大回血了。【2026-04-15】

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哈喽大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是sunny

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今天是2026年4月15号星期三

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今天标普指数创历史新高

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上涨55.57点

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涨幅0.8%

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收盘7022.95点

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几个月以来首次突破历史高点

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7002

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刷新的数据

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最近我预测大盘正确率非常高

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我最早提出圆弧顶

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刚开始不太确定

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后来迅速锁定圆弧顶调整形态

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在指数跌破年线后

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又猜测V型反转

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昨天我预测今天会创新高

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结果就是创新高了

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要顺就一直顺哈

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说啥有啥

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所以突破创新高之后

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我预计标普指数将会进入一个

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不断创新高的模式

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去年4月黄金坑后涨了半年

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今年4月又一次黄金坑

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那不知道要涨多久

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但是接下来是易涨难跌

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指数不但创新高

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还连续上涨

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拒绝震荡和调整

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在过去11天V型反转中

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只有一天是小小的跌了0.11%

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其他十天有十根阳线天天上涨

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市场语言告诉我们

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现在就是大盘恢复强势了

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连纳指也创新高

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纳指今天高点2万4206点

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已经是史上最高

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纳指上涨

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说明科技股集体走强

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美股要整体走牛

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科技股要有担当

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当纳指是三个指数中最强势时

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美股整体往往会走牛

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当道指是三个指数中最强时

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提示资金正在避险

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股市往往会进入短期调整阶段

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那今天纳指最强

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所以我对后市较为乐观

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最近两周我还预测

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形态走好的话

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对大盘上涨是有帮助的

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这几天多次复盘

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这个从微观层面增加了看涨的信心

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今天我IBKR公开账户回血了7600

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45

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涨幅4.06%

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大幅跑赢大盘

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但从总的截图净资产来看

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今天19.5万

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其实并没有创新高

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我记得我这个账户的历史高点是22万左右

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年初数是21.1万

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标普和纳指创新高啦

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我的账户还离历史高点有10%左右的差距

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比年初数还略有小跌

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特斯拉今天大幅反弹

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微软和谷歌表现也不错

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所以数字回来了一些

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特斯拉今天给力大涨7.62%

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久旱逢甘霖

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好久没这么涨了

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特斯拉太久没有利好消息了

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今天来了一个马斯克发帖

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宣布公司完成了AI5芯片的流片

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流片的意思就是设计阶段已经结束

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下一步就进入生产环节了

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AI5芯片将由三星电子与台积电联合代工

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在美国生产

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马斯克对AI5的性能给出了非常激进的数据

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说是特斯拉芯片的里程碑

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算力是AI4的8~10倍

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内存192G带宽是上一代的五倍

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马斯克说

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单科AI5芯片相当于英伟达的H100双芯片

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配置

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可以挑战英伟达black ware架构

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AI5不再是为了FSD而设计

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还将成为机器人核心大脑

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本地运算不依赖云端算力

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AI5也将用于AI训练

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AI5芯片的流片啊

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让特斯拉从一个造车的

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变成了一个AI与半导体公司

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未来还有可能成为芯片巨头

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在马斯克手上

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特斯拉还是有很多新的进步

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难怪市场不按汽车销量来定股价

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大家都愿意高估值买特斯拉股票

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今天伊朗战争消息进一步缓和

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川普封锁霍尔木兹海峡后

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谈判成功的希望开始提升

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川普表示

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为期七周的战争即将结束

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不管是战场上还是海峡的控制权上

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美国都占据压倒性优势

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而且美国还大赚了一笔战争财

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油价这么高的情况下

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全球海上大型邮轮去中东空载而归

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马上掉头前往美国

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美国现在成了全球紧急加油站

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那些原来靠伊朗廉价原油的国家现在傻眼了

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能源进口成本大幅上升

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为期两周的停火协议很快就会到期

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目前停火协议有延长的可能

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但美国还没有正式同意巴基斯坦继续斡旋

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美伊两国有望重新回到谈判桌上

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时间可能是星期四或星期五

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地点仍然是伊斯兰堡

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伊朗可以说是一张好牌

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也没有

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只剩下嘴硬了

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原油现在运不出去

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断了财路

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谈判可能会低声下气的多

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所以可以预测

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二次谈判的条件可能会比较合理了

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伊斯兰堡第二次谈判

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伊朗会让步吗

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今天消息传闻

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伊朗提议将允许邮轮从霍尔木兹海峡的阿曼侧

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安全通过

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海峡的南岸是阿曼北岸

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是伊朗北岸

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伊朗侧的海峡水深

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所以游轮要从伊朗的这一侧通过

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不过伊朗提议邮轮从南侧通过

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也算是给自己找台阶下吧

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但是伊朗仍然觉得自己有谈判优势

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因为他们握有美国希望尽快转移的

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高浓缩铀库存

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还有他要控制霍尔木兹海峡

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成本比美国十几艘军舰

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加上士兵驻留在阿曼湾上面要低得多

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伊朗躲在山里面就可以发导弹

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成本显然更低

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伊朗可能还是会觉得自己有优势

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伊朗内部也有强硬派

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根本不同意妥协

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这也加大了谈判的难度

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伊朗是否会让步

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是否有可能达成一个川普满意的核协议

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仍存在巨大变数

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那么如果停火协议延长

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双方在经过多轮谈判达成协议

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对美股将是重大利好

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川普说

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战争将会结束

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美股将会繁荣

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而且已经繁荣了

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但是如果下周一又打起来

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美股有可能会再次回落

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即使回调

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人不太可能再次出现黄金坑啊

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黄金坑只会有一个

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谁会那么傻

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砸了一个坑

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让别人抄底

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又砸一个坑

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让别人赢两次呢

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昨天有报道称

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美联储收紧了购债

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货币有收紧趋势

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今天是美国报税截止日期

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美国税务居民要报完税

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该退税退税

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该补税的补税

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大量资金将从居民银行账户

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市场流动性短时间宽松

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这时就不再需要美联储再放水啦

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所以要防止流动性过剩

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美联储大幅缩减的短期国库券购买的额度

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美联储上半年大概率不会再降息

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短期放水的任务也已经完成

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货币宽松不再成为股市上涨的理由

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那么股市一直上涨

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钱从四面八方来

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主要还是美元资产是当前世界最安全品种

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现在全球就没几个安全的投资避风港

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亚洲有吗

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欧洲呢

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大洋洲呢

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全球资本拿着个地球仪转了一圈又一圈

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发现还是投美国吧

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比较靠谱

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美国资产要是崩了

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全球都得崩

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投哪一个都不安全

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美国资产上涨了

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别的地方还不一定跟着涨

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很快就要5月份了

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卧时还没有得到国会批准

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这事儿可能快了

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鲍威尔正常离任时间是5月15号

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正好还有一个月

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卧室的听证会在下周二

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预计很快会获得国会批准

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进入工作交接程序

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鲍威尔是离任不离港啊

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还能继续当理事

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结果德高望重的老包

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还能对货币政策产生影响

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卧室是个鹰派官员

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不喜欢量化宽松

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所以鲍威尔先一步缩减短债购债规模

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免得卧室一上来就猛踩刹车

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他们的斗法已经开始啦

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卧室自己钱很多啊

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1.3到2.6亿美元的身家

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包月也不穷

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他的资产可能有几千万美元

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所以也不管他们是鸽派还是鹰派

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本质上还是为资本服务

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美国银行和摩根士丹利今天披露了强劲的财报

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显示

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美国宏观经济还是非常乐观

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美国银行一季报营业收入303亿

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同比增长7%

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净利润86亿

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同比增长17.3%

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股票业务收入激增30%

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达到28亿

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美国银行的营收利润和前景指引都超过预期

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股价正在上升趋势当中

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就是股息率不到2%

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对银行股来说吸引力不足

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摩根士丹利一季报营收205.8亿

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每股收益3.43美元

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都超过预期

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其中交易业务产生的收入

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比预期高出近10亿美元

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股票交易收入增长25%

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达到51.5亿美元

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股市大涨大跌的证券交易量反而提升了

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从这个业务板块来看

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券商值得关注

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像ibcr robin hood

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因为股票业务收入增长是行业性的

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券商更直接利好股票业务增长

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IBK2是阳光财经的合作伙伴

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他的链接我放在视频下方评论区置顶了

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大家可以了解一下

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最近IBKR股价也是创新高了

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SHOPIFY今天反弹了8.3%

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摩根大通分析师最近重申了

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对shop股票的增持评级

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这只股是木头界持仓中的一只股

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性比较活

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加拿大有两只股是股王

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代表稳健价值股的皇家银行RBC和科技之王

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Shopify

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RBC比较稳

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shop是波动比较大

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SHOPIFY还是一支被认为是SAS的软件股

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正好在今年2月软件已死风潮中暴跌了

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今天软件股反弹

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投资者开始在反思

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软件股是不是有抄底的空间呢

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尤其是软件龙头微软带头见底

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我预测的360美元

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最低点和实际最低点的356美元

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只有微小的差距

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那之前那个360强支撑费是怎么得到的呢

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啊一说你马上就懂

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就是把屏幕放远一点

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K线图

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按周K线看长周期和大趋势

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这是微软周K线图的ma250

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蓝色的线

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上面每一个数值都是过去250周

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收盘价格的移动平均数

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250周

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差不多是5年的时间

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没有一个主力可以在这样的周期上面做图骗人

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微软上次在这条线下面应该是15年前了

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这15年来微软从未跌破这条线

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两个月前微软还在400多

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我说微软最多跌到360

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现在图形也走完了

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最低点356

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刚刚好是这条蓝色线上面止跌反弹

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如果视频的图看不清楚

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可以在软件里面看

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你就把它放大看看

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是不是非常精准的落在了支撑线上

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长周期的图准确率远远高于短周期的

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当我们试图抓住5分钟的涨涨跌跌时

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我们完全没有把握

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当我们看10年20年的趋势

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只要离屏幕远一点

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就可以对方向有初步的感觉

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此外微软在一季度回调1/3

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是科技巨头中最差的

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现在同级别的明星股要么在创新高

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要么快创新高了

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这跌的便宜的巨头

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也就吸引来了更多投资的眼光

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好今天的节目就分享到这里

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感谢大家收看

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我们下期节目再见

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拜拜

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