【Patrick Boyle】股市看不见的危机——能源、通胀与全球供应链的断裂

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如果你看看今天的股市

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你可能会自然得出结论，全球能源危机已永久解决

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标普500指数最近再创历史新高

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突破了二月底冲突爆发前的水平

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股票交易员似乎认定中东战争

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已封锁世界最关键的能源咽喉要道

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不过是逢低吸纳的好机会

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但如果你采访实际运输原油的从业者

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气氛明显更加阴郁

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期货市场正定价快速外交解决

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而实物商品交易者面对完全不同现实

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乐观新闻流驱动股价与实物油价存在巨大鸿沟

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和西北欧货轮上搁置数周的原油实际成本

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我们目睹了一个奇特循环

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宣布停火或外交突破

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股市飙升原油价格暴跌10%

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几乎立即

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伊朗宣布未达成任何协议价格本周反转

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尽管以色列与黎巴嫩宣布延长三周停火

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伊朗部队登船扣押两艘MSC集装箱船

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特朗普总统下令美军

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S

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海军击毁任何被拦截船只

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在水域布设水雷

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这根本不是正常贸易路线应有的模样

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投资者似乎患上了严重肌肉记忆

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他们坐在纽约伦敦的舒适办公室

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假设政府最终会出现投资者所说的ACO时刻

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其中TACO代表

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特朗普总是临阵退缩

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他们预期总统会考虑中期选举

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汽油价格持续上涨

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并简单退出冲突

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就像去年撤回解放日关税那样

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这个假设的致命缺陷在于贸易战由行政手段

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周末在真相社交平台发帖就能取消关税

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霍尔木兹海峡的海战使用无人机

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海军封锁和反舰导弹

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无法单方面退出双方有各自议程的冲突

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伊朗政权已挺过首轮打击

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发现扣押全球经济是强大杠杆

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与核武器不同

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这是他们能实际使用的武器

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正如我之前所说需要双方共同TACO

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而此刻

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对方正在扣押集装箱船的商业船只

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目前被困在波斯湾

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局势已演变为高风险海上越狱

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船长关闭追踪设备深夜潜行

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只为安全撤离船员

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大约四

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五艘船只已进入或离开海峡

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自四月八日首次达成临时停火协议以来

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在超过两四小时的时间段内

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仅有五艘成功通过

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至少两艘

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另有两艘船只遭袭击，数艘被伊朗革命卫队扣押

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自冲突爆发以来

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当前局势被描述为双重封锁

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伊朗已限制敌对国家船只通行

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而美国

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专门针对往来伊朗港口的船只

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在霍尔木兹海峡航行的现实

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如今听起来更像是抢劫片而非全球物流

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就在过去周末

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载有三百万桶柴油成功在夜间突围

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它排在船队前端

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并在数小时前顺利撤离

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伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队随后派快艇重返航道

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在深入分析哪些船只能通过前

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让我介绍本周视频赞助商Incogni

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大多数人并未意识到自己的信息有多少在线可见

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直到亲眼看到

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如果你搜索自己的名字

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城市和州名

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常会发现数十个网站未经允许出售你的个人信息

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这些信息可被任何联网者购买

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Incogni致力于清除网络上的私人信息

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真正区别于竞争对手的是其定制清除功能

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这远超自动化工具

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如果你发现某个网站

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博客或论坛显示你的个人信息

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你无需自行应对

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只需发送链接至Incogni

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专属隐私专家将全程处理删除

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如同拥有网络保镖

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清除网页各角落的个人信息

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自动化工具常遗漏的部分

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前往Incogni官网恢复控制并保护隐私

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访问incogni.com

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通过描述中的链接

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使用代码boil获取六折年费

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提供全额退款保证

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若不满意

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正被重点 targeting 的船只

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如与MSC集团相关的船只

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正尝试通过GPS隐蔽通行

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应答器完全关闭

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有些藏在阿曼国旗后

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其他则在应对伊朗政权的过境安全要求

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以加密货币支付过路费

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这些主要贸易公司坚决否认支付

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因为这样会违反美国制裁

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由此产生的积压形成了什么

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一位高管形容为数百艘船组成的停车场，焦急等待出港

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被困的不只是油轮

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六艘游轮滞留在海湾

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但最终成功脱困

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二月底以空船和少量船员撤离

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其中一艘属于MSC集团

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与以色列有商业合作

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整个局势最引人注目的是这些商船被完全抛弃

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由西方政府

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拉里·约翰逊

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默克里亚货运全球负责人

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本周表达了不满

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称政客们只是掩耳盗铃

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国家

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国营船只可能获得海军护航或与伊朗政权的秘密沟通

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但纯粹的商船完全孤立无援

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美国

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海军封锁海岸线并调转数十艘船只

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伊朗对试图强行通过的船只开火

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没有协调一致的安全通行机制

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相反

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负责运输全球四分之一海上原油的机构

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被要求关掉车灯并听天由命

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投资者可能认为这封锁只是供应链的暂时故障

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现实是世界已耗尽安全缓冲

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冲突初期

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市场因海上原油接近创纪录库存而未受影响

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战争开始时

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但到四月二十日

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最后几艘穿越霍尔木兹海峡的油轮

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在战斗前终于抵达马来西亚和加州等地

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海上缓冲现已完全耗尽

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实物商品交易者警告长期损害已造成

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交通拥堵严重

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乌拉

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本周告诉《经济学人》

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累计损失15亿桶海湾原油

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约占全球年产量5%

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几乎不可避免

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此时

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即使停火今日生效

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市场可能要到2030年才能恢复平衡

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由于这种永久性供应损失

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通常情况下

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美国总统可能会期望国内石油行业简单地钻探全国

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在这样的能源冲击之后

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毕竟美国

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S

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现已能源自给自足

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政府强烈敦促石油高管增加产量以降低汽油价格

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但美国

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S

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页岩巨头正积极抵制这些呼吁

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根据达拉斯联储最近的调查

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能源高管拒绝大幅增加产量

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指出当前市场的绝对混乱

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尽管这可能让总统不悦

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这是完全理性的资本分配决策

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由曾因过度钻探受挫的高管做出

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实物价格与期货价格间的极端波动向操作者传递矛盾信号

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他们无法负责任地规划长期资本预算或钻井部署

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当产品价格剧烈波动时

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基于总统推文

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大多数公司对其2026年预算采取不作为策略

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他们清楚若现在投入数十亿过度生产

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而特朗普明日突然达成和平协议

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他们将被迫在崩溃的市场中接盘

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若要理解地缘

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需超越原油 headline 价格

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分析维持世界运转的具体精炼产品

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以航空燃油为例

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欧洲无法自产足够满足需求的航空燃油

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据政治新闻网报道

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其炼油能力最多仅能满足航空公司70%需求

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任何对海峡航运的持续干扰

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将迫使承运商紧急寻找供应

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欧洲目前持有约50天航空燃油储备

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这为其常规操作水平

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但数据公司开普勒的建模显示

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与《经济学人》合作

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这些库存将急剧下降

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它通过霍尔木兹海峡运输

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6月前不会恢复正常

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美国理论上可通过出口精炼产品提供帮助

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但若政府决定优先国内价格并禁止精炼燃料出口

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欧洲航空业将面临无解困境

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还有大多数人忽视的特殊商品

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直到用尽为止

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卡塔尔不仅是液化天然气主导者

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也是全球最大氦气生产国之一

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约占全球供应量三分之一

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氦是天然气开采的副产品

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不能安全地用飞机运输

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必须通过海运

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当霍尔木兹海峡被炮艇封锁

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全球氦气供应几乎被切断

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这不仅仅是派对气球的问题

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氦拥有所有元素中最低的沸点

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同时具有极高的热传导性

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使其不可替代

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作为敏感设备的冷却剂

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用于MRI机器的超导磁体冷却

208
00:12:14,259 --> 00:12:20,950
在化学气相沉积过程中作为载气用于制造半导体芯片

209
00:12:20,950 --> 00:12:24,090
并在洁净室作为吹扫气体

210
00:12:24,090 --> 00:12:27,870
氦没有合成替代品

211
00:12:27,870 --> 00:12:32,690
如果你经营芯片工厂或医院放射科

212
00:12:32,690 --> 00:12:35,929
无法用其他物质替代

213
00:12:35,929 --> 00:12:41,399
这个封锁的连锁反应不限于中东地区

214
00:12:41,399 --> 00:12:41,980
要么

215
00:12:41,980 --> 00:12:45,950
全球航运业形成封闭循环

216
00:12:45,950 --> 00:12:49,470
由于船只无法安全通过该区域

217
00:12:49,470 --> 00:12:53,950
被迫绕行好望角

218
00:12:53,950 --> 00:12:57,089
显著延长航行时间

219
00:12:57,089 --> 00:13:02,659
实际上从全球市场移除了大量运力

220
00:13:02,659 --> 00:13:06,649
巴拿马运河拥堵也加剧了

221
00:13:06,649 --> 00:13:09,889
亚洲买家转向采购墨西哥湾原油

222
00:13:09,889 --> 00:13:14,299
以替代中东供应

223
00:13:14,299 --> 00:13:20,379
运河本就因历史干旱面临严重通行限制

224
00:13:20,379 --> 00:13:25,649
如今油轮竞逐稀缺的通行舱位

225
00:13:25,649 --> 00:13:31,429
连锁延误波及与能源无关的供应链

226
00:13:31,429 --> 00:13:33,179
据《金融时报》报道

227
00:13:33,179 --> 00:13:38,730
载运谷物等低价值货物的船只排在队尾

228
00:13:38,730 --> 00:13:43,399
油轮运营商支付数百万美元优先通行

229
00:13:43,399 --> 00:13:47,580
运河等待时间延长至约40天

230
00:13:47,580 --> 00:13:54,009
某些航线运费上涨50%至60%

231
00:13:54,009 --> 00:13:59,470
谷物运输速度变慢且成本大幅增加

232
00:13:59,470 --> 00:14:02,470
这让我们看到最令人担忧的连锁反应

233
00:14:02,470 --> 00:14:04,328
这场危机的次生影响

234
00:14:04,328 --> 00:14:06,808
对全球粮食安全的威胁

235
00:14:06,808 --> 00:14:12,230
人们往往认为能源市场和粮食市场是独立的

236
00:14:12,230 --> 00:14:12,710
但

237
00:14:12,710 --> 00:14:20,299
现代农业本质上是高效转化烃类为可食用热量的系统

238
00:14:20,299 --> 00:14:26,519
天然气是氮肥如氨的主要原料

239
00:14:26,519 --> 00:14:28,620
霍尔木兹海峡处理

240
00:14:28,620 --> 00:14:32,529
全球约三分之一的海上化肥贸易

241
00:14:32,529 --> 00:14:36,090
当海峡关闭且天然气价格飙升

242
00:14:36,090 --> 00:14:42,309
战前农业投入成本已急剧上涨

243
00:14:42,309 --> 00:14:44,509
无水氨价格为每吨

244
00:14:44,509 --> 00:14:44,730
美元

245
00:14:44,730 --> 00:14:48,049
如今美国农民每吨支付800美元

246
00:14:48,049 --> 00:14:51,389
目前价格达到每吨1050美元

247
00:14:51,389 --> 00:14:56,980
但化肥只是现代农场运营方程中的一个部分

248
00:14:56,980 --> 00:15:00,480
你需要大量柴油来驱动拖拉机

249
00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:04,399
还需要收割机和运输作物的卡车

250
00:15:04,399 --> 00:15:09,799
农业部门本就在极薄的利润边缘运营

251
00:15:09,799 --> 00:15:15,559
化肥和柴油成本的双重上涨代表着巨额

252
00:15:15,559 --> 00:15:17,509
未预算支出

253
00:15:17,509 --> 00:15:22,309
美国农场局联合会最近的调查显示

254
00:15:22,309 --> 00:15:26,230
约70%的农民表示无法负担

255
00:15:26,230 --> 00:15:29,789
本作物周期所需的全部化肥

256
00:15:29,789 --> 00:15:31,730
即使他们能负担得起

257
00:15:31,730 --> 00:15:34,568
供应链正在阻碍他们

258
00:15:34,568 --> 00:15:40,460
路易斯·德雷福斯首席风险官本周指出存在日益激烈的竞争

259
00:15:40,460 --> 00:15:44,279
争夺其他关键农业投入品如硫磺

260
00:15:44,279 --> 00:15:47,240
继氮之后的第四大必需营养元素

261
00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:48,909
磷和钾之后

262
00:15:48,909 --> 00:15:50,470
由于危机

263
00:15:50,470 --> 00:15:56,029
硫磺正被转用于高价值工业用途如铜冶炼

264
00:15:56,029 --> 00:16:00,059
使化肥生产商排在供应链末端等待

265
00:16:00,059 --> 00:16:01,500
齐皮·杜瓦尔

266
00:16:04,799 --> 00:16:09,120
拥有我遇到过的最美国名的人

267
00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:13,220
告诉《金融时报》当前农业前景黯淡

268
00:16:13,220 --> 00:16:16,409
农场地区亟需帮助看

269
00:16:16,409 --> 00:16:18,750
这句并不算最佳引语

270
00:16:18,750 --> 00:16:21,330
但我还是想说

271
00:16:21,330 --> 00:16:22,929
齐皮·杜瓦尔

272
00:16:22,929 --> 00:16:23,769
巴勃罗

273
00:16:23,769 --> 00:16:24,730
埃斯科巴

274
00:16:24,730 --> 00:16:25,370
是的

275
00:16:25,370 --> 00:16:26,970
这也是他的真名

276
00:16:26,970 --> 00:16:29,539
维塔尔公司lng负责人

277
00:16:29,539 --> 00:16:32,909
本周警告我们正在透支时间

278
00:16:32,909 --> 00:16:34,789
指出若持续下去

279
00:16:34,789 --> 00:16:39,399
能源危机将迅速演变为全球粮食危机

280
00:16:39,399 --> 00:16:45,549
当然'全球灾难'对不同人含义不同

281
00:16:45,549 --> 00:16:50,210
而农业交易者担忧作物减产和粮食安全

282
00:16:50,210 --> 00:16:51,710
伯纳德·阿尔诺

283
00:16:51,710 --> 00:16:54,139
LVMH集团亿万富翁董事长

284
00:16:54,139 --> 00:16:56,039
有自己的担忧

285
00:16:56,039 --> 00:17:02,159
本周警告股东战争可能引发全球灾难

286
00:17:02,159 --> 00:17:05,348
伴随极端负面经济影响

287
00:17:05,348 --> 00:17:07,700
若不迅速解决

288
00:17:07,700 --> 00:17:09,940
他的灾难定义

289
00:17:09,940 --> 00:17:10,500
然而

290
00:17:10,500 --> 00:17:13,019
似乎指路易威登和迪奥手袋

291
00:17:13,019 --> 00:17:15,200
在中东购物中心的销售

292
00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:20,888
自战争爆发以来暴跌70%

293
00:17:20,888 --> 00:17:23,509
一个行业在为饥荒做准备

294
00:17:23,509 --> 00:17:26,788
而另一个则哀叹高端酒类下滑

295
00:17:26,788 --> 00:17:29,359
服装与奢侈品皮具

296
00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:30,160
虽然u

297
00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:30,519
S

298
00:17:30,519 --> 00:17:34,140
处理昂贵的柴油和滞销的手袋

299
00:17:34,140 --> 00:17:37,839
欧洲正面临更深层次的结构性压力

300
00:17:37,839 --> 00:17:41,240
恰逢霍尔木兹危机达到顶点

301
00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:46,119
俄罗斯决定这是对德国施压的最佳时机

302
00:17:46,279 --> 00:17:46,920
莫斯科

303
00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:51,880
宣布将暂停通过苏联时期管道输送哈萨克石油

304
00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:54,319
该管道为PC供应

305
00:17:54,319 --> 00:17:55,599
K炼油厂

306
00:17:55,599 --> 00:17:59,380
该设施提供德国首都90%的汽油

307
00:17:59,380 --> 00:18:06,089
通过切断这一替代供应线，停止供应航空煤油和取暖燃料

308
00:18:06,089 --> 00:18:09,609
恰逢中东海上进口受阻

309
00:18:09,609 --> 00:18:15,650
俄罗斯正确保欧洲感受到这场冲突的最大痛苦

310
00:18:15,650 --> 00:18:19,079
每当中东发生能源危机

311
00:18:19,079 --> 00:18:24,180
金融评论员总会将其与1970年代作比较

312
00:18:24,180 --> 00:18:26,670
人们立即被轰炸

313
00:18:26,670 --> 00:18:30,599
充斥着加油站排队的黑白影像

314
00:18:30,599 --> 00:18:33,480
并发出滞胀回归的警告

315
00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:37,819
这定义了1973年阿拉伯石油禁运时代

316
00:18:43,130 --> 00:18:48,460
当前局势比1970年代更严重

317
00:18:48,460 --> 00:18:50,759
正如丹尼尔·耶金最近指出

318
00:18:50,759 --> 00:18:52,589
在《零散交易》播客中

319
00:18:52,589 --> 00:18:58,319
我们看到的供应中断规模是历史之最

320
00:18:58,319 --> 00:19:04,500
全球石油生产和消费是五十年前的两倍

321
00:19:04,500 --> 00:19:05,400
然而

322
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:12,119
主要经济体如今对石油冲击的抵御力远强于过去

323
00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:19,230
经济学家用来衡量这一指标的是GDP石油强度

324
00:19:19,230 --> 00:19:22,750
衡量生产

325
00:19:22,750 --> 00:19:27,049
每美元经济产出所需的石油量

326
00:19:27,049 --> 00:19:28,910
自1970年代以来

327
00:19:28,910 --> 00:19:34,500
全球经济的石油强度已下降逾70%

328
00:19:34,500 --> 00:19:36,779
我们的工厂更高效

329
00:19:36,779 --> 00:19:38,799
汽车油耗更优

330
00:19:38,799 --> 00:19:41,539
电力系统更依赖

331
00:19:41,539 --> 00:19:45,240
其他能源而非石油

332
00:19:48,740 --> 00:19:53,130
而金融体系却根基不稳

333
00:19:53,130 --> 00:19:56,990
保罗·克鲁格曼近日指出1978年

334
00:19:56,990 --> 00:20:03,029
标普500的市盈率处于历史低位

335
00:20:03,029 --> 00:20:06,759
股票估值接近历史新高

336
00:20:06,759 --> 00:20:09,400
得益于高度复杂

337
00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:14,559
相互关联的私人信贷市场

338
00:20:14,559 --> 00:20:17,559
我们经济对石油需求更低

339
00:20:17,559 --> 00:20:23,930
但金融系统对长期通胀冲击的安全边际更低

340
00:20:23,930 --> 00:20:32,759
这场危机正重塑政府对能源基建的二十年认知

341
00:20:32,759 --> 00:20:34,420
风能

342
00:20:34,420 --> 00:20:39,759
太阳能和电动汽车的发展主要由气候政策驱动

343
00:20:39,759 --> 00:20:43,119
霍尔木兹海峡关闭重新定义了

344
00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:48,519
整个绿色能源转型已成为国家安全问题

345
00:20:48,519 --> 00:20:53,519
你无法修复全球20%的化石燃料供应骤降

346
00:20:53,519 --> 00:20:56,138
短期内依靠风力涡轮机

347
00:20:56,138 --> 00:21:01,358
但整个大陆被廉价伊朗无人机挟持的现实正在迅速改变

348
00:21:01,358 --> 00:21:04,230
伊朗无人机的威胁正在快速演变

349
00:21:04,230 --> 00:21:07,380
亚洲资本配置决策

350
00:21:07,380 --> 00:21:11,789
这些国家严重依赖进口海运石油

351
00:21:11,789 --> 00:21:14,130
转型正在加速

352
00:21:14,130 --> 00:21:19,400
电动汽车在中国新车销售中占比超50%

353
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:22,240
东南亚地区占比达40%

354
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:22,839
而美国

355
00:21:22,839 --> 00:21:23,160
则

356
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,660
试图通过钻探摆脱危机

357
00:21:25,660 --> 00:21:33,009
亚洲正将核能和电动汽车作为长期能源主权工具

358
00:21:33,009 --> 00:21:38,599
所有结构性转变需要时间在当下

359
00:21:38,599 --> 00:21:43,719
西方世界正面对通胀回归的严酷现实

360
00:21:43,719 --> 00:21:46,150
且将持续高位

361
00:21:46,150 --> 00:21:51,509
这场战争的经济影响已开始显现数据

362
00:21:51,509 --> 00:21:57,420
美国和英国通胀加速至三点

363
00:21:57,420 --> 00:22:00,099
英国3月通胀率达三点三%

364
00:22:04,740 --> 00:22:08,619
外部能源冲击推高生活成本

365
00:22:08,619 --> 00:22:12,809
同时扼杀美国经济增长

366
00:22:12,809 --> 00:22:13,190
美国

367
00:22:13,190 --> 00:22:16,200
政治恐慌日益明显

368
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:19,579
特朗普总统派遣顶级幕僚

369
00:22:19,579 --> 00:22:26,099
包括内政部长道格·伯古姆恳求石油高管增产

370
00:22:39,039 --> 00:22:41,420
当原油价格下跌时

371
00:22:41,420 --> 00:22:43,759
如果这番言论似曾相识

372
00:22:43,759 --> 00:22:44,779
应该如此

373
00:22:44,779 --> 00:22:47,819
几乎逐字复制了拜登

374
00:22:47,819 --> 00:22:51,920
政府对油价哄抬的抱怨

375
00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:54,509
去年夏天2022年

376
00:22:54,509 --> 00:22:57,369
拜登总统在加油站发推

377
00:22:57,369 --> 00:23:00,289
立即降低油价

378
00:23:00,289 --> 00:23:04,599
反映实际采购成本并立即执行

379
00:23:04,599 --> 00:23:10,259
发现对加油站老板喊话是跨党派传统

380
00:23:10,259 --> 00:23:12,720
无论谁在白宫

381
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:17,529
能源供应冲击的政治应对完全相同

382
00:23:17,529 --> 00:23:18,410
恐慌

383
00:23:18,410 --> 00:23:24,220
忽视市场基本面威胁本地加油站老板

384
00:23:24,220 --> 00:23:29,089
你无法在通胀消失前对其喊话

385
00:23:29,089 --> 00:23:32,069
国际货币基金组织本周警告

386
00:23:32,069 --> 00:23:37,579
美国短期通胀预期已上升

387
00:23:37,579 --> 00:23:42,900
这场冲突的经济影响不会一夜消散

388
00:23:42,900 --> 00:23:45,960
即使明天签署停火协议

389
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,680
化肥柴油和改道航运成本

390
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:53,579
已嵌入供应链

391
00:23:53,579 --> 00:23:59,259
这些成本最终必然转嫁给消费者在超市

392
00:23:59,259 --> 00:24:02,430
接下来几个月在五金店也会体现

393
00:24:02,430 --> 00:24:06,099
而政客们关注的是加油站油价

394
00:24:06,099 --> 00:24:11,819
宏观经济分析师正在分析这场危机如何从根本上重构

395
00:24:11,819 --> 00:24:13,789
全球资本流动

396
00:24:13,789 --> 00:24:16,069
当能源价格飙升时

397
00:24:16,069 --> 00:24:18,569
全球贸易格局发生转变

398
00:24:18,569 --> 00:24:22,529
布拉德是外交关系委员会的经济学家

399
00:24:22,529 --> 00:24:26,388
上周在fteconomics播客中指出

400
00:24:26,388 --> 00:24:30,568
你不能指望这次规模的能源冲击

401
00:24:30,568 --> 00:24:35,369
能消除亚洲国家持有的巨额贸易顺差

402
00:24:35,529 --> 00:24:41,019
中国制造业顺差结构如此庞大

403
00:24:41,019 --> 00:24:46,269
即使以创纪录价格进口海运原油也无济于事

404
00:24:46,269 --> 00:24:48,829
虽然这次能源冲击影响重大

405
00:24:48,829 --> 00:24:52,420
不会神奇地重塑全球经济

406
00:24:52,420 --> 00:24:57,519
只是将部分积累在北京的美元

407
00:24:57,519 --> 00:25:01,319
转向其他油气出口国

408
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:04,579
其中部分资金将流向沙特阿拉伯

409
00:25:04,579 --> 00:25:09,549
该国拥有东西向管道仍能出口石油

410
00:25:09,549 --> 00:25:13,130
但大部分资金将流向其他出口国

411
00:25:13,130 --> 00:25:14,210
哈萨克斯坦

412
00:25:14,210 --> 00:25:15,440
塔吉克斯坦

413
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:16,220
挪威

414
00:25:16,220 --> 00:25:19,159
俄罗斯和部分南美产油国

415
00:25:19,159 --> 00:25:19,679
美国

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00:25:19,679 --> 00:25:19,939
S

417
00:25:19,939 --> 00:25:25,089
和加拿大合计每天出口约500万桶原油

418
00:25:25,089 --> 00:25:29,609
布拉德预计看到的是大额

419
00:25:29,609 --> 00:25:31,650
亚洲和欧洲顺差的普遍缩减

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00:25:31,650 --> 00:25:35,809
资金转而流入特定产油经济体

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00:25:35,809 --> 00:25:42,138
是美元持有国的重新分配而非根本平衡

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00:25:42,138 --> 00:25:46,259
因为美国现为全球最大产油国

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00:25:46,259 --> 00:25:48,939
自2018年起保持这一地位

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00:25:48,939 --> 00:25:55,269
或许你会认为这次冲击最终对美国经济是净利好

425
00:25:55,269 --> 00:26:00,829
但油田收益未必能惠及家庭开支

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00:26:00,829 --> 00:26:05,289
美国油气出口商受益于价格上涨

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00:26:05,289 --> 00:26:09,949
但美国消费者在另一端承受痛苦

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00:26:09,949 --> 00:26:16,130
为农产品到运输支付地缘政治成本

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00:26:16,130 --> 00:26:20,339
导致他们可用于其他需求的开支减少

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00:26:20,339 --> 00:26:21,059
美国

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00:26:21,059 --> 00:26:21,359
S

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00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:23,599
贸易逆差未见缩小

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00:26:23,599 --> 00:26:26,779
生活成本只是越来越高

434
00:26:26,940 --> 00:26:30,319
这带来危机的最终启示

435
00:26:30,319 --> 00:26:34,299
正如我在欧洲金融核选项视频中提到

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00:26:34,299 --> 00:26:35,710
一月初

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00:26:35,710 --> 00:26:41,750
金融市场过去三十年基于一个重大幻觉

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00:26:41,750 --> 00:26:46,470
认为经济相互依存自然防止冲突

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00:26:46,470 --> 00:26:48,160
我们曾假设

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00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:53,880
因为霍尔木兹海峡开放对全球经济生存至关重要

441
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:57,730
没有任何理性行为者会试图关闭它

442
00:26:57,730 --> 00:27:04,388
本应作为安全网的相互依存关系却从两端被架空

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00:27:04,388 --> 00:27:05,949
在这一端

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00:27:05,949 --> 00:27:06,489
伊朗

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00:27:06,489 --> 00:27:09,969
发现用廉价无人机封锁全球经济

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00:27:09,969 --> 00:27:14,720
是一种极具成效的谈判策略

447
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:15,779
而在另一端

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00:27:15,779 --> 00:27:19,480
世界主要经济体在过去两年

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00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:23,539
通过关税主动减少相互依赖

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00:27:23,539 --> 00:27:26,220
出口管制和本土化生产

451
00:27:26,220 --> 00:27:31,259
正在瓦解本应防范危机的贸易网络

452
00:27:31,259 --> 00:27:33,009
就像这种非理性

453
00:27:33,009 --> 00:27:36,650
当你控制着关键地理咽喉要道

454
00:27:36,650 --> 00:27:42,259
无需万亿军费就能施加巨大地缘杠杆

455
00:27:42,259 --> 00:27:48,200
当对手已拆解本应遏制你的体系

456
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:52,000
更无理由不去尝试数十年

457
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:54,259
全球供应链一直依赖

458
00:27:54,259 --> 00:27:57,339
基于未言明的假设，即美国

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00:27:57,339 --> 00:28:01,299
海军将作为自由贸易的终极担保

460
00:28:01,299 --> 00:28:06,059
安全护送商船横跨全球

461
00:28:06,059 --> 00:28:08,799
这一假设已过时

462
00:28:08,799 --> 00:28:13,880
海军不再充当中立的海上通道守护者

463
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:17,888
而是主动作战执行封锁

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00:28:17,888 --> 00:28:20,628
商船队自担风险

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00:28:20,628 --> 00:28:26,740
我们已从全球合作时代进入高度交易化时代

466
00:28:26,740 --> 00:28:30,960
传统联盟已大幅失去效力

467
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:36,880
外交谈判缓和可能带来暂时缓解

468
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,460
但无法逆转现实认知

469
00:28:39,460 --> 00:28:45,380
全球经济命脉在新交易时代极度脆弱

470
00:28:45,380 --> 00:28:49,339
股市或许在买入和平交易

471
00:28:49,339 --> 00:28:55,199
假设周末强硬言论能修复供应链

472
00:28:55,199 --> 00:28:58,499
但物理世界自有其节奏

473
00:28:58,499 --> 00:28:59,838
由船舶

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00:28:59,838 --> 00:29:01,519
管道和涡轮机

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00:29:01,519 --> 00:29:03,779
而非市场情绪驱动

476
00:29:03,779 --> 00:29:05,940
如果你觉得这个视频有趣

477
00:29:05,940 --> 00:29:08,599
你应该观看我的预测市场视频

478
00:29:08,599 --> 00:29:10,529
接下来由于它已发布

479
00:29:10,529 --> 00:29:15,720
我们看到特战队员押注马杜罗下台

480
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:17,279
在行动报道前

481
00:29:17,279 --> 00:29:20,660
有人篡改天气数据赢赌局

482
00:29:20,660 --> 00:29:24,220
别忘了查看我们的赞助商Incognieither

483
00:29:24,220 --> 00:29:28,380
通过视频描述链接访问，下次视频见

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00:29:28,380 --> 00:29:29,079
再见

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