【Couch Investor】SoFi Stock Below $20, Will it EVER See $30 Again？

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大家好，欢迎回到今天的视频

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所以今天的视频里

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可能会比较简短

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因为我们只讨论一家公司

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这是我们最喜欢的之一

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所以现在我

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暂时来说

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至少在我录制时

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这支视频每股仍不到二十美元

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那么它需要做什么才能回到每股三十美元

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或许最终到四十美元

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这就是问题所在

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因为大家都在说

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哦

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所以我应该回到二十五到三十美元

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四十五

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七十五对吧

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我们都知道缩略图

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我们都知道标题

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但现实来说

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公司需要做什么才能重回二十几高位

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三十几低位

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并最终更高

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而不陷入 meme 级别定价

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对吧，不用到百倍市盈率

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P/E

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两百倍市销率

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或类似指标

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因为上涨本身

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和持续上涨

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但基本面并不支持

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毫无关联

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完全说不通

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现实与股价毫无关联

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挺有趣的

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假设明天我们到四十美元就不错了

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如果明天股价到四十美元

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我可能考虑部分减仓

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如果明天发生

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如果是一年后

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两年后

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大概不会，因为我认为最终会达到

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正如你们所知

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目前股价已经经历大幅回调

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过去十二个月

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股票仍上涨16.7%

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但已下跌39%

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嗯

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其实

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它曾多次创下新高

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实际上二十二点五

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不过是啊

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我们正在经历三九的抛售

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这不是因为业务表现不佳

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不

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我们曾一度在这里徘徊

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当时是三二美元二十一美分

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是的

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我们徘徊在二十六左右

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二十七

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过去几个月约二十八美元左右

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然后是的，确实

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今年初的表现非常糟糕

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仅今年截至目前已下跌二八个百分点

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百分之五

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再次强调

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这不是业务表现的问题

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不，只是整体AI科技情绪

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同时财务状况也非常糟糕

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是的

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我们看到区域性银行等表现稍好

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但似乎被归入同一类

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纳入篮子因为

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有些人不愿听这个

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因为确实

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所以我可能有银行股

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但增长快于传统银行

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增速与许多科技公司相当

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在某些情况下甚至更快于软件公司

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当然当我们看利润率等指标

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目前还差很远

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但看到当前价格已是投资组合中的重大布局

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这些价格始终如此

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即使在二十几低位也是极佳交易

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所以在继续推测前

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如果你喜欢这类视频

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点击所有按钮

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我们非常感激

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如果继续支持我卢西

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在描述区抱抱我

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在评论区列出前十最佳推荐

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或前往完整链接/ goch投资者

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非常感谢

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让我展示原因

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它应享有一点溢价

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顺便说一句

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这是在Perplexity上

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相当酷

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他们在Perplexity Finance的举措

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我认为如果他们继续当前做法

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他们很快就会超越雅虎财经

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毕竟我们要面对现实

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我们的财经网站其实并不算好

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总之

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如果我们看这里当前的分析师共识

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根据这里的十位分析师

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平均预测是持平

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有三位分析师看涨

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五位中性，两位看跌

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平均分析师目标价为26.75美元

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但这不是重点

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重点在于这次盈利超预期

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盈利历史

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我们看到的是反复出现的情况

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当报告发布时

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他们超出预期

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他们再次超出预期

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你可以非常清楚地看到

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这还不算完

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让我们看看收入

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同样的情况

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反复出现

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我们有双倍超预期

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而且大多数时候我们甚至有三倍超预期

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当我们评估sofa时

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像这样的指标

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你看市盈率或类似指标

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记住市盈率基于分析师预期

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正如我们刚刚看到的

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分析师预期一直偏低

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现在看sofa

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sofa正在成长为更大的公司

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我们都清楚sofa表现良好

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现在这将成为非常有趣的事情

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但现在我们要讨论

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soi每个季度收入都将超过十亿美元

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这还不算完

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我们每个季度收入已达十亿美元

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低十亿级别

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但我们增长速度比前几年快

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这正是我们所处的良好位置

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正如你所记得的

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Antoni Oto在最新Tavis和Tenner播客中

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他说

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如果Q1是增长最快的业务

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他会感到失望

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当我们看到Q1指引时

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可以合理推断

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全年指引将再次被超越并上调

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在此期间

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当然这里需要常规回顾

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金融服务仍是增长极其迅猛的领域

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每个季度的数据都在不断攀升

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贷款收入仍是最大业务板块

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但以当前增速金融服务或将超越这一板块

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然后是的

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我们拥有技术平台

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我认为一旦看到技术平台持续增长

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我确实认为2026年会看到积极表现

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股票市场情绪也会随之转变

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我们看到的是这家优秀公司高效执行

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表现非常出色

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全面增长态势

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猜猜看

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我们仍远未触及天花板

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现在看股价重回25美元

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30美元仍觉得估值合理

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需要几个条件达成

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首先是易于跟踪的指标

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希望他们提供该指标

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每个季度都要公布

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因为非常直观

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每项金融服务产品的年收入达104美元

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同比增长29%

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我认为环比来看

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保持平稳

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但这一数字应持续攀升

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随着全面商业化进程

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尤其是现金业务

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包括信用卡等业务

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如果再次发生

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现在预期的营收增长

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这是全年数据

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2026年调整后净营收增长30%

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一季度调整后净营收

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35%

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记住如果这是全年最快增长季度他会失望

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因此一季度35%不应是全年最快

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但全年来看

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我们看到30%增长

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是的

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在我看来

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这闻起来像

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又一个超预期行情

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今年每股收益同样如此

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他们给出约60美分

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我们清楚中值目标

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他们早前给出的中值

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当前中值应为67美分

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没错

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他们进行了股权稀释

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但他们仍然进行了股权稀释

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而我们依然接近中点

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这是他们在稀释前给予我们的

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想象一下没有稀释的情况下我们会处于什么位置

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但这无关紧要

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因为我们正在增长

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我们越来越盈利

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我们正在成为更好的公司

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即使如此

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甚至不是因为稀释

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这是机会主义行为

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并未损害每股收益增长

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相反

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我认为这使公司变得更强大

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今天更加盈利

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在未来

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仅基于沙发公司现在提供的数据

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我们可以开始应用市盈倍数等指标

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看看要如何回到三十甚至四十美元

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正如我们所知全年金融服务业增长

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贷款增长40%

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技术平台增长3%（不含Chime）

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20%增长

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我们还知道中期内的情况

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管理层预计调整后净收入年复合增长率至少30%

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从2025至2028年

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不包含2025年增长

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非常重要的一点

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此外

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管理层预计调整后每股收益年复合增长率为3.8%至4.2%

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从2025至2028年

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该指引假设宏观经济环境无重大变化

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且无重大新业务或收购发生（可能或不可能）

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如果我们做些快速计算

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这意味着2028年收入至少达79亿美元

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每股收益在1.02至1.12美元之间

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现在再次强调

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基于最新每股收益的快速计算

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我们目前市盈率约50倍

241
00:10:01,610 --> 00:10:04,269
如果保持50倍市盈率

242
00:10:04,269 --> 00:10:08,129
基于2026财年0.6美元每股收益

243
00:10:08,129 --> 00:10:10,600
计算正确

244
00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:14,080
现在每股价值30美元

245
00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:18,929
理想情况是市盈率不应保持在50倍

246
00:10:18,929 --> 00:10:20,049
我们应降低

247
00:10:20,049 --> 00:10:22,620
但提升每股收益

248
00:10:22,620 --> 00:10:24,899
这才是理想情况

249
00:10:24,899 --> 00:10:29,750
再看中期展望

250
00:10:29,750 --> 00:10:32,330
这并非不可想象

251
00:10:32,330 --> 00:10:36,289
如果我们想要达到一美元十二美分

252
00:10:36,289 --> 00:10:37,210
也许如果他们赢了

253
00:10:37,210 --> 00:10:42,840
那么价格将从一美元十美分涨到一美元二十美分左右，适用于二十八年

254
00:10:44,039 --> 00:10:44,899
这里同样如此

255
00:10:44,899 --> 00:10:49,169
这甚至不到该年利润的三十倍

256
00:10:49,169 --> 00:10:51,850
同时观察账面价值

257
00:10:51,850 --> 00:10:56,309
仅用一年时间从四女儿四七涨至七女儿以上

258
00:10:56,309 --> 00:10:59,529
我们有可能突破十到十一美元

259
00:10:59,529 --> 00:11:03,339
而要达到每股三十美元的价格

260
00:11:03,339 --> 00:11:04,078
两点

261
00:11:04,078 --> 00:11:07,278
七到三倍之前的账面价值

262
00:11:07,278 --> 00:11:11,039
对于这种类型公司在这种增长下是否值得这么多

263
00:11:11,039 --> 00:11:12,409
一点也不

264
00:11:12,409 --> 00:11:13,950
一点也不

265
00:11:13,950 --> 00:11:17,730
而我们目前的市盈率在五十倍左右

266
00:11:17,730 --> 00:11:20,370
如果今年达到六角钱

267
00:11:20,370 --> 00:11:21,750
五十倍市盈率

268
00:11:21,750 --> 00:11:23,809
现在每股三十美元

269
00:11:23,809 --> 00:11:29,230
如果达到七角或六角五分

270
00:11:29,230 --> 00:11:32,769
如果市场仍给予五十倍的市盈率

271
00:11:32,769 --> 00:11:36,519
假设我们在科技平台看到稳健增长

272
00:11:36,639 --> 00:11:39,419
整个业务持续表现极佳

273
00:11:39,419 --> 00:11:40,820
市场情绪良好

274
00:11:40,820 --> 00:11:43,578
这又会带来相应倍数

275
00:11:43,578 --> 00:11:47,339
但我们的每股收益将超预期

276
00:11:47,339 --> 00:11:48,078
那么是的

277
00:11:48,078 --> 00:11:50,359
我们将突破每股三十美元

278
00:11:50,359 --> 00:11:51,519
可能在今年

279
00:11:51,519 --> 00:11:53,578
或许明年年初

280
00:11:53,578 --> 00:11:54,499
如果不行

281
00:11:54,499 --> 00:11:56,739
如果市场说现在

282
00:11:56,739 --> 00:11:59,818
现在变成四十倍市盈率

283
00:11:59,818 --> 00:12:00,678
好的

284
00:12:00,678 --> 00:12:04,879
四十倍市盈率仍比当前有上涨空间

285
00:12:04,879 --> 00:12:06,629
基于六角钱的预期

286
00:12:06,629 --> 00:12:11,570
如果我们仍认为六角钱远低于实际

287
00:12:11,570 --> 00:12:14,889
即使四十倍前瞻市盈率

288
00:12:14,889 --> 00:12:17,370
六角五分或任何可能数值

289
00:12:17,370 --> 00:12:20,578
将我们带到每股三十美元附近

290
00:12:20,578 --> 00:12:22,278
总结来说

291
00:12:22,278 --> 00:12:26,418
认为能回到三十美元并不疯狂

292
00:12:26,418 --> 00:12:29,700
这意味着当前股价有五成上涨空间

293
00:12:29,700 --> 00:12:30,809
我们现在所处的价位

294
00:12:30,809 --> 00:12:33,169
这就是我已持有大量股份的原因

295
00:12:33,169 --> 00:12:37,240
但如果你告诉我还能买入更多优质公司股票

296
00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:42,960
仍可能预期未来十二个月五成涨幅

297
00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:46,089
仅仅因为我们回到之前水平

298
00:12:46,089 --> 00:12:48,769
市盈率可能实际下降

299
00:12:48,769 --> 00:12:51,509
因为公司持续超额完成目标

300
00:12:51,549 --> 00:12:55,029
我不该继续买入这类股票

301
00:12:55,029 --> 00:12:55,549
这就是关键所在

302
00:12:55,549 --> 00:12:57,669
我不明白为什么人们会这么慌张

303
00:12:57,669 --> 00:13:03,429
你有机会以更优价格买入一家优质公司

304
00:13:03,429 --> 00:13:05,409
从峰值下跌40%

305
00:13:05,409 --> 00:13:10,809
当然很少有沙发投资者在30美元以上买入

306
00:13:10,809 --> 00:13:14,679
我们大多数人在10到20美元之间买入

307
00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:17,889
没错 所以我们仍然盈利

308
00:13:17,889 --> 00:13:19,309
但如果你现在买入

309
00:13:19,309 --> 00:13:21,950
我们刚收到2026年的指引

310
00:13:21,950 --> 00:13:24,299
管理层发表了积极评论

311
00:13:24,299 --> 00:13:26,019
但股价仍在下跌

312
00:13:26,019 --> 00:13:27,100
股价仍低于20美元

313
00:13:28,100 --> 00:13:28,909
我说

314
00:13:28,909 --> 00:13:30,509
我怎么会不继续买入

315
00:13:30,509 --> 00:13:35,110
这又是那些AI可能颠覆的行业

316
00:13:35,110 --> 00:13:35,590
Sofi

317
00:13:36,629 --> 00:13:37,429
不

318
00:13:37,710 --> 00:13:38,710
完全不会

319
00:13:38,710 --> 00:13:39,250
现在

320
00:13:39,250 --> 00:13:42,629
宏观经济灾难

321
00:13:42,629 --> 00:13:44,710
会对业务造成巨大压力

322
00:13:44,710 --> 00:13:45,350
是的

323
00:13:45,350 --> 00:13:45,789
是的

324
00:13:45,789 --> 00:13:46,490
很可能

325
00:13:51,279 --> 00:13:54,200
会对市场施加压力

326
00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:56,799
以及所有其他公司

327
00:13:56,799 --> 00:13:58,328
就我自己而言

328
00:13:58,328 --> 00:14:03,028
他们的微观经济前景并不乐观

329
00:14:03,028 --> 00:14:03,288
没错

330
00:14:03,288 --> 00:14:04,500
确实不乐观

331
00:14:04,500 --> 00:14:06,860
当我们关注降息

332
00:14:06,860 --> 00:14:08,200
失业率等数据时

333
00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:12,720
我认为这里有一个不错的缓冲空间

334
00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:14,000
当然再次

335
00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:15,580
宏观经济灾难

336
00:14:15,580 --> 00:14:16,419
这类事件

337
00:14:16,419 --> 00:14:17,159
我们无法预知

338
00:14:17,159 --> 00:14:18,220
无法预测

339
00:14:18,220 --> 00:14:22,009
但我们现在可以关注业务本身

340
00:14:22,009 --> 00:14:24,590
管理层的评论是执行力

341
00:14:24,590 --> 00:14:26,429
所有这些都表明

342
00:14:26,429 --> 00:14:27,610
Sofi是一家优秀公司

343
00:14:27,610 --> 00:14:29,860
以合理价格交易

344
00:14:29,860 --> 00:14:32,059
总体而言这就是我的看法

345
00:14:32,059 --> 00:14:33,799
在这视频里你是否在加仓

346
00:14:33,799 --> 00:14:34,740
Sofi股票

347
00:14:34,740 --> 00:14:35,419
如果你亏损

348
00:14:35,419 --> 00:14:36,360
仍看好这只股票

349
00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:38,500
请在下方评论区告诉我

350
00:14:38,500 --> 00:14:40,019
来自三零的问候

351
00:14:40,019 --> 00:14:41,419
五，再见

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