BV1peZSBxEVz · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:00,260 嘿 2 00:00:00,260 --> 00:00:02,299 大家好，欢迎回到今天的又一个视频 3 00:00:02,299 --> 00:00:03,680 所以每三个月 4 00:00:03,680 --> 00:00:08,460 我们有机会看看这些超级投资者最近在做什么 5 00:00:08,460 --> 00:00:13,298 这些数字和截图在到处流传 6 00:00:13,298 --> 00:00:18,550 其实他们并没有买入你今天屏幕上看到的这些公司 7 00:00:18,550 --> 00:00:20,969 或者昨天、上周 8 00:00:20,969 --> 00:00:24,929 这些都是他们上个季度的操作 9 00:00:24,929 --> 00:00:28,230 最后一个季度非常重要要注意 10 00:00:28,230 --> 00:00:29,170 所以是的 11 00:00:29,170 --> 00:00:30,789 你可能会看到一些头条新闻 12 00:00:30,789 --> 00:00:33,710 沃伦·巴菲特刚刚买入这只股票 13 00:00:33,710 --> 00:00:35,689 丹尼尔·洛布刚刚买入那只股票 14 00:00:35,689 --> 00:00:38,030 或者可能抛售了那只股票 15 00:00:38,030 --> 00:00:40,070 他们并不是现在才买入的 16 00:00:40,070 --> 00:00:43,378 所以我已经为这个视频的标题道歉了 17 00:00:43,378 --> 00:00:47,719 但你必须制作适合YouTube的标题 18 00:00:47,719 --> 00:00:52,149 不幸的是这对我们了解他们的操作很有趣 19 00:00:52,149 --> 00:00:52,890 是的 20 00:00:52,890 --> 00:00:56,929 或许看看大资金流向也很有趣 21 00:00:56,929 --> 00:00:59,719 但老实说其实无关紧要 22 00:00:59,719 --> 00:01:03,100 这纯粹是为了信息分享 23 00:01:03,100 --> 00:01:04,099 以及类似内容 24 00:01:04,099 --> 00:01:10,230 我们还会讨论Netflix、Paramount、华纳兄弟的情况 25 00:01:10,230 --> 00:01:11,500 猜猜看 26 00:01:11,500 --> 00:01:14,680 这个故事还有另一面 27 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:15,939 所以我们来谈谈 28 00:01:15,939 --> 00:01:18,340 在分析一些热门 29 00:01:18,340 --> 00:01:18,879 呃 30 00:01:18,879 --> 00:01:19,840 超级投资者 31 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:23,099 幸好我们不用再提迈克尔·贝里了 32 00:01:23,099 --> 00:01:24,459 如果你喜欢这类视频 33 00:01:24,459 --> 00:01:25,459 你就知道该怎么做 34 00:01:25,459 --> 00:01:26,420 他按下了按钮 35 00:01:26,420 --> 00:01:28,719 我们非常感谢你进一步支持我 36 00:01:28,719 --> 00:01:30,500 请查看描述下方的链接 37 00:01:30,500 --> 00:01:33,200 在评论区留下现在最佳十股推荐 38 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:35,739 或前往full.com访问/gosh investor 39 00:01:35,739 --> 00:01:37,689 这已经很棒了 40 00:01:37,689 --> 00:01:38,629 第一名 41 00:01:38,629 --> 00:01:40,310 我们首先来看 42 00:01:40,310 --> 00:01:42,069 当然最大的那个 43 00:01:42,069 --> 00:01:44,599 那就是伯克希尔·哈撒韦 44 00:01:44,599 --> 00:01:48,760 可以看到苹果仍稳居投资组合首位 45 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:51,090 但现在非常接近第二位 46 00:01:51,090 --> 00:01:53,469 美国运通位列第二 47 00:01:53,469 --> 00:01:56,750 苹果和MX合计占投资组合42% 48 00:01:56,750 --> 00:02:00,469 实际上占43% 49 00:02:00,469 --> 00:02:02,290 这里我们还能看到什么 50 00:02:02,290 --> 00:02:03,909 他还增持了雪佛龙 51 00:02:03,909 --> 00:02:04,269 他 52 00:02:04,269 --> 00:02:07,569 他们增持了雪佛龙6.6%的股份 53 00:02:07,569 --> 00:02:09,789 增长9.3% 54 00:02:09,789 --> 00:02:10,650 记住雪佛龙 55 00:02:10,650 --> 00:02:11,610 那是哪个位置 56 00:02:11,610 --> 00:02:16,740 两年前左右他们被允许购买时的情况 57 00:02:16,740 --> 00:02:18,860 没有告诉我 58 00:02:18,860 --> 00:02:22,520 我永远不明白为什么允许这样做 59 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:23,509 不过嘿 60 00:02:23,509 --> 00:02:24,110 好吧 61 00:02:24,110 --> 00:02:24,449 或许吧 62 00:02:24,449 --> 00:02:25,849 当你成为沃伦·巴菲特 63 00:02:25,849 --> 00:02:28,069 有些规则不适用于你 64 00:02:28,069 --> 00:02:30,370 他们减持了康斯托克品牌 65 00:02:30,370 --> 00:02:34,050 增持多米诺披萨12.3% 66 00:02:34,050 --> 00:02:35,030 个百分点 67 00:02:35,030 --> 00:02:36,800 是的 68 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:37,419 是的 69 00:02:37,419 --> 00:02:37,979 确实如此 70 00:02:37,979 --> 00:02:39,379 减少70 71 00:02:39,379 --> 00:02:40,060 7.2% 72 00:02:40,060 --> 00:02:42,280 减持亚马逊2.2% 73 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:44,120 这说得通吗 74 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:44,699 不 75 00:02:44,699 --> 00:02:46,400 增持多米诺披萨 76 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:47,639 减持亚马逊 77 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:48,680 但话说回来 78 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:49,319 这 79 00:02:49,319 --> 00:02:51,240 这是典型的伯克希尔 80 00:02:51,240 --> 00:02:51,740 哈撒韦操作 81 00:02:51,740 --> 00:02:52,680 你只是不碰科技股 82 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:55,110 除非是苹果 83 00:02:55,110 --> 00:02:56,389 尽管他们过去两年一直在减持苹果 84 00:02:56,389 --> 00:02:59,830 幅度相当大 85 00:02:59,830 --> 00:03:00,650 所以好吧 86 00:03:00,650 --> 00:03:01,909 行了新公司加入投资组合 87 00:03:01,909 --> 00:03:05,650 仅占0.1% 88 00:03:05,650 --> 00:03:07,030 新加入的投资组合0.3% 89 00:03:07,030 --> 00:03:10,860 《纽约时报》占投资组合3% 90 00:03:10,860 --> 00:03:14,319 我觉得厕纸比这更有价值 91 00:03:14,319 --> 00:03:15,300 但再说 92 00:03:15,300 --> 00:03:17,120 我做不了决定 93 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:19,919 这就是现状所以基本上 94 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:24,209 这就是Q4季度的结果 95 00:03:24,209 --> 00:03:25,468 一些减持 96 00:03:25,468 --> 00:03:28,229 投资组合中微小仓位 97 00:03:28,229 --> 00:03:33,159 美国银行是最大减持方涉及苹果 98 00:03:33,159 --> 00:03:34,639 然后我们看到 99 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:36,900 一些增持是的 100 00:03:36,900 --> 00:03:43,080 我认为这是典型的伯克希尔·哈撒韦操作 101 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:47,659 深受沃伦·巴菲特启发的投资组合来自聋人卡内萨里亚 102 00:03:47,659 --> 00:03:50,930 这是瓦尔福德资本管理公司 103 00:03:50,930 --> 00:03:51,409 是的 104 00:03:51,409 --> 00:03:54,250 他确实做出了一些调整，但不多 105 00:03:54,250 --> 00:03:57,090 但有些调整我们马上会看到 106 00:03:57,090 --> 00:03:57,449 顺便说一句 107 00:03:57,449 --> 00:04:01,789 这是一个长期几乎看不到太多交易活动的投资组合 108 00:04:01,789 --> 00:04:02,930 但在第四季度 109 00:04:02,930 --> 00:04:07,800 我想他在第四季度发现了极具吸引力的低价股票 110 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:10,419 如果你现在看这些股票名称 111 00:04:10,419 --> 00:04:11,319 是的 112 00:04:11,319 --> 00:04:14,579 这些名称如今更具吸引力 113 00:04:14,579 --> 00:04:18,218 因此他将Intuit减持了15% 114 00:04:18,218 --> 00:04:19,560 2% 115 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:23,079 他小幅增持了FICO和万事达卡 116 00:04:23,079 --> 00:04:29,408 标普全球、穆迪、Visa增持接近0.5% 同样L增持 117 00:04:29,408 --> 00:04:30,069 1% 118 00:04:30,069 --> 00:04:34,139 Equifax增持60%，1.7% 119 00:04:34,139 --> 00:04:36,819 MSCI增持9% 120 00:04:36,819 --> 00:04:37,839 如你所知 121 00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:40,158 从年初以来 122 00:04:40,158 --> 00:04:42,500 所有这些股票都遭受了重创 123 00:04:42,500 --> 00:04:43,139 S&P 124 00:04:43,139 --> 00:04:45,040 全球、FICO、穆迪 125 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:45,620 更近期 126 00:04:45,620 --> 00:04:46,939 它们大幅下跌 127 00:04:46,939 --> 00:04:50,360 其中一些股票甚至下跌了20%左右 128 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:52,660 如果我们看持仓分配 129 00:04:52,660 --> 00:04:54,779 该投资组合的排名情况 130 00:04:54,779 --> 00:04:56,139 你可以在这里看到 131 00:04:56,139 --> 00:04:58,970 股价大幅下跌 132 00:04:58,970 --> 00:05:03,250 三个月后我们将看到他是否增持 133 00:05:03,250 --> 00:05:06,139 或是否减少持仓 134 00:05:06,139 --> 00:05:08,040 第一是FICO 135 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:10,220 占组合近30% 136 00:05:10,220 --> 00:05:11,699 第二是标普全球 137 00:05:11,699 --> 00:05:12,360 20% 138 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:13,939 占组合28% 139 00:05:13,939 --> 00:05:15,439 接着是万事达卡 140 00:05:15,439 --> 00:05:18,480 穆迪、Visa、Intuit在此减持 141 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:19,040 15% 142 00:05:19,040 --> 00:05:20,800 2%仍占3.3% 143 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:22,870 占组合2% 144 00:05:22,870 --> 00:05:24,730 ML也占3% 145 00:05:24,730 --> 00:05:30,269 而MSCI和Equifax持仓不足1% 146 00:05:30,269 --> 00:05:31,990 有些人看到这个组合 147 00:05:31,990 --> 00:05:35,889 可能很长时间都无法直视 148 00:05:35,889 --> 00:05:36,350 因为确实 149 00:05:36,350 --> 00:05:38,800 这些是乏味的公司 150 00:05:39,569 --> 00:05:42,769 但盈利能力很强的乏味公司 151 00:05:42,769 --> 00:05:45,069 超高利润率 152 00:05:45,069 --> 00:05:46,189 作为平凡生命 153 00:05:46,189 --> 00:05:47,959 所谓这些公司中的部分 154 00:05:47,959 --> 00:05:51,220 像黑手党般转向帕特多西 155 00:05:51,220 --> 00:05:52,560 投资组合中的十只股票 156 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:54,620 投资组合价值刚过一点 157 00:05:54,620 --> 00:05:56,920 十五亿美元 158 00:05:56,920 --> 00:05:59,959 投资组合首位是ASML 159 00:05:59,959 --> 00:06:01,300 然后是丹纳赫公司 160 00:06:01,300 --> 00:06:02,100 艾克森美孚 161 00:06:02,100 --> 00:06:04,110 Meta平台预订额 162 00:06:04,110 --> 00:06:04,629 特许权使用费 163 00:06:04,629 --> 00:06:06,470 制药业及新持仓 164 00:06:06,470 --> 00:06:07,769 即Live Nation 165 00:06:07,769 --> 00:06:08,990 这家娱乐公司 166 00:06:08,990 --> 00:06:10,310 现在是Autozone 167 00:06:10,310 --> 00:06:12,560 Alphabet和新手 168 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:14,800 这里大幅减仓 169 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:16,199 大幅减仓 170 00:06:16,199 --> 00:06:16,680 但另一方面 171 00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:18,509 如你所见在Q3 172 00:06:18,509 --> 00:06:20,230 他已经开始减仓 173 00:06:20,230 --> 00:06:23,209 Q3完全清仓几周持仓 174 00:06:23,209 --> 00:06:26,139 Q3完全清仓部分持仓 175 00:06:26,139 --> 00:06:27,740 嗯 176 00:06:27,740 --> 00:06:28,920 这很有趣 177 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:32,089 因为Adobe收购Samrush 178 00:06:32,089 --> 00:06:34,870 如果他稍等片刻 179 00:06:34,870 --> 00:06:38,829 投资收益将超50% 180 00:06:38,829 --> 00:06:39,819 好吧 181 00:06:39,819 --> 00:06:40,839 在Q4 182 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:42,480 可见大幅减仓 183 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:45,259 基本砍掉谷歌持仓一半 184 00:06:45,259 --> 00:06:48,019 这里减仓49.4% 185 00:06:48,019 --> 00:06:50,519 Meta减16.8% 186 00:06:50,519 --> 00:06:53,600 5%清晰转向 187 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:55,850 我认为是远离这些科技公司 188 00:06:55,850 --> 00:06:58,019 尽管我仍不理解 189 00:06:58,019 --> 00:06:59,220 这就是现状 190 00:06:59,220 --> 00:07:00,259 这是他的投资组合 191 00:07:00,259 --> 00:07:02,360 这不是我的投资组合 192 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:03,620 持续减仓 193 00:07:03,620 --> 00:07:06,488 新持仓是Live Nation 194 00:07:06,488 --> 00:07:09,829 使ASML上涨11% 195 00:07:09,829 --> 00:07:10,548 正如你所见 196 00:07:10,548 --> 00:07:15,139 ASML是他的持仓之一 197 00:07:15,139 --> 00:07:16,319 一方面 198 00:07:16,319 --> 00:07:18,300 我想他转向ML 199 00:07:18,300 --> 00:07:19,420 因为毕竟 200 00:07:19,420 --> 00:07:20,408 Cap X方面 201 00:07:20,408 --> 00:07:21,608 这对这家公司有好处 202 00:07:21,608 --> 00:07:23,319 这对台积电有好处 203 00:07:23,319 --> 00:07:25,800 也许他不喜欢资本支出增加 204 00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:27,639 也许它并不喜欢这种风险 205 00:07:27,639 --> 00:07:28,639 投资回报率 206 00:07:28,639 --> 00:07:30,639 Meta和Alphabet的风险 207 00:07:30,639 --> 00:07:33,740 这就是他减持这些仓位的原因 208 00:07:33,740 --> 00:07:35,319 接下来我们看看 209 00:07:35,319 --> 00:07:36,600 这是你的霍华德·马克斯 210 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:37,879 奥格斯资本管理公司 211 00:07:37,879 --> 00:07:40,540 但现在已经不是霍华德·马克斯了 212 00:07:40,540 --> 00:07:45,250 我相信奥克树已出售给布鲁克菲尔德 213 00:07:45,250 --> 00:07:47,610 总之我记不太清楚了 214 00:07:47,610 --> 00:07:49,670 这里共有五个三只持仓 215 00:07:49,670 --> 00:07:51,230 所以这基本是一个ETF 216 00:07:51,230 --> 00:07:52,209 四点五 217 00:07:52,209 --> 00:07:54,949 市值三亿美元 218 00:07:54,949 --> 00:07:56,680 这里有很多公司 219 00:07:56,680 --> 00:07:57,740 有很多变动 220 00:07:57,740 --> 00:07:59,040 我就不一一详述了 221 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:05,300 只需观察活动并查看新开仓位 222 00:08:05,300 --> 00:08:10,160 新持仓在Grupo AeroMéxico和Rice Acquisition 223 00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:15,939 新持仓在Phosis Unity Group和另一家Rice Acquisition 224 00:08:15,939 --> 00:08:16,720 好的 225 00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:18,139 这很有趣 226 00:08:18,139 --> 00:08:21,860 查看完全清仓的持仓 227 00:08:21,860 --> 00:08:23,959 Echo Star已完全退出 228 00:08:23,959 --> 00:08:26,600 C Limited现已完全清仓 229 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:27,339 行业 230 00:08:27,339 --> 00:08:27,959 JB 231 00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:31,930 有些公司我确实没听说过 232 00:08:31,930 --> 00:08:32,649 这些公司中 233 00:08:32,649 --> 00:08:36,048 当然这是一个高度分散的组合 234 00:08:36,048 --> 00:08:37,448 不仅限于欧洲 235 00:08:37,448 --> 00:08:38,948 不仅限于北美 236 00:08:38,948 --> 00:08:43,659 组合中还包括许多南美公司 237 00:08:43,659 --> 00:08:46,759 如果我们查看行业分布 238 00:08:46,759 --> 00:08:48,019 你可以在这里看到 239 00:08:48,019 --> 00:08:50,840 能源行业占比18.7% 240 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:51,679 接下来是原材料行业 241 00:08:51,679 --> 00:08:52,500 金融业 242 00:08:52,500 --> 00:08:53,460 工业 243 00:08:53,460 --> 00:08:54,600 消费品 244 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:58,059 科技行业仅占7.7% 245 00:08:58,059 --> 00:08:59,159 对于那些好奇的 246 00:08:59,159 --> 00:09:00,259 Grab仍然在持仓中 247 00:09:00,259 --> 00:09:01,059 一点二 248 00:09:01,059 --> 00:09:02,379 占组合3%的份额 249 00:09:02,379 --> 00:09:05,139 但他减少了7.3% 250 00:09:05,139 --> 00:09:06,389 占组合3% 251 00:09:06,389 --> 00:09:08,330 同样的情况也有小幅调整 252 00:09:08,330 --> 00:09:10,470 但这里仍保持一点六 253 00:09:10,470 --> 00:09:11,639 五个百分点 254 00:09:11,639 --> 00:09:14,419 诺基亚的实际表现相当不错 255 00:09:14,419 --> 00:09:16,840 考虑到其余的二点六 256 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:21,919 投资组合新增七个百分点，接下来是弗朗索瓦·伦 257 00:09:21,919 --> 00:09:24,759 这是一个包含五十只股票的ETF型投资组合 258 00:09:24,759 --> 00:09:27,179 市值接近三亿美元 259 00:09:27,179 --> 00:09:28,828 这里的第一持仓 260 00:09:28,828 --> 00:09:30,168 八点四 261 00:09:30,168 --> 00:09:34,210 八个百分点是伯克希尔哈撒韦小幅减持 262 00:09:34,210 --> 00:09:35,009 但总体还好 263 00:09:35,009 --> 00:09:41,490 你可以清楚看到他们大幅增持了多数持仓 264 00:09:41,490 --> 00:09:43,490 他们新开立了两个新仓位 265 00:09:43,490 --> 00:09:45,269 一个是Bright Horizon 266 00:09:45,269 --> 00:09:47,649 最终解决方案，占比一点 267 00:09:47,649 --> 00:09:48,909 三点九个百分点 268 00:09:48,909 --> 00:09:50,970 然后是直觉外科公司 269 00:09:50,970 --> 00:09:56,399 我不明白为何接近三亿美元的投资组合 270 00:09:56,720 --> 00:10:01,019 需要新开一个占比零点 271 00:10:01,019 --> 00:10:02,849 零一百分比的仓位 272 00:10:02,849 --> 00:10:04,469 四百零五 273 00:10:04,469 --> 00:10:06,688 这就是四百零五股 274 00:10:06,688 --> 00:10:09,870 我老实说真的不明白 275 00:10:09,870 --> 00:10:13,730 我也搞不懂这些操作 276 00:10:13,730 --> 00:10:17,188 Capital One金融减持一股 277 00:10:18,948 --> 00:10:20,869 这是怎么回事 278 00:10:20,869 --> 00:10:23,370 减持三十股 279 00:10:23,730 --> 00:10:25,690 我实在不明白这是怎么回事 280 00:10:25,690 --> 00:10:28,789 他完全清仓了Five Serve Carmax 281 00:10:28,789 --> 00:10:31,669 Align Technology和Credit Acceptance 282 00:10:31,669 --> 00:10:35,299 这真是令人震惊 283 00:10:35,299 --> 00:10:36,860 甚至微软 284 00:10:36,860 --> 00:10:39,139 这里增持一股 285 00:10:39,460 --> 00:10:40,720 这要么是失误 286 00:10:40,720 --> 00:10:41,820 要么是最有趣的事 287 00:10:41,820 --> 00:10:42,759 我见过的最离谱的事 288 00:10:42,759 --> 00:10:44,419 增持一股 289 00:10:45,700 --> 00:10:49,399 为什么这太奇怪了 290 00:10:49,399 --> 00:10:50,740 不过确实 291 00:10:50,740 --> 00:10:54,298 他们大幅增持了许多公司 292 00:10:54,298 --> 00:10:55,839 比如Alphabet 293 00:10:55,839 --> 00:10:57,298 我们看到迪士尼 294 00:10:57,298 --> 00:10:57,839 台湾地区 295 00:10:57,839 --> 00:10:59,039 半导体行业 296 00:10:59,039 --> 00:10:59,860 万事达卡 297 00:10:59,860 --> 00:11:00,639 JPMorgan 298 00:11:00,639 --> 00:11:01,500 Arista Networks 299 00:11:01,500 --> 00:11:04,759 这确实是一个非常庞大的投资组合 300 00:11:04,759 --> 00:11:05,480 正如你所见 301 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:06,659 伯克希尔哈撒韦排名第一 302 00:11:06,659 --> 00:11:11,529 然后是Meta、亚马逊、谷歌、Alphabet和查尔斯·施瓦布 303 00:11:11,529 --> 00:11:15,730 这些都是持仓超过五百分比的资产 304 00:11:15,730 --> 00:11:19,279 美光科技的持仓非常接近五百分比 305 00:11:19,279 --> 00:11:21,179 接下来是大卫·泰珀 306 00:11:21,179 --> 00:11:22,559 还记得大卫·泰珀在 307 00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:24,039 我想是2024年 308 00:11:24,039 --> 00:11:26,559 当时是中国的一切 309 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:29,190 我相信是2024年夏天 310 00:11:29,190 --> 00:11:30,309 如果我没记错的话 311 00:11:30,309 --> 00:11:33,799 所以大卫·泰珀持有38只股票 312 00:11:33,799 --> 00:11:36,820 市值达68亿美元 313 00:11:36,820 --> 00:11:39,649 这里第一名仍是阿里巴巴 314 00:11:39,649 --> 00:11:43,250 尽管该仓位减少了20% 315 00:11:43,250 --> 00:11:44,769 Alphabet现在升至第二 316 00:11:44,769 --> 00:11:46,159 占比8.1% 317 00:11:46,159 --> 00:11:48,659 并增持了28.7% 318 00:11:48,659 --> 00:11:50,460 仓位提升至9% 319 00:11:50,460 --> 00:11:50,840 现在 320 00:11:50,840 --> 00:11:52,679 我们有亚马逊、美光 321 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:54,539 Meta、台积电、英伟达 322 00:11:54,539 --> 00:11:55,539 惠而浦 323 00:11:55,539 --> 00:11:56,340 这些是 324 00:11:56,340 --> 00:11:57,559 可以说这些是大公司 325 00:11:57,559 --> 00:12:00,440 这里还有微软持仓3.5% 326 00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:01,490 3% 327 00:12:01,490 --> 00:12:03,909 他还买入了几家新公司 328 00:12:03,909 --> 00:12:08,210 让我们看看第四季度活动列表 329 00:12:08,210 --> 00:12:09,710 我们将看到两家新公司 330 00:12:09,710 --> 00:12:11,110 一家是Okay 331 00:12:11,110 --> 00:12:14,950 有趣的是MSCI韩国指数 332 00:12:14,950 --> 00:12:16,379 ETF 333 00:12:16,379 --> 00:12:17,980 这是我第一次看到 334 00:12:17,980 --> 00:12:19,080 所以Okay 335 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:20,129 恭喜 336 00:12:20,129 --> 00:12:20,610 我的意思是 337 00:12:20,610 --> 00:12:23,509 我们在周日曾简要讨论过韩国 338 00:12:23,509 --> 00:12:23,889 嗯 339 00:12:23,889 --> 00:12:25,330 投资组合更新 340 00:12:25,330 --> 00:12:29,558 我们提到韩国股市大幅上涨 341 00:12:29,558 --> 00:12:30,538 但仍在持续 342 00:12:30,538 --> 00:12:34,220 因为少数公司表现优异 343 00:12:34,220 --> 00:12:37,159 这与美国的情况相反 344 00:12:37,159 --> 00:12:39,460 是大公司支撑指数 345 00:12:39,460 --> 00:12:40,519 这些公司涨幅不大 346 00:12:40,519 --> 00:12:41,899 甚至有所下跌 347 00:12:41,899 --> 00:12:43,179 但在韩国 348 00:12:43,179 --> 00:12:44,460 是精选公司的表现 349 00:12:44,460 --> 00:12:45,220 半导体企业 350 00:12:45,220 --> 00:12:49,308 内存厂商推动指数上涨 351 00:12:49,308 --> 00:12:53,568 他们收购的另一家公司叫做Ball Corp 352 00:12:53,568 --> 00:12:54,788 我不知道这是什么 353 00:12:54,788 --> 00:12:56,489 但这个名字非常有趣 354 00:12:56,489 --> 00:13:02,110 它是全球领先的创新可持续铝制包装供应商 355 00:13:02,110 --> 00:13:03,029 用于饮料 356 00:13:03,029 --> 00:13:06,649 个人护理和家用产品现在 357 00:13:06,649 --> 00:13:07,460 你知道的 358 00:13:07,460 --> 00:13:08,259 然后 359 00:13:08,259 --> 00:13:09,720 这里我们还看到了什么 360 00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:11,460 他在这里完全清仓了 361 00:13:11,460 --> 00:13:12,799 以及Pi Surf 362 00:13:12,799 --> 00:13:14,529 旅游金融凯撒 363 00:13:14,529 --> 00:13:16,250 娱乐公司 364 00:13:16,250 --> 00:13:17,509 Citizen金融 365 00:13:17,509 --> 00:13:19,179 美国区块 366 00:13:19,179 --> 00:13:21,720 西方联盟和班戈之子 367 00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:24,379 完全清仓了这些仓位 368 00:13:24,379 --> 00:13:25,320 知名公司 369 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:28,679 这里MDA减少了65% 370 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:29,500 百度 371 00:13:29,500 --> 00:13:32,220 减少了近45% 372 00:13:32,220 --> 00:13:35,759 这里中集股份下跌3.5% 373 00:13:35,759 --> 00:13:39,720 同样在京东有大幅调整 374 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:43,700 与中国相关非常有趣 375 00:13:43,700 --> 00:13:45,149 非常有趣 376 00:13:45,149 --> 00:13:47,389 他大幅增持了 377 00:13:47,389 --> 00:13:49,068 但仓位较小 378 00:13:49,068 --> 00:13:49,589 欧文斯 379 00:13:49,589 --> 00:13:50,068 康宁公司 380 00:13:50,068 --> 00:13:51,249 莫霍克工业 381 00:13:51,249 --> 00:13:54,149 Micron科技涨幅达200% 382 00:13:54,149 --> 00:13:59,450 记住这是Q4 Meta平台上涨62% 383 00:13:59,450 --> 00:14:03,519 想象一下增持百万股 384 00:14:03,519 --> 00:14:04,840 你看这里 385 00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:06,330 这很 impressive 386 00:14:06,330 --> 00:14:09,850 不是之前看到的单股增减 387 00:14:09,850 --> 00:14:10,710 另外这里 388 00:14:10,710 --> 00:14:12,049 美国航空集团 389 00:14:12,049 --> 00:14:15,519 增持四万股 390 00:14:15,519 --> 00:14:18,549 九万股 391 00:14:19,309 --> 00:14:21,250 一天一天 392 00:14:21,250 --> 00:14:22,289 谷歌母公司Alphabet 393 00:14:22,289 --> 00:14:24,590 上涨2.89% 394 00:14:24,590 --> 00:14:27,210 微软上涨8.1% 395 00:14:27,210 --> 00:14:29,370 然后其余部分我们已见过 396 00:14:29,370 --> 00:14:30,090 所以相当 397 00:14:30,090 --> 00:14:30,690 呃 398 00:14:30,690 --> 00:14:32,230 相当忙碌的季度 399 00:14:32,230 --> 00:14:33,690 相当充实的季度 400 00:14:33,690 --> 00:14:38,590 在Apeloza管理公司，接下来是David Einhorn来自Greenlight资本 401 00:14:38,590 --> 00:14:41,659 这里共有四十一只股票 402 00:14:41,659 --> 00:14:43,720 我们看到的这些ETF规模相当庞大 403 00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:47,889 抱歉，投资组合规模为28.4亿美元 404 00:14:47,889 --> 00:14:49,429 这里占据首位的位置 405 00:14:49,429 --> 00:14:53,450 远超其他的是绿色砖块伙伴 406 00:14:53,450 --> 00:14:54,450 二十 407 00:14:54,450 --> 00:14:56,809 占投资组合的8% 408 00:14:56,809 --> 00:14:58,570 然后我们看到较少的公司 409 00:14:58,570 --> 00:15:00,210 核心自然资源 410 00:15:00,210 --> 00:15:03,078 很多相当平淡的名字 411 00:15:03,078 --> 00:15:04,178 如果我说的话 412 00:15:04,178 --> 00:15:06,859 他在第四季度买入了很多新公司 413 00:15:06,859 --> 00:15:09,600 他收购了华纳兄弟探索 414 00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:11,779 这是个有趣的举动 415 00:15:11,779 --> 00:15:13,799 我不知道他何时买入的 416 00:15:13,799 --> 00:15:15,129 不过好吧 417 00:15:15,129 --> 00:15:15,950 很有趣 418 00:15:15,950 --> 00:15:16,870 非常有趣 419 00:15:16,870 --> 00:15:20,889 你可以看到投资组合主要集中在金融业 420 00:15:20,889 --> 00:15:21,070 两 421 00:15:21,070 --> 00:15:22,029 7% 422 00:15:22,029 --> 00:15:22,789 十三点 423 00:15:22,789 --> 00:15:24,009 7%的医疗保健 424 00:15:24,009 --> 00:15:24,649 11点 425 00:15:24,649 --> 00:15:26,950 7%的能源，9点 426 00:15:26,950 --> 00:15:29,129 9%的服务业 427 00:15:29,129 --> 00:15:34,960 让我们看看他本季度实际出售了哪些 428 00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:37,559 这里完全清仓了Sidrill 429 00:15:37,559 --> 00:15:38,159 Nexstar 430 00:15:38,159 --> 00:15:39,419 媒体HP 431 00:15:39,419 --> 00:15:43,879 这是HP Q和VanEck石油服务 432 00:15:44,299 --> 00:15:47,039 看来他买入了很多公司 433 00:15:47,039 --> 00:15:48,110 正如我们所说 434 00:15:48,110 --> 00:15:48,710 好的 435 00:15:48,710 --> 00:15:51,029 Deckers户外是我们熟知的另一个 436 00:15:51,029 --> 00:15:51,269 所以 437 00:15:51,269 --> 00:15:54,230 我们熟知Deckers、Aaron、华纳兄弟探索 438 00:15:54,230 --> 00:15:57,690 如果你在列表中看到任何有趣的名字 439 00:15:57,690 --> 00:16:00,070 请在下方评论区告诉我 440 00:16:00,070 --> 00:16:03,009 因为如果我要逐一查看每个名字 441 00:16:03,009 --> 00:16:04,090 一个接一个 442 00:16:04,090 --> 00:16:07,409 我们将在这里停留很久 443 00:16:07,409 --> 00:16:09,049 继续第三点 444 00:16:09,049 --> 00:16:10,340 丹尼尔·洛布 445 00:16:10,340 --> 00:16:12,820 投资组合中有42个持仓 446 00:16:12,820 --> 00:16:13,600 7.2 447 00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:16,710 50亿美元的价值 448 00:16:16,710 --> 00:16:19,450 这里的第一位大幅减持 449 00:16:19,450 --> 00:16:22,730 从31.5%的PG&E 450 00:16:22,730 --> 00:16:24,230 然后看到第二位 451 00:16:24,230 --> 00:16:26,049 著名公司英伟达 452 00:16:26,049 --> 00:16:26,909 然后是亚马逊 453 00:16:26,909 --> 00:16:27,879 微软 454 00:16:27,879 --> 00:16:28,480 联合 455 00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:29,200 太平洋 456 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:35,250 这份投资组合在第四季度发生了哪些变化，列表还在继续 457 00:16:35,250 --> 00:16:36,809 你可以在这里清楚看到 458 00:16:36,809 --> 00:16:41,059 他在投资组合中新增了许多公司 459 00:16:41,059 --> 00:16:42,139 Chipotle 460 00:16:42,139 --> 00:16:43,019 Constellation 461 00:16:43,019 --> 00:16:43,600 能源 462 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:44,559 阿里巴巴 463 00:16:44,559 --> 00:16:45,659 Api集团 464 00:16:45,659 --> 00:16:46,740 Spotify 465 00:16:46,740 --> 00:16:48,559 Progressive热电鱼 466 00:16:48,559 --> 00:16:52,499 Wix、Com、CSX和Clarity 467 00:16:52,499 --> 00:16:54,458 然后这里最后一个 468 00:16:54,458 --> 00:16:58,799 最后两个非常小的持仓是制药业 469 00:16:58,799 --> 00:17:00,440 他们卖掉了哪些 470 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:04,180 还减持了大量公司如娱乐公司 471 00:17:04,180 --> 00:17:05,319 这些公司名称 472 00:17:05,319 --> 00:17:07,420 真是令人惊叹 473 00:17:07,420 --> 00:17:08,859 Mr. Cooper集团 474 00:17:10,180 --> 00:17:10,599 好的 475 00:17:10,599 --> 00:17:13,240 完全清仓了Meta平台 476 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:14,420 Talent能源 477 00:17:14,420 --> 00:17:15,039 杰克布斯 478 00:17:15,039 --> 00:17:16,598 解决方案与Primo品牌 479 00:17:16,598 --> 00:17:17,719 Floor & Decor 480 00:17:17,719 --> 00:17:18,419 Apollo 481 00:17:18,419 --> 00:17:20,679 全球管理与Core Scientific 482 00:17:20,679 --> 00:17:21,358 好的 483 00:17:21,358 --> 00:17:27,529 我猜社区健康系统已清仓Meta平台，这很有趣 484 00:17:27,529 --> 00:17:30,690 但他又减持了约两 485 00:17:30,690 --> 00:17:33,078 3%的亚马逊 486 00:17:33,078 --> 00:17:33,699 15% 487 00:17:33,699 --> 00:17:36,259 接近16%的微软 488 00:17:36,259 --> 00:17:38,920 61%的台积电 489 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:41,460 这里明显参与其中 490 00:17:41,460 --> 00:17:44,279 我认为这可能属于某种轮动策略 491 00:17:44,279 --> 00:17:46,579 远离科技巨头 492 00:17:46,579 --> 00:17:47,980 半导体公司 493 00:17:47,980 --> 00:17:49,460 以及类似领域 494 00:17:49,460 --> 00:17:52,138 这里再次出现Live Nation 495 00:17:52,138 --> 00:17:53,798 小幅上涨2% 496 00:17:53,798 --> 00:17:55,869 7.7%的涨幅 497 00:17:55,869 --> 00:17:57,410 继续看最后两个 498 00:17:57,410 --> 00:17:57,710 这里 499 00:17:57,710 --> 00:17:59,690 一个是Acre资本管理 500 00:17:59,690 --> 00:18:01,450 投资组合中有18个持仓 501 00:18:01,450 --> 00:18:04,858 91亿美元的价值 502 00:18:04,858 --> 00:18:05,598 排名第一 503 00:18:05,598 --> 00:18:08,659 这里是万事达卡，占比18.8% 504 00:18:08,659 --> 00:18:09,838 接下来是布鲁克菲尔德 505 00:18:09,838 --> 00:18:11,699 KKR与Visa 506 00:18:11,699 --> 00:18:12,759 穆迪公司与星展集团 507 00:18:12,759 --> 00:18:13,898 同样在这里 508 00:18:13,898 --> 00:18:16,058 虽然这不是最性感的投资组合 509 00:18:16,058 --> 00:18:23,660 但绝对是一个非常稳健的组合，他们在四季度卖出过仓位吗 510 00:18:23,660 --> 00:18:23,960 是的 511 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:26,138 他们出售了风险分析业务 512 00:18:26,138 --> 00:18:28,778 这是他们极小的持仓 513 00:18:28,778 --> 00:18:30,618 仅占0.02% 514 00:18:30,618 --> 00:18:31,098 好的 515 00:18:31,098 --> 00:18:33,789 这是唯一完全清仓的标的 516 00:18:33,789 --> 00:18:39,460 虽然在一季度已能嗅到Anaherr Corp的100%减持信号 517 00:18:39,460 --> 00:18:43,059 因为它将仓位减少了92% 518 00:18:43,059 --> 00:18:44,279 至于其余标的 519 00:18:44,279 --> 00:18:46,470 变动不大 520 00:18:46,470 --> 00:18:48,890 增长了85.7% 521 00:18:48,890 --> 00:18:49,930 我觉得没错 522 00:18:49,930 --> 00:18:50,190 好的 523 00:18:50,190 --> 00:18:50,730 在三季度 524 00:18:50,730 --> 00:18:54,450 他又将仓位提升了253% 525 00:18:54,450 --> 00:18:59,309 这说明这是近期新加入的投资组合 526 00:18:59,309 --> 00:19:01,910 这是新加入的公司 527 00:19:01,910 --> 00:19:04,930 FICO也是在二季度新加入的 528 00:19:04,930 --> 00:19:06,109 2025年 529 00:19:06,109 --> 00:19:11,250 三季度大幅增持，四季度再次加仓 530 00:19:11,250 --> 00:19:12,309 在四季度 531 00:19:12,309 --> 00:19:15,569 我预计一季度会继续增持 532 00:19:15,569 --> 00:19:17,910 因为股价已回调 533 00:19:17,910 --> 00:19:20,369 除非他的投资逻辑发生变化 534 00:19:20,369 --> 00:19:21,369 或者有其他变化 535 00:19:21,369 --> 00:19:24,279 但我觉得他现在更看好当前股价 536 00:19:24,279 --> 00:19:28,298 相比一个月前 537 00:19:28,298 --> 00:19:30,278 这就是我们之前提到的 538 00:19:30,278 --> 00:19:32,598 大约一周前 539 00:19:32,598 --> 00:19:33,759 这就是比尔·阿克曼 540 00:19:33,759 --> 00:19:36,179 投资组合15.5亿美元，包含11只股票 541 00:19:36,179 --> 00:19:38,219 市值20亿美元 542 00:19:38,219 --> 00:19:39,779 排名第一 543 00:19:39,779 --> 00:19:40,200 这里 544 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:40,940 数据显示 545 00:19:40,940 --> 00:19:44,240 布鲁克菲尔德公司占比18.15% 546 00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:49,500 但之前我们分析过两个字母股的代码 547 00:19:49,500 --> 00:19:53,500 通常占据投资组合首位 548 00:19:53,500 --> 00:19:55,819 但这次不是 549 00:19:55,819 --> 00:19:59,068 因为他这次减持了该代码 550 00:19:59,068 --> 00:20:00,528 这是非投票权部分 551 00:20:00,528 --> 00:20:03,568 一股谷歌股票两股五 552 00:20:03,568 --> 00:20:04,619 百分之三 553 00:20:04,619 --> 00:20:10,388 而拥有投票权的那部分减少了百分之八十六 554 00:20:10,388 --> 00:20:13,909 现在我们确实知道他新增了哪家公司到投资组合 555 00:20:13,909 --> 00:20:15,148 那就是元平台 556 00:20:15,148 --> 00:20:17,309 这已经达到百分之十一点三 557 00:20:17,309 --> 00:20:19,569 占投资组合的百分之七 558 00:20:19,569 --> 00:20:24,619 亚马逊是百分之十四点二八，优步是百分之十五点九 559 00:20:24,619 --> 00:20:26,240 新增了近六十 560 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:29,960 在亚马逊股权上增加了百分之五 561 00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:33,319 减少了优步和布鲁克菲尔德各零点二个百分点 562 00:20:33,319 --> 00:20:34,750 百分之一点 563 00:20:34,750 --> 00:20:37,440 不算什么大事 564 00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:39,279 然后他是否清仓了某些资产 565 00:20:39,279 --> 00:20:39,599 是的 566 00:20:39,599 --> 00:20:42,319 他完全清仓了Chipotle 567 00:20:42,319 --> 00:20:44,039 墨西哥烧烤连锁 568 00:20:44,039 --> 00:20:48,009 我不禁想知道他是否仍持有耐克看涨期权 569 00:20:48,009 --> 00:20:49,949 我推测他应该持有 570 00:20:49,949 --> 00:20:54,028 看到他减持谷歌股权很有趣 571 00:20:54,028 --> 00:20:55,819 我觉得因为我是说 572 00:20:55,819 --> 00:20:57,059 如果我们回到二季度 573 00:20:57,059 --> 00:20:59,440 他在2025年一季度持续增持 574 00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:00,509 他在那里增持了 575 00:21:00,509 --> 00:21:03,960 他长期看多谷歌 576 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:07,119 可能觉得从那里赚够了 577 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:13,630 我们看到长期更好的机会可能在亚马逊和元平台 578 00:21:13,630 --> 00:21:16,569 这就是他调整的原因 579 00:21:16,569 --> 00:21:19,160 我能责怪他吗 580 00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:20,240 不能真的 581 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:21,940 我仍持有谷歌 582 00:21:21,940 --> 00:21:23,160 我仍持有元平台 583 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:26,079 我的退休组合里还有亚马逊 584 00:21:26,079 --> 00:21:28,449 无论发生什么 585 00:21:28,449 --> 00:21:29,189 我都无所谓 586 00:21:29,189 --> 00:21:30,848 我也看好优步 587 00:21:30,848 --> 00:21:35,099 优步在组合中占比很大 588 00:21:35,099 --> 00:21:38,059 如你所见第二位是百分之十五 589 00:21:38,059 --> 00:21:39,369 九个百分点 590 00:21:39,369 --> 00:21:42,069 这就是超级投资者概览 591 00:21:42,069 --> 00:21:46,588 肯定还有其他超级投资者做出有趣操作 592 00:21:46,588 --> 00:21:48,348 但我觉得够了 593 00:21:48,348 --> 00:21:49,009 够了 594 00:21:49,009 --> 00:21:50,409 你就是超级投资者 595 00:21:50,409 --> 00:21:51,690 别忘了这一点 596 00:21:51,690 --> 00:21:54,369 既然我们以比尔·阿克曼结束 597 00:21:54,369 --> 00:21:56,509 记得我曾在 598 00:21:56,509 --> 00:21:57,750 是两年前 599 00:21:57,750 --> 00:22:02,430 然后它因一个季度未达预期而下跌 600 00:22:02,430 --> 00:22:04,349 随后却大幅上涨 601 00:22:04,349 --> 00:22:08,858 因此让我们谈谈Netflix、华纳兄弟与Discovery的合并 602 00:22:08,858 --> 00:22:12,039 设定特别会议日定于三月二十日 603 00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:20,388 但这为派拉蒙提供了谈判更优条件的机会 604 00:22:20,388 --> 00:22:21,909 大卫·阿伯尔现在加入我们 605 00:22:21,909 --> 00:22:23,588 大卫整个周末都在关注 606 00:22:23,588 --> 00:22:23,909 你知道的 607 00:22:23,909 --> 00:22:27,829 我看到其他金融人士都在说看 608 00:22:27,829 --> 00:22:34,308 派拉蒙与华纳兄弟背后存在复杂情况 609 00:22:34,308 --> 00:22:37,189 很可能有重大动作即将发生 610 00:22:37,189 --> 00:22:38,250 嗯 611 00:22:38,250 --> 00:22:40,789 你能解读这到底意味着什么吗 612 00:22:40,789 --> 00:22:41,990 大卫是 613 00:22:41,990 --> 00:22:43,730 如果你是科奇 614 00:22:43,730 --> 00:22:44,369 如果是大卫 615 00:22:44,369 --> 00:22:45,220 克希 616 00:22:45,220 --> 00:22:47,200 你的Netflix数据 617 00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:47,900 普遍情况 618 00:22:47,900 --> 00:22:49,980 这会导致Netflix数据下滑吗 619 00:22:49,980 --> 00:22:53,160 毫无疑问在继续解释前 620 00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:54,519 正如屏幕所示 621 00:22:54,519 --> 00:22:59,849 Netflix给予华纳兄弟七日协商期与派拉蒙接洽 622 00:22:59,849 --> 00:23:01,269 为什么必须这么做 623 00:23:01,269 --> 00:23:01,710 因为毕竟 624 00:23:01,710 --> 00:23:05,789 Netflix已有与华纳兄弟的现有协议 625 00:23:05,789 --> 00:23:08,130 在继续说明前 626 00:23:08,130 --> 00:23:10,109 如果概率上升 627 00:23:10,109 --> 00:23:11,650 我只想说 628 00:23:11,650 --> 00:23:12,710 此刻我的感受是 629 00:23:12,710 --> 00:23:14,650 作为Netflix股东 630 00:23:14,650 --> 00:23:16,710 自收购宣布以来 631 00:23:16,710 --> 00:23:19,289 Netflix股价大幅下跌 632 00:23:19,289 --> 00:23:21,450 我们已下跌近33% 633 00:23:21,450 --> 00:23:22,980 约5%左右 634 00:23:22,980 --> 00:23:26,460 我们还知道由于此次收购 635 00:23:26,460 --> 00:23:29,339 他们不再回购股份 636 00:23:29,339 --> 00:23:31,980 最后非常重要的一点 637 00:23:31,980 --> 00:23:33,140 就我而言 638 00:23:33,140 --> 00:23:34,450 我喜欢这笔交易 639 00:23:34,450 --> 00:23:34,910 是的 640 00:23:34,910 --> 00:23:36,150 这不是低价交易 641 00:23:36,150 --> 00:23:40,109 但我认为这对长期发展非常有利 642 00:23:40,109 --> 00:23:41,450 如果未能达成 643 00:23:41,450 --> 00:23:42,470 正如我之前所说 644 00:23:42,470 --> 00:23:43,720 如果未能达成 645 00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:45,720 我希望Netflix能获得赔偿 646 00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:47,740 如果这笔交易失败 647 00:23:47,740 --> 00:23:52,710 因为华纳兄弟接受了派拉蒙的新优协议 648 00:23:52,710 --> 00:23:57,380 华纳兄弟需向Netflix支付28亿美元 649 00:23:57,380 --> 00:24:00,319 这意味着Netflix将获得28亿美元 650 00:24:00,319 --> 00:24:02,920 并且可能会开始回购股份 651 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:07,869 猜猜看以三成或三成五的折扣 652 00:24:07,869 --> 00:24:08,750 对我来说 653 00:24:08,750 --> 00:24:11,138 我看到这里都是双赢局面 654 00:24:11,138 --> 00:24:13,358 唯一输的场景是 655 00:24:13,358 --> 00:24:15,759 如果Netflix无法收购华纳兄弟 656 00:24:15,759 --> 00:24:17,858 这全赖Netflix的责任 657 00:24:17,858 --> 00:24:19,138 他们将不得不支付 658 00:24:19,138 --> 00:24:20,859 我认为五点六 659 00:24:20,859 --> 00:24:23,339 约五点八亿美元 660 00:24:23,339 --> 00:24:24,160 给华纳兄弟 661 00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:24,880 这将是 662 00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:26,019 在我看来 663 00:24:26,019 --> 00:24:28,819 最坏情况是股价下跌 664 00:24:28,819 --> 00:24:30,519 我认为这反映在华纳兄弟 665 00:24:30,519 --> 00:24:31,940 今早股价上涨 666 00:24:31,940 --> 00:24:33,069 乔也是如此 667 00:24:33,069 --> 00:24:33,509 嗯 668 00:24:33,509 --> 00:24:34,990 他们现在有七天时间 669 00:24:34,990 --> 00:24:40,259 有趣的是正如你所指出他们并未收到 670 00:24:40,259 --> 00:24:45,170 可能我们认为他们本应提出的更优方案 671 00:24:45,170 --> 00:24:45,789 考虑到派拉蒙一周前对其报价的改进 672 00:24:45,789 --> 00:24:49,470 似乎解决了华纳兄弟董事会的许多担忧 673 00:24:49,470 --> 00:24:53,569 但他们获得了Netflix的七天宽限期 674 00:24:53,569 --> 00:24:54,029 Netflix 675 00:24:54,029 --> 00:24:56,670 当然仍保留匹配能力 676 00:24:56,670 --> 00:25:01,029 无论派拉蒙提出什么方案 677 00:25:01,029 --> 00:25:02,849 可以说在接下来的七天内 678 00:25:02,849 --> 00:25:03,929 如果他们这样做 679 00:25:03,929 --> 00:25:06,148 正如新闻稿中明确说明 680 00:25:06,148 --> 00:25:10,388 其中一位顾问联系董事会并表示若积极回应 681 00:25:10,388 --> 00:25:11,628 正如我所预料的 682 00:25:11,628 --> 00:25:14,420 本周他们至少会出价三一 683 00:25:14,420 --> 00:25:15,180 或更高 684 00:25:15,180 --> 00:25:17,240 因为他们表明这不是最终报价 685 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:19,690 所以我肯定认为回答这个问题 686 00:25:19,690 --> 00:25:24,609 Netflix获胜的概率会下降而派拉蒙上升 687 00:25:24,609 --> 00:25:26,809 你可以自行判断 688 00:25:26,809 --> 00:25:27,890 我想我们是对的 689 00:25:27,890 --> 00:25:28,329 毕竟 690 00:25:28,329 --> 00:25:29,450 我们与他们有合作关系 691 00:25:29,450 --> 00:25:29,829 不是吗 692 00:25:29,829 --> 00:25:30,109 是的 693 00:25:30,109 --> 00:25:32,049 就是这样 694 00:25:32,460 --> 00:25:34,559 接下来七天将很有趣 695 00:25:34,559 --> 00:25:35,279 你知道的 696 00:25:35,279 --> 00:25:37,619 派拉蒙能否解决 697 00:25:37,619 --> 00:25:38,619 不仅仅是价格问题 698 00:25:38,619 --> 00:25:41,630 还包括剩余的其他担忧 699 00:25:41,630 --> 00:25:42,509 因为 700 00:25:42,509 --> 00:25:45,029 尽管它们似乎解决了许多问题 701 00:25:45,029 --> 00:25:47,450 华纳兄弟回应说好吧 702 00:25:47,450 --> 00:25:50,769 你在宣布增强功能的新闻稿中说过一件事 703 00:25:50,769 --> 00:25:52,849 但在合并协议中你提出给我们的 704 00:25:52,849 --> 00:25:54,809 你现在其实变化不大 705 00:25:54,809 --> 00:25:56,250 派拉蒙方面会说好吧 706 00:25:56,250 --> 00:25:58,630 关于临时运营协议这类事情 707 00:25:58,630 --> 00:26:00,109 我们不能加入那种条款 708 00:26:00,109 --> 00:26:01,269 我们还不清楚具体内容 709 00:26:01,269 --> 00:26:02,500 我们必须和你进一步沟通 710 00:26:02,500 --> 00:26:03,740 还有一些其他事项 711 00:26:03,740 --> 00:26:08,940 主要担忧仍是整体杠杆收购结构问题 712 00:26:08,940 --> 00:26:12,420 你知道有线电视行业现状如何 713 00:26:12,420 --> 00:26:13,839 特别是对派拉蒙而言 714 00:26:13,839 --> 00:26:15,119 有线电视网络 715 00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:15,940 MTV 716 00:26:15,940 --> 00:26:16,559 尼克儿童频道 717 00:26:16,559 --> 00:26:20,839 像这些业务可能继续下滑到严重程度 718 00:26:20,839 --> 00:26:23,519 届时几乎不再是一个持续运营实体 719 00:26:23,519 --> 00:26:27,049 因此我们如何相信它们能在交割时存在 720 00:26:27,049 --> 00:26:28,730 或者他们会通知银行撤回 721 00:26:28,730 --> 00:26:30,769 因为他们知道这会导致资不抵债 722 00:26:30,769 --> 00:26:34,170 如果此时真正收购华纳兄弟 723 00:26:34,170 --> 00:26:37,880 所以他们仍在要求你解决这个问题 724 00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:38,799 这会是什么方案 725 00:26:38,799 --> 00:26:42,980 或许达成协议让拉里·埃里森增加更多股权并支持派拉蒙 726 00:26:42,980 --> 00:26:46,690 如果交割时该实体已不再存续 727 00:26:46,690 --> 00:26:48,769 但双方正在接近共识 728 00:26:48,769 --> 00:26:50,809 他不断重复这些观点 729 00:26:50,809 --> 00:26:52,849 但核心问题在于 730 00:26:52,849 --> 00:26:54,940 这笔交易更具合理性 731 00:26:54,940 --> 00:26:56,039 Netflix的方案 732 00:26:56,039 --> 00:26:56,359 是的 733 00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:57,019 我有个人偏见 734 00:26:57,019 --> 00:27:02,960 但Netflix想购买华纳的战略资产 735 00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:05,299 它不需要全部资金 736 00:27:05,299 --> 00:27:06,660 剥离业务部分 737 00:27:06,660 --> 00:27:08,059 不需要全部资产 738 00:27:08,059 --> 00:27:09,769 需要知识产权 739 00:27:09,769 --> 00:27:10,950 流媒体业务 740 00:27:10,950 --> 00:27:13,289 还能获得部分体育转播权 741 00:27:13,289 --> 00:27:16,710 我认为这才是关键 742 00:27:16,710 --> 00:27:24,049 这将使Netflix与HBO的业务更优胜 743 00:27:24,049 --> 00:27:24,410 比如 744 00:27:24,410 --> 00:27:29,329 如果华纳被派拉蒙完全收购 745 00:27:29,329 --> 00:27:32,410 但Netflix作为独立业务 746 00:27:32,410 --> 00:27:34,730 是其中最优质的企业 747 00:27:34,730 --> 00:27:37,680 与其他竞争对手相比 748 00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:40,599 利润率最高 749 00:27:40,599 --> 00:27:44,700 增长速度也更快 750 00:27:44,700 --> 00:27:46,450 良好的盈利能力 751 00:27:46,450 --> 00:27:49,109 对我来说这更有道理 752 00:27:49,109 --> 00:27:52,750 如果Netflix从华纳兄弟获得所需资源的话 753 00:27:52,750 --> 00:27:56,539 如果派拉蒙收购整个公司 754 00:27:56,660 --> 00:27:57,700 这里的结构安排 755 00:27:57,700 --> 00:27:58,579 存在大量债务 756 00:27:58,579 --> 00:28:00,460 有众多外部投资者 757 00:28:00,460 --> 00:28:01,579 我认为你会看到 758 00:28:01,579 --> 00:28:02,759 当然埃隆夫妇 759 00:28:02,759 --> 00:28:03,539 你会看到卡塔尔 760 00:28:03,539 --> 00:28:03,980 你会看到 761 00:28:03,980 --> 00:28:06,190 我认为沙特在该交易中 762 00:28:06,190 --> 00:28:08,349 所以处理这些信息 763 00:28:08,349 --> 00:28:09,430 你想要我做什么 764 00:28:09,430 --> 00:28:10,289 是的再次 765 00:28:10,289 --> 00:28:10,930 我有偏见 766 00:28:10,930 --> 00:28:12,659 因为我持有Netflix股份 767 00:28:12,659 --> 00:28:13,818 我也喜欢电视剧 768 00:28:13,818 --> 00:28:14,618 我也喜欢电影 769 00:28:14,618 --> 00:28:19,059 我认为HBO制作的高质量内容 770 00:28:19,059 --> 00:28:20,400 但如果你问我 771 00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:23,180 这对Netflix是双赢局面 772 00:28:23,180 --> 00:28:24,220 目前而言 773 00:28:24,220 --> 00:28:28,219 未来七天我们将获得更多信息 774 00:28:28,219 --> 00:28:30,439 三月时我们应该会得到 775 00:28:30,439 --> 00:28:32,579 当然完整图景 776 00:28:32,579 --> 00:28:36,529 如果派拉蒙与华纳兄弟无进展 777 00:28:36,529 --> 00:28:37,450 在此期间 778 00:28:37,450 --> 00:28:39,690 这就是Netflix传递的信息 779 00:28:39,690 --> 00:28:39,910 是的 780 00:28:39,910 --> 00:28:43,509 他们表示自宣布以来已过去两周五天 781 00:28:43,509 --> 00:28:49,029 但峰值在七月左右，我认为更多 782 00:28:49,029 --> 00:28:49,970 实际上已达到峰值 783 00:28:49,970 --> 00:28:53,089 从峰值下跌了42% 784 00:28:53,089 --> 00:28:56,769 若看十月末可能略低 785 00:28:56,769 --> 00:28:58,719 比那更低一些 786 00:28:58,719 --> 00:29:00,159 至于Netflix 787 00:29:00,159 --> 00:29:02,618 我相信他们能获得那2.8亿美元 788 00:29:02,618 --> 00:29:04,298 从华纳兄弟获得80亿美元 789 00:29:04,298 --> 00:29:06,509 他们可以立即投入 790 00:29:06,509 --> 00:29:08,059 回购股份 791 00:29:08,059 --> 00:29:09,200 嗯是的 792 00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:12,359 股价很快会见底 793 00:29:12,359 --> 00:29:13,299 总之 794 00:29:13,299 --> 00:29:16,230 这个故事终有结局 795 00:29:16,230 --> 00:29:19,029 我预计三月底 796 00:29:19,029 --> 00:29:21,230 无论如何 797 00:29:21,230 --> 00:29:22,170 这就是我的看法 798 00:29:22,170 --> 00:29:22,650 在这段视频中 799 00:29:22,650 --> 00:29:23,730 如果你喜欢此类视频 800 00:29:23,730 --> 00:29:24,609 按下所有按钮 801 00:29:24,609 --> 00:29:25,650 我们很感激 802 00:29:25,650 --> 00:29:27,430 我们将在下一个见面 803 00:29:27,430 --> 00:29:28,359 再见
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