【tastylive】大空头迈克尔·伯里11亿做空，SpaceX是崩盘引线？

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迈克尔·伯里本周发布消息称，SpaceX

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OpenAI和Anthropic联手可能筹集的资金超过四百四十亿美元

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六家科技IPO在千禧年前的崩盘前筹集了两百多亿美元

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SpaceX单独可能筹集750亿美元

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规模是互联网泡沫时期最大IPO的七倍

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与此同时

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伯里现在持有超过一点

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超过一百亿美元的做空押注

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主要针对Palantir

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而巴菲特手中持有近四百亿美元现金

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但多方认为这有所不同

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AI公司实际上产生真实营收

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高盛将标普目标价上调至八千点，盈利仍在增长

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纳斯达克持续刷新新高

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所以这里需要计算：AI是否正在制造市场历史上最大的流动性抽水

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还是这只是新一轮真实技术繁荣的阶段

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让我们看看本期《期权数学检查》

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现在我们在 tasty 平台，标普指数强劲上涨

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一路跌至6350点

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目前位于7560点

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嗯

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这里有几件我认为非常有趣的事情

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首先

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是的

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我们确实有几个疯狂的IPO即将来临，SpaceX最为关键

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我认为仅从规模来看

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其规模绝对令人震惊

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这里存在多重因素

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公司进行IPO

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通常需等待一年才能加入标普500指数

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SpaceX即将上市

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流动性将极强

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将可交易

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期权市场可能在IPO后几天启动

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但真正有趣的是

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有团体游说缩短新IPO加入标普的十二个月锁定期至六个月

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所以情况可能变化

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这将非常惊人

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但无论如何

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这确实

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令我感到 fascinating

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标普500指数过去十年的成分股更替如此频繁

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已有约260家公司退出并加入标普500

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成分股更替规模巨大

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过去十年更替显著

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这让我感到意外

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你可能以为标普500指数

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就是蓝筹股或长期存在的股票

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但实际情况并非如此

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是的

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尽管SpaceX可能引发类似流动性事件或市场抽血效应

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向SpaceX和Anthropic注入了大量资金

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我认为这不会真正影响市场熔断

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或导致市场下跌

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或制造这种真空状态

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我们可能长期横盘震荡

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当我们分析当前形势时

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人工智能热潮仍在持续

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这一趋势仍在继续

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硬件股股价飙升至月球

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软件股今日强劲反弹

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微软和Snowflake等产品直线拉升

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市场仍在持续攀升

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另一个需要关注的是波动率期货

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所以VIX并非VIX

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不是FIX

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VIX指数处于156点

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这非常低

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去年12月曾跌至13.5点

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随后大幅飙升至30多点

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但目前已回落至

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你知道的

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中个位数区间

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历史上这种低波动率聚集

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就像这里显示的

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导致市场稳步上行

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并持续右移

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另一个需要强调的重点是观察波动率期货

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当波动率期货呈现陡峭正向仓差

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就像现在看到的

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查看M合约18点

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下月活跃合约N在220点

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这形成2点正向仓差

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接下来的两个周期

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这种结构延续至V合约

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V合约位于2217点

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目前

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所有合约的波动率市场

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波动率市场表明当前无重大风险

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不会引发市场震荡

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当然会有红色交易日

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当然会有短期波动

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总体趋势

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当波动率极低时

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且远期曲线呈正向仓差

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市场将呈现向上右移趋势

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目前标普已突破7500点

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道指5000点

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这些分析师预测

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年初目标仅几个月前

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所以像标普指数中的八千点实际上现在处于预期范围内

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直到年底和最后

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但说到最后如果我们假设扮演魔鬼代言人

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来看看原油市场的情况

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我认为原油市场正在告诉你当前的市场格局

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比如对于战争局势

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我是说我们不断看到头条新闻

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停火协议可能即将达成

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一切都会结束

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但目前来看

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没有任何实质性进展

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但期货市场显示情况可能正在变化

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所以我们看到战争最激烈时

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在原油市场出现了陡峭的backwardation现象

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这与vault期货形成完全相反的情况

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我们最终合约出现了约15点的backwardation

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相对于下一个活跃周期

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当前合约显示约为85点

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而目前最终合约仅出现2点backwardation

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这与过去几周的情况相比非常狭窄

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我们看到近期合约在90区间

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中90区间

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一直上涨到100

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现在回落至89

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并且市场正在逐渐趋于平缓

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值得注意的是

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原油价格仍维持高位

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一直延续到2027年5月

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但再次强调

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backwardation逐渐收窄

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表明当前一切指向可能平静的夏季

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市场或将温和上涨

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而下月即将上市的IPO

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预计在6月12日左右

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SpaceX的IPO计划将在那时启动

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不会对市场造成太大冲击

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但情况可能变化

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真的

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如果我们综合分析标普指数

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到年底时

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12月31日周期

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有趣的是

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7100点下方有450点虚值空间

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该合约有3.2%的实值概率

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而看涨方面以8000点整数位

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这是一个漂亮整数

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实值概率反而更高

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同样虚值450点

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所以你怎么看？请在评论区留言

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