BV1qU9mBYEk7 · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:00,320 Hello 2 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:00,860 大家好 3 00:00:00,860 --> 00:00:02,000 欢迎回到阳光财经 4 00:00:02,000 --> 00:00:02,779 我是SUNY 5 00:00:02,779 --> 00:00:06,019 今天是2026年4月28号星期二 6 00:00:06,019 --> 00:00:07,940 今天大盘小幅整理 7 00:00:07,940 --> 00:00:10,419 标普指数下跌35.11点 8 00:00:10,419 --> 00:00:12,119 跌幅0.49% 9 00:00:12,119 --> 00:00:14,150 收盘是一个小阳线 10 00:00:14,150 --> 00:00:17,530 这种下跌的小阳线说明日内交易中 11 00:00:17,530 --> 00:00:19,539 多头还是占了上风 12 00:00:19,539 --> 00:00:23,320 标普指数日K线图上涨趋势保持良好 13 00:00:23,320 --> 00:00:26,120 只要不出现中等级别以上的阴线 14 00:00:26,120 --> 00:00:29,750 就还可以继续以慢牛上涨的节奏来看待 15 00:00:29,750 --> 00:00:31,230 过去这么多年 16 00:00:31,230 --> 00:00:33,250 标普指数只要不是暴跌 17 00:00:33,250 --> 00:00:34,670 就是慢慢上涨 18 00:00:34,670 --> 00:00:36,689 预测是相对容易的 19 00:00:40,310 --> 00:00:42,130 跌幅0.9% 20 00:00:42,130 --> 00:00:45,689 纳指即将突破2万5000点整数大关 21 00:00:45,689 --> 00:00:48,899 前的犹豫并不会改变最终突破的结果 22 00:00:48,899 --> 00:00:50,799 那只都到这个位置了 23 00:00:50,799 --> 00:00:53,100 大概率是要突破2万5的 24 00:00:53,100 --> 00:00:56,140 今明两天是美联储议息会议 25 00:00:56,140 --> 00:00:59,159 预计这一次的决议应该是按兵不动 26 00:00:59,159 --> 00:01:03,348 关键在于会议声明之后讲话的态度和倾向 27 00:01:03,348 --> 00:01:05,209 如果不出意外的话 28 00:01:05,209 --> 00:01:08,009 明天下午02:30是鲍威尔最后一次 29 00:01:10,549 --> 00:01:12,829 鲍威尔2018年上台 30 00:01:12,829 --> 00:01:14,469 2026年离任 31 00:01:14,469 --> 00:01:16,870 是美联储历史上少数几位 32 00:01:19,510 --> 00:01:20,909 在第一任期 33 00:01:20,909 --> 00:01:22,840 他从耶伦手上接盘 34 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:26,319 延续前任渐进式加息和缩表政策 35 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:29,090 正好遇上川普第一次搞贸易战 36 00:01:29,090 --> 00:01:30,609 到了2019年 37 00:01:30,609 --> 00:01:32,409 鲍威尔由鹰转鸽 38 00:01:32,409 --> 00:01:33,750 开始降息 39 00:01:33,750 --> 00:01:36,799 2020年碰到百年一遇的疫情 40 00:01:36,799 --> 00:01:39,519 鲍威尔直接将利率降到了零 41 00:01:39,519 --> 00:01:42,819 并且启动了前所未有的量化宽松政策 42 00:01:42,819 --> 00:01:45,659 导致了当年一次巨大的V型反转 43 00:01:45,659 --> 00:01:47,840 美股大涨了好几年 44 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:49,519 大水漫灌之下 45 00:01:49,519 --> 00:01:50,890 通胀飙升 46 00:01:50,890 --> 00:01:52,930 但是在2021年 47 00:01:52,930 --> 00:01:54,069 鲍威尔却说 48 00:01:54,069 --> 00:01:55,670 通胀是暂时的 49 00:01:55,670 --> 00:01:58,349 错过了调控通胀最佳时间 50 00:01:58,349 --> 00:02:00,769 于是美联储在2022年 51 00:02:00,769 --> 00:02:03,659 开启40年来最激进的加息 52 00:02:03,659 --> 00:02:04,719 那一年啊 53 00:02:04,719 --> 00:02:05,799 连续加息 54 00:02:05,799 --> 00:02:09,919 有时一次FOMC会议就加息75个基点 55 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:12,120 好在他即将下台之际 56 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:14,340 美国通胀水平还算温和 57 00:02:14,340 --> 00:02:15,919 超过政策目标 58 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:17,879 但没有恶化迹象 59 00:02:21,930 --> 00:02:24,650 那么鲍威尔谢幕讲话中 60 00:02:24,650 --> 00:02:26,680 他会不会砸盘呢 61 00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:30,379 江湖人称美联储传声筒的记者nick 62 00:02:30,379 --> 00:02:31,199 按惯例 63 00:02:31,199 --> 00:02:34,439 在议息会议的第一天会发布一些内幕消息 64 00:02:34,439 --> 00:02:36,259 今天nick指出 65 00:02:36,259 --> 00:02:37,400 因伊朗战争 66 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:41,530 能源冲击等多重因素扰动滞胀风险升温 67 00:02:41,530 --> 00:02:43,129 美联储大概率维持 68 00:02:43,129 --> 00:02:45,370 3.5%到3.75%的 69 00:02:45,370 --> 00:02:46,810 利率水平不变 70 00:02:46,810 --> 00:02:51,110 但是内部正在就措施调整和降息路径 71 00:02:51,110 --> 00:02:52,610 展开激烈博弈 72 00:02:52,610 --> 00:02:55,830 美联储官员正纠结于就业增长疲软 73 00:02:55,830 --> 00:02:58,969 是否夸大了劳动力市场的脆弱性 74 00:02:58,969 --> 00:03:02,469 解释起来就是说就业数据增长放缓 75 00:03:02,469 --> 00:03:05,030 但市场可能并没有那么差 76 00:03:05,030 --> 00:03:09,289 美联储部分官员不再认为今年应该重启降息 77 00:03:09,289 --> 00:03:13,490 最后议息会议声明是不是要把这件事写在纸上 78 00:03:13,490 --> 00:03:15,620 明确不再考虑降息 79 00:03:15,620 --> 00:03:16,580 删除一句 80 00:03:16,580 --> 00:03:18,060 之前一直存在的话 81 00:03:18,060 --> 00:03:22,460 就是下一次政策行动更可能是降息而非加息 82 00:03:22,460 --> 00:03:25,889 这样的表述有可能会在明天的生命中消失 83 00:03:26,930 --> 00:03:28,349 这一次的议息会议 84 00:03:28,349 --> 00:03:31,229 降息不降息的已经没有什么悬念了 85 00:03:31,229 --> 00:03:33,189 市场将更加关注的是 86 00:03:33,189 --> 00:03:37,439 声明和讲话中有没有暗示降息结束的表示 87 00:03:37,439 --> 00:03:38,439 如果有 88 00:03:38,439 --> 00:03:40,400 那应该会短线下跌 89 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:42,919 今天有一则消息震动的市场 90 00:03:42,919 --> 00:03:45,469 那就是阿联酋退出欧佩克 91 00:03:45,469 --> 00:03:49,250 石油输出国组织于1960年在巴格达成立 92 00:03:49,250 --> 00:03:50,409 在7年后 93 00:03:50,409 --> 00:03:52,750 阿联酋加入了这一组织 94 00:03:52,750 --> 00:03:55,050 欧佩克统一生产配额 95 00:03:55,050 --> 00:03:56,930 调节全球石油供应 96 00:03:56,930 --> 00:03:59,360 防止石油价格大幅波动 97 00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:02,060 实际上就是联手操纵油价 98 00:04:02,060 --> 00:04:04,270 保障成员国的收入 99 00:04:04,270 --> 00:04:05,750 到了2016年 100 00:04:05,750 --> 00:04:08,490 欧佩克拉上了俄罗斯等十个国家 101 00:04:08,490 --> 00:04:10,539 变成了欧佩克家 102 00:04:10,539 --> 00:04:15,240 这个组织通过增产减产决定来影响油价 103 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:18,860 阿联酋宣布5月1号退出石油输出国组织 104 00:04:18,860 --> 00:04:20,300 准备单飞 105 00:04:20,300 --> 00:04:21,439 近年来 106 00:04:21,439 --> 00:04:23,600 阿联酋扩大了石油产能 107 00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:26,120 每天能产450万桶 108 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:28,819 到明年能产500万桶 109 00:04:28,819 --> 00:04:31,379 但是欧佩克限制产量 110 00:04:31,379 --> 00:04:34,220 阿联酋有产能也不能用满 111 00:04:34,220 --> 00:04:37,060 长期有30%的产能被浪费 112 00:04:37,060 --> 00:04:38,459 有油而不能卖 113 00:04:39,459 --> 00:04:42,019 中东土豪少赚的钱是其次 114 00:04:42,019 --> 00:04:46,920 关键是欧佩克家里面的俄罗斯居然支持伊朗 115 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:49,000 而伊朗袭击海湾国家 116 00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:51,259 这让阿联酋有点恼火 117 00:04:51,259 --> 00:04:54,079 阿联酋退出欧佩克消息发布后 118 00:04:54,079 --> 00:04:57,720 国际油价小幅下跌后就继续上涨 119 00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:00,540 市场预计阿联酋退出欧佩克 120 00:05:00,540 --> 00:05:04,490 反而增加了中东地区局势恶化的风险 121 00:05:04,490 --> 00:05:07,430 霍尔木兹海峡封锁解除之前 122 00:05:07,430 --> 00:05:09,350 石油供应仍显不足 123 00:05:09,350 --> 00:05:11,689 油价仍然会维持在高位 124 00:05:11,689 --> 00:05:15,569 阿联酋靠输油管道绕开霍尔木兹海峡的控制 125 00:05:15,569 --> 00:05:18,750 也增加不了多少全球能源供给 126 00:05:19,069 --> 00:05:22,189 而阿联酋也不会一次性增加产量 127 00:05:22,189 --> 00:05:24,149 他们会渐进式增产 128 00:05:24,149 --> 00:05:25,810 伊朗战争以来 129 00:05:25,810 --> 00:05:29,428 油价与股价有一定的短期负相关关系 130 00:05:29,428 --> 00:05:31,228 油价如果突然大涨 131 00:05:31,228 --> 00:05:32,709 股市会承压 132 00:05:32,709 --> 00:05:36,288 但这个关联我看也是越来越弱化了 133 00:05:36,288 --> 00:05:39,730 最近去超市发现物价有所上升 134 00:05:39,730 --> 00:05:42,350 原本不计入核心通胀的油价 135 00:05:42,350 --> 00:05:46,490 正在将成本转移到日常生活中的商品和服务中 136 00:05:46,490 --> 00:05:49,949 接下来核心通胀有回升的预期 137 00:05:49,949 --> 00:05:53,389 克利夫兰联储实时通胀预测显示 138 00:05:53,389 --> 00:05:56,980 4月份核心PCE将达到3.17% 139 00:05:56,980 --> 00:06:00,288 核心CPI将达到2.56% 140 00:06:00,288 --> 00:06:01,649 那也还好 141 00:06:01,649 --> 00:06:04,809 就怕未来两三个月核心通胀抬头 142 00:06:04,809 --> 00:06:05,908 那样的话 143 00:06:05,908 --> 00:06:08,709 卧室上台后就很难降息了 144 00:06:08,709 --> 00:06:10,689 高盛写文章表示 145 00:06:10,689 --> 00:06:15,250 基金月底再平衡将导致股市面临较大卖压 146 00:06:15,250 --> 00:06:16,529 过去一个月 147 00:06:16,529 --> 00:06:18,629 商品交易顾问CCTA基金 148 00:06:18,629 --> 00:06:20,449 买入并持有标普500指数 149 00:06:20,449 --> 00:06:23,040 约320亿美元的多头头寸 150 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:25,920 目前不再是标普500的买盘了 151 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:28,959 根据高盛交易部门的模型预测 152 00:06:28,959 --> 00:06:31,610 CTA可能会转为卖出 153 00:06:31,610 --> 00:06:35,329 月底大规模的养老基金会做再平衡 154 00:06:35,329 --> 00:06:37,370 预计养老基金会抛售 155 00:06:37,370 --> 00:06:39,920 超过250亿美元的股票 156 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:43,199 养老基金再平衡是指股债平衡 157 00:06:43,199 --> 00:06:44,480 股票大涨 158 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:47,360 股票市值占基金的比重就会提高 159 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:51,040 而固定收益的债券仓位就显得低了 160 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:52,240 到了月底 161 00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:54,199 他们会卖出一些股票 162 00:06:54,199 --> 00:06:55,639 买入一些债券 163 00:06:55,639 --> 00:06:57,399 让各类资产的配比 164 00:06:57,399 --> 00:07:00,569 重新回到基金设置的风险权重上面 165 00:07:00,569 --> 00:07:02,170 再平衡这件事儿 166 00:07:02,170 --> 00:07:05,449 涨得好的资产通常会面临卖出的压力 167 00:07:05,449 --> 00:07:10,620 所以高盛认为月底两天股市卖出压力会比较大 168 00:07:10,620 --> 00:07:14,699 今天有一则消息打击了半导体和人工智能板块 169 00:07:14,699 --> 00:07:18,810 市场传言OPPOAI业绩增长不及预期 170 00:07:18,810 --> 00:07:21,569 公司没有能达成KPI目标 171 00:07:21,569 --> 00:07:23,250 向投资者承诺的 172 00:07:23,250 --> 00:07:26,290 2026年营收300亿美元的增长速度 173 00:07:26,290 --> 00:07:29,180 在一季度数据中无法跟上进度 174 00:07:29,180 --> 00:07:33,310 市场对OpenAI的爆发式增长表示怀疑 175 00:07:33,629 --> 00:07:35,889 活跃用户停留在9.1亿 176 00:07:35,889 --> 00:07:39,750 公司在今年内达成周活跃用户10亿的目标 177 00:07:39,750 --> 00:07:40,810 还有距离 178 00:07:40,810 --> 00:07:42,629 而且增长失速 179 00:07:42,629 --> 00:07:46,949 在两年前人工智能巨头之间的互相投资交易中 180 00:07:46,949 --> 00:07:50,350 我们知道OpenAI是一个重要的引擎 181 00:07:50,350 --> 00:07:53,300 如果OpenAI失去增长速度 182 00:07:53,300 --> 00:07:56,180 那么和他交易比较多的甲骨文 183 00:07:56,180 --> 00:07:56,980 软银 184 00:07:56,980 --> 00:08:00,298 英伟达等都将面临回调的压力 185 00:08:00,298 --> 00:08:03,158 这个算是AI的第一次信仰塌方 186 00:08:03,158 --> 00:08:05,699 如果OpenAI是上市公司 187 00:08:08,149 --> 00:08:10,790 我认为OpenAI增速不行了 188 00:08:10,790 --> 00:08:11,449 是利好 189 00:08:11,449 --> 00:08:14,699 谷歌的jammy乃奋起直追 190 00:08:14,699 --> 00:08:18,230 一季度的月活跃用户已经超过了7.5亿 191 00:08:18,230 --> 00:08:21,550 加上谷歌搜索里面的AI概要啊 192 00:08:21,550 --> 00:08:25,199 预计GEMINI月活跃用户将会超过20亿 193 00:08:29,100 --> 00:08:32,200 主要受到OpenAI业绩不佳影响 194 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:33,440 并非大空头 195 00:08:33,440 --> 00:08:35,720 BURRY做空有效啊 196 00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:37,960 费半指数连涨18天 197 00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:41,220 找个理由回调一下也是正常的操作 198 00:08:41,220 --> 00:08:44,429 亚马逊推出类似龙虾的智能体 199 00:08:44,429 --> 00:08:46,070 养龙虾啊 200 00:08:46,070 --> 00:08:47,470 就是open eclaw 201 00:08:47,470 --> 00:08:49,860 这个在一季度是非常流行 202 00:08:49,860 --> 00:08:51,860 它是一种AI智能体 203 00:08:51,860 --> 00:08:55,200 能在用户的电脑上进行各种操作 204 00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:56,740 比如打开文档 205 00:08:56,740 --> 00:08:57,899 上网浏览 206 00:08:57,899 --> 00:08:59,139 收发邮件 207 00:08:59,139 --> 00:09:00,879 预订机票等等 208 00:09:00,879 --> 00:09:03,940 亚马逊今天推出了类似龙虾的智能体 209 00:09:03,940 --> 00:09:06,409 名为bell rock agent CORE 210 00:09:06,409 --> 00:09:10,549 它运行在亚马逊AWS云端虚拟机当中 211 00:09:10,549 --> 00:09:12,539 比龙虾安全得多 212 00:09:12,539 --> 00:09:16,059 亚马逊是七巨头中最早创新高的一支 213 00:09:16,059 --> 00:09:18,019 目前呈突破走势 214 00:09:18,019 --> 00:09:21,029 即将迎接本周关键财报的考验 215 00:09:21,029 --> 00:09:25,450 今天公布财报的可口可乐高开后冲高回落 216 00:09:25,450 --> 00:09:28,509 可口可乐目前仍然是巴菲特的重仓股 217 00:09:28,509 --> 00:09:32,409 并且也是被认为穿越牛熊周期的防御股 218 00:09:32,409 --> 00:09:36,159 可口可乐上调了2026年全年财报预测 219 00:09:36,159 --> 00:09:39,019 预计全年自由现金流122亿 220 00:09:39,019 --> 00:09:42,120 每股收益增长率从700%分之八 221 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:44,850 上调到8%到9% 222 00:09:44,850 --> 00:09:46,590 既然是防御鼓 223 00:09:46,590 --> 00:09:48,299 就不太有进攻性 224 00:09:48,299 --> 00:09:49,940 KO的好处啊 225 00:09:49,940 --> 00:09:52,879 就是稳跌多了再买就可以了 226 00:09:52,879 --> 00:09:53,779 Visa 227 00:09:53,779 --> 00:09:57,360 盘后也是因为财报披露而上涨了5%以上 228 00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:01,360 这家支付巨头上季度业绩也是较为强劲 229 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:03,600 营业收入112.3亿 230 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:05,220 同比增长17% 231 00:10:05,220 --> 00:10:06,440 超预期 232 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:08,700 每股收益3.3亿美元 233 00:10:08,700 --> 00:10:11,090 超过预期的3.1美元 234 00:10:11,090 --> 00:10:13,490 上调全年营收增长率 235 00:10:13,490 --> 00:10:16,889 公布了200亿美元的股票回购计划 236 00:10:17,129 --> 00:10:19,250 季报表现强劲复苏 237 00:10:19,250 --> 00:10:21,710 股价有希望止跌企稳 238 00:10:21,710 --> 00:10:23,450 盘后存储股 239 00:10:23,450 --> 00:10:28,089 希捷科技STX公布财报就大涨13% 240 00:10:28,089 --> 00:10:30,548 一季度营业收入31.1亿 241 00:10:30,548 --> 00:10:32,509 同比增长44% 242 00:10:32,509 --> 00:10:34,490 超过分析师的预期 243 00:10:34,490 --> 00:10:36,429 每股收益4.1美元 244 00:10:36,429 --> 00:10:38,570 同比增长115% 245 00:10:38,570 --> 00:10:40,629 环比增长32% 246 00:10:40,629 --> 00:10:43,000 超过预期的3.5美元 247 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:45,740 毛利率达到47% 248 00:10:45,740 --> 00:10:47,720 这个毛利率挺高的 249 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:51,399 但还是不如GPU显卡的毛利高 250 00:10:51,399 --> 00:10:54,480 公司对下季度给出乐观预期 251 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:59,000 预计营收继续增长达到34.5亿美元 252 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:01,779 每股收益达到五美元 253 00:11:02,220 --> 00:11:06,200 细节盘后上涨带动同行上涨的幅度有限 254 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:08,980 闪跌盘后跟着涨了2.7% 255 00:11:08,980 --> 00:11:10,820 美光涨了2% 256 00:11:10,820 --> 00:11:13,259 西部数据涨了7.9% 257 00:11:13,259 --> 00:11:18,279 西部数据增长最多是因为业务结构高度重合 258 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:21,779 西部数据WDC和希捷科技 259 00:11:21,779 --> 00:11:25,980 STX是HDD机械硬盘两个巨头 260 00:11:25,980 --> 00:11:29,110 所以在细分市场中最为相似 261 00:11:29,389 --> 00:11:32,129 存储股能在上涨了这么多之后 262 00:11:32,129 --> 00:11:34,070 遇到全部超预期的财报 263 00:11:34,070 --> 00:11:36,049 还能继续上涨呃 264 00:11:36,049 --> 00:11:37,849 走势实在是强劲 265 00:11:37,849 --> 00:11:42,259 短线追涨强势股容易赚到顺势上涨的钱 266 00:11:42,259 --> 00:11:44,639 好今天的节目就分享到这里 267 00:11:44,639 --> 00:11:45,419 感谢大家收看 268 00:11:45,419 --> 00:11:47,539 我们下期节目再见拜拜
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