新能源汽车拖累小米

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小米ADR从最高点41跌到了21

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小米的港股呢从60多啊

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跌到了33

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基本上都腰斩了

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这个也是我从去年到现在啊

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一直分析的大概率腰斩的原因有三个

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第一个呢就是它的三个产品线

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新能源汽车今年压力巨大

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你看一下新能源汽车

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无论是龙头比亚迪啊

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还是这个新势力啊

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小新小鹏啊

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理想未来基本上都跌了个40%啊

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甚至70%

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那小米呢其实也不例外啊

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因为今年新能源汽车无疑是存量之争啊

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你看新能源汽车今年出现什么问题呢

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原材料全在涨啊

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比如说汽车里面的主要成本啊

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电池啊在涨价

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你看一下铝在涨价啊

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用的最多的铜也翻了好几倍啊

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再看一下芯片也在暴涨

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然后所有的产品成本都在上涨

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但是呢零售价呢没怎么涨

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反而呢库存还在减值

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这就是之前讲的哈

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就小米这个供不应求的模式呢很快就被打破啊

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因为无论是退订啊还是库存呐

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最终都会降价销售

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但实际上和我们预想的差不多啊

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小米的新能源汽车呢

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最终的估值呢可能是负资产啊

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这个呢也是之前一直分析的啊

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很多兄弟说非常看好啊

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新能源汽车

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其实我一直在分析

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我是新能源汽车

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肯定是小米的减肥项啊

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这个也是从去年啊小米开始出来新款车的时候

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我就分析过

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结果呢还被很多兄弟吐槽啊

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投诉举报

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实际上你今天看到了啊

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小米很多新浪汽车现在已经成为累赘了啊

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因为这个行业实际上是个存量市场

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而且呢四个轮子的生意呢不是什么好生意

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商业模式极差啊

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不用说投入大

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利润低啊

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还有一个呢就是这个东西呢一袋跟不上

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那就是代代都跟不上

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因为你的这个风险太大了对吧

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咱举个例子啊

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比如说你你卖个几10万台啊

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一旦压住库存

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那几百亿放那里了

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但是问题是你赚那几百亿

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你卖多少车啊

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中国的所有的汽车加起来啊

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没有丰田一家利润高

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这是因为这个价格太低了

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那第二个呢就是小米的主要增长来源呢

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就是来自于家电

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嘉定的行业呢

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今年也这两年很惨

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那你看一下行业巨头啊

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无论是美帝啊

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海尔格力海信啊

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TCL基本上都在十倍左右PE1啊

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甚至来讲有的都破净了

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它原因是什么呢

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因为家电也遇到心暖器的问题

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原来还在涨啊

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家电里面

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比如空调里面的铜啊

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已经基本上翻倍了

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但是呢你可以发现空调零售价呢也没涨啊

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反而呢你看拼多多啊

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还有很多渠道还打折卖

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为啥呢

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库存太大了

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因为现在因为这个空调呢厂家可以提价

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但经销商提不了价啊

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你可以看下格力的空调啊

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甚至来讲他很多都是1000多块钱

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比原来还便宜了

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原因是终端经销商的库存很大

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他需要资金周转

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只能甩货

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什么时候库存卖完

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什么时候价格能上来

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但什么时候能把库存卖完呢

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不知道

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所以呢那有经销商的可以加一层保护墙

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没有经销商的

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如果直营的呢

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像小米这种的反而更吃亏了啊

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因为你你涨价你卖不动

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看你降价你就亏钱

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没办法

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第三个呢就小米估值的主要核心啊

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就是手机啊

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手机这个事咱也讲过嘛

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我说手机的商业模式呢

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是小米的这个所有的商业品牌最好的

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因为他有这个啊软件服务啊

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还有IOT周边的销售

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但是问题是手机今年也不好

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第一第一季度啊

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就前两个月手机好像还下三四十%

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小米下滑最多的啊

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小米下滑最严重的原因是什么呢

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内存翻倍了啊

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你比如像苹果这种的一个手机五六千块钱啊

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比如说内存涨个100块钱啊

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减两个点利润

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零售价可以不涨

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那小米不行呀对吧

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你这个客单价才1000块钱

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那如果说手机的内存涨100块

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你的利润不到五个点

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你怎么办呢

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你要是涨100块卖不动

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你要是不涨

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亏50

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亏五个点

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所以左右为难

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所以你可以发现没有啊

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就是今年的市场呢

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但凡是品类多的

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SKO多的反而成为最吃亏的了对吧

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你反而能做的少的

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你像苹果呀

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像VIVOOPPO呀

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专注于品类的反而有优势

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你看VIVOOPPO现在都成为行业第一第二了

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为啥呢

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专注啊

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专注的话

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它全产业链加上全球化呢

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能够有效的分摊成本啊

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还得能把产品做点差异化出来啊

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从其他地方找点价格出来啊

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内存涨啊

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其他地方找补一下

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但是你sq1多

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品类越多

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你雷总再牛逼

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你也很难顾及到对吧

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方方面面

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这也是我去年在视频里面讲的

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我说啊

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这个啊再强的人呢也难难以去多条线开战啊

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你同时和家电和手机和新能汽车

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这些行业巨头去打

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你再强的人你也受不了

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所以呢小米呢

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你说它啊估值呢从这个啊十五十倍

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现在回到十几倍啊

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甚至来讲回到十倍

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你他是偶然是必然的啊

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如果说你懂这个行业啊

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你会分析估值

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你觉得它是必然的

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但如果说你不懂啊

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老是在用市梦率啊

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用梦想啊哈用想象力啊来想这个事呢

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那今年腰斩呢

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哈哈他又成偶然了

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所以呢投资这个事呢

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多聊点行业还是有必要的啊

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