BV1pJffBDEEh · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:01,960 --> 00:00:02,359 你好 2 00:00:02,359 --> 00:00:03,399 我是阿尔布鲁克斯 3 00:00:03,399 --> 00:00:05,200 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程 4 00:00:05,200 --> 00:00:08,720 这是趋势的第四节课 5 00:00:12,039 --> 00:00:15,519 这节课我们来讲三种趋势类型 6 00:00:15,519 --> 00:00:19,179 第一种是从开盘开始的趋势 7 00:00:19,379 --> 00:00:21,420 然后是震荡的趋势 8 00:00:21,420 --> 00:00:24,280 日震荡上涨或震荡下跌 9 00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:27,579 最后是宽通道中的趋势 10 00:00:31,620 --> 00:00:33,539 当我说到从开盘开始的趋势 11 00:00:33,539 --> 00:00:36,520 它并不一定是从当天的第一根K线就开始 12 00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:39,299 尽管很多确实是从第一根K线开始的 13 00:00:39,299 --> 00:00:40,000 一般来说 14 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:42,960 第一根K线有20%的概率 15 00:00:43,079 --> 00:00:47,280 是当天的最高点或最低点 16 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:51,140 当你看到一个这样的从开盘开始的趋势时 17 00:00:51,140 --> 00:00:52,859 随着K线越来越多 18 00:00:52,859 --> 00:00:56,159 它越有可能是当天的最低点 19 00:00:58,000 --> 00:00:59,460 这一天是跳空高开 20 00:00:59,460 --> 00:01:00,880 我没有显示昨天的行情 21 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:03,039 只显示了两根K线 22 00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:06,200 跳空高开 23 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:08,459 然后前两根K线是阳线 24 00:01:08,459 --> 00:01:12,948 仅这一点就足以让我认为目前只能做多 25 00:01:12,989 --> 00:01:15,629 这足以让我认为市场处于一个上涨趋势中 26 00:01:15,629 --> 00:01:17,248 尽管两根K线都有上影线 27 00:01:17,248 --> 00:01:20,879 但其中一根的实体部分至少占整根K线的一半 28 00:01:21,000 --> 00:01:22,920 至少占了整根K线的一半 29 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:25,239 而且它的体积很大 30 00:01:26,129 --> 00:01:27,269 趋势继续 31 00:01:27,269 --> 00:01:31,469 交易者一路买入11根K线的上涨小通道 32 00:01:31,469 --> 00:01:33,549 前11根K线中没有阴线 33 00:01:33,549 --> 00:01:35,185 没有回调 34 00:01:35,799 --> 00:01:38,459 多头还连续制造了收在高位的阳线 35 00:01:38,459 --> 00:01:40,500 当你在开盘看到这种情况时 36 00:01:40,500 --> 00:01:43,400 有60%甚至更高的概率 37 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:45,739 价格会向上达到某种mm目标位 38 00:01:45,739 --> 00:01:47,200 比如说这两根K线的突破 39 00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:50,569 从第一根K线的开盘价到第二根K线的收盘价 40 00:01:50,569 --> 00:01:52,689 把这段距离往上翻一倍 41 00:01:52,689 --> 00:01:55,250 大约到那个位置 42 00:01:55,858 --> 00:01:57,358 当你看到跳空高开 43 00:01:57,358 --> 00:01:59,219 然后一根K线 44 00:01:59,379 --> 00:02:00,280 两根K线 45 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:01,859 三根K线全都是阳线 46 00:02:01,859 --> 00:02:03,379 然后你开始看到突破K线 47 00:02:03,379 --> 00:02:04,420 大阳线收在最高 48 00:02:04,420 --> 00:02:06,069 这体现了一种紧迫感 49 00:02:06,069 --> 00:02:07,370 这通常是一个信号 50 00:02:07,370 --> 00:02:10,949 表明市场正处于强上涨趋势的早期 51 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:13,199 前11根K线 52 00:02:13,199 --> 00:02:15,240 交易者都在前一根K线的低点上方买入 53 00:02:15,240 --> 00:02:16,639 每根K线的低点都在抬高 54 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:17,419 跌不下去 55 00:02:17,419 --> 00:02:19,000 他们甚至没有等待回调 56 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:20,319 每个人都急于买入 57 00:02:20,319 --> 00:02:22,590 他们在K线收盘时买入市价 58 00:02:22,590 --> 00:02:23,689 买入买K线的收盘 59 00:02:23,689 --> 00:02:25,710 他们当然希望在前一根K线的低点下方 60 00:02:25,710 --> 00:02:26,490 逢低买入 61 00:02:26,490 --> 00:02:27,789 但连续11根K线 62 00:02:27,789 --> 00:02:31,384 没有任何一根K线跌破了前一根K线的低点 63 00:02:34,139 --> 00:02:36,419 当你在开盘感觉到这样的紧迫感时 64 00:02:36,419 --> 00:02:39,300 一个持续了大约一个小时的非常强的突破 65 00:02:39,300 --> 00:02:42,039 市场通常会横盘几个小时 66 00:02:42,039 --> 00:02:44,639 然后在趋势反转向下 67 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:49,120 和趋势恢复向上之间做出决定 68 00:02:50,389 --> 00:02:53,270 这里市场在一个震荡区间内运行了三个小时 69 00:02:54,629 --> 00:02:57,870 在收盘前趋势略微恢复了上涨 70 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:02,659 如果你做外汇交易 71 00:03:02,659 --> 00:03:05,120 实际上不存在确切的开盘时间 72 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:06,879 有些日子比如在美盘交易时段 73 00:03:06,879 --> 00:03:08,060 可能从05:30分开始处 74 00:03:08,060 --> 00:03:09,139 加州时间5.30分 75 00:03:09,139 --> 00:03:10,340 即美东时间8.30分 76 00:03:10,340 --> 00:03:11,580 有时可能从06:30分开始 77 00:03:11,580 --> 00:03:13,060 或者从五点或04:45分开始 78 00:03:13,060 --> 00:03:14,379 分别是美东时间9.30分 79 00:03:14,379 --> 00:03:16,030 8.7.45分 80 00:03:16,030 --> 00:03:18,849 所以当我讲到从开盘开始的趋势时 81 00:03:18,849 --> 00:03:21,110 我通常是指有单一交易时段 82 00:03:21,110 --> 00:03:23,490 和确切开盘时间的市场 83 00:03:23,490 --> 00:03:28,120 比如股票市场或股指期货的常规交易时段啊 84 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:32,340 如果是外汇市场或其他任何24小时市场 85 00:03:32,340 --> 00:03:35,680 我通常不会说从开盘开始的趋势 86 00:03:36,439 --> 00:03:39,240 这些市场基本上每天24小时开放 87 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:41,199 交易时段重叠 88 00:03:42,009 --> 00:03:45,969 而且每天的开盘时间通常都不一样 89 00:03:47,219 --> 00:03:51,030 通常在交易时段开始时会有一个报告引起突破 90 00:03:51,030 --> 00:03:53,629 所以我会用其他词语来描述这个趋势 91 00:03:53,629 --> 00:03:56,870 例如这里我就简单地称其为突破 92 00:03:58,819 --> 00:03:59,759 多头突破 93 00:03:59,759 --> 00:04:01,060 然后进入通道 94 00:04:01,060 --> 00:04:02,080 在我看来 95 00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:04,219 这是一个急速变通道的结构 96 00:04:04,219 --> 00:04:07,530 这也是一个几乎没有回调的上涨趋势 97 00:04:07,530 --> 00:04:09,610 回调非常小 98 00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:12,000 与其称之为从开盘开始的趋势 99 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:15,280 我宁愿称之为急速变通道的上涨趋势 100 00:04:18,699 --> 00:04:19,420 实际上 101 00:04:19,420 --> 00:04:22,000 外汇市场只是每周有一个明确的开盘时间 102 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:23,759 但它每天有三个交易时段处 103 00:04:23,759 --> 00:04:26,379 分别是亚盘欧盘美盘 104 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:31,120 这三个交易时段中的每一个都可以有 105 00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:32,839 从开盘开始的趋势 106 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:36,819 尽管这个开盘时间并不一定每天都相同 107 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:45,310 例如这个是欧元兑美元的5分钟图 108 00:04:45,310 --> 00:04:46,949 交易时段的开始 109 00:04:46,949 --> 00:04:50,250 通常与金融市场开始活跃的时间相对应 110 00:04:50,250 --> 00:04:53,610 大约是加州时间的早上5.30分 111 00:04:53,610 --> 00:04:58,339 即美国东部时间的早上8.30分 112 00:04:59,379 --> 00:05:01,519 当你看到像这样的大幅移动时 113 00:05:01,519 --> 00:05:05,060 你可以说它是从开盘开始的下降趋势 114 00:05:05,060 --> 00:05:07,899 但由于他可以在任何一天的任何时间出现 115 00:05:07,899 --> 00:05:10,220 我宁愿就叫他突破 116 00:05:13,139 --> 00:05:15,259 这个也是欧元兑美元 117 00:05:15,259 --> 00:05:18,259 这是欧洲时段的开始 118 00:05:19,439 --> 00:05:20,639 窄的震荡区间 119 00:05:20,639 --> 00:05:22,180 相当平淡的开盘 120 00:05:22,180 --> 00:05:25,879 然而它成为了该时段的最高点 121 00:05:26,290 --> 00:05:27,550 有一根小阴线 122 00:05:27,550 --> 00:05:28,850 后续的跟随很差 123 00:05:30,290 --> 00:05:31,750 开盘有些犹豫 124 00:05:31,750 --> 00:05:33,740 缺乏确定性 125 00:05:33,740 --> 00:05:37,420 尽管他从非常安静的双向的震荡行为开始 126 00:05:37,420 --> 00:05:41,180 他仍然可能是从开盘开始的下降趋势 127 00:05:44,319 --> 00:05:50,040 这里我所说的开盘是指欧盘交易时段的开始 128 00:05:52,300 --> 00:05:54,019 尽管刚开盘的时候主要是横盘 129 00:05:54,019 --> 00:05:55,899 它仍然是从开盘开始的下降趋势 130 00:05:55,899 --> 00:05:57,519 然后进入窄下降通道 131 00:05:57,519 --> 00:05:59,220 一个更强劲的下降趋势 132 00:05:59,220 --> 00:06:01,899 在更高时间级别上是突破 133 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:08,560 九根K线的下降小通道 134 00:06:08,939 --> 00:06:10,860 其中五根阴线体积很大 135 00:06:10,860 --> 00:06:11,959 并且收在低位 136 00:06:11,959 --> 00:06:14,980 这三根连续的阴线非常强势 137 00:06:15,259 --> 00:06:17,319 所以这很可能是趋势的早期 138 00:06:17,319 --> 00:06:20,649 至少会指引价格下跌到某个mm目标位 139 00:06:20,649 --> 00:06:23,389 也许是基于这个突破的高度往下翻一倍 140 00:06:23,389 --> 00:06:24,790 甚至有更远的目标位 141 00:06:24,790 --> 00:06:26,850 事实上确实跌得更远 142 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:29,600 你想说他是从开盘开始的下降趋势吗 143 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:31,040 这是美盘时段的开始 144 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:32,339 你可以这么叫他 145 00:06:32,339 --> 00:06:35,079 我就简单地称其为窄通道下降趋势 146 00:06:35,079 --> 00:06:37,889 它在更高时间级别上是一次突破 147 00:06:37,889 --> 00:06:38,889 无论如何 148 00:06:38,889 --> 00:06:41,149 这是一种足够强劲的趋势 149 00:06:41,149 --> 00:06:43,129 九根K线的下降小通道 150 00:06:43,129 --> 00:06:44,509 几根强劲的阴线 151 00:06:44,509 --> 00:06:47,410 很大的概率至少会再跌一点 152 00:06:48,838 --> 00:06:50,990 空头急于卖出做空 153 00:06:50,990 --> 00:06:52,569 他们甚至不等待反弹 154 00:06:52,569 --> 00:06:54,350 他们在反弹之前就开仓卖出了 155 00:06:54,350 --> 00:06:56,589 他们没有试图在前一根K线的高点上方 156 00:06:56,589 --> 00:06:57,189 逢高做空 157 00:06:57,189 --> 00:06:58,839 而是直接市价卖出 158 00:07:00,180 --> 00:07:02,529 他们非常着急的卖出 159 00:07:02,529 --> 00:07:04,430 如果每个人都急于卖出 160 00:07:04,430 --> 00:07:06,709 那么就算有一点点小的反弹 161 00:07:06,709 --> 00:07:08,779 交易者也会开仓卖出 162 00:07:08,779 --> 00:07:11,519 没有反弹也愿意卖出 163 00:07:11,519 --> 00:07:14,860 而当反弹终于出现时 164 00:07:15,949 --> 00:07:17,970 你知道它大概率不是反转 165 00:07:17,970 --> 00:07:21,870 而是熊奇价格至少会再继续下跌一些 166 00:07:25,279 --> 00:07:28,040 接下来我想讲一讲震荡的趋势 167 00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:32,040 也就是由一系列震荡区间组成的趋势 168 00:07:34,319 --> 00:07:36,779 当我在开盘时看到这样的震荡区间 169 00:07:36,779 --> 00:07:38,240 并且震荡区间的高度 170 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:41,350 大约是平均日内波动幅度的一半时 171 00:07:41,550 --> 00:07:43,870 我会假设今天的波动幅度 172 00:07:43,870 --> 00:07:46,279 会和平均日内的波动幅度一样大 173 00:07:46,279 --> 00:07:48,439 所以这个区间的高度会翻倍 174 00:07:48,439 --> 00:07:50,339 它可以通过向上突破翻倍 175 00:07:50,339 --> 00:07:53,160 也可以通过向下突破翻倍 176 00:07:54,509 --> 00:07:56,869 他也可以向下突破一点 177 00:07:56,869 --> 00:07:58,588 再向上突破一点 178 00:08:00,069 --> 00:08:02,428 保持震荡一整天 179 00:08:04,699 --> 00:08:07,220 如果某天是一个震荡的趋势日 180 00:08:07,220 --> 00:08:08,879 会有一个初始的区间 181 00:08:08,879 --> 00:08:12,100 大约是平均日内波动幅度的一半 182 00:08:12,310 --> 00:08:13,470 然后会突破 183 00:08:13,470 --> 00:08:16,350 这个突破通常相当短暂 184 00:08:16,350 --> 00:08:17,790 有时是一根K线 185 00:08:17,790 --> 00:08:19,490 有时是5~6根K线 186 00:08:19,490 --> 00:08:20,990 总之是短暂的突破 187 00:08:20,990 --> 00:08:24,269 然后市场开始进入另一个震荡区间 188 00:08:25,029 --> 00:08:27,509 这是一个标准的震荡趋势 189 00:08:27,509 --> 00:08:28,910 有一个震荡区间 190 00:08:28,910 --> 00:08:30,949 然后是几根K线的短暂突破 191 00:08:30,949 --> 00:08:33,509 然后形成另一个震荡区间 192 00:08:36,620 --> 00:08:40,940 60%的时间在这样的一个震荡趋势 193 00:08:41,230 --> 00:08:45,029 这个案例是一个下降的震荡趋势日 194 00:08:45,029 --> 00:08:49,149 市场至少会回到前一个区间中 195 00:08:49,700 --> 00:08:51,759 在下降震荡趋势日 196 00:08:51,759 --> 00:08:54,409 我预期市场在某个时刻 197 00:08:54,409 --> 00:08:57,090 至少会回到上一个区间的底部上方 198 00:08:57,090 --> 00:08:57,470 一点 199 00:08:57,470 --> 00:09:00,399 60%的时间会发生这种情况 200 00:09:00,399 --> 00:09:02,259 40%的时间不会 201 00:09:02,259 --> 00:09:03,820 市场要么保持横盘 202 00:09:03,820 --> 00:09:06,159 要么再下跌一段 203 00:09:08,299 --> 00:09:09,980 像所有震荡区间一样 204 00:09:09,980 --> 00:09:11,859 一旦有震荡区间 205 00:09:11,859 --> 00:09:13,458 你就必须考虑突破模式 206 00:09:13,458 --> 00:09:15,739 并且突破可以是向上或向下任意一个 207 00:09:15,739 --> 00:09:17,750 这里趋势被向上反转 208 00:09:17,750 --> 00:09:18,870 下降趋势 209 00:09:18,870 --> 00:09:20,990 然后震荡区间它是雄起 210 00:09:20,990 --> 00:09:22,710 但没有向下继续跌破 211 00:09:22,710 --> 00:09:24,279 而是向上突破 212 00:09:24,279 --> 00:09:25,080 一般来说 213 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:27,279 一旦震荡区间持续超过20根K线 214 00:09:27,279 --> 00:09:28,639 这里略微不到20根K线 215 00:09:28,639 --> 00:09:31,529 一旦震荡区间持续超过20根K线 216 00:09:31,529 --> 00:09:34,450 多头突破的概率就变得和空头突破的概率 217 00:09:34,450 --> 00:09:34,950 一样高 218 00:09:34,950 --> 00:09:36,970 多空双方突破的概率是50对 219 00:09:36,970 --> 00:09:38,090 50 220 00:09:39,419 --> 00:09:41,899 再次强调60%的概率 221 00:09:41,899 --> 00:09:45,480 后一个区间会回到前一个区间的底部上方 222 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:47,419 至少超过一点点 223 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:53,679 在震荡趋势日中突破 224 00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:56,279 通常持续三根K线或4~6根K线 225 00:09:56,279 --> 00:09:59,149 然后你再次看到形成区间的迹象 226 00:09:59,149 --> 00:10:00,769 可以看到这里有几根阳线 227 00:10:00,769 --> 00:10:01,590 然后是一根阴线 228 00:10:01,590 --> 00:10:02,149 一根阳线 229 00:10:02,149 --> 00:10:03,500 然后是十字星 230 00:10:03,500 --> 00:10:06,100 看起来可能会进入另一个震荡区间 231 00:10:06,100 --> 00:10:09,139 那么今天就是一个震荡趋势 232 00:10:10,090 --> 00:10:14,049 一旦震荡区间持续超过20根K线 233 00:10:14,049 --> 00:10:16,549 50%的概率价格会向下跌破 234 00:10:16,549 --> 00:10:17,409 趋势被反转 235 00:10:17,409 --> 00:10:19,750 50%的概率价格会向上突破 236 00:10:19,750 --> 00:10:21,250 趋势继续 237 00:10:22,169 --> 00:10:24,809 市场在寻找一个公平的价格 238 00:10:24,809 --> 00:10:27,710 而目前交易者认为价格太低 239 00:10:27,710 --> 00:10:33,850 所以市场在一个相当强劲的多头窄通道中上涨 240 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:37,470 上涨是寻找更多卖家的过程 241 00:10:37,470 --> 00:10:38,870 这里没有足够的卖家 242 00:10:38,870 --> 00:10:40,889 市场必须上涨才能找到更多卖家 243 00:10:40,889 --> 00:10:42,690 刚才说60%的时间里 244 00:10:42,690 --> 00:10:45,090 后一个区间会与前一个区间重叠 245 00:10:45,090 --> 00:10:46,629 但是看这里 246 00:10:46,629 --> 00:10:50,269 这个区间的底部没有与前一个区间的顶部重叠 247 00:10:50,269 --> 00:10:50,710 缺口 248 00:10:50,710 --> 00:10:51,649 这是一个信号 249 00:10:51,649 --> 00:10:53,669 表明多头更加强势 250 00:10:53,669 --> 00:10:57,809 然而再次突破后形成了另一个区间 251 00:10:57,809 --> 00:11:01,669 这两个区间之间就有了重叠 252 00:11:03,940 --> 00:11:06,509 每次看到一个相当强劲的突破时 253 00:11:06,509 --> 00:11:08,590 这是市场在告诉你 254 00:11:08,590 --> 00:11:10,309 价格仍然太低 255 00:11:10,309 --> 00:11:14,309 必须上涨才能找到更多卖家 256 00:11:15,499 --> 00:11:16,578 再次强调 257 00:11:16,578 --> 00:11:18,179 在这个案例中 258 00:11:18,179 --> 00:11:20,100 尽管有60%的概率 259 00:11:20,100 --> 00:11:22,759 后一个区间会与前一个区间重叠 260 00:11:22,759 --> 00:11:25,090 但也有40%的概率不会 261 00:11:25,090 --> 00:11:26,230 这里有一个缺口 262 00:11:26,230 --> 00:11:28,769 后一个区间的顶部和前一个区间的底部之间 263 00:11:28,769 --> 00:11:29,429 存在空隙 264 00:11:29,429 --> 00:11:31,649 这是多头更加强势的信号 265 00:11:31,649 --> 00:11:33,490 空投无法填补缺口 266 00:11:33,490 --> 00:11:36,110 这增加了继续上涨的概率 267 00:11:36,269 --> 00:11:38,070 所以当你开始看到这个突破时 268 00:11:38,070 --> 00:11:40,700 你必须假设这次突破的成功率 269 00:11:40,700 --> 00:11:42,139 实际上要高于50% 270 00:11:42,139 --> 00:11:43,720 注正常情况是50% 271 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:45,519 但前面的缺口表明多头更强 272 00:11:45,519 --> 00:11:46,840 所以这里大于50% 273 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:48,440 再次突破之后确实有重叠 274 00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:51,480 第三个震荡区间与第二个震荡区间重叠 275 00:11:51,679 --> 00:11:54,639 这是趋势变弱的信号 276 00:11:58,820 --> 00:12:01,039 强劲的空头突破小的下降通道 277 00:12:01,039 --> 00:12:03,320 很多连续的阴线收在低位 278 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:06,019 大概率至少还会下跌一些 279 00:12:06,019 --> 00:12:07,639 一些是多少呢 280 00:12:07,639 --> 00:12:09,519 可能是这里或者这里 281 00:12:09,519 --> 00:12:13,000 然而大跌大涨是震荡区间的特征 282 00:12:13,000 --> 00:12:14,580 然后再次向下突破 283 00:12:14,580 --> 00:12:16,440 这个突破只持续了几根K线 284 00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:18,039 事实上只有一两根K线 285 00:12:18,039 --> 00:12:20,440 在前一个区间的低点的低点下方 286 00:12:20,440 --> 00:12:21,480 像平时一样 287 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:22,720 60%的概率 288 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:25,740 后一个区间的顶部会与前一个区间的底部 289 00:12:25,740 --> 00:12:27,799 至少有一点重叠 290 00:12:28,548 --> 00:12:30,528 震荡持续20或30根K线之后 291 00:12:30,528 --> 00:12:32,068 市场就处于突破模式了 292 00:12:32,068 --> 00:12:34,168 趋势可能继续恢复下跌 293 00:12:34,168 --> 00:12:35,649 也可能反转向上 294 00:12:35,649 --> 00:12:37,769 在20~30根K线后 295 00:12:37,769 --> 00:12:40,629 两者的概率变得差不多 296 00:12:44,639 --> 00:12:45,779 在这个案例中 297 00:12:45,779 --> 00:12:47,860 市场决定价格太低了 298 00:12:47,860 --> 00:12:51,000 必须上涨才能找到更多卖价 299 00:12:52,759 --> 00:12:54,279 这是常见的情况 300 00:12:54,279 --> 00:12:55,820 在交易时段收盘时 301 00:12:55,820 --> 00:12:58,720 市场决定下降趋势会恢复吗 302 00:12:59,029 --> 00:13:00,269 还是会反转 303 00:13:00,269 --> 00:13:01,509 就像这里一样 304 00:13:01,509 --> 00:13:04,509 还是他会继续横盘到结束 305 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:11,980 在后续震荡区间和尾盘交易的课程中 306 00:13:11,980 --> 00:13:15,799 我们会更多的讲解收盘前会发生的种种情况 307 00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:21,240 还是欧元兑美元5分钟图 308 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:23,980 这里实际上有一个楔形底 309 00:13:23,980 --> 00:13:25,679 你能发现吗 310 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:31,700 三次下跌123 311 00:13:31,700 --> 00:13:33,080 尽管第二段下跌 312 00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:34,820 跌破了连接一和三的线 313 00:13:34,820 --> 00:13:37,279 这也是常见的情况 314 00:13:38,578 --> 00:13:40,158 在下降趋势的后期 315 00:13:40,158 --> 00:13:42,379 持续了20~30根K线后 316 00:13:42,379 --> 00:13:44,778 这里实际上已经下跌了70多根K线 317 00:13:44,778 --> 00:13:46,938 市场进入一个三角形 318 00:13:47,779 --> 00:13:50,179 三角形很少是完美的 319 00:13:50,179 --> 00:13:53,639 只是其中一种画法高点第二推 320 00:13:53,639 --> 00:13:56,980 第三推二略微高于一 321 00:13:56,980 --> 00:13:59,139 但这并不重要 322 00:13:59,139 --> 00:14:00,120 总的来说 323 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:01,840 价格波动的幅度在收窄 324 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:04,899 价格进入了一个更窄的窄震荡区间 325 00:14:05,789 --> 00:14:09,830 至少有三次上推或下推123 326 00:14:09,830 --> 00:14:13,068 或者你可以说是这三推123 327 00:14:13,068 --> 00:14:15,328 多头突破失败了又跌回来 328 00:14:15,328 --> 00:14:16,869 你可以重新开始计数 329 00:14:16,869 --> 00:14:19,210 比如123 330 00:14:19,210 --> 00:14:20,250 不管怎么数 331 00:14:20,250 --> 00:14:21,750 这是一个突破模式 332 00:14:21,750 --> 00:14:24,370 你在趋势的后期看到三角形的时候 333 00:14:24,370 --> 00:14:26,490 左边是下降趋势 334 00:14:26,779 --> 00:14:29,039 然后趋势恢复下跌 335 00:14:29,039 --> 00:14:33,629 你要知道有60%至70的概率 336 00:14:33,870 --> 00:14:35,370 三角形是末端雄起 337 00:14:35,370 --> 00:14:36,389 它会导致反转 338 00:14:36,389 --> 00:14:37,250 就像这里一样 339 00:14:37,250 --> 00:14:40,190 并且这里本来就有大的楔形体结构 340 00:14:40,190 --> 00:14:44,210 可能会有至少两段式的上涨或者横盘一回调 341 00:14:44,210 --> 00:14:46,100 二三 342 00:14:48,779 --> 00:14:53,340 最后我们来讲一讲宽通道中的趋势 343 00:14:57,419 --> 00:14:59,080 当我们处于下降趋势中 344 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:00,870 并且有大幅反弹时 345 00:15:00,870 --> 00:15:04,110 但总体上高点和低点仍然在降低 346 00:15:04,110 --> 00:15:06,309 这就是一个阶梯式的下跌 347 00:15:06,309 --> 00:15:08,610 这里空头突破 348 00:15:08,610 --> 00:15:10,909 但反弹高于突破点 349 00:15:10,909 --> 00:15:12,490 这里是突破点 350 00:15:12,490 --> 00:15:15,919 反弹高于突破点 351 00:15:16,759 --> 00:15:17,960 继续下跌 352 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:19,580 这里是突破点 353 00:15:19,580 --> 00:15:22,460 反弹又超过了突破点 354 00:15:22,460 --> 00:15:24,279 这里是另一个突破 355 00:15:24,279 --> 00:15:27,080 然后反弹回到了突破点的上方 356 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:30,259 当反弹与突破点重叠时 357 00:15:30,620 --> 00:15:32,000 我称之为阶梯模式 358 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:34,220 市场正在阶梯式下跌 359 00:15:36,899 --> 00:15:38,879 反弹高于突破点 360 00:15:38,879 --> 00:15:41,620 反弹高于突破点 361 00:15:41,779 --> 00:15:43,820 所以这是阶梯式下跌 362 00:15:43,820 --> 00:15:46,110 识别出这一点很重要 363 00:15:46,110 --> 00:15:48,889 这告诉你在前期低点挂单买入的多头 364 00:15:48,889 --> 00:15:51,070 他们逢低买入更多可以赚到钱 365 00:15:51,070 --> 00:15:53,309 这是一个弱趋势的信号 366 00:15:53,740 --> 00:15:56,299 注逆势交易者可以赚到钱 367 00:15:56,299 --> 00:15:57,840 说明趋势有问题 368 00:15:57,840 --> 00:16:02,019 而且说明市场可能即将进入震荡区间 369 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:05,940 宽通道的下降趋势中 370 00:16:05,940 --> 00:16:10,200 总是有20或30根K线处于震荡区间里面 371 00:16:10,299 --> 00:16:12,159 有时当你看着这个K线图 372 00:16:12,159 --> 00:16:14,179 你不确定市场是在下降趋势中 373 00:16:14,179 --> 00:16:15,440 还是在震荡区间中 374 00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:19,379 或者下降趋势是否已经结束并转变为震荡区间 375 00:16:22,059 --> 00:16:25,220 当你不确定它是否仍然是一个下降趋势时 376 00:16:25,220 --> 00:16:27,379 到底是下降通道还是震荡区间 377 00:16:27,379 --> 00:16:28,759 这并不重要 378 00:16:28,759 --> 00:16:30,600 你就按照震荡区间的方式去交易 379 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:31,820 他高抛低吸赚快钱 380 00:16:31,820 --> 00:16:33,840 做包头皮交易啊 381 00:16:33,940 --> 00:16:35,879 你应该逢低买入 382 00:16:35,879 --> 00:16:37,639 买在底部的1/3 383 00:16:37,639 --> 00:16:40,259 并在中间赚快钱离场 384 00:16:40,419 --> 00:16:42,320 涨上去又再次开始下跌时 385 00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:43,789 你开仓做空 386 00:16:43,789 --> 00:16:46,190 由于市场仍然处于下降趋势中 387 00:16:46,190 --> 00:16:48,210 你可以进行做空的波段交易 388 00:16:48,210 --> 00:16:49,090 但一般来说 389 00:16:49,090 --> 00:16:52,389 很多交易者更愿意做剥头皮交易 390 00:16:52,769 --> 00:16:55,409 因为他们不确定震荡区间是否会持续 391 00:16:55,409 --> 00:16:56,230 更多根K线 392 00:16:56,230 --> 00:16:57,169 他们宁愿做空 393 00:16:57,169 --> 00:16:59,370 然后快速止盈做空包头皮 394 00:16:59,370 --> 00:17:01,129 做空包头皮 395 00:17:07,339 --> 00:17:10,359 很多时候当市场像这样跌下来 396 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:11,900 然后进入震荡区间 397 00:17:11,900 --> 00:17:13,460 你不确定到底发生了什么 398 00:17:13,460 --> 00:17:14,660 这是一个楔形吗 399 00:17:14,660 --> 00:17:16,818 123 400 00:17:16,818 --> 00:17:19,659 这是一个低点降低的大反转模式吗 401 00:17:19,659 --> 00:17:21,898 市场在形成一个震荡区间吗 402 00:17:21,898 --> 00:17:24,380 但是高点和低点都在降低 403 00:17:24,380 --> 00:17:26,099 答案是都有可能 404 00:17:26,099 --> 00:17:28,539 显然市场依旧处于下降趋势中 405 00:17:28,539 --> 00:17:30,589 显然在震荡区间中 406 00:17:30,589 --> 00:17:32,289 显然在形成一个新形底 407 00:17:32,289 --> 00:17:35,579 也是低点降低的大反转模式啊 408 00:17:38,940 --> 00:17:41,180 因为市场仍然在下降趋势中 409 00:17:41,180 --> 00:17:42,660 很多交易者会做空 410 00:17:42,660 --> 00:17:46,429 然后至少持有一部分仓位做波段交易 411 00:17:46,709 --> 00:17:47,749 对于多头来说 412 00:17:47,749 --> 00:17:49,269 市场还没有进入上涨趋势 413 00:17:49,269 --> 00:17:51,949 所以多头都只做包头皮交易 414 00:17:55,420 --> 00:17:58,400 逆势交易者这里趋势是向下的 415 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:02,460 所以逆势交易者是买入做多的一方 416 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:04,700 毕竟处于下降趋势 417 00:18:04,700 --> 00:18:06,559 所以当你买入做多时 418 00:18:06,559 --> 00:18:09,000 你只是为了做一笔剥头皮交易 419 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:12,950 交易者会在通道上演附近做空啊 420 00:18:12,950 --> 00:18:15,990 通道很少是精确的 421 00:18:15,990 --> 00:18:18,170 有时在电视上或网络上 422 00:18:18,170 --> 00:18:20,309 你会看到完美的平行通道 423 00:18:20,309 --> 00:18:22,369 但大部分没有这么精确 424 00:18:22,369 --> 00:18:24,138 通道很少是精确的 425 00:18:24,138 --> 00:18:27,529 你必须不断调整通道线啊 426 00:18:28,289 --> 00:18:29,109 任何时候 427 00:18:29,109 --> 00:18:31,049 当市场接近通道的上沿 428 00:18:31,049 --> 00:18:33,619 要寻找反转向下的做空机会 429 00:18:33,900 --> 00:18:35,740 市场仍然处于下降趋势中 430 00:18:35,740 --> 00:18:38,759 所以从新低买入压住反转向上更加次要一些 431 00:18:38,759 --> 00:18:42,250 尽管当交易者看到很多双向的价格行为 432 00:18:42,450 --> 00:18:45,029 并且他们发现反弹都超过了突破点 433 00:18:45,029 --> 00:18:47,170 很多交易者会从新的低点开始买入 434 00:18:47,170 --> 00:18:49,009 做剥头皮交易 435 00:18:53,099 --> 00:18:55,180 三次下跌123 436 00:18:56,259 --> 00:18:58,420 同时也是空头第二次跌破前期低点失败 437 00:18:58,420 --> 00:19:00,079 及多投的第二买入信号 438 00:19:00,079 --> 00:19:02,019 这在震荡区间中常见 439 00:19:02,019 --> 00:19:03,980 所以一些多头会买入做多 440 00:19:03,980 --> 00:19:05,839 至少做一笔剥头皮交易 441 00:19:05,839 --> 00:19:06,640 双顶熊奇 442 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:08,859 多头突破了双顶 443 00:19:08,859 --> 00:19:11,460 你可以说这是头肩底 444 00:19:11,460 --> 00:19:13,750 左肩头右肩 445 00:19:13,750 --> 00:19:17,450 然而市场仍然处于下降趋势中 446 00:19:17,450 --> 00:19:20,460 你必须考虑到头突破会失败的可能性 447 00:19:20,700 --> 00:19:22,980 双顶被向上突破失败 448 00:19:22,980 --> 00:19:25,750 这是楔形的一种变体 449 00:19:25,950 --> 00:19:29,329 三次上涨一和二是双顶雄起 450 00:19:29,329 --> 00:19:32,410 三是这个失败的突破 451 00:19:32,490 --> 00:19:33,410 在我看来 452 00:19:33,410 --> 00:19:35,369 它和西行雄起一样 453 00:19:35,369 --> 00:19:38,049 我预计至少会有几个下跌的波段或者横盘 454 00:19:38,049 --> 00:19:40,210 一反弹二 455 00:19:42,279 --> 00:19:44,000 这是合理的做空机会 456 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:45,900 突破双顶熊奇失败 457 00:19:45,900 --> 00:19:48,599 他也是下降趋势中降低的高点 458 00:19:48,599 --> 00:19:50,359 非常不错的做空信号 459 00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:51,170 K 460 00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:56,519 此时交易者重新划通道线 461 00:19:57,049 --> 00:19:58,609 再次尝试向上突破 462 00:19:58,609 --> 00:19:59,890 又反转向下 463 00:19:59,890 --> 00:20:01,650 即使他是阳线空投 464 00:20:01,650 --> 00:20:02,930 也会在它的低点下方 465 00:20:02,930 --> 00:20:06,204 迈出下降通道中的双顶雄起 466 00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:12,420 新低阶梯式下跌 467 00:20:12,420 --> 00:20:13,119 多头买入 468 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:13,960 做多压注反转 469 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:15,960 或者他们在前期的低点挂单买入 470 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:18,910 然后他们愿意在下方加仓买入更多 471 00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:20,099 再一次强调 472 00:20:20,099 --> 00:20:23,460 当你在下降趋势中或在震荡区间中买入做多时 473 00:20:23,460 --> 00:20:25,680 最好只做包头皮交易 474 00:20:27,039 --> 00:20:29,500 每次反转向下后重新划线 475 00:20:29,500 --> 00:20:32,539 然后当价格测试新的通道线时 476 00:20:32,539 --> 00:20:37,259 交易者会再次寻找反转向下的做空机会啊 477 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:41,259 每次出现了新的高点 478 00:20:41,259 --> 00:20:42,660 你就画一条新的通道线 479 00:20:42,660 --> 00:20:44,849 观察价格在碰到那条线之后的行为 480 00:20:44,849 --> 00:20:50,000 然后在这里或那里反转向下时卖出做空啊 481 00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:57,539 底部你可以这样划线 482 00:20:57,539 --> 00:20:59,019 也可以那样划线 483 00:20:59,019 --> 00:21:03,279 或者你可以说宽下降通道中价格创了新低 484 00:21:03,279 --> 00:21:05,359 交易者应该买入压注反转向上 485 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:07,200 或者他们在前期低点挂单买入 486 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:09,720 然后加仓做包头皮交易 487 00:21:14,099 --> 00:21:17,380 空投他们也会在价格反弹到上一个下跌波段的 488 00:21:17,380 --> 00:21:19,059 当中时卖出 489 00:21:19,509 --> 00:21:21,230 这是一个下跌波段 490 00:21:21,230 --> 00:21:23,609 这是下跌波段的中间1/3 491 00:21:23,609 --> 00:21:25,890 空头会在中间1/3开仓卖出 492 00:21:25,890 --> 00:21:28,849 比如价格反弹到中间1/3 493 00:21:28,849 --> 00:21:31,250 然后出现了一个反转向下的阴线 494 00:21:31,250 --> 00:21:35,119 于是空投会在它的下方开仓做空啊 495 00:21:36,259 --> 00:21:39,420 另一个下跌波段从这里或这里开始 496 00:21:39,420 --> 00:21:40,960 这是中间1/3 497 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:44,019 空头会在中间1/3的某处开仓卖出 498 00:21:44,019 --> 00:21:46,710 如果他们看到价格开始反转向下的话 499 00:21:46,710 --> 00:21:48,069 价格向上反弹 500 00:21:48,069 --> 00:21:50,980 空头在某根K线的低点下方卖出 501 00:21:50,980 --> 00:21:53,180 压住反弹到中间1/3 502 00:21:53,180 --> 00:21:56,140 只不过是下降趋势中又一个降低的高点 503 00:21:56,140 --> 00:21:58,099 高点不断降低 504 00:21:59,059 --> 00:22:00,299 这里也是一样 505 00:22:00,299 --> 00:22:01,680 最近的下跌波段 506 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:05,279 空头看到价格反弹到中间1/3的某个地方 507 00:22:05,279 --> 00:22:06,599 然后他们开仓做空 508 00:22:06,599 --> 00:22:07,579 压住反转向下 509 00:22:07,579 --> 00:22:08,920 期待下降趋势恢复 510 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:10,920 价格继续创新低 511 00:22:11,059 --> 00:22:14,140 空投会在前期低点处止盈 512 00:22:14,460 --> 00:22:17,099 所以在这里做空的空投会在前期低点 513 00:22:17,099 --> 00:22:18,420 只赢至少一部分利润 514 00:22:18,420 --> 00:22:20,539 在这里做空的空投会在前期低点 515 00:22:20,539 --> 00:22:22,509 只赢至少一部分利润 516 00:22:22,509 --> 00:22:24,509 在这里做空的空投会在前期低点 517 00:22:24,509 --> 00:22:26,390 只赢至少一部分利润 518 00:22:30,180 --> 00:22:31,579 而逢低买入的多头 519 00:22:31,579 --> 00:22:33,339 他们会在空头开仓的地方止盈 520 00:22:33,339 --> 00:22:36,339 比如说前一段下跌的中间1/3处 521 00:22:37,089 --> 00:22:40,890 例如一个多头在前期低点挂现价买单 522 00:22:40,890 --> 00:22:42,329 他的买单成交了 523 00:22:42,329 --> 00:22:46,880 他会在中间1/3某处卖出包头皮赚快钱 524 00:22:47,039 --> 00:22:50,140 一种方法是在固定的距离或点数外面 525 00:22:50,140 --> 00:22:51,759 挂止盈的限价卖单 526 00:22:51,759 --> 00:22:55,640 或者在价格重新开始下跌的时候卖出止盈 527 00:22:57,660 --> 00:23:01,559 在这个低点买入的多头知道价格在下跌 528 00:23:01,559 --> 00:23:03,500 然而他有信心可以赚钱 529 00:23:03,500 --> 00:23:05,099 因为市场处于阶梯模式 530 00:23:05,099 --> 00:23:07,420 价格会回到这个突破点上方的 531 00:23:07,420 --> 00:23:10,539 所以在这里买入的多头会在下方加仓 532 00:23:10,539 --> 00:23:11,319 买入更多 533 00:23:11,319 --> 00:23:13,140 他们第二次买入的仓位 534 00:23:13,140 --> 00:23:15,690 至少是一笔包头皮交易的大小 535 00:23:15,690 --> 00:23:18,009 因为如果他继续像这样下跌 536 00:23:18,009 --> 00:23:21,409 很多人会在他们的第一次入场的地方止盈 537 00:23:21,409 --> 00:23:24,108 第一笔仓位打平加仓的部分赚钱 538 00:23:24,108 --> 00:23:27,170 所以他们会确保在下方加仓的仓位 539 00:23:27,170 --> 00:23:31,200 至少可以让他们赚到包头皮的利润啊 540 00:23:31,384 --> 00:23:33,140 所以在这里买入 541 00:23:33,140 --> 00:23:34,539 在下方买入更多 542 00:23:34,539 --> 00:23:37,599 然后在初始的买入点附近离场 543 00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:42,299 而空投他们在中间1/3的地方 544 00:23:42,299 --> 00:23:45,559 寻找反转向下时做空的机会 545 00:23:52,099 --> 00:23:53,579 这里突破了前期高点 546 00:23:53,579 --> 00:23:55,440 但很快回调到了突破点下方 547 00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:56,099 再次突破 548 00:23:56,099 --> 00:23:57,519 又回调到了突破点下方 549 00:23:57,519 --> 00:23:59,250 所以这是一个阶梯模式 550 00:23:59,250 --> 00:24:02,369 你注意到这个阶梯模式有什么特别之处吗 551 00:24:02,369 --> 00:24:05,109 第二次突破的高度从这个高点到那个高点 552 00:24:05,109 --> 00:24:06,150 比第一次突破 553 00:24:06,150 --> 00:24:09,650 从这个高点到那个高点的高度要更小 554 00:24:10,368 --> 00:24:12,848 所以阶梯在缩小 555 00:24:13,369 --> 00:24:17,390 说明多头对市场会继续上涨没有什么信心 556 00:24:17,390 --> 00:24:19,170 所以他们更快的止盈 557 00:24:19,170 --> 00:24:20,730 空投更有信心 558 00:24:20,730 --> 00:24:22,990 市场会演变成震荡区间 559 00:24:22,990 --> 00:24:26,839 所以他们更加急切地卖出啊 560 00:24:28,259 --> 00:24:31,380 这个突破的高度是两个tick 561 00:24:31,380 --> 00:24:33,579 而那个突破的高度只有一个tick 562 00:24:33,579 --> 00:24:34,500 这也是第三推 563 00:24:34,500 --> 00:24:36,059 上涨123 564 00:24:36,059 --> 00:24:38,019 所以是三推楔形顶 565 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:45,859 当你看到一个缩小的阶梯模式时 566 00:24:45,859 --> 00:24:48,500 你必须想到上涨通道可能即将结束 567 00:24:48,500 --> 00:24:51,659 并且市场将很快演变成一个震荡区间 568 00:24:51,659 --> 00:24:55,388 一旦跌破一个重要的低点 569 00:24:55,388 --> 00:25:00,229 那么低点抬高的上涨模式将不再完整 570 00:25:00,460 --> 00:25:02,559 如果市场不再形成更高的低点 571 00:25:02,559 --> 00:25:04,259 它就不再处于上涨趋势中 572 00:25:04,259 --> 00:25:05,779 它要么处于下降趋势中 573 00:25:05,779 --> 00:25:07,638 要么处于震荡区间中 574 00:25:07,638 --> 00:25:10,219 这个抛售并不是特别的强 575 00:25:10,219 --> 00:25:12,959 他没有连续的大阴线 576 00:25:13,269 --> 00:25:16,869 并且价格在那个重要低点的地方找到了支撑 577 00:25:16,869 --> 00:25:20,230 这更像是震荡区间中的一段下跌 578 00:25:20,349 --> 00:25:21,390 但不管怎么说 579 00:25:21,390 --> 00:25:24,190 这不再是一个上涨趋势 580 00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:30,119 这是缩小的下降阶梯 581 00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:33,400 第一次突破的高度是这么大 582 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:36,150 第二次突破的高度变小了 583 00:25:36,150 --> 00:25:38,549 接下来的每次突破幅度都更小 584 00:25:38,549 --> 00:25:40,549 说明空头在更快的止盈 585 00:25:40,549 --> 00:25:43,630 而多头越来越急切的买入 586 00:25:44,878 --> 00:25:47,798 这里突破了17个peace才反弹 587 00:25:48,838 --> 00:25:51,939 而在这里市场仅跌破前期低点 588 00:25:51,939 --> 00:25:54,569 六个peace就立刻反弹了 589 00:25:54,569 --> 00:25:58,890 最终变成了低点抬高的双底大反转 590 00:25:59,049 --> 00:26:00,190 头肩底 591 00:26:00,190 --> 00:26:05,779 左肩头右肩下跌动能的减少 592 00:26:05,779 --> 00:26:07,660 空头力量的减少 593 00:26:07,660 --> 00:26:11,180 意味着下降趋势即将结束 594 00:26:11,299 --> 00:26:14,319 并且市场可能会进入震荡区间 595 00:26:14,319 --> 00:26:15,960 甚至是上涨趋势 596 00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:18,859 一旦多头突破这样的重要高点 597 00:26:18,859 --> 00:26:21,279 它的后面价格强势跌破创新低 598 00:26:21,279 --> 00:26:22,680 所以它是重要的高点 599 00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:23,640 一旦它被突破 600 00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,099 市场就不再处于下降趋势 601 00:26:26,259 --> 00:26:27,619 它要么处于震荡区间 602 00:26:27,619 --> 00:26:28,900 要么处于上涨趋势中 603 00:26:28,900 --> 00:26:30,700 这个时候你可能想说哇 604 00:26:30,700 --> 00:26:32,839 反转呈上涨趋势了 605 00:26:32,839 --> 00:26:33,900 还不一定呢 606 00:26:33,900 --> 00:26:36,859 价格仍然在下降趋势的起跌点下方 607 00:26:36,859 --> 00:26:39,259 这可能只是震荡区间中的一段上涨 608 00:26:39,259 --> 00:26:40,220 但不管怎么说 609 00:26:40,220 --> 00:26:43,019 这不再是一个下降趋势 610 00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:52,380 这是欧元兑美元的日线图 611 00:26:52,380 --> 00:26:54,700 重要的低点不断抬高 612 00:26:54,700 --> 00:26:57,559 上涨趋势就会继续 613 00:27:01,940 --> 00:27:04,839 多头制造了一系列的更高的低点和更高的高点 614 00:27:04,839 --> 00:27:06,539 所以市场处于上涨趋势中 615 00:27:06,539 --> 00:27:08,409 但我们看到了非常深的回调 616 00:27:08,409 --> 00:27:10,308 一些回调的幅度非常大 617 00:27:10,308 --> 00:27:13,669 以至于交易者会认为市场暂时处于单边下跌 618 00:27:13,669 --> 00:27:15,949 或不再是单边上涨 619 00:27:16,229 --> 00:27:17,169 然而总的来说 620 00:27:17,169 --> 00:27:19,429 高点和低点还是在不断抬高的 621 00:27:19,429 --> 00:27:21,808 所以即使有时候下跌的回调 622 00:27:21,808 --> 00:27:24,848 足以让交易者认为市场暂时在单边下跌 623 00:27:24,848 --> 00:27:28,420 大的趋势是市场仍然在上涨通道中 624 00:27:28,420 --> 00:27:31,259 上涨通道中有非常深的回调 625 00:27:31,259 --> 00:27:33,839 或者说有非常强的下跌波段 626 00:27:33,839 --> 00:27:36,079 但是重要的低点还在抬高 627 00:27:36,079 --> 00:27:39,059 那么它就是一个宽上涨通道 628 00:27:44,740 --> 00:27:47,019 多头在等待价格回调到上涨波段的中间 629 00:27:47,019 --> 00:27:47,700 1/3 630 00:27:47,700 --> 00:27:50,220 然后他们会在中间1/3买入 631 00:27:50,220 --> 00:27:53,349 在价格重新反转向上时买入 632 00:27:53,470 --> 00:27:58,779 这个上涨波段回调到了它的中间1/3 633 00:27:58,779 --> 00:28:00,619 多头在这里寻找做多机会 634 00:28:00,619 --> 00:28:04,440 又一个上涨波段回调到了他的中间1/3 635 00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:07,900 多头会在这里寻找买入的机会 636 00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,000 如果交易者在阳线上方买入 637 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:13,599 或等两段式回调后再买入 638 00:28:13,599 --> 00:28:15,299 赚钱的概率会更高 639 00:28:15,299 --> 00:28:17,119 低段下跌反弹 640 00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:21,440 第二段下跌小双底小阳线 641 00:28:22,339 --> 00:28:24,940 在他的上方买入胜率更高 642 00:28:24,940 --> 00:28:26,039 两段式回调 643 00:28:26,039 --> 00:28:28,640 一反弹二看起来不明显 644 00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:30,920 但它确实是两段小的下跌 645 00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:33,630 然后一反弹二 646 00:28:33,710 --> 00:28:36,599 也许这已经是两段下跌了双底 647 00:28:36,599 --> 00:28:38,720 所以他可能是第一段下跌 648 00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:39,579 涨到新高 649 00:28:39,579 --> 00:28:41,359 新高也是回调的一部分 650 00:28:41,359 --> 00:28:43,119 两段是下跌 651 00:28:43,339 --> 00:28:44,160 不管怎么看 652 00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:47,319 这是中间1/3的双底多头会买入反转向上 653 00:28:47,319 --> 00:28:49,900 微型双底多头会买入压住反转上涨 654 00:28:49,900 --> 00:28:54,079 新型扭起123多头汇买入压住反转上涨 655 00:28:54,079 --> 00:28:57,759 价格在中间1/3多头汇买入压住反转上涨 656 00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:04,480 然后他们会在新高止盈 657 00:29:04,710 --> 00:29:06,529 你知道他们在这么做 658 00:29:06,529 --> 00:29:09,029 因为市场刚刚超过前期高点就下跌 659 00:29:09,029 --> 00:29:12,359 这说明交易者在卖出多头 660 00:29:12,359 --> 00:29:13,220 卖出止盈 661 00:29:13,220 --> 00:29:15,720 空头开仓做空 662 00:29:16,730 --> 00:29:19,250 即使这里的突破很强劲 663 00:29:19,250 --> 00:29:21,309 但是看后面回调 664 00:29:21,309 --> 00:29:24,009 最终跌破了突破点 665 00:29:24,250 --> 00:29:27,670 这告诉我们可以开始在前期高点挂单做空 666 00:29:27,670 --> 00:29:29,369 使用较大的初始止损 667 00:29:29,369 --> 00:29:31,289 并且逢高加仓 668 00:29:34,420 --> 00:29:36,619 空投在新的高点做空包头皮 669 00:29:36,619 --> 00:29:38,640 这里他们可能加仓卖出更多 670 00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:40,900 等价格跌回第一次做空的入场点时 671 00:29:40,900 --> 00:29:42,019 第一笔仓位打平 672 00:29:42,019 --> 00:29:43,019 加仓的部分赚钱 673 00:29:43,019 --> 00:29:45,579 在这里价格到达前期高点后立即下跌 674 00:29:45,579 --> 00:29:47,160 所以唐可以轻松赚快钱 675 00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:51,680 在前一个上涨波段的中间1/3处止盈 676 00:29:55,660 --> 00:29:57,599 空投在这里做空继续上涨 677 00:29:57,599 --> 00:29:58,779 加仓卖出更多价格 678 00:29:58,779 --> 00:29:59,539 跌回去的时候 679 00:29:59,539 --> 00:30:00,539 第一笔仓位打平 680 00:30:01,539 --> 00:30:03,660 加仓的部分赚钱 681 00:30:07,559 --> 00:30:10,299 如果他们在前期高点挂单做空 682 00:30:10,299 --> 00:30:11,940 然后价格立刻下跌 683 00:30:11,940 --> 00:30:15,440 他们就在回调到中间1/3的时候止盈 684 00:30:16,059 --> 00:30:17,299 这里也是一样 685 00:30:17,299 --> 00:30:19,579 卖出做空没有突破的足够远 686 00:30:19,579 --> 00:30:21,599 所以不需要加仓 687 00:30:21,599 --> 00:30:23,680 然后回调到了中间1/3 688 00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,319 空头止盈离场啊 689 00:30:30,119 --> 00:30:32,619 这节课我讲了三个类型的趋势 690 00:30:32,619 --> 00:30:35,299 首先是从开盘开始的趋势 691 00:30:35,299 --> 00:30:37,660 也就是从交易时段的第一 692 00:30:37,660 --> 00:30:40,460 第二或第三根K线开始的趋势 693 00:30:40,460 --> 00:30:42,940 然后我讲了震荡趋势 694 00:30:42,940 --> 00:30:45,279 在交易时段的早期有一个震荡区间 695 00:30:45,279 --> 00:30:46,220 但这个震荡区间 696 00:30:46,220 --> 00:30:48,579 大约只有平均日内波动幅度的一半左右 697 00:30:48,579 --> 00:30:51,099 所以交易者预期区间会翻倍 698 00:30:51,609 --> 00:30:53,990 最后我谈到了宽通道 699 00:30:53,990 --> 00:30:56,529 比如一个宽上涨通道 700 00:30:56,529 --> 00:30:57,990 有深度回调 701 00:30:57,990 --> 00:30:59,750 有时下跌很强劲 702 00:30:59,750 --> 00:31:03,480 甚至让市场短暂的处于单边下跌 703 00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:05,339 但低点总是在抬高 704 00:31:05,339 --> 00:31:06,640 并且反转向上 705 00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:09,880 制造出一系列更高的高点和低点 706 00:31:10,119 --> 00:31:12,839 因此市场在一个宽上涨通道中 707 00:31:12,839 --> 00:31:15,559 这是上涨趋势的一种类型 708 00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:19,380 我是阿尔布鲁克斯 709 00:31:19,380 --> 00:31:22,460 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程趋势的第四节课 710 00:31:22,460 --> 00:31:24,000 到这里就讲完了
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