【NaNa说美股】20260514 7倍杠杆做空美股！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是5月14号周四

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美股三大股指延续了近期涨

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是标普与纳指双双刷新纪录高位

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标普500更是首次站上了7500点

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这个关键里程碑

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尽管近期通胀利率与地缘政治压力持续升温

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但市场呢依旧展现出极强的韧性

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多头情绪牢牢的占据主导

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数据面上

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美国4月零售销售环比增长0.5%

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为今年1月以来最低增速

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但是仍然连续三个月保持增长

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数据符合市场预期

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前值为1.6%

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消费明显开始降温

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但暂时还没有出现全面转弱的迹象

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部分增长实际上来自通胀本身

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因为伊朗战争推高了能源与其他大宗商品价格

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美国能源信息署数据显示

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4月美国汽油价格上涨了12.3%

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不过呢由于今年退税规模较大

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目前消费者尚未明显削减其他领域支出

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10年期美债收益率仍在4.5%附近徘徊

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川普大扣红线

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对债权空头形成了有效的震慑力

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大家都知道

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只要不越雷池

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这个美股流动性环境就不会缺氧

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标普500指数继续攀升

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当前多头结构依然非常的稳固

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但市场广度正在持续收窄

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目前指数中不到60%的成份股

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同时高于50日与200日均线

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说明真正推动指数上涨的力量

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则越来越集中在少数核心股票与热门板块上

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不过市场收窄并不一定意味着顶部马上到来

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很多最猛烈的主升浪

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恰恰发生在市场广度急剧收窄的阶段哈

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这是因为机构资金疯狂抱团

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集中追逐最强蓄势的时候

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真正需要警惕的信号呢是未来

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如果市场分化进一步扩大

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同时资金开始从科技股转向防御性资产

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那才意味着风险偏好明显的降温

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但是截止今天市场还没有走到这一步

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标普500载伽马水平从3月底的深度负值区域

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一路飙升到了2021年以来最高水平

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创下历史最快修复速度

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这意味着做13仍在通过被动买盘

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持续为市场拖地

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今天指数稳稳的收在7500.3方

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而机构资金并没有提前出现

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任何明显的获利了结的行动啊

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这说明市场对于明天5月15号的月度

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期权结算非常有信心

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至少在期权到期之前

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多投暂时还没有松手的意思

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道指近期表现挣扎

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已经高位横盘震荡了一个多月

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始终无法突破

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今年年初的高点与QQ之间的背离呢也持续扩大

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并没有参与到这一轮AI牛市中嗯

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AI叙事哈虽然让科技股暂时对利率脱敏

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但是传统行业没有AI护

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提高利率环境下压力巨大

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比如公用事业

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电力股vs st

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虽然也有AI电力的故事

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但是毕竟属于重资产行业

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利率一高

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估值还是扛不住

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因股价呢

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就像这个太阳底下的黄油一样的慢慢融化

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还有装修老的兴宁家园

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Home depot

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这个股价都跌傻了

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曾几何时

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这股票也是机构与散户眼中的白月光朱砂痣呀

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如今却变成了白饭粒

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蚊子血了

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美联储一天不降息

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像home depot这种利率敏感型的资产

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就一天硬不起来

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我们之前曾解析过

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当稻子与纳指长时间严重背离的时候啊

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最后的调整要么得通过道指补涨来完成

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要么通过纳指补跌来出清哈

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不会永远这么背离下去的

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与此同时

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美股散户的交易主线也正在发生一些变化

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除了继续追捧半导体资产之外呢

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散户资金正在加速流出软件板块

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并且转向铜矿ETF

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以及被对冲基金重仓做空的一些秘股

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前天周二在中国需求回暖

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AI带动同需求

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以及中东流缓供应风险的共同刺激之下

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铜矿ETFCOPAX单日买入量创下近期新高

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成交量也明显放大

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不过今天已经开始出现了部分获利了结

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此外固定收益ETF

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股息策略ETF

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以及继股票ETF业获得明显的散户资金流入

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这说明即便市场仍在炒AI

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但是越来越多

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散户呢也已经开始悄悄地增加防御性配置

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就在市场情绪极度拥挤的同时

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空头其实并没有完全消失呃

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只是换了地方继续下注

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据look on shade呢

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监测加密货币链上

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某巨基正在大规模加仓做空标普500嗯

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该交易者他使用的是链上永续合约来做空美股

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在指数约7100点附近就入场了

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使用了七倍杠杆

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这意味着该仓位的波动会被放大七倍

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随着指数近日持续上涨

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它持有的约3770万美元的空头头寸

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已经浮亏了超过222万美元

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尽管目前处于亏损状态

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但是呃该交易员仍在继续加仓做空头寸哈

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压住美股最终会大跌

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清算的价格呢为8104.94

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也就是说

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如果标普500指数继续上到了这个位置

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他的这一笔千万级美元的仓位就会被强制平掉

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资金归零呃

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这笔单子反映了市场中

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还是有一部分非常激进的空头观点啊

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当前美股市场存在极端的善行疲态和仓位拥挤

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这位金鱼可能认为AI驱动的暴涨已经接近顶点

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或者预计债券收益率的冲击将会最终击垮股市

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所以选择在高位顶着这个亏损压力

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继续死磕空单

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从这个巨鲸它嗯亏损加仓空头头寸的行为来看

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这应该不是一笔对冲单

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而是单方面的看空

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这种行为呢也印证了摩根大通交易员

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前面提到的善行恐慌

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就是formal呃

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但这种巨量空单最终被逼减仓或者爆仓的时候

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往往就会形成最后的空头挤压

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迫使指数进一步冲高

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所以并不是空投完全绝迹哈

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而是他们在一些隐秘的角落做空

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不过呢尽管存在着风险和各种担忧

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摩根大通交易台在战术上依然维持对美股看涨

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这种观点

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基于目前强大的市场惯性

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持续流入的流动性

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以及AI技术带来的长期生产力增长预期啊

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蒙古达通认为

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当前美股多空博弈开始加剧

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对极端挤压呢保持高度的戒备

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虽然中东局势与债券收益率波动的人

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是最大的风险

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但是在基本面没有真正恶化之前

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逢低买入哈依然是当前的优选策略

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而真正决定未来市场方向的关键变量

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或许很快就会转向美联储啦

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昨天美国参议院以54票对45票通过

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明天5月15号就要正式接替鲍威尔窝社

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接手的不只是一个通胀重新升温的市场

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更是一个内部高度分裂的美联储

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尤其是终极大哥派李斯米兰

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今天就提交辞呈了

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这让FOMC内部

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原本偏向川普阵营的声音进一步减弱

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这就很考验窝舍了哈

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如果他不降息呢

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无法对川普交代

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但如果不顾数据强行降息

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又会遭遇FMC内部和外界的巨大质疑

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我认为窝舍短期内虽然不能降息

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但是大概率会采取嘴炮方割

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比如不断的强调

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一旦数据允许

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将会快速大幅的降息

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这同样可以达到让市场兴奋的效果

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哈哈降息其实也没什么两样

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所以嗯真正值得关注的啊

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不是他会不会立刻降息

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而是他对于缩表流动性

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以及未来政策沟通的态度啊

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这才是这个市场呃最关注的问题

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费城半导体指数呢高位整理

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摩根大通的拥挤度模型显示

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半导体板块的拥挤度已经达到了

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99.3%的历史极端水平了

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与此同时

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空头头寸却维持在较低水平

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这说明大量资金仍在单边做多哈

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嗯没有多少空头敢逆势做空半导体

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然后继续加仓这个半导体板块

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周二那天费办指数盘中呃突然扭转跌势哈

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售出这么一根带有超长下影线的十字星

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原因找到了

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原来

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当天呢出现了史上最大规模的三倍做多

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半导体ETFSOXL资金流入

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这要是说是散户手笔

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而不是机构手笔的话

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我不相信的哈

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绝对是一些机构在后面支撑的

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就像我们在这几天视频里所说的

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如今半导体里面啊全都是衍生品

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期权与二倍三倍杠杆ETF

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在强化这个上升趋势嗯

211
00:10:13,940 --> 00:10:19,099
交易员们通过杠杆来追逐更高的风险收益

212
00:10:19,099 --> 00:10:21,538
但是这个是一把双刃剑哈

213
00:10:21,538 --> 00:10:24,499
他们在市场上涨的时候会买入更多

214
00:10:24,499 --> 00:10:28,149
就加剧这个呃向上喷发的展示

215
00:10:28,149 --> 00:10:29,590
但是在下跌的时候呢

216
00:10:29,590 --> 00:10:31,019
也会加剧抛售

217
00:10:31,019 --> 00:10:34,600
软件板块的拥挤度就只有22.8%

218
00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:35,720
值得注意的是

219
00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:40,129
空头资金正在软件板块持续聚集

220
00:10:40,129 --> 00:10:43,970
挤压的风险指标已经达到了100%的极值

221
00:10:43,970 --> 00:10:45,529
难怪今天IGV涨了

222
00:10:45,529 --> 00:10:48,879
原来是逼空华尔街资网剧top acock

223
00:10:48,879 --> 00:10:51,100
最新披露的是3A报告显示

224
00:10:51,100 --> 00:10:55,019
该行在Q1大举加仓了芯片股和能源股

225
00:10:55,019 --> 00:10:59,320
增持最多的前五大股票分别是嗯X森美孚

226
00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:00,740
强森雪佛龙

227
00:11:00,740 --> 00:11:02,919
应用材料和美光科技

228
00:11:02,919 --> 00:11:06,360
与此同时坚持了七大巨头中的五大巨头

229
00:11:06,360 --> 00:11:07,440
分别是微软

230
00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:08,100
英伟达

231
00:11:08,100 --> 00:11:08,779
特斯拉

232
00:11:08,779 --> 00:11:10,078
苹果和meta

233
00:11:10,078 --> 00:11:12,639
虽然这几家科技巨头仍然位列

234
00:11:12,639 --> 00:11:14,479
black cock的前十大持仓

235
00:11:14,479 --> 00:11:17,198
但这更像是被动指数配置需求

236
00:11:17,198 --> 00:11:19,289
而并非是主动进攻

237
00:11:19,690 --> 00:11:21,730
black cook的这个13F持仓

238
00:11:21,730 --> 00:11:24,110
在相当程度上映射出美股市场

239
00:11:24,110 --> 00:11:27,190
在今年一季度时候的分享变化

240
00:11:27,190 --> 00:11:31,120
就是资金正在从卖铲子的人逐步扩大到

241
00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:34,700
或者说转移到建厂子工厂的那一批人

242
00:11:34,700 --> 00:11:35,639
想应用材料

243
00:11:35,639 --> 00:11:37,120
煤矿科技这些

244
00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:39,759
这与我们看到的杠杆ETF

245
00:11:39,759 --> 00:11:44,429
疯狂涌入半导体板块的逻辑是一致的

246
00:11:44,429 --> 00:11:45,029
但是black

247
00:11:45,029 --> 00:11:49,220
coco选择的是更具防御性和基本面支撑的标的哈

248
00:11:49,220 --> 00:11:52,259
他大举加仓X森美孚和雪佛龙呢

249
00:11:52,259 --> 00:11:55,109
也是一个非常明确的宏观信号

250
00:11:55,109 --> 00:11:57,149
就是显然在压住通胀

251
00:11:57,149 --> 00:11:59,408
可能会比市场预期的更持久

252
00:11:59,408 --> 00:12:02,208
所以通过能源和价值股来对冲

253
00:12:02,208 --> 00:12:04,220
未来利率上行的风险

254
00:12:04,220 --> 00:12:05,440
其他个股方面

255
00:12:05,440 --> 00:12:09,328
AI芯片新贵CBERS今天首日秀

256
00:12:09,328 --> 00:12:12,788
认购需求超过发行股份数量的20倍

257
00:12:12,788 --> 00:12:15,408
IPO价格每股185美元

258
00:12:15,408 --> 00:12:17,750
开盘就350美元了哈

259
00:12:17,750 --> 00:12:20,509
尾盘最终收涨68%

260
00:12:20,509 --> 00:12:23,289
市值达到了约670亿美元

261
00:12:23,289 --> 00:12:26,509
桌子大的芯片也吼着跳着要挑战英伟达

262
00:12:26,509 --> 00:12:28,590
也就是现在市场真的疯狂嘛

263
00:12:28,590 --> 00:12:29,789
情绪火热

264
00:12:29,789 --> 00:12:32,990
所以这股票上市真的是赶上了好时候

265
00:12:32,990 --> 00:12:35,509
con bese股价呢涨超5%克

266
00:12:35,509 --> 00:12:39,389
LARRY提法案获得参议院银行委员会通过

267
00:12:39,389 --> 00:12:43,679
法案已经正式被提交到参议院全体进行表决

268
00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:45,879
我今天真的是拍断大腿啊

269
00:12:45,879 --> 00:12:48,440
本来开盘那会儿我就想买corn base的

270
00:12:53,370 --> 00:12:54,690
比特币都会下跌

271
00:12:54,690 --> 00:12:57,269
而且我手里已经持有罗宾户的

272
00:12:57,269 --> 00:12:59,649
所以当时就有点犹豫嗯

273
00:12:59,649 --> 00:13:04,059
就犹豫犹豫着跑去看那个隔壁的working lab了

274
00:13:04,059 --> 00:13:06,139
结果等我后面想起来了

275
00:13:06,139 --> 00:13:07,059
再跑回来

276
00:13:07,059 --> 00:13:07,500
宽被子

277
00:13:07,500 --> 00:13:09,000
股价已经拉起来了

278
00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:10,309
客观来说哈

279
00:13:10,309 --> 00:13:13,269
corn base现在这个位置其实也没涨多少

280
00:13:13,269 --> 00:13:15,110
若是这个clarity法案

281
00:13:15,110 --> 00:13:16,909
这对他是重大利好的话

282
00:13:16,909 --> 00:13:18,610
现在买也不迟啦

283
00:13:18,610 --> 00:13:23,049
就是怕万一这个大饼回调把他给拖下去

284
00:13:23,049 --> 00:13:24,818
所以我现在也纠结了

285
00:13:24,818 --> 00:13:26,739
英伟达涨超4%

286
00:13:26,739 --> 00:13:28,899
市值逼近6万亿美元了

287
00:13:28,899 --> 00:13:31,039
大家现在呢一边看好

288
00:13:31,039 --> 00:13:32,840
因为达下周财报

289
00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:34,320
一边又害怕他

290
00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:38,370
股价走出前几次那种利好出尽的走势

291
00:13:38,370 --> 00:13:42,629
所以现在都全部赶在财报前拼命的爆炒

292
00:13:42,629 --> 00:13:44,009
吃一波就跑

293
00:13:44,009 --> 00:13:46,289
只有那些信心最强

294
00:13:46,289 --> 00:13:50,619
胆子最大的投资者敢拿着这个持股过财报

295
00:13:50,619 --> 00:13:51,619
话说回来哈

296
00:13:51,619 --> 00:13:54,958
前面几次他的财报股价全都高开低走

297
00:13:54,958 --> 00:13:57,620
那说不定华尔街这次要换剧本呢

298
00:13:57,620 --> 00:14:02,519
全球最大网络设备制造商CISCO季后股价大涨

299
00:14:02,519 --> 00:14:03,639
创历史新高

300
00:14:03,639 --> 00:14:06,679
业绩和前年指引了全面超预期

301
00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:10,559
超大云服务商订单上调到90亿美元

302
00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:12,460
原先预测为50亿美元

303
00:14:12,460 --> 00:14:13,940
为了调整重心

304
00:14:13,940 --> 00:14:15,259
适应AI时代

305
00:14:15,259 --> 00:14:18,370
公司宣布将会裁员近4000人

306
00:14:18,370 --> 00:14:23,029
CSCODE这份强暴也强化了当下市场的AI蓄势

307
00:14:23,029 --> 00:14:25,340
进一步推动市场情绪升温

308
00:14:25,340 --> 00:14:28,580
股价年内累计涨幅已经超过51%了

309
00:14:28,580 --> 00:14:29,860
跑赢英伟达哈

310
00:14:29,860 --> 00:14:32,799
是英伟达26%涨幅的一倍

311
00:14:32,799 --> 00:14:37,000
光通信概念股POET飙升43%

312
00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:40,370
这真的是撑死胆大的饿死胆小的哈

313
00:14:40,370 --> 00:14:41,330
消息面上

314
00:14:41,330 --> 00:14:44,860
公司和LUMINANCE达成了一项供应协议

315
00:14:44,860 --> 00:14:49,480
建立战略联合开发和商业技术合作伙伴关系

316
00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:52,349
推动晶圆及光子集成技术

317
00:14:52,349 --> 00:14:55,549
助力下一代人工智能光学网络发展

318
00:14:55,549 --> 00:14:57,429
作为该框架的一部分

319
00:14:57,429 --> 00:14:59,549
LUMINANCE向POET呢

320
00:14:59,549 --> 00:15:03,169
送了一份价值5000万美元的采购订单

321
00:15:03,169 --> 00:15:06,919
就是补上那个迈威尔科技呃

322
00:15:06,919 --> 00:15:09,259
拿走的那份单子的数额嘛

323
00:15:09,259 --> 00:15:13,078
而POET呢授予了LUMINANCE斯一份认股权证

324
00:15:13,078 --> 00:15:16,538
允许后者购买至多2300万股普通股

325
00:15:16,538 --> 00:15:18,519
可以在9年内行权

326
00:15:18,519 --> 00:15:21,279
行权价格为每股8.25美元

327
00:15:21,279 --> 00:15:23,879
现在美股AI概念圈子里哈

328
00:15:23,879 --> 00:15:24,960
是越来越流行

329
00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:30,809
这种订单与认股权证板这个联合的资本玩法

330
00:15:30,809 --> 00:15:32,649
一边讲AI故事

331
00:15:32,649 --> 00:15:36,590
一边呢通过股权绑定来互相抬估值

332
00:15:36,590 --> 00:15:37,620
拉股价

333
00:15:37,620 --> 00:15:39,720
只要市场情绪够热

334
00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:41,100
流动性足够充裕

335
00:15:41,100 --> 00:15:42,840
资金就愿意继续买单

336
00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:45,610
嗯所以我不知道这个今年一季度

337
00:15:45,610 --> 00:15:47,830
科技企业盈利大增

338
00:15:47,830 --> 00:15:49,129
是不是就是这样子

339
00:15:49,129 --> 00:15:50,590
互相拉股价

340
00:15:50,590 --> 00:15:52,419
拉估值给抬起来的哈

341
00:15:52,419 --> 00:15:56,419
无人机概念股ONDS涨了26.5%

342
00:15:56,419 --> 00:15:59,440
公司第一季度营收5000领10万美元

343
00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:01,299
同比增长超过十倍

344
00:16:01,299 --> 00:16:02,960
环比增长66%

345
00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:07,340
季度末订单积压额呢为4.57亿美元呃

346
00:16:07,340 --> 00:16:10,659
公司预计2026年将会保持强劲的增长势头

347
00:16:10,659 --> 00:16:14,840
并且将全年营收目标上调至至少3.9亿美元

348
00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:17,849
比去年同期增长670%

349
00:16:17,849 --> 00:16:20,688
恒生科技哈最近是真的很惨

350
00:16:20,688 --> 00:16:22,318
我我很少说港股

351
00:16:25,979 --> 00:16:29,039
全场消费是由港股股民买单的呀

352
00:16:29,039 --> 00:16:32,340
这幸亏昨天我把那个阿里巴巴全抛了

353
00:16:32,340 --> 00:16:34,600
看看恒生科技这几年走势哈

354
00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:36,179
这到底啥玩意儿

355
00:16:36,179 --> 00:16:40,759
全中国最顶级的科技巨头全都集中在这里

356
00:16:40,759 --> 00:16:43,089
结果指数走成这个鬼样子哈

357
00:16:43,089 --> 00:16:46,288
美股AI投资烧的是资本故事

358
00:16:46,288 --> 00:16:48,048
但是股民们赚钱了呀

359
00:16:48,048 --> 00:16:51,169
港股这边烧的全都是股民和暴利的钱

360
00:16:51,169 --> 00:16:54,769
港股股民们这些年到底过的是什么苦日子呀

361
00:16:54,769 --> 00:16:55,690
利好来了

362
00:16:55,690 --> 00:16:56,590
高开低走

363
00:16:56,590 --> 00:16:57,370
业绩好了

364
00:16:57,370 --> 00:16:58,289
冲高回落

365
00:16:58,289 --> 00:16:58,970
AI来了

366
00:16:58,970 --> 00:17:00,000
继续投人

367
00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:02,340
真的我能劝一个是一个哈

368
00:17:02,340 --> 00:17:05,358
别天天在港股里面修仙渡劫了

369
00:17:05,358 --> 00:17:07,239
你早点开美股账户吧

370
00:17:07,239 --> 00:17:10,328
看看对面台湾的股市都涨成什么样了

371
00:17:10,328 --> 00:17:12,169
韩国欧巴们都不打工了哈

372
00:17:12,169 --> 00:17:15,279
天天炒股票都财富自由了行

373
00:17:15,279 --> 00:17:17,000
今天我们就说到这里

374
00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:19,559
那我们明天见拜拜

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