【Financial Education】翻盘时刻！这只股票即将迎来大爆发

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你得翻我的煎饼了

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女士们先生们，看看这位今天的公众人物

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上涨了十三万三千美元

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直到最后几小时交易前行情平淡

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评论区告诉我

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你们今天赚了多少

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我相信大家今天都有不错的表现

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好的

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我们先在视频开头讨论

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一些最佳机会所在

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就我个人观点而言

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就当前市场而言

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哪些股票将继续上涨

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某些股票在特定领域出现了大幅波动

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我想谈谈这里的机遇

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关于这一点

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他们不愿分享这条信息

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这非常重要

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这是我昨天在私人股票群分享的内容

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好的

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完成这部分分析后

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我们有四个内容需要回应

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我有四个视频

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需要在这里做出反应

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其中一个关于市场

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科技板块是否跌得足够多

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或是否还有进一步下跌空间

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恐惧买盘仍在前方

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朱利安·埃曼纽尔说

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我期待回应这个观点

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这应该很有趣

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接下来是迈克·威尔逊

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摩根士丹利的迈克·威尔逊预计年末股市上涨

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期待回应这个观点

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然后是最后一个

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里克·雷德

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来自贝莱德的重要观点需关注

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他是贝莱德首席投资官

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他的话值得重点关注

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关于他的看法

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市场绝非泡沫

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但具备相似特征

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期待回应这一点

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我需要你们配合

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马上

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开始前点个赞

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点个喜欢

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感谢已经完成的观众

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我由衷感谢大家

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谢谢

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所有人

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请订阅这个频道

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今天我们有很多内容要讨论

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好的

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希望你们在外面赚了不少钱

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我今天在我的前社交账号上发布了这个

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还有一些其他内容

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如果你想关注我

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我在描述区域里一直保持了X的链接

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如果你是X的使用者

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好的

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女士们先生们

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听好了

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想知道哪些股票即将进入爆发模式

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好的嗯

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让我告诉你哪些股票将进入爆发模式

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暂时停滞了一分钟

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没错

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好的

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听着耐克

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耐克仍在持续上涨

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这个涨了4.5%

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芝士蛋糕工厂依然强劲，今日再涨6%以上

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蛋糕股票桌面仍保持上涨势头

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没错

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圣诞老人小屋

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上周见到底部

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大约49美元左右

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现在已涨至60美元以上

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又涨了4%

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4%

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这股票过去几天涨了20%以上

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就在最近

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大概四个交易日

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或者类似情况

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而Moe的走势很强势

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我们之前讨论过这个，当时涨幅过大

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该股在40美元见底

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我们最近多次谈到这个

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去年解放日时暴涨至49美元

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你知道的，去年解放日

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所有这些波动

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没错

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这只股票已准备好大幅上涨

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果然再次见底

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49美元后持续上涨

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这只股仍有很长的上涨空间

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不过

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接近60美元

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我们现在才刚开始

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对

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罗维尔也将迎来大幅上涨

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说到那个问题

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现在你可能会关注一只股票

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疯狂上涨

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你会想Meta到底怎么了

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为什么Meta总是不动

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关于Meta，我需要说

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这和我几个月前在频道里解释的一样

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直到什么情况人们才会安心

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我将继续解释这个

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因为这让我很无奈

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当人们说Meta要上涨时

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比如

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我需要更好的表现

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我说兄弟

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你连视频都没看吗

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我已经讨论这个几个月了

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此时此刻Meta股价需要两种情况之一

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在动之前必须满足

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他们大幅增加资本支出

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索克塞格将宣布

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在未来几年

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我们知道不会像过去那样收紧

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在前几年

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将大幅调整

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这会让人们安心

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或者他必须从高层解释

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他们如何赚取巨额利润

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因为他们将投入大约

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今年资本支出在130到150亿美元之间

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今年

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没人明白原因

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包括我自己

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有人是Meta投资者

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嗯

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我表现更好

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我第一次买入Meta股票是在IPO后几个月

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大概是2011或2012年

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那已经是很久以前了

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然后快速获利

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没长期持有

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然后2018年再次买入

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多年来逐步建仓至大仓位

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对啊，嗯

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但我无法解释为何如此投入

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没人理解

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甚至扎克伯格也不明白

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这就是问题

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直到扎克伯格能解释

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我们要从这里赚取巨额财富，而不仅仅是

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哦

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我们将为你提供更好的广告

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并让你在平台上停留更久

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因为大家都说

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我们没必要花一百五十亿美元在那上面

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你应该能在更低预算下实现这个目标对吧

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这肯定是个更大的战略计划

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没人理解

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为什么需要花这么多钱

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大家都说嘿

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你想花五十亿美元

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我们支持你继续

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每年花五十亿美元

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你想花一百五十亿什么

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你想花的钱比公司收入还多

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你想开始借贷

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你知道的

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筹集资金投入

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所以在我们得到答复前

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Meta仍然

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你知道的

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无论市场如何变化

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Meta仍是垃圾股

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直到有关方面的清晰度出现

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现在收入增长并不重要

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对吧

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数据表现非常出色

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他们在增长收入

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超过30%

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但直到这两个情景之一

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Meta股票仍将是一堆垃圾

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我早在二月就解释过这一点

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我一直在不断解释

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看来我得继续解释下去

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Rh这边热度很高

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人们相信房地产市场未来几年会好转

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这就是它获得动量的原因

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惠而浦可能接下来会上涨

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请记住这一点

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其他消费类股票也出现动量

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宝洁就是一个典型案例，股价上涨

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加密货币可能见底

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对啊，Netflix

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你可以看看Netflix这只股票

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为什么Netflix仍处于垃圾股状态

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就像Meta一样

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就像Netflix

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这是一家了不起的公司

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就像Meta一样是一家伟大的公司

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但为什么Netflix这么平庸

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这股票太烂了

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没错

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这就是Netflix不再令人兴奋的原因

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就像会员数量大幅增长的时期

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和各种事情

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那些辉煌的日子已成为过去

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现在他们只是保持增长

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他们只是稳健增长的公司

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但归根结底

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没人对Meta感到兴奋

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市场或Netflix的兴奋点

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没有人

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你知道的

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市场所有兴奋点都在芯片股，今天就能看到

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比如今天

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对啊，看看市场当初有多兴奋

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看看哪些股票在涨

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正是

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像AMD和微软这样的股票

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微软涨了11%

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这里涨了6.6%

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AMD今天涨了8个百分点

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这就是兴奋所在

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像Netflix这样的股票

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没人对Netflix感到兴奋

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就像

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哦

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Netflix会表现不错

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公布财报

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不错

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你知道的

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这里完全没有兴奋感

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就这段话而言

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并不意味着

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这是差股

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作为买家其实能赚到钱

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作为买家

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我倒不介意现在买入Netflix

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嗯

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如果我们看看Netflix的估值

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其实不错

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Netflix市盈率224倍

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像Netflix

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这不算差

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所以是的

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就是这样

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好的

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接下来是

250
00:06:44,579 --> 00:06:45,720
让我分享一条消息

251
00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:47,939
我昨晚在私人股票群组里分享过

252
00:06:47,939 --> 00:06:51,269
我说得太多次了，很多科技股讨论

253
00:06:51,269 --> 00:06:52,750
这之前并不罕见

254
00:06:52,750 --> 00:06:53,829
一次大规模IPO

255
00:06:53,829 --> 00:06:55,490
我之前见过很多次

256
00:06:55,490 --> 00:06:58,870
如果科技和芯片股在未来几周继续下跌

257
00:06:58,870 --> 00:07:00,149
在SpaceX之后

258
00:07:00,149 --> 00:07:00,949
IPO

259
00:07:00,949 --> 00:07:01,810
嗯

260
00:07:01,810 --> 00:07:03,310
这将在周五发生

261
00:07:03,310 --> 00:07:05,110
那将是一次更严重的市场动向

262
00:07:05,110 --> 00:07:06,740
所以嗯

263
00:07:07,180 --> 00:07:10,220
IPO前抛售率完全正常

264
00:07:10,220 --> 00:07:12,459
IPO前抛售率根本不常见

265
00:07:12,459 --> 00:07:14,060
你知道我见过很多次了

266
00:07:14,060 --> 00:07:15,779
所有短期波动持续进行

267
00:07:15,779 --> 00:07:18,579
你知道这就是市场的好处

268
00:07:18,579 --> 00:07:21,160
长期来看这些事情来来去去

269
00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:22,259
超大规模IPO

270
00:07:22,259 --> 00:07:23,430
就像我们即将迎来的

271
00:07:23,430 --> 00:07:26,689
资金将在IPO前撤离其他科技股

272
00:07:26,689 --> 00:07:28,920
然后你知道最终会怎样

273
00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:31,199
市场之后会怎么做就看市场了

274
00:07:31,199 --> 00:07:31,980
对啊

275
00:07:31,980 --> 00:07:33,860
现在看看这些视频的反应

276
00:07:33,860 --> 00:07:34,100
顺便说一句

277
00:07:34,100 --> 00:07:35,860
如果你加入我的私人股票群组

278
00:07:35,860 --> 00:07:37,660
并想获取所有内容

279
00:07:37,660 --> 00:07:38,379
你将获得

280
00:07:38,379 --> 00:07:39,339
比如Discord聊天室

281
00:07:39,339 --> 00:07:43,100
所有课程大纲访问权，a thousand x docs.com

282
00:07:43,100 --> 00:07:45,220
如果你想了解我的操作

283
00:07:45,220 --> 00:07:46,740
我每周都在做的这些操作

284
00:07:46,740 --> 00:07:48,139
这些将是下方置顶评论

285
00:07:48,139 --> 00:07:49,259
我们即将关闭新成员注册

286
00:07:49,259 --> 00:07:50,259
很快就要结束了

287
00:07:50,259 --> 00:07:51,699
请记住这一点

288
00:07:51,699 --> 00:07:54,649
再次提醒下方置顶评论

289
00:07:54,649 --> 00:07:56,089
填写表格申请访问权限

290
00:07:56,089 --> 00:07:57,769
在关闭新成员注册前

291
00:07:57,769 --> 00:08:00,389
好的，这些视频在回应这四个科技股吗

292
00:08:00,389 --> 00:08:00,870
嗯

293
00:08:00,870 --> 00:08:02,470
纳斯达克上涨了两个百分之一

294
00:08:02,470 --> 00:08:04,329
这是我们重点关注的

295
00:08:04,329 --> 00:08:06,189
我们接近七千三百点

296
00:08:06,189 --> 00:08:10,350
标普指数本周下跌4%

297
00:08:10,350 --> 00:08:11,389
这值得注意

298
00:08:11,389 --> 00:08:14,639
纳斯达克本周下跌几个百分点

299
00:08:14,639 --> 00:08:17,120
股票已连续五天下跌

300
00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:17,879
顺便提一下EP

301
00:08:17,879 --> 00:08:19,240
如果你们听到一些钻探声

302
00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:20,519
我深表歉意

303
00:08:20,519 --> 00:08:23,759
我家房子外都在进行各种工程项目

304
00:08:23,759 --> 00:08:24,240
现在

305
00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:25,319
在房子侧面

306
00:08:25,319 --> 00:08:26,529
在后院

307
00:08:26,529 --> 00:08:29,050
他们不得不使用这种类似打桩机的冲击钻

308
00:08:29,050 --> 00:08:30,230
各种不同设备

309
00:08:30,230 --> 00:08:31,290
原因在于

310
00:08:31,290 --> 00:08:33,078
这栋房子建在山上

311
00:08:33,078 --> 00:08:36,879
所以挖掘起来绝对艰难

312
00:08:36,879 --> 00:08:37,499
等等

313
00:08:37,499 --> 00:08:39,458
这些人正在施工

314
00:08:39,458 --> 00:08:40,139
他们正在施工

315
00:08:40,139 --> 00:08:43,009
天啊外面有105到100多度

316
00:08:43,009 --> 00:08:43,889
太难熬了

317
00:08:43,889 --> 00:08:47,750
你知道我从小七岁就开始做体力活

318
00:08:47,750 --> 00:08:48,929
十八岁那年

319
00:08:48,929 --> 00:08:50,129
在110度高温下

320
00:08:50,129 --> 00:08:52,308
每天都是地狱

321
00:08:52,308 --> 00:08:53,048
真没意思

322
00:08:53,048 --> 00:08:54,168
确实没意思

323
00:08:54,168 --> 00:08:55,940
不过啊

324
00:08:55,940 --> 00:08:56,980
真够硬核的

325
00:08:56,980 --> 00:08:58,480
尤其是在山上挖掘

326
00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:00,080
这里是销售的核心区域

327
00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:01,899
所以发生了什么

328
00:09:01,899 --> 00:09:02,860
这就是问题

329
00:09:02,860 --> 00:09:05,059
我们想问乔纳森·克林斯基

330
00:09:05,059 --> 00:09:06,139
但g说

331
00:09:06,139 --> 00:09:07,519
但我说

332
00:09:07,519 --> 00:09:12,809
目前我们的假设是这仍处于布局阶段

333
00:09:12,809 --> 00:09:14,309
为何不考虑政权更迭

334
00:09:14,309 --> 00:09:16,578
但我们认为尚未完全结束

335
00:09:16,578 --> 00:09:17,538
因此

336
00:09:17,538 --> 00:09:20,479
建议您保持就座并系好安全带

337
00:09:20,479 --> 00:09:22,058
我有个节目

338
00:09:22,058 --> 00:09:24,860
我们预计近期会有更多进展

339
00:09:26,059 --> 00:09:26,899
你怎么看

340
00:09:26,899 --> 00:09:27,299
是的

341
00:09:27,299 --> 00:09:28,179
我认为这很合理

342
00:09:28,179 --> 00:09:28,860
这太

343
00:09:28,860 --> 00:09:30,500
现在还言之过早

344
00:09:30,500 --> 00:09:31,139
哦

345
00:09:31,139 --> 00:09:31,720
就是这样

346
00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:35,169
我们看到科技股巅峰不再重现

347
00:09:35,169 --> 00:09:40,110
过去三年人们多次做出此判断

348
00:09:40,110 --> 00:09:41,929
结果被打脸

349
00:09:41,929 --> 00:09:43,970
所以乔纳森是技术人员

350
00:09:43,970 --> 00:09:48,509
我不认为技术人员想说这30天波动

351
00:09:48,509 --> 00:09:52,809
这就像长达六个月牛市的终结

352
00:09:52,809 --> 00:09:54,110
我不想这么说

353
00:09:54,110 --> 00:09:55,149
然而

354
00:09:55,149 --> 00:09:59,710
目前七魔股全年已集体转跌

355
00:09:59,710 --> 00:10:02,429
韩国股市出现抛售顶峰

356
00:10:02,429 --> 00:10:03,578
内存股

357
00:10:03,578 --> 00:10:06,778
你们很多人看到半导体今天反弹了三成

358
00:10:06,778 --> 00:10:08,578
缺乏足够信心

359
00:10:08,578 --> 00:10:11,169
这些走势背后成交量寥寥

360
00:10:11,169 --> 00:10:14,730
软件股 rally 推波助澜

361
00:10:14,730 --> 00:10:17,509
但已在峰值迅速回落

362
00:10:17,509 --> 00:10:18,549
就在几天前

363
00:10:18,549 --> 00:10:22,068
软件股一度逼近年线11%

364
00:10:22,068 --> 00:10:22,509
现在

365
00:10:22,509 --> 00:10:24,288
已回调23%

366
00:10:24,288 --> 00:10:28,048
这个领域破灭了许多希望

367
00:10:28,048 --> 00:10:30,950
我观察甲骨文的走势

368
00:10:30,950 --> 00:10:32,809
看到这些回落动作

369
00:10:32,809 --> 00:10:35,769
仍在持续下探

370
00:10:35,769 --> 00:10:38,970
远低于我预期的价位，我基本坐在这里

371
00:10:38,970 --> 00:10:41,318
在问为什么科技股现在

372
00:10:41,318 --> 00:10:42,418
太混乱了

373
00:10:42,418 --> 00:10:43,158
技术面而言

374
00:10:43,158 --> 00:10:44,719
还有太多其他因素在起作用

375
00:10:44,719 --> 00:10:45,860
我想重点强调

376
00:10:45,860 --> 00:10:46,299
呃

377
00:10:46,299 --> 00:10:47,639
我们聊过凯西的案例

378
00:10:47,639 --> 00:10:50,460
这是波特豪斯持仓和最佳标的

379
00:10:50,460 --> 00:10:51,769
这挺有意思的

380
00:10:51,769 --> 00:10:53,509
这段录音很清晰

381
00:10:53,509 --> 00:10:54,049
呃

382
00:10:54,049 --> 00:10:56,529
市场即将迎来强劲反弹前

383
00:10:56,529 --> 00:10:57,289
所以这就是

384
00:10:57,289 --> 00:10:58,549
这其实很重要

385
00:10:58,549 --> 00:10:59,980
我们整年都在讨论

386
00:10:59,980 --> 00:11:01,899
其实就是内布拉斯加州的披萨店

387
00:11:01,899 --> 00:11:03,580
我甚至不知道背后的故事

388
00:11:03,580 --> 00:11:04,059
除了

389
00:11:04,059 --> 00:11:05,779
只是油价上涨

390
00:11:05,779 --> 00:11:07,220
更多营收增长

391
00:11:07,220 --> 00:11:08,500
市场对这只股票的反应

392
00:11:08,500 --> 00:11:10,960
昨日因财报上涨15%

393
00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:13,960
嘿嘿嘿听好了听好了

394
00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:14,639
你要不要来点

395
00:11:14,639 --> 00:11:16,019
你要不要来点见解

396
00:11:16,019 --> 00:11:17,019
我给你点见解

397
00:11:17,019 --> 00:11:18,370
见解

398
00:11:18,850 --> 00:11:19,750
加油站

399
00:11:19,750 --> 00:11:21,529
如果你经营良好的加油站

400
00:11:21,529 --> 00:11:25,860
在经历油价剧烈波动的周期

401
00:11:26,100 --> 00:11:27,659
我们曾经赚得盆满钵满

402
00:11:27,659 --> 00:11:29,659
我们赚过很多很多钱

403
00:11:29,659 --> 00:11:30,600
那简直令人作呕

404
00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:31,500
巨额奖金

405
00:11:31,500 --> 00:11:33,100
发放巨额奖金

406
00:11:33,100 --> 00:11:38,309
因为当油价突然上涨时可能发生这种情况

407
00:11:38,309 --> 00:11:39,149
就像一堆人

408
00:11:39,149 --> 00:11:41,919
没错很多时候你可以对冲这种风险

409
00:11:41,919 --> 00:11:44,039
如果你在一家顶级优质公司工作

410
00:11:44,039 --> 00:11:45,580
对就像我以前的公司

411
00:11:45,580 --> 00:11:46,399
我曾经工作过

412
00:11:46,399 --> 00:11:47,779
我们有一个完整的对冲部门

413
00:11:47,779 --> 00:11:48,818
我甚至考虑过

414
00:11:48,818 --> 00:11:49,458
呃

415
00:11:49,458 --> 00:11:50,619
申请去那里工作

416
00:11:50,619 --> 00:11:53,798
但显然我离开了公司转而专注于打造自己的事业

417
00:11:53,798 --> 00:11:55,450
但呃

418
00:11:55,850 --> 00:11:57,250
有趣的是

419
00:11:57,250 --> 00:11:58,330
当油价飙升时

420
00:11:58,330 --> 00:12:02,289
大型加油站通常会立即提价

421
00:12:02,289 --> 00:12:05,039
当油价开始下跌时

422
00:12:05,039 --> 00:12:05,940
呃

423
00:12:05,940 --> 00:12:09,200
通常价格不会迅速下调

424
00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:14,909
因此这些时期他们获得的利润率通常是公司最好的

425
00:12:14,909 --> 00:12:16,330
这些公司从未见过

426
00:12:16,330 --> 00:12:17,809
他们通常更难

427
00:12:17,809 --> 00:12:19,129
当油价停滞时

428
00:12:19,129 --> 00:12:21,068
因为市场会变得更加竞争

429
00:12:21,068 --> 00:12:22,349
价格趋于稳定

430
00:12:22,349 --> 00:12:23,828
对他们来说更艰难

431
00:12:23,828 --> 00:12:25,869
所以这点值得记住

432
00:12:25,869 --> 00:12:29,240
所以我能理解为何这最近成为投资标的

433
00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:30,120
作为绩优股

434
00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:32,299
本周标普五百指数

435
00:12:32,299 --> 00:12:36,129
录影带中有很多凯西超市

436
00:12:36,129 --> 00:12:40,389
我们不必只关注微小波动

437
00:12:40,389 --> 00:12:43,590
我认为每天都有很多机会

438
00:12:43,590 --> 00:12:46,120
星巴克上周上涨7%

439
00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:46,759
呃

440
00:12:46,759 --> 00:12:48,120
达丹上涨8%

441
00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:48,899
百思买

442
00:12:48,899 --> 00:12:49,120
相信吧

443
00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:50,220
或者七成

444
00:12:50,220 --> 00:12:51,460
上涨七成

445
00:12:51,460 --> 00:12:53,360
有赚钱的机会

446
00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:55,639
每个行业都有赢家

447
00:12:55,639 --> 00:12:56,279
在市场中

448
00:12:56,279 --> 00:12:57,440
在生物科技领域

449
00:12:57,440 --> 00:12:57,659
是的

450
00:12:57,659 --> 00:12:58,519
但出于尊重

451
00:12:58,519 --> 00:13:03,450
乔什·布朗的美光科技今天一天给你带来了12%的涨幅

452
00:13:03,769 --> 00:13:06,389
这就是当所有人都说要冒险投资时会发生的事

453
00:13:06,389 --> 00:13:07,450
这就是我告诉你们的原因

454
00:13:07,450 --> 00:13:07,809
我当时提醒过你们

455
00:13:07,809 --> 00:13:08,750
你们上周

456
00:13:08,750 --> 00:13:09,350
我说过

457
00:13:09,350 --> 00:13:10,289
小心注意

458
00:13:10,289 --> 00:13:10,809
你知道的

459
00:13:10,809 --> 00:13:11,889
这些人上周五

460
00:13:11,889 --> 00:13:12,509
试图

461
00:13:12,509 --> 00:13:13,210
你知道的

462
00:13:13,210 --> 00:13:18,340
想把像AMD和美光这样的股票扔进垃圾堆

463
00:13:18,340 --> 00:13:19,700
这波操作已经结束

464
00:13:19,700 --> 00:13:20,220
我说哥们

465
00:13:20,220 --> 00:13:23,500
这些股票下周可能暴涨30%

466
00:13:23,659 --> 00:13:24,940
这就是变化的速度

467
00:13:26,059 --> 00:13:26,980
D公司的死亡

468
00:13:26,980 --> 00:13:29,200
美光科技的死亡被严重夸大了

469
00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:32,580
这些股票可能六个月翻倍

470
00:13:32,580 --> 00:13:33,820
从这里开始翻倍

471
00:13:33,820 --> 00:13:35,720
我可不是说一定会发生

472
00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:36,500
我只是说

473
00:13:36,500 --> 00:13:37,100
如果美光从900涨到1800

474
00:13:37,100 --> 00:13:40,629
你会不会感到惊讶

475
00:13:40,629 --> 00:13:41,929
如果美光从

476
00:13:41,929 --> 00:13:45,950
45美元涨到900美元在接下来六个月

477
00:13:46,350 --> 00:13:47,850
为什么我要惊讶

478
00:13:47,850 --> 00:13:48,570
它们确实

479
00:13:48,570 --> 00:13:50,909
它们的商业模式有重大基本面变化

480
00:13:50,909 --> 00:13:53,629
未来几年数据会非常惊人

481
00:13:54,639 --> 00:13:56,220
你知道的

482
00:13:56,220 --> 00:13:57,419
我完全不觉得意外

483
00:13:57,419 --> 00:13:58,440
而且它们有强劲动能

484
00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:01,279
这就是接下来一段时间的投资策略

485
00:14:01,279 --> 00:14:03,370
没错，之后趋势会转变

486
00:14:03,370 --> 00:14:05,169
可能会转向一些SaaS股票

487
00:14:05,169 --> 00:14:07,210
这些股票将成为长期受益者

488
00:14:07,210 --> 00:14:11,318
比如Salesforce和ServiceNow这类股票可能会后续上涨

489
00:14:11,318 --> 00:14:12,979
但现阶段是它们的主场

490
00:14:12,979 --> 00:14:17,480
我们上周七连涨在派对上尽兴

491
00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:18,389
所以啊

492
00:14:18,389 --> 00:14:20,070
这就是我关注的重点法官

493
00:14:20,070 --> 00:14:23,809
我不太纠结科技股能持续多久

494
00:14:23,809 --> 00:14:25,429
这还没让我失去兴趣

495
00:14:25,429 --> 00:14:28,009
毕竟它们已经跌到足够低

496
00:14:28,009 --> 00:14:28,629
这就够了

497
00:14:28,629 --> 00:14:31,970
我们没问题，我不觉得市场像空头说的那么糟糕

498
00:14:31,970 --> 00:14:35,078
我认为珍妮·比尔 largely 同意

499
00:14:35,078 --> 00:14:35,859
你知道的

500
00:14:35,859 --> 00:14:39,139
现在买入被低估的科技股还为时过早

501
00:14:39,139 --> 00:14:41,090
他们说现在是价值投资的时候了

502
00:14:41,090 --> 00:14:46,210
他指出了一些真正处于争论核心的股票

503
00:14:46,210 --> 00:14:46,970
现在这个时候

504
00:14:46,970 --> 00:14:48,379
通过科技股的回调

505
00:14:48,379 --> 00:14:56,100
或者通过那些价格合理却被几乎遗忘的投资标的

506
00:14:56,100 --> 00:14:58,009
在这波大幅上涨中

507
00:14:58,009 --> 00:15:02,350
没错，我觉得这部分资金已经大量流入了

508
00:15:02,350 --> 00:15:03,769
对我来说

509
00:15:03,769 --> 00:15:04,850
我审视投资组合

510
00:15:04,850 --> 00:15:07,759
我持有的股票涨幅已达60%

511
00:15:07,759 --> 00:15:08,980
年内涨幅80%

512
00:15:08,980 --> 00:15:10,899
还有一些我们没提到的标的

513
00:15:10,899 --> 00:15:12,460
比如瑞曼酒店

514
00:15:12,460 --> 00:15:14,159
房地产公司和拉马广告

515
00:15:14,159 --> 00:15:15,019
这类展示广告牌的企业

516
00:15:15,019 --> 00:15:16,440
在我们的增长策略中

517
00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:19,399
这家材料公司

518
00:15:19,399 --> 00:15:20,960
或阿尔巴尼投资

519
00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:21,940
阿尔巴尼国际

520
00:15:21,940 --> 00:15:23,720
这类碳纤维材料企业

521
00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:24,328
嗯

522
00:15:24,328 --> 00:15:25,649
市场机会还有很多

523
00:15:25,649 --> 00:15:26,448
所以我有些担心

524
00:15:26,448 --> 00:15:27,208
稍微有点

525
00:15:27,208 --> 00:15:33,000
斯科特，价值投资的转向已经开始

526
00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:37,039
而且这种繁荣可能已见顶

527
00:15:37,039 --> 00:15:38,419
我认为仍有上涨空间

528
00:15:38,419 --> 00:15:40,419
但说实话，我完全同意乔什的观点

529
00:15:40,419 --> 00:15:41,320
同时我也认为

530
00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:43,340
当我们看到魔七指数下跌时

531
00:15:43,340 --> 00:15:44,639
我觉得更像是持平

532
00:15:44,639 --> 00:15:46,080
这其实很健康

533
00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:47,059
正如你所说

534
00:15:47,059 --> 00:15:47,360
没错

535
00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:49,559
现在市场混乱程度很高

536
00:15:49,559 --> 00:15:52,549
他们从现金流生产者变为消耗者

537
00:15:52,549 --> 00:15:53,110
嗯

538
00:15:53,110 --> 00:15:54,370
整个世界都在变化

539
00:15:54,370 --> 00:15:56,389
所以我对他们的发展感到非常乐观

540
00:15:56,389 --> 00:15:57,389
保持平稳状态

541
00:15:57,389 --> 00:15:59,759
我认为这并非非此即彼

542
00:15:59,759 --> 00:16:01,240
或好或坏

543
00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:02,539
让他们巩固阵脚

544
00:16:02,539 --> 00:16:04,100
让他们成长以匹配估值

545
00:16:04,100 --> 00:16:04,639
他们正在这么做

546
00:16:04,639 --> 00:16:06,019
我认为这极其健康

547
00:16:06,019 --> 00:16:08,379
如果你有新资金

548
00:16:08,379 --> 00:16:08,919
你知道的

549
00:16:08,919 --> 00:16:11,500
或许可以继续扩大布局

550
00:16:11,500 --> 00:16:12,679
尽管这已经发生

551
00:16:12,679 --> 00:16:13,279
但我不

552
00:16:13,279 --> 00:16:14,500
我不认为你会得到

553
00:16:14,500 --> 00:16:14,980
我不知道

554
00:16:14,980 --> 00:16:15,899
我观察它

555
00:16:15,899 --> 00:16:18,039
我就像有些东西涨得太高了

556
00:16:18,039 --> 00:16:19,700
我宁愿六个月前就入场

557
00:16:19,700 --> 00:16:20,340
巨量涨势

558
00:16:20,340 --> 00:16:20,980
不是平盘

559
00:16:20,980 --> 00:16:22,870
你要看百分比

560
00:16:22,870 --> 00:16:24,450
它们偏离了52周高点

561
00:16:24,450 --> 00:16:25,009
啊对啊

562
00:16:25,009 --> 00:16:26,690
说到磁七

563
00:16:27,210 --> 00:16:29,429
微软的27在最后五十

564
00:16:29,429 --> 00:16:29,870
两周时间

565
00:16:29,870 --> 00:16:30,610
在最高点

566
00:16:30,610 --> 00:16:32,250
瑞特下跌了两

567
00:16:32,250 --> 00:16:34,029
七个百分点低于五

568
00:16:34,029 --> 00:16:34,990
两周高点

569
00:16:34,990 --> 00:16:36,789
亚马逊下跌十二个百分点，英伟达

570
00:16:36,789 --> 00:16:38,529
它们都大幅下跌

571
00:16:38,529 --> 00:16:39,570
低于五

572
00:16:39,570 --> 00:16:40,309
两周高点

573
00:16:40,309 --> 00:16:42,710
这显示了

574
00:16:42,710 --> 00:16:43,309
你知道的

575
00:16:43,309 --> 00:16:48,289
市场上最重部分的抛售情况

576
00:16:48,289 --> 00:16:52,919
我不知道你对逢低买入的机会怎么看

577
00:16:52,919 --> 00:16:53,580
在这个阶段

578
00:16:53,580 --> 00:16:56,100
我觉得我们都在等待抄底者

579
00:16:56,100 --> 00:16:58,250
展示他们的策略

580
00:16:59,259 --> 00:17:01,500
目前缺乏足够信心

581
00:17:01,500 --> 00:17:03,200
当我们突破顶部时

582
00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:07,778
我认为目前缺乏信心是件好事

583
00:17:07,778 --> 00:17:11,919
但同样我认为这些大多未充分回调

584
00:17:11,919 --> 00:17:14,490
请记住我们持有大量这些

585
00:17:14,490 --> 00:17:17,559
我们正在与客户讨论建仓

586
00:17:17,559 --> 00:17:19,380
到我们的成长型投资组合

587
00:17:19,380 --> 00:17:23,319
在合适时机加入分红型组合

588
00:17:23,319 --> 00:17:26,259
有时需要五个百分点回调

589
00:17:26,259 --> 00:17:29,199
唯一实现这一点的是科技板块

590
00:17:29,199 --> 00:17:31,038
所以我们抓住了机会

591
00:17:31,038 --> 00:17:33,150
我们稍后节目会讨论

592
00:17:33,150 --> 00:17:36,029
这比通常更精准

593
00:17:36,029 --> 00:17:41,849
毫无疑问，今年以来市场由财报驱动

594
00:17:41,849 --> 00:17:45,569
表现好的自然应该表现好

595
00:17:45,569 --> 00:17:50,220
因为这是盈利增长影响最大的领域

596
00:17:50,220 --> 00:17:51,279
有趣的是

597
00:17:51,279 --> 00:17:54,099
他们提到的再评级现象

598
00:17:54,099 --> 00:17:55,000
你知道的

599
00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:58,799
标普500中40%的股票年内下跌

600
00:17:58,799 --> 00:18:01,299
这形成了非常有趣的两极分化

601
00:18:01,299 --> 00:18:03,789
所以我确实认为这有点健康

602
00:18:03,789 --> 00:18:04,789
这件事正在发生

603
00:18:04,789 --> 00:18:08,309
你为什么不觉得这些名字已经跌得足够多了

604
00:18:08,309 --> 00:18:09,210
如果你

605
00:18:09,210 --> 00:18:13,829
如果你指出这是由盈利驱动的举动

606
00:18:13,829 --> 00:18:14,930
首先

607
00:18:14,930 --> 00:18:18,970
全球微芯和漫威等公司股价上涨

608
00:18:18,970 --> 00:18:20,049
它们就是这样直线上涨的

609
00:18:20,049 --> 00:18:21,069
并向右

610
00:18:21,069 --> 00:18:26,250
是因为它们的盈利为这些股票带来了新范式

611
00:18:26,250 --> 00:18:31,460
让人们意识到他们低估了盈利

612
00:18:31,460 --> 00:18:33,950
它们展现出的这种势头

613
00:18:33,950 --> 00:18:35,329
如果它们已经回调

614
00:18:35,329 --> 00:18:38,750
让你相信它们仍有支撑是因为距离足够远

615
00:18:38,750 --> 00:18:41,829
因为代币经济讨论已进入讨论

616
00:18:41,829 --> 00:18:42,869
这就是那个

617
00:18:42,869 --> 00:18:43,549
这才是真正的

618
00:18:43,549 --> 00:18:45,150
这就是这里的轮子

619
00:18:45,150 --> 00:18:46,789
我认为这里的关键点是

620
00:18:46,789 --> 00:18:49,380
当你对终端价值定价时

621
00:18:49,380 --> 00:18:52,880
并基于极高盈利期进行估值

622
00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:55,670
其中部分盈利由销售驱动

623
00:18:55,670 --> 00:18:58,450
没错那里仍有健康的有机盈利增长

624
00:18:58,450 --> 00:19:02,699
但仍有私有销售带来的利润

625
00:19:02,699 --> 00:19:08,559
我想有时我们会提前将热情注入

626
00:19:08,559 --> 00:19:09,720
如果这样理解

627
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:10,359
这确实如此

628
00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:13,680
你知道我们之前对全球微芯所做的

629
00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:18,170
我们曾短暂讨论现在要重新评估和重估

630
00:19:18,170 --> 00:19:23,049
或我认为更可持续的盈利增长轨迹

631
00:19:23,049 --> 00:19:26,569
我认为会更广泛分布

632
00:19:26,569 --> 00:19:29,349
我认为仍可以对股票持建设性态度

633
00:19:29,349 --> 00:19:30,309
但要诚实说

634
00:19:30,309 --> 00:19:32,920
我们正进入季节性弱势期

635
00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:36,859
地缘政治紧张局势正在推高利率

636
00:19:36,859 --> 00:19:38,819
处于相对平静的财报期

637
00:19:38,819 --> 00:19:42,509
通常会有因素来拯救局面

638
00:19:42,509 --> 00:19:43,789
拯救这一天

639
00:19:43,789 --> 00:19:44,890
在此期间

640
00:19:44,890 --> 00:19:47,529
中期选举即将到来

641
00:19:47,529 --> 00:19:51,420
还有几大IPO即将上市

642
00:19:51,420 --> 00:19:55,359
现实是供应正在涌入市场

643
00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:57,890
这就是市场消化过程

644
00:19:57,890 --> 00:19:59,450
这不是负面情绪

645
00:19:59,450 --> 00:20:02,559
我想重点回应甲骨文

646
00:20:02,559 --> 00:20:03,220
例如

647
00:20:03,220 --> 00:20:04,180
宣布支出计划

648
00:20:04,180 --> 00:20:04,640
是的

649
00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:06,220
如果你经营一家私营公司

650
00:20:06,220 --> 00:20:09,650
这就是我喜欢投资私营公司的原因

651
00:20:09,650 --> 00:20:12,509
你不需要逐季度管理

652
00:20:12,509 --> 00:20:15,250
所以当你看到长期机会

653
00:20:15,250 --> 00:20:19,829
这将改变你业务的roe特征

654
00:20:19,829 --> 00:20:22,190
就像我们在新边科技一直做的那样

655
00:20:22,190 --> 00:20:24,369
我们将进行这项投资

656
00:20:24,369 --> 00:20:26,509
即使有季度影响

657
00:20:26,509 --> 00:20:30,630
像甲骨文这样的公司会公开表示我们承诺这项支出

658
00:20:30,630 --> 00:20:33,049
因为我们深知这是军备竞赛

659
00:20:33,049 --> 00:20:34,049
我们要赢得这场竞争

660
00:20:34,049 --> 00:20:35,250
他们实际取得了好成绩

661
00:20:35,250 --> 00:20:36,529
我不持有甲骨文股票

662
00:20:36,529 --> 00:20:38,210
我只是用他们举例

663
00:20:38,210 --> 00:20:40,029
市场会进行惩罚

664
00:20:40,029 --> 00:20:44,170
这反而给你机会介入

665
00:20:44,170 --> 00:20:45,089
我的意思是

666
00:20:45,089 --> 00:20:45,609
就是

667
00:20:45,609 --> 00:20:46,710
你可以这么说

668
00:20:46,710 --> 00:20:48,930
这是正当的惩罚

669
00:20:48,930 --> 00:20:49,309
我是说

670
00:20:49,309 --> 00:20:49,490
你

671
00:20:49,490 --> 00:20:50,910
通过这些股权发行

672
00:20:50,910 --> 00:20:51,670
这是误导的

673
00:20:51,670 --> 00:20:55,809
显然人们已对甲骨文的债务表示担忧

674
00:20:55,809 --> 00:20:56,650
现在

675
00:20:56,650 --> 00:20:57,809
这是股权融资

676
00:20:57,809 --> 00:21:02,829
核心在于他们的支出机器正在加速而非放缓

677
00:21:02,829 --> 00:21:04,759
或许我可以

678
00:21:04,759 --> 00:21:07,420
过去两周发生根本变化的是

679
00:21:07,420 --> 00:21:11,430
关于计算价格的讨论

680
00:21:11,430 --> 00:21:12,029
没错

681
00:21:12,029 --> 00:21:12,829
这些工作负载的价值

682
00:21:12,829 --> 00:21:15,529
这些工作负载的价值

683
00:21:15,529 --> 00:21:17,559
我们现在将

684
00:21:17,559 --> 00:21:19,039
我认为后半段故事

685
00:21:19,039 --> 00:21:21,220
你会在收盘铃响时看到

686
00:21:21,220 --> 00:21:22,920
会有人不断问这是什么

687
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:24,500
我现在要告诉你们什么

688
00:21:24,500 --> 00:21:26,529
接下来会发生的是

689
00:21:26,529 --> 00:21:30,900
我们将区分高端计算使用

690
00:21:30,900 --> 00:21:34,079
与廉价低效计算使用

691
00:21:34,079 --> 00:21:36,789
不需要相同

692
00:21:36,789 --> 00:21:39,950
相同的计算定价

693
00:21:39,950 --> 00:21:41,289
也不需要相同

694
00:21:41,289 --> 00:21:43,450
相同的计算量

695
00:21:43,450 --> 00:21:44,328
所以我

696
00:21:44,328 --> 00:21:47,548
查找肉酱意面食谱

697
00:21:47,548 --> 00:21:51,749
不应在数据中心同一区域运行

698
00:21:51,749 --> 00:21:54,309
使用与NASA相同的芯片

699
00:21:54,309 --> 00:21:58,009
计算卫星发射轨道

700
00:21:58,009 --> 00:22:03,180
但这就是AI基建启动的现状

701
00:22:03,180 --> 00:22:05,959
因为这就像刚开始分化一样

702
00:22:05,959 --> 00:22:06,278
实际上

703
00:22:06,278 --> 00:22:06,999
你现在

704
00:22:06,999 --> 00:22:07,838
就是这个道理

705
00:22:07,838 --> 00:22:08,699
完全正确

706
00:22:08,699 --> 00:22:11,329
现在我们将开始看到

707
00:22:11,329 --> 00:22:13,039
富人与穷人阶层

708
00:22:13,039 --> 00:22:15,720
我们将看到亚当·斯密经济学

709
00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:16,779
开始起作用

710
00:22:16,779 --> 00:22:18,720
影响所有活动

711
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:21,849
公司开始理性思考

712
00:22:22,009 --> 00:22:24,809
为什么我们要为所有AI使用买单

713
00:22:24,809 --> 00:22:26,230
这就像一刀切

714
00:22:26,230 --> 00:22:26,630
是的

715
00:22:26,630 --> 00:22:28,549
随便输入你想查询的内容

716
00:22:28,549 --> 00:22:31,339
我们会一视同仁计算所有算力

717
00:22:31,339 --> 00:22:33,279
所以你在股票价格中看到的

718
00:22:33,279 --> 00:22:34,980
我们不是科技节目

719
00:22:34,980 --> 00:22:35,900
我们是股票节目

720
00:22:35,900 --> 00:22:37,420
你在股票价格中看到的

721
00:22:37,420 --> 00:22:43,890
我们认为我们真的会有预期规模的内存需求吗

722
00:22:43,890 --> 00:22:47,769
我们真的会以相同方式使用芯片吗

723
00:22:47,769 --> 00:22:51,519
突然理性经济开始主导

724
00:22:51,519 --> 00:22:54,759
你将看到我们预测的盈利增长

725
00:22:54,759 --> 00:22:56,898
而我们认为

726
00:22:57,430 --> 00:22:57,890
是的

727
00:22:57,890 --> 00:22:59,829
他在这一点上完全正确

728
00:22:59,829 --> 00:23:00,630
毫无疑问正确

729
00:23:00,630 --> 00:23:03,130
这是周期中的自然现象

730
00:23:03,130 --> 00:23:03,470
没错

731
00:23:03,470 --> 00:23:06,469
起初大家都认为一切相同

732
00:23:06,469 --> 00:23:08,729
随着时间推移

733
00:23:08,729 --> 00:23:09,729
逐渐清晰

734
00:23:09,729 --> 00:23:10,148
就像这样

735
00:23:10,148 --> 00:23:10,709
这张传单

736
00:23:10,709 --> 00:23:12,599
即使在云计算领域

737
00:23:12,599 --> 00:23:13,599
没错

738
00:23:13,599 --> 00:23:14,599
就像云服务

739
00:23:14,599 --> 00:23:15,980
这真的被过度炒作

740
00:23:15,980 --> 00:23:17,119
被广泛讨论的事物

741
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:18,679
云服务将非常庞大

742
00:23:18,679 --> 00:23:19,759
规模会极大

743
00:23:19,759 --> 00:23:26,039
没错，那正是云服务兴起时

744
00:23:26,039 --> 00:23:26,859
确实如此

745
00:23:26,859 --> 00:23:29,250
我对此记忆犹新

746
00:23:29,250 --> 00:23:30,970
大约二十

747
00:23:30,970 --> 00:23:36,369
从2010到2013年左右

748
00:23:36,369 --> 00:23:38,170
2010到2013年左右

749
00:23:38,170 --> 00:23:40,118
我记得在CNBC

750
00:23:40,118 --> 00:23:42,818
大家都在谈论云云云

751
00:23:42,818 --> 00:23:44,078
云领域的主要玩家是谁

752
00:23:44,078 --> 00:23:47,599
当时有很多私营公司，还有一些上市公司

753
00:23:47,599 --> 00:23:49,480
但云计算是下一个前沿领域

754
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:50,880
这是科技领域的下一个大趋势

755
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:51,980
这将会非常巨大

756
00:23:51,980 --> 00:23:53,599
准备好迎接这波浪潮

757
00:23:53,599 --> 00:24:00,019
没错，当时很有趣，因为有很多云公司

758
00:24:00,019 --> 00:24:02,538
大家都在试图弄清楚哪些是真正的云公司

759
00:24:02,538 --> 00:24:04,500
比如像Dropbox这样的公司

760
00:24:04,500 --> 00:24:07,220
还有一个叫Box的公司

761
00:24:07,220 --> 00:24:09,000
还有亚马逊对吧

762
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:11,440
谷歌当时并不被视为云公司

763
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:17,339
那时候微软也在其中，甚至微软的地位都存疑

764
00:24:17,339 --> 00:24:18,759
如果这真的算是云服务的话

765
00:24:18,759 --> 00:24:23,298
回溯到那时，还有一些其他竞争者

766
00:24:23,298 --> 00:24:29,369
最终最大的赢家显然是亚马逊的AWS

767
00:24:29,369 --> 00:24:29,670
没错

768
00:24:29,670 --> 00:24:32,269
但当时很难预测

769
00:24:32,269 --> 00:24:36,109
谁能成为最终赢家，鸡尾酒晚宴的幸运儿

770
00:24:36,109 --> 00:24:37,910
像Box和Dropbox这样的公司

771
00:24:37,910 --> 00:24:41,659
以及许多类似公司最终只是小角色

772
00:24:41,659 --> 00:24:44,479
最终亚马逊真正成为领头羊

773
00:24:44,479 --> 00:24:47,940
而第二大领头羊则成为微软

774
00:24:47,940 --> 00:24:49,660
而回溯到那时

775
00:24:49,660 --> 00:24:53,059
我不记得微软当时被提及云领域

776
00:24:53,059 --> 00:24:54,960
比如2010到2013年间

777
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:58,339
我记得大家都在谈论微软作为云领域的玩家

778
00:24:58,339 --> 00:24:59,700
他们最终成为第二大

779
00:24:59,700 --> 00:25:04,829
现在很难预测

780
00:25:04,829 --> 00:25:07,250
谁会成为最大赢家

781
00:25:07,250 --> 00:25:10,329
在接下来的15到20年AI领域

782
00:25:10,329 --> 00:25:13,549
这正是需要押注的时期

783
00:25:13,549 --> 00:25:15,950
下注并尝试弄清楚

784
00:25:15,950 --> 00:25:18,459
但不会完全清晰

785
00:25:18,459 --> 00:25:19,778
至少在短期内

786
00:25:19,778 --> 00:25:21,358
谁会成为最大赢家

787
00:25:21,358 --> 00:25:22,638
可以假设这家公司

788
00:25:22,638 --> 00:25:23,559
那家公司

789
00:25:23,559 --> 00:25:24,299
只有这些公司

790
00:25:24,299 --> 00:25:25,509
我们确定无疑

791
00:25:25,509 --> 00:25:27,970
这也是这些公司持续增长的原因

792
00:25:27,970 --> 00:25:30,369
因为它们有坚实的基础支撑

793
00:25:30,369 --> 00:25:32,990
我们确定它们会从中赚取巨额利润

794
00:25:32,990 --> 00:25:37,049
或者像AMD、美光、英伟达

795
00:25:37,049 --> 00:25:38,069
这类公司对吧

796
00:25:38,069 --> 00:25:40,819
这些是确定的赢家

797
00:25:40,819 --> 00:25:42,440
别无选择

798
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:44,140
还可以加入博通

799
00:25:44,140 --> 00:25:45,000
以及这些公司

800
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:47,759
这些就是确定的受益者

801
00:25:47,759 --> 00:25:50,490
头部之外的争议尚在讨论

802
00:25:50,490 --> 00:25:53,630
人工智能公司是否会成为万亿级企业

803
00:25:53,630 --> 00:25:54,509
是OpenAI

804
00:25:54,509 --> 00:25:55,809
是否会成为万亿级企业

805
00:25:55,809 --> 00:25:58,299
因为这些公司需要

806
00:25:58,299 --> 00:25:59,839
因为它们在估值上

807
00:25:59,839 --> 00:26:01,240
需要成长为五万亿美元

808
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:02,079
十万亿级企业

809
00:26:02,079 --> 00:26:02,839
它们会达到这个规模吗

810
00:26:02,839 --> 00:26:03,220
我不确定

811
00:26:03,220 --> 00:26:03,700
拭目以待

812
00:26:03,700 --> 00:26:06,680
他们可能对吧谷歌

813
00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:07,799
然后还有亚马逊

814
00:26:07,799 --> 00:26:08,779
然后还有所有这些

815
00:26:08,779 --> 00:26:12,680
你知道的企业级玩家

816
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:13,259
如服务领域

817
00:26:13,259 --> 00:26:13,559
现在

818
00:26:13,559 --> 00:26:14,680
如Salesforce等

819
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:16,519
所以将会是

820
00:26:16,519 --> 00:26:18,500
将会是混沌局面

821
00:26:18,500 --> 00:26:19,339
对于

822
00:26:19,339 --> 00:26:21,609
大概未来两到三年

823
00:26:21,609 --> 00:26:25,029
等到2030年左右

824
00:26:25,029 --> 00:26:27,460
将逐渐清晰

825
00:26:27,700 --> 00:26:30,059
谁才是真正的最大赢家

826
00:26:30,059 --> 00:26:34,400
你以为会是大赢家的公司未必会

827
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:38,059
最终可能成为巨型企业

828
00:26:38,059 --> 00:26:38,519
你会惊讶

829
00:26:38,519 --> 00:26:39,190
哇

830
00:26:39,190 --> 00:26:42,930
这家公司竟成最大赢家

831
00:26:42,930 --> 00:26:43,490
早上好

832
00:26:43,490 --> 00:26:45,650
人们难以真正理解

833
00:26:45,650 --> 00:26:47,710
鉴于我们从低点的走势

834
00:26:47,710 --> 00:26:51,910
或许恐慌性跟风和泡沫仍在前方

835
00:26:51,910 --> 00:26:53,289
你认为这在前方吗

836
00:26:53,289 --> 00:26:55,029
已经开始

837
00:26:55,029 --> 00:26:55,950
但实际

838
00:26:55,950 --> 00:26:57,829
观察过去五天

839
00:26:57,829 --> 00:27:00,710
市场情绪的收敛

840
00:27:00,710 --> 00:27:05,039
以及最近五天的谨慎态度

841
00:27:05,039 --> 00:27:08,180
真正的恐慌性买入

842
00:27:08,180 --> 00:27:11,299
不顾一切的疯狂抢购

843
00:27:11,299 --> 00:27:12,539
无论怎样

844
00:27:12,539 --> 00:27:15,890
我仍认为这可能还在前方

845
00:27:15,890 --> 00:27:17,630
但若仔细想想

846
00:27:17,630 --> 00:27:19,950
市场正在充分消化

847
00:27:19,950 --> 00:27:20,490
这一切

848
00:27:20,490 --> 00:27:21,309
相当到位

849
00:27:21,309 --> 00:27:23,730
想想我们面对的头条新闻

850
00:27:23,730 --> 00:27:24,390
今早

851
00:27:26,349 --> 00:27:27,289
我们有了

852
00:27:27,289 --> 00:27:32,599
你知道那家顶级AI公司正在谈论价格战

853
00:27:32,599 --> 00:27:33,720
我们有

854
00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:39,000
你知道那个标志性软件公司正在处理

855
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:40,700
你知道资本支出问题

856
00:27:40,700 --> 00:27:41,940
所有这些负面

857
00:27:41,940 --> 00:27:45,380
然而股市异常坚韧

858
00:27:45,380 --> 00:27:47,700
面对一个真正的历史性时刻

859
00:27:47,700 --> 00:27:48,420
当我这么说的时候

860
00:27:48,420 --> 00:27:50,599
这是我真正想用那个反应的部分

861
00:27:50,599 --> 00:27:51,039
具体来说

862
00:27:51,039 --> 00:27:54,150
那里杰里安曼德尔的片段确实

863
00:27:54,150 --> 00:27:55,809
让我问你一个问题

864
00:27:55,809 --> 00:27:57,990
我认为这是个严肃的问题

865
00:27:59,189 --> 00:28:01,288
市场哪里出现了跟风效应

866
00:28:01,288 --> 00:28:03,189
哪里有

867
00:28:04,259 --> 00:28:05,859
我看不出来

868
00:28:05,859 --> 00:28:09,269
我看那些股票中绝大多数

869
00:28:09,269 --> 00:28:10,789
我跟踪或接近五十

870
00:28:10,789 --> 00:28:12,329
两周低点或多年低点

871
00:28:12,329 --> 00:28:13,589
更接近这个而非五

872
00:28:13,589 --> 00:28:14,869
两周高点和多年高点

873
00:28:14,869 --> 00:28:16,388
我可以告诉你

874
00:28:16,388 --> 00:28:19,788
即使你看那些大幅波动的股票

875
00:28:19,788 --> 00:28:20,729
比如美光科技

876
00:28:20,729 --> 00:28:21,568
比如AMD

877
00:28:21,568 --> 00:28:22,929
这类股票

878
00:28:22,929 --> 00:28:25,729
关于它们有上千个问题，比如

879
00:28:25,729 --> 00:28:27,769
我不知道这还能持续多久

880
00:28:27,769 --> 00:28:28,769
赢得榜首

881
00:28:28,769 --> 00:28:30,130
大家似乎都在从

882
00:28:30,130 --> 00:28:31,250
负面角度看待

883
00:28:31,250 --> 00:28:32,289
他们不仅从

884
00:28:32,289 --> 00:28:32,769
哇

885
00:28:32,769 --> 00:28:34,230
这些公司的财报表现惊人

886
00:28:34,230 --> 00:28:34,730
而且

887
00:28:34,730 --> 00:28:35,089
他们

888
00:28:35,089 --> 00:28:35,670
他们

889
00:28:35,670 --> 00:28:36,170
你知道的

890
00:28:36,170 --> 00:28:39,410
这些公司拥有CPU和GPU的巨大增长轨迹

891
00:28:39,410 --> 00:28:40,710
未来数年的需求依然强劲

892
00:28:40,710 --> 00:28:41,029
等等

893
00:28:41,029 --> 00:28:41,589
等等

894
00:28:41,589 --> 00:28:42,910
他们似乎在思考

895
00:28:42,910 --> 00:28:44,440
我不知道

896
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:45,670
啊似乎不对

897
00:28:45,670 --> 00:28:47,829
这不像泡沫

898
00:28:47,829 --> 00:28:49,430
如果只看正面因素

899
00:28:49,430 --> 00:28:49,630
那才不同

900
00:28:49,630 --> 00:28:50,029
我明白了

901
00:28:50,029 --> 00:28:51,730
但大家都在继续问这么多问题

902
00:28:51,730 --> 00:28:54,849
我不知道这种趋势还能持续多久

903
00:28:55,170 --> 00:28:55,869
在哪里呢

904
00:28:55,869 --> 00:28:58,869
关于科技股的FOMO效应其实并不明显

905
00:28:58,869 --> 00:28:59,710
如果我看看

906
00:28:59,710 --> 00:29:01,349
微软有没有FOMO效应

907
00:29:01,349 --> 00:29:04,650
苹果没有FOMO

908
00:29:04,650 --> 00:29:07,440
谷歌也没有FOMO

909
00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:08,180
有待商榷

910
00:29:08,180 --> 00:29:08,539
就是那个

911
00:29:08,539 --> 00:29:11,319
或许可以为亚马逊的FOMO找到论据

912
00:29:11,319 --> 00:29:11,700
不

913
00:29:11,700 --> 00:29:14,279
我认为亚马逊有合理的市场定位

914
00:29:14,279 --> 00:29:17,250
但我不觉得是Meta的FOMO

915
00:29:17,730 --> 00:29:20,230
和Meta完全相反

916
00:29:20,230 --> 00:29:24,569
特斯拉和FOMO以及特斯拉啊

917
00:29:24,569 --> 00:29:26,849
我正在思考所有万亿市值俱乐部

918
00:29:26,849 --> 00:29:27,670
还有我漏掉的吗

919
00:29:27,670 --> 00:29:28,490
英伟达

920
00:29:28,490 --> 00:29:29,289
甚至没有

921
00:29:29,289 --> 00:29:31,089
英伟达也没有FOMO

922
00:29:31,089 --> 00:29:32,089
英伟达

923
00:29:32,089 --> 00:29:32,690
你知道的

924
00:29:32,690 --> 00:29:36,839
英伟达去年的股价

925
00:29:36,839 --> 00:29:38,079
回到2025年

926
00:29:38,079 --> 00:29:42,150
股价曾两百多美元现在还是这个价

927
00:29:43,269 --> 00:29:44,029
就像

928
00:29:44,029 --> 00:29:44,650
很难说

929
00:29:44,650 --> 00:29:48,789
真正显示大盘强劲动量的只有美光科技

930
00:29:48,789 --> 00:29:50,150
AMD的产消业务

931
00:29:50,150 --> 00:29:51,099
这类股票

932
00:29:51,099 --> 00:29:52,720
但正如我说的有很多疑问

933
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:54,940
大家都在从负面角度看待

934
00:29:54,940 --> 00:29:56,099
这能持续吗

935
00:29:56,099 --> 00:29:56,259
是

936
00:29:56,259 --> 00:29:57,679
就是这样

937
00:29:57,679 --> 00:29:59,239
再深入分析

938
00:29:59,239 --> 00:30:00,239
哪里有FOMO

939
00:30:00,239 --> 00:30:01,858
比特币以太坊没有

940
00:30:01,858 --> 00:30:04,569
和FOMO完全相反

941
00:30:05,049 --> 00:30:06,210
好利来

942
00:30:06,210 --> 00:30:07,690
好利来股票

943
00:30:07,690 --> 00:30:09,089
我多年来一直提到的股票

944
00:30:09,089 --> 00:30:10,690
这可能是唯一有FOMO的股票

945
00:30:10,690 --> 00:30:12,170
在整个翻转和波动中

946
00:30:12,170 --> 00:30:13,339
股市好吧

947
00:30:13,339 --> 00:30:13,680
迈克

948
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:15,339
今天的部分亏损

949
00:30:15,339 --> 00:30:16,779
我们仍在观察轮动

950
00:30:16,779 --> 00:30:20,339
看起来可能是从科技领域转向了嗯

951
00:30:20,339 --> 00:30:21,039
或者别的什么

952
00:30:21,039 --> 00:30:24,640
也许投资者正在释放现金准备大规模ipo

953
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:25,279
你怎么看

954
00:30:27,769 --> 00:30:28,910
尤其是周五

955
00:30:28,910 --> 00:30:29,250
是啊

956
00:30:29,250 --> 00:30:29,410
我的意思是

957
00:30:29,410 --> 00:30:32,599
我认为首先过去一个月市场高度集中

958
00:30:32,599 --> 00:30:35,299
这是全年持续轮动的一部分

959
00:30:35,299 --> 00:30:37,309
从一个周期性板块转向下一个

960
00:30:37,309 --> 00:30:38,029
而我

961
00:30:38,029 --> 00:30:40,589
我实际说是从一个大宗商品转向下一个

962
00:30:40,589 --> 00:30:40,829
好的

963
00:30:40,829 --> 00:30:42,150
我们稍后详细分析

964
00:30:42,150 --> 00:30:43,910
所以上周发生了什么

965
00:30:43,910 --> 00:30:44,630
你知道的

966
00:30:44,630 --> 00:30:46,920
而这周我们对此做了相当详细的报道

967
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:47,519
就是那个

968
00:30:47,519 --> 00:30:47,720
你知道的

969
00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:50,779
我们可能最看好的盈利修正

970
00:30:50,779 --> 00:30:51,119
我觉得

971
00:30:51,119 --> 00:30:54,108
甚至超过我们今年的预期

972
00:30:54,108 --> 00:30:55,429
现在他们已经达到了

973
00:30:55,429 --> 00:30:56,528
修正幅度指标

974
00:30:56,528 --> 00:30:57,288
领先指标

975
00:30:57,288 --> 00:31:00,128
二阶导数现在处于不可持续的高位

976
00:31:00,128 --> 00:31:00,750
好的

977
00:31:00,750 --> 00:31:01,630
举个例子吧

978
00:31:01,630 --> 00:31:03,990
半导体修正幅度达70%

979
00:31:03,990 --> 00:31:06,869
过去25年仅发生过三到四次

980
00:31:06,869 --> 00:31:07,630
标普

981
00:31:07,630 --> 00:31:10,430
500指数修正幅度接近30%

982
00:31:10,430 --> 00:31:11,710
同样非常高

983
00:31:11,710 --> 00:31:13,529
即将反转

984
00:31:13,529 --> 00:31:16,450
上周半导体行业几家上市公司发布财报

985
00:31:16,450 --> 00:31:17,430
表现正常

986
00:31:17,430 --> 00:31:19,349
但修正幅度开始反转

987
00:31:19,349 --> 00:31:20,630
这就是二阶导数

988
00:31:20,630 --> 00:31:23,369
系统中存在杠杆效应

989
00:31:23,369 --> 00:31:25,589
这交易正在部分平仓

990
00:31:25,589 --> 00:31:26,950
现在将进入过渡期

991
00:31:26,950 --> 00:31:28,069
寻找新的领涨板块

992
00:31:28,069 --> 00:31:28,839
好的

993
00:31:28,839 --> 00:31:31,720
可能我的大脑有点数学过载

994
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:34,259
消费 discretionary

995
00:31:34,259 --> 00:31:35,650
不过嗯

996
00:31:35,650 --> 00:31:37,410
我在查看盈利修正数据

997
00:31:37,410 --> 00:31:39,569
自从上次你提到以来

998
00:31:39,569 --> 00:31:41,730
你指出它们几乎是凸性的

999
00:31:41,730 --> 00:31:43,329
我的意思是继续攀登

1000
00:31:43,329 --> 00:31:44,299
我们有相关图表

1001
00:31:44,299 --> 00:31:46,019
我们可能马上就能调出来

1002
00:31:47,099 --> 00:31:49,539
看起来是消费 discretionary 股

1003
00:31:49,539 --> 00:31:52,380
我认为这是近期最明显的买入机会

1004
00:31:52,380 --> 00:31:55,339
这是我很久以来见过的

1005
00:31:55,339 --> 00:31:56,279
普罗先生

1006
00:31:56,279 --> 00:31:57,220
我说的不是很久

1007
00:31:57,220 --> 00:31:58,339
可能是最明显的买入选择

1008
00:31:58,339 --> 00:31:58,880
自从

1009
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:03,039
一些尚未去年上涨的半导体股

1010
00:32:03,039 --> 00:32:03,599
没错

1011
00:32:03,599 --> 00:32:04,640
但除此之外像

1012
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:05,779
这太明显了

1013
00:32:05,779 --> 00:32:07,400
你在看密歇根州

1014
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:08,200
消费者信心指数

1015
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:10,799
这是历史上最糟糕的水平

1016
00:32:10,799 --> 00:32:12,619
它一直在持续下跌

1017
00:32:12,619 --> 00:32:14,079
汽油价格带来的大量负面情绪

1018
00:32:14,079 --> 00:32:17,569
以及所有这类情况，你可以继续押注

1019
00:32:17,569 --> 00:32:19,150
这只会变得更糟

1020
00:32:19,150 --> 00:32:21,380
但总有一天你会判断错误

1021
00:32:21,380 --> 00:32:23,140
就像轮盘赌一样

1022
00:32:23,140 --> 00:32:23,599
你知道的

1023
00:32:23,599 --> 00:32:24,720
红号连续十次出现

1024
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:26,559
它可能会连续出现十一次

1025
00:32:26,559 --> 00:32:27,710
我就是这么觉得

1026
00:32:27,710 --> 00:32:28,529
而事实是

1027
00:32:28,529 --> 00:32:28,869
好吧

1028
00:32:28,869 --> 00:32:29,269
我或许

1029
00:32:29,269 --> 00:32:30,069
但兄弟

1030
00:32:30,069 --> 00:32:33,029
我们该转向另一方向并迎来上涨

1031
00:32:33,029 --> 00:32:36,369
没错，这就是我们现在关注的

1032
00:32:36,369 --> 00:32:38,029
所以消费 discretionary 领域

1033
00:32:38,029 --> 00:32:40,680
我认为这是一个相当明显的押注

1034
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:42,460
未来两到四个月

1035
00:32:42,460 --> 00:32:44,160
我们即将接近平台期

1036
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:46,759
至少针对2026年财报修正

1037
00:32:46,759 --> 00:32:48,039
这似乎合乎逻辑

1038
00:32:48,039 --> 00:32:48,579
你的看法如何

1039
00:32:48,579 --> 00:32:50,170
你对这个怎么看

1040
00:32:50,170 --> 00:32:50,630
你知道的

1041
00:32:50,630 --> 00:32:54,690
我们还能在财报修正中持续上涨多久

1042
00:32:54,690 --> 00:32:55,049
修正幅度

1043
00:32:55,049 --> 00:32:58,500
你所说的修正范围是什么意思

1044
00:32:58,500 --> 00:32:58,740
是的

1045
00:32:58,740 --> 00:33:00,019
修正范围指的就是这个

1046
00:33:00,019 --> 00:33:00,980
修正的广泛程度

1047
00:33:00,980 --> 00:33:02,099
而非绝对数值

1048
00:33:02,099 --> 00:33:03,500
它领先于二阶导数

1049
00:33:03,500 --> 00:33:05,910
实际增长的变化率

1050
00:33:05,910 --> 00:33:08,289
所以我并不预期一阶导数

1051
00:33:08,289 --> 00:33:08,849
我意思是

1052
00:33:08,849 --> 00:33:11,599
前向盈利增长不会下降或回落

1053
00:33:11,599 --> 00:33:14,000
我们在这里用白色显示2026年

1054
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:16,259
在蓝色显示2026年

1055
00:33:16,259 --> 00:33:17,740
这条白色线将继续上升

1056
00:33:17,740 --> 00:33:18,940
但修正幅度正在反转

1057
00:33:18,940 --> 00:33:20,420
因此出现减速迹象

1058
00:33:20,420 --> 00:33:21,980
二阶导数

1059
00:33:21,980 --> 00:33:22,380
好的

1060
00:33:22,380 --> 00:33:24,019
这就是市场正在逐步反映的

1061
00:33:24,019 --> 00:33:24,980
这是修正

1062
00:33:24,980 --> 00:33:27,029
这不是趋势改变

1063
00:33:27,029 --> 00:33:28,950
当我们进入明年

1064
00:33:28,950 --> 00:33:31,630
NTM前向盈利将继续上升

1065
00:33:31,630 --> 00:33:32,690
这就是我们的观点

1066
00:33:32,690 --> 00:33:35,759
这就是股价持续上涨的原因，无需市盈率上升

1067
00:33:35,759 --> 00:33:36,579
这只是前向预测

1068
00:33:36,579 --> 00:33:40,509
展望未来一年至2027年

1069
00:33:40,509 --> 00:33:42,309
短期变化率至关重要

1070
00:33:42,309 --> 00:33:42,670
确实如此

1071
00:33:42,670 --> 00:33:44,170
这就是当前的情况

1072
00:33:44,170 --> 00:33:45,450
对我来说

1073
00:33:45,450 --> 00:33:47,500
这将导致领涨板块变化

1074
00:33:47,500 --> 00:33:48,859
就像年初时那样

1075
00:33:48,859 --> 00:33:51,019
从黄金白银股

1076
00:33:51,019 --> 00:33:52,000
到金属板块

1077
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:53,059
再到能源板块

1078
00:33:53,059 --> 00:33:55,240
随后转向DRAM和半导体

1079
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:55,660
顺便说一句

1080
00:33:55,660 --> 00:33:56,740
这四个都是大宗商品

1081
00:33:56,740 --> 00:33:57,140
我明白了

1082
00:33:57,140 --> 00:33:57,400
是的

1083
00:33:57,400 --> 00:33:59,740
因为你之前提到从一种商品转向另一种

1084
00:33:59,740 --> 00:34:00,680
没错

1085
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:04,059
但半导体DRAM高带宽

1086
00:34:04,059 --> 00:34:07,440
DRAM是当前热门商品

1087
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:09,420
我们是否会从中转向其他领域

1088
00:34:09,420 --> 00:34:09,619
嗯

1089
00:34:09,619 --> 00:34:10,019
现在发生了什么

1090
00:34:10,019 --> 00:34:10,380
我是说

1091
00:34:10,380 --> 00:34:10,900
比如

1092
00:34:10,900 --> 00:34:13,969
周五的抛售表明这已耗尽动能

1093
00:34:13,969 --> 00:34:15,809
本周我们做了张图表

1094
00:34:15,809 --> 00:34:16,409
非常有趣

1095
00:34:16,409 --> 00:34:19,489
我们对比了白银股与半导体股

1096
00:34:19,489 --> 00:34:21,190
两者走势几乎重合

1097
00:34:21,190 --> 00:34:22,949
我们在1月底做了这个判断

1098
00:34:22,949 --> 00:34:23,469
我们当时表示

1099
00:34:23,469 --> 00:34:25,010
金价可能会下跌百分之三十

1100
00:34:25,010 --> 00:34:25,309
你知道的

1101
00:34:25,309 --> 00:34:26,380
这很正常

1102
00:34:26,380 --> 00:34:27,119
这就是我该做的事

1103
00:34:27,119 --> 00:34:28,380
哦 迈克·威尔逊

1104
00:34:28,380 --> 00:34:28,760
你知道的

1105
00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:29,639
这让我失望

1106
00:34:29,639 --> 00:34:31,199
当华尔街处于

1107
00:34:31,199 --> 00:34:31,760
你知道的

1108
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:33,119
华尔街长期处于

1109
00:34:33,119 --> 00:34:34,539
完全错过了整个计划

1110
00:34:34,539 --> 00:34:35,239
兄弟

1111
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:38,139
你在比较半导体股票和金银股票

1112
00:34:38,139 --> 00:34:39,019
你在做什么

1113
00:34:39,019 --> 00:34:39,820
迈克·威尔逊

1114
00:34:39,820 --> 00:34:40,539
一切出于尊重

1115
00:34:40,539 --> 00:34:41,869
兄弟 不行

1116
00:34:41,869 --> 00:34:42,969
你不能这样

1117
00:34:42,969 --> 00:34:43,710
你不能这样

1118
00:34:43,710 --> 00:34:46,929
半导体股票有完全不同的故事与金银不同

1119
00:34:46,929 --> 00:34:48,329
金银是一种押注

1120
00:34:48,329 --> 00:34:49,130
你知道的

1121
00:34:49,130 --> 00:34:51,170
当你谈论耗尽或未耗尽时

1122
00:34:51,170 --> 00:34:52,050
这是对

1123
00:34:52,050 --> 00:34:52,449
你知道的

1124
00:34:52,449 --> 00:34:53,349
对投机的

1125
00:34:53,349 --> 00:34:54,409
你知道的

1126
00:34:54,409 --> 00:34:59,028
当我们讨论这些公司如安森美半导体股价上涨时

1127
00:34:59,028 --> 00:35:00,009
没错 希捷科技

1128
00:35:00,009 --> 00:35:00,289
你知道的

1129
00:35:00,289 --> 00:35:03,139
无论你想加入的其他公司如SK海力士

1130
00:35:03,139 --> 00:35:08,139
这是对基本面周期的押注

1131
00:35:08,539 --> 00:35:10,559
在产能方面进行

1132
00:35:10,559 --> 00:35:12,340
以及这需要多久才能恢复

1133
00:35:12,340 --> 00:35:14,420
以及所有这些事情 这是完全不同的游戏

1134
00:35:14,420 --> 00:35:14,780
行啊

1135
00:35:14,780 --> 00:35:14,960
迈克

1136
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:17,679
威尔逊先生 华尔街

1137
00:35:17,679 --> 00:35:18,619
接下来这位

1138
00:35:18,619 --> 00:35:20,420
瑞克 分配团队负责人

1139
00:35:20,420 --> 00:35:23,710
你对市场各点都有敏锐洞察

1140
00:35:23,710 --> 00:35:25,579
欢迎 再次见到你很高兴

1141
00:35:25,579 --> 00:35:30,300
我们在上周的CEO峰会

1142
00:35:30,300 --> 00:35:32,639
在华盛顿特区或篝火

1143
00:35:32,639 --> 00:35:34,539
即使在

1144
00:35:34,539 --> 00:35:35,019
你知道的

1145
00:35:35,019 --> 00:35:37,820
科技股抛售和轮动期间

1146
00:35:37,820 --> 00:35:41,289
你对整体形势仍很乐观

1147
00:35:41,289 --> 00:35:43,608
自从上次见面有什么变化吗

1148
00:35:43,608 --> 00:35:43,849
我是说

1149
00:35:43,849 --> 00:35:45,148
我只想说一件事

1150
00:35:45,148 --> 00:35:45,568
你知道的

1151
00:35:45,568 --> 00:35:47,829
我觉得每天我都跟不上节奏

1152
00:35:47,829 --> 00:35:48,168
我的意思是

1153
00:35:48,168 --> 00:35:48,809
这里的意思是

1154
00:35:48,809 --> 00:35:50,949
这就是为什么这里如此令人兴奋的环境

1155
00:35:50,949 --> 00:35:51,610
你想想看

1156
00:35:51,610 --> 00:35:51,949
我的意思是

1157
00:35:51,949 --> 00:35:53,929
新闻流是动态的

1158
00:35:53,929 --> 00:35:54,750
不夸张地说

1159
00:35:55,789 --> 00:35:57,510
但这就是技术如何改变

1160
00:35:57,510 --> 00:35:58,590
世界是如何变化的

1161
00:35:58,590 --> 00:36:00,648
这简直太令人惊叹了

1162
00:36:00,648 --> 00:36:01,289
我我

1163
00:36:01,289 --> 00:36:02,068
我充满乐观

1164
00:36:02,068 --> 00:36:04,349
你知道我称之为我所描述的方式

1165
00:36:04,349 --> 00:36:06,668
或者我想描述我们今天的投资方式

1166
00:36:06,668 --> 00:36:08,739
这就是动态耐心的概念

1167
00:36:08,739 --> 00:36:10,800
意味着你要适应新闻流

1168
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:12,219
必须努力管理风险

1169
00:36:12,219 --> 00:36:13,179
你有风险

1170
00:36:13,179 --> 00:36:14,219
读者需要阅读

1171
00:36:14,219 --> 00:36:15,010
呃

1172
00:36:15,010 --> 00:36:18,250
你知道当你觉得难以跟上市场

1173
00:36:18,250 --> 00:36:20,610
难以跟上所有发生的事情

1174
00:36:20,610 --> 00:36:22,510
所有变化你必须

1175
00:36:22,510 --> 00:36:24,590
你知道该退休了

1176
00:36:24,590 --> 00:36:25,469
你知道没有冒犯的意思

1177
00:36:25,469 --> 00:36:26,630
但到了该

1178
00:36:26,630 --> 00:36:27,710
你必须退出

1179
00:36:27,710 --> 00:36:29,510
如果你跟不上

1180
00:36:29,510 --> 00:36:30,509
像兄弟

1181
00:36:30,509 --> 00:36:32,429
你是黑岩首席投资官

1182
00:36:32,429 --> 00:36:33,900
现在必须继续

1183
00:36:33,900 --> 00:36:34,940
即使值得听他

1184
00:36:34,940 --> 00:36:36,860
他甚至跟不上市场动向

1185
00:36:36,860 --> 00:36:37,239
对吧

1186
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:37,619
对吧伙计们

1187
00:36:37,619 --> 00:36:38,679
感谢你们一如既往的加入

1188
00:36:38,679 --> 00:36:39,440
非常感谢你们的陪伴

1189
00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:41,648
明天应该会很有趣

1190
00:36:41,648 --> 00:36:42,168
呃

1191
00:36:42,168 --> 00:36:45,389
或许我会在主频道录个短视频

1192
00:36:45,389 --> 00:36:47,639
或者这个频道我们看看

1193
00:36:47,639 --> 00:36:49,960
明天告诉你对这件事的看法

1194
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:51,119
这会很有趣

1195
00:36:51,119 --> 00:36:53,699
但然后再次感谢你们的厚爱

1196
00:36:53,699 --> 00:36:54,860
如果你想加入私密群组

1197
00:36:54,860 --> 00:36:55,940
请点击下方评论区

1198
00:36:55,940 --> 00:36:57,699
我们即将关闭新成员申请

1199
00:36:57,699 --> 00:36:59,079
所以请记住这一点

1200
00:36:59,079 --> 00:37:00,840
这是访问所有课程大纲的权限

1201
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:01,920
访问私有Discord频道

1202
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:03,280
千倍股票的聊天权限

1203
00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:03,840
点com

1204
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:05,280
将你的投资水平提升到更高层次

1205
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:07,280
加入六位数至七位数投资者

1206
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:08,920
并在私密群组中与我互动

1207
00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:09,219
好的

1208
00:37:09,219 --> 00:37:09,599
好的

1209
00:37:09,599 --> 00:37:09,920
送上满满的爱

1210
00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:10,820
祝你度过美好一天

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