BV1pq9fB6E6P · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:00,540 大家好 2 00:00:00,540 --> 00:00:02,399 今天我们要来硬核拆解一份 3 00:00:02,399 --> 00:00:04,710 野农市证券刚刚发布的重磅研报 4 00:00:04,710 --> 00:00:06,070 主角大家都不陌生 5 00:00:06,070 --> 00:00:06,990 先导智能 6 00:00:06,990 --> 00:00:07,750 说实话 7 00:00:07,750 --> 00:00:09,369 一季度的财报刚出来时 8 00:00:09,369 --> 00:00:11,650 市场上确实有些杂音和疑虑 9 00:00:11,650 --> 00:00:15,130 但今天我们不仅要帮大家拨开这些短期的迷雾 10 00:00:15,130 --> 00:00:18,510 更要透过一系列数据带大家直击这家公司背后 11 00:00:18,510 --> 00:00:20,890 那个堪称庞大的未来增长蓝图 12 00:00:20,890 --> 00:00:21,769 准备好了吗 13 00:00:21,769 --> 00:00:25,269 咱们直接开始简单过一下今天的路线图 14 00:00:25,269 --> 00:00:28,320 首先是野村大胆的看涨评级 15 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:30,420 接着拆解一季度财报 16 00:00:30,420 --> 00:00:33,039 然后聊聊汇率波动的短暂影响 17 00:00:33,039 --> 00:00:36,378 再带大家看看他们最近激增的巨额订单 18 00:00:36,378 --> 00:00:38,679 最后也就是最激动人心的 19 00:00:38,679 --> 00:00:40,899 下一代电池技术的全面爆发 20 00:00:40,899 --> 00:00:42,429 咱们一步步来 21 00:00:42,429 --> 00:00:44,929 第一部分野村的看涨评级 22 00:00:44,929 --> 00:00:46,590 这绝不是小打小闹 23 00:00:46,590 --> 00:00:49,259 咱们直接看最核心的估值预测 24 00:00:49,259 --> 00:00:53,259 各位请看屏幕上这个极其醒目的数字 25 00:00:53,259 --> 00:00:54,789 73块钱 26 00:00:54,789 --> 00:00:56,829 这是野农给出的目标价 27 00:00:56,829 --> 00:00:58,890 你可能会想这有什么稀奇 28 00:00:58,890 --> 00:00:59,909 但你要知道 29 00:00:59,909 --> 00:01:02,079 就在这份报告发布的前一天 30 00:01:02,079 --> 00:01:05,769 先导智能的收盘价才刚刚55块出头 31 00:01:05,769 --> 00:01:08,010 你把这两个数字放在一起对比一下 32 00:01:08,010 --> 00:01:11,750 这中间可是蕴藏着非常惊人的上行空间呐 33 00:01:11,750 --> 00:01:15,439 而且这绝对不是分析师一拍脑门瞎给的数字 34 00:01:15,439 --> 00:01:18,579 结合这张历史走势和预测的对比图 35 00:01:18,579 --> 00:01:20,920 未来的上行轨迹就很清晰了 36 00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:24,010 野奴雷莱给出73元的底气在哪呢 37 00:01:24,010 --> 00:01:26,769 其实他们是基于2026年预期收益 38 00:01:26,769 --> 00:01:29,030 给出了45倍的市盈率估值 39 00:01:29,030 --> 00:01:30,469 为了让大家有个概念 40 00:01:30,469 --> 00:01:32,750 这就相当于比他历史前瞻市盈率 41 00:01:32,750 --> 00:01:34,539 高出了0.3个标准差 42 00:01:34,539 --> 00:01:36,138 而他目前的交易价格呢 43 00:01:36,138 --> 00:01:38,759 仅仅是2026年预期收益的34倍 44 00:01:38,759 --> 00:01:39,819 这说明什么 45 00:01:39,819 --> 00:01:42,390 说明演奴非常笃定他的未来表现 46 00:01:42,390 --> 00:01:43,530 那么问题来了 47 00:01:43,530 --> 00:01:46,030 这份底气究竟从何而来 48 00:01:46,030 --> 00:01:48,530 这就引出了我们的第二部分 49 00:01:48,530 --> 00:01:50,379 拆解一季度财报 50 00:01:50,379 --> 00:01:52,780 咱们一起来当一回财务侦探 51 00:01:52,780 --> 00:01:55,579 把真实的业务胜利和暂时的财务拖累 52 00:01:55,579 --> 00:01:57,049 分得清清楚楚 53 00:01:57,049 --> 00:01:59,189 核心都在这组数据里了 54 00:01:59,189 --> 00:01:59,989 说实话 55 00:01:59,989 --> 00:02:02,159 这是一份喜忧参半的成绩单 56 00:02:02,159 --> 00:02:03,120 好消息是 57 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:05,760 靠着极其坚挺的电池设备订单交付 58 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:08,039 营收冲到了36.9亿元 59 00:02:08,039 --> 00:02:10,189 拿下了19帕的扎实增长 60 00:02:10,189 --> 00:02:11,629 净利润4.05亿 61 00:02:11,629 --> 00:02:12,810 也涨了11趴 62 00:02:12,810 --> 00:02:15,090 但是眼睛的朋友肯定注意到了 63 00:02:15,090 --> 00:02:17,930 最后这一行毛利率33.6帕 64 00:02:17,930 --> 00:02:20,639 同比掉头向下了0.9个百分点 65 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:23,400 这难道是公司基本面出大问题了吗 66 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:24,199 别急 67 00:02:24,199 --> 00:02:27,759 我们深挖一下这张野村内业绩审查表 68 00:02:27,759 --> 00:02:30,439 确实你看毛利率这一项 69 00:02:30,439 --> 00:02:32,800 环比下降了1.3个百分点 70 00:02:32,800 --> 00:02:35,000 但各位完全不需要恐慌 71 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:37,590 这绝对不是什么系统性的崩盘 72 00:02:37,590 --> 00:02:40,870 管理层在电话会上解释的非常清楚了 73 00:02:40,870 --> 00:02:42,509 这主要怪一季度 74 00:02:42,509 --> 00:02:45,729 集中确认了一批低毛利的太阳能设备订单 75 00:02:45,729 --> 00:02:48,849 所以你看这纯粹是产品交付结构带来的 76 00:02:48,849 --> 00:02:49,629 正常起伏 77 00:02:49,629 --> 00:02:52,189 跟核心竞争力的下滑根本不沾边儿 78 00:02:52,189 --> 00:02:53,750 接下来是第三部分 79 00:02:53,750 --> 00:02:56,870 我们要帮大家过滤掉财报里的另一个噪音 80 00:02:56,870 --> 00:02:59,159 汇率这个小插曲 81 00:02:59,159 --> 00:03:01,620 研报里特意提到了一个词儿 82 00:03:01,620 --> 00:03:03,389 一次性汇兑损失 83 00:03:03,389 --> 00:03:04,590 说白了就是什么呢 84 00:03:04,590 --> 00:03:07,889 就是公司在处理H股上市结算资金的时候 85 00:03:07,889 --> 00:03:09,889 碰上了汇率的客观波动 86 00:03:09,889 --> 00:03:12,050 吃了点账面上的哑巴亏 87 00:03:12,050 --> 00:03:13,650 就因为这个一季度 88 00:03:13,650 --> 00:03:17,000 多出了高达8600万元的净财务成本 89 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:19,740 这感觉就好比是一辆全速前进的高铁 90 00:03:19,740 --> 00:03:21,960 刚好压过了一段临时减速带 91 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:22,939 颠了一下 92 00:03:22,939 --> 00:03:24,159 它是一次性的 93 00:03:24,159 --> 00:03:26,520 完全不影响列车本身的动力系统 94 00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:27,639 想通了这一点 95 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:30,259 大家的投资焦虑是不是就少多了 96 00:03:30,259 --> 00:03:32,219 前面都是排雷 97 00:03:32,219 --> 00:03:34,960 第四部分才是真正的重头戏 98 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:36,539 激增的新订单 99 00:03:36,539 --> 00:03:40,340 这是公司迈向强劲增长的绝对转折点 100 00:03:40,340 --> 00:03:44,088 各位请看这根不可思议的柱状图 101 00:03:44,088 --> 00:03:45,808 仅仅在一个季度内 102 00:03:45,808 --> 00:03:48,628 新订单预订量就迎来了大爆发 103 00:03:48,628 --> 00:03:51,688 直接飙升到了约96亿元人民币 104 00:03:51,688 --> 00:03:52,840 这是什么概念 105 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:55,219 同比增幅超过了60percent的啊 106 00:03:55,219 --> 00:03:59,469 在短短三个月里能狂揽近百亿的订单储备 107 00:03:59,469 --> 00:04:01,969 这就叫绝对的行业统治力 108 00:04:01,969 --> 00:04:05,639 这就是客户拿真金白银投出的信任票 109 00:04:05,639 --> 00:04:07,939 而且好戏还在后头 110 00:04:07,939 --> 00:04:10,419 除了这实打实的96亿 111 00:04:10,419 --> 00:04:15,039 他们手里还攥着超过40亿的初步意向合同 112 00:04:15,039 --> 00:04:17,319 有了这么充足的弹药库 113 00:04:17,319 --> 00:04:19,160 管理层底气十足的 114 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:20,560 把2026财年 115 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:23,769 新合同增长指引定在了30% 116 00:04:23,769 --> 00:04:25,050 最关键的是 117 00:04:25,050 --> 00:04:27,620 设备交付通常有滞后性 118 00:04:27,620 --> 00:04:28,779 管理层预计 119 00:04:28,779 --> 00:04:30,819 从2026年第二季度开始 120 00:04:30,819 --> 00:04:33,800 随着那些高毛利的优质订单开始兑现 121 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:36,139 不仅收入增长会挂上高档 122 00:04:36,139 --> 00:04:36,819 利润率 123 00:04:36,819 --> 00:04:39,279 也会迎来一波漂亮的触底反弹 124 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:43,920 最后第五部分也是支撑他估值跃升的核心动力 125 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:46,610 下一代电池技术的全面爆发 126 00:04:46,610 --> 00:04:49,980 咱们来看看这个极具未来感的时间表 127 00:04:49,980 --> 00:04:52,019 先导智能可没闲着 128 00:04:52,019 --> 00:04:55,149 他们在钠离子电池设备上正在狂奔 129 00:04:55,149 --> 00:04:58,230 预计2026年下半年就能推向主要客户 130 00:04:58,230 --> 00:04:59,279 实现商业化 131 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:01,779 还有大家天天盼着的全固态电池 132 00:05:01,779 --> 00:05:02,439 野奴A 133 00:05:02,439 --> 00:05:05,199 预计相关的设备需求在先导这里会直接翻倍 134 00:05:05,199 --> 00:05:06,990 飙到大约20亿元的规模 135 00:05:06,990 --> 00:05:07,850 更牛的是 136 00:05:07,850 --> 00:05:08,730 就在一季度 137 00:05:08,730 --> 00:05:11,029 他们已经悄悄拿下了一家韩国电池 138 00:05:11,029 --> 00:05:12,430 电芯制造商的新订单 139 00:05:12,430 --> 00:05:15,540 这说明在全球新兴电池技术的牌桌上 140 00:05:15,540 --> 00:05:16,920 他们不仅早早占了座 141 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:18,779 而且已经开始赢筹码了 142 00:05:18,779 --> 00:05:21,480 没有对比就没有伤害啊 143 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:24,300 来看看全固态电池设备的增速 144 00:05:24,300 --> 00:05:27,879 预期行业平均增速大概在70~80 145 00:05:27,879 --> 00:05:28,480 说实话 146 00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:30,839 这已经是一个非常火爆的赛道了 147 00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:34,720 但你看看先导智能预计增速高达约180 148 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:37,288 帕森规模直接翻倍到20亿 149 00:05:37,288 --> 00:05:40,548 这种把行业平均水平甩在身后的八旗曲线 150 00:05:40,548 --> 00:05:43,048 简直就是把它在新兴前沿领域 151 00:05:43,048 --> 00:05:46,019 压倒性的技术优势写在了明面上 152 00:05:46,019 --> 00:05:48,759 当然拿下几个大客户只是一方面 153 00:05:48,759 --> 00:05:51,290 更宏大的背景在于大周期 154 00:05:51,290 --> 00:05:53,689 以蒙在这份报告里明确预测 155 00:05:53,689 --> 00:05:54,769 在宁德时代 156 00:05:54,769 --> 00:05:58,709 亿伟锂能这些国内电池巨头疯狂扩产的带动下 157 00:05:58,709 --> 00:06:00,389 26~27财年 158 00:06:00,389 --> 00:06:03,649 必将迎来一波巨大的电池资本支出狂潮 159 00:06:03,649 --> 00:06:07,399 而先导智能作为行业设备供应商里的绝对龙头 160 00:06:07,399 --> 00:06:09,959 就好比是在淘金热中卖铲子的人 161 00:06:09,959 --> 00:06:13,829 无疑会成为这场扩张巨浪中最大的受益者 162 00:06:13,829 --> 00:06:17,389 好了今天的图文解析到这里就接近尾声了 163 00:06:17,389 --> 00:06:20,529 我们一起系统地梳理了先导智能的短期阵痛 164 00:06:20,529 --> 00:06:22,350 和未来的宏大蓝图 165 00:06:22,350 --> 00:06:25,408 在最后我想留一个问题给大家思考 166 00:06:25,408 --> 00:06:28,329 当全固态电池的红利即将翻倍兑现 167 00:06:28,329 --> 00:06:31,649 当一季度已经有近百亿巨额订单落袋为安 168 00:06:31,649 --> 00:06:34,990 现在的市场是不是仅仅因为财报里一点点 169 00:06:34,990 --> 00:06:37,149 暂时的汇率和利润率小噪音 170 00:06:37,149 --> 00:06:40,279 而严重低估了这只雄狮未来的统治力呢 171 00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:43,300 真相往往藏在这些冰冷的数据背后 172 00:06:43,300 --> 00:06:45,720 希望今天的拆解能给你的投资视角 173 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:47,060 带来全新的启发 174 00:06:47,060 --> 00:06:47,980 感谢收看 175 00:06:47,980 --> 00:06:49,459 咱们下期再见
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