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【Adam Khoo】股市太贵了吗?巴菲特持币4000亿,为什么我还在买?

BV1q9RvBvEdm · 浑水摸鱼清源
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发布时间 2026-05-04 22:00
时长 24分33秒
播放 809
点赞 13
评论 3
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原始字幕
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就在几天前

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在伯克希尔哈撒韦年度股东大会期间

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沃伦·巴菲特再次表示

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呃

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股市价格过高,他看不到任何值得买入的机会

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而如今

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他的公司已累积超过3970亿美元现金

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却没有任何可投资标的

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这对投资者来说是否意味着应该退出市场

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不要买入任何东西

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因为你知道市场过于昂贵

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嗯

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让我们在本视频中探讨这个问题

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我知道

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许多长期远离股市的人

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他们错过了市场的大幅上涨行情

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通过持有现金

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仅仅观察其购买力

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他写道由于通货膨胀

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而他们给出的理由是

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哦

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股市过于昂贵

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这不是新鲜事

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他们已持续说上两三年

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有些人甚至四年

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当你询问他们

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为什么市场过于昂贵

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他们会说

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看看沃伦·巴菲特

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他是世界上最伟大的投资者之一

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对此我并不认同

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我是巴菲特的忠实追随者已有一段时间

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我认为过去一年多他一直在净抛售股票

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而非买入

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他也长期表示

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你知道现在没有什么可买的

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他们开始迪拜

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是

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没有什么可买的

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而就在几天前他又重申了这一点

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通过指出股价过高

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如今的股市看起来更像赌场

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而非教堂

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他希望像教堂一样让投资者保持忠诚

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并且忠诚

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但赌场则是来去匆匆

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因此他的公司现在已累积3970亿美元现金

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因此有人将其解读为强烈的看跌信号

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他认为这是

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他在说现在一切过于昂贵

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他正在等待市场崩盘

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人们认为巴菲特在预测崩盘

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这就是他现在持有大量现金的原因

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对于一位忠实的巴菲特追随者

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对于读过他所有著作的人

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我反复观看过这些视频很多次

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我关注巴菲特已有三十年

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关于理解巴菲特理念的一点

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他根本不试图预测市场

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你知道吗

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他总说我不知道下周市场会怎样

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下个月、明年都毫无头绪

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但他所做的是只买入优质公司

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那些他理解的高质量公司

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当它们被低估时

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所以他没有买入任何东西的原因

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他持有大量现金是因为坦白说

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是的

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他找不到被低估的机会

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你知道的

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但另一方面人们看着我

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说亚当

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但为什么你在买入呢 对我的社区成员

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我的终极投资者指南

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你每天收到我的提醒

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你知道我几乎每天都在买入股票

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我每天都在交易期权

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现在市场上有很多优质公司

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所以为什么有这种差异

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你明白的

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人们说

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你不也是价值投资者吗

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你不也是巴菲特风格吗

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是的

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但为什么我有东西可买

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而他却没有可买的东西

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我想解释的三个原因

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以及那些观看巴菲特并认为应该看空的人

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为何可能误判形势

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好的

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所以原因

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第一个原因

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如果你了解

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沃伦·巴菲特

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你会知道巴菲特的纪律

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他的原则是只投资熟悉的业务

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在他能力圈内的企业

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他曾多次表示

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他不懂科技

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因为他不使用这些技术

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多年来他以只用翻盖手机而闻名

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当他购买苹果公司时

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蒂姆·库克给了他一部iPhone

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但直到今天他只用iPhone打电话

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他甚至不知道如何使用

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呃

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短信功能

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他不用像Messenger或社交媒体

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他根本不使用这些

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对吧

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因为他不感兴趣

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过去六十年他办公桌上连电脑都没有

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所以他不懂科技

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他自己也承认过

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你知道的

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事实上他唯一投资的科技公司是多年前的IBM

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那次他还亏了钱

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因为他坦言我买了

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我不懂的东西

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从那时起

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在这方面

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现在

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有些人可能会问苹果呢

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你现在从苹果赚了那么多钱

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如果仔细想想

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在他看来

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苹果对我来说不是科技公司

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苹果是人们沉迷的消费产品公司

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他收购苹果的原因

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是因为曾有曾孙女对他说

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我离不开我的iPhone

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我离不开我的iPad

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对吧

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他意识到苹果已成为必需品公司

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人们离不开它

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你知道的

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这就是他收购苹果的原因

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对他而言

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苹果不是科技公司对吧

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像谷歌、微软和英伟达

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这些是他不懂的科技公司

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是的

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所以他只投资南方铁路公司

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这些是大型蓝筹股

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大型企业

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成熟企业

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其中大部分是传统产业公司

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比如铁路

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工业公司

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保险业这是他的专长

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如果你看看他领域内的许多公司

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我同意他的观点

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现在它们的价格严重虚高

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事实上过去几年它们一直被高估

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例如

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看看可口可乐

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他拥有的、符合其领域标准的公司之一

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可口可乐目前市盈率仅为2倍

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五倍

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你知道这对科技公司来说实在太贵了

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好的

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沃尔玛

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符合他标准的同类公司市盈率在4倍

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成本市盈率在5倍

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市盈率两倍疯狂

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顺便说一句

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这些都是优质公司

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我也很想买入

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但对我来说

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这家公司估值太高了

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按照穆迪的估值方式

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呃

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金融公司市盈率3倍

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三倍市盈率疯狂昂贵

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现在银行的情况如何

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对于银行

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我们不使用市盈率

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而是用市净率

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以摩根大通为例

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例如

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市净率高达2.43倍

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简直疯狂

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我也想持有摩根大通

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但价格太高了

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是啊

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所以这就像海洋缓冲区

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只有特定区域有鱼

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我只在特定区域捕鱼

189
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所以你看这片海洋是深是浅

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00:06:46,170 --> 00:06:50,139
海洋某些区域浅某些区域深

191
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当他称市场过贵时

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他是在说整个海洋太浅

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他在某些区域是对的

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明白

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但他避开那些区域

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讽刺的是现在许多科技公司

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嗯

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00:07:03,389 --> 00:07:04,490
不能说全部

199
00:07:04,490 --> 00:07:09,939
但许多严重低估的公司其实存在

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00:07:09,939 --> 00:07:12,000
这也是他看不到的原因

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因为它不在他的核心能力范围内

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当然

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正如我多次提到的

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市盈率单独来看可能非常误导

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我们必须关注盈利增长和现金流增长

206
00:07:22,220 --> 00:07:23,860
所以我们来看福特的市盈率

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这就是所谓的现金流倍数以获得更清晰

208
00:07:26,029 --> 00:07:26,810
更全面的图景

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没错,如果你看股票oracle

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00:07:28,839 --> 00:07:31,639
可以给你更详细的画面,同样

211
00:07:31,639 --> 00:07:34,319
让我们看看Buffer会买入的股票

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00:07:34,319 --> 00:07:36,459
你知道,Costco是优秀公司

213
00:07:36,459 --> 00:07:37,720
我很想拥有Costco

214
00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:41,160
但看市盈率仍是五倍左右

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00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:41,879
毫无意义

216
00:07:41,879 --> 00:07:44,869
我看福特的市盈率是四倍

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00:07:44,869 --> 00:07:49,329
这家公司增长约8-7%

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一家年增长7-8%的公司

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00:07:52,300 --> 00:07:54,540
但市盈率却高达40-50

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00:07:54,540 --> 00:07:55,980
这价格相当昂贵

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再看内在价值

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00:07:58,000 --> 00:07:58,800
你知道的

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00:07:58,800 --> 00:07:59,220
呃

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00:07:59,220 --> 00:08:01,459
如果看现金流折现

225
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折现自由现金流

226
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可以看到仅值约488美元

227
00:08:06,509 --> 00:08:09,490
但股价现在一千美元

228
00:08:09,490 --> 00:08:09,769
没错

229
00:08:09,769 --> 00:08:13,709
市场支付价格与实际存在巨大差距

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和呃

231
00:08:14,750 --> 00:08:18,560
你未来二十年收到的现金流折现

232
00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:19,199
呃

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00:08:19,199 --> 00:08:20,720
未来二十年

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00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:21,899
让我们看看

235
00:08:21,899 --> 00:08:22,259
呃

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00:08:22,259 --> 00:08:22,839
沃尔玛

237
00:08:22,839 --> 00:08:23,339
同样情况

238
00:08:23,339 --> 00:08:26,170
沃尔玛长期增长约8%

239
00:08:26,170 --> 00:08:27,329
9-8%

240
00:08:27,329 --> 00:08:27,870
长期来看

241
00:08:27,870 --> 00:08:30,550
以4.8倍市盈率出售

242
00:08:30,550 --> 00:08:32,669
前向市盈率40倍

243
00:08:32,669 --> 00:08:36,600
看自由现金流折现

244
00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:38,340
仅值39美元

245
00:08:38,340 --> 00:08:41,019
而股价是一百三十一美元

246
00:08:41,019 --> 00:08:41,639
好的

247
00:08:41,639 --> 00:08:42,460
差距巨大

248
00:08:42,460 --> 00:08:42,799
你知道的

249
00:08:42,799 --> 00:08:43,379
所以他没错

250
00:08:43,379 --> 00:08:48,029
市场对这类公司定价疯狂昂贵

251
00:08:48,029 --> 00:08:49,850
再看看可口可乐

252
00:08:49,850 --> 00:08:51,669
有些他持有多年

253
00:08:51,669 --> 00:08:54,210
嗯,可口可乐增长率从6%

254
00:08:54,210 --> 00:08:56,210
降至4.5%

255
00:08:56,210 --> 00:08:57,789
长期持有它

256
00:08:57,789 --> 00:08:59,029
你知道两四倍

257
00:08:59,029 --> 00:09:00,549
PE四倍

258
00:09:00,549 --> 00:09:01,419
两倍

259
00:09:01,419 --> 00:09:03,419
如果你做现金流折现分析

260
00:09:03,419 --> 00:09:05,120
自由现金流价值约

261
00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:05,659
你知道的

262
00:09:05,659 --> 00:09:07,659
四九五美元

263
00:09:07,659 --> 00:09:08,019
对吧

264
00:09:08,019 --> 00:09:10,129
最多四九五八美元

265
00:09:10,129 --> 00:09:11,169
但当前股价

266
00:09:11,169 --> 00:09:12,470
是78美元

267
00:09:12,470 --> 00:09:14,950
但并非所有公司都贵

268
00:09:14,950 --> 00:09:17,860
有些公司实际被低估

269
00:09:17,860 --> 00:09:21,179
这些只是巴菲特不感兴趣的

270
00:09:21,179 --> 00:09:22,970
超出能力圈范围

271
00:09:22,970 --> 00:09:27,679
当然其中一家是每天使用的公司

272
00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:30,059
我的公司投入巨资广告

273
00:09:30,059 --> 00:09:31,879
或每天使用这个产品

274
00:09:31,879 --> 00:09:36,519
36亿人每天使用且增长

275
00:09:36,519 --> 00:09:39,090
是Meta平台公司

276
00:09:39,870 --> 00:09:43,279
Messenger和Instagram

277
00:09:43,279 --> 00:09:44,659
没错,看Meta平台

278
00:09:44,659 --> 00:09:45,779
例如

279
00:09:45,779 --> 00:09:47,519
再看

280
00:09:47,519 --> 00:09:47,980
嗯

281
00:09:47,980 --> 00:09:48,919
折现

282
00:09:48,919 --> 00:09:49,639
嗯

283
00:09:49,639 --> 00:09:50,639
自由现金流

284
00:09:50,639 --> 00:09:55,019
可见其价值749美元

285
00:09:55,019 --> 00:09:58,399
当前股价608美元

286
00:09:58,399 --> 00:09:59,779
明显被低估

287
00:09:59,779 --> 00:10:00,000
现在

288
00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:06,500
需注意此749美元折现自由现金流

289
00:10:06,940 --> 00:10:08,860
若展示实际计算过程

290
00:10:08,860 --> 00:10:10,220
可在此看到

291
00:10:10,220 --> 00:10:11,139
对

292
00:10:11,139 --> 00:10:16,549
基于近期自由现金流

293
00:10:16,830 --> 00:10:21,049
扣除大量资本扩张

294
00:10:21,049 --> 00:10:22,549
正如所知

295
00:10:22,549 --> 00:10:24,419
已增加资本开支

296
00:10:24,419 --> 00:10:24,940
嗯

297
00:10:24,940 --> 00:10:26,980
因AI数据中心投入

298
00:10:26,980 --> 00:10:28,820
让我展示具体数据

299
00:10:28,820 --> 00:10:29,460
嗯

300
00:10:29,460 --> 00:10:31,700
就在那边

301
00:10:34,940 --> 00:10:35,460
是的

302
00:10:35,460 --> 00:10:38,940
所以你可以看到资本支出最近大幅增加

303
00:10:38,940 --> 00:10:40,700
没错因为这个原因

304
00:10:40,700 --> 00:10:44,039
这就是导致自由现金流的原因

305
00:10:44,039 --> 00:10:45,259
让我给你展示一下

306
00:10:45,259 --> 00:10:45,720
呃

307
00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:47,500
自由现金流

308
00:10:52,379 --> 00:10:53,379
这里更清晰

309
00:10:53,379 --> 00:10:53,779
对的

310
00:10:53,779 --> 00:10:55,299
看看自由现金流

311
00:10:55,299 --> 00:10:58,419
自由现金流实际上正在下降

312
00:10:58,419 --> 00:11:02,700
由于额外的资本支出导致下降

313
00:11:02,700 --> 00:11:07,929
但即使有自由现金流下降的情况

314
00:11:08,330 --> 00:11:13,928
根据最近的自由现金流达到七百四十九

315
00:11:13,928 --> 00:11:14,389
现在

316
00:11:14,389 --> 00:11:15,389
你可能会问

317
00:11:15,389 --> 00:11:18,048
为什么存在这种估值

318
00:11:18,048 --> 00:11:18,349
顺便说一句

319
00:11:18,349 --> 00:11:22,828
估值模型是计算人工智能

320
00:11:22,828 --> 00:11:25,668
它认为的内在公平价值

321
00:11:25,668 --> 00:11:28,469
当前估值模型显示九百美元

322
00:11:28,469 --> 00:11:30,169
为什么更高

323
00:11:30,169 --> 00:11:34,090
为什么估值达到九百美元高于常规折现

324
00:11:34,090 --> 00:11:34,929
自由现金流

325
00:11:34,929 --> 00:11:36,049
因为估值模型

326
00:11:36,049 --> 00:11:40,389
它会将资本支出进行标准化

327
00:11:40,389 --> 00:11:45,059
取过去五年平均资本支出进行标准化

328
00:11:45,059 --> 00:11:47,539
取当前运营现金流

329
00:11:47,539 --> 00:11:51,839
减去五年平均资本支出得到标准化自由现金流

330
00:11:51,839 --> 00:11:54,019
对我来说

331
00:11:54,019 --> 00:11:56,490
我认为估值应为九百美元

332
00:11:56,490 --> 00:11:58,490
因此明显被低估

333
00:11:58,490 --> 00:11:59,429
如果看数据

334
00:12:05,279 --> 00:12:12,169
以福特市盈率仅七十倍即可实现约十四增长

335
00:12:12,169 --> 00:12:12,690
是的

336
00:12:12,690 --> 00:12:16,970
我认为Meta平台是当前严重低估的伟大公司之一

337
00:12:16,970 --> 00:12:18,269
当然不止一家

338
00:12:18,269 --> 00:12:19,250
还有几家

339
00:12:19,250 --> 00:12:21,830
稍后我会展示图表

340
00:12:21,830 --> 00:12:23,269
但让我们回到这个话题

341
00:12:23,269 --> 00:12:28,149
首先原因可能因人而异

342
00:12:28,149 --> 00:12:29,529
我们都可以正确

343
00:12:29,529 --> 00:12:31,350
他可能认为价格过高

344
00:12:31,350 --> 00:12:33,369
在他所在区域是对的

345
00:12:33,369 --> 00:12:36,308
我则认为价格偏低

346
00:12:36,308 --> 00:12:37,688
海洋实在太大了

347
00:12:37,688 --> 00:12:37,928
是的

348
00:12:37,928 --> 00:12:40,720
另外当你看到他持有大量现金

349
00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:46,230
还记得他的伯克希尔公司本质上是一家保险公司

350
00:12:46,230 --> 00:12:48,330
实际上将许多保险公司整合为一家

351
00:12:48,330 --> 00:12:50,269
他还是一家再保险公司

352
00:12:50,269 --> 00:12:53,599
这意味着他为其他保险公司提供保障

353
00:12:53,599 --> 00:12:57,038
作为全球最大保险公司之一

354
00:12:57,038 --> 00:13:02,960
他必须始终持有足够现金以应对飓风

355
00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:07,730
战争以及三西格玛级别的突发事件

356
00:13:07,730 --> 00:13:10,349
确保有足够的资金支付所有索赔

357
00:13:10,349 --> 00:13:14,179
大量现金并非战术性操作

358
00:13:14,179 --> 00:13:19,679
而是结构性需求必须时刻保持

359
00:13:19,679 --> 00:13:25,480
第三点需要牢记的是如果你盲目跟随

360
00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:26,679
不了解原因地模仿他的做法

361
00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:34,269
在财富积累过程中会错过大量收益

362
00:13:34,629 --> 00:13:36,669
在2020年

363
00:13:36,669 --> 00:13:38,889
回想2020年当

364
00:13:38,889 --> 00:13:39,409
嗯

365
00:13:39,409 --> 00:13:40,090
疫情期间

366
00:13:40,090 --> 00:13:42,000
市场大幅下跌时

367
00:13:42,399 --> 00:13:42,940
嗯

368
00:13:42,940 --> 00:13:45,379
我认为下跌了35%以上

369
00:13:45,379 --> 00:13:46,120
你知道的

370
00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:48,759
伯克希尔当时没有大幅买入

371
00:13:48,759 --> 00:13:53,500
此后市场从该点位上涨250%

372
00:13:53,500 --> 00:13:54,480
正如你们所知

373
00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:56,440
我进行了大量买入

374
00:13:56,440 --> 00:14:00,720
许多观看我视频的观众也是如此

375
00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:04,159
2022年又出现熊市

376
00:14:04,159 --> 00:14:05,960
市场再次下跌

377
00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:07,460
约25%

378
00:14:07,460 --> 00:14:10,009
他同样未进行买入

379
00:14:10,009 --> 00:14:14,259
此后市场从该点位上涨100%

380
00:14:14,259 --> 00:14:16,159
你在这里可以翻倍资产

381
00:14:16,159 --> 00:14:18,529
几乎可以三倍增长

382
00:14:18,529 --> 00:14:21,029
更近期的2025年

383
00:14:21,029 --> 00:14:22,970
特朗普提出

384
00:14:22,970 --> 00:14:24,490
全球关税政策

385
00:14:24,490 --> 00:14:26,210
再次解放日

386
00:14:26,210 --> 00:14:28,339
市场下跌20%

387
00:14:28,339 --> 00:14:29,698
他同样未采取行动

388
00:14:29,698 --> 00:14:31,859
但如果你当时买入股票

389
00:14:31,859 --> 00:14:32,839
在低位时布局

390
00:14:32,839 --> 00:14:33,578
我再说一遍

391
00:14:33,578 --> 00:14:34,940
在低位买入优质股票

392
00:14:34,940 --> 00:14:36,059
你知道现在市场已回升

393
00:14:36,059 --> 00:14:37,620
从该点位上涨51%

394
00:14:37,620 --> 00:14:37,899
你知道的

395
00:14:37,899 --> 00:14:40,509
必须非常谨慎

396
00:14:40,509 --> 00:14:41,190
你知道的

397
00:14:41,190 --> 00:14:44,549
不要盲目跟随他人操作

398
00:14:44,549 --> 00:14:47,970
让我再次强调我是巴菲特忠实信徒

399
00:14:47,970 --> 00:14:50,419
他是我真正的导师

400
00:14:50,419 --> 00:14:51,440
所以啊

401
00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:53,100
完全没有对他不敬

402
00:14:53,100 --> 00:14:56,000
但我要说的是我非常密切地追随他

403
00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:57,950
在哲学层面

404
00:14:57,950 --> 00:15:01,809
其核心理念是专注于自己的能力圈

405
00:15:01,809 --> 00:15:03,960
即你真正理解的事物

406
00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:04,799
即你熟悉的公司

407
00:15:04,799 --> 00:15:07,568
其产品和服务是你自己使用的

408
00:15:07,568 --> 00:15:10,149
并计算自身的内在价值

409
00:15:10,149 --> 00:15:12,349
或者可以借助可靠的工具辅助

410
00:15:12,349 --> 00:15:14,818
仅在被低估时出手

411
00:15:14,818 --> 00:15:18,119
并耐心等待复利增长

412
00:15:18,119 --> 00:15:20,778
这就是我遵循的理念

413
00:15:20,778 --> 00:15:24,470
并非单纯复制他的操作

414
00:15:24,470 --> 00:15:26,210
仅通过遵循他的理念

415
00:15:26,210 --> 00:15:30,039
叠加自身核心能力

416
00:15:30,039 --> 00:15:33,129
我已显著跑赢市场

417
00:15:33,129 --> 00:15:35,830
事实上从伯克希尔以来

418
00:15:35,830 --> 00:15:36,110
你知道的

419
00:15:36,110 --> 00:15:36,730
过去几年

420
00:15:36,730 --> 00:15:37,350
你可以看到

421
00:15:37,350 --> 00:15:41,100
过去七年从2019年至今

422
00:15:41,100 --> 00:15:42,820
我的投资组合增值

423
00:15:42,820 --> 00:15:43,139
呃

424
00:15:43,139 --> 00:15:45,328
249%

425
00:15:45,328 --> 00:15:45,928
呃

426
00:15:45,928 --> 00:15:47,568
超越标普500指数

427
00:15:47,568 --> 00:15:48,668
绿色曲线显示

428
00:15:48,668 --> 00:15:50,509
高于伯克希尔哈撒韦

429
00:15:50,509 --> 00:15:51,708
黄色曲线代表

430
00:15:51,708 --> 00:15:53,970
正如我之前展示的

431
00:15:53,970 --> 00:15:55,590
今年一月

432
00:15:55,590 --> 00:16:00,350
我实际上从联名账户撤出99%资金

433
00:16:00,350 --> 00:16:03,849
可见净资产大幅下降

434
00:16:03,849 --> 00:16:08,059
因为我转入新私人有限公司账户

435
00:16:08,059 --> 00:16:09,899
为避免遗产税问题

436
00:16:09,899 --> 00:16:10,220
对吧

437
00:16:10,220 --> 00:16:14,210
这是原账户撤出99%资金

438
00:16:14,210 --> 00:16:17,120
留1%继续产生收益

439
00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:22,070
这是新账户今年一月设立

440
00:16:22,070 --> 00:16:26,110
新私人有限公司账户上涨10.76%

441
00:16:26,110 --> 00:16:30,649
年化收益率远超市场

442
00:16:30,649 --> 00:16:32,830
最棒的是这并非仅我一人

443
00:16:32,830 --> 00:16:35,669
我的学生同样跑赢市场

444
00:16:35,669 --> 00:16:41,370
只需遵循价值投资策略

445
00:16:41,370 --> 00:16:45,139
并结合正确技术分析

446
00:16:45,139 --> 00:16:45,840
你知道的

447
00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:49,600
数百名学生持续分享证言

448
00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:51,350
这是近期两位学生的反馈

449
00:16:51,350 --> 00:16:52,480
其中一个更为重要

450
00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:54,080
谁在我的鲸鱼里

451
00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:54,700
投资者汽车

452
00:16:54,700 --> 00:16:56,179
也在uip中

453
00:16:56,179 --> 00:16:58,360
这就是终极投资者策略手册

454
00:16:58,360 --> 00:16:58,990
他说

455
00:16:58,990 --> 00:16:59,470
你知道的

456
00:16:59,470 --> 00:17:00,149
顺便提一下

457
00:17:00,149 --> 00:17:02,230
我在2022年参加了你的课程

458
00:17:02,230 --> 00:17:05,470
开设了新账户并遵循了大部分教学

459
00:17:05,470 --> 00:17:07,869
三年后这就是结果

460
00:17:07,869 --> 00:17:12,118
三年来的回报率上涨了106%

461
00:17:12,118 --> 00:17:14,179
并且上涨了两

462
00:17:14,179 --> 00:17:17,420
在过去一年上涨9%

463
00:17:17,859 --> 00:17:19,579
然后我们有像Cam这样的人

464
00:17:19,579 --> 00:17:23,700
自从我的投资组合成立以来三个月

465
00:17:23,700 --> 00:17:26,170
我上涨了307%

466
00:17:26,174 --> 00:17:30,059
尽管2026年初起步平平

467
00:17:30,420 --> 00:17:31,849
这真是棒的

468
00:17:31,849 --> 00:17:32,930
这真是太棒了

469
00:17:32,930 --> 00:17:34,690
是你美好社区的重要部分

470
00:17:34,690 --> 00:17:39,089
并持续成长学习,观看每月更新和深度分析

471
00:17:39,089 --> 00:17:41,329
衷心感谢自己

472
00:17:41,329 --> 00:17:45,420
以及整个鲨鱼利润团队的辛勤工作和长期坚持

473
00:17:45,420 --> 00:17:45,859
所以再次

474
00:17:45,859 --> 00:17:48,920
我每年公布结果的原因

475
00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:54,049
学生自愿展示成果并非为了让你惊叹

476
00:17:54,049 --> 00:17:55,470
也不是炫耀给你看

477
00:17:55,470 --> 00:17:57,430
而是为了激励你

478
00:17:57,430 --> 00:17:58,940
如果我们能做到

479
00:17:58,940 --> 00:18:00,220
你也能做到

480
00:18:00,220 --> 00:18:00,819
为什么不呢

481
00:18:00,819 --> 00:18:01,299
事实上

482
00:18:01,299 --> 00:18:02,220
许多我的学生

483
00:18:02,220 --> 00:18:03,900
刚加入我的项目时

484
00:18:03,900 --> 00:18:06,699
完全没有财务背景

485
00:18:06,699 --> 00:18:09,450
零投资经验

486
00:18:09,450 --> 00:18:11,190
但保持开放心态

487
00:18:11,190 --> 00:18:12,410
他们很自律

488
00:18:12,410 --> 00:18:13,450
严格遵循规则

489
00:18:13,450 --> 00:18:15,589
并持续跑赢市场

490
00:18:15,589 --> 00:18:16,769
不仅短期有效

491
00:18:16,769 --> 00:18:18,449
长期同样出色

492
00:18:18,449 --> 00:18:19,449
就像喜欢那样

493
00:18:19,449 --> 00:18:20,028
我保证

494
00:18:20,028 --> 00:18:21,568
接下来我要展示的

495
00:18:21,568 --> 00:18:24,828
是当前市场中被低估的股票

496
00:18:24,828 --> 00:18:26,089
所以再次

497
00:18:26,089 --> 00:18:28,318
我刚联系了理查德

498
00:18:28,318 --> 00:18:32,078
他是我的研究员之一,让我来做这件事

499
00:18:32,078 --> 00:18:33,888
嗯,最近更新了

500
00:18:33,888 --> 00:18:36,929
所以这是昨天刚更新的

501
00:18:36,929 --> 00:18:39,808
对,你可以看到在标普

502
00:18:39,808 --> 00:18:40,799
五百指数

503
00:18:40,799 --> 00:18:41,420
呃

504
00:18:41,420 --> 00:18:41,640
是的

505
00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:43,059
有很多股票价格过高

506
00:18:43,059 --> 00:18:44,859
事实上大约有两

507
00:18:44,859 --> 00:18:47,420
百分之四的股票严重高估

508
00:18:47,420 --> 00:18:52,720
这意味着它们以内在价值的三十个百分点溢价出售

509
00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:55,380
五百指数中有一百二十三只股票

510
00:18:55,380 --> 00:18:59,369
对,八十一只股票或十六%严重高估

511
00:18:59,369 --> 00:19:01,049
所以这些就是现在

512
00:19:01,049 --> 00:19:02,170
你知道我们不想买入的

513
00:19:02,170 --> 00:19:03,529
即使它们可能是优质公司

514
00:19:03,529 --> 00:19:05,869
等待它们从

515
00:19:05,869 --> 00:19:06,650
呃

516
00:19:06,650 --> 00:19:10,359
从严重高估或高估到合理估值

517
00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:11,720
处于买入区间内

518
00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:13,660
或者更好在折价时买入

519
00:19:13,660 --> 00:19:15,740
这能提供更大的安全边际

520
00:19:15,740 --> 00:19:17,430
所以在标普

521
00:19:17,430 --> 00:19:21,170
目前我们有111只股票定价合理

522
00:19:21,170 --> 00:19:22,679
这意味着它们正在

523
00:19:22,679 --> 00:19:23,378
嗯

524
00:19:23,378 --> 00:19:27,378
内在价值上下百分之十的范围内

525
00:19:27,378 --> 00:19:29,920
这就是我们可以捕捉机会的地方

526
00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:32,400
我们寻找自己能力圈内的投资标的

527
00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:34,950
我们有

528
00:19:34,950 --> 00:19:35,369
呃

529
00:19:35,369 --> 00:19:35,670
八十

530
00:19:35,670 --> 00:19:37,230
八只股票处于折价状态

531
00:19:37,230 --> 00:19:39,769
九十一只股票严重折价

532
00:19:39,769 --> 00:19:40,559
再次说明

533
00:19:40,559 --> 00:19:42,259
机会始终存在

534
00:19:42,259 --> 00:19:44,759
海洋里永远有鱼

535
00:19:44,759 --> 00:19:46,460
你只需知道如何寻找

536
00:19:46,460 --> 00:19:46,839
是的

537
00:19:46,839 --> 00:19:48,659
具体来说这里

538
00:19:48,659 --> 00:19:49,439
这没问题

539
00:19:49,439 --> 00:19:52,190
这些就是当前价格过高的股票

540
00:19:52,789 --> 00:19:53,369
顺便说一句

541
00:19:53,369 --> 00:19:55,910
TJX是我非常想持有的股票

542
00:19:55,910 --> 00:19:57,490
我观察它有一段时间了

543
00:19:57,490 --> 00:19:59,500
这是一个非常简单的商业模式

544
00:19:59,500 --> 00:20:00,940
这是零售业务

545
00:20:00,940 --> 00:20:01,960
但它非常优秀

546
00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:02,720
这是一个优质业务

547
00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:03,859
但目前价格过高

548
00:20:03,859 --> 00:20:05,210
所以我正在关注这只股票

549
00:20:05,210 --> 00:20:06,869
所以当它开始

550
00:20:06,869 --> 00:20:08,839
你知道合理定价或低估

551
00:20:08,839 --> 00:20:10,180
我打算开始买入

552
00:20:10,180 --> 00:20:11,299
什么时候会发生呢

553
00:20:11,299 --> 00:20:12,779
我不知道,我无法预测

554
00:20:12,779 --> 00:20:15,160
但有一天你会被低估

555
00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:17,430
你知道还有哪些被高估的

556
00:20:17,430 --> 00:20:17,910
我们有

557
00:20:18,910 --> 00:20:19,170
是的

558
00:20:19,170 --> 00:20:21,049
特斯拉仍然严重高估

559
00:20:21,049 --> 00:20:22,109
尽管它大幅下跌

560
00:20:22,109 --> 00:20:24,309
对我来说还是太贵

561
00:20:24,309 --> 00:20:25,170
嗯

562
00:20:25,170 --> 00:20:26,269
我们有Exon

563
00:20:26,269 --> 00:20:27,349
我也很喜欢

564
00:20:27,349 --> 00:20:30,349
但价格太高,还有几个

565
00:20:30,349 --> 00:20:33,519
你可以列个清单自行查看

566
00:20:33,799 --> 00:20:36,440
然后还有被高估的股票

567
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:38,420
比如苹果被高估

568
00:20:38,700 --> 00:20:40,019
我持有股票和苹果

569
00:20:40,019 --> 00:20:40,839
我想再买更多

570
00:20:40,839 --> 00:20:41,799
但我不能再买了

571
00:20:41,799 --> 00:20:42,799
因为它被高估

572
00:20:42,799 --> 00:20:44,630
尤其是财报后暴涨

573
00:20:44,630 --> 00:20:48,250
现在亚马逊略显高估

574
00:20:48,250 --> 00:20:49,609
这不是我的主要

575
00:20:49,609 --> 00:20:50,930
这是我第二大持仓

576
00:20:50,930 --> 00:20:51,289
事实上

577
00:20:51,289 --> 00:20:53,410
但当然我是在它被低估时买入亚马逊

578
00:20:53,410 --> 00:20:55,029
但现在不能再买了

579
00:20:55,029 --> 00:20:58,028
因为它现在被高估了

580
00:20:58,028 --> 00:20:59,949
还有定价合理的股票

581
00:20:59,949 --> 00:21:03,460
你可以在这里看到被低估的股票

582
00:21:03,460 --> 00:21:03,980
嗯

583
00:21:03,980 --> 00:21:08,059
在这里,还有极度低估的股票在这里

584
00:21:08,059 --> 00:21:10,150
正如我之前多次强调

585
00:21:10,150 --> 00:21:11,829
不要只因为便宜就买入股票

586
00:21:11,829 --> 00:21:13,049
因为廉价垃圾仍是垃圾

587
00:21:13,049 --> 00:21:16,469
好吧

588
00:21:16,469 --> 00:21:17,088
低价可能变得更便宜

589
00:21:17,088 --> 00:21:19,729
必须确保不仅被低估

590
00:21:19,729 --> 00:21:22,009
它必须是优质企业

591
00:21:22,009 --> 00:21:29,710
符合高ROE等投资标准

592
00:21:29,710 --> 00:21:32,630
高ROI,强劲商业模式

593
00:21:32,630 --> 00:21:34,250
收入利润持续增长

594
00:21:34,250 --> 00:21:35,549
等等等等

595
00:21:35,549 --> 00:21:35,950
你知道的

596
00:21:35,950 --> 00:21:38,920
这些都是我教学生的内容

597
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,759
在我们社区交流的时光里

598
00:21:41,759 --> 00:21:43,059
深度研究分析

599
00:21:43,059 --> 00:21:44,640
当然还有神谕

600
00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:47,940
你可以轻松检查一家企业的基本面

601
00:21:48,980 --> 00:21:50,059
如果你看一张图表

602
00:21:50,059 --> 00:21:50,579
例如

603
00:21:50,579 --> 00:21:54,190
另一只目前严重被低估的股票是ServiceNow

604
00:21:54,190 --> 00:21:55,990
为什么它被低估

605
00:21:55,990 --> 00:22:00,440
因为有人预测我会颠覆所有软件公司

606
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,359
但事实并不支持这一点

607
00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:06,839
事实显示公司正以显著速度复利增长

608
00:22:06,839 --> 00:22:08,299
如果你看ServiceNow

609
00:22:08,299 --> 00:22:08,819
例如

610
00:22:08,819 --> 00:22:11,019
让我们看看ServiceNow

611
00:22:13,799 --> 00:22:14,359
是的

612
00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:15,500
大幅回调

613
00:22:15,500 --> 00:22:17,519
但若看基本面

614
00:22:17,519 --> 00:22:18,319
呃

615
00:22:18,319 --> 00:22:18,839
立刻就能看到

616
00:22:18,839 --> 00:22:20,940
在可预测性方面

617
00:22:20,940 --> 00:22:23,000
高盈利性

618
00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:23,819
中等水平

619
00:22:23,819 --> 00:22:24,599
还算不错

620
00:22:24,599 --> 00:22:25,000
增长

621
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:25,990
高速增长

622
00:22:25,990 --> 00:22:26,730
经济

623
00:22:26,730 --> 00:22:27,650
更强劲

624
00:22:27,650 --> 00:22:29,410
更强的财务实力

625
00:22:29,410 --> 00:22:32,549
中等估值偏高

626
00:22:32,549 --> 00:22:34,230
这意味着严重被低估

627
00:22:34,230 --> 00:22:35,039
目前

628
00:22:35,039 --> 00:22:36,319
你会更具体说明

629
00:22:36,319 --> 00:22:37,319
你可以查看

630
00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:42,490
七七个百分点

631
00:22:42,490 --> 00:22:45,190
之后十九点

632
00:22:45,190 --> 00:22:45,990
四一个百分点

633
00:22:45,990 --> 00:22:52,289
这些预测已考虑基因AI可能带来的颠覆

634
00:22:52,289 --> 00:22:53,369
但截至目前

635
00:22:53,369 --> 00:22:54,609
没有实质性证据

636
00:22:54,609 --> 00:22:57,490
若看这里的财务数据

637
00:22:57,890 --> 00:22:58,809
再次可以看到

638
00:22:58,809 --> 00:23:00,269
他们刚公布亮眼财报

639
00:23:00,269 --> 00:23:01,240
丰厚利润

640
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:01,720
你知道的

641
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:03,579
收入持续稳定增长

642
00:23:03,579 --> 00:23:06,900
运营现金流持续稳定增长

643
00:23:06,900 --> 00:23:09,420
自由现金流持续稳定增长

644
00:23:09,420 --> 00:23:11,000
但股价却下跌

645
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:11,740
为什么呢

646
00:23:11,740 --> 00:23:13,779
因为市场情绪

647
00:23:13,779 --> 00:23:15,180
市场情绪

648
00:23:15,180 --> 00:23:18,559
如果你看一下这里的内在价值

649
00:23:19,499 --> 00:23:21,499
你可以看到使用你知道的

650
00:23:21,499 --> 00:23:21,818
折现

651
00:23:21,818 --> 00:23:23,099
自由现金流

652
00:23:23,099 --> 00:23:26,279
股票价值为234美元

653
00:23:26,279 --> 00:23:30,470
而目前它以91美元的价格在售

654
00:23:30,470 --> 00:23:33,950
你知道这比折现价低了近一半

655
00:23:33,950 --> 00:23:34,789
自由现金流

656
00:23:34,789 --> 00:23:40,710
即使当Oracle公司更加保守并调整部分数据时

657
00:23:40,710 --> 00:23:42,690
Oracle估值为205美元

658
00:23:42,690 --> 00:23:43,630
而这同样

659
00:23:43,630 --> 00:23:44,890
远低于这个价位

660
00:23:44,890 --> 00:23:46,789
所以再次有这些机会存在

661
00:23:46,789 --> 00:23:47,750
请仔细查看

662
00:23:47,750 --> 00:23:48,029
并且

663
00:23:48,029 --> 00:23:51,130
当然要记住仓位管理

664
00:23:51,130 --> 00:23:52,089
仓位规模同样重要

665
00:23:52,089 --> 00:23:53,529
确保正确调整仓位规模

666
00:23:53,529 --> 00:23:54,380
准确无误

667
00:23:54,380 --> 00:23:56,859
买入优质公司并让其复利增长

668
00:23:56,859 --> 00:23:57,759
感谢您的聆听

669
00:23:57,759 --> 00:23:59,960
一如既往,愿市场与您同在

670
00:23:59,960 --> 00:24:01,720
如果您想观看我的最新视频

671
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:03,160
请点击订阅按钮

672
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:05,049
现在点击铃铛图标

673
00:24:05,049 --> 00:24:06,490
以便即时接收通知

674
00:24:06,490 --> 00:24:08,789
当我上传最新视频时

675
00:24:08,789 --> 00:24:11,130
如果您想了解我的在线课程

676
00:24:11,130 --> 00:24:13,380
访问piranha profits.com

677
00:24:13,380 --> 00:24:16,660
我们将学习如何投资和应对金融市场

678
00:24:16,660 --> 00:24:19,589
并从全球各地创造收入

679
00:24:19,589 --> 00:24:23,009
如果您想加入我的实时财富学院项目

680
00:24:23,009 --> 00:24:25,349
前往wealth academy global.

681
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:32,019
我是Adam Cool,愿市场与您同在
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