超额收益不走寻常路

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从我开始爬山以后呢

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我就发现了一个规律啊

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真正的翻倍股哈

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空气反转绝对都是靠自己发掘

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一个人思考

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一个人洞察出来的

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而不是在人堆里面

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比如我今天我带着狗啊啊

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爬了一个非常崎岖的山路

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兄弟们

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你看到没有

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这个山上全是茼蒿啊

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就这里面那边上全是茼蒿

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好像再来一些

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那这些同蒿呢呵呵基本上没有人发现

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为啥呢

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第一老美他不爱吃哈

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第二个呢这条路呢也没人走哈

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第三个呢大雁呢呵呵呵

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不喜欢爬野山

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所以每次插野山基本就我一个人

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所以这就是你发现翻倍股和困境

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反转股的一个有意思的点啊

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比如说我在2023年的时候啊

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当时发现了好未来就学二师报了嘛

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好未来到现在已经翻了啊

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3~4倍

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四块多吧

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啊

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今年呢也是给大家发现了一些便宜的

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科技发展公司啊

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回报率很高嘛

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我基本上三到5年回本

34
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其实这些机会呢都是无人问津啊

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甚至来讲大家都非常唾弃

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看起来呢不咋地

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但是呢你要仔细看看

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你发现实际上它其实并不贵

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而且呢大概率亏不了什么钱

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而且呢公司呢还有混动

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反混动发展的这种可能性哈

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就他的业务还在啊

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还在创新

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所以呢就是你要靠思考

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靠洞察哈

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靠挖掘一定找到好机会

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但是如果说别人看到了哈

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别人草高了那些哎呀

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人家运用航天啊

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甚至来讲机器人啊看不到业绩

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那估值呢都上百倍上千倍了

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而且到现在可能还是亏的

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如果你是跟着别人炒这些东西呢

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注定呢不但赚不到钱

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还有可能被套在山顶上

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那为什么有的人能发现好机会

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有的人发现不了

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有原因

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就是你走的什么路啊

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比如说我吧哈

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我特别喜欢走这种啊

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没有人走的路

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就像我在济南爬山爬的都是野山啊

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在美国爬山爬了还是野山

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其实这些路呢没有人走

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所以呢他才有好机会

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他即使偶尔有人走

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走的人呢

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他不用心对吧

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就像我说过去那些年在吃饭

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酒桌上听别人吹牛逼啊

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发起了很多很多犯被捕啊

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有的是回购的啊

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有的是业绩很好啊

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有的是困境反转哈

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还有的是他自己都不知道

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但是呢我听出来了

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因为我找好了准备

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昨天西安见面会

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我举了个渔网的案例啊

81
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我有一张网

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他这张网呢是四维的网哈

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这个思维就是啊

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你基本上你基本上你是想明白的哈

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那很多这种啊这种所谓的好公司

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差公司选的一清二楚

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所以这种网只要鱼来了

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分分钟把他网进来

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但是大部分人呢他没有这种网

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所以就是鱼来的它也兜不住啊

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我的网呢只是只网大鱼不网小鱼对吧

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所以呢经常发现这种大型的转型公司哈

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比如去年的啊这个哈特太阳能啊

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一下子翻了3~4倍啊

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包括微醺啊

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微讯其实现去年而且也翻了四倍

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就这些机会呢都是别人呢没有注意

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或者注意之后看一眼就丢掉了

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但是呢我呢仔细的品味完之后啊

100
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独自思考完之后发现的机会啊

101
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今天爬山一样哈

102
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搞了很多茼蒿

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这些茼蒿呢就在那里

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也没人要

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也是野生的

106
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但是呢嘿如果说你不认识同行

107
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或者说你认识呢

108
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嘿嘿但是你你不来

109
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实际上你也没有同行

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那这个就是发现机油的前提是说

111
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第一个你要懂啊

112
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你要做好准备

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你要有一张网

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第二个哈机会来的时候呢

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你要真的下重注是吧

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能够抓住这两块

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决定了你的最终的收益

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所以并不是没有机会啊

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这机会呢越来越少是真的

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但要求越来越高是真的

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而且呢对人的要求呢其实每一年都在提高

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所以你要考虑你怎么样啊

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让你的成长性匹配的机会啊

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就是像巴菲特和段永平啊

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这两年他们都啊退休了啊

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不怎么研究他们的收益率呢也慢慢变得少了

127
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实际上并不是说没有机会啊

128
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这两年AI机会很多对吧

129
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机器人航空航天机会很多

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但是你德巴威特他他们说哈不研究原因是什么

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因为对他来讲哈

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研究这个东西呢

133
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也是那不符合他的年龄的一个需求了

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因为确实超过能力票了

135
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所以实际上呢任何的人你都要去成长

136
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都要学些东西哈

137
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都要去不断的思考

138
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不断的去挖掘

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保证你的收益率呢每年都可以提升

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所以2026年呢哈

141
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我把这个思维方式呢哈哈又升级了一下

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因为这个啊这个时代就这样的企业行业国家哈

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然后地地缘政治所有的点你都考虑到的时候

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你就不仅仅是赚那个鞋内带的那架子的钱对吧

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还有人性的钱是吧

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还有资金的钱

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还有情绪的钱

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那还有政治的钱

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实际上如果想大乘的确确实实

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每个点都要去考虑到

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