【视野环球财经】20260427美股 SOXX、SMH见顶了吗？NVDA、AMD灵魂互换！MSFT财报波动！CTA重仓看戏！

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大家好

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欢迎回到视野

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环球财经

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我是right now

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现在是美东时间26年4月27号

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周一晚上的08:45分呃

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咱们今天的节目啊是又又又又又晚了啊

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非常抱歉好

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咱们抓紧时间

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今天的四大指数呢是几乎收平啊

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总体波动不算很大啊

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今天波动比较大的呢是费城半导体指数

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中指18连涨啊

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只有六只上涨

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幸亏啊

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今天的美光和英伟达表现强势

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扛起了大旗

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否则今天这个半导体的走势呢不会只跌一个点

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这么少好额

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首先说一下关于费城半导体的状况啊

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估计很多朋友很关心呃

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其实今天呢从形态上来讲啊

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费城半导体指数是一个明显的滞涨形态

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呃

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但是呢这里面要考虑一个因素啊

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就是考虑到月底养老金的再平衡

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正在卖出之前跑的太快

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涨的太多的股票啊

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所以呢这个下跌和回撤的发生它是合理的

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但是呢能不能演化成更为广泛的抛压

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咱们还需要稍微的再观察一下

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那么观察什么呢

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我给大家看一下分时图

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这是今天费半的走势啊

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从今天的走势来看

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其实今天的买盘并不弱

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开盘一个小时之内触及了日内的低点

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随后是全天走强

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然后呢低点还在逐渐的抬高

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最终的收盘是收复了近一半的跌幅

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这种走势呢是比较符合被动抛售

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主动买盘介入的节奏

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也就是说呢这个抛售啊

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它实际上还没有形成合力

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简单讲就是有主动的资金

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正在承接养老金抛售的筹码啊

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所以才说需要再观察一下

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今天走的比较强

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那么观察的重点是什么

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就是今天啊这个低点位置

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如果后面大家看到今天这个低点走破位了

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那么会进一步强化和确认回调趋势的形成

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它会形成更广泛的套牢盘

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所以呢费半尽管今天是一个滞涨的形态

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但是呢它是暂时回调还是趋势性的回调

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由于卡在这个比较关键的时间点

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那么需要以今天的低点是否破位为准

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呃

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什么样算破位呢

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盘中刺破的不算啊

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以收盘价或者开盘价为准啊

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就是你看到收盘价或者开盘价啊

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跌破今天的最低点

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那么费半今天的低点大家可以查看一下

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我把这个费城半导体指数的两个ETF

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给大家拿出来看一下啊

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呃今天的soo xx的低点是在48.93啊

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同样的走势啊

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费半的走势

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他是费办的这个呃正经的这个费半的呃

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指数的这个ETF

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另外呢指数权重股不太一样的

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SMH呢是半导体指数啊

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今天的最低点是在额相对来讲还低一点啊

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今天是在497.74啊

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高一点啊

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比这个之前的还要高一点好吧

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那SMH的这个价格实际上的位置呢

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我们还要更多的看一部啊

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最好你可以看到在周五的这个低点啊

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收盘收到周五的这个低点下方去

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那他肯定是跌破了今天的低点吧对吧

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收盘收破收到了这个周五的额低点

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下方两个都跌破了啊

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他的位置稍微有一点点变化啊

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好所以呢他们这两个的强弱可以这么看呃

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到底是短暂的

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只是一个筹码的交换

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高位的交换

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后面空中加油还是能形成回调趋势啊

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这个地方呃

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那么如果后面我们看到反倒没有继续往下跌

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又创了新高

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突破了今天的高点啊

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那基本上就预示着半导体的这波涨势还没完啊

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后面还有更勇敢的人呢正在往里边冲好

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既然说到他们呢

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我把另外的一个个股也给大家先讲一下吧

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Amd

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今天的这个AMD的情况

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实际上和费半指数的走势差不多

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那么会进一步的确认和强化它的回调趋势呃

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今天的低点是在328.81啊

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因为中间是一个缺口

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那下方这个缺口是肯定要去回补的

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那下方就要跑到309

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差不多是十个点左右的一个回撤啊

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至少是十个点的回撤好额

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就确认一个下跌趋势啊

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那我可能就要操作了啊

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因为今天我是没有操作的啊

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今天刚才讲过原因啊

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因为今天有一个特殊情况发生好额

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那么反之如果向上突破高点呢

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那么说明短期追涨的资金还没有走完

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那就后面继续与走啊

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继续等继续等它出下一个位置的形态

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然后呢我再去考虑我的操作好

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这个呢是AMD其他的个股呢我们放到后边再讲啊

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我这里呢先插播啊

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不是广告啊

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先插播一个消息面的进展啊

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不过说实话

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我这个里边

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好像基本上是没有插播什么广告的啊

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这个基本上就是呃YOUTUBE这边他们插播广告啊

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我自己的这个广告啊什么的

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大家可以看到

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我几乎呢没有在这里边播

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任何的什么口播广告啊

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非常非常的罕见呃

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主要是呢我个人对这个东西呢我觉得挺麻烦的

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你知道吗

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呵因为我也我觉得我这人其实挺怕麻烦的

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有时候好

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我不扯远了啊

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我们继续讲股市好呃

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我们来说一下中东的消息吧

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呃今天的布伦特原油呢是呃

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在收盘的时候收的还比较高啊

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今天的收盘收到了109

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然后新的一天开盘呢直接是一个大低开啊

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然后现在呢是102

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总的来讲呢没有上110

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仍旧在100附近

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嗯今天的这个中东谈判

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我们把周末的整个的给大家做一个综述啊

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呃基本上结果是还没谈成啊

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但是呢过程又出现了新的变化

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第一个呢是伊朗向美国提出结束战争和重开

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霍尔木兹海峡的三部谈判方案啊

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这是第一个啊

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比方说他们其中提到的重要一点

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就是关于这个核的问题能不能延后再说啊

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其中这是个重点

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还有第二个呢

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就是美国呢是取消了特使访问这个巴基斯坦

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去谈判的这个行程

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然后呢

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伊朗认为他的军方应该控制霍尔木兹海峡啊

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美国不能容忍

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伊朗恢复对霍尔木兹海峡的控制啊

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所以呢基本上进展是没有的啊

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但是看起来呢呃市场呃在干什么

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我跟大家还说一个时间点啊

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因为呃在美国来讲

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对于国会就是未经国会授权的这个战争啊

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通常是60天

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也就是大概在5月1号

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5月2号左右截止啊

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因为开战是在2月28号左右嘛

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然后呢后面呃如果没有国会授权的话

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后面没有办法再延长这个战争啊

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当然有一个这个延长一个月的

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比方说撤军计划

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那个是可以额外延长一个月的

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但是如果再加大投入战争的话

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需要得到国会授权啊

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就是所以市场呢现在就在卡这个时间点

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那5月1号二号不是马上就要来了吗

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对吧

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他在法律层面的话

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如果过不了

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他在资金层面也到不了位啊

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那打仗对吧

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这个要人吃马喂的

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那这个都是要花钱的嘛

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所以呢这是市场呢目前还在等的一个节点

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那原油海峡没有通对吧

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所以价格也没有下来

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原油的价格越高

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形成的伪底部的风险就是右侧右尾的风险

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未来会逐渐的累积传导到各行各业

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那个基本面

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只要油价高

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它是不会变化的

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所以现在的市场大家看到很多都是半导体在涨

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那其他的传统的行业在干嘛

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趴在地上对吧

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要么就睡着了

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要么呢还在跌呢

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要么就横着不动

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那很多受到成本呃

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压缩能源价格上涨

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成本一呃

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这个提升利润率压缩的企业很糟糕的呀

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现在非常的难做啊

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所以现在的情况大家还是那句话

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分清楚短炒和长期基本面之间的关系

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短炒它不影响长期基本面的走势

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比如说现在我们价格看到啊炒的很高这么高

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那它不耽误它基本面确认恶化

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然后呢半导体直接他炒完了

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波段资金要撤退了

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一波回撤下来

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那么下方谁来扛呢

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基本面那边扛不住对吧

218
00:08:52,950 --> 00:08:55,070
那你这个这个半导体你也不想扛了

219
00:08:55,070 --> 00:08:56,470
大家要获利了结了

220
00:08:56,470 --> 00:08:58,169
那不就连滚带爬了吗

221
00:08:58,169 --> 00:09:00,789
那回调起来那也就是很快的事了

222
00:09:00,789 --> 00:09:02,549
所以短炒是短炒

223
00:09:02,549 --> 00:09:06,490
短炒炒完了记得跑就行了好

224
00:09:06,490 --> 00:09:09,309
然后呢我们来说一下其他的哦

225
00:09:09,309 --> 00:09:09,990
还要带一句

226
00:09:09,990 --> 00:09:11,269
关于这个市场呢

227
00:09:11,269 --> 00:09:14,559
对于周末不是发生了这个总统的枪击案吗

228
00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:15,759
呃总的来看呢

229
00:09:15,759 --> 00:09:18,200
市场的反应是比较平淡的啊

230
00:09:18,200 --> 00:09:22,389
这里说的是金融市场整体的反应比较平淡好

231
00:09:22,389 --> 00:09:26,000
接下来我们再说一下其他的个股

232
00:09:27,059 --> 00:09:27,879
微软啊

233
00:09:27,879 --> 00:09:29,879
微软呢今天是惊心动魄呃

234
00:09:33,250 --> 00:09:35,889
然后今天的盘中的时候曾经也有下跌

235
00:09:35,889 --> 00:09:37,529
跌到过410多块啊

236
00:09:37,529 --> 00:09:39,690
但是后来很快的被拉起来

237
00:09:39,690 --> 00:09:42,919
然后最终是一个收盘微涨好

238
00:09:42,919 --> 00:09:44,700
微软这边发生了什么事情呢

239
00:09:44,700 --> 00:09:48,519
还是和OpenAI的这个合作的问题

240
00:09:48,519 --> 00:09:52,179
我们看一下他们有一些修改合作的细节

241
00:09:54,139 --> 00:09:57,840
那么微软和OpenAI呢是宣布了一项修订后的协议

242
00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:00,559
旨在简化双方的合作结构

243
00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:02,179
第一点

244
00:10:02,539 --> 00:10:06,580
微软仍旧是open i的主要的云合作伙伴

245
00:10:06,580 --> 00:10:10,009
open i的产品呢将首先在A柱上发布

246
00:10:10,009 --> 00:10:13,960
除非微软无法且选择不提供必要的支持啊

247
00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:17,480
所以呢现在OpenAI可以通过任何的云提供商

248
00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:20,120
向客户提供所有的产品呃

249
00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:21,600
首发在微软上

250
00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:22,860
但首发完了以后

251
00:10:22,860 --> 00:10:24,679
其他的平台他仍旧可以去合作啊

252
00:10:24,679 --> 00:10:26,240
这是OpenAI这边

253
00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:27,799
第二个就是

254
00:10:27,799 --> 00:10:32,318
微软将继续拥有open i的IP模型和产品授权

255
00:10:32,318 --> 00:10:34,918
直到2032年啊

256
00:10:34,918 --> 00:10:37,859
但是现在微软的授权是非独占的啊

257
00:10:37,859 --> 00:10:38,710
非独占的

258
00:10:38,710 --> 00:10:41,350
那这个授权呢其实还是这个

259
00:10:41,350 --> 00:10:45,029
相当于把一些知识产权的东西拿在手里

260
00:10:45,500 --> 00:10:50,259
还有就是微软将不再向OpenAI支付收益的分成啊

261
00:10:50,259 --> 00:10:51,480
比方说以前的时候

262
00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:55,960
通过呃使用了它相关的AI的智能工具以后

263
00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:58,159
其中有一部分的钱是要给OpenAI的啊

264
00:10:58,159 --> 00:10:59,159
现在呢就不给了

265
00:10:59,159 --> 00:11:01,509
那么微软自己就留下来了

266
00:11:01,870 --> 00:11:02,350
好

267
00:11:02,350 --> 00:11:03,470
那么还有一个呢

268
00:11:03,470 --> 00:11:05,830
就是OpenAI向微软支付的收入

269
00:11:05,830 --> 00:11:08,009
会持续到2030年

270
00:11:08,009 --> 00:11:10,250
与open i的技术进步无关啊

271
00:11:10,250 --> 00:11:11,330
分成比例不变

272
00:11:11,330 --> 00:11:13,779
但总额有限制

273
00:11:14,179 --> 00:11:16,059
还有一个就是作为主要股东

274
00:11:16,059 --> 00:11:19,759
微软继续直接参与OpenAI的发展

275
00:11:19,759 --> 00:11:21,919
好其实这个消息出来之后啊

276
00:11:21,919 --> 00:11:25,208
市场最开始的理解是OpenAI和呃

277
00:11:25,208 --> 00:11:28,089
微软的这个合作呢更松散了

278
00:11:28,089 --> 00:11:31,889
那微软自己本身他没有去做这个AI对吧

279
00:11:31,889 --> 00:11:34,509
他其实一直是挂在OpenAI上面的

280
00:11:34,509 --> 00:11:36,470
那这种情况就会让大家担心啊

281
00:11:36,470 --> 00:11:38,470
那微软是不是掉掉队了是吧

282
00:11:38,470 --> 00:11:40,639
会不会有这个欧盟

283
00:11:40,639 --> 00:11:43,399
应该最后呃把大量的东西都给别人用

284
00:11:43,399 --> 00:11:45,440
其实后来细节发布之后呢

285
00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:46,899
刚开始是一个标题对吧

286
00:11:46,899 --> 00:11:48,240
说之前说修改

287
00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:49,720
那可能以为大家要脱钩了

288
00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:51,240
发现后面其实没脱钩

289
00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:52,240
还是差不多的

290
00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:53,519
而且对微软来讲

291
00:11:53,519 --> 00:11:55,919
还减少了一部分的这个分成收益

292
00:11:55,919 --> 00:11:59,828
呃就是呃少支付一些分成收益其实并不差啊

293
00:11:59,828 --> 00:12:01,548
所以呢又这个市场又涨回来了啊

294
00:12:01,548 --> 00:12:03,679
就这么奇怪好呃

295
00:12:03,679 --> 00:12:06,500
这个呢是微软的一个基本面的调整

296
00:12:06,969 --> 00:12:08,489
对于业绩的影响呢

297
00:12:08,489 --> 00:12:10,708
目前今天这条消息变化不大啊

298
00:12:10,708 --> 00:12:13,039
最大的变数在哪里

299
00:12:13,519 --> 00:12:19,340
最大的变数是在4月29号盘后发布财报啊

300
00:12:19,340 --> 00:12:21,139
这个财报对于大科技来讲

301
00:12:21,139 --> 00:12:22,500
本周好几个啊

302
00:12:22,500 --> 00:12:26,759
最重要的是看他们的一个是自己的季度的状况

303
00:12:26,759 --> 00:12:28,250
未来的前瞻

304
00:12:28,250 --> 00:12:31,549
特别是要注意他们在未来

305
00:12:31,549 --> 00:12:34,720
对于资本支出计划的描述

306
00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:36,059
这非常重要啊

307
00:12:36,059 --> 00:12:40,549
因为这个关系到这个整个的AI的这个炒作

308
00:12:40,549 --> 00:12:43,580
它的生命周期还能延续多久的问题啊

309
00:12:43,580 --> 00:12:44,700
咱们多次讲过这个啊

310
00:12:44,700 --> 00:12:46,480
当然现在才第一季度

311
00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:49,860
预计呢不太会对今年的支出计划

312
00:12:49,860 --> 00:12:51,289
进行大幅调整呃

313
00:12:51,289 --> 00:12:53,649
但是随着日历年往后推

314
00:12:53,649 --> 00:12:55,070
在二季度之后

315
00:12:55,070 --> 00:12:56,750
也就是二季度财报披露

316
00:12:56,750 --> 00:12:58,620
大概是在78月份的时候

317
00:12:58,620 --> 00:13:01,740
那个时候就有可能会出现

318
00:13:01,740 --> 00:13:06,159
我们看到由于今年的AI资本支出带来的收益

319
00:13:06,159 --> 00:13:07,679
已经基本上过半了嘛对吧

320
00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:09,619
它会有一个平衡

321
00:13:09,619 --> 00:13:12,599
就能大概的他们会透一些风声出来

322
00:13:12,599 --> 00:13:14,578
有可能会在2027年

323
00:13:14,578 --> 00:13:17,809
对于资本支出的变化到底怎么样啊

324
00:13:17,809 --> 00:13:19,370
因为因为作为上市公司来讲

325
00:13:19,370 --> 00:13:22,419
通常他们会越早去发布一些信息来讲

326
00:13:22,419 --> 00:13:24,019
对他们会越有利啊

327
00:13:24,019 --> 00:13:26,820
他们到最后的话有一些重大事项不披露的

328
00:13:26,820 --> 00:13:28,340
有可能会招来诉讼

329
00:13:28,340 --> 00:13:30,659
所以像这种大规模的支出计划

330
00:13:30,659 --> 00:13:31,659
我们一直要跟啊

331
00:13:31,659 --> 00:13:32,440
以前给大家讲

332
00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:36,860
像几个大型科技股在二季度的这个时间表

333
00:13:36,860 --> 00:13:38,220
二季度财报后啊

334
00:13:38,220 --> 00:13:39,799
是一个值得观察的点

335
00:13:39,799 --> 00:13:41,440
但是二季度如果他不公布

336
00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:43,840
那最晚它拖到三季度也差不多了啊

337
00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:45,399
如果拖到四季度就太晚了啊

338
00:13:45,399 --> 00:13:48,500
所以我们二季度之后那个财报就更加重要

339
00:13:48,500 --> 00:13:51,419
那么本季度呢仍旧是看今年的资本支出

340
00:13:51,419 --> 00:13:54,419
以及后续的一些呃业绩进展

341
00:13:55,019 --> 00:13:56,600
这里我想说一下

342
00:13:56,600 --> 00:14:00,600
他的这个财报后的这个波动情况和

343
00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:03,360
潜在的可能走势啊

344
00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:07,600
微软的情况呢是他29号财报

345
00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:09,559
最近的一个财报后

346
00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:12,200
最近一个期权结算日是在5月1号啊

347
00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:12,799
周五

348
00:14:12,799 --> 00:14:16,549
那么这个期权的波动压注呢

349
00:14:16,549 --> 00:14:19,549
是在425块钱上下

350
00:14:19,549 --> 00:14:22,190
大概是30块钱以内

351
00:14:22,190 --> 00:14:25,210
波动是68%左右的大概率啊

352
00:14:25,210 --> 00:14:27,639
我们这里呢把这个称之为大概率

353
00:14:27,639 --> 00:14:30,200
那么30%一点多是接近32的

354
00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:31,299
叫小概率

355
00:14:31,299 --> 00:14:34,779
那么小概率呢就是黑天鹅事件

356
00:14:34,779 --> 00:14:39,059
黑天鹅事件就会推动股价超出这个范围啊

357
00:14:39,059 --> 00:14:40,100
不是说百分之百啊

358
00:14:40,100 --> 00:14:41,980
因为我这里都已经说了概率啊

359
00:14:41,980 --> 00:14:46,139
也就是说如果出现极大的黑天鹅的利空

360
00:14:46,139 --> 00:14:48,818
它往下跌了30块钱

361
00:14:48,818 --> 00:14:50,619
超破30块钱啊

362
00:14:50,619 --> 00:14:54,379
那他425减掉30块就跌穿

363
00:14:54,379 --> 00:14:57,990
这个价格就会跌到395的下方

364
00:14:58,149 --> 00:15:00,049
395的下方

365
00:15:00,049 --> 00:15:01,809
那它就会破坏掉

366
00:15:01,809 --> 00:15:06,789
在近期已经形成的上行突破的这个结构

367
00:15:06,789 --> 00:15:09,750
重新回到震荡模式

368
00:15:09,750 --> 00:15:11,789
当然如果真的出现这种情况

369
00:15:11,789 --> 00:15:16,250
那他之前的这个背离的情况也会得到修复啊

370
00:15:16,250 --> 00:15:18,860
所以呢就是一体两面有好有坏

371
00:15:18,860 --> 00:15:21,940
坏的呢就是短期股价又得要摩擦一阵了

372
00:15:21,940 --> 00:15:24,639
那么对于有的没有想没有上车的朋友

373
00:15:24,639 --> 00:15:25,820
又有上车的机会了

374
00:15:25,820 --> 00:15:26,840
这是好的对吧

375
00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:29,100
然后呢同时技术面也能得到修复

376
00:15:29,100 --> 00:15:31,379
等待下一次的突破重新来一遍啊

377
00:15:31,379 --> 00:15:33,559
相当于把这个事情又往后拖了啊

378
00:15:33,559 --> 00:15:35,610
这是我们说不好的一面

379
00:15:35,610 --> 00:15:36,529
往下走

380
00:15:36,529 --> 00:15:39,950
那么好的一面呢出现了重大的利好

381
00:15:39,950 --> 00:15:42,110
往上推升超过30块

382
00:15:42,110 --> 00:15:44,620
那么就跑到了455块以上

383
00:15:44,620 --> 00:15:48,200
也就意味着能突破452的这个中等压力

384
00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:51,700
下一个目标直指498级上方

385
00:15:51,700 --> 00:15:55,840
那就存在着更大的右侧的结构突破的可能性

386
00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:57,500
去看前高的一个走势了啊

387
00:15:57,500 --> 00:16:00,000
那就说看前高552的走势了

388
00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:01,379
那那个走势就比较大了

389
00:16:01,379 --> 00:16:03,159
但暂时我认为没这么快

390
00:16:03,159 --> 00:16:05,039
本次财报肯定是达不到的啊

391
00:16:05,039 --> 00:16:05,860
肯定是达不到

392
00:16:05,860 --> 00:16:08,200
本次财报要是真的能够突破452

393
00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:10,080
已经属于极大利好了啊

394
00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:13,240
这一次呢就要看不要跌破395

395
00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:14,080
不要出重大利空

396
00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:14,879
又跌回去

397
00:16:14,879 --> 00:16:16,840
那就在下面又要摩擦半天啊

398
00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:17,779
就比较费劲啊

399
00:16:17,779 --> 00:16:18,870
就这个意思好吧

400
00:16:18,870 --> 00:16:22,669
但是摩擦下去真的给你摩擦的机会了

401
00:16:22,669 --> 00:16:25,529
那是那个仓位少的朋友或者没有仓位的朋友

402
00:16:25,529 --> 00:16:27,259
又给了你一次上车的机会

403
00:16:27,259 --> 00:16:29,340
我个人没有任何的仓位给他了哈

404
00:16:29,340 --> 00:16:31,500
因为我已经14%的仓位了

405
00:16:31,500 --> 00:16:33,720
持仓成本在251块钱左右

406
00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:34,759
最大持仓

407
00:16:34,759 --> 00:16:36,159
所以即便跌破

408
00:16:36,159 --> 00:16:37,519
我也不会有任何动作啊

409
00:16:37,519 --> 00:16:38,279
我仍旧去等

410
00:16:38,279 --> 00:16:39,139
因为这个地方

411
00:16:39,139 --> 00:16:42,529
我认为它继续深跌的概率就不是那么大

412
00:16:42,529 --> 00:16:43,330
好

413
00:16:43,330 --> 00:16:45,429
这是微软额

414
00:16:45,429 --> 00:16:46,009
微软哦

415
00:16:46,009 --> 00:16:46,730
既然说到持仓

416
00:16:46,730 --> 00:16:49,289
刚才AMD那边我没有那个减仓啊

417
00:16:49,289 --> 00:16:50,259
今天我刚才跟大家讲了

418
00:16:50,259 --> 00:16:50,940
我忘记了

419
00:16:50,940 --> 00:16:51,860
我没有操作的啊

420
00:16:51,860 --> 00:16:52,620
今天没有操作

421
00:16:52,620 --> 00:16:53,779
因为刚才说了要等

422
00:16:53,779 --> 00:16:54,500
对不对啊

423
00:16:54,500 --> 00:16:55,179
等了以后呢

424
00:16:55,179 --> 00:16:56,259
后面确认趋势了

425
00:16:56,259 --> 00:16:57,230
我会去操作啊

426
00:16:57,230 --> 00:16:59,570
该清仓清仓的呃

427
00:16:59,570 --> 00:17:03,750
好然后再说一下英伟达

428
00:17:05,099 --> 00:17:06,119
英伟达啊

429
00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:10,058
呃今天呢AMD是大幅回撤

430
00:17:10,058 --> 00:17:12,818
然后呢英伟达是上涨了四个点

431
00:17:12,818 --> 00:17:16,690
而且是连续两天都涨了四个点

432
00:17:16,690 --> 00:17:17,970
你看这走势啊

433
00:17:17,970 --> 00:17:20,650
说实话英伟达走的都有点脱相了

434
00:17:20,650 --> 00:17:22,460
是不是都不太认识了啊

435
00:17:22,460 --> 00:17:26,759
难道平静的英伟达内心也藏了个狂野的AMD吗

436
00:17:26,759 --> 00:17:27,160
对吧

437
00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:27,619
所以呢

438
00:17:27,619 --> 00:17:30,380
今天估计持有英伟达的朋友还是比较开心的

439
00:17:30,380 --> 00:17:34,460
那咱们呢就继续的享受抬轿子啊

440
00:17:34,460 --> 00:17:36,460
因为我也没有做任何的操作啊

441
00:17:36,460 --> 00:17:38,759
目前英伟达是我的第二大持仓

442
00:17:38,759 --> 00:17:39,319
呃

443
00:17:39,319 --> 00:17:42,319
之前呢他在180~190的时候啊

444
00:17:42,319 --> 00:17:43,880
咱们讲过很多次

445
00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:45,839
如果你没有他的仓位

446
00:17:45,839 --> 00:17:48,039
那么那个价位的基本面呢

447
00:17:48,039 --> 00:17:49,730
它是不贵的对吧

448
00:17:49,730 --> 00:17:51,269
不贵的我们给大家看过啊

449
00:17:51,269 --> 00:17:52,630
在上一次财报啊

450
00:17:52,630 --> 00:17:54,929
包括后面陆续更新都在这里都有

451
00:17:54,929 --> 00:17:56,128
价格不高啊

452
00:17:56,128 --> 00:17:57,588
你可以进点货是吧

453
00:17:57,588 --> 00:18:00,368
但是对于已经有仓位的仓位也太多的

454
00:18:00,368 --> 00:18:02,170
那你就不用太着急了呀

455
00:18:02,170 --> 00:18:04,369
啊你就耐心等它启动就好了

456
00:18:04,369 --> 00:18:05,400
那么现在启动了

457
00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:06,759
那就恭喜各位啊

458
00:18:06,759 --> 00:18:08,119
要不就是这边上了车的

459
00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:09,319
要不就是耐心持有的

460
00:18:09,319 --> 00:18:10,160
反正总之呢

461
00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:13,779
现在是让你看到了这个更多的突破吧

462
00:18:13,779 --> 00:18:14,339
好

463
00:18:14,339 --> 00:18:18,640
另外呢肯定还有一帮朋友呢会问能不能追是吧

464
00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:20,720
每次涨完之后又能不能追

465
00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:23,059
那今天那很明确的告诉大家

466
00:18:23,059 --> 00:18:25,359
不能开篇的时候呢

467
00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:29,519
讲到关于费城半导体是一个中性测试阶段

468
00:18:29,519 --> 00:18:32,039
如果真的发生了较坏的情况

469
00:18:32,039 --> 00:18:34,740
演变成大幅的回撤趋势

470
00:18:34,740 --> 00:18:38,390
那会拖累英伟达的涨幅啊

471
00:18:38,390 --> 00:18:39,269
会拖累的

472
00:18:39,269 --> 00:18:40,349
你现在去追呢

473
00:18:40,349 --> 00:18:42,909
你很有可能接追一个阶段高点

474
00:18:42,909 --> 00:18:46,108
如果非办那边又打了高点往上走了

475
00:18:46,108 --> 00:18:47,828
那英伟达的行情还没走完啊

476
00:18:47,828 --> 00:18:48,788
那还是可以的

477
00:18:48,788 --> 00:18:51,319
但你怎么知道你追完之后

478
00:18:51,319 --> 00:18:54,779
它到底是向上还是向下呢啊从性价比角度啊

479
00:18:54,779 --> 00:18:55,779
当然你一定要说

480
00:18:55,779 --> 00:18:57,539
我就是在这个地方追了一个长线

481
00:18:57,539 --> 00:18:58,259
可不可以

482
00:18:58,259 --> 00:18:59,220
那你可以啊

483
00:18:59,220 --> 00:18:59,940
你继续拿呀

484
00:18:59,940 --> 00:19:01,059
你拿到27年1月

485
00:19:01,059 --> 00:19:02,019
拿到28年1月

486
00:19:02,019 --> 00:19:03,470
那确实是不贵啊

487
00:19:03,470 --> 00:19:06,349
但是呢中间你就别说怎么买完之后又被套了

488
00:19:06,349 --> 00:19:07,990
你就别别管这个短期了

489
00:19:07,990 --> 00:19:09,950
如果你买的确实是长期对吧

490
00:19:09,950 --> 00:19:11,990
那你刚才之前这个一百八一百九

491
00:19:11,990 --> 00:19:14,670
毕竟已经给了八个月的横盘机会啊

492
00:19:14,670 --> 00:19:16,950
已经给了足够多的时间好吧

493
00:19:16,950 --> 00:19:18,400
所以大家自己去思考啊

494
00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:21,559
我目前呢就没有什么怎么加减仓计划啊

495
00:19:21,559 --> 00:19:25,609
在这个地方让他先走一段时间再说额

496
00:19:25,609 --> 00:19:29,069
所以呢呃这个就是英伟达

497
00:19:29,269 --> 00:19:32,230
然后最后呢其他的我就不想多说啊

498
00:19:32,230 --> 00:19:35,190
然后因为在上个星期讲的也挺多的

499
00:19:35,190 --> 00:19:36,888
一些大的科技股

500
00:19:37,269 --> 00:19:40,059
然后我说一下关于CTA

501
00:19:41,519 --> 00:19:44,359
呃这个CCTA是我们在4月13号更新的啊

502
00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:45,500
今天没有任何更新

503
00:19:45,500 --> 00:19:47,970
我今天只是想提醒大家一下

504
00:19:47,970 --> 00:19:50,730
目前CTA多头啊

505
00:19:50,730 --> 00:19:56,420
它的创建已经恢复到在中东冲突之前

506
00:19:56,420 --> 00:19:59,069
头寸的75%左右

507
00:19:59,069 --> 00:20:02,380
目前全球的CCTA的多头仓位

508
00:20:02,380 --> 00:20:05,640
稳定在1110亿美元左右

509
00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:07,180
这个是全球市场啊

510
00:20:07,180 --> 00:20:08,630
不是指美股市场

511
00:20:08,630 --> 00:20:10,970
那么美股市场有多少呢

512
00:20:10,970 --> 00:20:15,150
CCTA目前持有大概320亿美元左右的标普

513
00:20:15,150 --> 00:20:17,308
500的指数的多头头寸啊

514
00:20:17,308 --> 00:20:20,068
做做多标普的大概有320亿

515
00:20:20,068 --> 00:20:21,848
那么上周是买了200多亿

516
00:20:21,848 --> 00:20:24,349
过去的一个月买了500多亿

517
00:20:24,349 --> 00:20:26,990
所以从现在开始

518
00:20:26,990 --> 00:20:29,470
大家不要寄希望于CCTA

519
00:20:29,470 --> 00:20:32,279
还会继续的去买这个位置啊

520
00:20:32,279 --> 00:20:34,299
他的购买量极少

521
00:20:34,299 --> 00:20:38,098
极少可以忽略不计反之

522
00:20:38,098 --> 00:20:40,878
如果出现大幅暴跌的情况

523
00:20:40,878 --> 00:20:41,378
股市

524
00:20:41,378 --> 00:20:44,199
那么CCTA会出售股票

525
00:20:44,199 --> 00:20:47,638
但现在呢它触发的位置离得比较的远啊

526
00:20:47,638 --> 00:20:49,598
仍旧是我们上次更新过的位置啊

527
00:20:49,598 --> 00:20:51,630
大概在6700多点的位置

528
00:20:51,630 --> 00:20:53,910
你现在还有三四百点啊

529
00:20:53,910 --> 00:20:54,690
非常的远

530
00:20:54,690 --> 00:20:57,509
所以呢今天没有新的更新

531
00:20:57,509 --> 00:20:58,890
除非之前之呃

532
00:20:58,890 --> 00:20:59,430
未来呢

533
00:20:59,430 --> 00:21:00,269
如果真的出现了

534
00:21:00,269 --> 00:21:03,140
单日标普1%以上的跌幅啊

535
00:21:03,140 --> 00:21:05,140
那么有可能会有一些变化

536
00:21:05,140 --> 00:21:06,539
这个位置有可能会上移啊

537
00:21:06,539 --> 00:21:07,259
有可能会上移

538
00:21:07,259 --> 00:21:08,869
如果只是很缓慢的

539
00:21:08,869 --> 00:21:10,650
每天一个点以内

540
00:21:10,650 --> 00:21:11,730
什么0.5啊

541
00:21:11,730 --> 00:21:13,599
0.40.3呃

542
00:21:13,599 --> 00:21:14,339
0.6啊

543
00:21:14,339 --> 00:21:15,420
上下涨跌这种

544
00:21:15,420 --> 00:21:17,259
那c ct的位置呢变化不会大

545
00:21:17,259 --> 00:21:18,920
但磨的时间足够长

546
00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:19,759
它也会有变化

547
00:21:19,759 --> 00:21:20,599
它会上移啊

548
00:21:20,599 --> 00:21:22,409
但现在他就这么个情况

549
00:21:22,409 --> 00:21:23,249
他是不买了

550
00:21:23,249 --> 00:21:25,368
但是呢他现在也没卖啊

551
00:21:25,368 --> 00:21:27,568
所以大家就期待市场的波动呢

552
00:21:27,568 --> 00:21:29,150
如果往上走

553
00:21:29,150 --> 00:21:30,589
那一切大家都好是吧

554
00:21:30,589 --> 00:21:32,230
如果往下走走的太快了

555
00:21:32,230 --> 00:21:33,839
大家大家就都不好

556
00:21:33,839 --> 00:21:36,319
当然这些信息呢资金流动的信息呃

557
00:21:36,319 --> 00:21:38,319
我在平常的跟踪过程中

558
00:21:38,319 --> 00:21:40,220
有及时的消息

559
00:21:40,220 --> 00:21:43,388
就会经常给大家做一个沟通啊

560
00:21:43,388 --> 00:21:45,628
呃这个如果没有新东西呢

561
00:21:45,628 --> 00:21:48,028
我平常就这个就就就不讲

562
00:21:48,028 --> 00:21:50,308
大家也就比不用单独来问啊

563
00:21:50,308 --> 00:21:51,548
因为没有讲重要信息

564
00:21:51,548 --> 00:21:52,778
没有讲代表呢

565
00:21:52,778 --> 00:21:54,529
他就没发生什么事情吧

566
00:21:54,529 --> 00:21:55,009
好

567
00:21:55,009 --> 00:21:56,250
所以呢现在的情况呢

568
00:21:56,250 --> 00:21:59,410
就是本周主要是大型科技公司的财报来推动了

569
00:21:59,410 --> 00:22:01,720
我们看看到底你往哪推吧是吧

570
00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:04,529
上推下推还是横向按摩哈

571
00:22:04,529 --> 00:22:08,390
总之呢市场现在处于一个比较极端的

572
00:22:08,390 --> 00:22:10,130
头部过于集中的状态啊

573
00:22:10,130 --> 00:22:13,690
这种状态很显然是不健康的啊

574
00:22:13,690 --> 00:22:15,710
这是非常明确的结论

575
00:22:15,710 --> 00:22:18,929
市场的广度非常非常的差

576
00:22:18,929 --> 00:22:21,969
那么这种情况未来一定要改变啊

577
00:22:21,969 --> 00:22:23,869
因为不可能这么一直走下去

578
00:22:23,869 --> 00:22:26,950
好这个呢就是咱们今天节目的全部内容啊

579
00:22:26,950 --> 00:22:29,509
那如果你觉得我的节目对你有所帮助

580
00:22:29,509 --> 00:22:33,890
还是希望大家能够多多帮忙点赞评论转发

581
00:22:33,890 --> 00:22:34,509
谢谢大家啊

582
00:22:34,509 --> 00:22:35,069
多多点赞

583
00:22:35,069 --> 00:22:36,009
感谢大家

584
00:22:36,009 --> 00:22:37,150
那今天到这儿

585
00:22:37,150 --> 00:22:40,259
咱们就明天同一时间不见不散

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