BV1s27w6hEqf · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:05,040 大家好 2 00:00:05,040 --> 00:00:07,700 今天是6月21日星期日 3 00:00:07,700 --> 00:00:09,949 我们继续分析美股 4 00:00:09,949 --> 00:00:13,050 本期内容包括对基本面的跟进 5 00:00:13,050 --> 00:00:15,669 随后分析热门股票 6 00:00:16,949 --> 00:00:19,350 单周狂吸8100亿 7 00:00:19,350 --> 00:00:23,149 每股创历史资金记录 8 00:00:23,949 --> 00:00:26,809 资金涌入刷新历史记录 9 00:00:26,809 --> 00:00:30,809 美股正迎来史无前例的资金涌入潮 10 00:00:30,809 --> 00:00:32,450 截至6月中旬 11 00:00:32,450 --> 00:00:35,600 儋州流入规模创下历史新高 12 00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:38,740 本轮流入呈现全面性特征 13 00:00:38,740 --> 00:00:41,100 不仅大盘股受捧 14 00:00:41,100 --> 00:00:44,939 中盘与小盘股基金同样吸金 15 00:00:44,939 --> 00:00:50,909 显著表明投资者风险偏好正向更广泛的市场延伸 16 00:00:50,909 --> 00:00:54,098 科技板块备受资金青睐 17 00:00:54,098 --> 00:00:58,279 科技股是本轮行情中最受追捧的板块 18 00:00:58,279 --> 00:01:01,700 单周资金流入规模创下历史新高 19 00:01:01,700 --> 00:01:07,579 这反映出投资者对人工智能相关主题的持续压注 20 00:01:08,250 --> 00:01:13,310 大型科技企业在人工智能基础设施上的巨额资本支出 21 00:01:13,310 --> 00:01:18,030 成为支撑市场信心的重要基本面支柱 22 00:01:19,170 --> 00:01:22,239 地缘缓和提振市场情绪 23 00:01:22,239 --> 00:01:27,409 中东战事的结束成为推动资金潮的核心催化剂 24 00:01:27,409 --> 00:01:32,000 有效遏制了政治支持率的下滑势头 25 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:34,340 随着地缘风险下降 26 00:01:34,340 --> 00:01:36,900 华尔街情绪整体乐观 27 00:01:36,900 --> 00:01:40,989 美国家庭股票财富大幅增加 28 00:01:40,989 --> 00:01:43,769 富国银行等机构看好后市 29 00:01:43,769 --> 00:01:44,569 预测 30 00:01:44,569 --> 00:01:47,259 标普指数将继续攀升 31 00:01:47,259 --> 00:01:50,858 天量供给考验市场消化力 32 00:01:50,858 --> 00:01:53,269 在资金狂潮下 33 00:01:53,269 --> 00:01:56,090 每股供给端同样史无前例 34 00:01:56,090 --> 00:02:01,120 不仅有史上规模最大的企业完成首次公开募股 35 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:05,799 多家科技巨头也在出售股票筹集资金 36 00:02:05,799 --> 00:02:07,799 市场能否持续消化 37 00:02:07,799 --> 00:02:09,439 如此庞大的供给 38 00:02:09,439 --> 00:02:14,360 将是检验本轮行情持续性的关键变量 39 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:19,060 潜在政治风险引发警惕 40 00:02:19,060 --> 00:02:20,759 尽管市场火热 41 00:02:20,759 --> 00:02:24,899 但策略师对潜在政治风险保持警惕 42 00:02:28,618 --> 00:02:31,469 可能引发市场剧烈冲击 43 00:02:31,469 --> 00:02:36,180 此外政治支持率的走势正成为重要信号 44 00:02:36,180 --> 00:02:38,460 若未能及时回升 45 00:02:38,460 --> 00:02:42,590 市场多头情绪或将变得焦虑不安 46 00:02:42,750 --> 00:02:45,689 半导体设备赢卖方市场 47 00:02:45,689 --> 00:02:50,069 人工智能交易热潮正向上游扩散 48 00:02:50,069 --> 00:02:52,830 半导体设备股全线大涨 49 00:02:52,830 --> 00:02:54,659 并创历史新高 50 00:02:54,659 --> 00:02:58,319 全球芯片巨头纷纷上调资本开支 51 00:02:58,319 --> 00:03:00,629 全力推进扩产 52 00:03:00,629 --> 00:03:03,550 导致设备供应持续紧张 53 00:03:03,550 --> 00:03:05,990 行业已进入卖方市场 54 00:03:05,990 --> 00:03:10,629 资本市场正对设备厂商进行重新定价 55 00:03:12,860 --> 00:03:14,719 华尔街多空畸变 56 00:03:14,719 --> 00:03:16,500 AI投资 57 00:03:18,259 --> 00:03:22,039 会计错配暗藏利润定时炸弹 58 00:03:22,039 --> 00:03:25,000 传奇空头查诺斯警告 59 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:33,060 当前AI热潮重现了2000年互联网泡沫前的会计错配风险 60 00:03:33,060 --> 00:03:36,000 芯片商可立即确认收入 61 00:03:42,650 --> 00:03:50,229 这种时间错配曾导致标普百指数利润在2001年暴跌40% 62 00:03:50,229 --> 00:03:55,050 当前繁荣的利润数据可能因此被虚增 63 00:03:55,610 --> 00:03:59,669 算力租赁本质是低回报金融生意 64 00:03:59,669 --> 00:04:01,090 查诺斯认为 65 00:04:01,090 --> 00:04:07,808 新兴的算力租赁公司如CORE wave本质上是设备租赁商 66 00:04:07,808 --> 00:04:09,800 而非科技公司 67 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:13,639 其商业模式类似于金融租赁 68 00:04:13,639 --> 00:04:16,689 在当前供需紧张的情况下 69 00:04:16,689 --> 00:04:20,459 税前投资回报率也仅为个位数 70 00:04:20,459 --> 00:04:24,680 他建议投资者应投资芯片生产的东西 71 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:28,220 而非芯片所在的地方 72 00:04:29,660 --> 00:04:34,779 多头反驳需求真实且估值为泡沫化 73 00:04:34,779 --> 00:04:38,480 科技投资人兹拉特夫反驳称 74 00:04:38,538 --> 00:04:44,218 当前AI需求可通过词源使用量实时追踪 75 00:04:44,218 --> 00:04:46,819 与1999年截然不同 76 00:04:46,819 --> 00:04:53,319 老旧GPU租金的飙升证明了需求的真实性 77 00:04:53,319 --> 00:05:00,430 此外英伟达等合金公司的远期市盈率远低于1999年泡沫时期水平 78 00:05:00,430 --> 00:05:03,550 整个板块并未出现全面泡沫化 79 00:05:04,829 --> 00:05:08,579 存储芯片迎卖方市场超级周期 80 00:05:08,579 --> 00:05:11,319 兹拉特夫指出 81 00:05:11,319 --> 00:05:15,870 AI模型演进导致存储需求爆炸式增长 82 00:05:15,870 --> 00:05:22,740 而半导体设备商的产能年增速上限仅为30%到35% 83 00:05:22,740 --> 00:05:25,220 构成物理硬约束 84 00:05:25,220 --> 00:05:28,990 这使得存储芯片行业进入卖方市场 85 00:05:28,990 --> 00:05:33,339 价格高位维持的时间将远超以往周期 86 00:05:33,339 --> 00:05:38,980 市场对其6~7倍的远期市盈率定价可能过于悲观 87 00:05:41,319 --> 00:05:45,060 太空数据中心面临物理与成本极限 88 00:05:45,060 --> 00:05:48,509 针对马斯克的太空数据中心构想 89 00:05:48,509 --> 00:05:51,759 查诺斯从商业逻辑上予以否定 90 00:05:51,759 --> 00:05:59,149 指出太空中的散热抗辐射和设备维修成本是致命约束 91 00:05:59,149 --> 00:06:04,810 且SPACEX的发射业务本身仍在亏损 92 00:06:04,810 --> 00:06:09,610 他认为该设想建立在过于遥远的未来预期之上 93 00:06:09,610 --> 00:06:13,720 难以支撑其近2万亿美元的估值 94 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:17,990 技术颠覆是多头最大的潜在风险 95 00:06:17,990 --> 00:06:20,230 尽管看好AI前景 96 00:06:20,230 --> 00:06:21,949 兹拉特夫也坦言 97 00:06:21,949 --> 00:06:25,230 其最大的担忧在于技术颠覆 98 00:06:25,230 --> 00:06:29,250 AI的缩放定律是经验规律 99 00:06:29,250 --> 00:06:31,399 而非物理定律 100 00:06:31,399 --> 00:06:36,800 若未来出现全新的非transformer架构的模型 101 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:40,939 能以极低的算力成本实现性能飞跃 102 00:06:40,939 --> 00:06:46,579 当前整个算力军备竞赛的投资逻辑基础将被动摇 103 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:53,459 may1瑞士首轮谈判开启 104 00:06:53,459 --> 00:06:56,459 聚焦核问题与海峡通行 105 00:06:56,459 --> 00:06:59,850 特朗普施压增添变数 106 00:07:01,220 --> 00:07:04,678 瑞士开启首轮高级别谈判 107 00:07:04,678 --> 00:07:10,870 美伊及调节国代表在瑞士开启首轮高级别会议 108 00:07:10,870 --> 00:07:16,500 美国副总统万斯与伊朗外长阿拉格奇出席 109 00:07:16,500 --> 00:07:17,519 万斯表示 110 00:07:17,519 --> 00:07:19,850 这是历史性团队会谈 111 00:07:19,850 --> 00:07:23,250 旨在厘清各方核心关切 112 00:07:23,250 --> 00:07:25,930 建立实际谈判架构 113 00:07:25,930 --> 00:07:28,620 为迈向和平奠定基础 114 00:07:28,620 --> 00:07:31,860 特朗普强硬施压引发波澜 115 00:07:31,860 --> 00:07:34,620 就在谈判开启之际 116 00:07:34,620 --> 00:07:37,839 特朗普在社交媒体发出严厉威胁 117 00:07:37,839 --> 00:07:42,120 要求伊朗立即阻止黎巴嫩代理人制造麻烦 118 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:45,300 否则将重启军事打击 119 00:07:45,300 --> 00:07:50,920 这一强硬表态给本就脆弱的谈判氛围蒙上阴影 120 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:54,720 增加了双方达成妥协的难度 121 00:07:55,689 --> 00:07:59,750 核心议题聚焦黎巴嫩与资产 122 00:08:00,110 --> 00:08:08,079 本轮谈判重点围绕黎巴嫩全面停火及伊朗海外冻结资产展开 123 00:08:08,079 --> 00:08:11,850 伊朗要求以色列从黎巴嫩撤军 124 00:08:12,370 --> 00:08:14,550 但以色列并非协议方 125 00:08:14,550 --> 00:08:16,769 且近期仍在交火 126 00:08:16,769 --> 00:08:19,189 德黑兰指责乙方违约 127 00:08:19,189 --> 00:08:23,668 甚至一度威胁再次关闭霍尔木兹海峡 128 00:08:23,908 --> 00:08:27,339 60天谈判窗口与延期即止 129 00:08:27,339 --> 00:08:30,339 根据此前签署的谅解备忘录 130 00:08:30,339 --> 00:08:33,480 双方拥有60天的谈判期限 131 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:38,379 以解决核计划与经济殊困等复杂议题 132 00:08:38,379 --> 00:08:41,399 该协议框架具有一定的灵活性 133 00:08:41,399 --> 00:08:44,240 允许在必要时进行延期 134 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:50,080 为旷日持久的磋商争取更多缓冲时间 135 00:08:51,279 --> 00:08:55,429 霍尔木兹海峡通行现转机 136 00:08:55,429 --> 00:08:58,830 尽管伊朗曾发出关闭海峡的警告 137 00:08:58,830 --> 00:09:02,159 但实际航运未受及时影响 138 00:09:02,159 --> 00:09:05,730 数百万桶石油仍在持续运输 139 00:09:05,730 --> 00:09:08,309 船舶追踪数据显示 140 00:09:08,309 --> 00:09:15,409 多艘满载原油的超大型邮轮已在阿曼湾重新出现 141 00:09:15,409 --> 00:09:19,850 显示局势在博弈中维持着微妙平衡 142 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:23,620 双方展现谨慎乐观态度 143 00:09:23,620 --> 00:09:27,360 伊朗代表团虽拒绝与美方合影 144 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:28,860 但万斯透露 145 00:09:28,860 --> 00:09:32,059 过去几小时已取得良好进展 146 00:09:32,059 --> 00:09:34,980 便有预期会有更多突破 147 00:09:34,980 --> 00:09:37,100 尽管分歧犹存 148 00:09:37,100 --> 00:09:40,919 且以色列的军事行动构成潜在威胁 149 00:09:40,919 --> 00:09:44,120 但双方正通过技术性讨论 150 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:47,360 逐步推进和平进程 151 00:09:48,409 --> 00:09:51,169 好我们挑一些热门的标题哈 152 00:09:51,169 --> 00:09:53,690 聊一聊怎么挑呢 153 00:09:53,690 --> 00:09:54,828 我们倒着挑 154 00:09:54,828 --> 00:09:56,288 我们来看一下微软 155 00:09:56,288 --> 00:10:01,129 微软和meta近期的走势呢都不是太理想 156 00:10:01,129 --> 00:10:03,750 好比如说meta好下来 157 00:10:03,750 --> 00:10:05,330 反弹下来 158 00:10:05,330 --> 00:10:08,889 反弹下来估计也就差不多了对吧 159 00:10:08,889 --> 00:10:13,820 那么近期这个日线图呢在上一个交易日有一点止跌迹象哈 160 00:10:13,820 --> 00:10:18,740 毕竟啊这里有点微微这个突破回踩这种形态出现哈 161 00:10:18,740 --> 00:10:23,799 所以啊我们在新的一周呢主要关注多头能不能延续的拉升啊 162 00:10:23,799 --> 00:10:25,269 强劲的拉升 163 00:10:25,269 --> 00:10:30,840 如果多头认为当前的上涨趋势线和当前的这个止跌止跌 164 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:32,539 这些形态是有效的话 165 00:10:32,539 --> 00:10:35,578 它势必会开始发力哈 166 00:10:35,578 --> 00:10:37,578 如果多头迟迟不肯发力 167 00:10:38,619 --> 00:10:42,169 那大家就要怀疑他会不会再跌一点 168 00:10:42,649 --> 00:10:45,740 那现在呢现在也看不出来哈 169 00:10:45,740 --> 00:10:47,940 你说他是突破回踩止跌吧 170 00:10:47,940 --> 00:10:50,720 这他也是你说他强吧 171 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:53,210 他也不是说太强 172 00:10:53,490 --> 00:10:54,210 为什么呢 173 00:10:54,210 --> 00:10:56,379 因为空头也有一定的力度哈 174 00:10:56,379 --> 00:10:58,519 就掩盖了多头的强度 175 00:10:58,519 --> 00:11:00,500 你看这儿的时候多头这么强 176 00:11:00,500 --> 00:11:02,820 空头就是一个小回调是吧 177 00:11:02,820 --> 00:11:06,190 但你要是这空头突然就发了一下力哈 178 00:11:06,190 --> 00:11:07,789 尽管没有使劲啊 179 00:11:07,789 --> 00:11:08,879 连续的砸 180 00:11:08,879 --> 00:11:13,350 但是啊总归感觉这多头有点颓废是吧 181 00:11:13,350 --> 00:11:15,389 所以啊在新的一周呢 182 00:11:15,389 --> 00:11:16,350 我们要关注啊 183 00:11:16,350 --> 00:11:18,629 多头能不能使劲拉升 184 00:11:19,710 --> 00:11:21,904 我们看一下它的5分钟图 185 00:11:23,919 --> 00:11:26,500 5分钟图啊也是一样哈 186 00:11:26,500 --> 00:11:28,980 它其实不是一个强空头行情 187 00:11:28,980 --> 00:11:30,700 也不是一个强多头行情 188 00:11:30,700 --> 00:11:32,259 它是一个震荡行情啊 189 00:11:32,259 --> 00:11:35,779 就这一片震荡行情的话 190 00:11:35,779 --> 00:11:38,539 我们可以按照震荡行情的思路去预期哈 191 00:11:38,539 --> 00:11:40,899 你比如说你就找一个支撑区 192 00:11:40,899 --> 00:11:43,159 你觉得支撑区有效的概率高 193 00:11:43,159 --> 00:11:44,970 你就做多啊 194 00:11:44,970 --> 00:11:48,250 因为他空头趋势不是说太强啊 195 00:11:48,250 --> 00:11:52,208 这两个东欧双方正在畸变哈 196 00:11:52,208 --> 00:11:53,908 他因为他们也在博弈对吧 197 00:11:53,908 --> 00:11:55,899 嗯它也可以啊 198 00:11:55,899 --> 00:11:56,899 继续震荡啊 199 00:11:56,899 --> 00:11:58,740 所以如果你简单一点哈 200 00:11:58,740 --> 00:12:00,179 它就是震荡行情 201 00:12:00,179 --> 00:12:02,259 震荡行情的交易手法很简单 202 00:12:02,259 --> 00:12:04,599 做震荡做多 203 00:12:04,599 --> 00:12:06,818 特别是震荡行情的支撑区哈 204 00:12:06,818 --> 00:12:11,259 富裕附近有这种二次底部的时候做多对吧 205 00:12:11,259 --> 00:12:13,490 嗯说空头不强吗 206 00:12:13,490 --> 00:12:14,269 不强啊 207 00:12:14,269 --> 00:12:15,970 多头不强吧也不强 208 00:12:15,970 --> 00:12:17,509 那就是震荡行情 209 00:12:17,509 --> 00:12:18,599 对不对 210 00:12:18,599 --> 00:12:21,019 我们再看一下日线是不是这个感觉 211 00:12:21,019 --> 00:12:22,778 所以我们画一个思路 212 00:12:22,778 --> 00:12:25,869 画一个换一种画法啊 213 00:12:25,869 --> 00:12:26,908 换一种思路啊 214 00:12:26,908 --> 00:12:28,509 似乎我们就有了依据哈 215 00:12:28,509 --> 00:12:30,168 就说你按照真的行情去做 216 00:12:30,168 --> 00:12:31,349 也应该做为do 217 00:12:31,349 --> 00:12:34,009 因为空头不是抢空头趋势啊 218 00:12:36,639 --> 00:12:44,649 同理微软也是类似微软近期呈现出哦头肩顶的这种大型的形态 219 00:12:44,649 --> 00:12:47,769 但其实头肩形态它也是震荡行情是吧 220 00:12:47,769 --> 00:12:51,169 所以如果我们能找到可能的支撑的理由 221 00:12:51,169 --> 00:12:56,139 比如说下跌曲线作为支撑位或者是下方的横线哈 222 00:12:56,139 --> 00:12:57,259 支撑位哈 223 00:12:57,259 --> 00:12:58,799 支撑去作为支撑位 224 00:12:58,799 --> 00:13:01,419 都是可以选择做错的理由 225 00:13:01,419 --> 00:13:04,360 那么目前的多头其实强度不是太大啊 226 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:08,698 就最新的这一根多头K线的总归感觉有点弱势啊 227 00:13:08,698 --> 00:13:11,879 所以在新的一周也是如果做震荡行情的话 228 00:13:11,879 --> 00:13:14,578 你也可以等这根下跌穿的右侧再去做 229 00:13:14,578 --> 00:13:17,458 如果你觉得是下跌栓是这根长的 230 00:13:17,458 --> 00:13:18,859 下跌穿的右侧 231 00:13:18,859 --> 00:13:22,499 那最好也还是再等一根阳线会好一点 232 00:13:23,309 --> 00:13:26,389 有人说之前抄底抄对了 233 00:13:26,389 --> 00:13:28,750 但他怎么不使劲涨呢 234 00:13:29,309 --> 00:13:33,990 刚才我们那个多空畸变AI投资那里边有一个啊 235 00:13:33,990 --> 00:13:37,750 就是说他有可能会有一些技术性的颠覆 236 00:13:37,750 --> 00:13:42,929 那么AI会不会颠覆传统的这些软件公司呢 237 00:13:42,929 --> 00:13:44,350 我觉得在几个月前 238 00:13:44,350 --> 00:13:47,078 甚至去年就已经开始讨论了 239 00:13:47,239 --> 00:13:50,278 你看市场其实认为会有一部分颠覆的 240 00:13:50,278 --> 00:13:51,599 它才会下跌哈 241 00:13:51,599 --> 00:13:56,529 所以微软这个命运我们也不知道会未来会怎么样对吧 242 00:13:56,529 --> 00:13:58,529 微软现在还有一张牌 243 00:13:58,529 --> 00:14:01,570 什么牌里OpenAI上市哈 244 00:14:01,570 --> 00:14:02,950 他也是股东之一吧 245 00:14:02,950 --> 00:14:03,980 应该是哈 246 00:14:03,980 --> 00:14:08,519 所以哈后续也有可能会有一些利好的消息面出来哈 247 00:14:08,519 --> 00:14:13,519 但在软件方面可能目前看起来没什么利好的消息面放出来啊 248 00:14:13,519 --> 00:14:17,509 所以这个图呢如果你相信要走大的多头波段的话 249 00:14:17,509 --> 00:14:19,869 也可以尝试在这个区域做多 250 00:14:19,869 --> 00:14:21,908 如果你觉得他走不了大趋势的话 251 00:14:21,908 --> 00:14:23,590 你就做震荡嗯 252 00:14:23,590 --> 00:14:27,259 如果感觉不知道他什么命运就不要做了 253 00:14:27,740 --> 00:14:29,500 有人说真想不到哈 254 00:14:29,500 --> 00:14:33,700 像这种龙头股也如今到如此地步嗯 255 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:38,659 好反倒高通什么的开始火了是吧 256 00:14:38,659 --> 00:14:41,679 我们高通在这两天复盘的时候呢 257 00:14:41,679 --> 00:14:43,059 有了新的洞察 258 00:14:43,059 --> 00:14:44,909 什么动什么查 259 00:14:44,990 --> 00:14:48,250 就是说这一片啊它整体是一个震荡区间啊 260 00:14:48,250 --> 00:14:53,049 这一片这一大片都是这个震荡区间是啥意思呢 261 00:14:53,049 --> 00:14:56,909 有可能有没有可能是上涨中继呢是有可能的啊 262 00:14:56,909 --> 00:15:01,289 就是说这盘整体是一个洗盘行情 263 00:15:01,470 --> 00:15:04,210 你看我在这在这画了个横线 264 00:15:04,210 --> 00:15:05,809 在这画了个斜线哈 265 00:15:05,809 --> 00:15:08,610 这两个呢正好被突破了啊 266 00:15:08,610 --> 00:15:13,799 这突破回台止跌又会带止跌对吧 267 00:15:14,500 --> 00:15:15,539 那么突破之后呢 268 00:15:15,539 --> 00:15:17,679 好像上方也没有什么新的阻力区啊 269 00:15:17,679 --> 00:15:20,559 那么当前的阻力区就是最近这一个多月啊 270 00:15:20,559 --> 00:15:21,779 一两个月形成的 271 00:15:21,779 --> 00:15:24,409 所以我觉得啊上行的概率会偏高 272 00:15:24,409 --> 00:15:27,289 嗯这几这里毕竟是横盘洗盘哈 273 00:15:29,009 --> 00:15:31,710 如果正如我所料的 274 00:15:31,710 --> 00:15:33,870 这片整体是一个大的洗盘行情 275 00:15:33,870 --> 00:15:35,850 那这就是突破回踩止跌止跌 276 00:15:35,850 --> 00:15:39,309 那么后期有可能有上行的可能性对吧 277 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:46,139 另外呢我们发现好空头其实在这明显变弱了啊 278 00:15:46,139 --> 00:15:47,720 你看这掉下来掉下来 279 00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:49,879 你看在这掉不下来 280 00:15:49,879 --> 00:15:51,950 掉不下来对吧 281 00:15:52,429 --> 00:15:53,970 特别是这根阴线哈 282 00:15:53,970 --> 00:15:56,389 收盘价比这就跌一丢丢哈 283 00:15:56,389 --> 00:15:59,029 次日我们就看到多头就弄起来了 284 00:15:59,029 --> 00:16:02,070 因为多头已经发现啊 285 00:16:02,070 --> 00:16:05,639 因为多头已经发现了这个发现了啥 286 00:16:05,639 --> 00:16:07,259 发现了空头跌不下去啊 287 00:16:07,259 --> 00:16:08,429 他就来一下 288 00:16:08,429 --> 00:16:10,649 但是这一天的K线也有点特殊 289 00:16:10,649 --> 00:16:11,409 怎么的 290 00:16:11,409 --> 00:16:12,549 他有下影线 291 00:16:12,549 --> 00:16:15,339 表明空头再次尝试过一下往下 292 00:16:15,339 --> 00:16:17,379 但你看又被拉了起来 293 00:16:17,379 --> 00:16:19,019 那么这样的话 294 00:16:19,299 --> 00:16:23,620 这根阳线和这根阴线共同表明空头无意砸盘啊 295 00:16:23,620 --> 00:16:25,820 这是我我我感受到的啊 296 00:16:25,820 --> 00:16:29,259 所以我们说友谊打板是上这大阴线 297 00:16:29,259 --> 00:16:30,220 大阴线这种 298 00:16:30,220 --> 00:16:33,590 但你像这个收盘价就低于这么一丢丢 299 00:16:33,590 --> 00:16:35,110 次日呢是往下砸了一下 300 00:16:35,110 --> 00:16:35,889 又弹了起来 301 00:16:35,889 --> 00:16:39,350 这其实是一个局部的双重底哈啊 302 00:16:39,350 --> 00:16:44,639 或者说一个啊不显眼的一个V型反转是吧是呗 303 00:16:44,639 --> 00:16:47,220 唉所以拉升回调止跌 304 00:16:47,220 --> 00:16:49,080 有可能往上继续走一走 305 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:52,359 我们看一下它5分钟图是不是这样哈 306 00:16:52,599 --> 00:16:55,278 你看这拉升了一波哈 307 00:16:55,278 --> 00:16:56,958 哎掉下来我掉不下去 308 00:16:56,958 --> 00:16:58,639 我弄下来还掉不下去 309 00:16:58,639 --> 00:17:00,818 又弄起来是吧 310 00:17:01,259 --> 00:17:01,859 好吧 311 00:17:01,859 --> 00:17:04,939 这个图看看周一能不能延续涨势 312 00:17:07,519 --> 00:17:13,059 啊我记得前两天评论区有个网友哈说台积电不会涨了呀 313 00:17:13,059 --> 00:17:14,559 台积电不会涨了呀 314 00:17:14,559 --> 00:17:16,799 他犯了什么错误 315 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:18,859 他犯了踩顶的错误哈 316 00:17:18,859 --> 00:17:21,839 我们说鼎对于这些热门龙头来说是很难的 317 00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:25,150 嗯刚才我们看到呃 318 00:17:25,150 --> 00:17:29,039 市场啊仍旧认为AI的需求有很多哈 319 00:17:29,039 --> 00:17:30,200 需求有很多 320 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:34,759 那么硬件端生产芯片的需求也很多咯是吧 321 00:17:34,759 --> 00:17:38,480 台积台积电就是最直接的受益者之一哈 322 00:17:38,700 --> 00:17:40,839 呃你看对 323 00:17:40,839 --> 00:17:41,920 再来一个大阳线 324 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:44,630 就是这图过去这几个将是也类似啊 325 00:17:44,630 --> 00:17:46,890 这儿虽然来了一个中等强度的阴线 326 00:17:46,890 --> 00:17:49,650 但次日大幅的跳上去了 327 00:17:49,650 --> 00:17:51,509 收盘价比这高很多啊 328 00:17:51,509 --> 00:17:52,920 这是一个阳线啊 329 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:56,638 当多头和空头都看到这一根K线的时候 330 00:17:56,638 --> 00:17:58,939 觉得啊你空头也就不过如此 331 00:17:58,939 --> 00:18:01,720 你竟然次日收出了阳线啊 332 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:03,619 这根黑线红的是阳线 333 00:18:03,619 --> 00:18:04,759 收盘价比这高 334 00:18:04,759 --> 00:18:06,640 你看次指直接跳上去啊 335 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:07,839 再大涨 336 00:18:07,839 --> 00:18:08,759 这说明啥 337 00:18:08,759 --> 00:18:10,720 只要你空头漏气 338 00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:13,140 多头好就毫不犹豫啊 339 00:18:13,140 --> 00:18:15,400 你看这也是只要你空头往下砸 340 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:16,700 你次日不敢使劲砸 341 00:18:16,700 --> 00:18:18,210 你看又跳上去了 342 00:18:18,210 --> 00:18:20,450 那你看这个和弦往下砸了一下 343 00:18:20,450 --> 00:18:22,230 又弹了起来对吧 344 00:18:22,230 --> 00:18:25,599 然后趁着这又又又砸了一下 345 00:18:25,599 --> 00:18:27,730 然后又弹了起来啊 346 00:18:27,730 --> 00:18:29,049 你看每次博弈完了 347 00:18:29,049 --> 00:18:31,390 空头只有一根光杆司令哈对吧 348 00:18:31,390 --> 00:18:32,769 这根黑线也是阳线 349 00:18:32,769 --> 00:18:34,390 收盘价比这高一点啊 350 00:18:34,390 --> 00:18:36,559 一根阴线跟着两根阳线 351 00:18:36,559 --> 00:18:37,920 一个又来一根阴线 352 00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:39,319 又给了两根是吧 353 00:18:39,319 --> 00:18:41,160 你看这又一根阴线又给了两根 354 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:42,000 那谁强啊 355 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:45,140 还是多头强呵是吧 356 00:18:45,140 --> 00:18:47,940 这就是我们详细的去感受每一根K线啊 357 00:18:47,940 --> 00:18:52,460 他的一个感觉说为什么这是这根黑线 358 00:18:52,460 --> 00:18:54,019 这阳线这么强 359 00:18:54,019 --> 00:18:56,420 为什么这还敢打一下啊 360 00:18:57,140 --> 00:18:57,980 你甭管 361 00:18:57,980 --> 00:19:01,640 反正就是说啊阳线之后你可以跟一根阴线 362 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:03,660 但你接下来你再跟阴线才行啊 363 00:19:03,660 --> 00:19:06,119 没有那给了个阳线是吧 364 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:08,539 同时呢这根K线有什么特点呢 365 00:19:08,539 --> 00:19:10,000 他没有去创新低啊 366 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:11,799 就这个根这根长下影线 367 00:19:11,799 --> 00:19:13,460 那个低点没有被跌破 368 00:19:13,460 --> 00:19:15,900 表明他就是内部的一个震荡啊 369 00:19:15,900 --> 00:19:18,519 是这根K线体内的内包K线 370 00:19:18,519 --> 00:19:21,220 我们看一下5分钟图的感觉 371 00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:27,900 你看这就是那个大型的下影线下行下跌反弹 372 00:19:27,900 --> 00:19:29,650 你看次数再怎么跌 373 00:19:29,650 --> 00:19:30,730 跌下来弹起来 374 00:19:30,730 --> 00:19:31,609 跌下来微微横盘 375 00:19:31,609 --> 00:19:32,009 跌下来 376 00:19:32,009 --> 00:19:33,009 唉又弹起来 377 00:19:33,009 --> 00:19:35,839 他就没有把这个下影线的低点哈 378 00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:38,859 这个微型反转低点跌下去就弹起来 379 00:19:38,859 --> 00:19:40,200 表明啥呀 380 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:43,200 它只是一个相对于这个低点的二次探底哈 381 00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:45,000 然后弹起来又掉下来 382 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:45,880 又传不了新低 383 00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:47,240 相反低点在抬高啊 384 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:48,119 又拉起来 385 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:51,039 所以我们看到后续拉升拉升是吧 386 00:19:51,039 --> 00:19:53,400 到后续大拉升 387 00:19:54,140 --> 00:19:58,909 所以空头若是有有迹象的哈 388 00:19:58,909 --> 00:20:00,269 这两根是阳线 389 00:20:00,269 --> 00:20:02,009 这儿有一个内包的阴线哈 390 00:20:02,009 --> 00:20:04,249 表明是这根黑线体内的一个震荡 391 00:20:04,249 --> 00:20:05,638 或者叫二次探底 392 00:20:05,638 --> 00:20:06,759 二次探底之后 393 00:20:06,759 --> 00:20:08,378 次日又来一个大阳线啊 394 00:20:08,378 --> 00:20:10,500 这什么探底止跌了对吧 395 00:20:10,500 --> 00:20:13,759 你看这实际上也是一个多重底哈 396 00:20:13,759 --> 00:20:15,170 下跌也反弹 397 00:20:15,170 --> 00:20:20,980 下跌反弹下跌反弹三重底是对呗 398 00:20:20,980 --> 00:20:23,380 所以这就是看K线哈 399 00:20:23,660 --> 00:20:24,660 好嘞 400 00:20:24,660 --> 00:20:26,519 那这根大阳线能踩顶吗 401 00:20:26,519 --> 00:20:28,839 其实是可以踩也可以不踩的 402 00:20:28,839 --> 00:20:30,660 倾向于不踩 403 00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:34,579 好阿光呢 404 00:20:34,579 --> 00:20:36,079 下周应该是有财报哈 405 00:20:37,319 --> 00:20:38,450 他也是一样哈 406 00:20:38,450 --> 00:20:40,109 咱们再重复一下 407 00:20:40,109 --> 00:20:41,930 到这个K线的阻阻力区的时候 408 00:20:41,930 --> 00:20:43,049 来了一根大阴线啊 409 00:20:43,049 --> 00:20:44,569 我们说要观察次日的表现 410 00:20:44,569 --> 00:20:46,519 你看次日是阳线好 411 00:20:46,519 --> 00:20:47,859 收盘价比这高啊 412 00:20:47,859 --> 00:20:49,420 阳线诶 413 00:20:49,420 --> 00:20:52,680 发现空头这么大阴线都没人继续做空啊 414 00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:54,269 反而来了个阳线 415 00:20:54,269 --> 00:20:56,450 或者啊你看这根K线的下影线 416 00:20:56,450 --> 00:20:58,390 空头确实是想做空来着 417 00:20:58,390 --> 00:21:01,759 比如说这跳到这跳空高开 418 00:21:01,759 --> 00:21:04,019 冲高回落往下砸是吧 419 00:21:04,019 --> 00:21:06,440 哎也确实把这个K线低点往下刺了一下 420 00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:07,819 但要弄得起来 421 00:21:07,819 --> 00:21:12,138 表明空头连这根黑线的低点往下砸都做不到 422 00:21:12,138 --> 00:21:13,398 都弹了起来 423 00:21:13,398 --> 00:21:14,979 最终呢收出了阳线啊 424 00:21:14,979 --> 00:21:16,459 这根K线收盘价比这要高 425 00:21:17,858 --> 00:21:20,200 那这样的话空头就太弱势了啊 426 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:21,480 如果真的是二次探顶的话 427 00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:23,089 不应该如此之弱势 428 00:21:23,089 --> 00:21:25,230 我们看到次日直接跳上去拉上去了 429 00:21:25,230 --> 00:21:26,529 而且创了新高 430 00:21:26,529 --> 00:21:30,400 所以说这个位置的阻力区也被变成了支撑区啊 431 00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:31,440 多头强吧 432 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:34,400 强确实先画好 433 00:21:35,380 --> 00:21:38,680 好我们就以日线图来解读哈 434 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:41,880 我们看一下PLTR也是票价 435 00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:45,220 我们的理论是按照局部的震荡预期 436 00:21:46,309 --> 00:21:49,079 之前在这做多的朋友没问题 437 00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:51,000 但如果我们是纯波段交易者 438 00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:54,099 我们一定会画局部波段趋势线的对吧 439 00:21:54,099 --> 00:21:55,539 这又有止跌K线啊 440 00:21:55,539 --> 00:21:56,599 长长的下影线 441 00:21:56,599 --> 00:21:58,429 这又有又拉升 442 00:21:58,429 --> 00:22:01,449 当多头发现好好多次在这里筑底 443 00:22:01,449 --> 00:22:03,849 都没有走出强多头趋势的话 444 00:22:03,849 --> 00:22:04,990 就失望了 445 00:22:04,990 --> 00:22:06,769 我看到当前这有点失望啊 446 00:22:06,769 --> 00:22:09,259 谁失望多头有点失望啊 447 00:22:09,259 --> 00:22:10,700 这低又掉下来了 448 00:22:10,700 --> 00:22:12,359 所以下周一旦出现大阴线啊 449 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:13,859 一到两根大阴线往下砸 450 00:22:13,859 --> 00:22:15,000 多头彻底离场 451 00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:16,190 不要做了 452 00:22:16,190 --> 00:22:17,789 这里如果还有阳线的话 453 00:22:17,789 --> 00:22:20,829 其实不应该也应该特别强势才对 454 00:22:20,829 --> 00:22:22,390 因为这洗盘时间太久了啊 455 00:22:22,390 --> 00:22:23,990 如果他真的是底的话 456 00:22:23,990 --> 00:22:26,359 需要打阳线来拉升才行 457 00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:27,599 但如果相反 458 00:22:27,599 --> 00:22:28,839 多头还是很弱势 459 00:22:28,839 --> 00:22:32,950 要提防往下漏跌下去的这种悲观的情形 460 00:22:32,950 --> 00:22:35,210 那最新的这根K线是一根阴线哈 461 00:22:35,210 --> 00:22:39,190 但有下影线表明多空双方在此还在纠结哈 462 00:22:39,459 --> 00:22:40,858 空头也有点纠结 463 00:22:40,858 --> 00:22:41,939 我要不要打下去呢 464 00:22:41,939 --> 00:22:43,199 这是空头的想法 465 00:22:43,199 --> 00:22:47,659 而多头认为自己不像之前愿意做多了 466 00:22:48,179 --> 00:22:52,740 所以我也发出了这种啊犹豫的那种状态 467 00:22:52,740 --> 00:22:54,160 到底要不要再继续做多 468 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:54,740 对吧 469 00:22:54,740 --> 00:22:56,940 嗯反反复复助理失败啊 470 00:22:56,940 --> 00:22:58,779 你要注意了 471 00:22:59,140 --> 00:23:02,059 我看一下阿通阿通这个图 472 00:23:02,059 --> 00:23:03,980 这财报导致的对吧 473 00:23:03,980 --> 00:23:07,549 你看掉下来反弹掉下来反弹 474 00:23:07,549 --> 00:23:09,230 其实这根影线也是一个反弹 475 00:23:09,230 --> 00:23:10,609 再掉下来再反弹 476 00:23:10,609 --> 00:23:11,809 好掉不下去 477 00:23:11,809 --> 00:23:13,599 这又掉下来一下又反弹 478 00:23:13,599 --> 00:23:16,279 实际上这也是一个至少是一个三重底哈 479 00:23:16,279 --> 00:23:19,960 下跌反弹下跌反弹下跌反弹做啥呀 480 00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:22,470 做多好嘞 481 00:23:22,470 --> 00:23:24,490 我们就解释这几只哈 482 00:23:24,490 --> 00:23:27,170 最后欢迎大家去看我们的会员视频 483 00:23:27,170 --> 00:23:28,410 牛股内容的盒子 484 00:23:28,410 --> 00:23:31,799 绿宝石这个哈也可以去看前几期内容 485 00:23:31,799 --> 00:23:33,799 那我们呢盘前呢要继续跟进哈 486 00:23:33,799 --> 00:23:34,980 明天好 487 00:23:34,980 --> 00:23:35,960 盘前再看了啊 488 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:36,759 拜拜
评论采集失败
采集完成，该视频无弹幕