这种人

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你找个员工

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这个员工能给你带来多少的利润

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是你的招财一刹那决定的不是来了公司

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你做一个生意赚钱难度有难度大有小

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是你决定做生意的时候

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而不是做了之后

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就比如说我若带有出身的

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我做VIVOOPPO小电台

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美帝九幺斯沃尔做了30个代理

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我做了15年

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我就立马转自主品牌了

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14年底转的

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我到19年把代理品牌办都逛完了

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只保留了一个小天才

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小天才不压货款吗

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我只是我只是卖

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我跟我压毛一毛钱

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各位今天来了

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兄弟做手机一年还要做几十个亿

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亏了4年了

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各位34年了

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一年做好几十个亿啊

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活到19年

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我把手机关掉了

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我今天在路上

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我还跟他聊

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我说兄弟几十几十个亿啊

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猴子大几千万上亿的

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你亏钱图啥呢

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他说我我做了十几年了呀

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我做了十五二十年了

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我我我我有感情呀

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我员工跟我干了十几年了呀

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我说不是你有感情

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是你不知道之后关了之后干嘛

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你也不知道这个钱拿过来之后

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能不能比手机更便

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因为你自动手机的销售我不一样

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我从一个代理品牌做了30个B站品牌

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一个代理商的老老板转型做品牌去了

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我的工作内容变了

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我从原来的找工厂谈政策

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拼效率

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拼价格

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拼渠道

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拼正品

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拼经营

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拼多转率

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变成了拼开发

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我变成了一个产品经理

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我从2014年

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我开发了无数的爆款

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最好的单月利润三四千万

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成立一个单品

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一个月的净利润

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然后呢我就膨胀了

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我就开工厂去了

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我忽略了一个

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做产品开发和生产是两个不同的概念

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开发和生产问管大学生管工人两个概念

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管聪明的人跟管一帮傻子两个概念

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但是我盲目自大

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我认为我的供应商都很菜鸡

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我认为这些土老帽做不出好东西

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只有我对

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我在工厂干了10年

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把我的头发全干平了

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这就是你的能力强

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我很擅长发掘机会

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我很擅长串联机会

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但是我不擅长拧螺丝钉

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我拧不动

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我拧的效率很低

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我拧了我就火大

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因为拧螺丝钉的附加值太低了

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所以我昨天给我工厂的供应商

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合作了十几年的供应商啊

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他原来跟我合作的时候是八个人

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现在是行业最大的建设国工厂

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干了十几年

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还把他干到最大了

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我们俩聊天

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然后我跟你讲这个行业做到什么程度了

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我们前两年一个锅挣一块钱

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一年做几百万台

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到现在一块钱都挣不到了

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为啥呢

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因为这个锅一个锅的成本涨了10%

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但我们零售价涨不上来

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一个锅不多

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我们成本一百四一百五

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涨了十几块钱

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穷线翻倍

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就电源线里面的铜线翻倍

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塑料翻倍

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铝翻倍

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里面的加热管都是铝的都翻倍

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但是流水线长上了

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为啥呢

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因为低价的还是很多

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很多工厂他不交税

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他完全是零成本运作

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就像我现在做IP一样

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零成本运作

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你谁也比不过我成本

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我们员工正规社保

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正规纳税正规发票

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所以我的成本就很高

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但是我的品牌力拉不上来

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我也涨

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但涨了之后相当下滑

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所以我的策略很简单

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哼为此呵只卖赚钱的

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减少减少开支哼提升毛利

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缩小规模

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各位这就是投资啊

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兄弟们

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所以你今天在投资的时候

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你要想明白这个行业

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这不就那个兄弟买小米一样

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我讲了多少小米

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你们往前翻一下小米

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我讲了很多支小米

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我做手机做了十几20年

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VIVOOPPO代理商到了一年之后

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手机代理商根本赚不到钱

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所以今天来了手机代理商

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我该讲

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我说你赚不到钱

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但是他为什么还要做

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以及这个手机行业的人为什么看不出来

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因为他没有像我一样不断的转型

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跟你要不断的转你的能力圈

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想扩大

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你从一个渠道商变成了一个产品开发商

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到一个供应链管理到一个全球化

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你每一个转型你的能力要求不一样

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我讲小米的时候

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我也讲这家公司会腰斩

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为什么腰斩呢

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因为它的利润一定会大幅下滑

238
00:06:50,990 --> 00:06:52,250
他的品类太多了

239
00:06:52,250 --> 00:06:53,970
很多人说做做做汽车

240
00:06:53,970 --> 00:06:54,889
提升它的品牌力

241
00:06:54,889 --> 00:06:55,928
不可能的

242
00:06:55,928 --> 00:06:56,848
我讲的很清楚

243
00:06:56,848 --> 00:06:58,088
我这是个存量市场

244
00:06:58,088 --> 00:07:00,620
存量市场你又做的最难的

245
00:07:00,620 --> 00:07:04,699
家电手机汽车最经激烈的就这三个品类

246
00:07:04,699 --> 00:07:06,889
全球所有的行业里面

247
00:07:06,889 --> 00:07:09,370
没有比这三个品的竞争概念的巨头太多了

248
00:07:09,370 --> 00:07:11,810
家电美的海尔格力

249
00:07:11,810 --> 00:07:13,870
海信TCL志高

250
00:07:13,870 --> 00:07:15,089
奥克斯都被干废了

251
00:07:15,089 --> 00:07:15,709
那是干废的

252
00:07:15,709 --> 00:07:17,038
士高都干死了

253
00:07:17,038 --> 00:07:19,959
但是活下来的这些巨头成本又低

254
00:07:19,959 --> 00:07:20,899
又有钱

255
00:07:20,899 --> 00:07:21,598
供应链又好

256
00:07:21,598 --> 00:07:22,610
渠道又好

257
00:07:22,610 --> 00:07:26,589
而且这些行业做了他妈五周年十倍PE17个点

258
00:07:26,589 --> 00:07:28,970
每利5.7个点的股息率

259
00:07:28,970 --> 00:07:30,129
你咋跟他玩

260
00:07:30,129 --> 00:07:31,370
欠供应商1000多个亿

261
00:07:31,370 --> 00:07:32,990
不用拿自己的钱

262
00:07:33,430 --> 00:07:36,230
你在家电里面给美的格力pk价格

263
00:07:36,230 --> 00:07:37,709
你比不赢它价格

264
00:07:37,709 --> 00:07:39,389
TCL超便宜

265
00:07:39,389 --> 00:07:41,800
TCL面板都自己做

266
00:07:42,279 --> 00:07:43,658
长虹好便宜

267
00:07:43,658 --> 00:07:44,738
志高超便宜

268
00:07:44,738 --> 00:07:45,718
奥格斯超便宜

269
00:07:45,718 --> 00:07:48,238
你说你你你小米再多价格你做不过它

270
00:07:48,238 --> 00:07:50,718
因为它质量他都放第三位对吧

271
00:07:50,718 --> 00:07:52,990
你做品质你做不过格力

272
00:07:52,990 --> 00:07:54,670
他专做空调对吧

273
00:07:54,670 --> 00:07:55,709
你做全球化

274
00:07:55,709 --> 00:07:56,550
你做不过海尔

275
00:07:56,550 --> 00:07:58,689
海尔泰全球50%多的份额

276
00:07:58,689 --> 00:07:59,980
美国好几个工厂

277
00:07:59,980 --> 00:08:01,899
美国南美洲每个地方都有好几个工厂

278
00:08:01,899 --> 00:08:03,139
俄罗斯都有好几个工厂

279
00:08:03,139 --> 00:08:05,579
你美帝也是45%的销售额来自于美国

280
00:08:05,579 --> 00:08:06,779
来自于全球化

281
00:08:06,779 --> 00:08:07,860
所以你小米第一个

282
00:08:07,860 --> 00:08:08,740
你等家电身上

283
00:08:08,740 --> 00:08:10,019
你跟他抢绝对抢不赢

284
00:08:10,019 --> 00:08:11,660
所以你的销量一定会大幅下滑的

285
00:08:11,660 --> 00:08:12,579
第二个汽车

286
00:08:12,579 --> 00:08:14,019
你看国内汽车改成啥样了

287
00:08:14,019 --> 00:08:15,769
你说价格你比不过比亚迪

288
00:08:15,769 --> 00:08:16,649
你做全球

289
00:08:16,649 --> 00:08:17,089
你做越野

290
00:08:17,089 --> 00:08:18,410
你坐不过长城是吧

291
00:08:18,410 --> 00:08:20,819
你做这个科技是吧

292
00:08:20,819 --> 00:08:22,019
你做这个全球化

293
00:08:22,019 --> 00:08:22,939
你也做不过极客

294
00:08:22,939 --> 00:08:23,939
你还有新势力

295
00:08:23,939 --> 00:08:25,560
三家也是你青年才俊

296
00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:27,279
所以你这个赛道又是超卷

297
00:08:27,279 --> 00:08:29,860
你又没有人家传说的FSD超级卷

298
00:08:30,860 --> 00:08:32,220
你再说手机

299
00:08:32,220 --> 00:08:34,000
你雷你雷总最牛逼

300
00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:35,419
手机行业竞争多大

301
00:08:35,419 --> 00:08:37,139
你去看一下手机行业

302
00:08:37,139 --> 00:08:41,129
各位手机行业今年的竞争高到什么程度

303
00:08:41,129 --> 00:08:44,200
华为不涨价不涨价

304
00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:46,240
各位手机一个内存涨了30倍

305
00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:47,730
华为不涨价

306
00:08:48,009 --> 00:08:49,289
部长要什么概念呀

307
00:08:49,289 --> 00:08:51,529
华为现在是中国的手机的占有率第一名

308
00:08:52,929 --> 00:08:54,769
因为今天做华为的兄弟刚来了

309
00:08:54,769 --> 00:08:57,649
我刚看他李耀文第一名20%带有率

310
00:08:57,649 --> 00:08:58,690
连苹果都看不明白

311
00:08:58,690 --> 00:09:00,679
为啥它不涨价呀

312
00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:01,799
他还降价呀

313
00:09:01,799 --> 00:09:02,720
你怎么搞他呀

314
00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:04,100
你的成本增加了300

315
00:09:04,100 --> 00:09:05,419
人家还降价

316
00:09:05,419 --> 00:09:06,659
你怎么搞

317
00:09:06,659 --> 00:09:08,340
第二个苹果也不知道

318
00:09:08,340 --> 00:09:09,519
家也叫你啊

319
00:09:09,519 --> 00:09:10,360
你怎么搞的

320
00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:14,889
苹果的这个你现在安卓的旗舰机跟苹果的

321
00:09:14,889 --> 00:09:16,429
苹果的新款手机不一样

322
00:09:16,429 --> 00:09:17,710
价了人家的配置

323
00:09:17,710 --> 00:09:18,629
人家的品牌力

324
00:09:18,629 --> 00:09:20,490
人家的性价比比强多少呀

325
00:09:20,490 --> 00:09:22,649
所以你小米手机一样吧

326
00:09:22,649 --> 00:09:23,629
其他电压吧

327
00:09:23,629 --> 00:09:24,330
其他压吧

328
00:09:24,330 --> 00:09:26,360
而且都是大打气质

329
00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:27,360
最少要30%

330
00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:28,299
因为你看采访

331
00:09:28,299 --> 00:09:29,740
我觉得从第二阶段开始

332
00:09:29,740 --> 00:09:30,519
从从4月份开始

333
00:09:30,519 --> 00:09:31,559
一个季度最好下30%

334
00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:32,200
为啥嘞

335
00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:33,299
存量之争

336
00:09:33,299 --> 00:09:35,789
每一家都是生死存亡之战

337
00:09:35,789 --> 00:09:37,629
所以刚才那位兄弟说买小米的时候

338
00:09:37,629 --> 00:09:41,110
我说兄弟以我做了20年手机家电的经验

339
00:09:41,110 --> 00:09:41,750
告诉你

340
00:09:41,750 --> 00:09:44,110
这个赛道非常非常惨烈

341
00:09:44,110 --> 00:09:45,669
不叫激烈惨烈

342
00:09:45,669 --> 00:09:47,590
我做了20年

343
00:09:47,590 --> 00:09:49,159
我太清楚了

344
00:09:49,159 --> 00:09:51,340
真的为了一块钱打的头破血流

345
00:09:51,340 --> 00:09:52,960
为了一块钱拼得你死我活

346
00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:54,299
为了一块钱

347
00:09:54,299 --> 00:09:57,470
大家真的是都不带睡觉的

348
00:09:57,470 --> 00:09:59,210
呵呵没日没夜的干

349
00:09:59,210 --> 00:09:59,750
各位

350
00:09:59,750 --> 00:10:01,169
这就是这个行业的惨状

351
00:10:01,169 --> 00:10:04,309
所以你买了这个行业第一天开始

352
00:10:04,309 --> 00:10:06,809
意味着你就没日没夜的盯着

353
00:10:06,809 --> 00:10:08,450
心惊胆战的看着

354
00:10:08,450 --> 00:10:10,009
所以咱刚才买小米的讲

355
00:10:12,769 --> 00:10:13,570
市值收20倍

356
00:10:13,570 --> 00:10:14,529
去年变成了200亿

357
00:10:14,529 --> 00:10:16,370
利润的时候变成了40倍了

358
00:10:16,370 --> 00:10:18,490
所以你不懂这个行业最好别碰

359
00:10:18,490 --> 00:10:21,509
还有一些人说哎呀你你你你讲商品的时候

360
00:10:21,509 --> 00:10:22,389
15块一奖

361
00:10:22,389 --> 00:10:25,450
对不是15块时奖是15块钱

362
00:10:25,450 --> 00:10:27,450
我讲过我说15块的时候

363
00:10:27,450 --> 00:10:29,470
还有200多块的腾讯

364
00:10:29,470 --> 00:10:31,169
你选哪一个对不对

365
00:10:31,169 --> 00:10:32,690
15块小米和210腾讯

366
00:10:32,690 --> 00:10:33,669
你选哪一个

367
00:10:33,669 --> 00:10:34,429
对不对

368
00:10:34,429 --> 00:10:35,370
小米翻倍

369
00:10:35,370 --> 00:10:37,629
但是腾讯翻了两倍还多呀

370
00:10:37,629 --> 00:10:39,250
现在腾讯是500多元

371
00:10:39,250 --> 00:10:43,649
更好的是去年这个时候谷歌是130呀

372
00:10:43,649 --> 00:10:45,809
现在多少330元

373
00:10:45,809 --> 00:10:49,230
所以你不是说不买小米没得选

374
00:10:49,230 --> 00:10:51,970
我们与其赚一倍

375
00:10:51,970 --> 00:10:52,970
辛苦的赚一倍

376
00:10:52,970 --> 00:10:54,409
为什么不躺着赚三倍呢

377
00:10:54,409 --> 00:10:56,470
所以他很多人理解不了这个逻辑

378
00:10:56,470 --> 00:10:57,980
因为我们有所选

379
00:10:57,980 --> 00:10:59,480
我们有选好的能力

380
00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:01,200
我们有更好的机会

381
00:11:01,200 --> 00:11:04,009
我干嘛要和你抢更差的机会呢

382
00:11:04,009 --> 00:11:05,250
所以呢你做投资

383
00:11:05,250 --> 00:11:07,210
你想明白第一个投本周期

384
00:11:07,210 --> 00:11:10,299
第二个加工资哼股东回报的意思

385
00:11:10,299 --> 00:11:11,100
还有他的护城河

386
00:11:11,100 --> 00:11:13,580
第三个这个行业是不是足够性感

387
00:11:13,580 --> 00:11:15,379
是不是一个很好的商业模式

388
00:11:15,379 --> 00:11:16,580
第四个是什么呢

389
00:11:16,580 --> 00:11:18,220
就是你买的一定要便宜

390
00:11:18,220 --> 00:11:19,179
就不便宜

391
00:11:19,179 --> 00:11:20,460
不买就这么简单

392
00:11:20,460 --> 00:11:21,779
钱放那也不买

393
00:11:21,779 --> 00:11:22,539
你亏不了

394
00:11:22,539 --> 00:11:24,340
但是买错了

395
00:11:24,340 --> 00:11:26,039
你只能痛苦的亏钱

396
00:11:26,039 --> 00:11:28,259
所以这也是今天很多兄弟来拜访我的时候

397
00:11:28,259 --> 00:11:29,068
我跟他们讲

398
00:11:29,068 --> 00:11:31,208
我说与其痛苦的亏钱

399
00:11:31,208 --> 00:11:32,849
不如躺着睡觉

400
00:11:32,849 --> 00:11:33,788
啥也不干

401
00:11:33,788 --> 00:11:35,149
这就是投资的奥秘

402
00:11:35,149 --> 00:11:37,820
这也是投资不亏钱的奥秘

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