【Couch Investor】甲骨文股价跳水12%！AI赛道大变天

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大家好，欢迎回到今天的视频

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那么在今天的视频中

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我们有几个需要讨论的话题

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甲骨文的财报及会议中的评论

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甲骨文在录制时的股价

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目前下跌约9%到10%

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现在你可能会想，甲骨文下跌9%-10%意味着

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其他可能像新云或低价股也会同步下跌

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但并非如此

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现在它们全都上涨了

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盘前交易时段

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我们还需要讨论关于Open的新头条新闻

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AI并考虑降价

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我们开始更多讨论新模型的推出

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它们更智能了

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但需要消耗大量代币才能获得结果

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现在我们有这些头条新闻，我还会展示其他内容

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人们已经开始猜测

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他们为何这么做

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这是单纯为了扩大市场份额吗

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对抗Entropic

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为IPO做准备

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他们为何这么做

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当开始降价时

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人们可能会说

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嗯

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我以为需求巨大

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如果需求巨大

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那么

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你拥有定价权

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现在发生了什么

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我们将在今天的视频中详细讨论

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还有更多内容，如果你喜欢这类视频

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你知道该怎么做

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点击所有按钮

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你会感激的

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如果你想进一步支持我

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在描述区和置顶评论区点赞前10名

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现在最好的互动

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或前往完整账号

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天啊

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投资者

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非常感谢

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这就是我们看到的情况

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盘前交易时段

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当视频上线时

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市场可能已经开盘

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但这是盘前数据

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你可以清楚看到

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甲骨文下跌9.6%

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4%

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这里其余部分昨天是绿色的

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尽管昨天市场再次出现大量绿色

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头条驱动型市场

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因此不要感到意外

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即使今天我们看到这样的盘前绿色行情

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甚至今天红色可能卷土重来

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卷土重来

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可能像昨晚纽约尼克斯队的惊人表现

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我先从这个说起

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因为这将引出Oracle财报

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《华尔街日报》报道了以下内容

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OpenAI考虑大幅降价

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为与Entropic争夺用户

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公司可能降低令牌价格

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核心利润单位

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AI成本

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不过讨论仍在进行中

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这些都是传言和报道

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萨姆·阿尔特曼有句话

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不久前他曾说

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我认为我们会有很多方法

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我们可以帮助用户以更少支出获得更多价值

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当然ChatGPT确实有ChatGPT

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去尝试

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我认为大约八美元每月

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但这属于广告支持层级

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好的这支持一个层级

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但针对

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比如不需要编程的人

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他们只需要

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也许基础功能

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CGPT

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但没有任何极端限制

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我认为这个定价层级现在合理

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这个故事让我想起这张图

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我们昨晚已经展示过

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如你所见

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令牌价格指数正在下跌

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过去几年一直在下跌

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Citadel表示采用率不再关乎前沿模型的能力

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而是价格因素

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令牌指数近期下跌可能反映向低价模型的转变

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而这位用户说的最到位

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对于普通用户模型而言

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有好有足够好

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这非常正确

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没错

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专业用户

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程序员

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等等等等

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他们可能想要最好的

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但即使今天我们也从Uber那里听到过

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Uber绝非业余团队

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没错

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Uber的员工

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工程师

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随便吧

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他们想要

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最好的中的最佳

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但即便是最好的中的最佳

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也不会愿意在半年内烧光全年预算

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因此我不惊讶我们可能即将达到临界点

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在定价方面

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是的

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模型

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正如我们所说

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从一开始

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LMS系统

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这属于大宗商品

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这属于大宗商品

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关键在于生态系统

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更多关注生态系统

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而非那个聊天界面

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因为最终所有功能都会足够智能供普通用户使用

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足够智能满足普通用户需求

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对于想要开发产品的公司

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服务

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一个生态系统

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他们当然不会满足于足够好

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他们想要最佳中的最佳

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现在

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幸运的是这让我想起最近的采访

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以及Nebu的联合创始人

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左边这位看起来像老版亚当·桑德勒

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但并非如此，他被问及Nebulous的风险

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Nebulous面临哪些风险

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对于他们

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未来不成功

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他说的重点不在竞争

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而在整合问题

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或许只有少数巨头垄断市场

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请听

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等等

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嗯

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整体整合趋势

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是的

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我认为Nebos的主要威胁是

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世界将过度集中化

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就像我们讨论的那样

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我们力求多元化发展

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就像我们试图解决

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不同客户的各类问题

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并拥有不同客户和不同层级

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如果最终会进入一个我不知道的世界

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三五位超级模特

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超级公司

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超级大国掌控世界

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或许像那些公司

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或许未来会需要

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只是帮助他们

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或许在物理层面满足需求

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嗯

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因此我认为总体来看整合是我们的三大重点

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世界更加多元化

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作为企业我们更需要

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你认为这可能发生吗我们正在看到

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在回答前我们看到价值向越来越少的玩家集中

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我希望这很清楚

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有点像优步贝索斯的例子

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没错

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如果Waymo和特斯拉

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如果Waymo和特斯拉

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占据九成以上的市场份额

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你就不再需要优步平台

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但如果全球有十到二十家自动驾驶公司

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就不需要中间的优步公司

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因为我不需要下载十到二十个应用

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我会使用那个应用

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我知道哪个应用分布最优

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知道时间最短的

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等等

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这与模糊科技类似

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如果我们拥有大量

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假设几个前沿模型

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然后大量低价模型

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开源模型

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是的

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模糊科技将赢得Token工厂并大获成功

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而我们现在看到

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每代币价格极高

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但结果提升有限

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所以是的

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人们会说你知道吗

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好吧

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不错

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这个模型非常出色

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但对我来说

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我不需要完美

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我需要足够好的模型，而足够好可能指的是开源模型

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也许现在人们会开始关注更便宜的模型

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结果仍然能满足他们的需求

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这样合并的风险会降低

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我们看到的是去集中的相反趋势

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我希望这不会成为商业现实

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我认为这对我们更好

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对人类而言也是如此

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对你和我来说

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世界仍将保持原样

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将以不同方式保持多元化

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嗯 嗯

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我在这里比较乐观

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我认为有很多人想独立构建事物

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比如说

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有很多人需要尝试并创造新事物

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这会自然形成压力并创造更多元的世界

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希望我们仍能保持 不要忘记价格因素

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如果成本变得太高

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小型初创公司

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有创意的人

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可能不会创立自己的公司

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因为现在我有代币

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每周花费数万美元

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我现在还没有收入

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为什么我要创建什么

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但如果每代币价格下降

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同时效果依然良好

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你会看到大量

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更多代币生成

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但价格更低

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这也意味着更多公司

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更多产品

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更多服务将被创造

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像这样的公司

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像核心部分

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等等

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将在其中胜出

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当然这里的大公司

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现在是预言机

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预言机昨日发布公告

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股价下跌近10%

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正如我们所见

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你可能会说

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哦

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这肯定是个糟糕的季度

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但 backlog达6380亿美元

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同比增长360%

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增长3%

249
00:08:59,058 --> 00:09:02,860
我认为从上季度增长了850亿美元

250
00:09:02,860 --> 00:09:04,580
收入超出预期

251
00:09:04,580 --> 00:09:05,120
无差距

252
00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:06,019
Ppps超出预期

253
00:09:06,019 --> 00:09:06,820
云业务收入

254
00:09:06,820 --> 00:09:07,960
在那里略有不及

255
00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:09,120
但仍同比增长四%

256
00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:11,220
同比增长七个百分点

257
00:09:11,220 --> 00:09:13,179
软件业务出现不及预期

258
00:09:13,179 --> 00:09:18,039
我认为这是近几年最弱的一个季度

259
00:09:18,039 --> 00:09:21,840
但收入仍同比增长21%

260
00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:22,919
待交付订单

261
00:09:22,919 --> 00:09:25,019
6380亿美元

262
00:09:25,019 --> 00:09:29,480
在Q四签订了670亿美元的新AI基础设施合同

263
00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:30,840
仅Q四

264
00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:33,440
四大客户各超80亿美元

265
00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:34,820
750亿美元

266
00:09:34,820 --> 00:09:38,019
累计预付或客户自供

267
00:09:38,019 --> 00:09:38,679
GPU

268
00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:40,820
允许自带加速器的模式

269
00:09:40,820 --> 00:09:42,600
且不损害利润率

270
00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:46,220
仅12%在12个月内转化为收入

271
00:09:46,220 --> 00:09:49,539
34%在13-36个月

272
00:09:49,539 --> 00:09:51,779
两者预计都将加速

273
00:09:51,779 --> 00:09:53,820
这里最大的看点是

274
00:09:53,820 --> 00:09:54,360
好的

275
00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:56,509
我们现在看到收入增长

276
00:09:56,509 --> 00:09:58,809
看到巨额债务堆

277
00:09:58,809 --> 00:10:01,340
今年债务也在增加

278
00:10:01,340 --> 00:10:05,360
如何快速确认所有收入

279
00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:05,820
嗯

280
00:10:05,820 --> 00:10:08,059
他们刚公布了这些数据

281
00:10:08,059 --> 00:10:10,960
这就是市场关注的核心

282
00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:13,200
我们仍会反复追问

283
00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:16,460
何时才能真正加速增长

284
00:10:16,460 --> 00:10:18,789
并传导至利润

285
00:10:18,789 --> 00:10:20,769
现在看自由现金流

286
00:10:20,769 --> 00:10:22,529
几乎为零

287
00:10:22,529 --> 00:10:25,700
但债务规模确实存在

288
00:10:25,700 --> 00:10:27,220
至于其他业务

289
00:10:27,220 --> 00:10:30,659
云基础设施同比增长93%

290
00:10:30,659 --> 00:10:34,460
多云数据库同比增长404%

291
00:10:34,460 --> 00:10:37,490
预订量增长325%

292
00:10:37,490 --> 00:10:40,210
云应用业务增长10%

293
00:10:40,210 --> 00:10:45,750
GPU续费率3.5万台中92%续约

294
00:10:45,750 --> 00:10:48,970
剩余容量同季转售

295
00:10:48,970 --> 00:10:49,490
当然

296
00:10:49,490 --> 00:10:51,669
再次讨论

297
00:10:51,669 --> 00:10:53,590
利用率非常高

298
00:10:53,590 --> 00:10:54,289
等等

299
00:10:54,289 --> 00:10:59,200
但何时会变得过于昂贵

300
00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:00,700
对，他们有九十七点

301
00:11:00,700 --> 00:11:02,940
五百分比的GPU利用率

302
00:11:02,940 --> 00:11:03,539
呃

303
00:11:03,539 --> 00:11:04,269
全球范围内

304
00:11:04,269 --> 00:11:04,769
所以

305
00:11:04,769 --> 00:11:06,590
如果价格变得太高

306
00:11:06,590 --> 00:11:09,710
虽然现在我认为这些公司

307
00:11:09,710 --> 00:11:12,649
价格真的不是大问题

308
00:11:12,649 --> 00:11:16,539
但最终对小公司会有影响

309
00:11:16,539 --> 00:11:17,659
至于全年情况

310
00:11:17,659 --> 00:11:18,860
这基本就是现状

311
00:11:18,860 --> 00:11:20,419
收入增长了百分之十七

312
00:11:20,419 --> 00:11:21,179
同比去年

313
00:11:21,179 --> 00:11:22,399
云业务收入增长三

314
00:11:22,399 --> 00:11:23,639
百分之九的年增长率

315
00:11:23,639 --> 00:11:25,080
经营现金流增长五

316
00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:25,720
百分之四

317
00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:27,480
同比去年达到三十二亿美元

318
00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:29,519
但自由现金流为负

319
00:11:29,519 --> 00:11:30,519
二十三点

320
00:11:30,519 --> 00:11:32,299
七亿美元

321
00:11:32,299 --> 00:11:32,779
当然

322
00:11:32,779 --> 00:11:35,000
这是因为资本支出

323
00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:36,720
关于未来指引

324
00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:39,379
财年二七预计九十亿美元

325
00:11:39,379 --> 00:11:41,519
即他们当前的财年

326
00:11:41,519 --> 00:11:42,720
收入已确认

327
00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:47,519
每股收益上调至八美元五美分（Q1）

328
00:11:47,519 --> 00:11:49,419
预计全年收入增长二

329
00:11:49,419 --> 00:11:51,220
七至二九个百分点

330
00:11:51,220 --> 00:11:52,779
云业务增长五

331
00:11:54,779 --> 00:11:59,278
全年每股收益增长十七至二十个百分点

332
00:11:59,278 --> 00:12:00,658
这相当于约三

333
00:12:00,658 --> 00:12:02,739
四个百分点的年同比增长

334
00:12:02,739 --> 00:12:08,120
他们预计云业务将在下半年加速增长

335
00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:09,700
关于长期目标

336
00:12:09,700 --> 00:12:12,340
直至财年二三

337
00:12:12,340 --> 00:12:17,779
预计每股收益年复合增长率三一至二八

338
00:12:17,779 --> 00:12:19,500
KR融资计划

339
00:12:19,500 --> 00:12:22,200
或许这就是股价下跌的原因之一

340
00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:22,940
财年

341
00:12:22,940 --> 00:12:23,940
二七融资计划

342
00:12:23,940 --> 00:12:27,039
总计约四十亿美元债务加股权

343
00:12:27,039 --> 00:12:30,399
包括已宣布的二十亿美元ATM股权

344
00:12:30,399 --> 00:12:35,299
并预计二六年日历年内无新增债务

345
00:12:35,299 --> 00:12:36,940
他们还提到以下内容

346
00:12:36,940 --> 00:12:38,440
资本支出增加

347
00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:42,980
非因零部件价格变动，主要与时间安排相关

348
00:12:42,980 --> 00:12:43,720
我的工作

349
00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:44,600
这是黏土

350
00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:47,740
这里是为了更快地花掉这笔钱

351
00:12:47,740 --> 00:12:49,500
所以我可以提升收入

352
00:12:49,500 --> 00:12:50,279
有时候

353
00:12:50,279 --> 00:12:51,179
所以这里又来了

354
00:12:51,179 --> 00:12:53,529
正在讨论收入确认

355
00:12:53,529 --> 00:12:55,730
关于内存成本通胀

356
00:12:55,730 --> 00:12:58,970
仅固定价格合同，成本被锁定

357
00:12:58,970 --> 00:13:01,769
浮动成本机制在更远期启动

358
00:13:01,769 --> 00:13:04,250
这里的利润率得到保护

359
00:13:04,250 --> 00:13:05,590
总的来说

360
00:13:05,590 --> 00:13:08,169
我不觉得这里有什么可挑剔的

361
00:13:08,169 --> 00:13:08,409
是的

362
00:13:08,409 --> 00:13:09,100
你可以说

363
00:13:09,100 --> 00:13:09,419
好的

364
00:13:09,419 --> 00:13:11,139
资本支出在增加对吧

365
00:13:11,139 --> 00:13:13,580
七十亿美元对比五十亿美元

366
00:13:13,580 --> 00:13:15,639
预计更多债务

367
00:13:15,639 --> 00:13:16,419
等等

368
00:13:16,419 --> 00:13:18,320
但所有这些都让他们

369
00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:20,259
可能更快确认更多收入

370
00:13:20,259 --> 00:13:21,159
更快增长

371
00:13:21,159 --> 00:13:22,039
等等

372
00:13:22,039 --> 00:13:22,990
所以是的

373
00:13:22,990 --> 00:13:25,850
这个季度没什么可说的

374
00:13:25,850 --> 00:13:29,230
财报发布时间可能可以更好

375
00:13:29,230 --> 00:13:30,269
但这不是

376
00:13:30,269 --> 00:13:31,250
这不是他们的责任

377
00:13:31,250 --> 00:13:31,849
当然

378
00:13:31,849 --> 00:13:34,649
如果我们看看其他新云业务

379
00:13:34,649 --> 00:13:36,188
核心礁下降了2.1%

380
00:13:36,188 --> 00:13:37,009
1%

381
00:13:37,009 --> 00:13:38,539
涅比斯下跌0.3%

382
00:13:38,539 --> 00:13:42,139
其余基本持平或上涨1%左右

383
00:13:42,139 --> 00:13:45,609
科里夫目前股价93.6美元

384
00:13:45,609 --> 00:13:49,769
这是真正受甲骨文动向影响的

385
00:13:49,769 --> 00:13:51,179
在我看来

386
00:13:51,179 --> 00:13:52,379
科里夫涅比斯

387
00:13:52,379 --> 00:13:55,399
这也是英伟达投资这些业务的原因

388
00:13:55,399 --> 00:13:57,669
与这些业务紧密合作

389
00:13:57,669 --> 00:13:59,730
詹森不久前在台上谈到了这两项业务

390
00:13:59,730 --> 00:14:02,610
实际上不久前在台上

391
00:14:02,610 --> 00:14:05,038
我认为它们会非常成功

392
00:14:05,038 --> 00:14:08,519
当然核心编织是不同规模的公司

393
00:14:08,519 --> 00:14:09,778
市场在我看来

394
00:14:09,778 --> 00:14:11,499
纯粹在等待下一季度

395
00:14:11,499 --> 00:14:15,110
听到或看到利润率见底

396
00:14:15,110 --> 00:14:18,519
当这种情况发生时将开始回升

397
00:14:18,519 --> 00:14:22,440
我认为核心礁也会经历同样的增长

398
00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:24,370
最后是NVIDIA

399
00:14:24,370 --> 00:14:27,370
这与甲骨文或其他任何新贵无关

400
00:14:27,370 --> 00:14:29,490
实际上是在谈论软件公司

401
00:14:29,490 --> 00:14:30,889
我的意思是

402
00:14:30,889 --> 00:14:34,370
Altima资本的Ball在这里发布了这条内容

403
00:14:34,370 --> 00:14:38,960
这是云软件净新增年同比增长汇总

404
00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:40,159
看看最后一个季度

405
00:14:40,159 --> 00:14:41,500
这次成功的程度如何

406
00:14:41,500 --> 00:14:45,399
这是多年来表现最好的季度

407
00:14:45,399 --> 00:14:48,000
我不确定他在关注哪些公司

408
00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:48,539
但他说道

409
00:14:48,539 --> 00:14:54,789
这张图表包含约五十家公开上市、报告ARR或订阅收入的公司

410
00:14:54,789 --> 00:14:55,490
好的

411
00:14:55,490 --> 00:14:59,840
然后他指出尽管整体净新增额很高

412
00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:06,340
它们新增了负ARR

413
00:15:06,340 --> 00:15:12,720
这是过去五年中季度环比下滑公司比例第二高的

414
00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:13,480
好的

415
00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:14,139
只是小部分

416
00:15:14,139 --> 00:15:15,399
但总体而言

417
00:15:15,399 --> 00:15:17,710
如果看这个汇总数据

418
00:15:17,710 --> 00:15:19,549
表现非常出色

419
00:15:19,549 --> 00:15:20,429
表现非常出色

420
00:15:20,429 --> 00:15:23,889
我对这些担忧认为被夸大了

421
00:15:23,889 --> 00:15:26,789
然后联系到视频开头部分

422
00:15:26,789 --> 00:15:27,779
再次强调

423
00:15:27,779 --> 00:15:29,740
代币价格下跌

424
00:15:29,740 --> 00:15:31,639
模型成为大宗商品

425
00:15:31,639 --> 00:15:32,820
那你觉得

426
00:15:32,820 --> 00:15:34,059
什么是大宗商品

427
00:15:34,059 --> 00:15:39,828
一个拥有庞大生态和海量数据的巨型软件公司

428
00:15:39,828 --> 00:15:41,188
猜猜他们能做什么

429
00:15:41,188 --> 00:15:43,629
他们可以用这种大宗商品壮大自身业务

430
00:15:43,629 --> 00:15:49,519
帮助客户提升所提供价值

431
00:15:49,679 --> 00:15:51,360
这就是关键分歧点

432
00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:53,039
总的来说这就是我的全部观点

433
00:15:53,039 --> 00:15:53,679
在今天的视频中

434
00:15:53,679 --> 00:15:57,480
我非常期待OpenAI和Entropic

435
00:15:57,480 --> 00:15:59,279
何时上市

436
00:15:59,279 --> 00:16:04,649
因为届时我们可以观察两大巨头的业务

437
00:16:04,649 --> 00:16:05,169
在我看来

438
00:16:05,169 --> 00:16:06,049
在AI风险领域

439
00:16:06,049 --> 00:16:08,009
如果他们突然消失

440
00:16:08,009 --> 00:16:12,049
我认为所有股票将下跌50%

441
00:16:12,049 --> 00:16:16,849
因为这也是推动市场大幅上涨的原因

442
00:16:16,849 --> 00:16:20,129
我将非常期待研究这些公司

443
00:16:20,129 --> 00:16:24,049
它们可能以万亿估值上市

444
00:16:24,049 --> 00:16:28,980
至少我们了解这类业务运作方式

445
00:16:28,980 --> 00:16:35,870
这对AI牛市下一阶段至关重要

446
00:16:35,870 --> 00:16:36,629
目前

447
00:16:36,629 --> 00:16:37,590
甲骨文再次

448
00:16:37,590 --> 00:16:38,509
不错的季度表现

449
00:16:38,509 --> 00:16:39,849
良好的指引数据

450
00:16:39,849 --> 00:16:41,688
市场过度反应

451
00:16:41,688 --> 00:16:42,528
但你知道的

452
00:16:42,528 --> 00:16:45,528
目前市场受头条新闻驱动

453
00:16:45,528 --> 00:16:46,568
我讲的差不多了

454
00:16:46,568 --> 00:16:47,288
在今天的视频中

455
00:16:47,288 --> 00:16:48,539
我们下期再见

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