房价到底了吗？

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20年房产神话被打破

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只用了3年时间

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3年来

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包括一线城市在内

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全国房价经历了住房商品化以来

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时间最长幅度最大的一轮调整

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过去总说晚买一年白干5年

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这几年是早买一年白干10年

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残酷的现实迫使越来越多人改变了预期

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开始更加冷静的看待楼市

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这一轮下跌的原因是什么

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当初又是怎么涨上来的

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房价见底了吗

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怎样判断是否应该买房

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普通人下一步又该怎么做

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这将是今天这个主题主要的讨论重点

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一房价究竟下跌了多少

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用数据说话

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数据来自wind

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数据源为中原中原根据实际二手房成交价

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统计了包括北上广深在内部分热点城市

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2004年之后的所有

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二手房成交价和租房价格数据

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自2021年以来

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一线城市房价先后见顶下跌

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从下跌的时长

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跌幅下跌的绝对值看

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这一波调整期都是空前的

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远超2008年全球金融危机时期

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分城市看

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北京累计下跌20%

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跌回2016年12月

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上海累计下跌22.8%

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跌回2016年7月

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广州累计下跌21%

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跌回2017年11月

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深圳累计下跌34.6%

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价格跌回2016年9月

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从四大一线城市来看

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除了深圳跌幅接近35%以外

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北上广三个城市的跌幅在20%出头

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相对来说好一些

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但目前从趋势图看

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四大一线城市正处在快速下跌时段

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没有明显的见底信号

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经过这一轮下跌

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近几年买房的购房者几乎都陷入了浮亏状态

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而且还是在不考虑按揭利息成本的情况下

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而在最高位购入房产的买房者来说

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现在的情况更是困难

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以深圳为例

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在2020年底

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2021年初

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以三成首付进场的购房者已经成为负资产

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我好奇到底多少家庭被深套了

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这里只计算2020年和2021年

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在深圳买房的家庭

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深圳在2020年

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新房成交4万5384套

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二手房成交9万5273套

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2021年新房成交5万2417套

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二手房成交4万699套

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四个数字相加最高位

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两年合计有23.37万个买家接盘

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对应23.37万个家庭

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如果一个家庭按六个钱包计算

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那就是超过140万个钱包被套

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这仅仅是深圳一座城市在这两年的成交

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其他时间和其他城市的数据感兴趣

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你可以自己用类似的方法去计算

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我们也可以看到

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过去3年

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不少二三线城市房价的跌幅反而远小于一线

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这说明在楼市下行的周期中

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一线城市并不是资产堡垒

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相反由于之前一线城市的上涨预期更强

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杠杆率更高

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所以下跌时的幅度反而可能更大

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这早有先例

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日本在1991年房价鉴定鉴定前六大都市

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日本一线城市房价涨幅远超全日本平均水平

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见顶后六大都市的跌幅也远超全日本平均水平

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最后无论是大城市还是小城市

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大家从哪里来回哪里去

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二为什么下跌

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从宏观角度看

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之所以这几年房价下跌

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本质是老百姓负债率已经很高了

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很难再加上去了

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如果看数据

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你会发现

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中国居民部门杠杆率

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就是在2020年底见顶的

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当时大约达到了62%的杠杆率

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这正好也是热点城市房价鉴定的事件

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在见顶之后

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他没有像当年日本和美国那样拐头向下

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而是顽强地在高位横住了

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但即便如此

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我们还是经历了长达3年的房价下行

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这是因为在巨量的房地产供应和库存下

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要使得房价继续上涨

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必须要有和过去一样呈指数增长的增量

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信贷持续进入

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否则价格就绷不住

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而杠杆率还不能很好的表现

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中国人的实际负债压力

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因为杠杆率的基数是GDP

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而不是可支配收入

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考虑到中国人的可支配收入占GDP比重

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是全球主要经济体中最低的

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那么中国人的实际体感负债压力

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是明显高于杠杆率所显示的数字的

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中国居民收入占GDP的比重只有45%

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作为对比

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美国的这个比值是83.4%

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比例是中国的1.85倍

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也就是说中国63.5%的居民杠杆率

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对于居民来说

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在财务上的实际压力

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相当于美国的1.85乘63.5%

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等于117.5%

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而美国现在的居民杠杆率

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大概就是73%

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在次贷危机之前的最顶点

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也就是刚到百分之百

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这还没有考虑到中国目前的社会

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保障和福利水平还远不如发达国家这一大背景

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毕竟社会保障的不足

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会让居民在增加负债时感到更大的压力

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根据经济规律和历史推测

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如果这一轮楼市风险要得到实质性的出清

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那么居民杠杆率肯定是要降下来的

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但截至现在

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居民杠杆率仍在高位横盘

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降首付以及取消限购限售没有作用

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因为它让居民杠杆率顶住压力没有下降

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作为对比

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居民杠杆率迅速下降

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直至风险出清

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如果我们根据所有的经济学经验和历史推测

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中国居民杠杆率在后续不得不下降

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那么这一轮房价下跌还没有结束

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除了加杠杆买房的潜在能力几乎被榨干之外

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我们赚取本金和月供的能力也面临挑战

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过去几年你会发现一个现象

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那就是曾经那些造富很快的行业

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一个接着一个被锤

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比如互联网

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房地产

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教培金融游戏等等

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而这些行业几乎囊括了所有高收入的打工人

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以互联网为例

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这一轮房价下行中

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跌幅最大

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最惨的并不是之前早就被看空的三四线

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反而是曾经最火热的深圳和杭州

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杭州和深圳有什么共同点呢

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他们各自都有一家超级互联网公司

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一家是腾讯

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一家是阿里

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这两家公司曾经都是两座城市最强的造福中心

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造富能力有多强

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看看他们的曾经的股价表现

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就明白了

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那些年对于腾讯和阿里的员工来说

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只要手上持有大量自家公司股票

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只要套现一些

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就可以无压力的在本地买到一套不错的房子

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然而从2021年之后

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这两家公司的股价都出现大幅下跌

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腾讯股价从2021年3月的704港元

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跌到现在的288港元

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阿里从2020年10月的315美元

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跌到现在的70美元出头

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这是腰斩都无法形容的表现

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大约是膝盖斩

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股价下跌带来的结果就是

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互联网员工的年报大幅缩水

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因为互联网公司员工的年报中

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有很大比例就是公司股票

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而且那些在楼市中购买力最强的中高级员工

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年报大半都是股票

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腾讯员工总计约6.3万人

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阿里巴巴约22万人

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然而两地遭遇股票下跌的企业何止两家

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受到影响的家庭也远不止二三十万

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于是我们看到

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深圳全市二手房均价累计下跌了35%

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这意味着

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深圳可能已经有1/3的小区

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价格下跌了一半

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杭州的情况和深圳类似

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而且和深圳不同的是

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杭州还面临未来天量的新房供应

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2021年

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杭州土地出让金3132亿

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仅比上海低10亿

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全国第二

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以及比深圳更弱的整体接盘能力

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使得杭州房价即使跌幅很大

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但也比北上广深更难成交

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从根本来说

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今年下跌的最大原因是曾经疯狂的上涨

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而那一轮起始于2015年的房价暴涨

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使这一轮楼市惨剧的最大推手

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因为前一轮的上涨空前堆高了居民的负债

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透支了未来加杠杆的能力

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回顾过去

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你会发现中国房价并不是年年平稳上涨的

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过去

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绝大多数涨幅几乎都集中在一些特别的周期中

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过去比较典型的房价暴涨年份有2007

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各城市同比2006全线上涨

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50%至100%

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2010

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各城市同比2009年初几乎全部翻倍

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2013

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一线城市同比2012年上涨50%

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2015后

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1234线城市先后翻倍或更多

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总的来说

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00:07:50,430 --> 00:07:53,490
最近的这一轮房价暴涨是历时最长的一次

224
00:07:53,490 --> 00:07:55,180
居民杠杆加得最猛的一次

225
00:07:55,180 --> 00:07:57,250
经济基本面完全相反的一次

226
00:07:57,250 --> 00:08:00,069
也是即将进入人口重度老龄化的一次

227
00:08:00,069 --> 00:08:02,959
所以结论是他也是最后一次

228
00:08:02,959 --> 00:08:04,399
上述观点并不是事后

229
00:08:04,399 --> 00:08:04,939
诸葛亮

230
00:08:04,939 --> 00:08:06,680
我首次发布于2019年

231
00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:08,180
但因原账号被禁

232
00:08:08,180 --> 00:08:08,839
无法引用

233
00:08:08,839 --> 00:08:11,779
感兴趣的朋友可在互联网搜索最后一次爆炸

234
00:08:11,779 --> 00:08:15,310
房东经济学参考我们第一部分的数据

235
00:08:15,310 --> 00:08:17,350
即使现在房价已经大幅下跌

236
00:08:17,350 --> 00:08:20,519
北上广深的平均房价仍然比2008年上涨

237
00:08:20,519 --> 00:08:22,259
200%至300%

238
00:08:22,259 --> 00:08:23,800
这并不是一个小的涨幅

239
00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:25,000
过去3年的下跌

240
00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:27,639
只不过是回吐2015年后加速上涨

241
00:08:27,639 --> 00:08:29,199
形成的一部分泡沫而已

242
00:08:29,199 --> 00:08:31,899
实际上2014~2015年买房的人

243
00:08:31,899 --> 00:08:34,179
持有至今仍然获利很大

244
00:08:34,179 --> 00:08:36,429
但2016年后的就有点麻烦

245
00:08:36,429 --> 00:08:37,580
还是以深圳为例

246
00:08:37,580 --> 00:08:39,379
从2015年3月30日

247
00:08:39,379 --> 00:08:41,599
楼市刺激新政开始计算之后

248
00:08:41,599 --> 00:08:42,678
房价突然暴涨

249
00:08:42,678 --> 00:08:43,639
仅用一年时间

250
00:08:43,639 --> 00:08:45,499
全市二手房均价就翻倍了

251
00:08:45,499 --> 00:08:47,839
在这短短一年时间的翻倍前后

252
00:08:47,839 --> 00:08:50,299
购房的不同业主差异是巨大的

253
00:08:50,299 --> 00:08:53,629
另外那一轮房价上涨的逻辑非常不可持续

254
00:08:53,629 --> 00:08:56,440
它主要是基于链条式的加杠杆

255
00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:58,149
2015~2017年初

256
00:08:58,149 --> 00:08:59,679
极其宽松的信贷政策

257
00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:01,539
让这个链条运转了起来

258
00:09:01,539 --> 00:09:03,568
常见的加杠杆链条如下

259
00:09:03,568 --> 00:09:06,688
一年轻人从老家带着两三代人的积蓄

260
00:09:06,688 --> 00:09:09,089
或卖房所得的房款来到大城市

261
00:09:09,089 --> 00:09:12,429
通过贷款买入老破小原住民

262
00:09:12,429 --> 00:09:13,450
见房价上涨

263
00:09:13,450 --> 00:09:14,590
顺便改善居住

264
00:09:14,590 --> 00:09:15,789
用卖给新人

265
00:09:15,789 --> 00:09:17,409
老破小号的房款做首付

266
00:09:17,409 --> 00:09:19,490
贷款买了改善性住房

267
00:09:19,490 --> 00:09:22,370
三改善房业主卖出改善房作为首付

268
00:09:22,370 --> 00:09:23,980
通过贷款买入豪宅

269
00:09:23,980 --> 00:09:26,080
四豪宅业主卖出房产后

270
00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:28,179
用于企业经营其他大类资产

271
00:09:28,179 --> 00:09:29,568
投资移民出海

272
00:09:29,568 --> 00:09:30,678
除炒房外

273
00:09:30,678 --> 00:09:31,849
这个加杠杆链条

274
00:09:31,849 --> 00:09:34,068
基本涵盖了90%的房产交易

275
00:09:34,068 --> 00:09:36,828
不信问问卖给你房的业主不是置换

276
00:09:36,828 --> 00:09:37,759
就是移民

277
00:09:37,759 --> 00:09:38,840
也可以了解一下

278
00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:40,279
买你房子的年轻人

279
00:09:40,279 --> 00:09:41,870
房款不是卖房所得

280
00:09:41,870 --> 00:09:43,720
就是六个钱包

281
00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:47,200
发现链条中每个环节的共同点了吗

282
00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:50,519
那就是链条的每一个参与者都需要大幅加杠杆

283
00:09:50,519 --> 00:09:53,340
而且加杠杆的本金大都不是真金白银

284
00:09:53,340 --> 00:09:55,620
而是从原本的房产市值当中释放

285
00:09:55,620 --> 00:09:58,240
卖房或抵押或者几代人积蓄

286
00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:00,120
这种一次性红利中出来的

287
00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:00,779
同时

288
00:10:00,779 --> 00:10:03,899
这些参与者加杠杆的资质也大多为伪造

289
00:10:03,899 --> 00:10:04,500
假流水

290
00:10:04,500 --> 00:10:05,480
假工作证明

291
00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:07,279
不信你拽一个中介来问问

292
00:10:07,279 --> 00:10:08,720
说自己收入不行怎么办

293
00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:11,429
贷款他分分钟帮你搞定材料

294
00:10:11,429 --> 00:10:12,690
信贷政策的宽松

295
00:10:12,690 --> 00:10:14,610
让整个链条得以顺畅运转

296
00:10:14,610 --> 00:10:15,629
而信贷受制的话

297
00:10:15,629 --> 00:10:16,769
就像生锈的链条

298
00:10:16,769 --> 00:10:18,570
同时失去了燃料和润滑油

299
00:10:18,570 --> 00:10:19,509
无法前行

300
00:10:19,509 --> 00:10:20,769
在假材料泛滥

301
00:10:20,769 --> 00:10:22,509
房贷政策宽松的背景下

302
00:10:22,509 --> 00:10:25,320
信贷的释放是不考虑真实收入水平的

303
00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:28,830
而全社会收入水平恰好是和房租硬挂钩的

304
00:10:28,830 --> 00:10:31,370
这也解释了为什么租金回报率会这么低

305
00:10:31,370 --> 00:10:33,049
现在为什么各种降息

306
00:10:33,049 --> 00:10:34,909
降首付似乎都不起作用了呢

307
00:10:34,909 --> 00:10:38,059
因为房价脱离大多数人的收入和负债能力

308
00:10:38,059 --> 00:10:40,860
而且最关键的基层链条运转不起来

309
00:10:40,860 --> 00:10:41,879
我们上文提到

310
00:10:41,879 --> 00:10:43,379
购房需要资产置换

311
00:10:43,379 --> 00:10:44,070
提供资金

312
00:10:44,070 --> 00:10:46,889
买房客户背后大半都在卖另一套房

313
00:10:46,889 --> 00:10:48,720
而这套房可能在同一个城市

314
00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:50,179
也可能在另一个城市

315
00:10:50,179 --> 00:10:52,220
就这么逐级追根溯源

316
00:10:52,220 --> 00:10:55,039
最终依赖的是最底层刚需的六个钱包

317
00:10:55,039 --> 00:10:56,000
或存量资产

318
00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:57,350
然后现在的情况是

319
00:10:57,350 --> 00:10:59,620
链条最底层的资金释放不出来

320
00:10:59,620 --> 00:11:02,500
具体说就是老家的房子或本市的老破小

321
00:11:02,500 --> 00:11:03,250
卖不出去

322
00:11:03,250 --> 00:11:06,279
六个钱包也已经在上一轮被基本掏空了

323
00:11:06,279 --> 00:11:08,679
同时越来越多人看到房价在跌

324
00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:10,629
预期和信心遭受打击

325
00:11:10,629 --> 00:11:12,450
所以更不愿买房

326
00:11:12,450 --> 00:11:15,328
三如何判断房产合理价值

327
00:11:15,328 --> 00:11:17,548
评定一项资产价格是高是低

328
00:11:17,548 --> 00:11:19,769
最重要手段是看估值

329
00:11:19,769 --> 00:11:21,178
比如股票的市盈率

330
00:11:21,178 --> 00:11:23,429
房产的租售比或租金回报率

331
00:11:23,429 --> 00:11:25,830
假如一个公司的盈利能力增长了五倍

332
00:11:25,830 --> 00:11:27,090
股价也增长了五倍

333
00:11:27,090 --> 00:11:30,090
在潜在增长能力和企业竞争力不变的情况下

334
00:11:30,090 --> 00:11:31,899
我们不能说这家公司是泡沫

335
00:11:31,899 --> 00:11:32,889
房子也类似

336
00:11:32,889 --> 00:11:35,500
如果一套房租金和房价涨幅是一致的

337
00:11:35,500 --> 00:11:37,779
那么房价的上涨就不是泡沫

338
00:11:37,779 --> 00:11:40,450
租金回报率是一个老生常谈的话题了

339
00:11:40,450 --> 00:11:42,039
海外城市动辄4%

340
00:11:42,039 --> 00:11:44,620
5%甚至6%以上的租金回报率

341
00:11:44,620 --> 00:11:46,470
几倍于中国热点城市

342
00:11:46,470 --> 00:11:48,149
中国热点城市租金回报率

343
00:11:48,149 --> 00:11:50,399
大约只有1.5%甚至更低

344
00:11:50,399 --> 00:11:52,740
这些数据表示相同总价的物业

345
00:11:52,740 --> 00:11:56,789
海外部分热点城市的租金是国内的两至四倍

346
00:11:56,789 --> 00:11:58,830
所以我早在2017~2018年

347
00:11:58,830 --> 00:12:00,629
就在微博上分享过一个观点

348
00:12:00,629 --> 00:12:01,830
如果你有钱有途径

349
00:12:01,830 --> 00:12:02,850
又非买房不可

350
00:12:02,850 --> 00:12:05,279
那就到海外租售比合理的热点城市

351
00:12:05,279 --> 00:12:06,870
买房是一个好选择

352
00:12:06,870 --> 00:12:08,100
一边在境外收租

353
00:12:08,100 --> 00:12:10,509
一边在国内租房结余的零花钱

354
00:12:10,509 --> 00:12:12,820
甚至可以让你未来不用再上班了

355
00:12:12,820 --> 00:12:14,049
你会瞬间变得轻松

356
00:12:14,049 --> 00:12:16,299
是因为你从韭菜变成了镰刀

357
00:12:16,299 --> 00:12:17,820
而且还实现了两头鸽

358
00:12:17,820 --> 00:12:20,340
一边收割境外具有购买力的租客

359
00:12:20,340 --> 00:12:22,919
另一边利用扭曲到极致的租售比

360
00:12:22,919 --> 00:12:24,360
收割国内的房东

361
00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:24,970
没错

362
00:12:24,970 --> 00:12:27,409
国内的房东是被你收割的人

363
00:12:27,409 --> 00:12:29,929
因为只要房价不能保持上涨

364
00:12:29,929 --> 00:12:31,850
他们按照市场租金出售房子

365
00:12:31,850 --> 00:12:33,889
基本上就是在做慈善

366
00:12:33,889 --> 00:12:35,629
租售比或租金回报率

367
00:12:35,629 --> 00:12:37,730
如此重要的另外一个原因是

368
00:12:37,730 --> 00:12:39,590
他决定了一个潜在的购房者

369
00:12:39,590 --> 00:12:42,470
买房到底是为了住还是为了赌

370
00:12:42,470 --> 00:12:44,450
如果同一套房租下来的开支

371
00:12:44,450 --> 00:12:46,639
和购房后的每月月供是差不多的

372
00:12:46,639 --> 00:12:48,529
那么对于潜在的买房者来说

373
00:12:48,529 --> 00:12:51,169
买房和租房是比较平行的两个选项

374
00:12:51,169 --> 00:12:52,429
如果有三成首付

375
00:12:52,429 --> 00:12:54,860
那么可以考虑牺牲自己手上一笔现金

376
00:12:54,860 --> 00:12:56,450
换取这套房的所有权

377
00:12:56,450 --> 00:12:56,809
之后

378
00:12:56,809 --> 00:12:59,799
每个月以和租房压力相同的方式来供楼

379
00:12:59,799 --> 00:13:02,649
在这个场景下买房是一种比较理智的选择

380
00:13:02,649 --> 00:13:03,879
而现在的情况是

381
00:13:03,879 --> 00:13:05,360
几乎在所有热点城市

382
00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:06,799
以三成首付购房

383
00:13:06,799 --> 00:13:08,990
月供是租金的两至三倍之多

384
00:13:08,990 --> 00:13:10,279
那么在什么情况下

385
00:13:10,279 --> 00:13:12,500
一个人会愿意牺牲手上的流动现金

386
00:13:12,500 --> 00:13:15,860
并且之后每个月承受租房时两三倍的开支压力

387
00:13:15,860 --> 00:13:17,149
去拥有这套房呢

388
00:13:17,149 --> 00:13:18,970
显然只有一个可能性

389
00:13:18,970 --> 00:13:21,460
那就是他认定这套房要涨

390
00:13:21,460 --> 00:13:22,629
而且是大涨

391
00:13:22,629 --> 00:13:25,840
或者说害怕房价大涨后自己就买不起了

392
00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:27,589
所以现在赶忙上车

393
00:13:27,589 --> 00:13:29,808
这个情况下买房就成了压住

394
00:13:29,808 --> 00:13:31,458
房价要大涨没错

395
00:13:31,458 --> 00:13:33,859
无论你是刚需自住还是炒房客

396
00:13:33,859 --> 00:13:36,679
只要你买房的动机是觉得他未来要涨

397
00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:37,980
你就是在赌

398
00:13:37,980 --> 00:13:39,419
你也可以认真思考一下

399
00:13:39,419 --> 00:13:41,340
如果过去这几年自己买房了

400
00:13:41,340 --> 00:13:42,720
是不是出于这个心态

401
00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:44,159
如果身边有人买房了

402
00:13:44,159 --> 00:13:46,289
他们是不是也出于这个心态

403
00:13:46,289 --> 00:13:48,539
然后有意思的事情就出现了

404
00:13:48,539 --> 00:13:49,289
这3年来

405
00:13:49,289 --> 00:13:50,519
伴随房价下跌

406
00:13:50,519 --> 00:13:52,539
楼市的成交量也空前萎靡

407
00:13:52,539 --> 00:13:54,879
这完全不符合经济学的基本原则

408
00:13:54,879 --> 00:13:57,039
因为同样的商品价格下跌之后

409
00:13:57,039 --> 00:13:58,940
理论上就应该刺激需求

410
00:13:58,940 --> 00:14:02,610
就好像超市产品打折才能吸引更多客户购买

411
00:14:02,610 --> 00:14:05,519
而房子现在的情况是价格越跌越没人买

412
00:14:05,519 --> 00:14:07,889
这就证明了绝大多数的楼市的参与者

413
00:14:07,889 --> 00:14:10,639
根本不是因为要有房房子住而买房

414
00:14:10,639 --> 00:14:12,200
而是为了要有房子

415
00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:15,330
而且是要有会长的房而买房

416
00:14:15,330 --> 00:14:18,509
但是要合理评定一个地方房价的合理估值

417
00:14:18,509 --> 00:14:20,659
租金回报率虽是重要参考

418
00:14:20,659 --> 00:14:22,070
却也不是唯一指标

419
00:14:22,070 --> 00:14:24,740
租金回报率的高低受到当地按揭利率

420
00:14:24,740 --> 00:14:26,419
租金成长性所影响

421
00:14:26,419 --> 00:14:28,039
这两点是绝对的重点

422
00:14:28,039 --> 00:14:28,909
利率越低

423
00:14:28,909 --> 00:14:30,559
租金回报率往往越低

424
00:14:30,559 --> 00:14:31,759
因为低的利息下

425
00:14:31,759 --> 00:14:35,240
即使是低租金回报率也可以做到以租养贷

426
00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:37,879
比如美元加息之前的香港大把住宅

427
00:14:37,879 --> 00:14:40,480
可以做到较低首付下的以租养贷

428
00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:42,340
而城市租金的成长性越强

429
00:14:42,340 --> 00:14:44,049
租金回报率往往越低

430
00:14:44,049 --> 00:14:45,159
这也容易理解

431
00:14:45,159 --> 00:14:47,340
就好像高速成长的科技股

432
00:14:47,340 --> 00:14:50,460
估值比稳定成熟的银行股要高是一个道理

433
00:14:50,460 --> 00:14:51,690
我们可以这样理解

434
00:14:51,690 --> 00:14:53,370
中国超低的租金回报率

435
00:14:53,370 --> 00:14:55,720
一要么是因为按揭利率很低

436
00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:58,600
二要么是因为这些低租金回报率的城市

437
00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:00,870
租金拥有很强的成长性

438
00:15:00,870 --> 00:15:01,860
但遗憾的是

439
00:15:01,860 --> 00:15:05,080
中国热点城市并不符合上述两点中的任何一点

440
00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:08,620
中国城市在各自经济和人口增速最快的阶段

441
00:15:08,620 --> 00:15:12,139
2000~2010的估值反而比现在低得多

442
00:15:12,139 --> 00:15:13,669
租售比一度相当合理

443
00:15:13,669 --> 00:15:14,600
2009年初

444
00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:17,179
北上广深租金回报率均在3%以上

445
00:15:17,179 --> 00:15:18,679
在更早的2004年

446
00:15:18,679 --> 00:15:20,059
广州和深圳的住宅

447
00:15:20,059 --> 00:15:22,659
租金回报率高达7%以上

448
00:15:22,659 --> 00:15:24,220
根据我们本部分提到的

449
00:15:24,220 --> 00:15:25,899
购房者租房和按揭的心态

450
00:15:25,899 --> 00:15:28,659
看我们的房价到什么时候才是合理

451
00:15:28,659 --> 00:15:29,690
也就有了答案

452
00:15:29,690 --> 00:15:32,200
那就是按照最新的按揭利率水平

453
00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:34,779
在三成首付30年按揭之下

454
00:15:34,779 --> 00:15:37,720
每个月的月供和这套房的租金差不多的情况下

455
00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:39,490
房价就跌到位了

456
00:15:39,490 --> 00:15:42,740
租金应约等于低首付长周期下的月供

457
00:15:42,740 --> 00:15:45,500
这基本上也是全世界大多数热点城市

458
00:15:45,500 --> 00:15:46,820
房产的长期状态

459
00:15:46,820 --> 00:15:49,759
所以你可以自行估计你所在的城市房价

460
00:15:49,759 --> 00:15:52,460
距离这个合理水平还有多少空间

461
00:15:52,460 --> 00:15:54,389
四什么是刚需

462
00:15:54,389 --> 00:15:56,309
根据第一部分的房价数据

463
00:15:56,309 --> 00:15:59,490
北京上海和深圳的二手房平均房价已经跌到

464
00:15:59,490 --> 00:16:01,159
2016年下半年的水平

465
00:16:01,159 --> 00:16:02,629
这是一个可怕的结果

466
00:16:02,629 --> 00:16:04,559
因为它意味着过去7年半内

467
00:16:04,559 --> 00:16:07,379
大多数买房者即使不考虑按揭利息开支

468
00:16:07,379 --> 00:16:08,549
也是浮亏的

469
00:16:08,549 --> 00:16:10,320
而这其中很大一部分人

470
00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:12,419
是被刚需这个概念给害了

471
00:16:12,419 --> 00:16:13,080
这个概念

472
00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:16,080
迫使无数人在不合适的时间点咬牙上车

473
00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:17,759
为了破除这个有毒概念

474
00:16:17,759 --> 00:16:20,879
我们这一部分从经济学原理和心理学角度谈

475
00:16:20,879 --> 00:16:22,779
戳穿刚需这个谎言

476
00:16:22,779 --> 00:16:24,070
面对房价的下跌

477
00:16:24,070 --> 00:16:25,690
有人会说我是刚需

478
00:16:25,690 --> 00:16:26,799
我有什么办法呀

479
00:16:26,799 --> 00:16:27,970
我不得不买

480
00:16:27,970 --> 00:16:32,519
我们经常听到类似刚需不在乎涨跌或者是自住

481
00:16:32,519 --> 00:16:33,090
不怕跌

482
00:16:33,090 --> 00:16:33,899
跌了还能住

483
00:16:33,899 --> 00:16:34,649
这样的话

484
00:16:34,649 --> 00:16:38,370
这类话常常出自开发商销售或房地产中介之口

485
00:16:38,370 --> 00:16:39,870
影响了无数人的决策

486
00:16:39,870 --> 00:16:42,850
甚至在重复很多遍后成为了真理

487
00:16:42,850 --> 00:16:44,919
这类说法对吗不对

488
00:16:44,919 --> 00:16:46,470
而且错到离谱

489
00:16:46,470 --> 00:16:48,690
刚需自住不在乎房价下跌

490
00:16:48,690 --> 00:16:50,429
是我听过最自欺欺人

491
00:16:50,429 --> 00:16:51,450
最掩耳盗铃

492
00:16:51,450 --> 00:16:53,220
最自我安慰的话术

493
00:16:53,220 --> 00:16:55,019
在谈他为什么错之前

494
00:16:55,019 --> 00:16:57,339
我们可以先问自己两个问题

495
00:16:57,339 --> 00:17:00,308
一如果你觉得明年房价要跌一半

496
00:17:00,308 --> 00:17:01,208
你是刚需

497
00:17:01,208 --> 00:17:02,568
现在买不买

498
00:17:02,568 --> 00:17:05,808
二如果你觉得明年房价要涨一倍

499
00:17:05,808 --> 00:17:06,949
你不是刚需

500
00:17:06,949 --> 00:17:08,269
现在买不买

501
00:17:08,269 --> 00:17:10,230
答案想都不用想

502
00:17:10,230 --> 00:17:11,730
如果觉得要暴涨

503
00:17:11,730 --> 00:17:13,410
正常人即使不是刚需

504
00:17:13,410 --> 00:17:15,138
也会买不赚白不赚

505
00:17:15,138 --> 00:17:16,578
如果觉得房价要跌

506
00:17:16,578 --> 00:17:19,098
那即使是刚需也会继续观望

507
00:17:19,098 --> 00:17:21,318
以便捡到更多的便宜

508
00:17:21,318 --> 00:17:24,078
绝大多数人对房价涨跌的预期

509
00:17:24,078 --> 00:17:27,799
才是决策自己是否要买房的最重要判断因素

510
00:17:27,799 --> 00:17:30,079
这也是为什么一般的商品价格

511
00:17:30,079 --> 00:17:31,680
打折降价才能清仓

512
00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:35,009
但房子却是在房价上涨时需求最大

513
00:17:35,009 --> 00:17:35,849
房价一跌

514
00:17:35,849 --> 00:17:37,200
看房的人都少多了

515
00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:38,539
刚需好像也不见了

516
00:17:38,539 --> 00:17:41,420
可见最大的刚需其实是买房的

517
00:17:41,420 --> 00:17:42,279
财富效应

518
00:17:42,279 --> 00:17:46,420
是人心对房价上涨的恐惧和对财富增长的贪婪

519
00:17:46,420 --> 00:17:49,779
没有任何一个权威的经济学理论中有刚性需求

520
00:17:49,779 --> 00:17:50,579
这么一说

521
00:17:50,579 --> 00:17:51,480
经济学中

522
00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:55,009
只有有效需求和无效需求这两种需求概念

523
00:17:55,009 --> 00:17:57,589
前者代表有需求加有购买力

524
00:17:57,589 --> 00:18:00,259
后者代表有需求加无购买力

525
00:18:00,259 --> 00:18:02,000
比如我想吃一顿火锅

526
00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:02,839
说走就走

527
00:18:02,839 --> 00:18:03,799
而且吃得起

528
00:18:03,799 --> 00:18:05,490
这就是有效需求

529
00:18:05,490 --> 00:18:08,549
但如果我想把帝国大厦整栋楼买下来

530
00:18:08,549 --> 00:18:10,019
每天换一个房间住

531
00:18:10,019 --> 00:18:11,460
显然我根本买不起

532
00:18:11,460 --> 00:18:13,299
所以这就是无效需求

533
00:18:13,299 --> 00:18:15,160
所以从经济学层面看

534
00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:18,339
刚性需求这样的定义完全站不住脚

535
00:18:18,339 --> 00:18:20,650
不同的需求有着不同的弹性

536
00:18:20,650 --> 00:18:22,000
刚需的字面含义

537
00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:24,920
对应的应当是需求弹性为零的需求

538
00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:26,990
即无论价格怎样变化

539
00:18:26,990 --> 00:18:28,970
需求总量都不会变的需求

540
00:18:28,970 --> 00:18:30,140
但日常生活当中

541
00:18:30,140 --> 00:18:31,430
这样的需求极少

542
00:18:31,430 --> 00:18:32,319
如果要举例

543
00:18:32,319 --> 00:18:34,539
大概只有水食物空气了

544
00:18:34,539 --> 00:18:35,349
准确的说

545
00:18:35,349 --> 00:18:37,799
任何情况下的购房都不算刚需

546
00:18:37,799 --> 00:18:38,730
而另一方面

547
00:18:38,730 --> 00:18:39,900
居住是刚需

548
00:18:39,900 --> 00:18:41,519
不代表房子是刚需

549
00:18:41,519 --> 00:18:42,539
交通是刚需

550
00:18:42,539 --> 00:18:44,279
不代表车子是刚需

551
00:18:44,279 --> 00:18:46,740
如果真的非要我来定义一下刚需

552
00:18:46,740 --> 00:18:49,259
我认为那种买房前觉得房价要跌

553
00:18:49,259 --> 00:18:51,880
再多也要买的人才算刚需

554
00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:54,069
但这样的人少之又少

555
00:18:54,069 --> 00:18:55,119
更可笑的是

556
00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:58,380
刚需或自助也成为了一部分人自我安慰的借口

557
00:18:58,380 --> 00:19:00,480
在市场不好或者亏损的情况下

558
00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:02,359
那些曾经嘴巴上说着自己是刚

559
00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:05,329
但内心又怀着一丝投机心态买房的人

560
00:19:05,329 --> 00:19:06,380
如今往往都表示

561
00:19:06,380 --> 00:19:07,789
房子是买来住的

562
00:19:07,789 --> 00:19:08,519
无所谓

563
00:19:08,519 --> 00:19:11,279
但真实的心态恐怕又是另一个样子

564
00:19:11,279 --> 00:19:12,509
如果房价大涨了

565
00:19:12,509 --> 00:19:15,400
纵使他无法将房子在二手房市场进行变现

566
00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:16,930
每天打开房产app

567
00:19:16,930 --> 00:19:18,160
看看上涨的房价

568
00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:19,789
也能偷偷乐出声来

569
00:19:19,789 --> 00:19:20,750
退一步讲

570
00:19:20,750 --> 00:19:22,130
如果明知市场下行

571
00:19:22,130 --> 00:19:24,049
刚需就不可以省点钱

572
00:19:24,049 --> 00:19:25,529
晚点上车吗

573
00:19:25,529 --> 00:19:27,450
从市场参与者心态看

574
00:19:27,450 --> 00:19:29,009
只要还有一批人嘴硬

575
00:19:29,009 --> 00:19:31,559
只要还有一批人对市场抱有很大期待

576
00:19:31,559 --> 00:19:34,180
那么熊市很可能就还没有结束

577
00:19:34,180 --> 00:19:35,559
我们面对房价下跌

578
00:19:35,559 --> 00:19:36,759
不应该自欺欺人

579
00:19:36,759 --> 00:19:38,380
也没必要自我安慰

580
00:19:38,380 --> 00:19:40,150
要做的是吸取经验教训

581
00:19:40,150 --> 00:19:41,049
面向未来

582
00:19:41,049 --> 00:19:42,940
抓住未来趋利避害的一切

583
00:19:42,940 --> 00:19:46,839
可能在面对现实的基础上努力改善生活

584
00:19:46,839 --> 00:19:48,839
五未来怎么走

585
00:19:48,839 --> 00:19:51,960
现在最令人关注的问题是房价到底了吗

586
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:52,799
如果到底了

587
00:19:52,799 --> 00:19:54,240
下一步会不会上涨呢

588
00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:54,900
如果没有

589
00:19:54,900 --> 00:19:56,940
到底下一步还会跌多少

590
00:19:56,940 --> 00:19:57,949
跌多久

591
00:19:57,949 --> 00:19:59,449
我们这里也可以参考

592
00:19:59,449 --> 00:20:02,680
曾经经历过较长时间房价下跌的日本和美国

593
00:20:05,049 --> 00:20:07,920
美国2007年次贷危机引发房价大跌

594
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:10,049
高盛最近做过一个房价对比图

595
00:20:10,049 --> 00:20:10,740
把中国

596
00:20:10,740 --> 00:20:13,019
美国和日本各自房价见顶的时间

597
00:20:13,019 --> 00:20:15,480
拉到同一个横向的时间坐标上

598
00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:18,049
然后对比各自在见顶前后的表现

599
00:20:18,049 --> 00:20:18,950
我们可以看到

600
00:20:18,950 --> 00:20:21,519
我们这波下跌的速度比他们当年更快

601
00:20:21,519 --> 00:20:23,710
但到目前为止时间还很短

602
00:20:23,710 --> 00:20:25,359
我们过去3年的跌幅是美国

603
00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:27,160
2006~2012的一半

604
00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:30,130
是日本1991~2011的1/3

605
00:20:30,130 --> 00:20:32,920
美国和日本当年的结果截然不同

606
00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:35,559
美国在房价下跌约24个季度后

607
00:20:35,559 --> 00:20:37,720
房价开始反弹并连续上涨

608
00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:38,920
然后达到新高

609
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:40,539
而日本却一蹶不振

610
00:20:40,539 --> 00:20:42,119
走出20年下跌

611
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:44,099
美国和日本大相径庭的结果

612
00:20:44,099 --> 00:20:45,839
是基本面差异造成的

613
00:20:45,839 --> 00:20:48,299
他们基本面的差异主要体现在两方面

614
00:20:48,299 --> 00:20:50,460
一美国人口保持稳定增长

615
00:20:50,460 --> 00:20:51,420
新移民涌入

616
00:20:51,420 --> 00:20:52,710
老龄化相对较慢

617
00:20:52,710 --> 00:20:54,750
二美国经济持续增长

618
00:20:54,750 --> 00:20:56,710
创新能力领先全球

619
00:20:56,710 --> 00:20:58,779
在房价下行的大背景下

620
00:20:58,779 --> 00:21:01,539
下一步我们会看到更多刺激措施出现

621
00:21:01,539 --> 00:21:03,250
包括彻底取消一线城市

622
00:21:03,250 --> 00:21:06,069
包括核心区在内的限购都不会太远

623
00:21:06,069 --> 00:21:07,299
我们现在不好预测

624
00:21:07,299 --> 00:21:09,670
中国会是美国路线还是日本路线

625
00:21:09,670 --> 00:21:11,609
或者走出第三条中国路线

626
00:21:11,609 --> 00:21:14,730
但可以预测未来买房一定会越来越容易

627
00:21:14,730 --> 00:21:16,960
而且利率也会不断降低

628
00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:18,940
中国2024年的人口结构

629
00:21:18,940 --> 00:21:21,000
和日本1997年非常相似

630
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:21,690
巧的是

631
00:21:21,690 --> 00:21:22,559
1997年

632
00:21:22,559 --> 00:21:23,819
10年期日本国债

633
00:21:23,819 --> 00:21:26,220
和当下10年期中国国债的收益率

634
00:21:26,220 --> 00:21:27,480
也几乎是一样的

635
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:29,339
都在2.3%

636
00:21:29,339 --> 00:21:32,519
这说明利率下行不只是为了挽救楼市

637
00:21:33,900 --> 00:21:36,380
应对需求和物价低迷的必然选项

638
00:21:36,380 --> 00:21:37,339
在可见的未来

639
00:21:37,339 --> 00:21:39,220
人民币利率还会继续下降

640
00:21:39,220 --> 00:21:41,980
现在10年期国债收益率是2.3%

641
00:21:41,980 --> 00:21:45,279
我们不久后会看到2.0%以内

642
00:21:45,279 --> 00:21:46,750
若不出黑天鹅事件

643
00:21:46,750 --> 00:21:49,119
10年后会降低到1%左右

644
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:52,359
所以未来的人买房一定是越来越简单的

645
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:53,859
因为不仅房价下降了

646
00:21:53,859 --> 00:21:55,359
按揭利率也下降了

647
00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:56,619
结合上文的所有内容

648
00:21:56,619 --> 00:21:58,819
我这里能给出的一家之言是

649
00:21:58,819 --> 00:22:01,250
尽管过去3年房价已经明显下跌

650
00:22:01,250 --> 00:22:03,920
但目前房价还没有真正见底

651
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:05,599
未来下跌可能会放缓

652
00:22:05,599 --> 00:22:08,000
甚至可能会因为更大力度的刺激措施

653
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:09,799
而使得短时间内成交增长

654
00:22:09,799 --> 00:22:10,609
房价企稳

655
00:22:10,609 --> 00:22:13,200
但很难改变中长期下行趋势

656
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,720
而过去3年房价之所以会下降这么快

657
00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:16,769
我不感到惊讶

658
00:22:16,769 --> 00:22:18,390
我认为它不是一种下跌

659
00:22:18,390 --> 00:22:20,000
而是一种价格重置

660
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:21,799
因为中国经济全球化发展

661
00:22:21,799 --> 00:22:24,500
世界格局也正在以空前的速度改变

662
00:22:24,500 --> 00:22:25,640
甚至重置中

663
00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:26,420
懂得都懂

664
00:22:26,420 --> 00:22:27,950
这里不做赘述

665
00:22:27,950 --> 00:22:30,890
建议最后针对楼市和投资方向

666
00:22:30,890 --> 00:22:32,940
这里给出几条比较明确的建议

667
00:22:32,940 --> 00:22:34,680
一对于买房决策

668
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:36,390
可以先给自己做一个假设

669
00:22:36,390 --> 00:22:37,710
假设他会继续下跌

670
00:22:37,710 --> 00:22:38,579
这种情况下

671
00:22:38,579 --> 00:22:39,839
如果你还是要买房

672
00:22:39,839 --> 00:22:40,519
那就买

673
00:22:40,519 --> 00:22:42,319
除此之外一律谨慎

674
00:22:42,319 --> 00:22:44,000
二降低预期

675
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:44,930
谨慎投资

676
00:22:44,930 --> 00:22:47,049
坚持少输就是赢的原则

677
00:22:47,049 --> 00:22:47,950
趋利避害

678
00:22:47,950 --> 00:22:50,710
内外兼修的进行投资和消费方向

679
00:22:50,710 --> 00:22:52,420
请参考之前的两期内容

680
00:22:52,420 --> 00:22:55,638
一经济下行期怎样让生活更好

681
00:22:55,638 --> 00:22:58,779
22024年怎样继续避坑

682
00:22:58,779 --> 00:23:01,809
三在租金回报率达到按揭利率之前

683
00:23:01,809 --> 00:23:04,279
再也不考虑以买房作为投资

684
00:23:04,279 --> 00:23:05,539
四锻炼身体

685
00:23:05,539 --> 00:23:09,049
帮助自己熬过困难期并提高生活品质

686
00:23:09,049 --> 00:23:10,309
对任何人而言

687
00:23:10,309 --> 00:23:11,329
只有坚守常识

688
00:23:11,329 --> 00:23:12,109
尊重市场

689
00:23:12,109 --> 00:23:13,200
敬畏客观规律

690
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:14,640
才能立于不败之地

691
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:16,740
否则市场就会给出惩罚

692
00:23:16,740 --> 00:23:18,960
就会像过去3年那样

693
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:20,430
如果你喜欢本期视频

694
00:23:20,430 --> 00:23:21,839
希望可以点赞关注

695
00:23:21,839 --> 00:23:22,589
支持一波

696
00:23:22,589 --> 00:23:24,859
这将对我有很大的帮助

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