美股旧巨头要遭殃了🥺NaNa说美股(2026.05.27)

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是5月27号周三

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美伊双方达成了初步协议草案

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美方承诺在所有战线停火60天

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WTI原油期货重挫近5%

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失守90美元大关

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大宗商品集体承压

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现货白银跌3%

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回落到75美元以下

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10年期美收益率呢也持续回落哈

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本周美债市场走势几乎完全跟随

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中东局势与国际油价波动

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和平预期

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大幅缓解了能源价格升势与通胀压力

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让投资者对今年年内降息预期呢重燃希望

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也给科技股的高估值减轻了压力

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但是再次与商品市场的资金回流

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并没有形成美股这一边的普涨

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反而进一步加剧了美股市场内部的

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结构性虹吸效应

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标普与纳指今天收盘基本持平

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道指小幅收涨

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板块行情分化

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下跌与上涨的股票数量几乎对半开

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比特币价格持续下滑

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coin glass数据显示

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最近24小时加密货币市场超过9万人爆仓

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报团的金额达到3.47亿美元

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标普500指数呢在7500点上方

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维持高位温和震荡

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高盛资金流团队警告

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标普500指数当前的盘口

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顶级账面流动性

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已经萎缩到944.5万美元

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较年初至今的均值低了24%

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处于一年回溯区间的第三十三百分位

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而本月月末就5月剩下这两个交易日

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养老金存在

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约140亿到200亿美元的每股净抛售需求

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这个数额其实并不大哈

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但是在当前市场流动性不断减弱

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机构持仓拥挤以及巨额IPO债基的背景之下呢

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可能会对市场造成比以往更大的冲击

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成为导致大盘短线剧烈震荡

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甚至触发阶段性回调的催化剂

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高盛认为

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当前动量领涨股就是AI硬件啦

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太空板块啦

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呃他们的追高性价比极低

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后续行情若要向上突破

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更可能有低配或者是滞涨板块的空头踩踏驱动

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目前繁育性板块的空头头寸

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已经堆积到极端水平

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医疗保健板块

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股票空头头寸的飙升到了30年来最高

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公用事业与必需消费品也都接近历史峰值

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这些板块的上涨风险持续积聚哈

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也就是说

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下一轮逼空行情

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可能会在这些滞涨或者落后板块中爆发

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若是资金迟迟不愿意从AI硬件中

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扩散到那些滞涨板块呢

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那大盘在做市商的正干嘛

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锁盘之下啊

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也不会暴跌

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但是呢会维持死气沉沉的这种横盘

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直到新的催化剂出现呃

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这才可能会这个再次走出方向

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富时罗素昨天宣布了一项重磅规则修改

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只要新上市公司的市值

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超过富时美国前500指数的门槛

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从上市第五个交易日起哈

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就可以获得快速准入指数的资格

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这打破了以往常规的季度审核限制

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纳斯达克此前已经推出了IPO之后

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15天就可以快速加入纳指的新规

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目前标普

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道琼斯公司也在紧锣密鼓地评估类似的修订

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官方对于规则修改的理由呢

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是让指数可以更及时地反映重大市场变化

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实际上是为6月12号即将上市的SPACEX

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以及后续的OpenAI on

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top pick等超级独角兽量身定制的绿色通道

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当这些几万亿市值的超级新巨头们

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在上市几天内就闪电加入各大指数的时候

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那全球几万亿美元的被动型ETF和指数基金呢

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将会被迫在这些股票合理市场定价还没有充分

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这个固化之前

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就在历史高位机械式的被迫追高买入

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这将会对现有的那些旧的巨头

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标普老权重股啦等等

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造成权重挤压与被动减仓抛压哈

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呃所以这几天大家可以看到

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而指数本身呢也将面临着前所未有的剧烈波动

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美股市场如今正处于一场结构性

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而且规模巨大的变革之中哈

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未来几年

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说不定美股指数内部会出现剧烈的资金迁移

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呃

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一批科技巨头可能会沦为像可口可乐

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宝洁那样的高分红蓝筹股

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而有另外一批新的巨头呢会起来取代他们

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其他个股方面

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特斯拉股价今天涨1.56%

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今天盘前的时候

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有媒体报道说

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马斯克曾与同事探讨过

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将SPACEX与特斯拉两家公司整合的可能性呃

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所以呢就关于这个

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马斯克最终会把两大核心企业合并为一的猜想

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迅速就在华尔街蔓延哈

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微博士大多透

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当然艾瑞斯趁热打铁就发布了研报

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断言两家巨头将会在2027年之前完成合并

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不过由于于前期特斯拉股价已经连续反弹

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而且这个合并的叙事有点过于遥远

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也不太确定

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所以呢市场在拉高之后出现了明显的观望资金

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太空板块也开始呈现分化的走势

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市场正在疯狂交易

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6月12号space x上市倒计时

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想要working club阿DW呃

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小月亮

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这几个呢得到资金抱团

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仍在享受龙头上市前的轿子行情

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而持有SPACEX股份的DEXYZ

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昨天上演了惊天跳水啊

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公司宣布计划增发10亿美元的股票

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公司目前市值才11.7亿美元哈

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等于是将自己市值翻了一倍

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这个与那个僵尸股MNTS如出一辙嘛

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就是赶在SPACEX实体上市之前

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趁着散户情绪高潮疯狂圈钱嗯

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一旦6月12号正规军SPACEX上市落地了

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那这些杂毛工具人

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将会面临流动性的彻底的枯竭哈

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当然钱全去买那个SPACEX了是吧

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pent跳

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如今都没人提起了

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前两年红到发紫

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中美散户们都为他疯狂啊

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打call的口号都喊到三百五百美元了

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结果今年以来这股票就好像去了缅北一趟

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两个腰子都被噶了哈

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突然就萎了嗯

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股价在年初一月份快速下跌之后呢

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就一直半死不活的呃

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公司正处于上市以来的最强业绩周期

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基本面没问题

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但是股价就是起不来

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主要原因还是高位杀估值

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消化前面两年的巨大涨幅

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同时呢也受到了整个软件板块的拖累

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很多人在他股价下跌中不断的抄底

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导致最后重仓套牢

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被迫当了时间的狱友

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就眼睁睁看着外面的半导体和AI硬件大牛市

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绝尘而去哈

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市场的叙事就像渣男爱你的时候

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什么估值太贵啦

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家长反对啦都无所谓

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但是不爱了就拔掉

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无情反弹是一定会反弹的哈

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就是可惜了

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前面这几个月站岗这个机会成本

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我发现啊

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普通散户呃

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其实并不适合玩巴菲特那个越跌越买

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左侧的这个打法

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因为老爸他子弹无限

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而咱们不是嘛

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左侧死砍极易消耗巨大的机会成本哈

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买入就下跌

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这心情其实很不舒服的嗯

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投机之王

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jc live more的顺势交易更适合咱们普通人

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就是右侧追涨和严格止损

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就最适合做那种大趋势行情

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如果破位了就走

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说明先前的判断出现了失误

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走势和预期的不一样

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就要及时纠错

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没有破位就一直拿着

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这样才不会半途卖废嗯

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网络安全软件公司ZSCALA股价今天重挫

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公司发布的第三财季其实还不错

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因为在大多数关键指标算都超出市场预期了哈

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但是他给出了第四财季营收指引不及预期

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净新增客户数量增速放缓

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唉这财报出来立刻就遭到了机构无情血洗

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股价单日跌超30%

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以盘中毫无承接迹象哈

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就自由落体了

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高估值软件股

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一旦前瞻故事破裂

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华尔街的那个惩罚远比对他过去业绩的奖励

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要残酷的多嗯

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股价短期内可能会向2023年5月的

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那个底部90美元附近去寻找支撑

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SMTC股价今天日内高开低走

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公司Q1业绩与Q2指引了都超于习

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净销售2.91亿美元

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同比增长16%

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净利润达到了2660万美元

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同比增长23%

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看营收与利润增速哈

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数据虽然是不错

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但还远称不上炸裂是吧

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由于这只股票站在AI基建风口

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年初以来呢已经累涨了约一百十三%

212
00:09:59,299 --> 00:10:02,370
就今天呃被利好兑现了哈

213
00:10:02,370 --> 00:10:04,570
如果AI硬件热度还在

214
00:10:04,570 --> 00:10:05,529
股价回落一下

215
00:10:05,529 --> 00:10:06,850
可能又再拉起来

216
00:10:06,850 --> 00:10:08,940
就像5月18号那天一样

217
00:10:08,940 --> 00:10:10,899
如果热度降温了

218
00:10:10,899 --> 00:10:13,639
那这个股票肯定就要挤一挤泡沫了

219
00:10:13,639 --> 00:10:18,259
移动出行软件公司VRRM股价今天崩了

220
00:10:18,259 --> 00:10:20,559
单日暴跌70.5%

221
00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:23,750
公司大幅下调了全年收益指引

222
00:10:23,750 --> 00:10:24,549
并表示

223
00:10:24,549 --> 00:10:28,889
核心大客户AVIBIS已经终止了与他的合同

224
00:10:28,889 --> 00:10:32,029
所以这个没有分散风险的单一垃圾股

225
00:10:32,029 --> 00:10:34,379
风险简直就是毁灭性的

226
00:10:36,139 --> 00:10:38,159
公司Q1季度营收与利润

227
00:10:38,159 --> 00:10:41,620
罕见的酸酸都没能够达到市场预期

228
00:10:41,620 --> 00:10:45,220
本来恒生科技情绪如今都已经够差了是吧

229
00:10:45,220 --> 00:10:46,480
这么烂的财报一出来

230
00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:47,899
股价立刻就跪了

231
00:10:47,899 --> 00:10:50,639
医疗器械巨头波士顿科学

232
00:10:50,639 --> 00:10:52,679
今年股价大跌12.5%

233
00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:55,059
触及52周新低

234
00:10:55,059 --> 00:10:56,779
领跌标普500指数哈

235
00:10:56,779 --> 00:10:59,620
公司CEO在这个行业会议上呢

236
00:10:59,620 --> 00:11:01,480
扔出了一个重磅炸弹

237
00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:05,769
就是说公司核心业务正面临短期阵痛

238
00:11:05,769 --> 00:11:09,519
明星产品watchman需求踩刹车

239
00:11:09,519 --> 00:11:13,399
这款产品长期以来使公司的王牌现金油

240
00:11:13,399 --> 00:11:16,379
此前一直保持近30%的高增速

241
00:11:16,379 --> 00:11:19,120
所以受到这种需求结构转变的影响

242
00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:21,539
今年公司第二和第三季度的营收

243
00:11:21,539 --> 00:11:23,200
预计将会基本持平

244
00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:26,679
短期内无法重现爆发式增长

245
00:11:26,679 --> 00:11:27,419
此外呢

246
00:11:27,419 --> 00:11:32,100
电生理业务市场份额被它的竞争对手们给蚕食

247
00:11:32,100 --> 00:11:34,399
虽然公司正在极力防守哈

248
00:11:34,399 --> 00:11:38,190
但是短期内遭遇了强烈的价格战和渠道竞争

249
00:11:38,190 --> 00:11:41,049
由于以上这两项阻力业务撞墙

250
00:11:41,049 --> 00:11:44,370
加上泌尿科外科业务不及预期

251
00:11:44,370 --> 00:11:47,549
管理层呢直接就给资本市场泼了一盆冷水

252
00:11:47,549 --> 00:11:51,519
预计今年第二季度将会是全年最艰难的季度

253
00:11:51,519 --> 00:11:54,559
并且还下调全年财务业绩指引

254
00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:57,919
把2026全年的有机净销售额增长预期

255
00:11:57,919 --> 00:12:01,730
从早前承诺的10.5%到11.5%

256
00:12:01,730 --> 00:12:05,289
大幅下调至6.5%到8%

257
00:12:05,289 --> 00:12:06,789
尽管波士顿科学

258
00:12:06,789 --> 00:12:09,929
依然还是这该领域的绝对的领导者哈

259
00:12:09,929 --> 00:12:12,820
而且公司刚刚在5月中旬宣布了

260
00:12:12,820 --> 00:12:16,200
20亿美元的加速股票回购计划

261
00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:19,519
就是在他的那个50亿美元回购计划的一部分

262
00:12:19,519 --> 00:12:23,620
但是华尔街无法容忍这么一个成长型的明星股

263
00:12:23,620 --> 00:12:24,259
出现

264
00:12:24,259 --> 00:12:27,720
核心产品环比零增长的指引

265
00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:31,789
公司CEO的大实话直接就打破了这个高增长幻觉

266
00:12:31,789 --> 00:12:33,950
引发了机构呢在这个月末

267
00:12:33,950 --> 00:12:37,850
流动性真空期的疯狂调仓与砍仓哈

268
00:12:37,850 --> 00:12:40,110
这股票也曾经是一个大牛股呀

269
00:12:40,110 --> 00:12:43,250
从2013年五六块钱涨到2025年

270
00:12:43,250 --> 00:12:45,200
峰值一百十美元呢

271
00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:47,159
然后就悬崖式下跌了

272
00:12:47,159 --> 00:12:49,710
目前的价格距离峰值已经腰斩

273
00:12:49,710 --> 00:12:53,480
这个股票当初在2004~2010年

274
00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:55,500
也曾跌去89%

275
00:12:55,500 --> 00:12:58,139
虽然咱们不能够刻舟求剑啦

276
00:12:58,139 --> 00:13:01,059
但是这也可以侧面的提醒大家

277
00:13:01,059 --> 00:13:04,190
即便是一只曾经的牛股

278
00:13:04,190 --> 00:13:05,350
股价腰斩

279
00:13:05,350 --> 00:13:08,828
也不能成为无脑抄底的唯一的理由哈

280
00:13:08,828 --> 00:13:11,188
circle也快回到财报前的低点了

281
00:13:11,188 --> 00:13:13,389
比特币最近行情不是低迷嘛

282
00:13:13,389 --> 00:13:16,320
也拖累这个加密板块一直起不来

283
00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:21,460
而且整个加密板块还被半导体板块持续吸血

284
00:13:21,460 --> 00:13:23,980
大家应该有注意到这个情况了吧

285
00:13:23,980 --> 00:13:25,299
就如高盛所说

286
00:13:25,299 --> 00:13:30,389
只有等AI硬件主力资金出现阶段性获利回调

287
00:13:30,389 --> 00:13:34,649
风险偏好重新寻找那些低位洼地的时候

288
00:13:34,649 --> 00:13:36,129
像加密板块啦

289
00:13:36,129 --> 00:13:38,568
还有超跌的那个软件板块

290
00:13:38,568 --> 00:13:42,408
才有望迎来真正轮动到位的逼空行情啊

291
00:13:42,408 --> 00:13:45,249
所以也可以少量布局一些啦

292
00:13:45,249 --> 00:13:48,779
嗯盘后几个明星科技股公布了财报

293
00:13:48,779 --> 00:13:51,259
迈威尔科技Q1营收24亿美元

294
00:13:51,259 --> 00:13:52,820
同比增长28%

295
00:13:52,820 --> 00:13:55,318
调整后每股收益80美分

296
00:13:55,318 --> 00:13:57,698
略好于预期的79美分

297
00:13:57,698 --> 00:14:00,519
预计第二季度营收同比增长35%

298
00:14:00,519 --> 00:14:02,799
预计整个2027财年

299
00:14:02,799 --> 00:14:05,419
营收增长呢将会逐季加数

300
00:14:05,419 --> 00:14:08,840
主要得益于数据中心业务的持续强劲表现

301
00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:09,679
财报不错

302
00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:10,919
指引也不错哈

303
00:14:10,919 --> 00:14:14,639
股价盘后上涨最亮眼的还是这个snowflake

304
00:14:14,639 --> 00:14:17,019
股价盘后飙升了30%呃

305
00:14:17,019 --> 00:14:18,289
吓死个人了

306
00:14:18,289 --> 00:14:20,929
公司Q1营收13.9亿美元

307
00:14:20,929 --> 00:14:22,470
同比增长33%

308
00:14:22,470 --> 00:14:25,500
调整后每股收益39美分嗯

309
00:14:25,500 --> 00:14:27,690
也好于预期的32美分

310
00:14:27,690 --> 00:14:31,090
剩余履约义务92.1亿美元

311
00:14:31,090 --> 00:14:32,629
同比增长38%

312
00:14:32,629 --> 00:14:35,320
本季度的新增六百十六位

313
00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:37,899
净客户同比增长38%

314
00:14:37,899 --> 00:14:40,080
公司上调了全年营收指引

315
00:14:42,940 --> 00:14:46,779
亚马逊AWS承诺投资60亿美元

316
00:14:46,779 --> 00:14:50,230
用于甘比特计算和人工智能支出

317
00:14:50,230 --> 00:14:52,289
这个财报虽然不错

318
00:14:52,289 --> 00:14:54,429
但是股价飙升32%

319
00:14:54,429 --> 00:14:55,629
有没有太夸张啦

320
00:14:55,629 --> 00:14:58,409
是不是这个大家弄错了

321
00:14:58,409 --> 00:15:02,000
以为这个是亚马逊要向他投资60亿

322
00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:03,179
而不是反过来

323
00:15:03,179 --> 00:15:05,360
其实是这个snowflake呃

324
00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:08,110
要向亚马逊投资60亿美元啊

325
00:15:08,110 --> 00:15:10,190
ServiceNow盘后下跌

326
00:15:10,190 --> 00:15:11,950
营收一百十一亿美元

327
00:15:11,950 --> 00:15:13,269
同比增长13%

328
00:15:13,269 --> 00:15:15,789
调整后每股收益3.88美元

329
00:15:15,789 --> 00:15:17,830
同比增长50%

330
00:15:17,830 --> 00:15:21,389
自有现金流实现66亿美元

331
00:15:21,389 --> 00:15:22,970
同比增长4%

332
00:15:22,970 --> 00:15:25,129
公司预计第二季度营收同比增长

333
00:15:25,129 --> 00:15:26,529
10%到11%

334
00:15:26,529 --> 00:15:28,370
而且上调全年营收直营

335
00:15:28,370 --> 00:15:29,620
这财报不错呀

336
00:15:29,620 --> 00:15:30,559
很赚钱呀

337
00:15:30,559 --> 00:15:32,539
股价怎么就硬不起来呢

338
00:15:32,539 --> 00:15:34,620
所以哈业绩是一方面

339
00:15:34,620 --> 00:15:37,500
主要其实还是要抓这个市场热度

340
00:15:37,500 --> 00:15:41,529
这资金重仓是往哪个方向攻击

341
00:15:41,529 --> 00:15:45,269
当前嗯市场盘面呢用一句话总结

342
00:15:45,269 --> 00:15:47,490
就是全场在失血

343
00:15:47,490 --> 00:15:49,029
局部在狂欢

344
00:15:49,029 --> 00:15:52,210
市场整体流动性其实一直在减弱

345
00:15:52,210 --> 00:15:55,370
活前就是流动资金啦变得非常的有限

346
00:15:55,370 --> 00:15:56,970
所以机构们的这个时候呢

347
00:15:56,970 --> 00:15:59,590
不敢把资金分散到消费制造

348
00:15:59,590 --> 00:16:04,190
地产等那些对宏观经济高度敏感的传统板块哈

349
00:16:04,190 --> 00:16:06,629
只能够选择抱团去炒作

350
00:16:06,629 --> 00:16:08,029
那些确定性最高

351
00:16:08,029 --> 00:16:10,059
尤其是想象空间最大

352
00:16:10,059 --> 00:16:14,399
而且有重大利好催化剂的那些绝对的核心股票

353
00:16:14,399 --> 00:16:17,539
导致多数板块呢都要死不活的

354
00:16:17,539 --> 00:16:19,659
只有AI硬件与太空板块

355
00:16:19,659 --> 00:16:23,759
这两个具有绝对起点效应的板块极其活跃

356
00:16:23,759 --> 00:16:27,559
这其实反映了大资金在当前市场

357
00:16:27,559 --> 00:16:32,700
风险偏好收紧下的抱团防御与非对称的博弈哈

358
00:16:32,700 --> 00:16:35,820
嗯接下来我们要关注的就是5月

359
00:16:35,820 --> 00:16:37,179
最后这两个交易日

360
00:16:37,179 --> 00:16:41,159
就本周周四周五养老金再平衡抛盘

361
00:16:41,159 --> 00:16:42,480
对标普500指数

362
00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:45,320
7481~7470

363
00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:49,269
就是这5日与10日均线支撑区间的测试

364
00:16:49,269 --> 00:16:52,769
同时呢对高位拥挤的AI硬件

365
00:16:52,769 --> 00:16:55,639
就最好挂好这个移动止盈

366
00:16:55,639 --> 00:16:58,919
以避免若是发生板块轮动的情况

367
00:16:58,919 --> 00:17:00,659
造成利润回吐行

368
00:17:00,659 --> 00:17:02,080
今天我们就说到这里

369
00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:04,150
那我们明天见拜拜

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