1
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就在几天前
2
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在伯克希尔哈撒韦年度股东大会期间
3
00:00:03,839 --> 00:00:05,940
沃伦·巴菲特再次表示
4
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呃
5
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股市价格过高,他看不到任何值得买入的机会
6
00:00:10,638 --> 00:00:11,538
而如今
7
00:00:11,538 --> 00:00:16,920
他的公司已累积超过3970亿美元现金
8
00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:18,960
却没有任何可投资标的
9
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这对投资者来说是否意味着应该退出市场
10
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不要买入任何东西
11
00:00:23,559 --> 00:00:25,640
因为你知道市场过于昂贵
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嗯
13
00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:29,109
让我们在本视频中探讨这个问题
14
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我知道
15
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许多长期远离股市的人
16
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他们错过了市场的大幅上涨行情
17
00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:47,539
通过持有现金
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仅仅观察其购买力
19
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他写道由于通货膨胀
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00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:53,520
而他们给出的理由是
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哦
22
00:00:53,679 --> 00:00:55,119
股市过于昂贵
23
00:00:55,119 --> 00:00:56,479
这不是新鲜事
24
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他们已持续说上两三年
25
00:00:59,700 --> 00:01:01,060
有些人甚至四年
26
00:01:01,060 --> 00:01:01,899
当你询问他们
27
00:01:01,899 --> 00:01:03,119
为什么市场过于昂贵
28
00:01:03,119 --> 00:01:03,560
他们会说
29
00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:04,599
看看沃伦·巴菲特
30
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他是世界上最伟大的投资者之一
31
00:01:06,728 --> 00:01:08,289
对此我并不认同
32
00:01:08,289 --> 00:01:12,530
我是巴菲特的忠实追随者已有一段时间
33
00:01:12,530 --> 00:01:16,189
我认为过去一年多他一直在净抛售股票
34
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而非买入
35
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他也长期表示
36
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你知道现在没有什么可买的
37
00:01:21,870 --> 00:01:22,629
他们开始迪拜
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是
39
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没有什么可买的
40
00:01:23,609 --> 00:01:26,670
而就在几天前他又重申了这一点
41
00:01:26,670 --> 00:01:29,269
通过指出股价过高
42
00:01:29,269 --> 00:01:32,489
如今的股市看起来更像赌场
43
00:01:32,489 --> 00:01:33,849
而非教堂
44
00:01:33,849 --> 00:01:35,930
他希望像教堂一样让投资者保持忠诚
45
00:01:35,930 --> 00:01:37,049
并且忠诚
46
00:01:37,049 --> 00:01:39,638
但赌场则是来去匆匆
47
00:01:39,638 --> 00:01:46,209
因此他的公司现在已累积3970亿美元现金
48
00:01:46,209 --> 00:01:50,549
因此有人将其解读为强烈的看跌信号
49
00:01:50,549 --> 00:01:53,609
他认为这是
50
00:01:53,609 --> 00:01:55,909
他在说现在一切过于昂贵
51
00:01:55,909 --> 00:01:57,890
他正在等待市场崩盘
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00:01:57,890 --> 00:02:00,980
人们认为巴菲特在预测崩盘
53
00:02:00,980 --> 00:02:03,260
这就是他现在持有大量现金的原因
54
00:02:03,260 --> 00:02:06,239
对于一位忠实的巴菲特追随者
55
00:02:06,239 --> 00:02:08,520
对于读过他所有著作的人
56
00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:10,319
我反复观看过这些视频很多次
57
00:02:10,319 --> 00:02:13,430
我关注巴菲特已有三十年
58
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关于理解巴菲特理念的一点
59
00:02:17,169 --> 00:02:20,659
他根本不试图预测市场
60
00:02:20,659 --> 00:02:21,120
你知道吗
61
00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:24,120
他总说我不知道下周市场会怎样
62
00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:26,229
下个月、明年都毫无头绪
63
00:02:26,229 --> 00:02:30,550
但他所做的是只买入优质公司
64
00:02:30,930 --> 00:02:34,569
那些他理解的高质量公司
65
00:02:34,569 --> 00:02:36,150
当它们被低估时
66
00:02:36,150 --> 00:02:38,370
所以他没有买入任何东西的原因
67
00:02:38,370 --> 00:02:40,689
他持有大量现金是因为坦白说
68
00:02:40,689 --> 00:02:41,389
是的
69
00:02:41,389 --> 00:02:44,349
他找不到被低估的机会
70
00:02:44,349 --> 00:02:45,009
你知道的
71
00:02:45,009 --> 00:02:46,830
但另一方面人们看着我
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00:02:46,830 --> 00:02:47,169
说亚当
73
00:02:47,169 --> 00:02:51,150
但为什么你在买入呢 对我的社区成员
74
00:02:51,150 --> 00:02:53,069
我的终极投资者指南
75
00:02:53,069 --> 00:02:54,629
你每天收到我的提醒
76
00:02:54,629 --> 00:02:58,318
你知道我几乎每天都在买入股票
77
00:02:58,318 --> 00:03:00,338
我每天都在交易期权
78
00:03:00,338 --> 00:03:05,689
现在市场上有很多优质公司
79
00:03:05,689 --> 00:03:07,650
所以为什么有这种差异
80
00:03:07,650 --> 00:03:08,370
你明白的
81
00:03:08,370 --> 00:03:08,729
人们说
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00:03:08,729 --> 00:03:09,689
你不也是价值投资者吗
83
00:03:09,689 --> 00:03:11,069
你不也是巴菲特风格吗
84
00:03:11,069 --> 00:03:11,810
是的
85
00:03:11,810 --> 00:03:13,930
但为什么我有东西可买
86
00:03:13,930 --> 00:03:16,419
而他却没有可买的东西
87
00:03:16,419 --> 00:03:18,778
我想解释的三个原因
88
00:03:18,778 --> 00:03:24,789
以及那些观看巴菲特并认为应该看空的人
89
00:03:24,789 --> 00:03:27,650
为何可能误判形势
90
00:03:27,650 --> 00:03:28,449
好的
91
00:03:28,449 --> 00:03:29,270
所以原因
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00:03:29,270 --> 00:03:29,689
第一个原因
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00:03:29,689 --> 00:03:30,449
如果你了解
94
00:03:30,449 --> 00:03:31,009
沃伦·巴菲特
95
00:03:31,009 --> 00:03:33,889
你会知道巴菲特的纪律
96
00:03:33,889 --> 00:03:37,530
他的原则是只投资熟悉的业务
97
00:03:37,530 --> 00:03:42,030
在他能力圈内的企业
98
00:03:42,030 --> 00:03:44,020
他曾多次表示
99
00:03:44,020 --> 00:03:47,459
他不懂科技
100
00:03:47,459 --> 00:03:48,998
因为他不使用这些技术
101
00:03:48,998 --> 00:03:52,400
多年来他以只用翻盖手机而闻名
102
00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:53,599
当他购买苹果公司时
103
00:03:53,599 --> 00:03:56,079
蒂姆·库克给了他一部iPhone
104
00:03:56,079 --> 00:04:00,118
但直到今天他只用iPhone打电话
105
00:04:00,118 --> 00:04:03,030
他甚至不知道如何使用
106
00:04:03,030 --> 00:04:03,689
呃
107
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短信功能
108
00:04:04,189 --> 00:04:07,699
他不用像Messenger或社交媒体
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他根本不使用这些
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对吧
111
00:04:09,079 --> 00:04:09,799
因为他不感兴趣
112
00:04:09,799 --> 00:04:14,289
过去六十年他办公桌上连电脑都没有
113
00:04:14,289 --> 00:04:15,810
所以他不懂科技
114
00:04:15,810 --> 00:04:17,649
他自己也承认过
115
00:04:18,730 --> 00:04:19,329
你知道的
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00:04:19,329 --> 00:04:23,730
事实上他唯一投资的科技公司是多年前的IBM
117
00:04:23,730 --> 00:04:25,569
那次他还亏了钱
118
00:04:25,569 --> 00:04:27,009
因为他坦言我买了
119
00:04:27,009 --> 00:04:27,730
我不懂的东西
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从那时起
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在这方面
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现在
123
00:04:30,870 --> 00:04:31,949
有些人可能会问苹果呢
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00:04:31,949 --> 00:04:33,810
你现在从苹果赚了那么多钱
125
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如果仔细想想
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在他看来
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00:04:36,029 --> 00:04:38,329
苹果对我来说不是科技公司
128
00:04:38,329 --> 00:04:42,949
苹果是人们沉迷的消费产品公司
129
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他收购苹果的原因
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是因为曾有曾孙女对他说
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我离不开我的iPhone
132
00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:51,779
我离不开我的iPad
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对吧
134
00:04:51,939 --> 00:04:55,000
他意识到苹果已成为必需品公司
135
00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:56,720
人们离不开它
136
00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:57,279
你知道的
137
00:04:57,279 --> 00:04:58,660
这就是他收购苹果的原因
138
00:04:58,660 --> 00:04:59,319
对他而言
139
00:04:59,319 --> 00:05:01,579
苹果不是科技公司对吧
140
00:05:01,579 --> 00:05:04,620
像谷歌、微软和英伟达
141
00:05:04,620 --> 00:05:06,420
这些是他不懂的科技公司
142
00:05:06,420 --> 00:05:07,370
是的
143
00:05:07,370 --> 00:05:13,189
所以他只投资南方铁路公司
144
00:05:13,189 --> 00:05:14,750
这些是大型蓝筹股
145
00:05:14,750 --> 00:05:15,810
大型企业
146
00:05:15,810 --> 00:05:17,029
成熟企业
147
00:05:17,029 --> 00:05:19,790
其中大部分是传统产业公司
148
00:05:19,790 --> 00:05:20,990
比如铁路
149
00:05:20,990 --> 00:05:22,089
工业公司
150
00:05:22,089 --> 00:05:25,540
保险业这是他的专长
151
00:05:25,540 --> 00:05:28,798
如果你看看他领域内的许多公司
152
00:05:28,798 --> 00:05:29,939
我同意他的观点
153
00:05:29,939 --> 00:05:33,598
现在它们的价格严重虚高
154
00:05:33,598 --> 00:05:36,230
事实上过去几年它们一直被高估
155
00:05:36,230 --> 00:05:36,870
例如
156
00:05:36,870 --> 00:05:38,170
看看可口可乐
157
00:05:38,170 --> 00:05:42,290
他拥有的、符合其领域标准的公司之一
158
00:05:42,290 --> 00:05:45,730
可口可乐目前市盈率仅为2倍
159
00:05:45,730 --> 00:05:46,550
五倍
160
00:05:46,550 --> 00:05:51,319
你知道这对科技公司来说实在太贵了
161
00:05:51,319 --> 00:05:51,860
好的
162
00:05:51,860 --> 00:05:52,870
沃尔玛
163
00:05:52,870 --> 00:05:56,110
符合他标准的同类公司市盈率在4倍
164
00:05:56,110 --> 00:05:59,870
成本市盈率在5倍
165
00:05:59,870 --> 00:06:01,810
市盈率两倍疯狂
166
00:06:01,810 --> 00:06:02,329
顺便说一句
167
00:06:02,329 --> 00:06:03,620
这些都是优质公司
168
00:06:03,620 --> 00:06:05,439
我也很想买入
169
00:06:05,439 --> 00:06:06,379
但对我来说
170
00:06:06,379 --> 00:06:08,480
这家公司估值太高了
171
00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:11,550
按照穆迪的估值方式
172
00:06:11,550 --> 00:06:12,459
呃
173
00:06:12,459 --> 00:06:14,319
金融公司市盈率3倍
174
00:06:14,319 --> 00:06:17,180
三倍市盈率疯狂昂贵
175
00:06:17,180 --> 00:06:18,300
现在银行的情况如何
176
00:06:18,300 --> 00:06:18,740
对于银行
177
00:06:18,740 --> 00:06:20,100
我们不使用市盈率
178
00:06:20,100 --> 00:06:22,259
而是用市净率
179
00:06:22,259 --> 00:06:23,738
以摩根大通为例
180
00:06:23,738 --> 00:06:24,478
例如
181
00:06:24,478 --> 00:06:28,209
市净率高达2.43倍
182
00:06:28,209 --> 00:06:28,709
简直疯狂
183
00:06:28,709 --> 00:06:30,310
我也想持有摩根大通
184
00:06:30,310 --> 00:06:31,910
但价格太高了
185
00:06:31,910 --> 00:06:32,730
是啊
186
00:06:32,730 --> 00:06:37,699
所以这就像海洋缓冲区
187
00:06:37,699 --> 00:06:40,889
只有特定区域有鱼
188
00:06:40,889 --> 00:06:43,009
我只在特定区域捕鱼
189
00:06:43,009 --> 00:06:46,170
所以你看这片海洋是深是浅
190
00:06:46,170 --> 00:06:50,139
海洋某些区域浅某些区域深
191
00:06:50,139 --> 00:06:52,740
当他称市场过贵时
192
00:06:52,740 --> 00:06:55,519
他是在说整个海洋太浅
193
00:06:55,519 --> 00:06:57,879
他在某些区域是对的
194
00:06:57,879 --> 00:06:58,339
明白
195
00:06:58,339 --> 00:07:00,220
但他避开那些区域
196
00:07:00,220 --> 00:07:03,149
讽刺的是现在许多科技公司
197
00:07:03,149 --> 00:07:03,389
嗯
198
00:07:03,389 --> 00:07:04,490
不能说全部
199
00:07:04,490 --> 00:07:09,939
但许多严重低估的公司其实存在
200
00:07:09,939 --> 00:07:12,000
这也是他看不到的原因
201
00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:14,529
因为它不在他的核心能力范围内
202
00:07:14,529 --> 00:07:15,089
当然
203
00:07:15,089 --> 00:07:16,230
正如我多次提到的
204
00:07:16,230 --> 00:07:19,000
市盈率单独来看可能非常误导
205
00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:22,220
我们必须关注盈利增长和现金流增长
206
00:07:22,220 --> 00:07:23,860
所以我们来看福特的市盈率
207
00:07:23,860 --> 00:07:26,029
这就是所谓的现金流倍数以获得更清晰
208
00:07:26,029 --> 00:07:26,810
更全面的图景
209
00:07:26,810 --> 00:07:28,839
没错,如果你看股票oracle
210
00:07:28,839 --> 00:07:31,639
可以给你更详细的画面,同样
211
00:07:31,639 --> 00:07:34,319
让我们看看Buffer会买入的股票
212
00:07:34,319 --> 00:07:36,459
你知道,Costco是优秀公司
213
00:07:36,459 --> 00:07:37,720
我很想拥有Costco
214
00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:41,160
但看市盈率仍是五倍左右
215
00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:41,879
毫无意义
216
00:07:41,879 --> 00:07:44,869
我看福特的市盈率是四倍
217
00:07:44,869 --> 00:07:49,329
这家公司增长约8-7%
218
00:07:49,329 --> 00:07:52,300
一家年增长7-8%的公司
219
00:07:52,300 --> 00:07:54,540
但市盈率却高达40-50
220
00:07:54,540 --> 00:07:55,980
这价格相当昂贵
221
00:07:55,980 --> 00:07:58,000
再看内在价值
222
00:07:58,000 --> 00:07:58,800
你知道的
223
00:07:58,800 --> 00:07:59,220
呃
224
00:07:59,220 --> 00:08:01,459
如果看现金流折现
225
00:08:01,459 --> 00:08:03,100
折现自由现金流
226
00:08:03,100 --> 00:08:06,509
可以看到仅值约488美元
227
00:08:06,509 --> 00:08:09,490
但股价现在一千美元
228
00:08:09,490 --> 00:08:09,769
没错
229
00:08:09,769 --> 00:08:13,709
市场支付价格与实际存在巨大差距
230
00:08:13,709 --> 00:08:14,750
和呃
231
00:08:14,750 --> 00:08:18,560
你未来二十年收到的现金流折现
232
00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:19,199
呃
233
00:08:19,199 --> 00:08:20,720
未来二十年
234
00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:21,899
让我们看看
235
00:08:21,899 --> 00:08:22,259
呃
236
00:08:22,259 --> 00:08:22,839
沃尔玛
237
00:08:22,839 --> 00:08:23,339
同样情况
238
00:08:23,339 --> 00:08:26,170
沃尔玛长期增长约8%
239
00:08:26,170 --> 00:08:27,329
9-8%
240
00:08:27,329 --> 00:08:27,870
长期来看
241
00:08:27,870 --> 00:08:30,550
以4.8倍市盈率出售
242
00:08:30,550 --> 00:08:32,669
前向市盈率40倍
243
00:08:32,669 --> 00:08:36,600
看自由现金流折现
244
00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:38,340
仅值39美元
245
00:08:38,340 --> 00:08:41,019
而股价是一百三十一美元
246
00:08:41,019 --> 00:08:41,639
好的
247
00:08:41,639 --> 00:08:42,460
差距巨大
248
00:08:42,460 --> 00:08:42,799
你知道的
249
00:08:42,799 --> 00:08:43,379
所以他没错
250
00:08:43,379 --> 00:08:48,029
市场对这类公司定价疯狂昂贵
251
00:08:48,029 --> 00:08:49,850
再看看可口可乐
252
00:08:49,850 --> 00:08:51,669
有些他持有多年
253
00:08:51,669 --> 00:08:54,210
嗯,可口可乐增长率从6%
254
00:08:54,210 --> 00:08:56,210
降至4.5%
255
00:08:56,210 --> 00:08:57,789
长期持有它
256
00:08:57,789 --> 00:08:59,029
你知道两四倍
257
00:08:59,029 --> 00:09:00,549
PE四倍
258
00:09:00,549 --> 00:09:01,419
两倍
259
00:09:01,419 --> 00:09:03,419
如果你做现金流折现分析
260
00:09:03,419 --> 00:09:05,120
自由现金流价值约
261
00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:05,659
你知道的
262
00:09:05,659 --> 00:09:07,659
四九五美元
263
00:09:07,659 --> 00:09:08,019
对吧
264
00:09:08,019 --> 00:09:10,129
最多四九五八美元
265
00:09:10,129 --> 00:09:11,169
但当前股价
266
00:09:11,169 --> 00:09:12,470
是78美元
267
00:09:12,470 --> 00:09:14,950
但并非所有公司都贵
268
00:09:14,950 --> 00:09:17,860
有些公司实际被低估
269
00:09:17,860 --> 00:09:21,179
这些只是巴菲特不感兴趣的
270
00:09:21,179 --> 00:09:22,970
超出能力圈范围
271
00:09:22,970 --> 00:09:27,679
当然其中一家是每天使用的公司
272
00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:30,059
我的公司投入巨资广告
273
00:09:30,059 --> 00:09:31,879
或每天使用这个产品
274
00:09:31,879 --> 00:09:36,519
36亿人每天使用且增长
275
00:09:36,519 --> 00:09:39,090
是Meta平台公司
276
00:09:39,870 --> 00:09:43,279
Messenger和Instagram
277
00:09:43,279 --> 00:09:44,659
没错,看Meta平台
278
00:09:44,659 --> 00:09:45,779
例如
279
00:09:45,779 --> 00:09:47,519
再看
280
00:09:47,519 --> 00:09:47,980
嗯
281
00:09:47,980 --> 00:09:48,919
折现
282
00:09:48,919 --> 00:09:49,639
嗯
283
00:09:49,639 --> 00:09:50,639
自由现金流
284
00:09:50,639 --> 00:09:55,019
可见其价值749美元
285
00:09:55,019 --> 00:09:58,399
当前股价608美元
286
00:09:58,399 --> 00:09:59,779
明显被低估
287
00:09:59,779 --> 00:10:00,000
现在
288
00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:06,500
需注意此749美元折现自由现金流
289
00:10:06,940 --> 00:10:08,860
若展示实际计算过程
290
00:10:08,860 --> 00:10:10,220
可在此看到
291
00:10:10,220 --> 00:10:11,139
对
292
00:10:11,139 --> 00:10:16,549
基于近期自由现金流
293
00:10:16,830 --> 00:10:21,049
扣除大量资本扩张
294
00:10:21,049 --> 00:10:22,549
正如所知
295
00:10:22,549 --> 00:10:24,419
已增加资本开支
296
00:10:24,419 --> 00:10:24,940
嗯
297
00:10:24,940 --> 00:10:26,980
因AI数据中心投入
298
00:10:26,980 --> 00:10:28,820
让我展示具体数据
299
00:10:28,820 --> 00:10:29,460
嗯
300
00:10:29,460 --> 00:10:31,700
就在那边
301
00:10:34,940 --> 00:10:35,460
是的
302
00:10:35,460 --> 00:10:38,940
所以你可以看到资本支出最近大幅增加
303
00:10:38,940 --> 00:10:40,700
没错因为这个原因
304
00:10:40,700 --> 00:10:44,039
这就是导致自由现金流的原因
305
00:10:44,039 --> 00:10:45,259
让我给你展示一下
306
00:10:45,259 --> 00:10:45,720
呃
307
00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:47,500
自由现金流
308
00:10:52,379 --> 00:10:53,379
这里更清晰
309
00:10:53,379 --> 00:10:53,779
对的
310
00:10:53,779 --> 00:10:55,299
看看自由现金流
311
00:10:55,299 --> 00:10:58,419
自由现金流实际上正在下降
312
00:10:58,419 --> 00:11:02,700
由于额外的资本支出导致下降
313
00:11:02,700 --> 00:11:07,929
但即使有自由现金流下降的情况
314
00:11:08,330 --> 00:11:13,928
根据最近的自由现金流达到七百四十九
315
00:11:13,928 --> 00:11:14,389
现在
316
00:11:14,389 --> 00:11:15,389
你可能会问
317
00:11:15,389 --> 00:11:18,048
为什么存在这种估值
318
00:11:18,048 --> 00:11:18,349
顺便说一句
319
00:11:18,349 --> 00:11:22,828
估值模型是计算人工智能
320
00:11:22,828 --> 00:11:25,668
它认为的内在公平价值
321
00:11:25,668 --> 00:11:28,469
当前估值模型显示九百美元
322
00:11:28,469 --> 00:11:30,169
为什么更高
323
00:11:30,169 --> 00:11:34,090
为什么估值达到九百美元高于常规折现
324
00:11:34,090 --> 00:11:34,929
自由现金流
325
00:11:34,929 --> 00:11:36,049
因为估值模型
326
00:11:36,049 --> 00:11:40,389
它会将资本支出进行标准化
327
00:11:40,389 --> 00:11:45,059
取过去五年平均资本支出进行标准化
328
00:11:45,059 --> 00:11:47,539
取当前运营现金流
329
00:11:47,539 --> 00:11:51,839
减去五年平均资本支出得到标准化自由现金流
330
00:11:51,839 --> 00:11:54,019
对我来说
331
00:11:54,019 --> 00:11:56,490
我认为估值应为九百美元
332
00:11:56,490 --> 00:11:58,490
因此明显被低估
333
00:11:58,490 --> 00:11:59,429
如果看数据
334
00:12:05,279 --> 00:12:12,169
以福特市盈率仅七十倍即可实现约十四增长
335
00:12:12,169 --> 00:12:12,690
是的
336
00:12:12,690 --> 00:12:16,970
我认为Meta平台是当前严重低估的伟大公司之一
337
00:12:16,970 --> 00:12:18,269
当然不止一家
338
00:12:18,269 --> 00:12:19,250
还有几家
339
00:12:19,250 --> 00:12:21,830
稍后我会展示图表
340
00:12:21,830 --> 00:12:23,269
但让我们回到这个话题
341
00:12:23,269 --> 00:12:28,149
首先原因可能因人而异
342
00:12:28,149 --> 00:12:29,529
我们都可以正确
343
00:12:29,529 --> 00:12:31,350
他可能认为价格过高
344
00:12:31,350 --> 00:12:33,369
在他所在区域是对的
345
00:12:33,369 --> 00:12:36,308
我则认为价格偏低
346
00:12:36,308 --> 00:12:37,688
海洋实在太大了
347
00:12:37,688 --> 00:12:37,928
是的
348
00:12:37,928 --> 00:12:40,720
另外当你看到他持有大量现金
349
00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:46,230
还记得他的伯克希尔公司本质上是一家保险公司
350
00:12:46,230 --> 00:12:48,330
实际上将许多保险公司整合为一家
351
00:12:48,330 --> 00:12:50,269
他还是一家再保险公司
352
00:12:50,269 --> 00:12:53,599
这意味着他为其他保险公司提供保障
353
00:12:53,599 --> 00:12:57,038
作为全球最大保险公司之一
354
00:12:57,038 --> 00:13:02,960
他必须始终持有足够现金以应对飓风
355
00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:07,730
战争以及三西格玛级别的突发事件
356
00:13:07,730 --> 00:13:10,349
确保有足够的资金支付所有索赔
357
00:13:10,349 --> 00:13:14,179
大量现金并非战术性操作
358
00:13:14,179 --> 00:13:19,679
而是结构性需求必须时刻保持
359
00:13:19,679 --> 00:13:25,480
第三点需要牢记的是如果你盲目跟随
360
00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:26,679
不了解原因地模仿他的做法
361
00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:34,269
在财富积累过程中会错过大量收益
362
00:13:34,629 --> 00:13:36,669
在2020年
363
00:13:36,669 --> 00:13:38,889
回想2020年当
364
00:13:38,889 --> 00:13:39,409
嗯
365
00:13:39,409 --> 00:13:40,090
疫情期间
366
00:13:40,090 --> 00:13:42,000
市场大幅下跌时
367
00:13:42,399 --> 00:13:42,940
嗯
368
00:13:42,940 --> 00:13:45,379
我认为下跌了35%以上
369
00:13:45,379 --> 00:13:46,120
你知道的
370
00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:48,759
伯克希尔当时没有大幅买入
371
00:13:48,759 --> 00:13:53,500
此后市场从该点位上涨250%
372
00:13:53,500 --> 00:13:54,480
正如你们所知
373
00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:56,440
我进行了大量买入
374
00:13:56,440 --> 00:14:00,720
许多观看我视频的观众也是如此
375
00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:04,159
2022年又出现熊市
376
00:14:04,159 --> 00:14:05,960
市场再次下跌
377
00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:07,460
约25%
378
00:14:07,460 --> 00:14:10,009
他同样未进行买入
379
00:14:10,009 --> 00:14:14,259
此后市场从该点位上涨100%
380
00:14:14,259 --> 00:14:16,159
你在这里可以翻倍资产
381
00:14:16,159 --> 00:14:18,529
几乎可以三倍增长
382
00:14:18,529 --> 00:14:21,029
更近期的2025年
383
00:14:21,029 --> 00:14:22,970
特朗普提出
384
00:14:22,970 --> 00:14:24,490
全球关税政策
385
00:14:24,490 --> 00:14:26,210
再次解放日
386
00:14:26,210 --> 00:14:28,339
市场下跌20%
387
00:14:28,339 --> 00:14:29,698
他同样未采取行动
388
00:14:29,698 --> 00:14:31,859
但如果你当时买入股票
389
00:14:31,859 --> 00:14:32,839
在低位时布局
390
00:14:32,839 --> 00:14:33,578
我再说一遍
391
00:14:33,578 --> 00:14:34,940
在低位买入优质股票
392
00:14:34,940 --> 00:14:36,059
你知道现在市场已回升
393
00:14:36,059 --> 00:14:37,620
从该点位上涨51%
394
00:14:37,620 --> 00:14:37,899
你知道的
395
00:14:37,899 --> 00:14:40,509
必须非常谨慎
396
00:14:40,509 --> 00:14:41,190
你知道的
397
00:14:41,190 --> 00:14:44,549
不要盲目跟随他人操作
398
00:14:44,549 --> 00:14:47,970
让我再次强调我是巴菲特忠实信徒
399
00:14:47,970 --> 00:14:50,419
他是我真正的导师
400
00:14:50,419 --> 00:14:51,440
所以啊
401
00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:53,100
完全没有对他不敬
402
00:14:53,100 --> 00:14:56,000
但我要说的是我非常密切地追随他
403
00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:57,950
在哲学层面
404
00:14:57,950 --> 00:15:01,809
其核心理念是专注于自己的能力圈
405
00:15:01,809 --> 00:15:03,960
即你真正理解的事物
406
00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:04,799
即你熟悉的公司
407
00:15:04,799 --> 00:15:07,568
其产品和服务是你自己使用的
408
00:15:07,568 --> 00:15:10,149
并计算自身的内在价值
409
00:15:10,149 --> 00:15:12,349
或者可以借助可靠的工具辅助
410
00:15:12,349 --> 00:15:14,818
仅在被低估时出手
411
00:15:14,818 --> 00:15:18,119
并耐心等待复利增长
412
00:15:18,119 --> 00:15:20,778
这就是我遵循的理念
413
00:15:20,778 --> 00:15:24,470
并非单纯复制他的操作
414
00:15:24,470 --> 00:15:26,210
仅通过遵循他的理念
415
00:15:26,210 --> 00:15:30,039
叠加自身核心能力
416
00:15:30,039 --> 00:15:33,129
我已显著跑赢市场
417
00:15:33,129 --> 00:15:35,830
事实上从伯克希尔以来
418
00:15:35,830 --> 00:15:36,110
你知道的
419
00:15:36,110 --> 00:15:36,730
过去几年
420
00:15:36,730 --> 00:15:37,350
你可以看到
421
00:15:37,350 --> 00:15:41,100
过去七年从2019年至今
422
00:15:41,100 --> 00:15:42,820
我的投资组合增值
423
00:15:42,820 --> 00:15:43,139
呃
424
00:15:43,139 --> 00:15:45,328
249%
425
00:15:45,328 --> 00:15:45,928
呃
426
00:15:45,928 --> 00:15:47,568
超越标普500指数
427
00:15:47,568 --> 00:15:48,668
绿色曲线显示
428
00:15:48,668 --> 00:15:50,509
高于伯克希尔哈撒韦
429
00:15:50,509 --> 00:15:51,708
黄色曲线代表
430
00:15:51,708 --> 00:15:53,970
正如我之前展示的
431
00:15:53,970 --> 00:15:55,590
今年一月
432
00:15:55,590 --> 00:16:00,350
我实际上从联名账户撤出99%资金
433
00:16:00,350 --> 00:16:03,849
可见净资产大幅下降
434
00:16:03,849 --> 00:16:08,059
因为我转入新私人有限公司账户
435
00:16:08,059 --> 00:16:09,899
为避免遗产税问题
436
00:16:09,899 --> 00:16:10,220
对吧
437
00:16:10,220 --> 00:16:14,210
这是原账户撤出99%资金
438
00:16:14,210 --> 00:16:17,120
留1%继续产生收益
439
00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:22,070
这是新账户今年一月设立
440
00:16:22,070 --> 00:16:26,110
新私人有限公司账户上涨10.76%
441
00:16:26,110 --> 00:16:30,649
年化收益率远超市场
442
00:16:30,649 --> 00:16:32,830
最棒的是这并非仅我一人
443
00:16:32,830 --> 00:16:35,669
我的学生同样跑赢市场
444
00:16:35,669 --> 00:16:41,370
只需遵循价值投资策略
445
00:16:41,370 --> 00:16:45,139
并结合正确技术分析
446
00:16:45,139 --> 00:16:45,840
你知道的
447
00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:49,600
数百名学生持续分享证言
448
00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:51,350
这是近期两位学生的反馈
449
00:16:51,350 --> 00:16:52,480
其中一个更为重要
450
00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:54,080
谁在我的鲸鱼里
451
00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:54,700
投资者汽车
452
00:16:54,700 --> 00:16:56,179
也在uip中
453
00:16:56,179 --> 00:16:58,360
这就是终极投资者策略手册
454
00:16:58,360 --> 00:16:58,990
他说
455
00:16:58,990 --> 00:16:59,470
你知道的
456
00:16:59,470 --> 00:17:00,149
顺便提一下
457
00:17:00,149 --> 00:17:02,230
我在2022年参加了你的课程
458
00:17:02,230 --> 00:17:05,470
开设了新账户并遵循了大部分教学
459
00:17:05,470 --> 00:17:07,869
三年后这就是结果
460
00:17:07,869 --> 00:17:12,118
三年来的回报率上涨了106%
461
00:17:12,118 --> 00:17:14,179
并且上涨了两
462
00:17:14,179 --> 00:17:17,420
在过去一年上涨9%
463
00:17:17,859 --> 00:17:19,579
然后我们有像Cam这样的人
464
00:17:19,579 --> 00:17:23,700
自从我的投资组合成立以来三个月
465
00:17:23,700 --> 00:17:26,170
我上涨了307%
466
00:17:26,174 --> 00:17:30,059
尽管2026年初起步平平
467
00:17:30,420 --> 00:17:31,849
这真是棒的
468
00:17:31,849 --> 00:17:32,930
这真是太棒了
469
00:17:32,930 --> 00:17:34,690
是你美好社区的重要部分
470
00:17:34,690 --> 00:17:39,089
并持续成长学习,观看每月更新和深度分析
471
00:17:39,089 --> 00:17:41,329
衷心感谢自己
472
00:17:41,329 --> 00:17:45,420
以及整个鲨鱼利润团队的辛勤工作和长期坚持
473
00:17:45,420 --> 00:17:45,859
所以再次
474
00:17:45,859 --> 00:17:48,920
我每年公布结果的原因
475
00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:54,049
学生自愿展示成果并非为了让你惊叹
476
00:17:54,049 --> 00:17:55,470
也不是炫耀给你看
477
00:17:55,470 --> 00:17:57,430
而是为了激励你
478
00:17:57,430 --> 00:17:58,940
如果我们能做到
479
00:17:58,940 --> 00:18:00,220
你也能做到
480
00:18:00,220 --> 00:18:00,819
为什么不呢
481
00:18:00,819 --> 00:18:01,299
事实上
482
00:18:01,299 --> 00:18:02,220
许多我的学生
483
00:18:02,220 --> 00:18:03,900
刚加入我的项目时
484
00:18:03,900 --> 00:18:06,699
完全没有财务背景
485
00:18:06,699 --> 00:18:09,450
零投资经验
486
00:18:09,450 --> 00:18:11,190
但保持开放心态
487
00:18:11,190 --> 00:18:12,410
他们很自律
488
00:18:12,410 --> 00:18:13,450
严格遵循规则
489
00:18:13,450 --> 00:18:15,589
并持续跑赢市场
490
00:18:15,589 --> 00:18:16,769
不仅短期有效
491
00:18:16,769 --> 00:18:18,449
长期同样出色
492
00:18:18,449 --> 00:18:19,449
就像喜欢那样
493
00:18:19,449 --> 00:18:20,028
我保证
494
00:18:20,028 --> 00:18:21,568
接下来我要展示的
495
00:18:21,568 --> 00:18:24,828
是当前市场中被低估的股票
496
00:18:24,828 --> 00:18:26,089
所以再次
497
00:18:26,089 --> 00:18:28,318
我刚联系了理查德
498
00:18:28,318 --> 00:18:32,078
他是我的研究员之一,让我来做这件事
499
00:18:32,078 --> 00:18:33,888
嗯,最近更新了
500
00:18:33,888 --> 00:18:36,929
所以这是昨天刚更新的
501
00:18:36,929 --> 00:18:39,808
对,你可以看到在标普
502
00:18:39,808 --> 00:18:40,799
五百指数
503
00:18:40,799 --> 00:18:41,420
呃
504
00:18:41,420 --> 00:18:41,640
是的
505
00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:43,059
有很多股票价格过高
506
00:18:43,059 --> 00:18:44,859
事实上大约有两
507
00:18:44,859 --> 00:18:47,420
百分之四的股票严重高估
508
00:18:47,420 --> 00:18:52,720
这意味着它们以内在价值的三十个百分点溢价出售
509
00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:55,380
五百指数中有一百二十三只股票
510
00:18:55,380 --> 00:18:59,369
对,八十一只股票或十六%严重高估
511
00:18:59,369 --> 00:19:01,049
所以这些就是现在
512
00:19:01,049 --> 00:19:02,170
你知道我们不想买入的
513
00:19:02,170 --> 00:19:03,529
即使它们可能是优质公司
514
00:19:03,529 --> 00:19:05,869
等待它们从
515
00:19:05,869 --> 00:19:06,650
呃
516
00:19:06,650 --> 00:19:10,359
从严重高估或高估到合理估值
517
00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:11,720
处于买入区间内
518
00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:13,660
或者更好在折价时买入
519
00:19:13,660 --> 00:19:15,740
这能提供更大的安全边际
520
00:19:15,740 --> 00:19:17,430
所以在标普
521
00:19:17,430 --> 00:19:21,170
目前我们有111只股票定价合理
522
00:19:21,170 --> 00:19:22,679
这意味着它们正在
523
00:19:22,679 --> 00:19:23,378
嗯
524
00:19:23,378 --> 00:19:27,378
内在价值上下百分之十的范围内
525
00:19:27,378 --> 00:19:29,920
这就是我们可以捕捉机会的地方
526
00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:32,400
我们寻找自己能力圈内的投资标的
527
00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:34,950
我们有
528
00:19:34,950 --> 00:19:35,369
呃
529
00:19:35,369 --> 00:19:35,670
八十
530
00:19:35,670 --> 00:19:37,230
八只股票处于折价状态
531
00:19:37,230 --> 00:19:39,769
九十一只股票严重折价
532
00:19:39,769 --> 00:19:40,559
再次说明
533
00:19:40,559 --> 00:19:42,259
机会始终存在
534
00:19:42,259 --> 00:19:44,759
海洋里永远有鱼
535
00:19:44,759 --> 00:19:46,460
你只需知道如何寻找
536
00:19:46,460 --> 00:19:46,839
是的
537
00:19:46,839 --> 00:19:48,659
具体来说这里
538
00:19:48,659 --> 00:19:49,439
这没问题
539
00:19:49,439 --> 00:19:52,190
这些就是当前价格过高的股票
540
00:19:52,789 --> 00:19:53,369
顺便说一句
541
00:19:53,369 --> 00:19:55,910
TJX是我非常想持有的股票
542
00:19:55,910 --> 00:19:57,490
我观察它有一段时间了
543
00:19:57,490 --> 00:19:59,500
这是一个非常简单的商业模式
544
00:19:59,500 --> 00:20:00,940
这是零售业务
545
00:20:00,940 --> 00:20:01,960
但它非常优秀
546
00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:02,720
这是一个优质业务
547
00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:03,859
但目前价格过高
548
00:20:03,859 --> 00:20:05,210
所以我正在关注这只股票
549
00:20:05,210 --> 00:20:06,869
所以当它开始
550
00:20:06,869 --> 00:20:08,839
你知道合理定价或低估
551
00:20:08,839 --> 00:20:10,180
我打算开始买入
552
00:20:10,180 --> 00:20:11,299
什么时候会发生呢
553
00:20:11,299 --> 00:20:12,779
我不知道,我无法预测
554
00:20:12,779 --> 00:20:15,160
但有一天你会被低估
555
00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:17,430
你知道还有哪些被高估的
556
00:20:17,430 --> 00:20:17,910
我们有
557
00:20:18,910 --> 00:20:19,170
是的
558
00:20:19,170 --> 00:20:21,049
特斯拉仍然严重高估
559
00:20:21,049 --> 00:20:22,109
尽管它大幅下跌
560
00:20:22,109 --> 00:20:24,309
对我来说还是太贵
561
00:20:24,309 --> 00:20:25,170
嗯
562
00:20:25,170 --> 00:20:26,269
我们有Exon
563
00:20:26,269 --> 00:20:27,349
我也很喜欢
564
00:20:27,349 --> 00:20:30,349
但价格太高,还有几个
565
00:20:30,349 --> 00:20:33,519
你可以列个清单自行查看
566
00:20:33,799 --> 00:20:36,440
然后还有被高估的股票
567
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:38,420
比如苹果被高估
568
00:20:38,700 --> 00:20:40,019
我持有股票和苹果
569
00:20:40,019 --> 00:20:40,839
我想再买更多
570
00:20:40,839 --> 00:20:41,799
但我不能再买了
571
00:20:41,799 --> 00:20:42,799
因为它被高估
572
00:20:42,799 --> 00:20:44,630
尤其是财报后暴涨
573
00:20:44,630 --> 00:20:48,250
现在亚马逊略显高估
574
00:20:48,250 --> 00:20:49,609
这不是我的主要
575
00:20:49,609 --> 00:20:50,930
这是我第二大持仓
576
00:20:50,930 --> 00:20:51,289
事实上
577
00:20:51,289 --> 00:20:53,410
但当然我是在它被低估时买入亚马逊
578
00:20:53,410 --> 00:20:55,029
但现在不能再买了
579
00:20:55,029 --> 00:20:58,028
因为它现在被高估了
580
00:20:58,028 --> 00:20:59,949
还有定价合理的股票
581
00:20:59,949 --> 00:21:03,460
你可以在这里看到被低估的股票
582
00:21:03,460 --> 00:21:03,980
嗯
583
00:21:03,980 --> 00:21:08,059
在这里,还有极度低估的股票在这里
584
00:21:08,059 --> 00:21:10,150
正如我之前多次强调
585
00:21:10,150 --> 00:21:11,829
不要只因为便宜就买入股票
586
00:21:11,829 --> 00:21:13,049
因为廉价垃圾仍是垃圾
587
00:21:13,049 --> 00:21:16,469
好吧
588
00:21:16,469 --> 00:21:17,088
低价可能变得更便宜
589
00:21:17,088 --> 00:21:19,729
必须确保不仅被低估
590
00:21:19,729 --> 00:21:22,009
它必须是优质企业
591
00:21:22,009 --> 00:21:29,710
符合高ROE等投资标准
592
00:21:29,710 --> 00:21:32,630
高ROI,强劲商业模式
593
00:21:32,630 --> 00:21:34,250
收入利润持续增长
594
00:21:34,250 --> 00:21:35,549
等等等等
595
00:21:35,549 --> 00:21:35,950
你知道的
596
00:21:35,950 --> 00:21:38,920
这些都是我教学生的内容
597
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,759
在我们社区交流的时光里
598
00:21:41,759 --> 00:21:43,059
深度研究分析
599
00:21:43,059 --> 00:21:44,640
当然还有神谕
600
00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:47,940
你可以轻松检查一家企业的基本面
601
00:21:48,980 --> 00:21:50,059
如果你看一张图表
602
00:21:50,059 --> 00:21:50,579
例如
603
00:21:50,579 --> 00:21:54,190
另一只目前严重被低估的股票是ServiceNow
604
00:21:54,190 --> 00:21:55,990
为什么它被低估
605
00:21:55,990 --> 00:22:00,440
因为有人预测我会颠覆所有软件公司
606
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,359
但事实并不支持这一点
607
00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:06,839
事实显示公司正以显著速度复利增长
608
00:22:06,839 --> 00:22:08,299
如果你看ServiceNow
609
00:22:08,299 --> 00:22:08,819
例如
610
00:22:08,819 --> 00:22:11,019
让我们看看ServiceNow
611
00:22:13,799 --> 00:22:14,359
是的
612
00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:15,500
大幅回调
613
00:22:15,500 --> 00:22:17,519
但若看基本面
614
00:22:17,519 --> 00:22:18,319
呃
615
00:22:18,319 --> 00:22:18,839
立刻就能看到
616
00:22:18,839 --> 00:22:20,940
在可预测性方面
617
00:22:20,940 --> 00:22:23,000
高盈利性
618
00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:23,819
中等水平
619
00:22:23,819 --> 00:22:24,599
还算不错
620
00:22:24,599 --> 00:22:25,000
增长
621
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:25,990
高速增长
622
00:22:25,990 --> 00:22:26,730
经济
623
00:22:26,730 --> 00:22:27,650
更强劲
624
00:22:27,650 --> 00:22:29,410
更强的财务实力
625
00:22:29,410 --> 00:22:32,549
中等估值偏高
626
00:22:32,549 --> 00:22:34,230
这意味着严重被低估
627
00:22:34,230 --> 00:22:35,039
目前
628
00:22:35,039 --> 00:22:36,319
你会更具体说明
629
00:22:36,319 --> 00:22:37,319
你可以查看
630
00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:42,490
七七个百分点
631
00:22:42,490 --> 00:22:45,190
之后十九点
632
00:22:45,190 --> 00:22:45,990
四一个百分点
633
00:22:45,990 --> 00:22:52,289
这些预测已考虑基因AI可能带来的颠覆
634
00:22:52,289 --> 00:22:53,369
但截至目前
635
00:22:53,369 --> 00:22:54,609
没有实质性证据
636
00:22:54,609 --> 00:22:57,490
若看这里的财务数据
637
00:22:57,890 --> 00:22:58,809
再次可以看到
638
00:22:58,809 --> 00:23:00,269
他们刚公布亮眼财报
639
00:23:00,269 --> 00:23:01,240
丰厚利润
640
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:01,720
你知道的
641
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:03,579
收入持续稳定增长
642
00:23:03,579 --> 00:23:06,900
运营现金流持续稳定增长
643
00:23:06,900 --> 00:23:09,420
自由现金流持续稳定增长
644
00:23:09,420 --> 00:23:11,000
但股价却下跌
645
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:11,740
为什么呢
646
00:23:11,740 --> 00:23:13,779
因为市场情绪
647
00:23:13,779 --> 00:23:15,180
市场情绪
648
00:23:15,180 --> 00:23:18,559
如果你看一下这里的内在价值
649
00:23:19,499 --> 00:23:21,499
你可以看到使用你知道的
650
00:23:21,499 --> 00:23:21,818
折现
651
00:23:21,818 --> 00:23:23,099
自由现金流
652
00:23:23,099 --> 00:23:26,279
股票价值为234美元
653
00:23:26,279 --> 00:23:30,470
而目前它以91美元的价格在售
654
00:23:30,470 --> 00:23:33,950
你知道这比折现价低了近一半
655
00:23:33,950 --> 00:23:34,789
自由现金流
656
00:23:34,789 --> 00:23:40,710
即使当Oracle公司更加保守并调整部分数据时
657
00:23:40,710 --> 00:23:42,690
Oracle估值为205美元
658
00:23:42,690 --> 00:23:43,630
而这同样
659
00:23:43,630 --> 00:23:44,890
远低于这个价位
660
00:23:44,890 --> 00:23:46,789
所以再次有这些机会存在
661
00:23:46,789 --> 00:23:47,750
请仔细查看
662
00:23:47,750 --> 00:23:48,029
并且
663
00:23:48,029 --> 00:23:51,130
当然要记住仓位管理
664
00:23:51,130 --> 00:23:52,089
仓位规模同样重要
665
00:23:52,089 --> 00:23:53,529
确保正确调整仓位规模
666
00:23:53,529 --> 00:23:54,380
准确无误
667
00:23:54,380 --> 00:23:56,859
买入优质公司并让其复利增长
668
00:23:56,859 --> 00:23:57,759
感谢您的聆听
669
00:23:57,759 --> 00:23:59,960
一如既往,愿市场与您同在
670
00:23:59,960 --> 00:24:01,720
如果您想观看我的最新视频
671
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:03,160
请点击订阅按钮
672
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:05,049
现在点击铃铛图标
673
00:24:05,049 --> 00:24:06,490
以便即时接收通知
674
00:24:06,490 --> 00:24:08,789
当我上传最新视频时
675
00:24:08,789 --> 00:24:11,130
如果您想了解我的在线课程
676
00:24:11,130 --> 00:24:13,380
访问piranha profits.com
677
00:24:13,380 --> 00:24:16,660
我们将学习如何投资和应对金融市场
678
00:24:16,660 --> 00:24:19,589
并从全球各地创造收入
679
00:24:19,589 --> 00:24:23,009
如果您想加入我的实时财富学院项目
680
00:24:23,009 --> 00:24:25,349
前往wealth academy global.
681
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:32,019
我是Adam Cool,愿市场与您同在