往最坏处想往最好处做

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昨天给我儿子发了个视频

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关于小时候成长经历的故事啊

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还有很多人不相信啊

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不相信最好是不要相信

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因为你经历了那些东西之后呢

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有很痛苦啊

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我这几年变得柔软了

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就是因为22年之后呢不怎么干活了

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每天呢到处思考

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躺平投资啊

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这几年很开心啊

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然后那些事儿呢我也想努力的忘掉啊

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你看我今天我又来到一个一个海滩啊

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非常漂亮

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范廷队啊

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范廷队很差啊

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你看下老美的小孩啊

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他们正在比赛游泳

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好看他们的童年啊

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我其实很想做这个童年

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我并不想并不想着像我刚才说的那那种状态

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就是因为啊然后站那就念一个国乒

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你看我是什么时候开始放松的

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就是22年之后

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我在创业期间

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整个人高度紧张

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然后呢脾气很大

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1.6缸很生硬啊

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为什么啊

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我女儿平时她跟我话不多呢

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因为小时候现在很严肃嘛

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但我们老三老二给我交流的比较轻松的

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就因为后面的就不怎么干活了

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实际上中国古代有一句话叫何不食肉糜啊

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就是你吃不上饭

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为什么不吃肉呢

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很多人历史读的少啊

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或者说你没有读过真正的历史啊

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所以无知是很正常的

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但是呢我讲了很多东西呢

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你可以听一听啊

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因为我这些年做生意啊

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就这两年这两年应该六七十%吧

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接下来还会更多

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然后遥遥领先大王思维啊

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还有这个小米牛逼的啊

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其实很惨的

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就是如果这件事在20年前啊

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你懂一点

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实际上不是坏事

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那个时候机会多啊

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在10年前啊

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除了还能东山再起

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但是你今天反拼油干打赌

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基本上基本上起来的概率很低了

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他为什么20年前无所谓呢

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那时候我们刚毕业嘛

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我是06年大学毕业

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那没上完大学

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那个时候认为是真的加入世贸组织之后呢

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所有的行业都在井喷

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那时候你不管做什么啊

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无论是炒房啊

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做外贸啊啊

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还是这个做电商啊啊做工厂啊

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那是供不应求的

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也就相当于说你的需求啊

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然后很大供应很少

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你开个小厂

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然后卖这种低脂的东西都能放开

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然后在10年前呢

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那时候还有点机会啊

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就是大概201516年的时候

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但是我觉得说这种品牌呢还有一点点流量啊

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那时候还没那么去啊

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然后呢啊只要是运气不是很差

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然后守在一个渠道

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哪怕是天猫京东好

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唯品会啊

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也能赚点小钱啊

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财务自由不一定啊

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但是几百万还没问题

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你大概率出不来了呢

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因为今天所有的行业都是过剩的

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很多人理解不了过剩带来的压力啊

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你可以看一下日本过去的30年

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那30年里面

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实际上那一代人啊

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整整一代人

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基本上都是就是完全就看不到希望的

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完全看不到希望

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他是萎靡

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你看今天日本的很多电影啊

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就是描述当时那个时代的啊

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你可以看一看

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我因为我还是比较喜欢看小说的啊

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你看当时我们那个时候啊

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读村上春树的挪威的森林啊

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还读了这个呃无忧杂货店啊

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包括这个啊这个斯乐园啊

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很多就那个时候学这个年轻人啊没有激情啊

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很颓废

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然后呢这个伦理的道德啊

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各方面呢都打破了

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这就是那个时代

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然后在日本三世纪30年里面

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比如说他那时候GDP的话已经是几万几万美金了

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平均的话应该是两三万美金

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怎么到今天才1万美金

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所以你看我在九头写文章

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从这个2018年开始

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那时候我就经常给那个做电商的兄弟提醒啊

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我说哎如果有可能的话

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说起来规模啊

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不要再去刷单了

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因为你刷单呢面临着补费啊

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你规模大呢面临的赔偿

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然后呢你这个生意呢啊

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因为供大于求啊

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包括平台的压榨呢

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你面临的事啊

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利润严重的萎缩

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那个时候我讲了很多东西呢

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就是我个人呃创业啊

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说白了就是因为吃过苦嘛

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然后受过挨过饿啊

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然后呢从冯老大是那种成长经历上比较取得嘛

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所以我是比较有风险意识的

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因为我特别的喜欢看巴菲特和段永平啊

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这些啊投资大师的文章

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特别在风险管控上

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我是比一般人这嗓子养的猪

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你看我在2018年之前啊

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我买的那些房子只是用来办公

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包括买的住宅啊

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都是用来办公的

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我从来没有说我为了改善生活啊

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提高这个个人的品质去买房自住

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从来没有我真的享受生活

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就2018年之后啊

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然后啊风力规模慢慢的哎

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从十个亿八个亿呢往下掉的时候就闲钱了

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哎我才买了一些改善的啊

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然后买了精美山庄之类的

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那那那那那个也是失败的投资啊

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17年买到现在也是也是亏的啊

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但是呢最起码那个时候没买贵啊

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2万块钱啊

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现在还是2万左右吧

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我给他讲的意思是什么

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从2018年之后呢

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基本上所有的买固定资产的人现在都腰斩了

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那2018年之后呢

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所有做生意的基本上基本上都会都吐回去了

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而且呢就是208年之后呢

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如果说你不做海外的啊

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然后不做国内的

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那现在的话也是面临着补完税之后呢

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你可能就是归零了

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实际上这都是现实问题啊

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然后为什么有的人他不爱听呢

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就是跟大家的立场不一样

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每个人的角度不一样

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比如说你是个创业者

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你会很痛苦啊

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但是你说你回公务员呢没有什么感觉啊

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你反而是因为这个物价下跌啊

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竞争激烈呢反而会受益

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因为你花了钱买东西更多了啊

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如果你是个投资人啊

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然后呢你是做价值投资的人

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这几年如果你不做美股

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肯定会很痛苦的

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价值投资你也知道啊

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基本上啊除了这个AI硬件啊

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其他的都是标准

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哪怕有色金属今年也跌了三四十%

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任何行业还用一些

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也更不用说这个传统的这些互联网啊

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啊传统的白马股啊都都不太好

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所以呢那些自己呢没有感觉到痛苦的人呢

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是因为啊他可能巧啊

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他没有在这个线上

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但是呢如果你是1%的概率啊

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而且你不是靠个人努力啊

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没有真才实学

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你是一定会扣回去的

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真的啊就是有静态思学的人这几年都不好

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但没有静态思学的肯定不哼

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接下来会非常非常不好

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这个呢是这不是概率

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这是逻辑问题

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我呢是比较客观啊

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因为我发视频也好

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讲我个人的感悟也好

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我更多的做给自己看

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因为我觉得我们这些人呢能够出来很不容易啊

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就是完全是运气比较好啊

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99%的运气加1%的努力吧

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但是呢在99%的运气面前呢

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我们不想着说啊

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在这个把自己的狂妄啊

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然后呢这个啊迷失自我正在失去

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因为我是一个经常讲

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我是一个乐观的悲观主义者啊

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因为我这些年呢一直在给自己打基础嘛

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然后无论是啊

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无论是从这个一次式的转型啊

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然后提高自己的商业模式呀

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然后呢增强自己的业务技能啊

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然后往最坏的地方想啊

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就大家肯定不知道啊

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就我是怎么样想最坏的结果

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我每次都假设完全失去了该怎么办

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我做任何生意

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比如说钱亏了该怎么办啊

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我做每次选择说假设最坏的极端事件出现

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哪怕说啊像60年六七年前啊

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那种极端事情出现

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我该怎么办

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我都这么思考问题的

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我永远会留下粮食

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因为我挨饿饿

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我很清楚挨饿的滋味是很难受的

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喊天天不应叫地地不灵

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因为我爬山爬悬崖

227
00:07:22,420 --> 00:07:23,379
我也知道啊

228
00:07:23,379 --> 00:07:24,300
好友不慎啊

229
00:07:24,300 --> 00:07:24,899
粉身碎骨

230
00:07:24,899 --> 00:07:27,480
就是因为我是那种习惯性的思考

231
00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:29,100
所以呢我才能躲过灾难

232
00:07:29,100 --> 00:07:30,800
因为灾难你不知道什么时候会来临啊

233
00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:32,790
可能是啊半年可能是5年

234
00:07:32,790 --> 00:07:33,509
可能是10年啊

235
00:07:33,509 --> 00:07:35,189
就像那个911的时候啊

236
00:07:35,189 --> 00:07:37,189
那个啊双子塔一样对吧

237
00:07:37,189 --> 00:07:38,350
然后唯一的逃生的呢

238
00:07:38,350 --> 00:07:41,060
就是有一个受过特殊训练的

239
00:07:41,060 --> 00:07:43,180
就是一个参加过海军陆战队啊

240
00:07:43,180 --> 00:07:45,019
他是20年如一日的啊

241
00:07:45,019 --> 00:07:47,579
每天让高盛的员工呢上楼下楼啊

242
00:07:47,579 --> 00:07:48,788
从40楼上下来

243
00:07:48,788 --> 00:07:51,009
但高盛的员工骂了他20年

244
00:07:51,009 --> 00:07:55,108
但是当这个当那个塔被这个啊被这个撞到

245
00:07:55,108 --> 00:07:56,339
被飞机撞的时候

246
00:07:56,339 --> 00:07:58,579
他是唯一的一个开源撤退的

247
00:07:58,579 --> 00:07:59,339
但是很不幸呢

248
00:07:59,339 --> 00:08:00,220
这个人后来也死了

249
00:08:00,220 --> 00:08:01,939
因为他又回去救其他人

250
00:08:01,939 --> 00:08:02,899
他自己牺牲了

251
00:08:02,899 --> 00:08:07,819
但是呢这件事20年20年哎来了一次风险

252
00:08:07,819 --> 00:08:10,180
然后所有人都都逃脱了

253
00:08:10,180 --> 00:08:12,079
你从这个事上你应该能够理解啊

254
00:08:12,079 --> 00:08:16,298
就是呃一个人的命运呢是是真的硬伤

255
00:08:16,298 --> 00:08:17,738
是很脆弱的对吧

256
00:08:17,738 --> 00:08:19,158
我们的财富很脆弱的

257
00:08:19,158 --> 00:08:22,079
所以这也是为什么我每一次都能够啊

258
00:08:22,079 --> 00:08:22,959
这个顺利转型啊

259
00:08:22,959 --> 00:08:23,918
我经常讲一个逻辑

260
00:08:23,918 --> 00:08:25,550
就是每次走过一座桥

261
00:08:25,550 --> 00:08:25,850
哎

262
00:08:25,850 --> 00:08:26,649
一一扭头

263
00:08:26,649 --> 00:08:28,050
那哎桥断了哎

264
00:08:28,050 --> 00:08:30,310
我正好安然安然无恙的走过去

265
00:08:30,310 --> 00:08:32,549
这个就是在每一次回头望的时候

266
00:08:32,549 --> 00:08:33,830
我才知道我对了

267
00:08:33,830 --> 00:08:35,389
可能这件事已经发生了3年五年了

268
00:08:35,389 --> 00:08:37,070
就像我在2018年啊

269
00:08:37,070 --> 00:08:40,080
那个啊在在美国送我老三啊啊

270
00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:41,259
然后带我老婆送老三

271
00:08:41,259 --> 00:08:43,039
然后呢我回去之后开始移民亚

272
00:08:43,039 --> 00:08:46,120
然后到了啊22年的时候和我老爸业余学吧

273
00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:47,960
那这个时候呢哎我老婆发现哎呀

274
00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:49,480
你这个4年前做的觉得很对

275
00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:51,320
然后去年来到美国的时候啊

276
00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:53,799
所有人哎小孩都说哎老爸你该早点带我们来

277
00:08:53,799 --> 00:08:56,289
你看这件事过去多少年了呢

278
00:08:56,289 --> 00:08:57,809
这是已经到25年的时候

279
00:08:57,809 --> 00:08:59,009
已经过去7年了

280
00:08:59,009 --> 00:09:00,370
当新年过了之后啊

281
00:09:00,370 --> 00:09:02,529
所有人都认为说他跟你作对的时候

282
00:09:02,529 --> 00:09:06,370
但是对你是这7年你的经历谁会认可呢是吧

283
00:09:06,370 --> 00:09:07,610
就像我在2014年

284
00:09:07,610 --> 00:09:09,309
我们代理品牌生意最好的时候

285
00:09:09,309 --> 00:09:10,879
我做自主品牌啊

286
00:09:10,879 --> 00:09:12,000
结果呢过了56年啊

287
00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:15,179
我们同同样做VIVOOPPO小天代代理的兄弟一见面啊

288
00:09:15,179 --> 00:09:17,000
然后呢包括VIVO的总监啊

289
00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:18,129
离职的时候啊

290
00:09:18,129 --> 00:09:20,769
然后呢到了202021年啊

291
00:09:20,769 --> 00:09:22,629
我们停止做VIO对谈的时候

292
00:09:22,629 --> 00:09:25,350
然后那些同行说哎呀权哥你真英明啊

293
00:09:25,350 --> 00:09:26,850
你你提前做了自主品牌

294
00:09:26,850 --> 00:09:27,950
我们呢还在苦苦煎熬

295
00:09:27,950 --> 00:09:29,029
还在贷款做生意

296
00:09:29,029 --> 00:09:31,129
各位这件事已经过去了6年了

297
00:09:31,129 --> 00:09:32,549
那6年的6年的时候

298
00:09:32,549 --> 00:09:34,690
谁会谁会认可你的决策呢

299
00:09:34,690 --> 00:09:36,110
谁会认为你是对的呢

300
00:09:36,110 --> 00:09:37,950
啊谁会尊重你的意见呢

301
00:09:37,950 --> 00:09:39,289
谁会听得进去呢

302
00:09:39,289 --> 00:09:39,730
对吧

303
00:09:39,730 --> 00:09:43,610
所以说各位如果呢你是一个看的很长远的人啊

304
00:09:43,610 --> 00:09:45,250
然后呢你很多决策啊

305
00:09:45,250 --> 00:09:47,139
5年五六年之后呢得到了验证

306
00:09:47,139 --> 00:09:48,620
那这个时候呢你在56年里面

307
00:09:48,620 --> 00:09:49,500
你应该做的是什么呢

308
00:09:49,500 --> 00:09:50,799
就是远离任何人

309
00:09:50,799 --> 00:09:51,700
远离他们

310
00:09:51,700 --> 00:09:53,539
就像我从22年之后我不再见人

311
00:09:53,539 --> 00:09:55,918
然后每天啊自己给自己交流

312
00:09:55,918 --> 00:09:56,558
我拍视频

313
00:09:56,558 --> 00:09:57,818
我是为了记录我的心得

314
00:09:57,818 --> 00:09:58,979
我不是为了任何人

315
00:09:58,979 --> 00:10:00,078
我也不想说服任何人

316
00:10:00,078 --> 00:10:01,318
我也不想着去提醒任何人

317
00:10:01,318 --> 00:10:04,259
我只是想说哎如果说你和我有同样经历啊

318
00:10:04,259 --> 00:10:05,740
或者说你认可我的价值观啊

319
00:10:05,740 --> 00:10:07,820
你可以作为一个啊听一听啊

320
00:10:07,820 --> 00:10:08,980
作为一个参考啊

321
00:10:08,980 --> 00:10:10,519
但是你也不一定说非要这么干

322
00:10:10,519 --> 00:10:11,649
因为没有必要啊

323
00:10:11,649 --> 00:10:13,599
因为我的人生呢其实这是我个人

324
00:10:13,599 --> 00:10:15,558
我比较喜欢这样的哈哈

325
00:10:15,558 --> 00:10:16,479
因为我现在很自由

326
00:10:16,479 --> 00:10:17,719
很开心对吧

327
00:10:17,719 --> 00:10:18,759
我也是啊

328
00:10:18,759 --> 00:10:20,629
我也是现在也没有人能够威胁到我

329
00:10:20,629 --> 00:10:22,669
因为我在这边其实还是蛮开心的

330
00:10:22,669 --> 00:10:23,529
很健康啊

331
00:10:23,529 --> 00:10:26,190
我的身体健康程度已经恢复到十几年前了

332
00:10:26,190 --> 00:10:27,769
我比2015年还要健康

333
00:10:27,769 --> 00:10:30,409
所以呢这是我个人的一些心得体会

334
00:10:30,409 --> 00:10:31,210
我愿意分享

335
00:10:31,210 --> 00:10:34,980
是因为总是有一些迷茫的人呢啊需要我的帮助

336
00:10:34,980 --> 00:10:37,519
所以呢这个时候大家讲就是如果你有远见

337
00:10:37,519 --> 00:10:38,879
你能看到很多女人

338
00:10:38,879 --> 00:10:40,649
你没有必要给任何人解释

339
00:10:40,649 --> 00:10:41,769
你有解释的功夫呢

340
00:10:41,769 --> 00:10:42,809
你就找到山里面

341
00:10:42,809 --> 00:10:44,049
走到海边啊

342
00:10:44,049 --> 00:10:45,049
在湖边啊

343
00:10:45,049 --> 00:10:46,450
在小树林里面啊

344
00:10:46,450 --> 00:10:47,509
拿起一本书啊

345
00:10:47,509 --> 00:10:49,919
然后给他啊一杯酒

346
00:10:49,919 --> 00:10:50,639
然后一边喝酒

347
00:10:50,639 --> 00:10:51,240
一边思考

348
00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:52,639
一边快乐乐享人生啊

349
00:10:52,639 --> 00:10:53,320
就像我一样

350
00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:55,909
你看我去的每个地方都很少有华人

351
00:10:55,909 --> 00:10:56,470
不为啥

352
00:10:56,470 --> 00:10:57,710
因为我走的你知道走多远吗

353
00:10:57,710 --> 00:11:01,710
各位今天啊你们可能看到的这个趋势啊

354
00:11:01,710 --> 00:11:02,750
我是哪里的

355
00:11:02,750 --> 00:11:05,019
我是那个就是那边有个大桥

356
00:11:05,019 --> 00:11:05,919
这边你放远了

357
00:11:05,919 --> 00:11:07,320
这正好在5km以外吧

358
00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:08,419
那里有个大桥

359
00:11:08,419 --> 00:11:09,980
对我从那个大桥那个地方走过来

360
00:11:09,980 --> 00:11:11,700
看到没有那个那一那一排树啊

361
00:11:11,700 --> 00:11:13,759
就是一排这个树的这个这个地方

362
00:11:13,759 --> 00:11:14,659
这里有个大桥

363
00:11:14,659 --> 00:11:15,419
我都走过来啊

364
00:11:15,419 --> 00:11:17,490
我每天走十几20km

365
00:11:17,490 --> 00:11:19,509
然后一边走一边观察啊

366
00:11:19,509 --> 00:11:20,750
一边观察这些人啊

367
00:11:20,750 --> 00:11:23,429
一边看老美他们的这个什么状态啊

368
00:11:23,429 --> 00:11:25,318
你看老美他们啊在冒险

369
00:11:25,318 --> 00:11:27,519
在深海里面滑板啊

370
00:11:27,519 --> 00:11:28,538
在深海里面游泳

371
00:11:28,538 --> 00:11:31,610
在深海里面奋奋一啊蹦一啊

372
00:11:31,610 --> 00:11:33,730
现在美国人的教育孩子的方式啊

373
00:11:33,730 --> 00:11:35,970
每个人都在啊在搏击啊

374
00:11:35,970 --> 00:11:37,230
但他不敢搏击啊

375
00:11:37,230 --> 00:11:39,360
对嘿嘿嘿嘿

376
00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:40,879
为什么他们那么勇敢啊

377
00:11:40,879 --> 00:11:43,460
为什么他们这个啊这么强壮

378
00:11:43,460 --> 00:11:45,320
为什么他们把身体来放低位

379
00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:47,759
为什么他把勇气把毅力

380
00:11:47,759 --> 00:11:49,200
把爆发力放低位

381
00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:50,629
这个水造成的

382
00:11:50,629 --> 00:11:54,169
所以我用我的个人的成长经历呢

383
00:11:54,169 --> 00:11:56,210
啊再三提醒了这一路上很多人

384
00:11:56,210 --> 00:11:57,490
包括我在酒上写文章

385
00:11:57,490 --> 00:11:58,250
提行了跳舞

386
00:11:58,250 --> 00:11:59,289
和我一样的创业者

387
00:11:59,289 --> 00:12:00,328
目的很简单

388
00:12:00,328 --> 00:12:02,450
就是不要为别人的过快感

389
00:12:02,450 --> 00:12:06,769
不要因为任何人的错误呢给你待在任何压力

390
00:12:06,769 --> 00:12:08,769
让自己变得更自由更健康

391
00:12:08,769 --> 00:12:10,570
对每个人活得更自己就可以了

392
00:12:10,570 --> 00:12:12,929
其实我不会受任何人的束缚啊

393
00:12:12,929 --> 00:12:14,580
哪怕我的孩子也是一样的

394
00:12:14,580 --> 00:12:17,220
我首先在自己健康啊

395
00:12:17,220 --> 00:12:18,100
永远最重要

396
00:12:18,100 --> 00:12:19,179
因为我们可以投资

397
00:12:19,179 --> 00:12:19,980
可到100岁

398
00:12:19,980 --> 00:12:21,379
就像麻布袋一样啊

399
00:12:21,379 --> 00:12:21,809
跳着舞

400
00:12:21,809 --> 00:12:23,330
我很开心啊

401
00:12:24,009 --> 00:12:27,350
我说真的希望我能啊给更多人带来启发

402
00:12:27,350 --> 00:12:27,769
加油啊

403
00:12:27,769 --> 00:12:28,379
兄弟们

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