【Financial Education】AMD回调机会？我今天加仓两只超成长股！

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欢迎来到反应频道

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女士们先生们

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所以a和d

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但这应该是违法的

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AMD股价下跌

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好的

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我们将在视频开头讨论AMD

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这总是很有趣

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老牌AMD

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看来我得做一些日常点评了

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AMD所以我们将在视频开头讨论

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然后我们要深入这个

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今天我在这里买了两只高速成长股

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我将分享我在这些股票中的投入金额

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这些股票是什么

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为什么我要买这些特定股票

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是的

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它们是高速成长公司

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期待反应那个

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我想评论刚刚一小时前市场出现的这个

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我想听听这些先生们的意见

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也分享我的观点视角

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埃德·亚登尼刚刚在彭博社发表讲话

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并前所未有地上调了标普500目标预期

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预期

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期待反应这个丹·尼尔斯

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他略显看空

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所以丹·尼的市场泡沫还能膨胀更多才会结束

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这似乎是个反讽的恭维

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如果我真听过的话

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基本上是市场泡沫

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但接着说还能继续膨胀

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期待在视频中分享我的观点和视角

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欢迎来到新办公室反应频道

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我第一个视频是在主频道做的

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现在这是历史性首秀

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对于反应频道

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感谢大家来到新办公室

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感谢大家点赞

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图标

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谢谢你们

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很高兴你们喜欢这个频道

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期待为大家制作更多精彩视频

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这也是历史性一天

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你知道今天我应该收到反应频道的银色播放按钮

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这将成为第五个银色播放按钮

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自从十年前开始在YouTube以来

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感谢大家的到来

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感谢订阅频道和所有支持

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另外我要告诉大家

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我昨晚在主频道发布了视频

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这只股票将是下一个AMD或美光

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我在视频中详细讨论了众多股票

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所以如果你想要视频内容

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有时人们喜欢谈论这个话题

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聊聊那些事情

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我讨论了大量股票

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而那个视频简直疯狂

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好的

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你可能想看看那个视频

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如果你还没看过的话

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看起来大约一百四十

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已有千人观看过这个视频

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好的

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准备好了

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女士们先生们

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所以AMD听好了

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AMD最近表现非常强势

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好的

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过去五个交易日

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过去一个月上涨6%

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上涨了80%

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4%

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过去六个月上涨75%

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今年以来

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上涨101%

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过去一年上涨299%

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AMD走势强劲

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当然会有回撤

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这回撤有点弱

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老实说这是回撤

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比如4%

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如果有的话这显示

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AMD未来仍有很强劲走势

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这不算大幅回撤

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如果这只股票已经见顶开始下跌

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股价会跌8-10%

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甚至12%

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比如这次上涨后

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这回撤很弱

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回撤

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4%

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没什么大不了的

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如果继续上涨我一点也不意外

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接下来

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我们很快会看到

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我们将迎来五连涨

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让我们拭目以待

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目前我们处于观望阶段

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这是理解amd必须明白的重要一点

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我们现在处于无人之地

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我之前就跟你们说过

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你知道的

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amd最关键的是它突破了290价位

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没错因为这是当时的平均目标价

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就在几周前

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一旦突破就进入300区间

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我说过一旦突破380

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这是当时最高的分析师目标价

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我说那时我们将深入牛市

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而这就是我们看到的走势

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现在我们处于这个关键时刻

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许多分析师已调整目标价

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所以我觉得我们仍处于无人之地

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除非突破500价位

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然后进入500区间

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从250到550的范围

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因为这似乎

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大多数看多分析师都在这里

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如果突破我们将进入600区间

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所以你知道的

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amd现在就像一场精彩旅程

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你知道它毫无阻碍

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现在cpu需求极其旺盛

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amd的毛利率和净利率

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即将飙升到极致

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我们显然会在今年夏季推出gpu

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尤其是秋季和冬季

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这简直难以想象

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所以cpu和gpu两端

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即将在营收上爆发式增长

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收入和利润率将飙升

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这意味着盈利能力也将大幅提升

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没错amd现在毫无阻碍

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如果中国市场在未来3-6个月开放

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将带来新的 hype 和兴奋

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因为

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如果中国市场大幅开放给amd和英伟达

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顺便说一句

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巨大的新机遇

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就比如

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他们在华业务目前毫无进展

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没错如果中国市场大幅开放

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尤其是在gpu领域

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这将是全新的巨大机会

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所以amd现在毫无阻碍

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毫无阻碍你知道的

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将会有更多合作

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更多重大宣布

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对

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我们知道大公司正在不惜重金投入资本支出

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短期内不会退缩

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两年后将会有争论

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三年后而非四年

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如果他们会撤回

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这不是短期问题

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不会在接下来的一两年内

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所以我们知道市场炒作将极其疯狂

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现在没有任何阻力

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市场周围弥漫着大量负面情绪

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消费者股领域负面情绪严重

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如果这些负面因素能得到缓解

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这次讨论将带来新的兴奋点

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所以amd就是关键

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简直毫无阻碍

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分析师仍需不断上调价格目标

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没错

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这将助力算法推动股价进一步上涨

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期权交易活跃，根据我观察的期权市场

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在定价方面

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这些看涨期权需要支付高额费用

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这些股票如amd和micron仍有上涨空间

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你知道的

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关于这次行情

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从基本面来看

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没有任何阻碍

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未来相当长时间都将充满利好

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估值

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现在无法从估值角度分析

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因为人们常说

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哦amd

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预计十二个月营收达万亿

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等等

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没错

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无关紧要

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amd业务模式正在经历两项根本性变革

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过去一年的表现完全无关紧要

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当业务模式发生根本变化时

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即使业务模式恶化也是如此

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存在根本性变化

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去年的收益无关紧要

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若业务模式面临两项根本性恶化

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完全无关

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过去的收益

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因为盈利前景将大幅缩水

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同样的逻辑适用于另一面

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短期内无法准确估值

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因为不清楚利润率将如何变化

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利润率将远高于去年水平

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这根本差得远了

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未来一年营收将大幅增长

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相比过去一年增长显著

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根本不在一个量级

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每股收益简直是天壤之别

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所以试图说

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哦

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你知道的

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尝试托马斯T

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或者用现金流折现

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现在不能这么做

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AMD商业模式出现多项根本性变化

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正在发生的变化

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你根本

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不要试图围绕

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你知道的

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当前估值

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因为你根本做不到

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你根本做不到

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嗯

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这是一个非常激动人心的时刻

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AMD迎来激动人心的时刻

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这就是股票可能持续上涨的原因

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这就是我为什么

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你知道的

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我有个想法从1100美元涨到2600美元

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看多方的乐观目标是2600美元

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但我的现实预期是1100美元

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但需要几年时间

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不过他们可能很快突破1000美元

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而不是更晚

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因为人们会提前定价这些因素

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对的，当你开始看到这些利润率

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利润率会如何变化

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营收和每股收益

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这种兴奋感将难以形容

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对的，所以需要理解

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你知道我们正处于

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我们正处于被称作泡沫的时刻

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这个泡沫这泡沫，我说兄弟

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你还没见过真正的

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你还没见过真正的

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天啊

243
00:07:44,980 --> 00:07:46,199
这将是有趣的时光

244
00:07:46,199 --> 00:07:46,639
好的

245
00:07:46,639 --> 00:07:47,399
在我的X页面

246
00:07:47,399 --> 00:07:51,678
我总在描述区域链接X页面

247
00:07:51,678 --> 00:07:54,259
好的，我在这里发布了这个

248
00:07:54,259 --> 00:07:55,279
戴夫使用X

249
00:07:55,279 --> 00:07:56,120
你可能想在那里关注我

250
00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:57,199
我说我马上要

251
00:07:57,199 --> 00:07:58,800
我马上要买入两只高增长股票

252
00:07:58,800 --> 00:07:59,629
猜猜是哪两只

253
00:07:59,629 --> 00:08:01,149
不知道大家有没有猜中

254
00:08:01,149 --> 00:08:02,670
但这两只都是高增长股票

255
00:08:02,670 --> 00:08:03,009
顺便说一句

256
00:08:03,009 --> 00:08:06,350
今天置顶评论区如果有想申请私密群的

257
00:08:06,350 --> 00:08:08,889
里面要求非常严格

258
00:08:08,889 --> 00:08:12,680
所以如果你今天申请

259
00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:15,939
可能无法立即判断是否适合加入

260
00:08:15,939 --> 00:08:16,920
可能要等到本周末

261
00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:17,860
或者下周

262
00:08:17,860 --> 00:08:19,730
这点需要注意

263
00:08:19,730 --> 00:08:20,730
关于私密群

264
00:08:20,730 --> 00:08:22,529
可访问所有课程大纲

265
00:08:22,529 --> 00:08:24,269
可进入私密Discord聊天

266
00:08:24,269 --> 00:08:25,870
每周查看我的操作动向

267
00:08:25,870 --> 00:08:27,550
还有千倍股票

268
00:08:27,550 --> 00:08:28,189
科技类

269
00:08:28,189 --> 00:08:29,029
所有优质资源

270
00:08:29,029 --> 00:08:29,389
好的

271
00:08:29,389 --> 00:08:34,450
我今天买入的两只高增长股票就是这两只

272
00:08:34,450 --> 00:08:35,789
这是个小规模建仓日

273
00:08:35,789 --> 00:08:39,990
所以我买入了约650股

274
00:08:39,990 --> 00:08:41,169
如果我以15美元

275
00:08:41,169 --> 00:08:45,090
买入了71股，接下来可能涨到16美元

276
00:08:45,090 --> 00:08:46,289
目前还不确定

277
00:08:46,289 --> 00:08:47,230
可能跌到14美元

278
00:08:47,230 --> 00:08:48,250
也可能涨到16美元

279
00:08:48,250 --> 00:08:48,889
还不确定

280
00:08:48,889 --> 00:08:50,039
我不在意

281
00:08:50,039 --> 00:08:53,940
我相信这能让我持有50到100美元的股票

282
00:08:53,940 --> 00:08:58,159
长期持有，如果股价在14到16美元之间

283
00:08:58,159 --> 00:09:01,379
我之前买入的SoFi股票是6美元

284
00:09:01,379 --> 00:09:03,679
现在已经大幅上涨

285
00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:04,360
从我开始买入以来

286
00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:05,860
但公司基本面非常出色

287
00:09:05,860 --> 00:09:07,539
我们稍后详细讨论

288
00:09:07,539 --> 00:09:09,139
Celsius Holdings是另一只

289
00:09:09,139 --> 00:09:12,279
CELH，我现在正在积极买入

290
00:09:12,279 --> 00:09:13,549
尤其是股价低于30美元时

291
00:09:13,549 --> 00:09:15,129
这里买入约500股

292
00:09:15,129 --> 00:09:17,870
每股29.70美元

293
00:09:17,870 --> 00:09:21,220
看看这些公司的财报

294
00:09:21,220 --> 00:09:22,440
查看利润表

295
00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:25,409
点击查看这两只股票

296
00:09:25,409 --> 00:09:26,870
我制作了很多利润表

297
00:09:26,870 --> 00:09:28,549
关于Celsius

298
00:09:28,549 --> 00:09:30,860
这是他们前几天的最新财报

299
00:09:30,860 --> 00:09:34,019
看这个收入增长了138%

300
00:09:34,019 --> 00:09:35,220
公司同比数据

301
00:09:35,220 --> 00:09:37,019
这简直超乎想象

302
00:09:37,019 --> 00:09:37,720
超高速增长

303
00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:39,129
对吧就像什么

304
00:09:39,129 --> 00:09:40,250
这是另一个增长层次

305
00:09:40,250 --> 00:09:41,370
甚至超过AMD

306
00:09:41,370 --> 00:09:41,970
不必多虑

307
00:09:41,970 --> 00:09:43,269
很多增长来自收购

308
00:09:43,269 --> 00:09:45,090
但这些数据依然相同

309
00:09:45,090 --> 00:09:48,000
营业利润增长167%

310
00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:50,990
净利润增长148%

311
00:09:50,990 --> 00:09:52,350
简直令人难以置信

312
00:09:52,350 --> 00:09:54,970
公司DPS增长120%

313
00:09:54,970 --> 00:09:57,649
各项指标均三位数增长

314
00:09:57,649 --> 00:09:59,159
这太疯狂了

315
00:09:59,159 --> 00:10:00,620
所以Celsius堪称猛兽

316
00:10:00,620 --> 00:10:03,539
而且稳定的商业模式

317
00:10:03,539 --> 00:10:05,250
就像能量饮料

318
00:10:05,250 --> 00:10:07,450
现在我们将关注

319
00:10:07,450 --> 00:10:10,370
所以i技术领域

320
00:10:10,370 --> 00:10:11,409
所以呢

321
00:10:11,409 --> 00:10:13,799
如果我回溯太远

322
00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:14,919
到目前为止

323
00:10:14,919 --> 00:10:16,179
他们何时发布财报

324
00:10:16,179 --> 00:10:18,940
有人记得上次财报时间吗

325
00:10:18,940 --> 00:10:21,679
我不确定是否是月底

326
00:10:23,580 --> 00:10:25,000
这要追溯到二月

327
00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:26,259
为何回到二月

328
00:10:26,259 --> 00:10:28,440
你在discord三月干嘛

329
00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:28,820
嗯

330
00:10:28,820 --> 00:10:29,460
现在是五月

331
00:10:29,460 --> 00:10:30,059
天啊

332
00:10:30,059 --> 00:10:31,039
我有点懵

333
00:10:31,039 --> 00:10:32,940
我有点懵

334
00:10:33,220 --> 00:10:34,279
我们现在在哪

335
00:10:34,279 --> 00:10:37,940
五月五月五月五月

336
00:10:37,940 --> 00:10:38,159
是的

337
00:10:38,159 --> 00:10:38,779
好吧

338
00:10:38,779 --> 00:10:39,879
我直接搜索吧

339
00:10:39,879 --> 00:10:40,480
难道不能

340
00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:40,940
为什么不

341
00:10:40,940 --> 00:10:41,799
我直接搜索

342
00:10:41,799 --> 00:10:44,190
这可能是更聪明的做法

343
00:10:44,190 --> 00:10:44,629
嗯

344
00:10:44,629 --> 00:10:47,269
我搜索so

345
00:10:47,269 --> 00:10:49,190
我嗯

346
00:10:50,509 --> 00:10:51,370
没找到

347
00:10:51,370 --> 00:10:51,590
没有

348
00:10:51,590 --> 00:10:53,750
我需要查看Sophia

349
00:10:54,750 --> 00:10:57,509
损益表简直疯狂

350
00:10:57,909 --> 00:10:59,110
你得找到这个宝贝

351
00:10:59,110 --> 00:10:59,990
我得给你们看看

352
00:10:59,990 --> 00:11:00,509
这个

353
00:11:00,509 --> 00:11:01,470
在哪儿呢

354
00:11:01,470 --> 00:11:02,309
看这个

355
00:11:02,309 --> 00:11:03,009
所以啊

356
00:11:03,009 --> 00:11:04,049
这就是我们所说的

357
00:11:04,049 --> 00:11:05,019
A+评级

358
00:11:05,019 --> 00:11:08,419
总利息收入增长了31%

359
00:11:08,700 --> 00:11:11,220
如果我们看看净利息收入

360
00:11:11,220 --> 00:11:15,019
而我，对于银行类公司最重要的指标之一

361
00:11:15,019 --> 00:11:15,460
没错

362
00:11:15,460 --> 00:11:16,799
39%

363
00:11:16,799 --> 00:11:17,659
天啊

364
00:11:17,659 --> 00:11:18,600
我现在放大了

365
00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:19,980
我们在这里做什么

366
00:11:19,980 --> 00:11:22,139
39%的增长

367
00:11:22,139 --> 00:11:24,639
总净收入增长43%

368
00:11:24,639 --> 00:11:26,830
UTED DPS增长100%

369
00:11:26,830 --> 00:11:28,809
净利润增长135%

370
00:11:28,809 --> 00:11:29,889
作为A+评级者

371
00:11:29,889 --> 00:11:33,029
目前为止绝对棒极了

372
00:11:33,029 --> 00:11:35,308
所以这两家公司

373
00:11:35,308 --> 00:11:36,889
我说啊

374
00:11:37,708 --> 00:11:38,589
这里有个交易

375
00:11:38,589 --> 00:11:38,948
好的

376
00:11:38,948 --> 00:11:39,969
你想听实话吗

377
00:11:39,969 --> 00:11:41,109
所以我与Celsius

378
00:11:42,349 --> 00:11:44,048
当市场人心惶惶时

379
00:11:44,048 --> 00:11:45,860
他们不愿持有这些股票

380
00:11:45,860 --> 00:11:46,779
事实是

381
00:11:46,779 --> 00:11:47,960
人们担心这个市场

382
00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:48,539
但你说

383
00:11:48,539 --> 00:11:49,659
但已创历史新高

384
00:11:49,659 --> 00:11:51,078
你听过评论吗

385
00:11:51,078 --> 00:11:52,278
大家都在说泡沫

386
00:11:52,278 --> 00:11:54,239
这个泡沫因为像AMD这样的股票飙升

387
00:11:54,239 --> 00:11:54,639
太重了

388
00:11:54,639 --> 00:11:55,458
像Micron这样的股票

389
00:11:55,458 --> 00:11:57,470
半导体股票涨势凶猛

390
00:11:57,470 --> 00:11:59,070
我昨晚刚分析过

391
00:11:59,070 --> 00:11:59,730
在主频道

392
00:11:59,730 --> 00:12:01,799
我带你分析的那些

393
00:12:01,799 --> 00:12:03,240
我们实际上处于股市崩盘

394
00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:03,840
现在

395
00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:07,220
下跌30-40-50%

396
00:12:07,220 --> 00:12:07,620
60%

397
00:12:07,620 --> 00:12:09,899
70%跌幅令人震惊

398
00:12:09,899 --> 00:12:10,919
仅仅因为

399
00:12:10,919 --> 00:12:11,259
你知道的

400
00:12:11,259 --> 00:12:14,220
即使是像我之前看过的麦当劳这样的股票也

401
00:12:14,220 --> 00:12:14,500
你知道的

402
00:12:14,500 --> 00:12:16,990
麦当劳股价处于五周低位

403
00:12:16,990 --> 00:12:17,669
你知道吗

404
00:12:17,669 --> 00:12:19,009
家得宝五周低位

405
00:12:19,009 --> 00:12:20,389
五周低位

406
00:12:20,389 --> 00:12:23,190
像这些备受尊敬的公司

407
00:12:23,190 --> 00:12:24,690
像这些处于五周低位的股票

408
00:12:24,690 --> 00:12:26,610
许多公司股价触及多年新低

409
00:12:26,610 --> 00:12:27,690
市场环境相当艰难

410
00:12:27,690 --> 00:12:30,980
但如果你是半导体板块或涉及

411
00:12:30,980 --> 00:12:32,539
人工智能相关设备的公司

412
00:12:32,539 --> 00:12:33,600
如果你是卡特彼勒

413
00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:35,799
对你来说情况可能是最好的

414
00:12:35,799 --> 00:12:36,320
好的

415
00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:39,120
让我们看看华尔街人士的反应并分享我的观点

416
00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:39,720
想想这个

417
00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:42,100
这似乎部分原因是通胀超出预期

418
00:12:42,100 --> 00:12:43,679
CPI核心数据达到3.8%

419
00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:44,379
同比上涨8%

420
00:12:44,379 --> 00:12:45,089
同比来看

421
00:12:45,089 --> 00:12:48,048
我发现市场会按自己的节奏运行

422
00:12:48,048 --> 00:12:50,168
然后我们回过头去分析

423
00:12:50,168 --> 00:12:51,230
原因是什么

424
00:12:51,230 --> 00:12:52,830
我们都能找出一个理由

425
00:12:52,830 --> 00:12:54,070
如果我们想用CPI数据

426
00:12:54,070 --> 00:12:55,070
那就用CPI数据吧

427
00:12:55,070 --> 00:12:57,669
但事实上我们存在大量拥挤交易

428
00:12:57,669 --> 00:13:02,110
目前主要损失似乎集中在

429
00:13:02,110 --> 00:13:05,590
最严重的损失似乎集中在MH类股票

430
00:13:05,590 --> 00:13:08,480
这些股票跌幅超过200%

431
00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:12,110
对于持有美光科技从高点下跌7%的投资者

432
00:13:12,110 --> 00:13:12,909
嗯

433
00:13:12,909 --> 00:13:14,789
当然在理想情况下

434
00:13:14,789 --> 00:13:15,870
所有人都会在顶部卖出

435
00:13:15,870 --> 00:13:19,110
美光科技从高点下跌7%

436
00:13:19,110 --> 00:13:23,370
该股过去一年涨幅达770%甚至更高

437
00:13:23,370 --> 00:13:24,610
简直荒谬

438
00:13:24,610 --> 00:13:24,950
没错

439
00:13:24,950 --> 00:13:26,419
其实没什么

440
00:13:26,419 --> 00:13:28,539
现实是枪打出头鸟

441
00:13:28,539 --> 00:13:29,340
枪打出头鸟

442
00:13:29,340 --> 00:13:32,240
如果你重仓这些股票

443
00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:34,100
你已经赚得惊人

444
00:13:34,100 --> 00:13:35,480
现在只是回吐收益

445
00:13:35,480 --> 00:13:36,980
人们可能会说

446
00:13:36,980 --> 00:13:37,259
哦

447
00:13:37,259 --> 00:13:38,139
这只是CPI影响

448
00:13:38,139 --> 00:13:38,820
你可以这么说

449
00:13:38,820 --> 00:13:41,899
我认为原因本身并不重要

450
00:13:41,899 --> 00:13:44,980
我认为当你在这些拥挤的交易中操作时

451
00:13:44,980 --> 00:13:48,409
最关键的是不要试图猜测何时结束

452
00:13:48,409 --> 00:13:50,610
因为显然没有人能准确做到这一点

453
00:13:50,610 --> 00:13:53,269
嗯，仓位管理，比如投入多少

454
00:13:53,269 --> 00:13:53,549
是的

455
00:13:53,549 --> 00:13:55,750
仓位管理，还有你知道还有什么是重要的

456
00:13:55,750 --> 00:13:58,950
在这些公司大幅上涨前进行投资

457
00:13:58,950 --> 00:14:00,870
这些试图追涨的人

458
00:14:00,870 --> 00:14:01,629
现在他们开始买入了

459
00:14:01,629 --> 00:14:03,490
他们昨天以八百美元买入了迈克

460
00:14:03,490 --> 00:14:07,528
没错，可能还有更多上涨空间

461
00:14:07,528 --> 00:14:08,788
美光可能涨到一千

462
00:14:08,788 --> 00:14:10,048
可能涨到两千就像你

463
00:14:10,048 --> 00:14:10,528
你不知道

464
00:14:10,528 --> 00:14:11,688
但我要说的是现在

465
00:14:11,688 --> 00:14:14,090
就像大资金已经赚得差不多了

466
00:14:14,090 --> 00:14:15,889
现在你试图追赶这只股票

467
00:14:15,889 --> 00:14:18,850
同样适用于AMD，大概会在一千前见顶

468
00:14:18,850 --> 00:14:20,019
一切尽在不言中对吧

469
00:14:20,019 --> 00:14:21,480
可能还会更高过一千

470
00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:23,259
是否还能赚钱

471
00:14:23,259 --> 00:14:23,419
是的

472
00:14:23,419 --> 00:14:24,000
但兄弟

473
00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:25,320
买入的最佳时机

474
00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:27,620
AMD去年就是我们买入AMD的时候

475
00:14:27,620 --> 00:14:28,909
当时股价在一百美元左右

476
00:14:28,909 --> 00:14:31,909
去年解放日附近

477
00:14:31,909 --> 00:14:33,769
AMD跌到八十区间

478
00:14:33,769 --> 00:14:34,860
八十区间

479
00:14:34,860 --> 00:14:36,879
今年你仍有绝佳买入机会

480
00:14:36,879 --> 00:14:39,019
那时才是赚大钱的关键时机

481
00:14:39,019 --> 00:14:40,299
这些股票仍能赚钱

482
00:14:40,299 --> 00:14:42,679
但现在风险更大了

483
00:14:42,679 --> 00:14:45,120
因为这些股票涨幅巨大，你心里没底

484
00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:46,279
如果市场出现回调

485
00:14:46,279 --> 00:14:47,039
下一刻

486
00:14:47,039 --> 00:14:49,679
你可能在美光或AMD上亏了20%或30%

487
00:14:49,679 --> 00:14:52,889
没错，而你看别人时我们都在嘲笑

488
00:14:52,889 --> 00:14:54,309
举着香槟庆祝

489
00:14:54,309 --> 00:14:54,690
没错

490
00:14:54,690 --> 00:14:56,210
在顶级餐厅聚会

491
00:14:56,210 --> 00:14:58,529
因为我们股票赚了300%

492
00:14:58,529 --> 00:15:00,240
而有人随后投资了它

493
00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:01,279
却亏损了30%

494
00:15:01,279 --> 00:15:02,340
他们说这只股票差劲

495
00:15:02,340 --> 00:15:04,159
我们却说这是最佳股票

496
00:15:04,159 --> 00:15:04,940
你在说什么呢

497
00:15:04,940 --> 00:15:06,818
同样适用于股票公司Palantir

498
00:15:06,818 --> 00:15:07,899
我们重新买入Palantir

499
00:15:07,899 --> 00:15:08,778
当时我们买入Palantir

500
00:15:08,778 --> 00:15:10,499
每股七美元

501
00:15:10,499 --> 00:15:11,318
每股八美元

502
00:15:11,318 --> 00:15:14,460
2022年以这个价格买入股票赚了改变人生的钱

503
00:15:14,460 --> 00:15:16,759
其他人等着买码头

504
00:15:16,759 --> 00:15:18,049
所以是两百美元

505
00:15:18,049 --> 00:15:19,110
就像兄弟

506
00:15:19,110 --> 00:15:21,649
你可能在Palantir两百美元时还能赚钱

507
00:15:21,649 --> 00:15:23,610
可能会涨到四百甚至更高

508
00:15:23,610 --> 00:15:25,120
我就像你一样

509
00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:26,240
你错过了大钱

510
00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:27,860
机会就在那里

511
00:15:27,860 --> 00:15:30,000
这就是市场经常发生的事

512
00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:30,940
人们总是追涨

513
00:15:30,940 --> 00:15:32,250
即使晚点也能赚钱

514
00:15:32,250 --> 00:15:34,049
还能榨出更多收益

515
00:15:34,049 --> 00:15:34,909
这真是

516
00:15:34,909 --> 00:15:36,190
你错过了游戏

517
00:15:36,190 --> 00:15:36,950
赚取财富

518
00:15:36,950 --> 00:15:39,370
然后就是寻找下一个机会

519
00:15:39,370 --> 00:15:40,049
我还在做

520
00:15:40,049 --> 00:15:42,610
我还有更多

521
00:15:42,610 --> 00:15:43,049
呃

522
00:15:43,049 --> 00:15:45,100
现在西部数据的市值比三个月前高得多

523
00:15:45,100 --> 00:15:46,799
当我三个月前布局时

524
00:15:46,799 --> 00:15:47,929
当然如此

525
00:15:47,929 --> 00:15:49,470
因为它暴涨了

526
00:15:49,470 --> 00:15:50,309
所以你可以管理

527
00:15:50,309 --> 00:15:51,710
你可以持有这些仓位

528
00:15:51,710 --> 00:15:52,710
如果你想的话

529
00:15:52,710 --> 00:15:55,450
你可以继续配置AI资本支出主题

530
00:15:55,450 --> 00:15:58,779
但要认清这不是早期阶段

531
00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:01,179
更多人参与

532
00:16:01,179 --> 00:16:02,779
这些股票最可怕的是

533
00:16:02,779 --> 00:16:04,539
比如美光可能再跌78%

534
00:16:04,539 --> 00:16:05,659
你会被止损

535
00:16:05,659 --> 00:16:07,339
你设置了止损

536
00:16:07,339 --> 00:16:10,519
突然第二天

537
00:16:10,519 --> 00:16:12,239
美光涨了15%

538
00:16:12,239 --> 00:16:14,538
前一天被止损出局了

539
00:16:14,538 --> 00:16:15,769
你开玩笑吗

540
00:16:15,769 --> 00:16:18,789
别玩这种交易和追涨

541
00:16:18,789 --> 00:16:23,309
长期投资就行了，然后庆祝吧

542
00:16:23,309 --> 00:16:24,389
你知道我不在乎

543
00:16:24,389 --> 00:16:27,649
A&D跌到380或涨到480

544
00:16:27,649 --> 00:16:30,190
就像我的长期持仓

545
00:16:30,190 --> 00:16:32,409
我相信会涨到一千以上

546
00:16:32,409 --> 00:16:32,929
所以

547
00:16:32,929 --> 00:16:33,269
你知道的

548
00:16:33,269 --> 00:16:34,929
短期波动如何

549
00:16:34,929 --> 00:16:38,850
波动就是波动，现在该卖出

550
00:16:38,850 --> 00:16:41,980
然后然后你的半导体小子

551
00:16:41,980 --> 00:16:43,539
你得准备好应对波动性

552
00:16:43,539 --> 00:16:45,200
有些人会获得新买家

553
00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:47,279
如果你仓位配置得当

554
00:16:47,279 --> 00:16:48,720
你可以安然度过

555
00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:49,399
乔什

556
00:16:49,399 --> 00:16:50,740
指出一些mh概念股

557
00:16:50,740 --> 00:16:51,559
存在大量交叉持仓

558
00:16:51,559 --> 00:16:53,159
在动量股方面也是如此

559
00:16:53,159 --> 00:16:54,000
乔过来找你

560
00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:54,559
你是个大

561
00:16:54,559 --> 00:16:55,000
呃

562
00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:55,440
倡导者

563
00:16:55,440 --> 00:17:00,759
巴克莱今日将动量股从中性调升至正面，现在

564
00:17:03,639 --> 00:17:03,980
然而

565
00:17:03,980 --> 00:17:04,400
我是说

566
00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:04,880
我读一部分

567
00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:06,559
若我们从中性仓位转向存款

568
00:17:06,559 --> 00:17:09,380
在风险重燃的环境中， rally 仍显韧性

569
00:17:09,380 --> 00:17:11,469
围绕拥挤持仓的担忧

570
00:17:11,469 --> 00:17:14,108
正如乔什所言，基本面缓解了动量股压力

571
00:17:14,108 --> 00:17:16,048
交出最强财报表现

572
00:17:16,048 --> 00:17:20,049
但今日mt u m etf大幅回调

573
00:17:20,049 --> 00:17:21,230
下跌超2.5%

574
00:17:21,230 --> 00:17:22,329
大量交叉持仓

575
00:17:22,329 --> 00:17:22,589
不过乔

576
00:17:22,589 --> 00:17:23,549
那里有很多芯片股

577
00:17:23,549 --> 00:17:25,138
比如博通和英特尔

578
00:17:25,138 --> 00:17:26,298
其中的顶级持仓

579
00:17:26,298 --> 00:17:26,578
是的

580
00:17:26,578 --> 00:17:27,838
就像成为尼克斯球迷

581
00:17:27,838 --> 00:17:29,338
当他们以30分优势对阵费城

582
00:17:29,338 --> 00:17:30,778
进入第四节

583
00:17:30,778 --> 00:17:31,979
看动量

584
00:17:31,979 --> 00:17:37,549
二季度强劲 rally 上涨近30%

585
00:17:37,549 --> 00:17:38,390
我认为

586
00:17:38,390 --> 00:17:43,210
二季度复苏的核心驱动力

587
00:17:43,210 --> 00:17:46,029
正是动量因素

588
00:17:46,029 --> 00:17:46,210
现在

589
00:17:46,210 --> 00:17:47,769
相关几点因素

590
00:17:47,769 --> 00:17:49,349
乔什提到的持仓布局

591
00:17:49,349 --> 00:17:52,650
我一直在观察持仓，高盛上周报告

592
00:17:52,650 --> 00:17:57,900
过去五年相对来看

593
00:17:57,900 --> 00:18:03,069
动量因子持仓占比达第100百分位

594
00:18:03,069 --> 00:18:04,250
所以

595
00:18:04,250 --> 00:18:09,609
持仓已充分配置动量因子

596
00:18:09,609 --> 00:18:11,529
现在已过财报季

597
00:18:11,529 --> 00:18:17,430
还有什么能推动动量因子除了价格本身

598
00:18:17,430 --> 00:18:25,190
而动量因子的持续动力往往来自利率环境

599
00:18:25,190 --> 00:18:29,690
回想动量因子显著跑赢始于何时

600
00:18:29,690 --> 00:18:32,579
那是2024年秋季

601
00:18:32,579 --> 00:18:38,539
并与货币政策变化及利率开始下调相吻合

602
00:18:38,539 --> 00:18:41,299
动量因子偏好低利率环境

603
00:18:44,380 --> 00:18:45,199
我一点也不意外

604
00:18:45,199 --> 00:18:45,979
我过去几天一直在讨论这种情况可能发生

605
00:18:45,979 --> 00:18:50,529
并且结果非常明确地显现出来

606
00:18:50,529 --> 00:18:51,910
问题是

607
00:18:51,910 --> 00:18:53,970
这是否会延续到接下来几天

608
00:18:53,970 --> 00:18:55,490
我预计可能会继续

609
00:18:55,490 --> 00:18:55,950
所以

610
00:18:55,950 --> 00:18:56,910
标普指数

611
00:18:56,910 --> 00:19:00,869
目前位于50日均线上方约7%

612
00:19:00,869 --> 00:19:02,769
你应该明白

613
00:19:02,769 --> 00:19:04,150
这就是当前环境

614
00:19:04,150 --> 00:19:09,009
这是本季度获胜策略

615
00:19:09,009 --> 00:19:13,529
现在正在回吐部分超额收益

616
00:19:13,529 --> 00:19:16,789
未来几天可能继续调整

617
00:19:16,789 --> 00:19:18,869
我不认为应该立刻反应

618
00:19:18,869 --> 00:19:19,170
好的

619
00:19:19,170 --> 00:19:20,589
我要加仓布局

620
00:19:20,589 --> 00:19:22,630
因为动量因子在回落

621
00:19:22,630 --> 00:19:23,410
2.8个百分点

622
00:19:23,410 --> 00:19:25,730
我认为需要保持一定耐心

623
00:19:25,730 --> 00:19:25,990
好的

624
00:19:25,990 --> 00:19:28,069
你提到当前高利率环境

625
00:19:28,069 --> 00:19:29,730
部分源于CPI数据

626
00:19:29,730 --> 00:19:31,049
实际高于预期

627
00:19:31,049 --> 00:19:32,009
我想请教您

628
00:19:32,009 --> 00:19:32,890
Snipe嗯

629
00:19:32,890 --> 00:19:34,309
为什么CPI超出预期

630
00:19:34,309 --> 00:19:34,710
CPI

631
00:19:34,710 --> 00:19:35,990
今日有多份报告发布

632
00:19:35,990 --> 00:19:37,089
我引用Julia的观点

633
00:19:37,089 --> 00:19:38,190
纽约人寿的Herman

634
00:19:38,190 --> 00:19:39,930
她认为降息仍有可能

635
00:19:43,509 --> 00:19:44,888
正在加息的情况

636
00:19:44,888 --> 00:19:46,229
这有点出人意料

637
00:19:46,229 --> 00:19:47,689
Herman的观点

638
00:19:47,689 --> 00:19:50,148
您如何看待CPI对市场的冲击

639
00:19:50,148 --> 00:19:52,539
Josh说要回顾并寻找解释

640
00:19:52,539 --> 00:19:54,909
这是否是回调主因

641
00:19:54,909 --> 00:19:56,628
相对而言基本符合预期

642
00:19:56,628 --> 00:19:58,588
在总收入层面

643
00:19:58,588 --> 00:19:59,470
头部数据

644
00:19:59,470 --> 00:20:00,450
你知道的

645
00:20:00,450 --> 00:20:01,029
核心指标

646
00:20:01,029 --> 00:20:02,309
我应说CPI3.8%

647
00:20:02,309 --> 00:20:03,049
最高达3.8%

648
00:20:03,049 --> 00:20:04,910
已经过去了两年

649
00:20:05,049 --> 00:20:06,450
更关注核心问题

650
00:20:06,450 --> 00:20:07,170
当我翻阅资料时

651
00:20:07,170 --> 00:20:07,789
出现了渗透现象

652
00:20:07,789 --> 00:20:10,779
这显然比预期更热

653
00:20:10,779 --> 00:20:11,599
但回到乔的观点

654
00:20:11,599 --> 00:20:13,279
我意思是收益率曲线整体上升

655
00:20:13,279 --> 00:20:14,720
我认为这也是个故事

656
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:15,920
当你开始观察

657
00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:16,900
哪些在飙升

658
00:20:16,900 --> 00:20:18,380
显然那个呃

659
00:20:18,380 --> 00:20:21,720
你知道半导体现在占指数的15%

660
00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:23,509
你知道Cru上涨了4%

661
00:20:23,509 --> 00:20:27,019
你知道我们正在喘息调整

662
00:20:27,019 --> 00:20:28,398
你知道我们已经运行了很多

663
00:20:28,398 --> 00:20:31,558
MH在过去一个月上涨了2.5%

664
00:20:31,558 --> 00:20:34,089
你知道人们存在很大误解

665
00:20:34,089 --> 00:20:36,869
市场如何解读略高通胀

666
00:20:36,869 --> 00:20:38,269
这份通胀报告

667
00:20:38,269 --> 00:20:38,769
他们认为

668
00:20:38,769 --> 00:20:39,170
哦

669
00:20:39,170 --> 00:20:40,650
这是坏消息

670
00:20:41,569 --> 00:20:43,190
不不

671
00:20:43,190 --> 00:20:43,809
原因在于

672
00:20:45,009 --> 00:20:46,410
对于大企业而言

673
00:20:46,410 --> 00:20:46,769
没错

674
00:20:46,769 --> 00:20:50,599
这就是股市所代表的公司

675
00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:53,160
CPI为3%

676
00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:56,880
他们宁愿接受这个而非2%的CPI

677
00:20:56,880 --> 00:21:01,579
他们能提升收入并维持利润率

678
00:21:01,579 --> 00:21:03,819
大多数优质公司

679
00:21:03,819 --> 00:21:04,099
没错

680
00:21:04,099 --> 00:21:05,940
这些是最强的公司

681
00:21:05,940 --> 00:21:09,359
这意味着营收增长可能更强

682
00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:12,000
这至少能稳定利润率

683
00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,920
有时利润率还会提升

684
00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:19,240
我们看到很多案例，过去

685
00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:19,819
你知道

686
00:21:19,819 --> 00:21:20,160
三年

687
00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:20,859
四年

688
00:21:20,859 --> 00:21:24,740
过去几年通胀远高于前三年

689
00:21:24,740 --> 00:21:28,240
没错，尽管如此公司利润率

690
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:30,670
许多公司利润率确实在上升

691
00:21:30,670 --> 00:21:33,309
而营收增长更快

692
00:21:33,309 --> 00:21:37,089
对大企业最糟糕的是通缩

693
00:21:37,089 --> 00:21:38,170
通缩

694
00:21:38,170 --> 00:21:40,618
所有企业灾难

695
00:21:40,618 --> 00:21:45,259
这意味着营收可能下降

696
00:21:45,259 --> 00:21:47,740
利润率迅速下滑

697
00:21:47,740 --> 00:21:51,039
他们的运营杠杆完全丧失

698
00:21:51,039 --> 00:21:53,200
你可以看到一家公司，以及与之相关的内容

699
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:53,619
你知道的

700
00:21:53,619 --> 00:21:55,099
收入下降了6%

701
00:21:55,099 --> 00:21:59,680
但利润下降60%非常显著

702
00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:03,640
因此市场担忧通胀问题

703
00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:07,490
如果通胀过高迫使美联储加息

704
00:22:07,490 --> 00:22:09,130
这就是市场担忧的时刻

705
00:22:09,130 --> 00:22:10,869
我们甚至远未接近这种情况

706
00:22:10,869 --> 00:22:13,749
需要CPI达到5%才会触发

707
00:22:13,749 --> 00:22:13,989
好的

708
00:22:13,989 --> 00:22:15,388
我们必须再次加息

709
00:22:15,388 --> 00:22:18,459
你甚至远未接近这个范围

710
00:22:18,459 --> 00:22:20,878
显然，这一切主要与

711
00:22:20,878 --> 00:22:22,398
油价大幅上涨有关

712
00:22:22,398 --> 00:22:23,219
尤其是汽油价格

713
00:22:23,219 --> 00:22:25,239
这也是需要关注的另一点

714
00:22:25,239 --> 00:22:26,359
你知道的

715
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:26,839
是的

716
00:22:26,839 --> 00:22:27,859
汽油价格非常高

717
00:22:27,859 --> 00:22:28,980
油价非常高

718
00:22:28,980 --> 00:22:29,759
六个月后

719
00:22:29,759 --> 00:22:30,279
十二个月后

720
00:22:30,279 --> 00:22:31,339
可能会完全不同

721
00:22:31,339 --> 00:22:32,440
可能会更贵

722
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:33,420
也可能会更便宜

723
00:22:33,420 --> 00:22:33,660
比如

724
00:22:33,660 --> 00:22:35,140
你知道这会波动

725
00:22:35,140 --> 00:22:36,839
所以不必对此过度担忧

726
00:22:36,839 --> 00:22:37,429
它

727
00:22:37,429 --> 00:22:38,009
嗯

728
00:22:38,009 --> 00:22:39,108
所以对我来说

729
00:22:39,108 --> 00:22:43,420
我认为这些因素综合起来是好坏参半

730
00:22:43,420 --> 00:22:45,539
我也同意乔的观点

731
00:22:45,539 --> 00:22:46,019
我认为这

732
00:22:46,019 --> 00:22:47,319
值得谨慎对待

733
00:22:47,319 --> 00:22:49,660
未来需要耐心与谨慎

734
00:22:49,660 --> 00:22:51,299
这可能创造机会

735
00:22:51,299 --> 00:22:53,839
但让我们看看接下来的发展

736
00:22:53,839 --> 00:22:54,949
谈谈这个话题

737
00:22:54,949 --> 00:22:56,669
耐心与谨慎

738
00:22:56,669 --> 00:23:00,068
没错，这些人听起来像极度看涨

739
00:23:00,068 --> 00:23:01,949
他们认为市场即将飙升

740
00:23:01,949 --> 00:23:04,299
但这就是当前的市场状况

741
00:23:04,299 --> 00:23:05,859
充满谨慎

742
00:23:05,859 --> 00:23:07,430
充满谨慎

743
00:23:07,430 --> 00:23:08,450
我不介意

744
00:23:08,450 --> 00:23:09,750
我喜欢这种谨慎

745
00:23:09,750 --> 00:23:09,950
没错

746
00:23:09,950 --> 00:23:11,910
这让我感觉市场更健康

747
00:23:11,910 --> 00:23:12,609
我会感到担忧

748
00:23:12,609 --> 00:23:13,750
当所有华尔街的人都

749
00:23:13,750 --> 00:23:14,029
你知道的

750
00:23:14,029 --> 00:23:16,240
谈论着一切都要冲向月球

751
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:17,480
你知道必须今天就行动

752
00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:18,799
就像那时我开始担心

753
00:23:18,799 --> 00:23:19,339
所有这些

754
00:23:19,339 --> 00:23:22,628
你知道耐心和谨慎其实意味着

755
00:23:22,628 --> 00:23:23,769
我可不是那种

756
00:23:23,769 --> 00:23:26,709
你知道今天迫不及待要投入资金

757
00:23:26,709 --> 00:23:28,409
我喜欢这样的日子

758
00:23:28,409 --> 00:23:29,808
我想这就是我在关注的

759
00:23:29,808 --> 00:23:31,169
当我想到耐心和谨慎

760
00:23:31,169 --> 00:23:31,528
还有谁

761
00:23:31,528 --> 00:23:32,429
吉姆兄弟

762
00:23:32,429 --> 00:23:33,990
谢谢啊

763
00:23:33,990 --> 00:23:34,289
听着

764
00:23:34,289 --> 00:23:38,089
我有六分钟时间听大家说的那些精彩内容

765
00:23:38,089 --> 00:23:38,430
不

766
00:23:38,430 --> 00:23:38,910
太棒了

767
00:23:38,910 --> 00:23:39,750
太棒了

768
00:23:39,750 --> 00:23:40,480
嗯

769
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:42,559
乔什提到的后见之明分析

770
00:23:42,559 --> 00:23:43,200
你指的是

771
00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:43,640
我同意

772
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:45,180
这正是我们常做的事

773
00:23:45,180 --> 00:23:46,900
还有另一种现象

774
00:23:46,900 --> 00:23:50,400
不过在市场上涨时面对坏消息

775
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,759
我们往往忽视坏消息

776
00:23:52,759 --> 00:23:54,239
近期确实有很多坏消息

777
00:23:54,239 --> 00:23:56,019
主要来自波斯湾地区

778
00:23:56,019 --> 00:23:59,640
然而昨天我们刚创出标普历史新高

779
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:00,180
五百点

780
00:24:00,180 --> 00:24:01,119
我接下来要说的

781
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:03,680
这里有一些我认为令人担忧的事

782
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:07,400
这些可能很快就会显现

783
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:08,779
这是事前分析

784
00:24:08,779 --> 00:24:09,240
我说的是

785
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:09,680
我不是

786
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:09,880
你知道的

787
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:11,220
我不过度担忧

788
00:24:11,220 --> 00:24:11,680
但看吧

789
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:13,359
霍尔木兹海峡仍封锁

790
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:13,990
好的

791
00:24:13,990 --> 00:24:15,069
你知道的

792
00:24:15,069 --> 00:24:16,910
如果回溯一个月六周前

793
00:24:16,910 --> 00:24:17,390
我们会说

794
00:24:17,390 --> 00:24:17,549
哦

795
00:24:17,549 --> 00:24:18,950
到三月底就结束了

796
00:24:18,950 --> 00:24:20,880
到四月底就结束了

797
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:21,940
然而如今我们依然在此

798
00:24:21,940 --> 00:24:22,920
油价上涨困难

799
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:24,000
柴油价格很高

800
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,980
化肥和铝材供应问题难以解决

801
00:24:26,980 --> 00:24:31,380
我们今天看到的cpi价格波动很可能会持续

802
00:24:31,380 --> 00:24:32,779
所以我不打算

803
00:24:32,779 --> 00:24:33,220
你知道的

804
00:24:33,220 --> 00:24:34,900
在拥挤的剧院里喊火警

805
00:24:34,900 --> 00:24:36,299
但我要说的是

806
00:24:36,299 --> 00:24:39,059
年底前加息的可能性已悄然

807
00:24:39,059 --> 00:24:40,210
升至三分之一

808
00:24:40,210 --> 00:24:40,569
现在

809
00:24:40,569 --> 00:24:43,670
这非常非常不稳定的联邦基金

810
00:24:43,670 --> 00:24:45,670
期货市场可能随时变化

811
00:24:45,670 --> 00:24:46,470
我承认

812
00:24:46,470 --> 00:24:46,910
我只是说

813
00:24:46,910 --> 00:24:49,380
有些事情我们可能不该忽视

814
00:24:49,380 --> 00:24:49,839
嗯

815
00:24:49,839 --> 00:24:51,599
关于大家一直在说的

816
00:24:51,599 --> 00:24:51,819
尽管

817
00:24:51,819 --> 00:24:53,799
近期价格走势来看

818
00:24:53,799 --> 00:24:55,700
当某些事物出现暴涨

819
00:24:55,700 --> 00:24:57,599
半导体行业的情况

820
00:24:57,599 --> 00:24:59,880
尤其是像高通这样的公司

821
00:24:59,880 --> 00:25:01,059
明智的做法是

822
00:25:01,059 --> 00:25:02,099
我回到乔什之前的观点

823
00:25:02,099 --> 00:25:04,430
要考虑仓位规模

824
00:25:04,430 --> 00:25:05,849
我这样做了高通

825
00:25:05,849 --> 00:25:07,549
今天减仓一半

826
00:25:07,549 --> 00:25:09,430
因为我认为发生的事情

827
00:25:09,430 --> 00:25:14,369
未来2027年的潜在收益可能提前到今天

828
00:25:14,369 --> 00:25:16,750
我并未完全放弃持仓

829
00:25:16,750 --> 00:25:19,299
因为我仍看好投资逻辑

830
00:25:19,299 --> 00:25:20,640
手机市场增长

831
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:23,700
高通的多元化布局

832
00:25:23,700 --> 00:25:24,440
这是个动作

833
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:27,019
我对高通这里更担心

834
00:25:27,019 --> 00:25:29,200
高通今日股价13美元

835
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:32,710
如果AMD这么做会像

836
00:25:32,710 --> 00:25:33,670
哎呀糟糕

837
00:25:33,670 --> 00:25:35,549
或许这波行情即将结束

838
00:25:35,549 --> 00:25:36,490
AMD的动向

839
00:25:36,490 --> 00:25:37,269
这是小动作

840
00:25:37,269 --> 00:25:38,309
这就是小动作

841
00:25:38,309 --> 00:25:38,829
天啊

842
00:25:38,829 --> 00:25:39,609
看看这个

843
00:25:39,609 --> 00:25:40,309
天啊

844
00:25:40,309 --> 00:25:41,410
现在只跌了3%

845
00:25:41,410 --> 00:25:42,109
2%

846
00:25:42,109 --> 00:25:43,690
这就是小动作

847
00:25:43,690 --> 00:25:44,150
你知道的

848
00:25:44,150 --> 00:25:47,569
但当你看到像高通下跌13%这样的情况

849
00:25:47,569 --> 00:25:50,190
这让我更担心的是类似

850
00:25:50,190 --> 00:25:55,359
哦天啊像这样并延伸到汽车和数据中心领域

851
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:57,720
但无论如何我必须尊重市场动向

852
00:25:57,720 --> 00:25:59,519
所以我打算减掉一半仓位

853
00:25:59,519 --> 00:26:00,759
所以你在从仓位中获利了结

854
00:26:00,759 --> 00:26:01,819
谈到高通时

855
00:26:01,819 --> 00:26:04,240
你认为他们的业务动向如何

856
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,180
在手机和汽车领域的发展是否被提前透支

857
00:26:07,180 --> 00:26:08,299
还是说其他因素

858
00:26:08,299 --> 00:26:11,319
股价被透支是因为收益预期被提前消化

859
00:26:11,329 --> 00:26:13,519
这些将进入AI设备领域

860
00:26:13,519 --> 00:26:14,799
你认为这已经反映在股价中

861
00:26:14,799 --> 00:26:15,619
这已经被提前透支了

862
00:26:15,619 --> 00:26:16,000
同样

863
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:16,160
是的

864
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:16,779
我确实

865
00:26:16,779 --> 00:26:18,140
就像我和杰森之前讨论的

866
00:26:18,140 --> 00:26:20,740
过去一周我在节目中多次提到过

867
00:26:20,740 --> 00:26:23,839
两周前我们收到了高通的财报

868
00:26:23,839 --> 00:26:25,940
其实并没有那么好

869
00:26:25,940 --> 00:26:28,250
他们下调了下一季度的指引

870
00:26:28,250 --> 00:26:29,970
但所有人都抓住了这一点

871
00:26:29,970 --> 00:26:33,500
他们获得了一个未命名的数据中心客户

872
00:26:33,500 --> 00:26:35,059
这其实不是新消息

873
00:26:35,059 --> 00:26:35,420
杰森

874
00:26:35,420 --> 00:26:37,599
对我们长期持有者来说这不是新闻

875
00:26:37,599 --> 00:26:39,210
但市场却抓住了这一点

876
00:26:39,210 --> 00:26:40,690
将其作为理由

877
00:26:40,690 --> 00:26:41,190
你知道的

878
00:26:41,190 --> 00:26:41,490
乔什

879
00:26:41,490 --> 00:26:43,339
这可能正是你在说的

880
00:26:43,339 --> 00:26:44,339
股价继续上涨

881
00:26:44,339 --> 00:26:45,619
并寻找支撑理由

882
00:26:45,619 --> 00:26:47,740
而理由是任何长期持有者都

883
00:26:47,740 --> 00:26:50,299
这里需要区分

884
00:26:50,299 --> 00:26:52,980
比如高通和AMD的区别

885
00:26:53,069 --> 00:26:54,789
高通依赖的是

886
00:26:54,789 --> 00:26:55,409
希望

887
00:26:55,409 --> 00:26:58,068
我们可能获得数据中心客户

888
00:26:58,068 --> 00:27:02,028
希望我们能奇迹般地在这些市场中竞争

889
00:27:02,028 --> 00:27:03,170
非常顺利

890
00:27:03,170 --> 00:27:07,009
而AMD不是依赖希望

891
00:27:07,009 --> 00:27:08,609
CPU需求激增

892
00:27:08,609 --> 00:27:10,589
将大幅受益

893
00:27:10,589 --> 00:27:13,159
没错GPU需求激增

894
00:27:13,159 --> 00:27:15,269
45系列产品即将量产

895
00:27:15,269 --> 00:27:16,809
他们已有客户排队

896
00:27:16,809 --> 00:27:17,490
所有大客户

897
00:27:17,490 --> 00:27:18,869
你想要的客户都有

898
00:27:18,869 --> 00:27:20,390
这些芯片并非依赖于

899
00:27:20,390 --> 00:27:21,930
希望寄托于

900
00:27:21,930 --> 00:27:23,430
我们即将赚取巨额财富

901
00:27:23,430 --> 00:27:24,190
简直难以置信

902
00:27:24,190 --> 00:27:25,470
我们的利润率即将飙升

903
00:27:25,470 --> 00:27:28,679
每股收益将在未来数年大幅增长

904
00:27:28,679 --> 00:27:29,798
这不是关于希望的故事

905
00:27:29,798 --> 00:27:31,118
这是基本面的故事

906
00:27:31,118 --> 00:27:34,679
这才是区分像高通这样的股票与其他股票的关键

907
00:27:34,679 --> 00:27:36,829
比如AMD和高通

908
00:27:36,829 --> 00:27:39,470
谁能预料到这只股票未来三年

909
00:27:39,470 --> 00:27:39,930
六个月

910
00:27:39,930 --> 00:27:40,539
十二个月

911
00:27:40,539 --> 00:27:41,819
二十四个月左右

912
00:27:41,819 --> 00:27:42,539
我并不意外

913
00:27:42,539 --> 00:27:43,180
如果我的直线图

914
00:27:43,180 --> 00:27:44,220
如果它上涨我也不会惊讶

915
00:27:44,220 --> 00:27:44,740
如果它下跌我也不会惊讶

916
00:27:44,740 --> 00:27:45,969
如果它下跌

917
00:27:45,969 --> 00:27:48,189
我们清楚A和D的情况

918
00:27:48,189 --> 00:27:51,249
并非所有股票都相同

919
00:27:51,249 --> 00:27:53,659
你正在参加Dena科学会议

920
00:27:53,659 --> 00:27:54,578
GFC

921
00:27:54,578 --> 00:27:57,598
疫情剥离了这些因素，排除复苏影响

922
00:27:57,598 --> 00:27:58,638
上次是什么时候

923
00:27:58,638 --> 00:28:02,369
财报季及带裙摆的盈利预测

924
00:28:02,369 --> 00:28:05,289
我实在想不起类似情况

925
00:28:05,289 --> 00:28:06,049
这太非凡了

926
00:28:07,089 --> 00:28:09,119
第一季度财报揭晓

927
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:12,680
预期其实并不糟糕

928
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:13,960
进入第一季度前

929
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:14,819
财报季

930
00:28:14,819 --> 00:28:15,299
实际上

931
00:28:15,299 --> 00:28:16,539
表现相当稳健

932
00:28:16,539 --> 00:28:19,308
结果却远超预期

933
00:28:19,308 --> 00:28:23,148
更令人惊讶的是分析师上调了第二

934
00:28:23,148 --> 00:28:24,859
第三和第四季度数据

935
00:28:24,859 --> 00:28:27,920
现在看来第一季度或将增长约十八%

936
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:28,599
同比

937
00:28:28,599 --> 00:28:30,099
第一季度增长十八%

938
00:28:30,099 --> 00:28:31,559
全年来看

939
00:28:31,559 --> 00:28:34,480
预计增长二十四%

940
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:36,339
这绝对前所未有

941
00:28:36,339 --> 00:28:37,109
太惊人了

942
00:28:37,109 --> 00:28:38,430
82.50

943
00:28:39,509 --> 00:28:41,349
新的标普500目标价

944
00:28:41,349 --> 00:28:41,630
好的

945
00:28:41,630 --> 00:28:42,579
埃德加和爸爸

946
00:28:42,579 --> 00:28:43,880
非常看涨

947
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:44,640
非常看涨

948
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:45,619
之前的几位先生

949
00:28:45,619 --> 00:28:46,140
我是说

950
00:28:46,140 --> 00:28:48,789
他们似乎都更谨慎一些

951
00:28:48,789 --> 00:28:50,329
我们可以称之为不一定是看空

952
00:28:50,329 --> 00:28:52,659
但绝对谨慎

953
00:28:52,739 --> 00:28:53,459
你是丹尼

954
00:28:53,459 --> 00:28:54,538
不是不看空

955
00:28:54,538 --> 00:28:55,419
不谨慎

956
00:28:55,419 --> 00:28:56,138
看多

957
00:28:56,138 --> 00:28:57,778
八十二点五

958
00:28:57,778 --> 00:28:59,098
他认为p五

959
00:28:59,098 --> 00:29:00,538
我打算在年底买入八

960
00:29:00,538 --> 00:29:01,500
哇

961
00:29:01,500 --> 00:29:03,180
差不多两位数涨幅

962
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:08,339
在长期增长的经济中看不到

963
00:29:08,339 --> 00:29:10,279
纵观行业板块

964
00:29:10,279 --> 00:29:14,140
半导体目前占标普五百指数约18%

965
00:29:14,140 --> 00:29:18,470
芯片公司承担了多少重担

966
00:29:18,470 --> 00:29:19,930
我认为这是其中一部分

967
00:29:19,930 --> 00:29:24,750
但我们也看到小型股和中型股

968
00:29:24,750 --> 00:29:29,460
盈利预期已升至历史新高

969
00:29:29,460 --> 00:29:33,839
而这两个市场领域此前几乎停滞

970
00:29:33,910 --> 00:29:39,019
自2022年以来盈利预期一直持平

971
00:29:39,019 --> 00:29:41,289
而在过去六个月

972
00:29:41,289 --> 00:29:45,269
我们突然看到它们回升至新高

973
00:29:45,269 --> 00:29:48,480
因此市场广度实际上在改善

974
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:49,579
如果情况属实

975
00:29:49,579 --> 00:29:52,829
这将推动市场广度提升

976
00:29:52,829 --> 00:29:54,269
这种趋势可持续吗

977
00:29:54,269 --> 00:29:56,950
考虑到消费者日益

978
00:29:56,950 --> 00:29:58,819
抵制价格上涨

979
00:29:58,819 --> 00:30:00,420
越来越挑剔

980
00:30:00,420 --> 00:30:04,779
因市场通胀压力所致

981
00:30:05,169 --> 00:30:05,568
嗯

982
00:30:05,568 --> 00:30:06,689
你之前提到过

983
00:30:06,689 --> 00:30:10,048
普遍认为这是K型经济

984
00:30:10,048 --> 00:30:13,609
许多人面临 affordability危机

985
00:30:13,609 --> 00:30:16,220
只有少数人受益

986
00:30:16,220 --> 00:30:19,059
我并非否定这一点

987
00:30:19,059 --> 00:30:22,359
但很多人忽略了人口结构影响

988
00:30:22,359 --> 00:30:23,579
我是婴儿潮一代

989
00:30:23,579 --> 00:30:25,009
仍在为生计工作

990
00:30:25,009 --> 00:30:27,589
但看到许多朋友退休

991
00:30:27,589 --> 00:30:33,359
婴儿潮一代集体净资产达89万亿美元

992
00:30:33,359 --> 00:30:34,920
开始逐步消费

993
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,259
所有关于可支配收入的担忧

994
00:30:37,259 --> 00:30:38,130
趋于平缓

995
00:30:38,130 --> 00:30:38,450
嗯

996
00:30:38,450 --> 00:30:39,269
这是自然现象

997
00:30:39,269 --> 00:30:40,029
我的意思是

998
00:30:40,029 --> 00:30:44,430
婴儿潮一代正处于事业巅峰并即将退休

999
00:30:44,430 --> 00:30:45,630
所以曲线趋于平缓

1000
00:30:45,630 --> 00:30:49,769
与此同时他们正在动用退休资产

1001
00:30:49,769 --> 00:30:51,269
因此他们持续消费

1002
00:30:51,269 --> 00:30:55,839
我认为许多婴儿潮一代在帮助年轻成人子女

1003
00:30:55,839 --> 00:30:57,259
可能支付房贷

1004
00:30:57,259 --> 00:31:00,519
协助孙辈课后活动

1005
00:31:00,519 --> 00:31:01,789
其中一些费用

1006
00:31:01,789 --> 00:31:04,349
我亲身经历过

1007
00:31:04,349 --> 00:31:05,829
也从朋友那里看到

1008
00:31:05,829 --> 00:31:08,869
所以我认为这里缺少了什么

1009
00:31:08,869 --> 00:31:13,599
这解释了消费者为何如此坚韧

1010
00:31:13,599 --> 00:31:15,250
我认为这种情况仍在持续

1011
00:31:15,250 --> 00:31:15,529
所以

1012
00:31:15,529 --> 00:31:21,190
我不认同经济仅靠资本支撑的观点

1013
00:31:21,190 --> 00:31:22,529
科技支出

1014
00:31:22,529 --> 00:31:24,150
天啊这不可能

1015
00:31:24,150 --> 00:31:24,750
笑话是埃德加

1016
00:31:24,750 --> 00:31:27,319
丹尼提出了绝佳观点

1017
00:31:27,319 --> 00:31:28,519
你知道吗

1018
00:31:28,519 --> 00:31:30,829
我一生只退休过一次

1019
00:31:30,829 --> 00:31:31,750
确实如此

1020
00:31:31,750 --> 00:31:33,519
我一生只退休过一次

1021
00:31:33,519 --> 00:31:37,559
我两岁四个月时退休了一年多

1022
00:31:37,559 --> 00:31:38,980
我只是四处闲逛

1023
00:31:38,980 --> 00:31:40,200
我仍投资股票

1024
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:40,700
当然

1025
00:31:40,700 --> 00:31:41,559
但啊

1026
00:31:41,559 --> 00:31:43,148
我什么都没做

1027
00:31:43,148 --> 00:31:43,989
与收入相关

1028
00:31:43,989 --> 00:31:45,548
没找工作

1029
00:31:45,548 --> 00:31:47,028
难道你不知道吗

1030
00:31:47,028 --> 00:31:48,148
我靠储蓄生活

1031
00:31:48,148 --> 00:31:49,400
我存了

1032
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:50,559
两百万元

1033
00:31:50,559 --> 00:31:52,819
可能在股票里

1034
00:31:52,819 --> 00:31:55,400
于是我从投资组合中取钱

1035
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:56,930
我喜欢付租金

1036
00:31:56,930 --> 00:31:58,509
住在三居室公寓

1037
00:31:58,509 --> 00:32:01,470
每月租金约一千一百五十美元

1038
00:32:01,470 --> 00:32:02,890
但啊

1039
00:32:03,619 --> 00:32:06,250
关于那次退休我要告诉你的是

1040
00:32:06,650 --> 00:32:09,309
退休后你更可能花更多钱

1041
00:32:09,309 --> 00:32:12,049
你知道为什么吗因为时间多了

1042
00:32:12,049 --> 00:32:14,269
你会找事做

1043
00:32:14,269 --> 00:32:16,630
更可能去打高尔夫

1044
00:32:16,630 --> 00:32:18,130
更可能外出

1045
00:32:18,130 --> 00:32:19,470
更可能去商场

1046
00:32:19,470 --> 00:32:20,069
因为容易感到无聊

1047
00:32:20,069 --> 00:32:22,130
你就像我想做正确的事

1048
00:32:22,130 --> 00:32:23,509
所以你知道

1049
00:32:23,509 --> 00:32:25,390
因为当你工作正确时

1050
00:32:25,390 --> 00:32:28,430
你喜欢每周投入四十到五十小时

1051
00:32:28,430 --> 00:32:30,069
可能更多取决于通勤时间

1052
00:32:30,069 --> 00:32:31,190
还有所有这类事情

1053
00:32:31,190 --> 00:32:34,309
这占据了大量时间，而时间本就紧张

1054
00:32:34,309 --> 00:32:36,130
这是你无法用于花钱的时间

1055
00:32:36,130 --> 00:32:37,269
因为你正在赚钱

1056
00:32:37,269 --> 00:32:38,190
你正在上班

1057
00:32:38,190 --> 00:32:39,269
你在做那件事

1058
00:32:39,269 --> 00:32:40,630
你在经营你的生意

1059
00:32:40,630 --> 00:32:42,109
所以是的

1060
00:32:42,109 --> 00:32:43,309
所有这些婴儿潮一代退休了

1061
00:32:43,309 --> 00:32:44,509
他们会花很多钱

1062
00:32:44,509 --> 00:32:45,789
因为他们有很多钱

1063
00:32:45,789 --> 00:32:47,309
他们有很多钱

1064
00:32:47,309 --> 00:32:49,980
这笔钱将注入经济

1065
00:32:49,980 --> 00:32:53,569
没错，婴儿潮一代喜欢做的事

1066
00:32:53,569 --> 00:32:55,230
需要很多人来做

1067
00:32:55,230 --> 00:32:56,589
无论是谈论去打高尔夫

1068
00:32:56,589 --> 00:32:58,789
以及管理高尔夫球场的人

1069
00:32:58,789 --> 00:33:00,970
无论是谈论去邮轮旅行

1070
00:33:00,970 --> 00:33:02,049
需要大量员工

1071
00:33:02,049 --> 00:33:04,190
无论是谈论去这家酒店度假

1072
00:33:04,190 --> 00:33:05,069
来到我的城市

1073
00:33:05,069 --> 00:33:05,509
拉斯维加斯

1074
00:33:05,509 --> 00:33:07,009
快来拉斯维加斯吧

1075
00:33:07,009 --> 00:33:09,230
他们想做什么都有大量员工支持

1076
00:33:09,230 --> 00:33:10,170
去餐厅吃饭

1077
00:33:10,170 --> 00:33:10,670
去做这件事

1078
00:33:10,670 --> 00:33:12,069
去做那件事

1079
00:33:12,069 --> 00:33:14,170
这都是人的生意

1080
00:33:14,170 --> 00:33:15,369
所以嗯

1081
00:33:15,369 --> 00:33:16,710
这是一个有趣的点

1082
00:33:16,710 --> 00:33:18,419
我知道

1083
00:33:18,419 --> 00:33:19,318
非常有趣的点

1084
00:33:19,318 --> 00:33:20,679
埃德·亚恩迪的精彩观点

1085
00:33:20,679 --> 00:33:21,179
没错

1086
00:33:21,179 --> 00:33:21,959
几家公司

1087
00:33:21,959 --> 00:33:24,529
我认为消费者确实存在

1088
00:33:24,529 --> 00:33:26,950
第四季度消费疲软

1089
00:33:26,950 --> 00:33:29,119
第一季度受天气影响

1090
00:33:29,119 --> 00:33:30,480
我们即将检验这一点

1091
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:32,079
看看零售销售情况

1092
00:33:32,079 --> 00:33:35,589
接下来整合所有信息

1093
00:33:35,589 --> 00:33:38,549
我认为经济依然坚韧

1094
00:33:38,549 --> 00:33:41,119
自年初以来一直如此

1095
00:33:41,119 --> 00:33:43,990
我称之为 roaring twenty twenty 年代，目前形势良好

1096
00:33:43,990 --> 00:33:44,809
如果情况如此

1097
00:33:44,809 --> 00:33:50,259
那么，我们是否真的会看到更可持续的通胀率逐步上升

1098
00:33:50,259 --> 00:33:53,670
这是由于消费者支出能力的增强所致

1099
00:33:53,670 --> 00:33:57,269
货币供应量增加以及供给侧冲击后

1100
00:33:57,269 --> 00:33:57,509
冲击

1101
00:33:57,509 --> 00:33:58,900
这冲击了经济

1102
00:33:58,900 --> 00:33:59,420
是的

1103
00:33:59,420 --> 00:34:00,720
这是个很好的观点

1104
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:05,839
我认为我们最近有一个典型案例

1105
00:34:05,839 --> 00:34:11,239
那就是在2022年我们经历了能源价格飙升

1106
00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:14,360
这建立在供给侧的干扰基础之上

1107
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:17,019
还有供应链中断的问题

1108
00:34:17,019 --> 00:34:19,519
可以说现在正在发生类似情况

1109
00:34:19,519 --> 00:34:23,159
但关键区别在于工资通胀正在明显缓和

1110
00:34:23,159 --> 00:34:28,188
劳动力市场已达到供需平衡

1111
00:34:28,188 --> 00:34:28,989
供给等于需求

1112
00:34:28,989 --> 00:34:31,789
我们看不到工资大幅上涨压力

1113
00:34:31,789 --> 00:34:36,909
而在2021-2022年我们经历了大量工资压力

1114
00:34:36,909 --> 00:34:39,469
当时劳动力供需都存在较大缺口

1115
00:34:39,469 --> 00:34:41,519
导致了工资-物价螺旋上升

1116
00:34:41,519 --> 00:34:43,599
我认为当前通胀缺失的关键因素

1117
00:34:43,599 --> 00:34:45,500
这次没有工资-物价螺旋

1118
00:34:45,500 --> 00:34:47,380
我们确实面临能源价格飙升

1119
00:34:47,380 --> 00:34:52,068
这将在未来几个月推高通胀

1120
00:34:52,068 --> 00:34:56,329
但债券和股市基本已消化这一影响

1121
00:34:56,329 --> 00:34:57,009
顺便说一句

1122
00:34:57,009 --> 00:34:58,789
我有点...

1123
00:34:58,789 --> 00:35:02,710
收益率在4.25%到4.75%之间是正常水平

1124
00:35:02,710 --> 00:35:04,440
我不为此感到恐慌

1125
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:05,079
嗯

1126
00:35:05,079 --> 00:35:05,800
你知道的

1127
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:06,519
突然我们

1128
00:35:06,519 --> 00:35:08,739
我们将看到债券狙击手开始行动

1129
00:35:08,739 --> 00:35:10,719
所以我现在在观察他们

1130
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:14,760
债券狙击手在东京和伦敦活跃

1131
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:17,340
这里还没看到

1132
00:35:17,340 --> 00:35:17,960
暂时还没

1133
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:18,980
埃德，考虑到这些

1134
00:35:18,980 --> 00:35:19,800
继续这个话题

1135
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:20,960
何时会构成威胁

1136
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:23,400
这种走势对固定收益市场

1137
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:23,920
这很有趣

1138
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:25,320
几年前

1139
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:28,099
我想是2024年

1140
00:35:28,099 --> 00:35:33,409
债券收益率三个月内从4%升至5%

1141
00:35:34,489 --> 00:35:37,090
那是8月到10月

1142
00:35:37,730 --> 00:35:41,449
并在11月1日达到5%

1143
00:35:41,449 --> 00:35:42,730
珍妮特·耶伦

1144
00:35:42,730 --> 00:35:44,090
当时担任财政部长

1145
00:35:44,090 --> 00:35:44,530
她表示

1146
00:35:44,530 --> 00:35:44,809
好吧

1147
00:35:44,809 --> 00:35:45,070
好的

1148
00:35:45,070 --> 00:35:48,780
财政部不会增加债券供应量

1149
00:35:48,780 --> 00:35:52,289
我们将通过票据市场进行融资

1150
00:35:52,289 --> 00:35:54,949
因此债券市场并非唯一参与者

1151
00:35:54,949 --> 00:35:57,920
顺便说一句，债券价格大幅下跌

1152
00:36:02,300 --> 00:36:03,199
以防止

1153
00:36:03,199 --> 00:36:04,280
突破5%

1154
00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:05,239
除此之外

1155
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:07,869
我认为仍有克里交易在进行中，其中

1156
00:36:07,869 --> 00:36:12,079
许多对冲基金实际上在开曼群岛

1157
00:36:12,079 --> 00:36:14,539
或至少其账目设在开曼群岛

1158
00:36:14,539 --> 00:36:17,639
在日本借入零点七

1159
00:36:17,639 --> 00:36:21,349
5%利率购买债券并获取利差

1160
00:36:21,349 --> 00:36:21,929
你觉得

1161
00:36:21,929 --> 00:36:24,728
凯文·沃尔什是否愿意动用美联储资产负债表

1162
00:36:24,728 --> 00:36:26,670
干预国债市场

1163
00:36:28,750 --> 00:36:30,940
我认为贝森

1164
00:36:31,579 --> 00:36:31,880
部长

1165
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:32,840
贝森

1166
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:35,920
有意愿去做他之前反对的事

1167
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:37,719
就像谢尔顿·雅各布森那样

1168
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:40,559
即发行更多票据减少债券

1169
00:36:40,559 --> 00:36:42,159
如果有必要的话

1170
00:36:42,159 --> 00:36:44,559
我不认为他们会坐视不管

1171
00:36:44,559 --> 00:36:47,159
让国债收益率从5%涨到6%

1172
00:36:47,159 --> 00:36:48,840
我不认为会走到这一步

1173
00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:50,440
我认为有很多

1174
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:50,800
呃

1175
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:51,800
美国债券

1176
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:53,440
债券仍被视为避险资产

1177
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:58,400
如今确实有很多令人担忧的因素

1178
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:03,360
人们总能找到赚钱的方式

1179
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:03,639
没错

1180
00:37:03,639 --> 00:37:05,260
这简直疯狂

1181
00:37:05,260 --> 00:37:08,710
在日本借日元在开曼群岛操作

1182
00:37:09,340 --> 00:37:10,260
然后

1183
00:37:10,260 --> 00:37:12,559
去购买美国国债

1184
00:37:12,559 --> 00:37:13,559
赚取利差收益

1185
00:37:13,559 --> 00:37:14,099
这

1186
00:37:14,099 --> 00:37:15,400
这太有意思了

1187
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:15,760
好的

1188
00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:16,280
接下来这个

1189
00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:19,519
丹·内斯认为市场泡沫还能膨胀更多

1190
00:37:19,519 --> 00:37:20,440
这不是宠物

1191
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:20,920
嗯

1192
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:21,400
当一切

1193
00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:21,800
你知道的

1194
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:25,380
它仅有数美元现金流却一夜三倍

1195
00:37:25,380 --> 00:37:30,630
你真的能看到这些股票现在和过去的行为有相似之处吗

1196
00:37:30,630 --> 00:37:32,889
但这并不意味着这种情况不能继续

1197
00:37:32,889 --> 00:37:35,949
这就是我想做的类比

1198
00:37:35,949 --> 00:37:40,489
因为回顾互联网建设时期

1199
00:37:40,489 --> 00:37:44,849
所以1994年底出现了网景导航者浏览器

1200
00:37:44,849 --> 00:37:49,030
纳斯达克在接下来三年上涨了109%

1201
00:37:49,030 --> 00:37:50,329
到了第四年

1202
00:37:50,329 --> 00:37:53,050
尽管纳斯达克上涨了40%

1203
00:37:53,050 --> 00:37:55,750
然后在第五年1999年

1204
00:37:55,750 --> 00:37:57,610
涨幅达到86%

1205
00:37:57,610 --> 00:38:02,750
当ChatGPT在2022年底推出时

1206
00:38:02,750 --> 00:38:06,889
三年后纳斯达克已上涨122%

1207
00:38:06,889 --> 00:38:09,659
互联网前三年的涨幅是109%

1208
00:38:09,659 --> 00:38:12,260
我认为今年也会是丰收年

1209
00:38:12,260 --> 00:38:19,659
关键在于互联网建设期间还有两年强劲增长

1210
00:38:19,659 --> 00:38:22,219
我认为今年至少还有一年强劲增长

1211
00:38:22,219 --> 00:38:23,579
所以你可以安心

1212
00:38:23,579 --> 00:38:24,260
他在这里提出

1213
00:38:24,260 --> 00:38:25,179
这是一个惊人观点

1214
00:38:25,179 --> 00:38:26,420
听着

1215
00:38:27,940 --> 00:38:30,599
商业模式会发生根本性变化

1216
00:38:30,599 --> 00:38:33,920
我们之前讨论过AMD的CPU GPU技术

1217
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:37,579
整个股市也可能发生根本性变化

1218
00:38:37,579 --> 00:38:40,880
而这种根本性变化

1219
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:42,320
可能导致股市下跌

1220
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:42,940
大幅下跌

1221
00:38:42,940 --> 00:38:45,860
股市的根本性利好变化

1222
00:38:45,860 --> 00:38:47,719
说到股票

1223
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:49,230
那就是狂欢时刻

1224
00:38:49,230 --> 00:38:52,230
我们现在正经历股市的根本性利好变革

1225
00:38:52,230 --> 00:38:55,630
这是一次巨大的根本性变革

1226
00:38:55,630 --> 00:38:57,099
比如人工智能

1227
00:38:57,579 --> 00:39:01,900
三年四年前几乎无关紧要

1228
00:39:01,900 --> 00:39:03,199
除非你是专家

1229
00:39:03,199 --> 00:39:04,739
人们当时并不真正使用AI

1230
00:39:04,739 --> 00:39:07,420
企业也没有应用

1231
00:39:07,420 --> 00:39:10,780
现在似乎人人都在使用AI

1232
00:39:10,780 --> 00:39:12,400
这一切仅在过去

1233
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:14,420
尤其是最近两到四个月

1234
00:39:14,420 --> 00:39:15,420
最近两到四个月

1235
00:39:15,420 --> 00:39:18,059
现在几乎每个人都在使用AI

1236
00:39:18,059 --> 00:39:19,480
某种程度上

1237
00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:21,690
无论是否意识到

1238
00:39:21,690 --> 00:39:27,030
几乎每家企业都在制定AI战略

1239
00:39:27,030 --> 00:39:28,869
或开发AI工具

1240
00:39:28,869 --> 00:39:30,719
各种AI应用层出不穷

1241
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:32,179
显然大家都知道

1242
00:39:32,179 --> 00:39:36,608
因为OpenAI的营收正在爆炸式增长

1243
00:39:36,608 --> 00:39:38,009
Anthropic的情况如何

1244
00:39:38,009 --> 00:39:39,289
营收增长惊人

1245
00:39:39,289 --> 00:39:42,429
就像我听说从那里泄露的最新数据简直荒谬

1246
00:39:42,429 --> 00:39:43,849
就他们的增长率而言

1247
00:39:43,849 --> 00:39:45,659
这简直令人震惊

1248
00:39:45,659 --> 00:39:46,909
对啊 嗯

1249
00:39:46,909 --> 00:39:48,269
你在服务领域看到了这一点

1250
00:39:48,269 --> 00:39:49,630
现在是AI产品了

1251
00:39:49,630 --> 00:39:52,469
你在salesforce agent force的数据中看到了

1252
00:39:52,469 --> 00:39:53,130
比如

1253
00:39:53,130 --> 00:39:54,349
你在数据中看到了

1254
00:39:54,349 --> 00:39:56,030
你开始在云公司中看到

1255
00:39:56,030 --> 00:39:56,869
甚至对了

1256
00:39:56,869 --> 00:39:58,210
你甚至在像meta这样的公司中看到

1257
00:39:58,210 --> 00:40:00,150
比如Meta的营收增长了33%

1258
00:40:00,150 --> 00:40:00,610
上个季度

1259
00:40:00,610 --> 00:40:01,599
这个数字太疯狂了

1260
00:40:01,599 --> 00:40:04,900
对于像Meta这样的公司来说33%的增长

1261
00:40:04,900 --> 00:40:06,420
但你在aws中看到

1262
00:40:06,420 --> 00:40:07,780
增长仍在加速

1263
00:40:07,780 --> 00:40:08,829
谷歌云

1264
00:40:08,829 --> 00:40:09,590
天啊

1265
00:40:09,590 --> 00:40:11,110
这样的增长率简直疯狂

1266
00:40:11,110 --> 00:40:12,190
我想上个季度是

1267
00:40:12,190 --> 00:40:15,420
我估计是63%

1268
00:40:15,420 --> 00:40:16,699
对于谷歌云来说

1269
00:40:16,699 --> 00:40:16,860
比如

1270
00:40:16,860 --> 00:40:17,960
这是个惊人数字

1271
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:19,679
所以你在企业中看到

1272
00:40:19,679 --> 00:40:22,539
然后我们当然要谈论所有受益的半导体公司

1273
00:40:22,539 --> 00:40:24,320
以及受益的基础设施公司

1274
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:26,159
这正在发生根本性变化

1275
00:40:26,159 --> 00:40:29,800
现在股市正在经历这种变化 这是非常非常好的事情

1276
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:32,019
没错 所以嗯

1277
00:40:32,019 --> 00:40:34,119
派对继续 派对继续 气泡

1278
00:40:34,119 --> 00:40:38,739
但在气泡破裂前它还会大幅膨胀

1279
00:40:38,739 --> 00:40:39,500
这是什么引起的

1280
00:40:39,500 --> 00:40:41,099
我还要补充一点

1281
00:40:41,099 --> 00:40:43,340
说实话 我只有模糊的记忆

1282
00:40:43,340 --> 00:40:44,420
但足以让人知晓

1283
00:40:44,420 --> 00:40:44,900
我是说

1284
00:40:44,900 --> 00:40:46,539
在杂志时代

1285
00:40:46,539 --> 00:40:47,539
你会收到这些杂志

1286
00:40:47,539 --> 00:40:51,090
上面会有所有飙升公司的封面故事

1287
00:40:51,090 --> 00:40:52,829
大家都在做日内交易

1288
00:40:52,829 --> 00:40:55,730
这完全是现象级的

1289
00:40:55,730 --> 00:40:57,050
我不确定我们现在是否到了那个阶段

1290
00:40:57,050 --> 00:40:58,449
对于公众而言

1291
00:40:58,449 --> 00:41:00,010
绝对不是

1292
00:41:00,010 --> 00:41:02,418
但比这更重要的是

1293
00:41:02,418 --> 00:41:04,619
这就是根本上正在发生的事情

1294
00:41:04,619 --> 00:41:09,019
当时互联网流量每季度翻一番

1295
00:41:09,019 --> 00:41:11,340
这种势头一直持续到现在

1296
00:41:11,340 --> 00:41:15,739
今年年初发生了一件重大事件

1297
00:41:15,739 --> 00:41:17,400
这基本上是开放的

1298
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:20,579
克劳于1月30日最终确定

1299
00:41:20,579 --> 00:41:24,409
关于这一点需要理解的重要之处在于

1300
00:41:24,409 --> 00:41:26,650
如果要与互联网时代相比

1301
00:41:26,650 --> 00:41:30,699
整个情况发展得快得多

1302
00:41:31,778 --> 00:41:36,590
互联网时代的发展速度远不及AI

1303
00:41:36,590 --> 00:41:38,730
你知道很多人可能会说

1304
00:41:38,730 --> 00:41:38,989
好的

1305
00:41:38,989 --> 00:41:42,210
人们开始接触互联网主要是在94-95年

1306
00:41:42,210 --> 00:41:42,690
没错

1307
00:41:42,690 --> 00:41:43,420
嗯

1308
00:41:43,420 --> 00:41:45,579
就消费者而言

1309
00:41:45,579 --> 00:41:50,000
但很多人直到98年甚至更久仍在使用互联网

1310
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:52,309
99年甚至进入2000年代

1311
00:41:52,309 --> 00:41:54,989
在人们真正在家接入互联网之前

1312
00:41:54,989 --> 00:41:57,289
即便那时很多人仍未普及

1313
00:41:57,289 --> 00:42:01,670
似乎每个美国家庭都已接入某种网络

1314
00:42:01,670 --> 00:42:03,728
没错，可能是通过手机运营商

1315
00:42:03,728 --> 00:42:04,768
或者通过

1316
00:42:04,768 --> 00:42:06,768
像真正的互联网服务商

1317
00:42:06,768 --> 00:42:09,900
但这个过程耗时很长

1318
00:42:09,900 --> 00:42:12,139
直到成为普遍现象用了很长时间

1319
00:42:12,139 --> 00:42:12,858
AI

1320
00:42:12,858 --> 00:42:15,778
似乎几乎所有人都开始使用

1321
00:42:15,778 --> 00:42:17,539
AI 并且这一进程仅在过去

1322
00:42:17,539 --> 00:42:18,679
约四个月

1323
00:42:18,679 --> 00:42:20,260
如果他们尚未使用AI

1324
00:42:20,260 --> 00:42:23,800
似乎未来十二个月内他们将开始使用

1325
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:26,659
无论是工作还是生活

1326
00:42:26,659 --> 00:42:28,750
这简直令人难以置信

1327
00:42:28,750 --> 00:42:32,750
发展速度远超互联网时代

1328
00:42:32,750 --> 00:42:36,900
公司规模远超互联网时代

1329
00:42:36,900 --> 00:42:40,059
这催生了整个AI领域

1330
00:42:40,059 --> 00:42:40,860
在此之前

1331
00:42:40,860 --> 00:42:41,500
凯利对吧

1332
00:42:41,500 --> 00:42:43,469
你会向聊天工具

1333
00:42:43,469 --> 00:42:45,568
GPT或Gemini提问

1334
00:42:45,568 --> 00:42:46,929
它会给出答案

1335
00:42:46,929 --> 00:42:49,500
这就是基于聊天的AI

1336
00:42:49,500 --> 00:42:49,900
嗯

1337
00:42:49,900 --> 00:42:51,340
结合Entiyou

1338
00:42:51,340 --> 00:42:51,960
可能会说嘿

1339
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:53,360
去SCC官网

1340
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:54,099
下载这个

1341
00:42:54,099 --> 00:42:55,159
去CNBC

1342
00:42:55,159 --> 00:42:56,318
下载这个

1343
00:42:56,318 --> 00:43:00,688
去任意网站

1344
00:43:00,688 --> 00:43:02,509
获取一些股票信息

1345
00:43:02,509 --> 00:43:04,369
然后将其全部整理到电子表格中

1346
00:43:04,369 --> 00:43:06,880
我希望你以这种方式整理

1347
00:43:06,880 --> 00:43:10,000
这需要十到一百倍更多的时间

1348
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:11,148
计算能力

1349
00:43:11,148 --> 00:43:12,068
不要这样做

1350
00:43:12,068 --> 00:43:13,829
使用千乘x股票网

1351
00:43:13,829 --> 00:43:14,869
这好得多

1352
00:43:14,869 --> 00:43:17,869
简单到荒谬

1353
00:43:17,869 --> 00:43:19,469
这种事情太荒谬了

1354
00:43:19,469 --> 00:43:21,128
你可以在代币中看到

1355
00:43:21,128 --> 00:43:24,708
比几秒内的数据好得多

1356
00:43:24,708 --> 00:43:28,190
在开放爪子最终确定前两个月

1357
00:43:28,190 --> 00:43:29,969
代币增长约20%

1358
00:43:29,969 --> 00:43:34,190
在开放爪子最终确定后两个月

1359
00:43:34,190 --> 00:43:36,559
增长超过120%

1360
00:43:36,559 --> 00:43:40,630
在我看来至少会有强劲增长

1361
00:43:40,630 --> 00:43:43,010
到明年年初

1362
00:43:43,010 --> 00:43:46,309
之后你将面对更难的对比

1363
00:43:46,309 --> 00:43:47,789
然后我们看看会发生什么

1364
00:43:47,789 --> 00:43:50,380
但这是主要区别

1365
00:43:50,380 --> 00:43:51,920
至少在现阶段

1366
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:55,170
我认为互联网第四第五年

1367
00:43:55,170 --> 00:43:59,489
现在需要这种代币生成的重大跃升

1368
00:43:59,489 --> 00:44:00,130
提醒我

1369
00:44:00,130 --> 00:44:03,480
是什么导致科技股泡沫破裂

1370
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:04,840
但那是2000年三月

1371
00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:05,639
市场达到顶峰

1372
00:44:05,639 --> 00:44:06,039
你还记得吗

1373
00:44:06,039 --> 00:44:07,800
是否有相关故事或数据点

1374
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:08,500
是的不

1375
00:44:08,500 --> 00:44:10,739
百分之百没错

1376
00:44:10,739 --> 00:44:11,420
你得记住

1377
00:44:11,420 --> 00:44:13,719
是什么引爆了泡沫

1378
00:44:13,719 --> 00:44:14,719
信不信由你

1379
00:44:14,719 --> 00:44:15,639
1998年

1380
00:44:15,639 --> 00:44:18,199
美联储大幅降息

1381
00:44:18,199 --> 00:44:19,579
资金持续流动

1382
00:44:19,579 --> 00:44:20,938
到了1999年

1383
00:44:20,938 --> 00:44:23,739
尽管美联储开始加息

1384
00:44:23,739 --> 00:44:24,849
从六月开始

1385
00:44:24,849 --> 00:44:27,449
还记得Y2K危机吗

1386
00:44:27,449 --> 00:44:27,849
哦对

1387
00:44:27,849 --> 00:44:31,190
2000年电脑会全球崩溃

1388
00:44:31,190 --> 00:44:36,130
美联储在背后大量放水

1389
00:44:36,130 --> 00:44:40,110
M2货币供应量增长超10%

1390
00:44:40,110 --> 00:44:42,688
这支撑了市场

1391
00:44:42,688 --> 00:44:46,909
顺便说油价在2000年飙升

1392
00:44:46,989 --> 00:44:49,929
美联储开始撤回流动性

1393
00:44:49,929 --> 00:44:52,269
因为一月一日系统没崩溃

1394
00:44:52,269 --> 00:44:53,590
2000年1月1日

1395
00:44:53,590 --> 00:44:56,630
于是你拿走了这两样东西

1396
00:44:56,630 --> 00:45:00,429
互联网流量从每三个月翻一番变为每年翻一番

1397
00:45:00,429 --> 00:45:01,719
这其实还不错

1398
00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:07,710
但这种放缓并未被估值模型所预设

1399
00:45:07,710 --> 00:45:10,309
然后纳斯达克又回落到

1400
00:45:10,309 --> 00:45:12,309
正值1996年中期

1401
00:45:12,309 --> 00:45:15,860
在两年半内下跌了86%

1402
00:45:15,860 --> 00:45:17,760
然后是的

1403
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:19,139
我意思是另一面

1404
00:45:19,139 --> 00:45:20,289
我们继续吧

1405
00:45:20,289 --> 00:45:21,010
百分之百正确

1406
00:45:21,010 --> 00:45:23,530
这里有一个积极的平衡点

1407
00:45:23,530 --> 00:45:25,110
如果你们还没看过这个视频

1408
00:45:25,110 --> 00:45:26,010
一定要去观看

1409
00:45:26,010 --> 00:45:27,530
嗯一百四十

1410
00:45:27,530 --> 00:45:28,889
目前有一千人观看

1411
00:45:28,889 --> 00:45:29,809
刚刚发布20小时

1412
00:45:29,809 --> 00:45:31,550
这支股票就是我的下一支AMD/美光

1413
00:45:31,550 --> 00:45:32,389
天啊

1414
00:45:32,389 --> 00:45:33,849
视频里提到了很多股票

1415
00:45:33,849 --> 00:45:38,599
但有趣的是这种平衡

1416
00:45:38,599 --> 00:45:40,199
而科技泡沫时期没有这种情况

1417
00:45:40,199 --> 00:45:40,320
是的

1418
00:45:40,320 --> 00:45:40,559
我意思是

1419
00:45:40,559 --> 00:45:41,619
存在太多差异

1420
00:45:41,619 --> 00:45:42,719
我不一一列举了

1421
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:45,400
但我想强调的是

1422
00:45:45,400 --> 00:45:46,179
假设

1423
00:45:47,420 --> 00:45:48,019
假设

1424
00:45:48,019 --> 00:45:50,710
Meta、谷歌、亚马逊

1425
00:45:50,710 --> 00:45:51,269
你们知道的

1426
00:45:51,269 --> 00:45:52,429
这些大科技公司

1427
00:45:52,429 --> 00:45:54,150
微软等等全部列出来

1428
00:45:54,150 --> 00:45:57,389
假设他们两年后削减开支

1429
00:45:57,389 --> 00:45:58,389
当然还有他们说

1430
00:45:58,389 --> 00:46:00,400
我们正在削减开支

1431
00:46:00,400 --> 00:46:05,980
这对AMD、美光、英伟达等股票不利

1432
00:46:05,980 --> 00:46:07,159
这类股票都会下跌

1433
00:46:07,159 --> 00:46:09,340
因此半导体股票下跌

1434
00:46:09,340 --> 00:46:09,880
你可能会想

1435
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:12,179
糟糕了，股市完蛋了

1436
00:46:12,179 --> 00:46:14,800
我可以有力论证现金储备

1437
00:46:14,800 --> 00:46:17,039
显然这些公司的现金流

1438
00:46:17,039 --> 00:46:17,420
你知道的

1439
00:46:17,420 --> 00:46:19,179
亚马逊、Meta的自由现金流

1440
00:46:19,179 --> 00:46:21,420
这些公司会飙升

1441
00:46:21,420 --> 00:46:22,960
因为我减少了支出

1442
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:26,840
因此这些股票可能才是投资标的

1443
00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:28,760
因为人们不愿购买的主要原因

1444
00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:28,920
比如

1445
00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:32,139
为什么Meta的股价现在卡在500到600美元之间

1446
00:46:32,139 --> 00:46:35,409
为什么今天Meta的股价能达到一千甚至两千

1447
00:46:35,409 --> 00:46:37,349
原因在于他们花销太大

1448
00:46:37,349 --> 00:46:38,369
大家纷纷表示

1449
00:46:38,369 --> 00:46:41,269
你们把每一分钱收入都立刻花出去

1450
00:46:41,269 --> 00:46:44,130
我们甚至不清楚这投入能带来什么

1451
00:46:44,130 --> 00:46:44,730
或者这是否有效

1452
00:46:44,730 --> 00:46:46,440
甚至无法获得良好的投资回报

1453
00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:48,559
因此没有人想买入Meta

1454
00:46:48,559 --> 00:46:51,239
尽管他们实现了3%的营收增长

1455
00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:53,199
这对一家公司来说简直荒谬

1456
00:46:53,199 --> 00:46:53,880
考虑到他们的规模

1457
00:46:53,880 --> 00:46:54,699
仍然有人表示

1458
00:46:54,699 --> 00:46:56,840
他们花销远超合理水平

1459
00:46:56,840 --> 00:46:57,340
没错

1460
00:46:57,340 --> 00:46:58,980
所以Meta也打算说

1461
00:46:58,980 --> 00:47:04,110
我们将把支出减半，股价可能一夜涨到一千

1462
00:47:04,110 --> 00:47:06,909
一千会很尴尬

1463
00:47:06,909 --> 00:47:07,989
因为之后他们得解释

1464
00:47:07,989 --> 00:47:08,510
哦比如

1465
00:47:08,510 --> 00:47:09,750
为什么你们大幅削减开支

1466
00:47:09,750 --> 00:47:10,929
这会很尴尬

1467
00:47:10,929 --> 00:47:13,920
但一千的话

1468
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:15,599
但显然这对

1469
00:47:15,599 --> 00:47:17,119
D方不利

1470
00:47:17,119 --> 00:47:19,630
因为Meta要花一百三

1471
00:47:19,630 --> 00:47:21,309
五亿美元或今年的支出

1472
00:47:21,309 --> 00:47:22,909
我们看看最终数据如何

1473
00:47:22,909 --> 00:47:25,269
猜猜这些钱都流向哪里

1474
00:47:25,269 --> 00:47:26,909
AMD的口袋

1475
00:47:26,909 --> 00:47:28,469
NVIDIA的口袋对吧

1476
00:47:29,469 --> 00:47:31,230
你们会是主要受益者

1477
00:47:31,230 --> 00:47:33,530
我肯定要记住这一点

1478
00:47:33,530 --> 00:47:33,849
好的

1479
00:47:33,849 --> 00:47:35,550
希望大家喜欢今天的精彩视频

1480
00:47:35,550 --> 00:47:37,869
四十七分钟再次在我的私密群组

1481
00:47:37,869 --> 00:47:39,250
那将是下方置顶的评论

1482
00:47:39,250 --> 00:47:40,329
现在需求非常旺盛

1483
00:47:40,329 --> 00:47:41,789
我一定会处理你们的申请

1484
00:47:41,789 --> 00:47:44,230
我会尽快回复大家

1485
00:47:44,230 --> 00:47:48,409
一旦加入我们，我们会将钢制会员卡寄到你家

1486
00:47:48,409 --> 00:47:50,099
衷心祝福大家，祝您度过美好一天

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