1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:01,520
一个冷知识
2
00:00:01,520 --> 00:00:03,399
你把钱存进银行
3
00:00:03,399 --> 00:00:05,000
本金数字是在涨
4
00:00:05,000 --> 00:00:07,740
但是购买力却一直在掉
5
00:00:07,740 --> 00:00:09,259
2026年4月
6
00:00:09,259 --> 00:00:11,939
中国四大行的一年期定期利率
7
00:00:11,939 --> 00:00:13,949
只有0.95%
8
00:00:13,949 --> 00:00:16,670
而生活里真正感受到的通胀
9
00:00:16,670 --> 00:00:20,660
房租医疗教育服务综合算下来
10
00:00:20,660 --> 00:00:23,500
一年差不多3%到4%
11
00:00:23,500 --> 00:00:25,920
也就是说定存一年之后
12
00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:29,699
你的购买力实际上少了大约三个百分点
13
00:00:29,699 --> 00:00:31,160
这不是情绪
14
00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:32,560
这是算术
15
00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:34,060
今天这期视频
16
00:00:34,060 --> 00:00:37,979
我把一种绕开这个隐形亏损的思路讲清楚
17
00:00:37,979 --> 00:00:41,119
美元被动收入三层金字塔
18
00:00:41,119 --> 00:00:44,320
每个月让美元自动打进你的账户
19
00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:48,140
先把定存这笔账算清楚
20
00:00:48,140 --> 00:00:53,679
工农中建四大行2026年4月的挂牌利率
21
00:00:53,679 --> 00:00:56,100
一年定期0.9%
22
00:00:56,100 --> 00:00:58,420
53年1.2%
23
00:00:58,420 --> 00:01:00,979
55年1.3%
24
00:01:00,979 --> 00:01:02,020
同一时间
25
00:01:02,020 --> 00:01:06,140
中国官方的CPI同比涨幅大约是1%
26
00:01:06,140 --> 00:01:07,620
但如果把房租
27
00:01:07,620 --> 00:01:10,620
医疗教育服务类综合加权
28
00:01:10,620 --> 00:01:12,040
大家体感的通胀
29
00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:15,060
大约在3%到4%之间
30
00:01:15,060 --> 00:01:19,019
10万人民币存一年名义利息950块
31
00:01:19,019 --> 00:01:21,000
但通胀按4%算
32
00:01:21,000 --> 00:01:22,909
购买力少了4000块
33
00:01:22,909 --> 00:01:24,090
一正一负
34
00:01:24,090 --> 00:01:26,280
净亏3050
35
00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:27,420
存的越久
36
00:01:27,420 --> 00:01:29,700
账面数字看起来越漂亮
37
00:01:29,700 --> 00:01:31,359
购买力却越薄
38
00:01:31,359 --> 00:01:33,069
结论很直接
39
00:01:33,069 --> 00:01:36,650
在人民币计价1%利率的大环境下
40
00:01:36,650 --> 00:01:38,189
定存不是在保本
41
00:01:38,189 --> 00:01:42,340
它是在以一个稳定的速度让你的钱慢慢变小
42
00:01:42,340 --> 00:01:45,799
所以要解决这个问题只有两条路
43
00:01:45,799 --> 00:01:49,650
第一换一种计价货币换成美元
44
00:01:49,650 --> 00:01:53,739
第二换一种每月自动派息的美元证券
45
00:01:53,900 --> 00:01:57,019
美元被动收入不是某一只神奇的票
46
00:01:57,019 --> 00:01:59,180
它是一个三层金字塔
47
00:01:59,180 --> 00:02:01,180
底层稳中层涨
48
00:02:01,180 --> 00:02:02,430
顶层猛
49
00:02:02,430 --> 00:02:05,209
三层叠在一起才是完整的
50
00:02:05,209 --> 00:02:06,909
每月美元自动到账
51
00:02:06,909 --> 00:02:09,860
工程底层现金管理
52
00:02:09,860 --> 00:02:12,939
代表品种是SGOV和BIL
53
00:02:12,939 --> 00:02:16,060
年化分配率3.5%到4%
54
00:02:16,060 --> 00:02:18,180
负责替代活期和定存
55
00:02:18,180 --> 00:02:22,519
中层古稀蓝筹代表品种是可口可乐
56
00:02:22,519 --> 00:02:23,118
宝洁
57
00:02:23,118 --> 00:02:26,949
强生耐克以及SCHD和VYM
58
00:02:26,949 --> 00:02:30,550
年化分配率2.3%到3.8%
59
00:02:30,550 --> 00:02:32,409
负责抗通胀和复利
60
00:02:32,409 --> 00:02:34,519
顶层背对看涨
61
00:02:34,519 --> 00:02:38,799
代表品种是j e p i g e p q s spy
62
00:02:38,799 --> 00:02:43,210
IQQQI年化分配率8%到14%
63
00:02:43,210 --> 00:02:45,899
是整个金字塔的现金流引擎
64
00:02:45,899 --> 00:02:48,599
对照国内一年定期0.95%
65
00:02:48,599 --> 00:02:50,580
以及体感通胀4%
66
00:02:50,580 --> 00:02:53,500
底层就已经同时跑赢定存3.5倍
67
00:02:53,500 --> 00:02:55,449
并且覆盖通胀顶层
68
00:02:55,449 --> 00:02:58,650
则直接把现金流放大到定存的14倍
69
00:02:58,650 --> 00:03:01,969
下面一层一层拆底层
70
00:03:01,969 --> 00:03:04,289
我们只看两只ETF
71
00:03:04,289 --> 00:03:06,330
SGOV全称are shares
72
00:03:06,330 --> 00:03:07,129
0~3个月
73
00:03:07,129 --> 00:03:08,599
美国国债ETF
74
00:03:08,599 --> 00:03:12,219
把短期美债切成每股100美元卖给你
75
00:03:12,219 --> 00:03:15,460
bl全称SPDR1到三个月
76
00:03:15,460 --> 00:03:19,789
美国国债ETF逻辑和SGOV完全一致
77
00:03:19,789 --> 00:03:23,810
两只加在一起管理规模超过1000亿美元
78
00:03:23,810 --> 00:03:28,009
这是全球机构资金停泊的国家级安全资产
79
00:03:28,009 --> 00:03:29,289
收益和成本
80
00:03:29,289 --> 00:03:31,090
我们看最新数据
81
00:03:31,090 --> 00:03:36,099
SGOV30天sec收益率3.55%
82
00:03:36,099 --> 00:03:38,240
费率0.09%
83
00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:40,439
规模大约840亿美元
84
00:03:40,439 --> 00:03:43,520
每月分红BL30天
85
00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:46,259
sec收益率3.50%
86
00:03:46,259 --> 00:03:48,919
分配收益率3.95%
87
00:03:48,919 --> 00:03:50,610
同样每月分红
88
00:03:50,610 --> 00:03:53,129
这个收益率已经是国内一年
89
00:03:53,129 --> 00:03:56,409
定期0.95%的3.7倍
90
00:03:56,650 --> 00:03:58,810
SGOV的四个关键机制
91
00:03:58,810 --> 00:04:00,169
你必须记住
92
00:04:00,169 --> 00:04:02,370
第一每月派息
93
00:04:02,370 --> 00:04:04,990
股价基本定在100美元附近
94
00:04:04,990 --> 00:04:07,830
每月几毛钱现金准时到账
95
00:04:07,830 --> 00:04:10,990
第二跟美联储利率同呼吸
96
00:04:10,990 --> 00:04:12,430
美联储不降息
97
00:04:12,430 --> 00:04:14,219
它的收益率就不掉
98
00:04:14,219 --> 00:04:16,519
第三几乎零波动
99
00:04:16,519 --> 00:04:18,519
九七只有零点10年
100
00:04:18,519 --> 00:04:21,100
价格曲线基本就是一条平线
101
00:04:21,100 --> 00:04:24,100
第四替代场景非常明确
102
00:04:24,100 --> 00:04:27,220
美元账户里所有等待加仓的闲钱
103
00:04:27,220 --> 00:04:28,740
都应该放在这里
104
00:04:28,740 --> 00:04:31,100
而不是0%的活期
105
00:04:31,100 --> 00:04:32,160
打个比方
106
00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:35,259
SGOV就是美元版的加强型货机
107
00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:41,009
年化3.5%起步
108
00:04:41,009 --> 00:04:43,370
这一层不是用来发财的
109
00:04:43,370 --> 00:04:46,290
它是用来在4%的通胀面前
110
00:04:46,290 --> 00:04:48,779
先把你的购买力保住
111
00:04:48,899 --> 00:04:51,759
中层我们进入高股息蓝筹
112
00:04:51,759 --> 00:04:52,480
这一层
113
00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:56,079
在美股叫做dividend aristocrats和dividend kings
114
00:04:56,079 --> 00:04:59,699
翻译过来就是古希贵族和古希国王
115
00:04:59,699 --> 00:05:01,100
规则很简单
116
00:05:01,100 --> 00:05:04,980
连续25年每年都上调古稀叫贵族
117
00:05:04,980 --> 00:05:07,720
连续50年每年都上调股息
118
00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:09,699
叫国王能穿越
119
00:05:09,699 --> 00:05:10,459
2008
120
00:05:10,459 --> 00:05:13,000
202020223轮危机
121
00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:15,980
还在加分红的公司都是被时间筛过的
122
00:05:15,980 --> 00:05:17,180
现金奶牛
123
00:05:17,180 --> 00:05:18,759
四张核心牌
124
00:05:18,759 --> 00:05:23,139
可口可乐KO股息率大约2.6%年
125
00:05:23,139 --> 00:05:25,120
股息每股两块一毛二
126
00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:26,860
连续上调64年
127
00:05:26,860 --> 00:05:32,519
是股息国王宝洁pg股息率大约2.9%年
128
00:05:32,519 --> 00:05:34,579
股息每股四块三毛五
129
00:05:34,579 --> 00:05:36,139
连续上调70年
130
00:05:36,139 --> 00:05:37,769
也是股息国王
131
00:05:37,769 --> 00:05:41,730
强生券N券股息率大约2.2%
132
00:05:41,730 --> 00:05:44,529
5年股息每股五块三毛六
133
00:05:44,529 --> 00:05:46,560
连续上调64年
134
00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:50,459
耐克NKE股息率大约3.7%
135
00:05:50,459 --> 00:05:51,860
因为股价回调
136
00:05:51,860 --> 00:05:53,399
股息率被动抬高
137
00:05:53,399 --> 00:05:55,870
连续派息30多年
138
00:05:55,870 --> 00:05:57,769
不想研究个股
139
00:05:57,769 --> 00:06:00,670
两只ETF就能一键打包
140
00:06:00,670 --> 00:06:06,699
第一支SCHD加信美国红利股票ETF30天
141
00:06:06,699 --> 00:06:09,939
sec收益率3.84%
142
00:06:09,939 --> 00:06:12,259
费率只有0.06%
143
00:06:12,259 --> 00:06:14,158
基本可以忽略不计
144
00:06:14,158 --> 00:06:16,199
自2011年成立以来
145
00:06:16,199 --> 00:06:19,538
年化总回报大约13.3%
146
00:06:19,538 --> 00:06:21,319
1万美元买进去不动
147
00:06:21,319 --> 00:06:23,928
现在已经滚到5.9万美元
148
00:06:23,928 --> 00:06:26,488
第二支VYM先锋
149
00:06:26,488 --> 00:06:30,459
高股息ETF股息率大约2.4%
150
00:06:30,459 --> 00:06:32,300
规模720亿美元
151
00:06:32,300 --> 00:06:33,540
按季度派息
152
00:06:33,540 --> 00:06:37,689
过去5年股息的复合增长率5.9%
153
00:06:37,689 --> 00:06:42,029
这一层真正赚的不是今天3%的股息率
154
00:06:42,029 --> 00:06:43,610
而是复利加股息
155
00:06:43,610 --> 00:06:46,620
每年上调这两件事加起来的力量
156
00:06:46,620 --> 00:06:50,019
2011年买进SCHD的早期投资者
157
00:06:50,019 --> 00:06:53,160
当年只拿到大约2.6%的股息率
158
00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:54,189
十几年之后
159
00:06:54,189 --> 00:06:55,990
按当年买入成本计算
160
00:06:55,990 --> 00:06:59,480
他们的股息率已经涨到12.5%
161
00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:00,540
你不动手
162
00:07:00,540 --> 00:07:03,000
公司每年主动给你涨工资
163
00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:05,240
在4%通胀面前
164
00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:08,769
这一层就是真正的抗通胀发动机
165
00:07:08,769 --> 00:07:12,110
顶层是近3年美股最火的玩法
166
00:07:12,110 --> 00:07:13,910
背对看涨ETF
167
00:07:13,910 --> 00:07:15,600
英文叫cover call
168
00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:16,959
一句话原理
169
00:07:16,959 --> 00:07:19,040
用波动率换现金流
170
00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:20,560
操作是这样的
171
00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:22,360
先持有底层的股票
172
00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:25,519
比如标普500或者纳指100的指数
173
00:07:25,519 --> 00:07:30,279
然后再卖出虚值的看涨期权或者期权挂钩票据
174
00:07:30,279 --> 00:07:31,689
英文缩写ELN
175
00:07:31,689 --> 00:07:35,250
把收到的权利金每个月派发给投资者
176
00:07:35,250 --> 00:07:37,300
结果也很好理解
177
00:07:37,300 --> 00:07:38,959
市场下跌的时候
178
00:07:38,959 --> 00:07:41,819
每月的权利金就是你的缓冲垫
179
00:07:41,819 --> 00:07:43,019
帮你扛跌
180
00:07:43,019 --> 00:07:44,620
市场横盘的时候
181
00:07:44,620 --> 00:07:46,040
你什么都不用干
182
00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:48,220
每个月稳定吃权利金
183
00:07:48,220 --> 00:07:49,759
市场暴涨的时候
184
00:07:49,759 --> 00:07:52,500
因为你把上涨的潜力提前卖掉了
185
00:07:52,500 --> 00:07:54,548
它会跑输底层指数
186
00:07:54,548 --> 00:07:56,488
这就是他的代价
187
00:07:56,488 --> 00:07:57,528
一句话
188
00:07:57,528 --> 00:08:00,269
你是在用未来可能的上行空间
189
00:08:00,269 --> 00:08:03,199
换当下每月到手的现金流
190
00:08:03,199 --> 00:08:05,180
顶层的四张主力牌
191
00:08:05,180 --> 00:08:07,019
一张一张报给你
192
00:08:07,019 --> 00:08:10,589
第一张QQQI底层是纳值100
193
00:08:10,589 --> 00:08:12,269
分配率大约10%
194
00:08:12,269 --> 00:08:12,550
四
195
00:08:12,550 --> 00:08:15,290
月月派系费率0.68%
196
00:08:15,290 --> 00:08:17,110
发行方式NEOS
197
00:08:17,110 --> 00:08:20,750
第二章s spy i底层是标普500
198
00:08:20,750 --> 00:08:21,389
分配率
199
00:08:21,389 --> 00:08:22,889
大约11.9%
200
00:08:22,889 --> 00:08:25,649
月月派系费率0.68%
201
00:08:25,649 --> 00:08:30,658
也是NEOS第三张GEPQ底层是纳指100
202
00:08:30,658 --> 00:08:32,698
分配率大约10.6%
203
00:08:32,698 --> 00:08:35,499
月月派息费率0.35%
204
00:08:35,499 --> 00:08:37,379
发行方是摩根大通
205
00:08:37,379 --> 00:08:41,169
第四章GEPI底层是标普500
206
00:08:41,169 --> 00:08:43,009
分配率大约8%点
207
00:08:43,009 --> 00:08:46,179
4月月派息费率0.35%
208
00:08:46,179 --> 00:08:49,019
也是摩根大通一句话总结
209
00:08:49,019 --> 00:08:52,840
两家大厂NUS走的是更激进的高派系路线
210
00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:56,200
摩根大通走的是相对稳健的中高派息路线
211
00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:58,679
你可以混着配顶层
212
00:08:58,679 --> 00:09:01,259
这一层税务必须讲清楚
213
00:09:01,259 --> 00:09:02,679
NEOS系列
214
00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:05,450
也就是QQQI和s spy i
215
00:09:05,450 --> 00:09:08,730
他们分出来的很多钱会被划为return of capital
216
00:09:11,328 --> 00:09:13,688
意思是当年不用交税
217
00:09:13,688 --> 00:09:16,249
但会相应下调你的持仓成本
218
00:09:16,249 --> 00:09:18,929
基础可以理解为延税
219
00:09:18,929 --> 00:09:22,149
摩根大通的GEPR和GEPQ
220
00:09:22,149 --> 00:09:25,909
用的是医药N期权票据结构派出来的钱
221
00:09:25,909 --> 00:09:29,090
在美国税法下属于普通利息收入
222
00:09:29,090 --> 00:09:30,490
作为中国居民
223
00:09:30,490 --> 00:09:32,610
你需要在券商填一张表
224
00:09:32,610 --> 00:09:34,568
叫做W8BEN
225
00:09:34,568 --> 00:09:35,609
填完之后
226
00:09:35,609 --> 00:09:39,369
券商会按星号星号30%的预提税率
227
00:09:39,369 --> 00:09:41,379
星号星号自动扣税
228
00:09:41,379 --> 00:09:45,019
因为中美之间没有股息预提税的减免协定
229
00:09:45,019 --> 00:09:49,549
像bk2这样的主流券商默认就是30%
230
00:09:49,549 --> 00:09:51,610
所以有一个简化公式
231
00:09:51,610 --> 00:09:52,509
记住就行
232
00:09:52,509 --> 00:09:55,730
你的实际到手率大约等于标称分配率
233
00:09:55,730 --> 00:09:57,399
乘以70%
234
00:09:57,399 --> 00:09:58,740
举个例子
235
00:09:58,740 --> 00:10:02,340
QQQI标称14%乘0.7
236
00:10:02,340 --> 00:10:04,970
实际到手大约9.8%
237
00:10:04,970 --> 00:10:08,830
仍然是国内定存0.95%的十倍以上
238
00:10:08,830 --> 00:10:12,000
也是4%通胀的两倍以上
239
00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:14,059
10万美元怎么配
240
00:10:14,059 --> 00:10:16,429
月现金流到底有多少
241
00:10:16,429 --> 00:10:18,250
一个稳健型势例
242
00:10:18,250 --> 00:10:19,309
仅做演示
243
00:10:19,309 --> 00:10:21,190
不构成投资建议
244
00:10:21,190 --> 00:10:24,470
SGOV占三成3万美元
245
00:10:24,470 --> 00:10:26,110
年化3.5%
246
00:10:26,110 --> 00:10:29,100
5年现金流1065美元
247
00:10:29,100 --> 00:10:32,220
SCHD占三成3万美元
248
00:10:32,220 --> 00:10:33,779
年化3.8%
249
00:10:33,779 --> 00:10:36,929
4年现金流1152美元
250
00:10:36,929 --> 00:10:39,289
JEPQ占25
251
00:10:39,289 --> 00:10:40,809
2万5000美元
252
00:10:40,809 --> 00:10:43,129
年化10.6%年
253
00:10:43,129 --> 00:10:45,539
现金流2650美元
254
00:10:45,539 --> 00:10:47,820
SSPYI占15
255
00:10:47,820 --> 00:10:49,200
1万5000美元
256
00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:51,340
年化11.9%年
257
00:10:51,340 --> 00:10:53,839
现金流1785美元
258
00:10:53,839 --> 00:10:57,119
加在一起加权分配率6.6%
259
00:10:57,119 --> 00:11:00,809
5年现金流大约6652美元
260
00:11:00,809 --> 00:11:06,039
折算一下税前月均现金流大约554美元
261
00:11:06,039 --> 00:11:10,220
填好W8BEN按30%扣预提税之后
262
00:11:10,220 --> 00:11:13,669
月均到手大约388美元
263
00:11:13,669 --> 00:11:15,690
按7.2的汇率换算
264
00:11:15,690 --> 00:11:17,509
接近2800人民币
265
00:11:17,509 --> 00:11:20,409
每月同样金额的70万人民币
266
00:11:20,409 --> 00:11:24,610
放一年定期到手大约每月554人民币
267
00:11:24,610 --> 00:11:25,389
结论
268
00:11:25,389 --> 00:11:27,049
美元组合的月道首
269
00:11:27,049 --> 00:11:29,809
现金流大约是国内定存的五倍
270
00:11:29,809 --> 00:11:34,730
并且收益率结构性高于4%的通胀风险
271
00:11:34,730 --> 00:11:36,129
汇率合规
272
00:11:36,129 --> 00:11:40,009
一张卡片讲完第一投资风险
273
00:11:40,009 --> 00:11:41,330
美股有波动
274
00:11:41,330 --> 00:11:45,090
被对看涨的ETF在大牛市里会跑输指数
275
00:11:45,090 --> 00:11:46,629
这是结构决定的
276
00:11:46,629 --> 00:11:50,340
不能指望他技高派息又长得比指数快
277
00:11:50,340 --> 00:11:52,009
第二汇率
278
00:11:52,009 --> 00:11:53,590
人民币换美元
279
00:11:53,590 --> 00:11:56,269
每人每年5万美元的购汇额度
280
00:11:56,269 --> 00:11:59,570
要走正规银行渠道合规申报
281
00:11:59,570 --> 00:12:02,529
第三税务一定要填好
282
00:12:02,529 --> 00:12:06,450
W8BEN分红统一按30%余提
283
00:12:06,450 --> 00:12:08,330
在c rs框架下
284
00:12:08,330 --> 00:12:08,850
香港
285
00:12:08,850 --> 00:12:11,110
新加坡等账户的资金流动
286
00:12:14,029 --> 00:12:15,710
第四底线
287
00:12:15,710 --> 00:12:20,379
今天讲到的所有标的SGOVSCHDQQ
288
00:12:20,379 --> 00:12:24,960
qi s spy i都是美国证监会注册主流券商
289
00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:26,870
可以公开买卖的证券
290
00:12:26,870 --> 00:12:29,690
这是合法的境外金融资产配置
291
00:12:29,690 --> 00:12:32,940
和任何灰色资金往来无关
292
00:12:32,940 --> 00:12:34,779
最后一句总结
293
00:12:34,779 --> 00:12:36,360
定存1%
294
00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:38,039
通胀4%
295
00:12:38,039 --> 00:12:39,940
这不是所谓的保本
296
00:12:39,940 --> 00:12:42,090
是慢性的购买力流失
297
00:12:42,090 --> 00:12:45,389
而三层被动收入金字塔是用工具
298
00:12:45,389 --> 00:12:46,269
用证券
299
00:12:46,269 --> 00:12:47,970
用全球资本市场
300
00:12:47,970 --> 00:12:51,980
把你的现金流结构从头到尾重新搭建一次
301
00:12:51,980 --> 00:12:55,220
底层用SGOV和BIL跑赢通胀
302
00:12:55,220 --> 00:12:57,820
中层用SCHD和蓝筹吃福利
303
00:12:57,820 --> 00:13:00,799
顶层用QQQISSPYI
304
00:13:00,799 --> 00:13:04,019
把月现金流放大三层组合起来
305
00:13:04,019 --> 00:13:07,830
才是真正意义上的每月美元自动到账
306
00:13:07,830 --> 00:13:10,250
如果这期内容你觉得有用
307
00:13:10,250 --> 00:13:11,070
点个赞
308
00:13:11,070 --> 00:13:12,289
点个关注
309
00:13:12,289 --> 00:13:14,539
我们下期见