真正的大跌还未来，美股正在假上涨!5大信号，严重警告!所有人做好准备!NVDA,NBIS,CRWV,TSLA#trading #美股 #投資

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现在这个市场最危险的地方

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恰恰就是它看起来完全没问题

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嗨朋友们

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欢迎来到ruby投资笔记

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我是你们的老朋友ruby

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那四周之前呢

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市场还在恐慌

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大家天天讨论的是美股是不是要崩了

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AI行情是不是结束了

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经济会不会硬着陆呢

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结果短短一个月之后

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整个市场情绪180度反转

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现在一打开社交媒体

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看到的已经不是逃命

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而是还有什么股票没涨

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现在不上车

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是不是又错过AI大牛市

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会不会接下来天天创新高呢

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更夸张的是

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这一轮反弹的速度已经快

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接近2020年疫情之后那种疯狂上涨的行情

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标普指数从3月底的低点

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到现在是30一个交易日

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反弹了18%

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注意这不是一年

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是一个月

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如果说2020年那次

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是市场用最快速度完成的恐慌杀跌

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那么现在就是市场在用同样疯狂的速度

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完成情绪修复

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但问题也来了

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当市场涨到大家开始害怕错过的时候

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其实也是绝大多数人最容易犯错的时候

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因为这个阶段最可怕的地方在于

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你会开始怀疑自己

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空仓的人开始痛苦

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清仓的人开始焦虑

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而买仓的人则开始害怕

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现在是不是已经涨得太多了

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但真正危险的从来不是涨太快

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而是你根本不知道这一轮上涨

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什么时候开始变质

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而今天这期视频我想讲的就是这个

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因为接下来我要分析的五个信号

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其实并不是用来猜顶的

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这五个信号真正厉害的地方在于

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它能够让你提前察觉市场什么时候开始

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从强势上涨

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慢慢变成了最后的疯狂

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而历史上每一次大调整之前

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其实都会出现类似的痕迹

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只是绝大多数人等看到新闻的时候已经太晚了

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那视频开始之前呢

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大家可以先点个赞

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让更多的人看到我们这期视频

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你们的支持是我持续输出深度内容的最大动力

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那话不多说

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我们先从第一个也最重要的信号开始讲起

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但这个信号呢

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偏偏也是现在市场里最容易被忽略的东西

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因为它不会出现在新闻头条

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也不会有人天天讨论

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甚至指数还会继续的创新高

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但真正的问题是

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指数创新高不代表市场真的健康

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什么意思呢

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就是大家可能会有一种错觉

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就是只要只说涨

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市场就没有问题

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但是事实上很多大牛市死亡之前

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指数都会先假装没事

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然后内部慢慢开始腐烂

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而这个东西就叫做市场广度

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简单来说就是一个真正健康的上涨

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应该是越来越多股票一起涨

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科技涨

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金融涨

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工业涨

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中小盘也涨

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整个市场的风险偏好一起上升

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这才叫做真正的牛市

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但如果你发现指数还在涨

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可是越来越多的股票其实已经不涨了

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那事情就开始不对劲了

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而这里呢有一个很多散户根本不会看的指标

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也是华尔街交易员们非常喜欢观察的东西

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就是s spy和ISP的对比分析

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那这两个指标什么意思呢

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SPI的话指的是普通的标普500指数的ETF

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它是一个市值加权的ETF

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也就是说微软

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英伟达

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苹果这种超级巨头mac7占了极大的权重

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但是ISP不一样

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rs p是等权重的

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标普500

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他会把500家公司当成500个同等分量的成员

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那这两个东西的区别非常重要

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因为如果s spy还在创新高

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但是ISP已经横盘甚至开始下跌

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那就等于直接告诉你

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这个市场它已经不是全面牛市

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而是少数的超级巨头在硬拉指数

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这不叫牛市

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这叫少数人的狂欢

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如果把美股比作一辆火车

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现在其实是前面两节

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AI科技车头在疯狂的往前冲

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但是后面498节传统行业的车厢

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其实很多已经开始脱轨

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而这种内部腐烂历史上通常不会有什么好结果

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最经典的话就是2021年底

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当时的标普执着还在不断的创新高

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新闻天天都在喊牛市

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但实际上

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纽约交易所上涨股票数量的累计曲线

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已经提前开始一路下滑

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翻译成人话就是指数虽然还在涨

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但是真正参与上涨的股票越来越少

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那后来大家都知道了

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2022年的时候

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美股正式进入大熊市

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而最恐怖的是

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现在的市场其实也开始出现类似的味道

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最近的指数虽然还在冲

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但是站上20日天线和50日天线的股票比例

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却开始明显下降

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很多人没有感觉

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因为指数的表现还非常好

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但是真正危险的地方就在这里

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市场最容易杀人的阶段往往不是暴跌的时候

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而是只说看起来还没有问题的时候

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那接下来这个信号就更加危险了

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因为它意味着市场不仅内部开始转弱

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甚至连上涨本身都开始变得越来越吃力

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那这第二个信号就是上涨动能开始衰减

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这个阶段其实特别容易骗到人

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因为只说表面上还是在创新高

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所以大部分投资者会觉得

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既然还在创新高

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那肯定没有问题

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但真正的问题不在于有没有新高

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而在于这个新高是不是越来越勉强

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大家可以回忆一下

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一个真正强势的上涨通常是什么

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感觉

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是一路逼空

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回调很浅

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而且越涨越快

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因为资金会不断的追进来

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但是市场一旦开始转弱

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就会进入另一种状态

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涨得越来越慢

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回撤越来越深

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反弹越来越弱

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最经典的一个例子就是2021年的11月

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当时的指数还在新高

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但是实际上每一次上涨之后

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都会出现一个更深的回调

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而更关键的是

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反弹的力度已经开始明显不如之前

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这个时候如果你再结合瑞兹MACD这些指标

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会看到一个非常经典的现象

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就是指数越来越高

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但是指标越来越低

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也就是说价格创新高

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但是动动没有创新高

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这个东西在技术分析里面有一个名字

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叫做看跌背离

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但你不用记住这个术语

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你只需要记住一句话

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市场还在往上冲

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但是发动机已经开始歇火

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而现在美股其实已经开始出现了这种问题

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尤其是指数和50天线之间的距离

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已经远远超过历史平均范围

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那换句话说就是现在的市场

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它已经不是正常上涨

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而是极度亢奋

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那极度亢奋之后最危险的事情通常是什么呢

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不是暴跌

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是越来越多人开始忍不住追高

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然后下一步

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市场会开始进入一个对于普通投资者来说

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最残忍的阶段

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因为它会让你感觉机会到处都是

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但是实际上很多突破已经开始失效了

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那接下来我们要讲的第三个信号

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也是短线交易者最容易感受到的东西

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那就是突破失败的概率开始大量增加

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这一点其实非常重要

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因为市场强不强

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最终一定会反映在个股上

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正常强势的市场里面

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股票突破了平台之后

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因为资金愿意追

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那情绪愿意接

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一来一回就会产生流动性

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但是如果你发现越来越多的股票刚突破

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马上又跌回去

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那就说明市场的承接力开始下降了

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这里呢我给大家一个非常实战的判断标准

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很多专业交易员都会用的一个东西

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叫做三天法则

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什么意思呢

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就是比如一只股票

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他完成了杯贬的形态

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VCP形态或者是历史新高突破

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但正常的情况下

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他应该是在突破位的上方至少站稳三个交易日

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而且突破当天的成交量

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最好是过去30天平均成交量的1.5倍

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但如果做不到这个突破

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很多的时候就是假的

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这也就是所谓的牛市陷阱

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很多人都会有这种经历

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一只股票的形态特别漂亮

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盘整了很久

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放量突破

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但你刚一追进去

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第二天直接跌回了平台

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甚至是跌破止损

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那更可怕的是

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这种事情开始越来越频繁

225
00:07:33,490 --> 00:07:35,649
这个时候很多人第一反应是

226
00:07:35,649 --> 00:07:37,149
是不是我不会选股了

227
00:07:37,149 --> 00:07:38,870
但这并不是你的问题

228
00:07:38,870 --> 00:07:40,779
而是市场环境已经变了

229
00:07:40,779 --> 00:07:42,300
因为真正强势的市场

230
00:07:42,300 --> 00:07:44,120
它是会奖励追涨资金

231
00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:46,620
而弱势的市场会不断惩罚追涨

232
00:07:46,620 --> 00:07:48,620
这里其实有个特别关键的细节

233
00:07:48,620 --> 00:07:50,279
就是很多大跌开始之前

234
00:07:50,279 --> 00:07:52,000
市场不会第一时间崩指数

235
00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:52,740
它会先崩

236
00:07:52,740 --> 00:07:53,680
赚钱效应

237
00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:56,339
也就是说你会发现指数还没有怎么跌

238
00:07:56,339 --> 00:07:58,240
但是你越来越难赚钱

239
00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:00,240
而这个阶段也是大部分投资者

240
00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:02,038
最容易情绪失控的时候

241
00:08:02,038 --> 00:08:03,759
因为人一旦连续止损

242
00:08:03,759 --> 00:08:05,678
他就会做一件特别危险的事情

243
00:08:05,678 --> 00:08:06,819
就是想赚回来

244
00:08:06,819 --> 00:08:08,278
结果就是越做越急

245
00:08:08,278 --> 00:08:08,959
越做越大

246
00:08:08,959 --> 00:08:10,699
最后的胜率直接崩掉

247
00:08:10,699 --> 00:08:12,339
但真正成熟的交易者

248
00:08:12,339 --> 00:08:14,360
看到的不是我要不要赚回来

249
00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:17,579
而是市场是不是已经开始不适合进攻了

250
00:08:17,579 --> 00:08:19,939
很多投资者亏钱不是技术不行

251
00:08:19,939 --> 00:08:23,480
而是你根本分不清现在是顺风局还是逆风局

252
00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:25,240
那在我的内部交流圈呢

253
00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:26,839
我们每天就是帮成员

254
00:08:26,839 --> 00:08:29,839
把复杂的资金数据变成最直观的天气预报

255
00:08:29,839 --> 00:08:31,660
晴天的时候我们一起进攻

256
00:08:31,660 --> 00:08:32,759
那要下暴雨了

257
00:08:32,759 --> 00:08:35,990
我们会在焦虑圈第一时间提醒大家收缩防线

258
00:08:35,990 --> 00:08:37,990
也欢迎有想要加入的朋友们

259
00:08:37,990 --> 00:08:40,629
可以点击评论区的置顶链接加入我们

260
00:08:40,629 --> 00:08:43,710
那接下来我们就继续今天第四个信号的拆解

261
00:08:43,710 --> 00:08:45,009
只要这个信号出现

262
00:08:45,009 --> 00:08:48,990
则通常意味着真正的大资金已经开始撤退

263
00:08:52,159 --> 00:08:55,440
第四个信号呢是高波动下跌日开始频繁出现

264
00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:57,179
这个东西很多人都会忽略

265
00:08:57,179 --> 00:08:59,860
因为市场有时候它第二天还能涨回去

266
00:08:59,860 --> 00:09:00,980
但问题在于

267
00:09:00,980 --> 00:09:02,779
真正危险的市场不怕跌

268
00:09:02,779 --> 00:09:05,120
他怕的是突然开始剧烈波动

269
00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:05,759
什么意思

270
00:09:05,759 --> 00:09:08,259
就是市场开始频繁出现放量大跌

271
00:09:08,259 --> 00:09:10,360
盘中急杀恐慌性跳水

272
00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:11,480
哪怕最后拉回来

273
00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:12,960
你都要开始提高警惕

274
00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:16,450
因为这往往意味着有大资金正在偷偷的撤离

275
00:09:16,450 --> 00:09:19,590
最经典的就是2024年底到2025年初

276
00:09:19,590 --> 00:09:21,879
当时的指数其实还没有真正的崩

277
00:09:21,879 --> 00:09:23,840
甚至后面还在继续的创新高

278
00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:26,440
但是中间已经开始不断出现高波动

279
00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:29,049
下跌日最先倒下的并不是指数

280
00:09:29,049 --> 00:09:31,700
而是那些最热门最强势的动力股

281
00:09:31,700 --> 00:09:33,539
比如说DYNAC的电力

282
00:09:33,539 --> 00:09:34,340
AI基建

283
00:09:34,340 --> 00:09:36,580
很多股票在指数还没有跌的时候

284
00:09:36,580 --> 00:09:38,190
其实已经开始先不涨

285
00:09:38,190 --> 00:09:39,789
这个现象特别重要

286
00:09:39,789 --> 00:09:42,509
因为很多人误以为这只是市场轮动

287
00:09:42,509 --> 00:09:43,350
科技跌了

288
00:09:43,350 --> 00:09:43,990
金融接力

289
00:09:43,990 --> 00:09:44,870
工业在接力

290
00:09:44,870 --> 00:09:46,350
看起来市场很健康

291
00:09:46,350 --> 00:09:48,389
但历史上很多大调整之前

292
00:09:48,389 --> 00:09:49,350
所谓的轮动

293
00:09:49,350 --> 00:09:51,649
它本质上就是主线资金在撤退

294
00:09:51,649 --> 00:09:54,730
而真正的大跌往往都是先杀一波高贝塔

295
00:09:54,730 --> 00:09:55,730
先杀热门主题

296
00:09:55,730 --> 00:09:57,539
最后整个市场一起杀掉

297
00:09:57,539 --> 00:09:59,720
而我今天视频的最后一个信号

298
00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:02,860
是我认为的真正决定市场方向的核心

299
00:10:02,860 --> 00:10:04,940
因为前面我们讲的这四个指标

300
00:10:04,940 --> 00:10:07,500
本质上它只是下跌的一个表现

301
00:10:07,500 --> 00:10:08,259
是一个症状

302
00:10:08,259 --> 00:10:11,419
但接下来这个才是真正的病因

303
00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:17,600
最后一个信号就是市场开始重新害怕坏消息

304
00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:19,279
这一轮从3月底的上涨

305
00:10:19,279 --> 00:10:20,899
其实有一个特别明显的特征

306
00:10:20,899 --> 00:10:23,340
就是市场几乎是无视所有的利空

307
00:10:23,379 --> 00:10:24,460
通胀高没事

308
00:10:24,460 --> 00:10:25,340
股价继续涨

309
00:10:25,340 --> 00:10:26,419
经济太热没事

310
00:10:26,419 --> 00:10:28,379
大家不在意油价涨没市

311
00:10:28,379 --> 00:10:29,559
股价还是在涨

312
00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:33,360
甚至很多时候的坏消息最后都能被曲解成利好

313
00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:35,389
这就是典型的冒险狂潮

314
00:10:35,389 --> 00:10:38,629
就是市场已经进入到了直向上涨的状态

315
00:10:38,629 --> 00:10:39,730
但问题在于

316
00:10:39,730 --> 00:10:43,090
很多人以为市场突然害怕坏消息是情绪变差

317
00:10:43,090 --> 00:10:45,259
其实不是真正的原因

318
00:10:45,259 --> 00:10:47,899
是之前支撑市场无视利空的流动性

319
00:10:47,899 --> 00:10:50,059
兴奋剂可能开始药效到了

320
00:10:50,059 --> 00:10:52,200
我说的这句话是什么意思呢

321
00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:55,179
我要跟大家科普一个很多人完全不会看的东西

322
00:10:55,179 --> 00:10:57,039
就是美联储的逆回购账户

323
00:10:57,039 --> 00:10:59,779
也就是RIP过去这一两年

324
00:10:59,779 --> 00:11:02,139
为什么美股能无视那么多的坏消息

325
00:11:02,139 --> 00:11:02,940
一路上涨

326
00:11:02,940 --> 00:11:06,240
很大一个原因就是RP里面的大量沉淀资金

327
00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:07,909
持续性的释放到市场

328
00:11:07,909 --> 00:11:11,220
等于是给市场提供了一层隐形的流动性

329
00:11:13,799 --> 00:11:15,419
以及发展节奏的调整

330
00:11:15,419 --> 00:11:18,620
整个市场其实一直都有额外的水源在书写

331
00:11:18,620 --> 00:11:21,259
所以很多坏消息市场其实根本不怕

332
00:11:21,259 --> 00:11:23,000
因为流动性太过充裕

333
00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:24,679
注意它是一个蓄水池

334
00:11:24,679 --> 00:11:26,600
它越来越接近底部的时候

335
00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:29,659
或者是财政流动性开始反向抽水的时候

336
00:11:29,659 --> 00:11:32,000
市场的防弹衣就会开始消失

337
00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:33,039
到那个时候

338
00:11:33,039 --> 00:11:35,139
不是坏消息突然变得严重了

339
00:11:35,139 --> 00:11:38,879
而是之前支撑市场无视坏消息的流动性兴奋剂

340
00:11:38,879 --> 00:11:39,899
药效到了

341
00:11:39,899 --> 00:11:42,700
而一旦市场开始重新对坏消息敏感

342
00:11:42,700 --> 00:11:43,519
比如说某一天

343
00:11:43,519 --> 00:11:46,259
市场突然开始担心年底会不会重新加息

344
00:11:46,259 --> 00:11:47,600
流动性会不会收紧

345
00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:49,519
AI资本开支会不会放缓

346
00:11:49,519 --> 00:11:52,700
如果这些东西突然真的把市场给砸下去

347
00:11:52,700 --> 00:11:55,339
那就说明市场情绪已经变了

348
00:11:55,339 --> 00:11:57,038
因为牛市最强的时候

349
00:11:57,038 --> 00:11:58,818
利空是压不住市场的

350
00:11:58,818 --> 00:12:00,519
而熊市刚开始的时候

351
00:12:00,519 --> 00:12:02,740
任何利空都会被无限的放大

352
00:12:02,740 --> 00:12:05,799
而很多人最大的误区就是总觉得市场崩盘

353
00:12:05,799 --> 00:12:07,240
一定会提前通知你

354
00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:09,259
但是真正的情况是他不会的

355
00:12:09,259 --> 00:12:10,240
真正的大调整

356
00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:10,860
很多时候

357
00:12:10,860 --> 00:12:13,799
就是在大家觉得还没事的过程中开始的

358
00:12:13,799 --> 00:12:16,279
所以总结一下今天讲的五个信号

359
00:12:16,279 --> 00:12:17,960
第一就是市场广度的恶化

360
00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:19,809
第二就是上涨动能的衰减

361
00:12:19,809 --> 00:12:22,110
第三就是突破失败的概率增加

362
00:12:22,110 --> 00:12:23,450
第四是高波动

363
00:12:23,450 --> 00:12:24,750
下跌日频繁出现

364
00:12:24,750 --> 00:12:27,720
那第五就是市场重新开始害怕坏消息

365
00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:28,440
那听到这

366
00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:31,320
你可能会说ruby你讲的这些大盘数据我都懂

367
00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:32,759
但我没有这么多的时间

368
00:12:32,759 --> 00:12:34,360
天天去盯什么美联储啊

369
00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:35,599
看什么逆回购啊

370
00:12:35,599 --> 00:12:36,719
但是没有关系

371
00:12:36,719 --> 00:12:38,599
这些累活精细的活

372
00:12:38,599 --> 00:12:39,558
我和我交流

373
00:12:39,558 --> 00:12:40,839
俱乐部的专业交易员

374
00:12:40,839 --> 00:12:42,759
其实每天都在做这些事情

375
00:12:42,759 --> 00:12:44,940
我们会把这些复杂的宏观指标

376
00:12:44,940 --> 00:12:48,299
直接翻译成今天是安全还是危险的提示

377
00:12:48,299 --> 00:12:50,460
那接下来的市场波动会非常大

378
00:12:50,460 --> 00:12:53,568
如果你不想一个人在黑夜里面摸黑交学费的话

379
00:12:53,568 --> 00:12:55,528
欢迎点击评论区的置顶链接

380
00:12:55,528 --> 00:12:56,908
加入我们的内部圈子

381
00:12:56,908 --> 00:12:58,409
跟紧大资金的脚步

382
00:12:58,409 --> 00:13:01,049
那我今天和大家讲这些东西的目的呢

383
00:13:01,049 --> 00:13:02,710
不是为了让大家去猜顶

384
00:13:02,710 --> 00:13:05,899
因为真正厉害的人从来不靠精准逃顶赚钱

385
00:13:05,899 --> 00:13:08,279
而是在趋势里面待得足够久

386
00:13:08,279 --> 00:13:10,379
同时在市场开始变质的时候

387
00:13:10,379 --> 00:13:11,750
及时收缩风险

388
00:13:11,750 --> 00:13:14,049
因为投资最难的从来不是买

389
00:13:14,049 --> 00:13:16,230
而是什么时候继续相信趋势

390
00:13:16,230 --> 00:13:18,279
以及什么时候开始怀疑趋势

391
00:13:18,279 --> 00:13:19,120
而现在呢

392
00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:21,440
我认为市场其实已经开始进入到一个

393
00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:22,700
非常关键的阶段

394
00:13:22,700 --> 00:13:25,220
接下来的这几周会非常的重要

395
00:13:25,220 --> 00:13:28,279
因为如果我刚才讲的这些信号继续同时恶化

396
00:13:28,279 --> 00:13:31,639
那么后面的波动可能会比很多人想象的要更大

397
00:13:31,639 --> 00:13:34,019
但是如果这些信号重新修复

398
00:13:34,019 --> 00:13:37,490
那么这轮AI牛市很可能还远远没有结束

399
00:13:37,490 --> 00:13:39,289
所以我也想问大家一个问题

400
00:13:39,289 --> 00:13:42,169
你觉得现在的市场究竟是牛市中继

401
00:13:42,169 --> 00:13:43,490
还是最后的疯狂呢

402
00:13:43,490 --> 00:13:45,350
欢迎把你的想法留在评论区

403
00:13:45,350 --> 00:13:46,710
我会认真的观看

404
00:13:46,710 --> 00:13:49,470
那如果你喜欢这种真正拆解市场情绪

405
00:13:49,470 --> 00:13:50,190
资金行为

406
00:13:50,190 --> 00:13:51,779
交易心理的深度内容

407
00:13:51,779 --> 00:13:52,940
记得点赞订阅

408
00:13:52,940 --> 00:13:53,700
打开小铃铛

409
00:13:53,700 --> 00:13:55,200
不错过下一集精彩视频

410
00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:55,940
我是ruby

411
00:13:55,940 --> 00:13:56,820
咱们一起一会

412
00:13:56,820 --> 00:13:57,559
下期再见

413
00:13:57,559 --> 00:13:58,000
拜

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