【Adam Khoo】SpaceX IPO 值得买吗？这里有更香的替代方案！

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SpaceX的IPO或首次公开募股计划定于今年中旬进行

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这意味着该公司首次向公众出售其股份

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这是一个评估点

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七

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五到两万亿美元

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这是有史以来规模最大的IPO

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这对投资者来说是否值得投资

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让我们在本视频中揭晓答案

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Ax公司由埃隆·马斯克于22年前创立

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该公司已保持私有状态24年

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因此在今年中旬

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他们将进行首次公开募股

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这意味着他们将出售公司部分股权

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向公众发行部分股份

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所以这就是IPO

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现在他们将公司估值定在1.7

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五到两万亿美元之间

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如果我们不清楚的话，一万亿等于一千亿

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在估值范围的高端

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他们将整个业务估值为两万亿

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他们不会出售所有股份给公众

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他们计划出售4.2

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8%的股份给公众

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如果他们出售4.8%的股份

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这意味着将筹集750亿美元

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并非所有750亿美元都会归公司所有

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因为在4.8%的股份中

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我们可以看到股份分配的构成

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66%的股份称为新股或新发行股

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这意味着公司将发行新股，所得资金

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将进入公司账户

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这500亿美元将归公司所有

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但3.3%的股份称为转让股

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转让股指由内部人士持有的股份

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由员工持有

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换句话说

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当你购买这些股份时

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资金不会进入公司账户

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资金将流向退出业务的内部人士和股东

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所以二

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50亿美元将流向退出的内部人士和管理层

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而500亿美元将归公司自身所有

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在所有股份中，约22.5%

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其中250亿美元将保留给零售投资者而非机构投资者

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这比大多数大型IPO高出三倍

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因为大多数大型IPO仅向零售投资者提供10%

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但SpaceX将提供三倍于此的份额

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这是否因为

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埃隆

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马斯克及管理层热爱零售投资者

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他们想给你一个拥有公司的机会

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或者是因为他们找不到足够的机构投资者购买

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所以他们想类似地

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把股份转嫁给零售投资者

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对于不太专业的投资者

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嗯

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值得考虑的事情

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所以

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SpaceX的现有股东是谁

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目前42%的股份由埃隆·马斯克本人持有

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埃隆·马斯克本人

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10.4%由创始人基金持有

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10.2%由富达公司持有

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7.4%由谷歌或字母表公司持有

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其余30%由其他股东持有

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其中包括员工和其他私人投资者

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顺便说一句

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趣味知识

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我曾被邀请通过专项协议从现有员工处购买股份

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估值为8.5亿美元

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但我没有参与这笔交易

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因为我觉得风险与回报并不足够吸引人

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此外如果我购买IPO前的股份

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将面临锁定期限制

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在前6到9个月内无法出售股份

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我感到非常不确定

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一旦公司上市后会发生什么

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初期股价可能上涨

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但也可能大幅下跌

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即使我被报价的8.5亿美元估值

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记住当你购买企业股份或股票时

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无论是IPO还是已上市多年的公司

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你不是在买彩票

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你是在购买企业的一部分

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你需要问自己两个问题

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第一个问题是这是否是好生意

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第二个问题是价格是否合理

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所以第一个问题SpaceX

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是否是好生意

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经过大量研究后

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我认为是的

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它

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事实上我认为这是非凡的生意

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拥有广阔的经济护城河

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意味着具备可持续的竞争优势

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远超竞争对手

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SpaceX做得好的地方是什么

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他们有四大业务

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最盈利的业务是星链

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你肯定听说过星链

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这是一项全球高速卫星互联网业务

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目前已有超过百万用户

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这是一项高毛利的持续性收入业务

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第二项业务是发射服务

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这也是非常盈利的

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接下来是星盾

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第三项业务专注于为国防和国家安全提供安全卫星网络

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具备军事级强大能力

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最后是星舰

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提供完全可重复使用

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大型载荷火箭系统

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具备深空任务和巨大载荷潜力

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大家都知道在太空建设数据中心的话题很多

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嗯

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需要这些星舰将其送入太空

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好的

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嗯

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在这四项业务中

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截至去年年底，总营收达15-160亿美元

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2025年

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他们是否盈利

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是的

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他们是盈利的

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并非基于一次性收益

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但整体表现良好

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如果BITA指税前利润

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扣除折旧与摊销前

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利润达80亿美元

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截至去年年底

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五年后即2030年

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预计营收将达500亿美元

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同时EBITDA为250亿美元

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从现在到五年后

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利润预计年复合增长率约25%

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六个百分点

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强劲增长

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目前其营收60%来自星链

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即高速卫星互联网

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在发射服务方面

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他们掌控了所有商业轨道发射80%的市场份额

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在该领域形成垄断地位

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他们的竞争对手有哪些？对于星链

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主要竞争对手是亚马逊

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没错

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亚马逊的LEO项目

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稍后会详细讨论

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主要竞争对手是火箭实验室

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该公司已上市

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股票代码RKL

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为了星盾项目

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主要竞争对手将是洛克希德·马丁和诺斯罗普·格鲁曼

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符号为LMT和更厚的NC符号

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而对于星舰项目

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主要竞争对手将是蓝色起源

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由杰夫·贝佐斯所有

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同时也拥有亚马逊

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现在蓝色起源是一家私营企业

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他们也在发射服务领域与SpaceX竞争

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毫无疑问SpaceX是一家伟大的企业

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但伟大的企业并不意味着就是优质投资

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伟大的企业仅在作为投资时才优秀

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如果你能以合理价格甚至更低买入

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低于其实际价值

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但伟大的企业可能成为糟糕的投资

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若高价买入股票与其他资产无异

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就像房地产

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假设你发现一处优质房地产

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一套拥有绝佳视野的公寓

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绝佳地段

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并获得银行估值

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估值显示该公寓价值一百万美元

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但你情绪激动

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比如名人曾住过这里

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你认为估值一百万

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我愿出三百万购买

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同样

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这可能是一套优质公寓

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但若溢价三倍估值

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风险将非常高

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一旦热度消退

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你就会知道实际价格

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它的真实价值

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可能长期陷入困境

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多年时间

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所以是1.7

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五万亿美元天价

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基于当前营收和利润

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以及未来数年的预测营收和利润

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好吧

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让我们看看一些数据

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这里显示的是2025年数据

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呃

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SpaceX估值为1.7

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五万亿美元

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这是他们向散户出售企业的价格

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当前年营收为160亿美元

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税前利润及折旧摊销前利润为80亿美元

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将总估值除以营收

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得到市销率为0.9倍

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如果你将总价值除以利润

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这就是每股利润

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你得到的是一个价格倍数

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当前市销率为两百一十八倍

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这是基于去年的营收和利润

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但如果我们计算未来的销售价格

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未来的市盈率取决于预测数据

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所以让我们非常乐观

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并采用激进的预测

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最激进的预测是公司计划一年内营收翻倍至三倍

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达到两百亿美元并使利润翻倍至十六亿美元

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让我们采用这个数据

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采用最激进的预测和当前一七五万亿的估值

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五万亿

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这仍然是五倍的市销率

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四倍

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以及一百零九倍的市盈率

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这是否昂贵或便宜呢

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让我们与其他大型公司进行比较

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与字母股和亚马逊对比

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因为亚马逊是星链的直接竞争对手

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而字母股是太空探索技术公司的主要股东

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同时还持有其他竞争对手的股份

223
00:10:14,869 --> 00:10:18,818
亚马逊实际上以接近的估值在交易

224
00:10:18,818 --> 00:10:22,409
太空探索技术公司也应以类似价格出售股份

225
00:10:22,409 --> 00:10:24,190
太空探索技术公司目标估值为一七五万亿

226
00:10:24,190 --> 00:10:25,710
至两万亿

227
00:10:25,710 --> 00:10:32,049
但亚马逊目前在公开市场估值约两万亿

228
00:10:32,049 --> 00:10:33,669
但看看差异

229
00:10:33,669 --> 00:10:36,860
假设你现在有两万亿资金

230
00:10:36,860 --> 00:10:38,600
你会投资太空探索技术公司吗

231
00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:40,279
还是选择亚马逊

232
00:10:40,279 --> 00:10:42,080
想象一下购买整个公司

233
00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:44,639
若以两万亿购买太空探索技术公司

234
00:10:44,639 --> 00:10:47,559
你现在将获得十六亿美元营收

235
00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:49,159
当然未来还会增长

236
00:10:49,159 --> 00:10:53,409
并获得八亿美元税前利润

237
00:10:53,409 --> 00:10:55,190
扣除折旧和摊销后

238
00:10:55,190 --> 00:10:58,690
或者宁愿用两万亿投资亚马逊

239
00:10:58,690 --> 00:11:04,509
目前你已获得七百一十六亿美元营收

240
00:11:04,509 --> 00:11:07,600
这同样会增长，同时利润为一百四十六亿

241
00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:10,509
当前利润为一百四十六亿美元

242
00:11:10,509 --> 00:11:11,029
没错

243
00:11:11,029 --> 00:11:13,210
这个问题值得深思

244
00:11:13,210 --> 00:11:17,839
对于亚马逊，市销率为三倍

245
00:11:17,839 --> 00:11:19,839
对比太空探索技术公司为一零九倍

246
00:11:19,839 --> 00:11:24,169
太空探索技术公司市盈率为两百一十八倍

247
00:11:24,169 --> 00:11:28,470
而亚马逊市盈率为十六倍

248
00:11:28,470 --> 00:11:30,070
若与字母股对比

249
00:11:30,070 --> 00:11:36,039
字母股当前市值略高，达三八万亿

250
00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:36,960
呃

251
00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:38,580
年收入四百亿美元

252
00:11:38,580 --> 00:11:41,899
十五十亿美元的销售市盈率

253
00:11:41,899 --> 00:11:44,919
九点五倍的市销率

254
00:11:44,919 --> 00:11:46,480
二五点五倍

255
00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:47,820
沃伦·巴菲特曾说过

256
00:11:47,820 --> 00:11:50,639
即使你只买一家公司的股票

257
00:11:50,639 --> 00:11:54,230
永远要想象自己买下整个公司

258
00:11:54,230 --> 00:11:56,710
然后理性思考

259
00:11:56,710 --> 00:11:57,509
作为投资者

260
00:11:57,509 --> 00:11:58,470
我问自己

261
00:11:58,470 --> 00:12:01,309
如果我现在有两万亿美元

262
00:12:01,309 --> 00:12:06,509
是现在买入SpaceX获得八亿美元利润

263
00:12:06,509 --> 00:12:07,990
并期待未来更多收益

264
00:12:07,990 --> 00:12:12,909
还是用两万亿美元收购整个亚马逊公司

265
00:12:12,909 --> 00:12:16,750
今天获得一百四十六亿美元利润

266
00:12:16,750 --> 00:12:18,649
当然未来还有更多

267
00:12:18,649 --> 00:12:25,309
或者今天买入字母表公司一半股权

268
00:12:25,309 --> 00:12:26,409
今天获得一百五十亿美元利润

269
00:12:26,409 --> 00:12:28,269
我更倾向于买入字母表和亚马逊

270
00:12:28,269 --> 00:12:28,950
对我来说

271
00:12:28,950 --> 00:12:32,820
手中一只鸟胜过林中两只

272
00:12:32,820 --> 00:12:34,179
话说回来有些人可能说

273
00:12:34,179 --> 00:12:34,720
但亚当

274
00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:36,039
太空经济如何

275
00:12:36,039 --> 00:12:37,539
你没看到它的潜力吗

276
00:12:37,539 --> 00:12:38,480
实际上我看到了

277
00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:44,820
事实上去年太空经济市场规模达四百四十七点九亿美元

278
00:12:44,820 --> 00:12:49,710
预计到2033年将达七百七十亿美元

279
00:12:49,710 --> 00:12:51,370
年复合增长率七点

280
00:12:51,370 --> 00:12:53,350
二个百分点持续八年

281
00:12:53,350 --> 00:12:55,509
所以我确实看到太空经济潜力

282
00:12:55,509 --> 00:13:01,179
因此还有其他方式接触太空经济

283
00:13:01,179 --> 00:13:03,269
以更合理估值

284
00:13:03,269 --> 00:13:05,049
所以几个替代方案

285
00:13:05,049 --> 00:13:07,759
一种选择是买入亚马逊

286
00:13:07,759 --> 00:13:10,740
这已是我的最大持仓

287
00:13:10,740 --> 00:13:14,179
因太空经济因素持续增持

288
00:13:14,179 --> 00:13:14,700
哦对了

289
00:13:14,700 --> 00:13:16,700
这就是当前原因之一

290
00:13:16,700 --> 00:13:22,779
因为亚马逊旗下有子公司亚马逊LEO

291
00:13:22,779 --> 00:13:30,480
曾名Project Kuiper 且是星链最危险竞争对手

292
00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:32,828
你有机会以极低成本买入星链

293
00:13:32,828 --> 00:13:35,808
几乎以近乎免费价格

294
00:13:35,808 --> 00:13:36,989
成本仅为几分之一

295
00:13:36,989 --> 00:13:39,149
为何如此首先

296
00:13:39,149 --> 00:13:44,639
亚马逊LEO正部署三千两百颗低轨卫星

297
00:13:44,639 --> 00:13:45,419
什么是LEO

298
00:13:45,419 --> 00:13:47,919
低地球轨道卫星实现全球覆盖

299
00:13:47,919 --> 00:13:49,899
高速卫星互联网服务

300
00:13:49,899 --> 00:13:55,198
直接与星链和亚马逊竞争具有三大优势胜过星链

301
00:13:55,198 --> 00:13:58,818
首先是与AWS的整合

302
00:13:58,818 --> 00:14:02,509
这使他们在全球市场拥有非常强大的竞争力

303
00:14:02,509 --> 00:14:04,370
高速互联网市场

304
00:14:04,370 --> 00:14:09,549
亚马逊可以将卫星连接与亚马逊云服务捆绑销售

305
00:14:09,549 --> 00:14:10,789
云服务

306
00:14:10,789 --> 00:14:16,090
因此从单一供应商获得连接、安全和设备管理

307
00:14:16,090 --> 00:14:19,399
这是SpaceX无法匹敌的

308
00:14:19,399 --> 00:14:22,120
第二点是资金实力

309
00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:31,389
SpaceX需要通过持续融资和增发股份来筹集资金

310
00:14:31,389 --> 00:14:36,828
但亚马逊每年产生的运营现金流约700亿美元

311
00:14:36,828 --> 00:14:40,649
因此亚马逊无需外部融资即可完成所有事项

312
00:14:40,649 --> 00:14:41,330
他们无需担忧资金链断裂

313
00:14:41,330 --> 00:14:41,649
你下线了

314
00:14:41,649 --> 00:14:42,230
股东们

315
00:14:42,230 --> 00:14:44,850
我认为亚马逊低轨卫星将表现优异的原因

316
00:14:44,850 --> 00:14:46,929
在于第二供应商刚需

317
00:14:46,929 --> 00:14:47,950
这是什么意思

318
00:14:53,450 --> 00:14:53,970
换句话说

319
00:14:53,970 --> 00:14:55,649
他们不会只依赖单一供应商

320
00:14:55,649 --> 00:14:56,470
这正是需求所在

321
00:14:56,470 --> 00:14:59,399
他们始终会有第二供应商

322
00:14:59,399 --> 00:15:01,179
用于HDR床

323
00:15:01,179 --> 00:15:07,700
而亚马逊是唯一具备财务资源和技术能力成为替代方案的实体

324
00:15:07,700 --> 00:15:08,519
换句话说

325
00:15:08,519 --> 00:15:10,019
通过购买亚马逊股票

326
00:15:10,019 --> 00:15:13,870
你实际上获得了太空经济的免费看涨期权

327
00:15:14,809 --> 00:15:19,350
亚马逊低轨卫星的价值未被当前股价反映

328
00:15:19,350 --> 00:15:21,129
因为当你现在买入亚马逊股票

329
00:15:21,129 --> 00:15:22,269
你支付的是

330
00:15:22,269 --> 00:15:23,279
电商业务

331
00:15:23,279 --> 00:15:24,960
广告业务

332
00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:26,639
Prime会员业务

333
00:15:26,639 --> 00:15:27,960
物流业务

334
00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:29,259
机器人业务

335
00:15:29,259 --> 00:15:31,379
亚马逊云服务业务

336
00:15:31,379 --> 00:15:34,578
现在你免费获得太空业务

337
00:15:34,578 --> 00:15:35,839
请非常明确

338
00:15:35,839 --> 00:15:39,058
我并非建议你现在买入亚马逊股票

339
00:15:39,058 --> 00:15:40,719
我不建议你采取任何行动

340
00:15:40,719 --> 00:15:45,909
我只是分享亚马逊目前是我投资组合中最大的持仓

341
00:15:45,909 --> 00:15:46,909
在我的两个账户中

342
00:15:46,909 --> 00:15:48,370
你可以看到亚马逊

343
00:15:48,370 --> 00:15:51,869
我持有约39万美元

344
00:15:51,869 --> 00:15:52,168
U

345
00:15:52,168 --> 00:15:53,068
在此账户中

346
00:15:53,068 --> 00:15:56,688
而在另一个账户中持有43万美元

347
00:15:56,688 --> 00:16:00,818
总计在亚马逊投资超过80万美元

348
00:16:00,818 --> 00:16:02,678
并且我一直持续买入

349
00:16:02,678 --> 00:16:04,239
实际上与亚马逊不相上下

350
00:16:04,239 --> 00:16:05,899
我另一个非常大的持仓是

351
00:16:05,899 --> 00:16:07,658
当然还有谷歌的字母母公司

352
00:16:07,658 --> 00:16:12,000
我也持有价值超过八十万美元的股票

353
00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:18,440
为什么呢 因为字母或谷歌是参与太空经济的另一种非常聪明的方式

354
00:16:18,969 --> 00:16:20,249
很多人并不了解这一点

355
00:16:20,249 --> 00:16:23,048
但字母公司有点像伯克希尔哈撒韦

356
00:16:23,048 --> 00:16:24,869
科技界的标杆

357
00:16:24,869 --> 00:16:30,460
许多伟大的科技公司实际上都由字母公司控股

358
00:16:30,460 --> 00:16:33,659
包括上市公司和私营公司

359
00:16:33,659 --> 00:16:34,700
事实上

360
00:16:34,700 --> 00:16:37,220
在私人风险投资组合中

361
00:16:37,220 --> 00:16:42,740
可以看到字母公司持有SpaceX 7%的股份

362
00:16:42,740 --> 00:16:47,000
他们最初在2015年投资了9亿美元

363
00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:54,190
如今IPO前估值在870亿至1400亿美元之间

364
00:16:54,190 --> 00:16:54,830
再说一次

365
00:16:54,830 --> 00:16:58,539
这并未计入字母公司的股价

366
00:16:58,539 --> 00:16:59,580
当你购买字母公司股票时

367
00:16:59,580 --> 00:17:01,980
实际上你获得了这部分资产免费

368
00:17:01,980 --> 00:17:03,799
相当于获得7%的折扣

369
00:17:03,799 --> 00:17:06,319
因此免费获得了SpaceX的份额

370
00:17:06,319 --> 00:17:07,480
顺便说一句

371
00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:08,039
正如你所知

372
00:17:08,039 --> 00:17:11,970
Anthropic正成为前沿科技中最受欢迎的公司

373
00:17:11,970 --> 00:17:17,009
AI模型领域 字母公司同样持有其14%的股份

374
00:17:17,009 --> 00:17:24,130
而Anthropic运营的LLM正在重塑企业软件世界

375
00:17:24,130 --> 00:17:26,430
嗯 字母公司还持有Stripe

376
00:17:26,430 --> 00:17:27,750
他们还拥有更多

377
00:17:27,750 --> 00:17:29,138
这是领先的

378
00:17:29,338 --> 00:17:33,199
目前全球领先的自动驾驶解决方案提供商

379
00:17:33,199 --> 00:17:33,818
当然

380
00:17:33,818 --> 00:17:36,380
特斯拉正在努力追赶

381
00:17:36,380 --> 00:17:36,940
呃

382
00:17:36,940 --> 00:17:38,859
字母公司还持有Asd

383
00:17:38,859 --> 00:17:39,140
Space

384
00:17:39,140 --> 00:17:40,619
移动和行星实验室

385
00:17:40,619 --> 00:17:43,519
这些都是太空经济中的主导企业

386
00:17:43,519 --> 00:17:46,140
记住当公司进行IPO时

387
00:17:46,140 --> 00:17:49,029
他们希望获得最高价格

388
00:17:49,029 --> 00:17:50,650
这不是慈善行为

389
00:17:50,650 --> 00:17:52,490
如果一家公司需要融资

390
00:17:52,490 --> 00:17:55,250
显然会定价到最高可能价位

391
00:17:55,250 --> 00:17:56,929
人们认为可以承受的价位

392
00:17:56,929 --> 00:18:02,009
寻求退出的投资者也会考虑以更高价格出售

393
00:18:02,009 --> 00:18:04,190
这也是为什么IPO常被

394
00:18:04,190 --> 00:18:06,009
可能被高估了

395
00:18:06,009 --> 00:18:08,869
现在内部人士获利

396
00:18:08,869 --> 00:18:10,750
但话说回来 这并不意味着

397
00:18:10,750 --> 00:18:11,990
即使严重高估

398
00:18:11,990 --> 00:18:15,299
股价初期不会上涨

399
00:18:15,460 --> 00:18:19,220
当它首次在股票市场上市时

400
00:18:19,220 --> 00:18:22,109
原因在于记住在短期内

401
00:18:22,109 --> 00:18:25,309
价格不受基本面驱动

402
00:18:25,309 --> 00:18:27,130
价格不受逻辑驱动

403
00:18:27,130 --> 00:18:29,799
价格由情绪推动

404
00:18:29,799 --> 00:18:31,519
所以如果所有人都充满热情

405
00:18:31,519 --> 00:18:32,720
并且非常兴奋

406
00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:34,980
即使定价严重过高

407
00:18:34,980 --> 00:18:37,200
它仍可能继续上涨

408
00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:39,460
所以如果你想参与

409
00:18:39,460 --> 00:18:41,029
不是作为投资者

410
00:18:41,029 --> 00:18:43,710
而是想更像投机者参与

411
00:18:43,710 --> 00:18:46,150
押注 momentum 可能可行

412
00:18:46,150 --> 00:18:48,630
需要制定入场和出场策略

413
00:18:48,630 --> 00:18:51,549
这是我从多个 IPO 中总结出的

414
00:18:51,549 --> 00:18:51,750
现在

415
00:18:51,750 --> 00:18:53,109
当然首先

416
00:18:53,109 --> 00:18:54,670
如果是一家糟糕的公司

417
00:18:54,670 --> 00:18:55,509
那就别考虑了

418
00:18:55,509 --> 00:18:57,650
至少要是一家不错的公司

419
00:18:57,650 --> 00:19:00,960
你要在股价波动中操作

420
00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:03,099
让我们看看近期的 IPO

421
00:19:03,099 --> 00:19:04,579
第一个是 CoreWeave

422
00:19:04,579 --> 00:19:05,210
编织公司

423
00:19:05,210 --> 00:19:07,089
现在注意通常会发生什么

424
00:19:07,089 --> 00:19:09,609
即使是一家好公司 IPO

425
00:19:09,609 --> 00:19:12,269
股票价格也会有初期上涨

426
00:19:12,269 --> 00:19:13,710
这再次源于 hype（炒作）

427
00:19:13,710 --> 00:19:16,130
因此初始开盘价

428
00:19:16,130 --> 00:19:18,750
会一路上涨到高点

429
00:19:18,750 --> 00:19:20,109
然后回落

430
00:19:20,109 --> 00:19:22,460
随后再次上涨

431
00:19:22,460 --> 00:19:24,440
这里有几种操作方式

432
00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:31,159
第一个入场点是在价格从高点下跌40-50%时入场

433
00:19:31,159 --> 00:19:37,740
第二个入场点是价格收盘回到高点上方时

434
00:19:37,740 --> 00:19:39,559
让我解释一下

435
00:19:39,559 --> 00:19:42,140
价格在此开盘

436
00:19:42,140 --> 00:19:45,059
然后出现初期上涨

437
00:19:45,059 --> 00:19:47,519
当达到高点后

438
00:19:47,519 --> 00:19:48,888
我们称之为 H 点

439
00:19:48,888 --> 00:19:54,910
然后等待40-50%的回调作为第一入场时机

440
00:19:54,910 --> 00:19:56,589
这里有一个测量工具

441
00:19:56,589 --> 00:19:57,890
你可以点击测量工具

442
00:19:57,890 --> 00:20:01,750
从顶部测量40-50%的跌幅

443
00:20:01,750 --> 00:20:03,390
一路下跌

444
00:20:03,390 --> 00:20:08,170
大约40%的回调在这里

445
00:20:08,170 --> 00:20:12,970
此时就是第一个入场点

446
00:20:13,130 --> 00:20:15,130
我们称其为入场点1

447
00:20:16,170 --> 00:20:20,940
你可以在入场点1买入首批股份

448
00:20:20,940 --> 00:20:23,039
Band Minder 必须是一家好公司

449
00:20:23,039 --> 00:20:24,059
如果是一家糟糕的公司

450
00:20:24,059 --> 00:20:25,059
可能会继续下跌

451
00:20:25,059 --> 00:20:26,460
你知道就别管它了

452
00:20:26,460 --> 00:20:26,619
对吧

453
00:20:26,619 --> 00:20:29,160
现在必须是一家好公司

454
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,059
另一个入场点是

455
00:20:31,059 --> 00:20:37,430
然后等待价格回升并重新突破高位

456
00:20:37,430 --> 00:20:41,650
你可以看到这根蜡烛收盘重新回到高位上方

457
00:20:41,650 --> 00:20:45,130
这是第二个潜在入场点

458
00:20:45,130 --> 00:20:49,430
所以你要么在e1入场，要么在e2入场

459
00:20:49,430 --> 00:20:50,329
现在有些人问

460
00:20:50,329 --> 00:20:52,690
我可以同时做吗，买一半e1

461
00:20:52,690 --> 00:20:53,670
一半e2

462
00:20:53,670 --> 00:20:55,539
当然可以

463
00:20:56,619 --> 00:20:58,380
现在何时退出呢

464
00:20:58,380 --> 00:21:01,099
这取决于你是长期投资

465
00:21:01,099 --> 00:21:02,480
并且认为这家公司很棒

466
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:03,099
持续增长

467
00:21:03,099 --> 00:21:04,660
那就长期持有

468
00:21:04,660 --> 00:21:07,829
但如果是短期投机交易

469
00:21:07,829 --> 00:21:10,509
只想快速进出获利

470
00:21:10,509 --> 00:21:13,210
那么潜在的退出规则是

471
00:21:13,210 --> 00:21:18,888
当价格收盘跌破20日指数移动平均线

472
00:21:18,888 --> 00:21:21,789
这是日线图的20EMA

473
00:21:21,789 --> 00:21:23,970
这也是40EMA

474
00:21:23,970 --> 00:21:27,190
一旦收盘跌破20EMA

475
00:21:27,190 --> 00:21:28,049
好的

476
00:21:28,049 --> 00:21:28,349
比如

477
00:21:28,349 --> 00:21:28,769
例如

478
00:21:28,769 --> 00:21:31,190
但可以看到价格跌破双EMA

479
00:21:31,190 --> 00:21:33,509
这根蜡烛收盘跌破双EMA

480
00:21:33,509 --> 00:21:35,359
可以在此卖出一半

481
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:39,299
然后当20EMA跌破40EMA时

482
00:21:39,299 --> 00:21:40,599
这可能是一个信号

483
00:21:40,599 --> 00:21:42,819
然后卖出剩余仓位的一半

484
00:21:42,819 --> 00:21:43,420
好的

485
00:21:43,420 --> 00:21:44,660
所以你会获得

486
00:21:44,660 --> 00:21:45,160
呃

487
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:46,740
途中一些利润

488
00:21:46,740 --> 00:21:48,799
这是另一种操作方式

489
00:21:48,799 --> 00:21:50,250
基于价格走势

490
00:21:50,250 --> 00:21:51,910
让我们看另一个例子

491
00:21:51,910 --> 00:21:52,890
已经准备好了

492
00:21:52,890 --> 00:21:57,759
Rdtt确实完全相同模式

493
00:21:57,759 --> 00:21:59,119
所以让我们回到最初阶段

494
00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:04,920
IpO这里就是，对吧

495
00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:06,920
首先该做什么

496
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,440
等待开盘并大幅上涨

497
00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:11,460
先冲高然后形成新高

498
00:22:11,460 --> 00:22:15,509
然后等待40%-50%的回调

499
00:22:15,509 --> 00:22:16,230
所以同样的情况

500
00:22:16,230 --> 00:22:17,289
在那里进行一次测量

501
00:22:17,289 --> 00:22:21,759
从顶部一路下跌至约40%位置

502
00:22:21,759 --> 00:22:23,869
大概就在这里

503
00:22:23,869 --> 00:22:25,029
40%

504
00:22:25,029 --> 00:22:30,469
因此这就是e1的入场点一

505
00:22:31,229 --> 00:22:34,868
入场点二是在价格收盘重新回到高位上方时

506
00:22:34,868 --> 00:22:38,349
现在可以看到当价格在高位上方时

507
00:22:38,349 --> 00:22:39,130
在高位上方

508
00:22:39,130 --> 00:22:40,349
在高位上方 在高位上方

509
00:22:40,349 --> 00:22:42,170
但它从未收盘突破高位

510
00:22:42,170 --> 00:22:42,990
这些蜡烛线

511
00:22:42,990 --> 00:22:44,559
收盘价高于但未突破高位

512
00:22:44,559 --> 00:22:47,359
只有这里能看到收盘价突破高位

513
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:51,470
这将是第二个入场点

514
00:22:51,470 --> 00:22:54,930
你可以选择在e1和e2各投入一半

515
00:22:54,930 --> 00:22:57,829
或者全部在e1入场

516
00:22:57,829 --> 00:22:58,910
这取决于你

517
00:22:58,910 --> 00:23:00,369
这取决于你的操作方式

518
00:23:00,369 --> 00:23:01,329
一旦入场

519
00:23:01,329 --> 00:23:02,210
当你退出时

520
00:23:02,210 --> 00:23:02,890
立即退出

521
00:23:02,890 --> 00:23:06,619
当收盘价跌破20日均线时

522
00:23:06,619 --> 00:23:07,460
好的

523
00:23:07,460 --> 00:23:09,380
这里收盘价跌破20日均线

524
00:23:09,380 --> 00:23:11,089
可以先卖出一半

525
00:23:11,089 --> 00:23:13,410
并且20日均线跌破40日均线

526
00:23:13,410 --> 00:23:15,430
随后卖出剩余部分

527
00:23:15,430 --> 00:23:17,869
当然我们都希望在顶部卖出

528
00:23:17,869 --> 00:23:20,200
但没人能预测顶部

529
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:25,130
只能在趋势转向下跌时离场

530
00:23:25,130 --> 00:23:30,269
可以看到即使是优秀的长期复利公司

531
00:23:30,269 --> 00:23:31,650
在首次上市时

532
00:23:31,650 --> 00:23:35,970
总会经历至少40-50%的回调

533
00:23:35,970 --> 00:23:39,230
让我们回到一只我持有多年的股票

534
00:23:39,230 --> 00:23:40,490
我非常早买入

535
00:23:40,490 --> 00:23:42,888
但我同样愚蠢地过早卖出

536
00:23:42,888 --> 00:23:45,229
后来不得不以更高价格重新买入

537
00:23:45,229 --> 00:23:49,138
这就是Meta平台公司（原Facebook）

538
00:23:49,138 --> 00:23:53,349
让我们回溯历史观察相同模式

539
00:23:53,349 --> 00:23:56,430
Facebook首次上市于2012年

540
00:23:56,430 --> 00:23:59,109
可以看到首次上市时的表现

541
00:23:59,109 --> 00:24:06,599
从高位启动并形成新高至

542
00:24:06,599 --> 00:24:06,920
嗯

543
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:09,200
44.97美元

544
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,858
冲高后开始下跌

545
00:24:11,858 --> 00:24:12,558
哇

546
00:24:12,558 --> 00:24:14,219
一路跌至低位

547
00:24:14,219 --> 00:24:17,839
总跌幅约61%

548
00:24:17,839 --> 00:24:20,920
当然无法预测下跌幅度

549
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:21,680
这就是为什么

550
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:24,500
我的经验法则是四到五十个百分点

551
00:24:24,500 --> 00:24:26,200
然后你就可以入场了

552
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:27,000
所以如果你选择

553
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:31,440
假设从高点下跌了四十个百分点

554
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:31,960
这将相当于

555
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:32,880
大概在

556
00:24:34,559 --> 00:24:35,680
嗯

557
00:24:37,339 --> 00:24:38,980
这里大概在这个位置

558
00:24:38,980 --> 00:24:39,400
对的

559
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:41,619
第一个入场点

560
00:24:41,619 --> 00:24:42,460
呃

561
00:24:42,460 --> 00:24:46,240
第一个入场点大约在二十美元

562
00:24:46,789 --> 00:24:47,349
呃

563
00:24:47,349 --> 00:24:48,150
二十六美元

564
00:24:48,150 --> 00:24:50,509
现在就有了第一个入场点

565
00:24:50,509 --> 00:24:55,039
入场后价格可能还会更低但

566
00:24:55,039 --> 00:24:56,079
如果你相信这家公司

567
00:24:56,079 --> 00:24:58,240
就继续持有这个入场点

568
00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:03,670
第二个入场点会在收盘突破高位时

569
00:25:03,670 --> 00:25:06,690
这就是第二个入场点

570
00:25:06,930 --> 00:25:11,150
你可以再次在此处和之前各投入一半

571
00:25:11,150 --> 00:25:12,970
或者只在此处入场

572
00:25:12,970 --> 00:25:15,119
这完全取决于你

573
00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:17,359
现在问题是何时退出

574
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:20,220
如果将脸书视为长期投资

575
00:25:20,220 --> 00:25:24,140
只需关注长期价值并评估内在价值

576
00:25:24,140 --> 00:25:27,539
只要未超过内在价值的百分之百

577
00:25:27,539 --> 00:25:29,609
就长期持有

578
00:25:29,609 --> 00:25:32,009
但如果是纯粹投机

579
00:25:32,009 --> 00:25:33,450
无需考虑内在价值

580
00:25:33,450 --> 00:25:35,269
根据价格走势退出

581
00:25:35,269 --> 00:25:39,059
这样几乎只能获得微薄利润

582
00:25:39,059 --> 00:25:40,579
你可以看到入场后

583
00:25:40,579 --> 00:25:43,299
价格上升后又跌破二十美元

584
00:25:43,299 --> 00:25:46,369
此处可小利了结

585
00:25:46,369 --> 00:25:48,269
当然如果你在此处入场

586
00:25:48,269 --> 00:25:51,619
仍能获得相当不错的收益

587
00:25:51,619 --> 00:25:55,160
然后在此全部退出

588
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:56,839
当二十线跌破四十线时

589
00:25:56,839 --> 00:25:58,460
震出了散户筹码

590
00:25:58,460 --> 00:25:59,980
然后继续上涨

591
00:25:59,980 --> 00:26:03,490
当然长期持续增长

592
00:26:03,490 --> 00:26:05,710
如果切换为周线K线

593
00:26:05,710 --> 00:26:10,630
可以看到脸书的长期表现

594
00:26:10,630 --> 00:26:11,990
长期持有

595
00:26:11,990 --> 00:26:12,890
正如我说的

596
00:26:12,890 --> 00:26:13,269
你知道的

597
00:26:13,269 --> 00:26:14,210
我非常早地入场

598
00:26:14,210 --> 00:26:16,750
我也愚蠢地过早卖出

599
00:26:16,750 --> 00:26:20,440
这提醒了我们长期投资的重要性

600
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:24,519
所以你可以看到我最初是在十九美元买入了Facebook

601
00:26:24,519 --> 00:26:28,029
当我以约四十到五十美元卖出时

602
00:26:28,029 --> 00:26:28,970
我当时觉得自己是个天才

603
00:26:28,970 --> 00:26:29,190
嗯

604
00:26:29,190 --> 00:26:32,690
我赚了一百百分之百的利润，而且股价还在不断上涨

605
00:26:32,690 --> 00:26:35,509
所以我多次回购了这只股票

606
00:26:35,509 --> 00:26:37,130
我在一百美元时重新买入

607
00:26:37,130 --> 00:26:38,569
我在一百五十美元时再次买入

608
00:26:38,569 --> 00:26:40,230
我在两百美元时第三次买入

609
00:26:40,230 --> 00:26:41,589
我在三百美元时第四次买入

610
00:26:41,589 --> 00:26:44,289
现在我仍然持有它

611
00:26:44,289 --> 00:26:47,680
Meta也是我最大的持仓之一

612
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:50,160
这应该是我第三或第四大持仓

613
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:54,019
我投入了约六十五万美元

614
00:26:54,019 --> 00:26:56,690
再次投资于Meta

615
00:26:56,690 --> 00:26:57,369
嗯

616
00:26:57,369 --> 00:26:57,890
你知道的

617
00:26:57,890 --> 00:26:58,910
长期持有

618
00:26:58,910 --> 00:26:59,710
作为投资者

619
00:26:59,710 --> 00:27:02,549
总能获得丰厚回报

620
00:27:02,549 --> 00:27:06,970
相比短期投机获取利润

621
00:27:06,970 --> 00:27:08,250
作为投机者

622
00:27:08,250 --> 00:27:09,069
好的

623
00:27:09,069 --> 00:27:10,900
希望这个例子对你有帮助

624
00:27:10,900 --> 00:27:11,900
一如既往

625
00:27:11,900 --> 00:27:12,779
感谢观看

626
00:27:12,779 --> 00:27:13,960
订阅观看下期视频

627
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:16,430
一如既往，愿市场眷顾你

628
00:27:16,430 --> 00:27:18,210
如果你想观看我的最新视频

629
00:27:18,210 --> 00:27:19,670
请点击订阅按钮

630
00:27:19,670 --> 00:27:20,569
现在就点击

631
00:27:20,569 --> 00:27:21,549
点击铃铛图标

632
00:27:21,549 --> 00:27:22,990
以便即时接收通知

633
00:27:22,990 --> 00:27:25,289
我上传最新视频后

634
00:27:25,289 --> 00:27:27,630
如果你想了解我的在线课程

635
00:27:27,630 --> 00:27:29,880
访问piranha profits.com

636
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:33,160
我们将学习如何投资和应对金融市场

637
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:36,089
并从全球各地创造收入

638
00:27:36,089 --> 00:27:39,509
如果你想加入我的实时财富学院项目

639
00:27:39,509 --> 00:27:41,849
前往wealth academy global.com

640
00:27:41,849 --> 00:27:45,859
了解如何在线学习投资与交易

641
00:27:45,859 --> 00:27:46,619
我是Adam Cool

642
00:27:46,619 --> 00:27:48,519
愿市场永远站在你这边

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