BV1ruZcBEELN · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:01,120 你好 2 00:00:01,120 --> 00:00:03,459 欢迎观看布克斯交易课程 3 00:00:03,459 --> 00:00:04,759 这个视频是反转的 4 00:00:04,759 --> 00:00:06,320 第二节课 5 00:00:11,199 --> 00:00:13,519 反转是进入趋势的最早机会 6 00:00:14,960 --> 00:00:16,000 风险较小 7 00:00:16,000 --> 00:00:19,189 因为你是在上涨趋势的底部买入 8 00:00:19,669 --> 00:00:22,068 或者在下降趋势的顶部做空 9 00:00:22,068 --> 00:00:23,868 缺点是胜率较低 10 00:00:23,868 --> 00:00:26,519 至少刚开始的时候是这样 11 00:00:26,519 --> 00:00:28,339 我的80%法则 12 00:00:28,339 --> 00:00:32,439 震荡区间中80%的突破尝试会失败 13 00:00:34,679 --> 00:00:38,000 我也会讲到一个你经常会听到的结构 14 00:00:39,259 --> 00:00:40,859 茶杯带柄杯柄形态 15 00:00:40,859 --> 00:00:43,420 他的意思是市场发生了大反转 16 00:00:43,420 --> 00:00:45,829 然后有一些回调 17 00:00:45,990 --> 00:00:46,750 大反转 18 00:00:46,750 --> 00:00:48,070 向茶杯回调 19 00:00:48,070 --> 00:00:49,390 象杯饼 20 00:00:58,799 --> 00:01:03,359 在第一次反转时就入场的优势是风险较小 21 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:08,359 是整个趋势中风险最小的时候 22 00:01:08,780 --> 00:01:10,980 例如在这里开仓做空 23 00:01:10,980 --> 00:01:11,739 风险小 24 00:01:11,739 --> 00:01:12,540 回报大 25 00:01:13,780 --> 00:01:16,969 然而概率通常也较低 26 00:01:17,569 --> 00:01:20,489 在趋势形成之后入场胜率更高 27 00:01:21,890 --> 00:01:24,849 但在这个时候止损更远 28 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:29,019 当你看到趋势正在发展 29 00:01:29,019 --> 00:01:31,260 当你看到市场在单边上涨 30 00:01:31,260 --> 00:01:33,680 入场永远不会太晚 31 00:01:35,019 --> 00:01:38,009 比如这里在反转时买入 32 00:01:38,009 --> 00:01:39,629 或者在这里买入 33 00:01:39,629 --> 00:01:41,649 只是其中一种入场的方式 34 00:01:41,649 --> 00:01:44,808 还有很多其他进入趋势的方法 35 00:01:47,239 --> 00:01:51,480 3~4次下跌一或者123 36 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:53,219 所以这是一个楔形底 37 00:01:53,219 --> 00:01:56,219 你也可以说它是低点降低的大反转 38 00:01:56,379 --> 00:02:00,750 下降趋势多头突破更低的低点 39 00:02:01,069 --> 00:02:03,250 反转是最早的入场点 40 00:02:03,250 --> 00:02:05,349 要么在这个小双底的上方 41 00:02:05,349 --> 00:02:06,950 要么在这个阳线上方 42 00:02:06,950 --> 00:02:09,310 买单会在那里成交 43 00:02:10,479 --> 00:02:13,639 然而还有很多其他入场的方法 44 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:15,939 反转入场是最早的一个 45 00:02:15,939 --> 00:02:18,860 但总有很多进入趋势的方法 46 00:02:18,860 --> 00:02:22,840 这里有一个高粱牛鳍和双底抢购高潮 47 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:24,829 测试抢购高潮的底部 48 00:02:24,829 --> 00:02:26,908 漂亮的阳线反转上涨 49 00:02:26,908 --> 00:02:30,068 你可以在那根K线的高点上方买入买单 50 00:02:30,068 --> 00:02:32,849 在非常强的突破惊喜K线 51 00:02:32,849 --> 00:02:35,389 惊喜K线之后通常会有跟随 52 00:02:35,389 --> 00:02:37,930 你可以在他的收强势的跟随K线 53 00:02:37,930 --> 00:02:40,080 大概率还会上涨 54 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:41,819 反转的尝试 55 00:02:41,819 --> 00:02:44,080 在如此强势的突破之后 56 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:46,180 反转很可能会失败 57 00:02:46,180 --> 00:02:48,560 所以交易者会在低位买入 58 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:49,460 压住空头 59 00:02:49,460 --> 00:02:50,439 突破会失败 60 00:02:50,439 --> 00:02:51,689 高二买入点 61 00:02:51,689 --> 00:02:55,750 这里是高一这个阳线上方买入是高两 62 00:02:55,750 --> 00:03:00,330 初始止损放这里或这里或这里止损较远 63 00:03:00,330 --> 00:03:03,289 然而胜率非常高 64 00:03:03,689 --> 00:03:06,550 高三高一在这根K线上方 65 00:03:06,550 --> 00:03:08,569 高两在这根K线上方 66 00:03:08,569 --> 00:03:11,050 现在有一个高三的楔形牛旗 67 00:03:11,050 --> 00:03:15,169 123在那个做多信号K的高点上方买入 68 00:03:15,169 --> 00:03:18,169 订单会在这里多头突破之后有小的暂停 69 00:03:18,169 --> 00:03:23,120 这是高一牛骑在那根K线的高点上方买入 70 00:03:24,199 --> 00:03:26,139 明显的三次向上推动 71 00:03:26,139 --> 00:03:30,960 123空投最早的入场点是在反转K线的下方 72 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:34,629 挂突破卖单吞噬大阴线 73 00:03:34,629 --> 00:03:35,870 收在最低 74 00:03:35,870 --> 00:03:38,009 此时反转的概率还不高 75 00:03:38,009 --> 00:03:40,490 市场更有可能会横盘而不是下跌 76 00:03:40,490 --> 00:03:42,729 然而数学期望是好的 77 00:03:42,729 --> 00:03:44,930 因为潜在回报远远大于风险 78 00:03:46,250 --> 00:03:48,449 弥补了概率方面的劣势 79 00:03:50,659 --> 00:03:52,360 如果你没有在这里入场 80 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:53,479 不用担心 81 00:03:53,479 --> 00:03:55,219 还有很多其他入场点 82 00:03:55,219 --> 00:03:56,979 连续四根K线下跌 83 00:03:56,979 --> 00:03:58,860 其中三根阴线收在最低 84 00:03:58,860 --> 00:04:01,379 你可以在那个运线第四根阴线的低点下 85 00:04:01,379 --> 00:04:02,620 尝试反转上涨 86 00:04:02,620 --> 00:04:04,789 但左边是六根K线下跌 87 00:04:04,789 --> 00:04:06,490 其中五根是好的阴线 88 00:04:06,490 --> 00:04:08,129 反转大概率会失败 89 00:04:08,129 --> 00:04:10,780 在那个阴线的最高点挂限价卖单 90 00:04:10,780 --> 00:04:13,159 订单会在非常窄的下降通道 91 00:04:13,159 --> 00:04:15,300 有一个阳线反弹 92 00:04:15,819 --> 00:04:18,639 可以在那根K线的低点下方卖出反弹 93 00:04:18,639 --> 00:04:19,959 第二做空点 94 00:04:19,959 --> 00:04:21,939 这里和这里组成了双顶 95 00:04:21,939 --> 00:04:24,699 或者这个和这个也是双顶 96 00:04:25,110 --> 00:04:27,310 在那根K线的低点下方迈出 97 00:04:27,310 --> 00:04:29,470 这里和这里也是一个双顶 98 00:04:29,470 --> 00:04:32,449 在这根K线的低点下方卖出又一个双顶 99 00:04:32,449 --> 00:04:35,170 或者说是三推楔形雄强势上涨 100 00:04:35,170 --> 00:04:36,029 第二推 101 00:04:36,029 --> 00:04:37,449 第三推 102 00:04:37,449 --> 00:04:39,649 在那根K线的低点下方卖出 103 00:04:39,649 --> 00:04:41,310 意外的强势空头突破 104 00:04:41,310 --> 00:04:44,680 连续四根阴线可以开始卖K线的收盘 105 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:49,800 在这里或这里或这里反转是最早的入场 106 00:04:50,060 --> 00:04:51,600 因为你买在底部 107 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:52,379 卖在顶部 108 00:04:53,740 --> 00:04:55,860 但胜率并不高 109 00:05:00,579 --> 00:05:02,500 高点更高的高点 110 00:05:03,620 --> 00:05:04,600 更高的低点 111 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:06,379 更高的低点 112 00:05:07,060 --> 00:05:08,759 这就是上涨趋势 113 00:05:08,759 --> 00:05:11,600 每当有趋势有回调的时候 114 00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:14,220 你总是可以构建一个通道 115 00:05:19,660 --> 00:05:21,920 上涨趋势不断上涨 116 00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:23,720 高点和低点都在抬高 117 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:26,180 你总是可以画出一个通道 118 00:05:27,339 --> 00:05:29,379 想要反转呈下降趋势 119 00:05:29,379 --> 00:05:31,379 价格必须跌破上涨通道 120 00:05:32,379 --> 00:05:34,579 然后形成一系列更低的高点 121 00:05:34,579 --> 00:05:36,310 更低的低点 122 00:05:37,060 --> 00:05:38,240 更低的低点 123 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:40,180 更低的高点 124 00:05:42,199 --> 00:05:45,160 一旦通道上涨趋势线被跌破 125 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:49,480 空头就会在更低的高点做空 126 00:05:50,639 --> 00:05:53,660 例如这里高点降低的大反转 127 00:05:53,660 --> 00:05:54,660 头肩顶 128 00:05:54,660 --> 00:05:56,079 左肩头 129 00:05:56,079 --> 00:05:57,639 右肩 130 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:04,040 在如此强势的抛售之后 131 00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:07,639 第一次反转上涨失败的概率很高 132 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:11,600 一些追涨多头没有及时离场 133 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:12,860 浮亏很大 134 00:06:12,860 --> 00:06:17,038 他们希望有一些反弹可以让他们少亏一些离场 135 00:06:17,038 --> 00:06:19,379 一些空头还没来得及入场 136 00:06:19,379 --> 00:06:21,298 他们迫切的想要做空 137 00:06:21,298 --> 00:06:23,720 他们会在第一次反弹时卖出 138 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:25,800 预期至少会有第二段下跌 139 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:28,279 所以空头突破后高点降低 140 00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:31,439 通常至少会有小的第二段下跌 141 00:06:32,639 --> 00:06:35,120 在这里入场胜率更高 142 00:06:40,899 --> 00:06:42,220 下降趋势 143 00:06:42,220 --> 00:06:44,319 低点和高点都在降低 144 00:06:44,319 --> 00:06:46,779 并且处在一个通道中 145 00:06:50,019 --> 00:06:51,540 随着时间的推移 146 00:06:51,540 --> 00:06:53,980 通道往往变得更宽更平坦 147 00:06:53,980 --> 00:06:55,798 每次救的趋势线被突破 148 00:06:55,798 --> 00:06:57,459 你就可以画一条新的线 149 00:06:57,459 --> 00:06:59,199 从新的高点向下反转 150 00:06:59,199 --> 00:07:00,478 画一条新的趋势线 151 00:07:00,478 --> 00:07:01,579 突破了那条线 152 00:07:01,579 --> 00:07:03,149 突破了这条线 153 00:07:03,149 --> 00:07:05,430 然后从新的高点向下反转 154 00:07:05,430 --> 00:07:06,709 画一条新的趋势线 155 00:07:07,910 --> 00:07:11,189 每次获得额外的信息就可以划线 156 00:07:17,439 --> 00:07:19,199 上涨趋势具有惯性 157 00:07:20,399 --> 00:07:22,839 也就是说市场倾向于继续 158 00:07:22,839 --> 00:07:23,939 换句话说 159 00:07:23,939 --> 00:07:25,899 趋势倾向于继续 160 00:07:26,139 --> 00:07:28,629 大多数的阻力会失败 161 00:07:28,629 --> 00:07:30,750 市场正在无视这些阻力 162 00:07:30,750 --> 00:07:32,189 他突破一个阻力 163 00:07:32,189 --> 00:07:34,089 然后看下一个阻力位 164 00:07:34,089 --> 00:07:36,470 它通常也会失败 165 00:07:38,029 --> 00:07:39,610 开始反转上涨 166 00:07:39,610 --> 00:07:41,170 非常强势的突破 167 00:07:41,170 --> 00:07:42,910 超过了前期高点的阻力 168 00:07:42,910 --> 00:07:45,658 只要他在制造更低的高点和更低的低点 169 00:07:45,658 --> 00:07:47,059 下降趋势就依然 170 00:07:47,059 --> 00:07:49,278 如果市场突破了一个重要的高点 171 00:07:49,278 --> 00:07:51,178 那就不再是下降趋势 172 00:07:51,178 --> 00:07:52,639 要么是震荡区间 173 00:07:52,639 --> 00:07:54,819 要么是上涨趋势 174 00:07:56,269 --> 00:07:57,968 这是一个潜在的双顶 175 00:07:57,968 --> 00:07:59,408 可能有阻力 176 00:07:59,408 --> 00:08:01,028 强势的上涨 177 00:08:01,028 --> 00:08:03,470 市场完全无视了那个阻力 178 00:08:03,470 --> 00:08:05,829 强势突破了双顶 179 00:08:08,519 --> 00:08:10,439 强势突破了震荡区间 180 00:08:10,439 --> 00:08:13,600 在震荡区间的上沿有一个双顶 181 00:08:15,959 --> 00:08:19,079 可能正在尝试形成歇一次向下反转 182 00:08:19,079 --> 00:08:20,600 第二次向下反转 183 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:22,199 可以这样画一条线 184 00:08:22,199 --> 00:08:24,649 它会在那条线反转下跌吗 185 00:08:24,649 --> 00:08:28,389 不会潜在通道的上沿阻力失败了 186 00:08:28,389 --> 00:08:30,610 价格强势突破 187 00:08:32,700 --> 00:08:34,419 上方有mm目标位 188 00:08:34,419 --> 00:08:37,740 双底仅限mm目标位 189 00:08:37,740 --> 00:08:40,080 市场无视了MM目标位 190 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:43,139 并强势突破了它潜在的双顶 191 00:08:43,139 --> 00:08:44,940 市场无视了他 192 00:08:47,759 --> 00:08:49,259 正如之前所说 193 00:08:49,259 --> 00:08:52,279 一个强上涨趋势往往会无视阻力 194 00:08:52,279 --> 00:08:55,350 一个强下降趋势往往会无时支撑 195 00:08:55,350 --> 00:08:58,289 所有上涨趋势最终会在阻力位结束 196 00:08:58,289 --> 00:09:01,649 所以重要的是继续寻找阻力 197 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:07,519 楔形顶123 198 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:12,029 另一种画法123 199 00:09:12,389 --> 00:09:15,389 所以这里有一个潜在的楔形顶 200 00:09:16,899 --> 00:09:18,480 这里有一些回调 201 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:20,820 这个低点保持在这个高点的上方 202 00:09:20,820 --> 00:09:23,370 所以上缺口潜在的测量目标位 203 00:09:23,370 --> 00:09:24,690 这是起涨点 204 00:09:24,690 --> 00:09:29,440 这是突破点mm目标位就在这里 205 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:30,659 震荡区间 206 00:09:30,659 --> 00:09:32,779 当市场突破震荡区间时 207 00:09:32,779 --> 00:09:35,320 通常会去到MM区间的下沿 208 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:38,559 区间的上沿MM目标位 209 00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:40,679 所以这里有楔形顶 210 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:42,679 还有两个MM目标位 211 00:09:42,679 --> 00:09:44,159 注多个阻力 212 00:09:44,159 --> 00:09:45,559 有一个不错的做空信号 213 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:47,039 K线 214 00:09:49,379 --> 00:09:52,139 下降趋势也具有惯性 215 00:09:52,519 --> 00:09:55,700 市场倾向于继续做他一直在做的事情 216 00:09:55,700 --> 00:09:57,299 如果它在下跌 217 00:09:57,299 --> 00:09:58,679 它会继续下跌 218 00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:00,679 支撑会失败 219 00:10:01,039 --> 00:10:05,299 多头希望有一个潜在的双底尝试获得支撑 220 00:10:05,299 --> 00:10:06,659 但反转下跌 221 00:10:06,659 --> 00:10:08,200 只要低点还在抬高 222 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:10,389 就仍然是上涨趋势 223 00:10:10,419 --> 00:10:12,480 这里有一个重要的低点 224 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:14,259 强势突破创新高 225 00:10:14,259 --> 00:10:17,240 然而这个重要的低点被跌破了 226 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:20,360 因此上涨趋势很可能已经结束 227 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:22,460 现在市场要么处于震荡区间 228 00:10:22,460 --> 00:10:24,220 要么处于下降趋势 229 00:10:24,220 --> 00:10:29,220 刚开始你并不知道到底是震荡还是下跌 230 00:10:29,970 --> 00:10:33,450 最终下降趋势占了上风 231 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:36,620 这里有支撑 232 00:10:36,620 --> 00:10:38,639 也许是突破后回测 233 00:10:38,639 --> 00:10:42,120 突破点可能和前期的低点组成双底 234 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:44,159 然而市场跌破了它 235 00:10:47,759 --> 00:10:49,159 另一个前期的低点 236 00:10:49,159 --> 00:10:51,139 多头之前在这个价格买入 237 00:10:51,139 --> 00:10:52,759 再次跌下来的时候 238 00:10:52,759 --> 00:10:54,700 跌破了这个低点 239 00:10:54,899 --> 00:10:56,480 在下方有人买入 240 00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:58,740 但上涨的幅度不够大 241 00:10:58,740 --> 00:11:01,259 无法突破前期重要的高点 242 00:11:01,259 --> 00:11:04,269 所以市场仍然处于下降趋势 243 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:09,360 在支撑位的楔形底略低于突破点 244 00:11:10,639 --> 00:11:12,460 理论上会有支撑 245 00:11:12,460 --> 00:11:15,740 三推楔形牛市上涨趋势回调 246 00:11:15,740 --> 00:11:19,558 三次推动123测试 247 00:11:19,558 --> 00:11:22,619 前期高点也大约是50%回调 248 00:11:22,619 --> 00:11:24,289 所以这里有支撑 249 00:11:24,289 --> 00:11:26,129 多头尝试反转上涨 250 00:11:27,570 --> 00:11:31,210 然而市场不断的跌破每个支撑位 251 00:11:32,100 --> 00:11:33,100 楔形底 252 00:11:33,100 --> 00:11:36,019 123也是双底 253 00:11:36,019 --> 00:11:38,009 是潜在的支撑 254 00:11:38,409 --> 00:11:39,850 城市反转上涨 255 00:11:41,169 --> 00:11:43,409 市场继续跌破支撑 256 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:46,200 下降趋势 257 00:11:47,899 --> 00:11:49,840 这个低点是潜在的支撑 258 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:51,639 急速上涨回调 259 00:11:51,639 --> 00:11:52,559 第二推 260 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:53,799 第三推 261 00:11:53,799 --> 00:11:57,039 这是一个急速变通道的上急速趋势回调 262 00:11:57,039 --> 00:11:59,519 通常通道的起点会有支撑 263 00:11:59,519 --> 00:12:01,879 然而它也被跌破了 264 00:12:02,710 --> 00:12:06,509 下降趋势中大多数支撑会失败 265 00:12:07,460 --> 00:12:11,620 然而所有下降趋势最终在支撑位结束 266 00:12:11,620 --> 00:12:15,259 所以继续寻找支撑很重要 267 00:12:16,740 --> 00:12:19,899 然后观察市场在支撑位的表现 268 00:12:22,460 --> 00:12:23,700 又一个楔形底 269 00:12:23,700 --> 00:12:26,779 123这个楔形底失败 270 00:12:26,779 --> 00:12:29,250 123这个楔形 271 00:12:29,250 --> 00:12:32,339 现在空头尝试突破这个宽下降通道 272 00:12:32,339 --> 00:12:35,139 你可以说他是三推四推 273 00:12:35,139 --> 00:12:37,958 五推三推或更多推 274 00:12:37,958 --> 00:12:40,778 这是一个强势突破楔形底 275 00:12:41,159 --> 00:12:43,720 另外看一下这个突破的规模 276 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:44,840 这是下降趋势 277 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:47,080 后期最大的大阴线 278 00:12:47,210 --> 00:12:49,929 下降趋势已经持续了大约50根K线 279 00:12:49,929 --> 00:12:52,970 当你看到下降趋势持续20多根K线后 280 00:12:52,970 --> 00:12:55,129 再出现最大的大阴线 281 00:12:55,129 --> 00:12:57,549 它更有可能是洁净型缺口 282 00:12:57,549 --> 00:12:59,980 而不是一个测量型缺口 283 00:12:59,980 --> 00:13:02,139 趋势更有可能即将衰竭 284 00:13:02,139 --> 00:13:06,009 而不是一个新的更强势的下跌的开始 285 00:13:06,330 --> 00:13:08,629 尝试加速跌破下降宽通道 286 00:13:08,629 --> 00:13:11,929 有75%的概率会在五根K线之内反转 287 00:13:11,929 --> 00:13:13,029 上涨下降趋势 288 00:13:13,029 --> 00:13:15,230 后期最大的空头突破 289 00:13:15,230 --> 00:13:18,639 大概率市场会反转嗯 290 00:13:20,679 --> 00:13:22,480 这里有一个潜在的双底 291 00:13:23,879 --> 00:13:28,600 市场跌破了那个双底潜在的mm目标位 292 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:32,340 同时也正好在前期重要的低点上方 293 00:13:32,919 --> 00:13:34,940 那是整个上涨趋势的起点 294 00:13:34,940 --> 00:13:38,120 多头会尝试在那个低点附近制造双底 295 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:40,100 如果多头有足够的力量 296 00:13:40,100 --> 00:13:42,960 他们就能够让双底保持在前期的低点上 297 00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:44,700 制造出一个低点抬高的双底 298 00:13:44,700 --> 00:13:46,240 他们做到了 299 00:13:54,539 --> 00:13:57,000 上涨趋势尝试反转 300 00:13:57,000 --> 00:13:58,259 但趋势继续 301 00:13:58,259 --> 00:14:00,620 上涨趋势尝试反转 302 00:14:00,620 --> 00:14:01,960 但趋势继续 303 00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:04,849 当上涨趋势中有反转的尝试 304 00:14:04,849 --> 00:14:06,408 然后趋势恢复 305 00:14:06,408 --> 00:14:10,668 那次反转尝试就是一个牛骑反转尝试 306 00:14:10,668 --> 00:14:11,609 但趋势继续 307 00:14:11,609 --> 00:14:12,928 牛骑 308 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:21,740 上涨趋势结束需要几个条件 309 00:14:21,740 --> 00:14:24,080 首先需要跌破通道的下沿 310 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:26,519 即跌破上涨趋势线 311 00:14:29,580 --> 00:14:33,059 然后需要跌破前期的某个重要的低点 312 00:14:33,639 --> 00:14:37,700 比如这个低点之后强势上涨创新高 313 00:14:37,700 --> 00:14:39,500 所以它是一个重要的低点 314 00:14:39,500 --> 00:14:41,360 然而它被跌破了 315 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:47,259 一旦重要的低点被跌破 316 00:14:47,259 --> 00:14:49,960 上涨趋势就不再有效 317 00:14:51,169 --> 00:14:53,169 市场要么处于震荡区间 318 00:14:53,169 --> 00:14:55,490 要么处于下降趋势 319 00:14:58,700 --> 00:15:00,000 我刚才讲到 320 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:01,659 在强上涨趋势中 321 00:15:01,659 --> 00:15:03,610 大多数阻力失败 322 00:15:03,610 --> 00:15:05,929 80%的阻力会失败 323 00:15:05,929 --> 00:15:07,049 市场继续上涨 324 00:15:07,049 --> 00:15:09,470 在下降趋势中大多数支撑 325 00:15:09,470 --> 00:15:11,929 这就是我的80%法则 326 00:15:14,179 --> 00:15:15,539 在强趋势中 327 00:15:15,539 --> 00:15:18,820 80%的反转尝试会失败 328 00:15:21,700 --> 00:15:25,139 有些交易者他们对反转交易欲罢不能 329 00:15:25,139 --> 00:15:27,019 他们总是在寻找反转的机会 330 00:15:27,019 --> 00:15:28,000 反转下跌 331 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:28,720 他们做空 332 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:29,679 反转下跌 333 00:15:29,679 --> 00:15:30,620 他们做空 334 00:15:30,620 --> 00:15:33,100 如果你在强上涨趋势中做空 335 00:15:33,100 --> 00:15:34,700 如果你非常谨慎 336 00:15:34,700 --> 00:15:38,100 有时候你可以赚一些剥头皮的小钱 337 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:44,339 空头突破跌破了重要的低点 338 00:15:44,538 --> 00:15:46,859 一些多头会在反转上涨时买入 339 00:15:46,859 --> 00:15:48,058 在反转上涨时买入 340 00:15:48,058 --> 00:15:49,438 跌破前期低点 341 00:15:49,438 --> 00:15:51,149 跌破前期低点 342 00:15:51,149 --> 00:15:52,909 他们在反转上涨时吗 343 00:15:52,909 --> 00:15:55,309 如果你在下降趋势中做多 344 00:15:55,629 --> 00:15:57,629 你只能做包头皮交易 345 00:15:57,629 --> 00:16:01,350 因为强趋势中的大多数反转都会失败 346 00:16:07,299 --> 00:16:09,759 例如在这里做空的空投 347 00:16:09,759 --> 00:16:11,919 如果他赚钱之后没有离场 348 00:16:11,919 --> 00:16:14,019 这里就涨回来了 349 00:16:14,460 --> 00:16:16,019 稍微又跌了一些 350 00:16:16,019 --> 00:16:17,320 再次涨回来 351 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:19,240 变成高粱牛旗 352 00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:21,580 当市场处于上涨趋势 353 00:16:21,580 --> 00:16:24,159 尤其是一个相当强势的上涨趋势 354 00:16:24,159 --> 00:16:26,960 出现高二买点还有非常好的做多信号 355 00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:29,879 K空投会在他的上方离场 356 00:16:29,879 --> 00:16:31,039 多头入场 357 00:16:31,039 --> 00:16:33,240 预期趋势会恢复 358 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:37,500 这是高三买点 359 00:16:37,500 --> 00:16:39,320 在这里做空的空投 360 00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:41,320 如果他们没有及时包头皮 361 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:44,629 他们会在这个高二或这个高三的上方离场 362 00:16:45,070 --> 00:16:46,110 这是一个惊喜 363 00:16:46,110 --> 00:16:48,840 大阴线至少会有小的第二段下跌 364 00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:49,940 空头得到了 365 00:16:49,940 --> 00:16:52,620 即使这里的高二买点被触发了一些 366 00:16:52,620 --> 00:16:54,490 空头仍然会继续持有 367 00:16:54,490 --> 00:16:56,049 因为这个阴线很大 368 00:16:56,049 --> 00:16:58,230 大概率还会至少再下跌一些 369 00:16:58,230 --> 00:17:02,058 然而现在有一个楔形牛骑三次向下推 370 00:17:02,058 --> 00:17:06,179 二三空投会在这个高点上方离场 371 00:17:09,779 --> 00:17:13,460 下降趋势低一做空入场点 372 00:17:13,940 --> 00:17:15,759 一些多头在这里买入 373 00:17:15,759 --> 00:17:16,579 想做包头 374 00:17:16,579 --> 00:17:19,500 因为左边的这个低点可能有支撑 375 00:17:21,279 --> 00:17:24,140 他们想要在50%反弹的地方止盈 376 00:17:24,140 --> 00:17:25,500 赚快钱离场 377 00:17:25,500 --> 00:17:28,839 然而如果他们没有及时止盈 378 00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:30,839 现在出现了D2做空点 379 00:17:30,839 --> 00:17:32,440 D1在这根K线下方 380 00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:35,099 D2在这根K线下方 381 00:17:35,099 --> 00:17:37,759 并且信号K线是阴线 382 00:17:38,269 --> 00:17:39,569 多头会离场 383 00:17:39,569 --> 00:17:42,349 因为继续下跌的概率很高 384 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:46,859 两次向上推动阳线 385 00:17:46,859 --> 00:17:50,789 阴线阳线现在出现了空头的AI结构 386 00:17:50,789 --> 00:17:52,269 连续两根阴线的运行 387 00:17:52,269 --> 00:17:53,670 交易者会相当不错的 388 00:17:53,670 --> 00:17:56,589 阴线点下方或这根阴线的低点下方卖出 389 00:17:56,589 --> 00:17:57,619 多头会离场 390 00:17:57,619 --> 00:18:00,480 因为他们知道下跌的概率很高 391 00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:02,480 空投会出于同样的原因 392 00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:05,440 卖出下降趋势中的高点降低了 393 00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:07,160 第二做空信号 394 00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:07,920 K线很好 395 00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:10,049 非常好的做空机会 396 00:18:10,619 --> 00:18:12,660 楔形底强势反转 397 00:18:12,660 --> 00:18:17,059 上涨三次向上推动123 398 00:18:17,849 --> 00:18:21,119 第二做空也许会有第三次向上反转 399 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:22,220 上涨很强势 400 00:18:22,220 --> 00:18:23,940 第二段上涨也很强 401 00:18:23,940 --> 00:18:25,960 一些多头愿意继续持有 402 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:28,920 以备这个楔形底反转会一直上涨 403 00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:30,140 测试前期的高原 404 00:18:30,140 --> 00:18:32,720 然而糕点还没有抬高 405 00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:34,299 就出现了楔形顶 406 00:18:34,299 --> 00:18:37,279 三次向上推动123 407 00:18:37,279 --> 00:18:39,119 所以这是三推楔形雄奇 408 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:41,170 而且有相当不错的阴线 409 00:18:41,170 --> 00:18:42,789 在这里买入的多头 410 00:18:42,789 --> 00:18:44,690 如果他们还持有多头仓位 411 00:18:44,690 --> 00:18:46,859 他们会在楔形雄奇的下方离场 412 00:18:46,859 --> 00:18:49,380 没有入场的空头也会在这里开仓做空 413 00:18:49,380 --> 00:18:49,740 压住 414 00:18:49,740 --> 00:18:52,319 这是下降趋势中降低的高点 415 00:18:52,319 --> 00:18:53,319 压住多头 416 00:18:53,319 --> 00:18:54,799 反转的尝试会失败 417 00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:57,299 三推楔形雄奇 418 00:18:57,299 --> 00:18:58,759 有漂亮的做空信号 419 00:18:58,759 --> 00:19:00,079 K线 420 00:19:04,380 --> 00:19:07,500 很多交易者喜欢回报远大于风险的交易 421 00:19:07,500 --> 00:19:10,059 至少是风险的两倍大 422 00:19:13,940 --> 00:19:17,140 每当一笔交易的盈亏比非常好 423 00:19:18,269 --> 00:19:19,910 比如两倍的盈亏比 424 00:19:19,910 --> 00:19:22,589 那么胜率就会相对较低 425 00:19:24,579 --> 00:19:28,299 因为必须要给做对收盘的机构一个理由 426 00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:30,920 如果你的盈亏比很好 427 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:33,000 胜率就会较低 428 00:19:33,980 --> 00:19:37,220 不然就没有机构愿意做对手盘 429 00:19:38,410 --> 00:19:40,309 既然对手的盈亏比不好 430 00:19:40,309 --> 00:19:43,289 那么他们的胜率就会相对高 431 00:19:43,740 --> 00:19:45,940 反转通常是低胜率的交易 432 00:19:45,940 --> 00:19:47,380 但止损比较小 433 00:19:47,380 --> 00:19:49,500 所以风险小 434 00:19:49,940 --> 00:19:52,160 你可能入场在趋势的起点 435 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:54,539 因此回报很大 436 00:19:55,259 --> 00:19:57,619 当你看到一个很好的反转机会时 437 00:19:57,619 --> 00:20:00,059 有非常好的盈亏比 438 00:20:00,869 --> 00:20:02,529 回报远大于风险 439 00:20:02,529 --> 00:20:05,029 但是胜率只有大约40% 440 00:20:06,150 --> 00:20:09,339 然而回报远大于风险 441 00:20:09,579 --> 00:20:11,420 弥补了概率方面的劣势 442 00:20:11,420 --> 00:20:14,500 所以仍然是不错的交易机会 443 00:20:16,599 --> 00:20:19,059 例如在这里做空的空头 444 00:20:19,059 --> 00:20:20,059 风险小 445 00:20:20,059 --> 00:20:21,699 回报大 446 00:20:21,939 --> 00:20:23,878 但胜率并没有那么高 447 00:20:23,878 --> 00:20:25,459 更有可能会横盘 448 00:20:25,459 --> 00:20:26,818 然而大幅下跌了 449 00:20:26,818 --> 00:20:29,739 发展成了一笔非常好的交易 450 00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:37,519 一些空头会在这里止盈 451 00:20:37,519 --> 00:20:38,519 楔形底 452 00:20:38,519 --> 00:20:41,279 并且低点在起涨点上方 453 00:20:42,039 --> 00:20:43,940 其他人会在这里止盈 454 00:20:43,940 --> 00:20:45,960 因为这是一个巨大的抛售高潮 455 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:47,200 无论在哪里离场 456 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:49,480 空投在这里或这里的利润 457 00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:52,680 远超他们初始风险的很多倍 458 00:20:59,700 --> 00:21:01,779 一些交易者也想做反转 459 00:21:01,779 --> 00:21:04,150 但他们想要更高的概率 460 00:21:04,150 --> 00:21:06,750 所以他们等到强势突破出现后 461 00:21:06,750 --> 00:21:08,349 再进入新的趋势 462 00:21:08,349 --> 00:21:11,799 此时赚钱的概率来到了60% 463 00:21:11,799 --> 00:21:13,539 一般有时甚至更高 464 00:21:13,539 --> 00:21:15,059 如果突破足够强 465 00:21:15,059 --> 00:21:17,039 且背景良好 466 00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:19,720 例如这是一笔低风险 467 00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:21,759 低概率的交易 468 00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:26,759 止损放在做空信号K线的高点上方 469 00:21:27,569 --> 00:21:31,809 然而如果你在看到两根大阴线之后再入场做空 470 00:21:31,809 --> 00:21:34,089 或者在六根K线的下降微通道 471 00:21:34,089 --> 00:21:36,049 或者在这里开仓 472 00:21:36,390 --> 00:21:38,029 你赚钱的胜率就更高 473 00:21:38,029 --> 00:21:40,509 但你的止损仍然在这里 474 00:21:41,039 --> 00:21:42,299 风险更大 475 00:21:42,299 --> 00:21:45,720 而且剩余的利润空间变得更小 476 00:21:46,460 --> 00:21:47,839 所以回报更小 477 00:21:47,839 --> 00:21:49,039 风险更大 478 00:21:49,039 --> 00:21:50,619 优点是胜率更高 479 00:21:52,059 --> 00:21:53,619 不管你在什么时候入场 480 00:21:53,619 --> 00:21:55,609 如果胜率更高了 481 00:21:56,619 --> 00:21:58,660 那么代价就是盈亏比会变差 482 00:22:00,339 --> 00:22:02,660 因为你占了概率的优势 483 00:22:03,950 --> 00:22:07,349 做对收盘的机构就占了盈亏比的优势 484 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:11,440 换句话说你的止损会更远 485 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:13,740 如果你想拥有高胜率的入场 486 00:22:13,740 --> 00:22:16,559 通常情况下你的止损也会更是 487 00:22:16,559 --> 00:22:19,240 选择低胜率早入场 488 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:23,960 还是高胜率晚入场都可以 489 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,619 两种做法的数学期望都是正的 490 00:22:26,619 --> 00:22:28,839 所以都是好的交易 491 00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:34,980 要记住 492 00:22:34,980 --> 00:22:36,460 没有完美的交易 493 00:22:36,460 --> 00:22:38,019 即使是最好的交易 494 00:22:38,019 --> 00:22:40,380 也至少有一个不好的变量 495 00:22:40,380 --> 00:22:42,839 风险回报概率 496 00:22:42,839 --> 00:22:45,140 你不可能同时占到所有的便宜 497 00:22:45,140 --> 00:22:46,359 不存在低风险 498 00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:47,299 高回报 499 00:22:47,299 --> 00:22:49,539 高胜率的完美交易 500 00:22:52,460 --> 00:22:57,069 它不存在的原因是一旦出现完美的交易机会 501 00:22:57,470 --> 00:23:00,200 那么每个人都会去做这笔交易 502 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:01,980 没有人愿意站在对面 503 00:23:01,980 --> 00:23:03,819 那么交易就无法成交 504 00:23:03,819 --> 00:23:07,920 注或者说价格会瞬间大幅移动 505 00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:12,180 接下来我想稍微讲一下茶杯带柄反转 506 00:23:12,180 --> 00:23:16,710 有时会被称为茶杯反转后的回调 507 00:23:16,710 --> 00:23:19,559 有时会被称为baby 508 00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:29,079 不管反转如何强势 509 00:23:29,079 --> 00:23:30,319 最终都会回调 510 00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:34,599 这就制造了一个茶杯带柄的结构 511 00:23:38,940 --> 00:23:40,440 市场大幅抛售 512 00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:42,480 然后强势反转上涨 513 00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:43,740 然后回调 514 00:23:43,740 --> 00:23:46,339 回测了震荡区间的上沿 515 00:23:48,638 --> 00:23:51,858 这就是交易者有时会提到的茶杯带柄 516 00:23:51,858 --> 00:23:53,459 大的是茶杯 517 00:23:53,459 --> 00:23:57,779 回调是杯柄反转是杯反转后的回调是饼 518 00:24:01,259 --> 00:24:03,000 它看起来像一个茶杯 519 00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,380 大的茶杯和小的饼 520 00:24:11,220 --> 00:24:14,240 交易者要么寻找最初反转上涨的机会 521 00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:17,420 或者在突破后的回调BB买入 522 00:24:17,700 --> 00:24:19,700 他们会在阳线上方买入 523 00:24:19,700 --> 00:24:22,200 期待着是上涨的趋势的开始 524 00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:26,859 它通常也是低点抬高的大反转下降趋势 525 00:24:26,859 --> 00:24:29,940 多头突破更高的低点 526 00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:44,920 从高点反转下跌时也有反过来的 527 00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,680 做空版本的茶杯带柄 528 00:24:49,109 --> 00:24:49,970 上涨 529 00:24:49,970 --> 00:24:51,890 然后强势的反转下跌 530 00:24:51,890 --> 00:24:53,549 然后有一些反弹 531 00:24:53,549 --> 00:24:56,878 因此这是一个茶杯带柄的结构 532 00:24:56,878 --> 00:25:00,838 你可以直接说他是反转或者高点降低的大反转 533 00:25:00,838 --> 00:25:02,439 肩顶左肩头 534 00:25:02,439 --> 00:25:05,079 右肩怎么叫都没关系 535 00:25:05,079 --> 00:25:07,299 市场正在强势反转下跌 536 00:25:07,299 --> 00:25:09,579 然后有一些反弹 537 00:25:13,619 --> 00:25:17,299 交易者会在反弹的下方用突破卖单开仓做空 538 00:25:17,299 --> 00:25:17,900 空头 539 00:25:17,900 --> 00:25:19,559 把这看作是下降趋势 540 00:25:19,559 --> 00:25:22,119 而这个反弹是熊奇 541 00:25:27,259 --> 00:25:30,940 所有结构都是分型的柱分型数学 542 00:25:30,940 --> 00:25:31,779 也就是说 543 00:25:31,779 --> 00:25:35,859 这些结构存在于更大和更小的时间周期之中 544 00:25:37,079 --> 00:25:40,059 虽然我通常不会用茶杯带饼这个词 545 00:25:40,059 --> 00:25:42,400 但这里有一个我要讲的点 546 00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:44,619 我在左边放了一个上涨趋势 547 00:25:44,619 --> 00:25:46,680 右边放了一个下降趋势 548 00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:48,539 左边是上涨趋势 549 00:25:48,539 --> 00:25:50,680 这里有一些回调 550 00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:52,700 这是一个小的下降趋势 551 00:25:52,700 --> 00:25:56,019 回调意味着市场更有可能恢复上涨 552 00:25:56,019 --> 00:25:58,159 而不是反转下跌 553 00:25:58,439 --> 00:25:59,719 在这一时刻 554 00:25:59,719 --> 00:26:02,558 下降趋势开始反转上涨 555 00:26:02,558 --> 00:26:03,979 实际上发生的事 556 00:26:03,979 --> 00:26:06,569 大上涨趋势正在恢复 557 00:26:06,569 --> 00:26:08,930 牛骑就是指小的下降趋势 558 00:26:08,930 --> 00:26:11,609 而这里的牛骑正在向上突破 559 00:26:11,609 --> 00:26:14,490 空头希望牛骑被跌破 560 00:26:15,460 --> 00:26:18,799 他们希望这个回调会发展成下降趋势 561 00:26:18,799 --> 00:26:20,529 但更有可能的是 562 00:26:20,529 --> 00:26:22,029 这只是一次回调 563 00:26:22,029 --> 00:26:25,898 也就是说上涨趋势会恢复下降通道 564 00:26:25,898 --> 00:26:27,858 牛起多头突破 565 00:26:27,858 --> 00:26:30,339 这是多头突破之后的回调 566 00:26:30,339 --> 00:26:32,380 它更有可能是一个回调 567 00:26:32,380 --> 00:26:34,660 而不是反转成下降趋势 568 00:26:34,660 --> 00:26:38,900 这意味着回调之后大概率会继续向上突破 569 00:26:42,460 --> 00:26:45,500 尤其小下降趋势 570 00:26:47,420 --> 00:26:48,920 多头突破牛旗 571 00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:51,960 也就是说小下降趋势被反转 572 00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:55,619 下降趋势现在反转上涨 573 00:26:59,099 --> 00:27:01,059 这是多头突破后的回调 574 00:27:01,059 --> 00:27:03,420 是一个更小的牛骑 575 00:27:04,779 --> 00:27:07,000 把它看作一个小的上涨趋势 576 00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:08,519 它就是小的回调 577 00:27:08,519 --> 00:27:10,519 一个大概率会继续上涨 578 00:27:10,519 --> 00:27:12,579 外面是一个大的上涨趋势 579 00:27:12,579 --> 00:27:15,880 一个大的牛企大概率会上涨 580 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:20,259 每当你看到反转和回调 581 00:27:20,259 --> 00:27:22,660 那其实就是一个小的茶杯带柄 582 00:27:22,660 --> 00:27:25,349 如果我去更小时间周期看 583 00:27:25,349 --> 00:27:28,190 这将是一个完美的茶杯带柄结构 584 00:27:28,190 --> 00:27:30,049 会有一个下降趋势 585 00:27:30,049 --> 00:27:31,910 然后强势反转上涨 586 00:27:31,910 --> 00:27:34,390 最后上涨趋势恢复 587 00:27:36,859 --> 00:27:38,940 相反的情况在这里也是如此 588 00:27:38,940 --> 00:27:41,799 下降趋势现在有一些反弹 589 00:27:42,079 --> 00:27:45,079 然而它大概率不足以导致反转 590 00:27:45,079 --> 00:27:47,039 呈上涨趋势 591 00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:52,740 因此更有可能的是会出现空头突破 592 00:27:52,740 --> 00:27:54,440 然后下降趋势恢复 593 00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:56,809 下降趋势雄奇 594 00:27:57,170 --> 00:27:58,910 大概率空头突破 595 00:27:58,910 --> 00:28:01,250 然后下降趋势恢复 596 00:28:03,859 --> 00:28:06,059 大阴线是强势的空头突破 597 00:28:07,180 --> 00:28:09,579 尝试恢复下降趋势 598 00:28:13,559 --> 00:28:16,480 这是空头突破之后的小反弹 599 00:28:17,130 --> 00:28:19,410 此时更有可能发生什么事 600 00:28:19,410 --> 00:28:21,170 会反转成为上涨趋势吗 601 00:28:22,250 --> 00:28:26,289 还是说它只是空头突破之后的小反弹 602 00:28:26,970 --> 00:28:29,470 更有可能只是突破之后的反弹 603 00:28:29,470 --> 00:28:31,929 这是一个小下降趋势 604 00:28:32,249 --> 00:28:35,288 反弹下降趋势很可能会恢复 605 00:28:35,288 --> 00:28:37,128 外面是更大的下降趋势 606 00:28:37,128 --> 00:28:37,989 更大的反弹 607 00:28:37,989 --> 00:28:41,088 熊奇下降趋势很可能会恢复 608 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:46,759 上涨趋势空头反转 609 00:28:47,759 --> 00:28:50,500 空头反转之后有一些反弹 610 00:28:50,740 --> 00:28:52,279 每当你看到反转 611 00:28:52,279 --> 00:28:53,720 那就是一个茶杯 612 00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:55,940 如果有回调反弹 613 00:28:55,940 --> 00:28:57,319 那就是杯此 614 00:28:57,319 --> 00:28:58,640 这是一个小的茶杯 615 00:28:58,640 --> 00:28:59,319 带柄结构 616 00:28:59,319 --> 00:29:00,640 在下降趋势中 617 00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:03,359 这样的结构随处可见 618 00:29:04,549 --> 00:29:06,910 同样这个上涨趋势中的 619 00:29:06,910 --> 00:29:09,029 也许没有意识到他是茶位带病 620 00:29:09,029 --> 00:29:11,230 但他确实是反转上涨 621 00:29:11,230 --> 00:29:14,970 然后回调反转下跌 622 00:29:14,970 --> 00:29:18,670 然后反弹一个小的茶杯带柄 623 00:29:21,460 --> 00:29:24,000 在一个较小时间周期的K线图上 624 00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:27,099 这个茶杯带柄的结构会更加清晰 625 00:29:27,460 --> 00:29:30,019 例如如果这是一个小时图 626 00:29:30,019 --> 00:29:31,259 即60分钟图 627 00:29:31,259 --> 00:29:32,769 你去看他的5分钟图 628 00:29:32,769 --> 00:29:34,670 这个上涨会持续两小时 629 00:29:34,670 --> 00:29:36,269 然后下跌一小时 630 00:29:36,269 --> 00:29:38,190 所以会有很多K线上涨 631 00:29:38,190 --> 00:29:39,150 很多K线下 632 00:29:39,150 --> 00:29:41,990 就可以看到一个典型的茶杯带柄的结构 633 00:29:41,990 --> 00:29:44,420 如果这是日K线 634 00:29:44,579 --> 00:29:47,200 那么如果你去看他的60分钟图 635 00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:50,740 就可以看到一个典型的茶杯带柄结构 636 00:29:55,220 --> 00:29:58,430 反转是进入一个趋势的最早时机 637 00:29:58,829 --> 00:30:00,789 如果你在反转时入场 638 00:30:00,789 --> 00:30:02,130 你的胜率较低 639 00:30:02,130 --> 00:30:04,920 但好处是风险也比较小 640 00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:09,680 因此好的盈亏比弥补了概率方面的劣势 641 00:30:12,059 --> 00:30:14,640 我的80%法则趋势中 642 00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:17,700 80%反转的尝试都会失败 643 00:30:18,519 --> 00:30:20,539 同样震荡区间中 644 00:30:20,539 --> 00:30:23,640 80%突破的尝试都会失败 645 00:30:24,569 --> 00:30:27,609 这节课的最后我讲到了茶杯带柄 646 00:30:27,609 --> 00:30:30,589 你有时候会听到别人说这个词 647 00:30:30,589 --> 00:30:34,549 它指的就是有一个反转茶杯 648 00:30:35,459 --> 00:30:37,298 反转之后有一些回调 649 00:30:37,298 --> 00:30:39,180 Baby 650 00:30:43,759 --> 00:30:45,119 我是阿尔布鲁克斯 651 00:30:45,119 --> 00:30:47,559 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程反转的 652 00:30:47,559 --> 00:30:50,000 第二节课就先讲到这里
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