野村证券-微博（WB.OQ）：广告业务前景艰难-260530

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欢迎来到本期的深度解析

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今天咱们要聊点非常有意思的

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也门儿欠平

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刚刚发布的一份关于微博的分析师报告

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如果你平时比较关注咱们国内的科技圈

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或者社交媒体的动态

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那今天的内容你绝对不想错过

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简单来说

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微博现在正处在一个非常尴尬的十字路口

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一边是冷得让人发抖的广告寒冬

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另一边又是不得不硬着头皮上的AI转型

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咱们今天呢就抛开那些枯燥的数据

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一起来看看这家社交巨头

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现在到底在经历着怎么样的挣扎

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好咱们直接进入正题

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首先来看这个相当亮眼的数字

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4.21亿美元

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这是微博第一季度的营收

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算下来同增长了6%

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有意思的是

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这个数字简直跟彭博社之前的共识预期分布差

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单看表面的话

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这开局可以说走得非常稳对吧

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不仅营收达标了

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而且还在正向增长

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对于微博这样已经非常成熟的社交平台来说

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这绝对算是一份相当拿得出手的答卷了

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但这就引出了咱们今天

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这一次解读的核心谜题了

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你可能会想

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既然第一季度财报这么好

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形势一片大好

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那股价应该涨对吧

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然而并没有

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华尔街那边反手就是一个大幅下调

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直接把微博的目标价砍到了8.10美元

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这就很奇怪了呀

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你想想

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如果微博刚打了一场胜仗

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业绩这么强劲

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那些精明的分析师们

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凭什么要削减对它的估值预期呢

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这背后肯定藏着什么

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市场第一眼没看出来的危机

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咱们先来看看第一部分

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这就是我们说的第一季度财报悖论

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明明是好消息

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市场反应却出奇的冷淡

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你看微博的营业利润率直接超出了华尔街预期

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整整3.5个百分点

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乍一听是不是觉得特别猛

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感觉微博的赚钱能力突然一下突飞猛进了对吧

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但其实咱们得透过现象看本质

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分析师在报告里就说了

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这超预期的利润

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其实真不是因为核心业务有多么爆炸的增长

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说白了他主要是因为公司的一般及行政费用

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突然断崖式的跌

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跌了75个百分点

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而之所以跌这么多

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主要是因为他们收回了一笔坏账

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其实也就是说啊

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这只是一次账面上的意外之财

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是一次性的利好

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而不是说它本身的业务突然迎来了什么大爆发

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好了

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这就解释了为什么

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尽管微博在账面上打了一个漂亮的短期翻身仗

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野村证券的分析师们

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却依然保持着那种怎么说呢

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异乎寻常的谨慎

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就像他们在报告里直接写到的

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维持中性评级

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目标价下调至8.10美元

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他们可是一点没手软

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把原先9.70美元的目标价

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直接砍掉了一大截

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很显然

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分析师们心里门儿清

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如果把那些一次性的意外之财抛开不谈

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微博未来的真正盈利能力

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其实正面临着非常严峻的考验

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那么考验究竟在哪儿呢

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我们进入第二部分

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看看这个越来越艰难的广告市场

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以及那些不再流动的资金

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现在啊这张图上非常有意思的一点是

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它非常直观地展现了微薄的收入构成

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你看广告和营收收入

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几乎包揽了总营收的绝大部分

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江山秋秋好比一家餐厅

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他全指望着一道招牌菜来赚钱

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已让外面的食客口味变了

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或者大家钱包变扁了

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这家餐厅的抗风险能力可以说是非常脆弱的

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对于微博来说

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这意味着什么呢

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意味着只要整个宏观广告市场稍微打个喷嚏

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微博的核心基本盘立马就会重感冒

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那么具体是哪些平时花钱大方的行业

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现在开始勒紧裤腰带了呢

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主要有三个金主陷入了困境

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首先是汽车行业

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微博管理层说

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目前看着还行

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但其实车企们正面临着

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整体销量下滑的巨大压力

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以后的广告预算随时都可能被看

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其次是智能手机行业

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现在手机圈卷得有多厉害

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大家都知道价格战打得飞起

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所以他们在打广告这事上变得极其谨慎

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最后还有游戏行业

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以前这也是个金猪粑粑

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但因为现在大厂发的新游戏变少了

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这个广告大户现在也显得非常疲软

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就是因为综合了这几个因素

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也随证券把微博下一财年的营收增长预测

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直接从原来的九趴狠狠砍到了只有3%

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了解了广告市场的寒气

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咱们再来看看第三部分

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也就是AI带来的挤压

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或者咱们可以叫他创新的代价

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咱们先来梳理一下

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微博最近动作频频的技术大升级

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他们现在可以说是押宝在AI上了

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主要有三大举措

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第一搞了AI驱动的内容创作工具

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帮大维和创作者们更快地生产内容

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第二正在大力推AI生成的视频功能

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第三把传统的搜索功能也升级成了AI驱动

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你别说这些绝对都是目前最紧跟时代潮流的

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婴儿技术

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目的也很明确

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就是要想方设法留住用户

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提升体验

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但是呢问题来了

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这就是典型的创新的代价

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微博内部的数据其实挺好看的

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用户的代币消耗量很高

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这说明什么

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说明大家觉得新鲜

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确实都在积极用这些酷炫的AI功能

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不过坎坷的现实是

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这些功能目前想变现太早了

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简单说就是赚了吆喝没赚着买卖流量是有了

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但一分真金白银还没收回来

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可是要知道AI的研发呀

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算力啊

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这些可都是每天都在实打实烧钱的

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这就直接变成了一个沉重的财务包袱

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所以最关键的一点来了

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当你把一个正在走下坡路的疲软广告市场

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和一个烧钱极快

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又暂时无法变现的AI投资项目放在一起时

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财务上的现实就会变得相当骨感

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你看分析师预测

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微博下一财年

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非美国通用会计准则下的营业利润

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将会出现惊人的13%的下滑

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没错13%

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这说明什么

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说明新技术的投入不仅没能填补广告收入变少

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留下的大窟窿

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反而还把本来就不多的利润空间

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给进一步吃掉了

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咱们总结一下

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微博现在其实就是被夹在中间

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两头受气

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头顶上是低迷的广告市场

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死死压住了营收的天花板

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脚底下昂贵的AI开发成本

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又像一块巨石一样拉扯的公司的底线

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这就是分析师们整天挂在嘴边的

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所谓利润率收缩

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野农证券算得很清楚

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微博的核心利润率将被硬生生挤压掉

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多达4.8个百分点

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坦白讲

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这就是典型的腹背受敌

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那么这也自然而然地把我们带到了第四部分

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大幅削减的预期与估值

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咱们接着往下看

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看看这些硬数据最后是怎么滚雪球的

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根据野农家证券对下一财年的最新调整

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微博的营收预期被砍掉了5%

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非美国通用会计准则下的营业利润

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下调了9%

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最夸张的是

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净利润预期下调幅度直接飙到了16%

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你看这一连串触目惊心的符号

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其实就是用最冷冰冰的数字量化了

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咱们刚才说的广告下滑

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加上AI挤压所带来的连锁反应

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当然了

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这种悲观的情绪也早就反映在了历史骨架上了

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大家看相比于纳斯达克综合指数的大盘

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微摩的走势一直显得比较挣扎

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不过有一点咱们得说清楚

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野挪车劝降鬼出8.10美元

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这个新目标价

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其实并不是因为他们觉得微博彻底不行了

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实际上他们给出的市盈率

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估值倍数依然保持在六倍

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这没有变

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也就是说

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分析师并没有刻意去打压微博的估值体系

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纯粹是因为预期的那个利润基数

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缩水的太厉害了

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这目标价可不就跟着水上沉低了吗

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好了到了咱们的最后一部分

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未来的风险和今天的核心要点

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在报告的最后

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分析师非常客观地给我们画了几个

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未来需要盯紧的重点

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首先是咱们都希望看到的上行风险

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万一宏观广告市场突然回暖了

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复苏的比大家想的都快

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那微薄的业绩和股价肯定能打个漂亮的翻身仗

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但话说回来

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下行风险也绝对不能掉以轻心

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一方面是关于用户生成内容的监管和审查环境

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如果政策收紧

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可能会影响到平台对用户的吸引力

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另一方面

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也就是老生常谈的

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其他那些新型社交平台的竞争实在太激烈了

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这把达摩克里斯之剑可一直悬在微博头顶上的

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所以在咱们理清了所有这些硬核的逻

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辑和数据之后

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我想把这个终极问题留给大家来思考

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在广告市场真正迎来了复苏的春风之前

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微博这场砸了重金的AI赌局

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最终真的能带来实质性的回报吗

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他是会对短期的巨额成本彻底压垮

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还是能借着AI这等风涅槃重生呢

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说实话

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这是一个悬念拉满的商业博弈

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非常感谢大家的陪伴

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微博后续的表现

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绝对值得我们在下个财报季继续紧盯

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咱们下期深度解析

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不见不散

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