沃什明天要是摔杯为号，市场会不会一片血红？【2026-06-16】

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Hello

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大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是sunny

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今天是2026年6月16号星期二

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今天美股小幅回落

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标普指数下跌42.94点

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下跌0.57%

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指数回落

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但没有回补昨天的跳空缺口

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缺口两三天不补的话

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缺口位置反而会形成支撑位

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而且下方多条均线设置了层层防守位置

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预计技术性回调后仍有刷新历史高点7620点的潜力

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跌幅1.1%

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五

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指数回落试图回补缺口

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但受到均线支撑

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缺口大部分没有回补

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早盘时甚至出现大多科技股下跌

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只有SPACEX上涨的奇观

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收盘时

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前期热门的半导体硬件有一定幅度的回调

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削弱了纳指市场的关注度

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聚焦在新上市的SPACEX上面

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热门板块暂时损失了一点关注

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成交最活跃的当然还是SPACEX

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但美光科技

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英伟达等个股也紧随其后

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活跃在成交榜上

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道琼斯指数今天上涨328.64点

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涨幅0.64%

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又一次创新高

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道琼斯指数作为三大指数中最先创新高的品种

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反映出部分资金出现的避险倾向

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他们无法追高那些芯片和AI

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在科技股高估时

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买入道指的防御属性创新高

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是继续上涨的信号

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目前道指趋势良好

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可以继续看涨

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今天日本果然如期加息

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从0.75%加到了100%分之一

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对日本来说是高利率

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30年来没有这么高过的

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加息也充不起日元

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一美元可以换160日元

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十几年前一美元可以不到100日元

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现在是越换越多了

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美元升值

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日元贬值

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但是即使日元已经将利率加到了30年来高位

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仍无法挽救跌跌不休的日元

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那么卖出日元

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买入美元

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继续在美股市场上搏杀

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投资全球最顶尖的美国公司就仍然是最好的策略

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此次日元加息并没有造成资本回流

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今天美股小幅回调

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应该也不是日元加息造成的

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本周五美伊可能会在日内瓦签协议

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霍尔木兹海峡到时也会开放

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因此油价继续大跌

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头部形态基本完成

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布伦特原油在110左右冲了几次高点

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形成多重顶

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在90元破位

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确立了头部按对称跌幅

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原油可以跌到70

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受油价大跌影响

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市场对美联储今年加息的预测概率大幅下降

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明天加息的概率几乎是零

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年底最后一次议息会议

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加息一次的概率下降到41%

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那也还是有加息的概率

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只是概率下降了

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降息则基本上不太可能了

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星期三下午02:30

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卧室的讲话将决定股市短期和中期方向

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市场已经预测到

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本次议息会议可能会关闭降息周期

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不再提及宽松倾向

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在会议声明中删除宽松措辞

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在PPT当中点中图可能上移一到两个格子

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显示未来加息倾向啊

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那这些情况虽然市场有所预期

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但落地时仍然能给股市一点震动

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卧室首次记者会到底是不是会秉承言多必失的做法

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尽量不让市场想入非非

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也是一个悬念

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点阵图到底还能不能存在

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明天还有没有点状图

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这只是一个问题

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其实点政图并不是政策必然走向

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也是每个季度改来改去

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有时候还会出现点重非常分散

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内部分歧严重的情况

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沃实觉得这就多此一举

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让市场困惑了啊

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他估计是早晚要取消或者是弱化点状图

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在讲话PPT中

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卧室有可能连点阵图都不贴上去

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最近华尔街发明了一个新的词儿叫mangoes

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用来取代七巨头

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当然最早的时候华尔街喜欢fan f a a n g

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后来FACEBOOK改名了

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奈飞也掉队了

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fan古就退出江湖

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Magnificent seven

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涨不动了

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有的甚至开始下跌

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调整号召力有限

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于是新的词又被发明出来

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叫芒果mango

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分别是这七家公司

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其中两家还没有上市

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但是也快了

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这七只股被认为是人工智能的领军企业

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在这样的华尔街部分共识中

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我们可以得出

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有一些看起来是人工智能巨头的企业被无情的抛弃

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比如微软也是M开头的

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但是排不上号

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被meta顶上了

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还比如苹果虽然最近也在端测做AI

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但是在这一轮人工智能竞赛中明显掉队

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特斯拉则黯淡无光

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从马斯克到散户都力捧SPACEX

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特斯拉的明星光环被抢走了一大半

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虽然说发明个词儿来选几只股挺无聊的

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但如果市场达成了共识

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那资金和关注度就会向他们集中

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从而倾向于上涨

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今天我的公开账户的净值是20.8万

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我要是死守特斯拉

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估计账户资产都不太有大的变动

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因为这支股在持续的调整和消磨时间

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但我今天做了一笔风险看起来有点大的交易

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我说一说我的想法以及后面的对策

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今天我卖出了一张SPACEX的看涨期权

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这张期权在我卖出时成交是15.41

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收到期权费是1540亿美元

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卖出一张裸的看涨期权是表示赌股价下跌

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但这是一个不对称的赌

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我卖出的是2026年9月18号到期

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还有94天存续期的期权

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行权价是340

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方向是卖出call好

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那在这个账户上卖出SPACEX的CORE是一个裸卖空的交易

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书本上说这样的交易风险是无穷大

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倒霉时可以输到破产啊

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那我先说一下我卖出这张期权的原因

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今天是SPCX期权第一天上市交易

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前两天是完全没有做空工具的

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市场上所有人要炒SPACEX

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在前两天只有一个方向

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就是朝上涨做多

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从第三天开始

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由于有了期权

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有call有put

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那就出现了双向交易

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可以做空

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下跌也可以赚钱

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那么为什么是卖出340的行权价

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而不是卖一个250的呢

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当股价达到340

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SPACEX的市值将达到4.5万亿

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和谷歌一样

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并列或略超谷歌成为美股第二大市值公司

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当股价达到380的时候

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市值将比肩英伟达

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甚至超过英伟达成为股王

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那么我就想一个亏损的公司当上美股股王或者是第二

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真是一件颠覆观念的事情

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要知道英伟达和谷歌都是已经确定性超级盈利的公司

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而火箭公司离这样的盈利目标还非常遥远

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那下一个问题为什么是卖的9月18号呢

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目前期权开出来的到期日有限

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每个月只有一天到期的选择

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8月份是8月21号嗯

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SPACEX的第一波解禁限售股是在二季度的财报之后

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而二季报的日期还没有公布

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不知道是哪一天

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7月进入美股二季度财报季后

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科技巨头通常会在上半场就公布

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即使慢的8月份也公布完了

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那9月18号是肯定披露财报了

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几万亿的公司涨跌都是稳健的

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但是新股SPACEX除外

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因为流通股占全部股本的4.2%

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能流通的也就1000多亿的市值

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说起来也不是什么上万亿

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用4.2%的流通股代表全流通后的价值

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显然不具有代表性

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在全流通前

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股价按题材股疯涨也完全是有可能

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所以这个交易的风险其实不小

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因为流通盘这么小

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关注度这么高的情况下

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主力拉高股价

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让纳指100基金接盘是完全有恃无恐的

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当股价上涨时

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风险极大

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如果股价涨到了1000块

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那我岂不是要亏8万呐

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所以这张期权我可能是短炒而已

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更好的做法是买短卖长

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就是买一个7月份的call

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再卖出一张9月份的call

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以此来对冲

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买7月CORE呢可以在股票加入纳指时候获得一波上涨收益

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卖9月call可以在限售股解禁时

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不会把内部人卖出的抛售压力

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我可能会加上买入7月份call的这一腿啊

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也可能直接平仓

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已经卖出了9月份的CORE

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最近SPACEX的股价上涨有点停不下来

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主要不是公司有多大盈利能力

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而是关注的人和钱太多了

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股数却非常有限

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股价易涨难跌

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这两天其实还增加了股数

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但是根本浇不灭上涨的火焰

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我说这两天增加了股数

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是因为一个叫绿协的机制

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绿协正式名称是超额配售选择权

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企业上市时

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承销商可以额外多卖一部分股票

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这个比例是原始发行规模的15%

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如果上市后大跌

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承销商可以从市场上买回15%的股票

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还给公司

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这样低买高卖还能够赚个差价

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股价在上市初期也能有个托底

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但如果上市后大涨

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承销商超额配售了15%炸上浮亏了

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00:10:38,149 --> 00:10:42,669
就从公司那里按上市原价拿15%的股数来补平

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之前多卖出去的部分

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绿协之后

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SPACEX实际融资就不是750亿了

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而是857亿美元呀

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全球要注意

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SPACEX的资金实在是太多了

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这多出来的100来亿瞬间就全部吃掉了

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如此一来

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你还敢做空SPACEX吗

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评论区说说看啊好

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那今天的节目就分享到这里

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感谢大家收看

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我们下期节目再见

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拜拜

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