【Financial Education】中东油价vs美联储，谁才是杀跌真凶？深度复盘Tom Lee观点

1
00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:01,120
松饼

2
00:00:01,120 --> 00:00:01,800
他们正在翻转它们

3
00:00:01,800 --> 00:00:02,520
他们继续翻转它们

4
00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:03,200
他们继续翻转它们

5
00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:04,620
他们不停地到处翻转

6
00:00:04,620 --> 00:00:07,080
没人知道这个市场何时会暴跌

7
00:00:07,080 --> 00:00:09,339
下一刻又似乎要复苏了

8
00:00:09,339 --> 00:00:10,880
这里即将出现大幅波动

9
00:00:10,880 --> 00:00:12,099
接下来我要详细解释

10
00:00:12,099 --> 00:00:12,740
接下来会发生什么

11
00:00:12,740 --> 00:00:13,759
为什么会发生

12
00:00:13,759 --> 00:00:14,519
这类事情

13
00:00:14,519 --> 00:00:15,240
所以我们进入正题

14
00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:16,280
就在本视频开头

15
00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:18,739
我还要逐一介绍所有股票

16
00:00:18,739 --> 00:00:20,620
我持有这些股票

17
00:00:20,620 --> 00:00:20,859
好的

18
00:00:20,859 --> 00:00:22,960
我们马上在视频开头讨论

19
00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:24,460
完成这部分后

20
00:00:24,460 --> 00:00:25,379
我想回应这个视频

21
00:00:25,379 --> 00:00:28,888
因某公司报告出现股票飙升

22
00:00:28,888 --> 00:00:31,489
我们称其为这里的浪潮行情

23
00:00:31,489 --> 00:00:32,209
如何交易

24
00:00:32,209 --> 00:00:33,299
期待对此进行分析

25
00:00:33,299 --> 00:00:34,600
然后我们将回应这个

26
00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:35,060
汤姆·李

27
00:00:35,060 --> 00:00:35,859
刚刚在CNBC出镜

28
00:00:35,859 --> 00:00:36,539
几小时前

29
00:00:36,539 --> 00:00:38,140
不知为何未发布视频

30
00:00:38,140 --> 00:00:40,259
我们将听取音频版内容

31
00:00:40,259 --> 00:00:43,329
汤姆·李分析市场走势原因

32
00:00:43,329 --> 00:00:44,350
这非常有趣

33
00:00:44,350 --> 00:00:45,109
嗯

34
00:00:45,109 --> 00:00:46,390
我们来讨论这些内容

35
00:00:46,390 --> 00:00:47,850
感谢大家一如既往的支持

36
00:00:47,850 --> 00:00:48,890
非常感谢你们的到来

37
00:00:48,890 --> 00:00:49,649
所有戏剧性事件

38
00:00:49,649 --> 00:00:52,469
所有精彩内容 一件一件 我需要你们

39
00:00:52,469 --> 00:00:54,570
请帮忙点个赞

40
00:00:54,570 --> 00:00:56,130
这对我来说意义重大

41
00:00:56,130 --> 00:00:57,770
点击那个点赞按钮

42
00:00:57,770 --> 00:00:58,619
让它亮起来

43
00:00:58,619 --> 00:00:59,500
另外

44
00:00:59,500 --> 00:01:00,600
请订阅频道

45
00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:02,700
我会持续更新市场动态

46
00:01:02,700 --> 00:01:03,780
所有市场动向

47
00:01:03,780 --> 00:01:04,859
我的观点

48
00:01:04,859 --> 00:01:05,400
我正在买入的标的

49
00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:07,379
一如既往的所有精彩内容

50
00:01:07,379 --> 00:01:10,370
此外下方置顶评论今日

51
00:01:10,370 --> 00:01:12,409
这是我第一次宣布这件事

52
00:01:12,409 --> 00:01:14,549
我们要迎来一个巨大的愚人节活动

53
00:01:14,549 --> 00:01:18,239
不要在thousandxstocks.com上搞满减促销

54
00:01:18,239 --> 00:01:21,900
相信大家平时在视频里经常看到我使用这款软件

55
00:01:21,900 --> 00:01:22,959
这是高级软件

56
00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:25,099
我用来做投资决策

57
00:01:25,099 --> 00:01:29,099
如果你想获取完整产品线

58
00:01:29,099 --> 00:01:31,290
在thousandx下方留言

59
00:01:31,290 --> 00:01:34,140
点击链接输入邮箱或手机号

60
00:01:34,140 --> 00:01:35,459
我们可以通过邮件发送交易信息

61
00:01:35,459 --> 00:01:36,420
当它在4月1日下架时

62
00:01:36,420 --> 00:01:37,379
仅限一天活动

63
00:01:37,379 --> 00:01:38,579
顺便说这是唯一一次促销

64
00:01:38,579 --> 00:01:39,780
实际上只有这一天

65
00:01:39,780 --> 00:01:42,099
所以我们可以通过邮件发送

66
00:01:42,099 --> 00:01:43,469
或者通过短信发送

67
00:01:43,469 --> 00:01:44,730
无论你选择哪种接收方式

68
00:01:44,730 --> 00:01:45,430
你可以接收

69
00:01:45,430 --> 00:01:45,670
好的

70
00:01:45,670 --> 00:01:47,349
这将是一场巨大的促销活动

71
00:01:47,349 --> 00:01:49,890
千禧x很久都不会再有促销了

72
00:01:49,890 --> 00:01:50,849
请记住这一点

73
00:01:50,849 --> 00:01:52,530
好的各位

74
00:01:52,530 --> 00:01:53,750
所以啊

75
00:01:53,750 --> 00:01:55,049
让我们谈谈

76
00:01:55,049 --> 00:01:57,030
让我们谈谈我持有的每只股票

77
00:01:57,030 --> 00:01:59,870
然后讨论市场走势

78
00:01:59,870 --> 00:02:02,349
接下来从这里分析市场动向

79
00:02:02,349 --> 00:02:03,250
以及即将发生的重大行情

80
00:02:03,250 --> 00:02:03,390
好的

81
00:02:03,390 --> 00:02:04,409
这非常戏剧性

82
00:02:04,409 --> 00:02:06,590
首先看顶部

83
00:02:06,590 --> 00:02:08,909
Honest今日股价突破七美元

84
00:02:08,909 --> 00:02:10,539
注意Honest

85
00:02:10,539 --> 00:02:12,039
在我看来今年将突破五美元

86
00:02:12,039 --> 00:02:12,979
加上更多涨幅

87
00:02:12,979 --> 00:02:14,479
无论市场如何

88
00:02:14,479 --> 00:02:16,280
我对Honest非常有信心

89
00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:17,879
各项数据都在向正确方向发展

90
00:02:17,879 --> 00:02:20,240
你会看到越来越多的人加入这支股票

91
00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:21,340
随着年份推进

92
00:02:21,340 --> 00:02:22,360
Palantir

93
00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:25,460
Palantir正如我之前所说

94
00:02:25,460 --> 00:02:26,599
Palantir是一只股票

95
00:02:26,599 --> 00:02:29,500
长期在1到25及200区间徘徊

96
00:02:29,500 --> 00:02:32,259
我认为它会长期保持这个区间

97
00:02:32,259 --> 00:02:33,699
当市场看涨时

98
00:02:33,699 --> 00:02:35,579
人们会推高至200区间

99
00:02:35,579 --> 00:02:36,979
当市场看跌时

100
00:02:36,979 --> 00:02:37,419
Palantir

101
00:02:37,419 --> 00:02:37,838
他们肯定会

102
00:02:37,838 --> 00:02:39,719
可能会跌到大约125美元

103
00:02:39,719 --> 00:02:44,479
所以就像这样，Palantir应该会在相当长一段时间内保持这个水平

104
00:02:44,479 --> 00:02:46,919
至少在我看来，我可能说错了，对吧

105
00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:48,759
我仍然持有1000股，大概一英镑左右

106
00:02:48,759 --> 00:02:50,439
实际上技术上略超1000股

107
00:02:50,439 --> 00:02:51,599
如果它不下跌我会很高兴

108
00:02:51,599 --> 00:02:52,699
不过啊

109
00:02:52,699 --> 00:02:55,819
我去年卖掉几乎所有Palantir的原因

110
00:02:55,819 --> 00:02:57,379
现在只持有约1000股

111
00:02:57,379 --> 00:02:58,099
因为我相当有信心

112
00:02:58,099 --> 00:03:00,780
它将在很长一段时间内保持区间震荡

113
00:03:00,780 --> 00:03:01,699
Shopify

114
00:03:01,699 --> 00:03:02,099
呃

115
00:03:02,099 --> 00:03:06,270
这是整个股市中最被低估的伟大公司之一

116
00:03:06,270 --> 00:03:07,030
在我看来

117
00:03:07,030 --> 00:03:09,509
今天这只股上涨了约4%

118
00:03:09,509 --> 00:03:10,710
他们的增长速度非常惊人

119
00:03:10,710 --> 00:03:13,370
这种增长还会持续相当长一段时间

120
00:03:14,368 --> 00:03:16,929
这只股目前表现疲软

121
00:03:16,929 --> 00:03:17,449
你知道的

122
00:03:17,449 --> 00:03:20,489
自从它暴跌到39或40美元以来

123
00:03:20,489 --> 00:03:22,319
这只股毫无起色

124
00:03:22,319 --> 00:03:25,300
在我看来，我们都在等待

125
00:03:25,300 --> 00:03:26,699
潜在的利好消息

126
00:03:26,699 --> 00:03:29,900
或新CEO的明确战略

127
00:03:29,900 --> 00:03:33,379
或者他们是否会出售业务部分给亚马逊

128
00:03:33,379 --> 00:03:35,479
亚马逊目前处于区间震荡，约20美元

129
00:03:35,479 --> 00:03:36,719
与Meta类似

130
00:03:36,719 --> 00:03:38,879
这两只股的估值看起来非常便宜

131
00:03:38,879 --> 00:03:43,889
但没人愿意在短期内大量买入亚马逊或Meta

132
00:03:43,889 --> 00:03:46,669
因为没人知道CAX未来几年的发展方向

133
00:03:46,669 --> 00:03:49,429
没错，它飙升得太离谱了

134
00:03:49,429 --> 00:03:52,569
他们达到了如此夸张的水平

135
00:03:52,569 --> 00:03:53,810
我们的报告数据很亮眼

136
00:03:53,810 --> 00:03:54,870
亚马逊的报告数据也很亮眼

137
00:03:54,870 --> 00:03:59,219
但当谈到大额投资时，没人愿意买入这些股

138
00:03:59,219 --> 00:04:00,879
因为它们就像在说

139
00:04:00,879 --> 00:04:02,560
如果继续疯狂扩张资本支出

140
00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:04,340
每股收益将被拖累多年

141
00:04:04,340 --> 00:04:06,520
因为芯片大幅贬值

142
00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:10,419
没错，这些股需要注意这点

143
00:04:10,419 --> 00:04:11,310
你知道的

144
00:04:11,310 --> 00:04:13,830
如果CAX没有失控

145
00:04:13,830 --> 00:04:17,160
或这两家公司降温处理整个情况

146
00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:21,720
比如大幅削减未来几年的资本开支

147
00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:22,879
天啊

148
00:04:22,879 --> 00:04:24,199
这些股可能会开始

149
00:04:24,199 --> 00:04:24,620
你知道的

150
00:04:24,620 --> 00:04:25,480
亚马逊股价会涨到250美元

151
00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:26,600
再过一会儿

152
00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:27,939
亚马逊市值就会突破一千亿美元

153
00:04:27,939 --> 00:04:30,459
但考虑到你那边的情况

154
00:04:30,459 --> 00:04:31,639
这两只股票只是

155
00:04:31,639 --> 00:04:32,279
你知道的

156
00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:33,259
正在挣扎中

157
00:04:33,259 --> 00:04:34,240
悠闲自得

158
00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:35,699
接下来一段时间都会这样

159
00:04:35,699 --> 00:04:39,000
美国运通股票今日上涨超2%

160
00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:41,519
这更多是经济信心的体现

161
00:04:41,519 --> 00:04:43,899
这只股票近期大幅下跌

162
00:04:43,899 --> 00:04:46,120
因短期经济担忧

163
00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:47,360
这就是它的现状

164
00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:48,259
它将继续波动

165
00:04:48,259 --> 00:04:50,480
然后没人会再记得这些

166
00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:53,629
所以这只股票近期遭重创

167
00:04:53,629 --> 00:04:55,069
整个浑水报告事件

168
00:04:55,069 --> 00:04:55,769
所有这类事情

169
00:04:55,769 --> 00:04:57,569
我觉得我在这里讨论过

170
00:04:57,569 --> 00:04:58,250
反应频道

171
00:04:58,250 --> 00:05:00,899
我觉得前几天讨论过

172
00:05:00,899 --> 00:05:02,220
我得说

173
00:05:02,220 --> 00:05:02,779
是的

174
00:05:02,779 --> 00:05:03,939
我认为是过去一周

175
00:05:03,939 --> 00:05:05,879
我在反应频道这里讨论过

176
00:05:05,879 --> 00:05:08,459
但谈到十七美元价位

177
00:05:08,459 --> 00:05:09,660
我非常看好这只股票

178
00:05:09,660 --> 00:05:10,920
我喜欢二十美元以下的

179
00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:12,720
关于SoFi公司

180
00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:14,319
十美元以下最理想

181
00:05:14,319 --> 00:05:16,680
我们几年前以六美元买入时

182
00:05:16,680 --> 00:05:17,720
你知道几年前

183
00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:18,240
但天啊

184
00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:18,500
我说

185
00:05:18,500 --> 00:05:19,379
甚至在

186
00:05:19,379 --> 00:05:21,300
二十美元以下也很有吸引力

187
00:05:21,300 --> 00:05:23,120
如果你是长期投资者

188
00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:23,300
没错

189
00:05:23,300 --> 00:05:25,089
并有长期发展眼光

190
00:05:25,089 --> 00:05:25,970
胜利度假村

191
00:05:25,970 --> 00:05:27,569
零一零一永远值得买入

192
00:05:27,569 --> 00:05:31,829
我周六晚上必须赢下比赛

193
00:05:31,829 --> 00:05:33,430
这是零债券俱乐部

194
00:05:33,430 --> 00:05:35,149
不确定你们是否了解零债券俱乐部

195
00:05:35,149 --> 00:05:35,730
但我当时在场

196
00:05:35,730 --> 00:05:36,889
周六晚上

197
00:05:36,889 --> 00:05:38,170
Amd

198
00:05:38,170 --> 00:05:38,970
Amd

199
00:05:38,970 --> 00:05:40,209
你知道的

200
00:05:40,529 --> 00:05:42,870
一旦市场开始风险偏好回升

201
00:05:42,870 --> 00:05:44,769
观看并飞翔

202
00:05:44,769 --> 00:05:46,649
观看并飞翔

203
00:05:46,649 --> 00:05:49,689
这个走势可能会让很多人感到震惊

204
00:05:50,249 --> 00:05:51,829
我们只需要

205
00:05:51,829 --> 00:05:54,329
我们需要中东石油局势的所有动态

206
00:05:54,329 --> 00:05:55,608
所有这些都要平息下来

207
00:05:55,608 --> 00:05:57,910
如果这确实对AMD有利

208
00:05:57,910 --> 00:05:58,790
我认为这是其中之一

209
00:05:58,790 --> 00:06:00,149
所以我选择最疯狂的

210
00:06:00,149 --> 00:06:00,990
在春天期间

211
00:06:00,990 --> 00:06:03,069
基本上延续到夏天

212
00:06:03,069 --> 00:06:03,990
耐克

213
00:06:03,990 --> 00:06:06,110
哦，耐克有钢铁交易

214
00:06:06,110 --> 00:06:06,790
和半五

215
00:06:06,790 --> 00:06:08,149
两美元给我留点面子

216
00:06:08,149 --> 00:06:10,470
现在这只股票简直是送钱

217
00:06:10,470 --> 00:06:11,709
短期来看就是白给

218
00:06:11,709 --> 00:06:15,459
谁知道迈克，耐克下个月或三个月可能跌得更低

219
00:06:15,459 --> 00:06:16,540
在未来几年

220
00:06:16,540 --> 00:06:17,660
耐克远高于五

221
00:06:17,660 --> 00:06:19,420
在我看来，两美元

222
00:06:19,420 --> 00:06:20,560
现在正是绝佳买入时机

223
00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:21,240
旋转

224
00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:23,418
以两两的价格买入很划算

225
00:06:23,418 --> 00:06:23,879
是的

226
00:06:23,879 --> 00:06:25,139
这家公司非凡

227
00:06:25,139 --> 00:06:25,579
我不知道

228
00:06:25,579 --> 00:06:26,819
人们是否关注他们的数据

229
00:06:26,819 --> 00:06:27,838
天啊

230
00:06:27,838 --> 00:06:28,478
看看他们的数据

231
00:06:28,478 --> 00:06:31,120
有时它是最好的小盘股之一

232
00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:32,220
就他们的数据而言

233
00:06:32,220 --> 00:06:33,399
极其令人印象深刻

234
00:06:33,399 --> 00:06:33,860
损益表

235
00:06:33,860 --> 00:06:35,120
该公司资产负债表

236
00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:36,629
谷歌麦当劳

237
00:06:36,629 --> 00:06:38,509
去年那支股票大涨

238
00:06:38,509 --> 00:06:39,629
从解放日开始

239
00:06:39,629 --> 00:06:40,750
到年底为止

240
00:06:40,750 --> 00:06:43,370
所以现在处于休整期

241
00:06:43,370 --> 00:06:43,980
没错

242
00:06:43,980 --> 00:06:45,819
现在是买入Salesforce的好时机

243
00:06:45,819 --> 00:06:47,439
Adobe现在是绝佳买入

244
00:06:47,439 --> 00:06:49,420
这些股票短期内毫无作为

245
00:06:49,420 --> 00:06:50,959
但如果你有长期眼光

246
00:06:50,959 --> 00:06:52,000
它们就是优质投资

247
00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:53,279
圣诞老人小屋

248
00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:54,800
七十一点买入很划算

249
00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:55,519
嗯蛋糕

250
00:06:56,519 --> 00:06:56,839
是的

251
00:06:56,839 --> 00:06:58,540
蛋糕五八或五

252
00:06:58,540 --> 00:06:59,850
六分强势买入

253
00:06:59,850 --> 00:07:00,730
Fubo

254
00:07:00,730 --> 00:07:01,649
投机性买入

255
00:07:01,649 --> 00:07:02,949
但最终可能成为绝佳投资

256
00:07:05,129 --> 00:07:05,990
人们都在问

257
00:07:07,569 --> 00:07:08,009
好的

258
00:07:08,009 --> 00:07:10,389
这就是 Celsius 发生的事情对吧

259
00:07:10,389 --> 00:07:12,250
科斯科学校

260
00:07:12,250 --> 00:07:13,069
他们推出了

261
00:07:13,069 --> 00:07:13,490
呃

262
00:07:13,490 --> 00:07:17,209
一款能量饮料试图在能量饮料市场竞争

263
00:07:17,209 --> 00:07:21,930
没错，他们还要与 Celsius 和其他公司竞争

264
00:07:23,329 --> 00:07:24,389
啊

265
00:07:24,829 --> 00:07:26,189
我的意思是

266
00:07:27,310 --> 00:07:28,149
我们拭目以待

267
00:07:28,149 --> 00:07:28,870
你知道我的意思吧

268
00:07:28,870 --> 00:07:30,589
比如我好吧

269
00:07:30,589 --> 00:07:32,430
另一家销售能量饮料的公司

270
00:07:32,430 --> 00:07:32,649
比如

271
00:07:32,649 --> 00:07:33,069
你知道的

272
00:07:33,069 --> 00:07:33,389
这确实

273
00:07:33,389 --> 00:07:34,970
这类产品并不稀缺

274
00:07:34,970 --> 00:07:35,790
比如

275
00:07:35,790 --> 00:07:36,750
我是否感到意外

276
00:07:36,750 --> 00:07:39,129
科斯科现在要进军该市场

277
00:07:39,129 --> 00:07:41,319
像科斯科

278
00:07:41,319 --> 00:07:43,819
如果科斯科看到某产品成功

279
00:07:43,819 --> 00:07:46,300
他们大概会推出类似产品

280
00:07:46,300 --> 00:07:46,680
呃

281
00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:47,920
你知道的，仿制品

282
00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:50,779
如果 Celsius 在科斯科卖得极好

283
00:07:50,779 --> 00:07:51,899
科斯科会观察并说

284
00:07:51,899 --> 00:07:52,060
你知道的

285
00:07:52,060 --> 00:07:54,519
我们可以尝试打造仿制品

286
00:07:54,519 --> 00:07:55,000
比如

287
00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:56,660
如果你研究科斯科多年

288
00:07:56,660 --> 00:07:57,879
这就是他们的做法

289
00:07:57,879 --> 00:08:01,860
全世界都会从 Celsius 转到科斯科吗

290
00:08:01,860 --> 00:08:02,279
呃

291
00:08:02,279 --> 00:08:03,819
绝对不会

292
00:08:03,819 --> 00:08:06,189
但肯定会有部分人跟进

293
00:08:06,189 --> 00:08:08,189
这就是市场活力

294
00:08:08,189 --> 00:08:09,649
这是否让我考虑

295
00:08:09,649 --> 00:08:09,910
天啊

296
00:08:09,910 --> 00:08:11,230
我要清仓 Socius

297
00:08:11,230 --> 00:08:12,720
因为科斯科

298
00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:14,579
他们推出了能量饮料

299
00:08:14,579 --> 00:08:15,660
我们喜欢什么

300
00:08:15,660 --> 00:08:16,699
这太荒谬了兄弟

301
00:08:16,699 --> 00:08:18,720
就像人们都疯了

302
00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:20,620
他们疯得不得了

303
00:08:20,620 --> 00:08:21,759
我确信自己像

304
00:08:21,759 --> 00:08:22,339
好的

305
00:08:22,339 --> 00:08:23,199
天啊

306
00:08:23,199 --> 00:08:24,319
呃 tlz

307
00:08:24,319 --> 00:08:25,399
我得从这个局面里脱身

308
00:08:25,399 --> 00:08:28,779
但我要等看市场是否回撤

309
00:08:28,779 --> 00:08:29,279
嗯

310
00:08:29,279 --> 00:08:29,819
如果真的的话

311
00:08:29,819 --> 00:08:30,459
我立刻离场

312
00:08:32,279 --> 00:08:32,879
我已经离场

313
00:08:32,879 --> 00:08:33,299
我当时

314
00:08:33,299 --> 00:08:35,349
我本来要卖掉所有tlz

315
00:08:35,349 --> 00:08:37,028
我醒来发现市场上涨

316
00:08:37,028 --> 00:08:37,428
我当时就说

317
00:08:37,428 --> 00:08:37,749
啊

318
00:08:37,749 --> 00:08:39,249
兄弟别闹

319
00:08:39,249 --> 00:08:40,298
糟了

320
00:08:40,298 --> 00:08:41,739
艾拉·劳德

321
00:08:41,739 --> 00:08:43,658
这只股票钢铁交易价在八十美元以下

322
00:08:43,658 --> 00:08:46,339
有传言他们可能收购这家西班牙公司

323
00:08:46,339 --> 00:08:50,308
这家公司某种程度上是竞争对手

324
00:08:50,308 --> 00:08:51,990
人们对此感到担忧

325
00:08:51,990 --> 00:08:53,429
今日股价大幅下跌

326
00:08:53,429 --> 00:08:56,450
这是大钢铁交易的优质公司股票

327
00:08:56,450 --> 00:08:59,269
你知道要买所有低于百美元的股份

328
00:08:59,269 --> 00:09:00,549
他们和elf elf

329
00:09:00,549 --> 00:09:00,809
你知道的

330
00:09:00,809 --> 00:09:02,149
如果你想玩美妆板块

331
00:09:02,149 --> 00:09:03,240
化妆品

332
00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:04,039
护肤

333
00:09:04,039 --> 00:09:05,419
这类领域

334
00:09:05,419 --> 00:09:05,960
你知道的

335
00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:07,759
任何时候elf股价低于百元

336
00:09:07,759 --> 00:09:08,259
低于百元

337
00:09:08,259 --> 00:09:10,419
尽可能多买股票

338
00:09:10,419 --> 00:09:13,480
作为想长期布局五到十年的人

339
00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:15,889
现在市场本身

340
00:09:15,889 --> 00:09:16,250
好的

341
00:09:16,250 --> 00:09:17,830
现在聊聊市场本身

342
00:09:17,830 --> 00:09:19,029
我们正在准备

343
00:09:19,029 --> 00:09:21,730
我认为会有大幅波动

344
00:09:21,730 --> 00:09:22,309
好的

345
00:09:22,309 --> 00:09:24,429
情况是这样

346
00:09:24,429 --> 00:09:27,129
我想展示自从

347
00:09:27,129 --> 00:09:31,529
纳斯达克创下历史新高是在十月

348
00:09:31,529 --> 00:09:33,149
那是十月

349
00:09:33,149 --> 00:09:33,889
十月

350
00:09:33,889 --> 00:09:34,429
是啊

351
00:09:34,429 --> 00:09:36,370
没错，所以从十月开始

352
00:09:36,370 --> 00:09:38,009
纳斯达克下跌了约8个百分点

353
00:09:38,009 --> 00:09:39,340
现在下降了4%

354
00:09:39,340 --> 00:09:40,779
你看到持续的趋势了吗

355
00:09:40,779 --> 00:09:42,440
当你观察纳斯达克时

356
00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:43,440
在过去几个月里

357
00:09:44,559 --> 00:09:45,320
你看到星形图

358
00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:48,958
你看到纳斯达克大幅下跌后又反弹

359
00:09:48,958 --> 00:09:49,619
人们认为

360
00:09:49,619 --> 00:09:49,859
哦

361
00:09:49,859 --> 00:09:50,298
它回来了

362
00:09:50,298 --> 00:09:51,590
然后又大幅下跌对吧

363
00:09:51,590 --> 00:09:52,570
哦然后又回来了

364
00:09:52,570 --> 00:09:52,909
哦不

365
00:09:52,909 --> 00:09:53,570
它继续下跌

366
00:09:53,570 --> 00:09:53,870
哦

367
00:09:53,870 --> 00:09:54,269
我们回来了

368
00:09:54,269 --> 00:09:54,549
哦不

369
00:09:54,549 --> 00:09:55,149
它更低了

370
00:09:55,149 --> 00:09:55,529
对啊

371
00:09:55,529 --> 00:09:55,990
哦不

372
00:09:55,990 --> 00:09:56,370
我们回来了

373
00:09:56,370 --> 00:09:57,110
它更低了

374
00:09:57,110 --> 00:09:57,509
哦不

375
00:09:57,509 --> 00:09:57,870
我们回来了

376
00:09:57,870 --> 00:09:58,509
它更低了

377
00:09:58,509 --> 00:09:58,909
哦不

378
00:09:58,909 --> 00:09:59,230
我们回来了

379
00:09:59,230 --> 00:09:59,850
它更低了

380
00:09:59,850 --> 00:10:00,269
哦不

381
00:10:00,269 --> 00:10:03,399
我们回来了，回到今天这样的日子

382
00:10:03,399 --> 00:10:06,059
或许很快又会再次下跌

383
00:10:06,059 --> 00:10:10,059
所以不要对任何反弹过于自信

384
00:10:10,059 --> 00:10:11,220
从短期来看

385
00:10:11,220 --> 00:10:12,860
作为长期投资者

386
00:10:12,860 --> 00:10:15,940
不要过度纠结于判断底部

387
00:10:15,940 --> 00:10:16,139
哦

388
00:10:16,139 --> 00:10:17,120
这就是市场的底部

389
00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:18,460
这是纳斯达克的底部

390
00:10:18,460 --> 00:10:21,779
只需持续投资这个市场

391
00:10:21,779 --> 00:10:22,940
因为这里有个机会

392
00:10:22,940 --> 00:10:23,419
好的

393
00:10:23,419 --> 00:10:24,639
如果在接下来的两

394
00:10:24,639 --> 00:10:25,799
四到四十八小时

395
00:10:25,799 --> 00:10:35,100
目前没有实质性的证据显示我们在任何重大方面与百老汇的谈判进展

396
00:10:35,100 --> 00:10:36,460
也没有任何协议签署

397
00:10:36,460 --> 00:10:37,440
听着，兄弟

398
00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:38,659
你知道市场会发生什么

399
00:10:38,659 --> 00:10:40,559
它会立刻大幅回落

400
00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:42,480
我们将创下新低点

401
00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:47,169
所以如果现在有结论的话

402
00:10:47,169 --> 00:10:48,950
人们信心十足就会直接突破

403
00:10:48,950 --> 00:10:50,409
鹿鼠全部重新开盘回升

404
00:10:50,409 --> 00:10:51,889
一切都很顺利

405
00:10:51,889 --> 00:10:52,549
所有事情都被遗忘

406
00:10:52,549 --> 00:10:53,029
我们要

407
00:10:53,029 --> 00:10:54,259
一切都很顺利

408
00:10:54,259 --> 00:10:54,899
好的

409
00:10:54,899 --> 00:10:58,318
我们可能设定了短期底部并开始回升

410
00:10:58,318 --> 00:11:02,759
但如果没有实质性进展，仅靠言论只能支撑市场一时

411
00:11:02,759 --> 00:11:10,919
言论啊，这些或那些言论只能维持市场一天

412
00:11:10,919 --> 00:11:13,440
若24小时内看不到实质进展

413
00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:14,759
市场将再次大幅抛售

414
00:11:14,759 --> 00:11:17,080
我们将创下全市场新低

415
00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:20,590
作为长期投资者

416
00:11:20,590 --> 00:11:24,870
现在不要过度纠结于判断底部

417
00:11:24,870 --> 00:11:30,620
因为我们需要实际证据证明某些事发生

418
00:11:30,620 --> 00:11:30,940
哦

419
00:11:30,940 --> 00:11:33,360
人们常说市场会相信这些话

420
00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:36,809
然后市场会再次抛售需谨记

421
00:11:36,809 --> 00:11:40,669
对的，还有更大的担忧

422
00:11:40,669 --> 00:11:42,730
不仅仅是中东局势

423
00:11:44,970 --> 00:11:45,539
担忧

424
00:11:45,539 --> 00:11:46,159
嗯

425
00:11:46,159 --> 00:11:47,899
市场正担忧

426
00:11:47,899 --> 00:11:48,559
我说

427
00:11:48,559 --> 00:11:49,179
天啊

428
00:11:49,179 --> 00:11:49,940
你知道的

429
00:11:49,940 --> 00:11:51,820
现在谁想旅行啊

430
00:11:51,820 --> 00:11:53,159
我说

431
00:11:53,159 --> 00:11:55,019
我根本不想旅行

432
00:11:55,019 --> 00:11:57,828
你们肯定看到了拉瓜迪亚机场的情况

433
00:11:57,828 --> 00:12:00,908
你们肯定看到全国各地的情况

434
00:12:00,908 --> 00:12:02,528
所有机场

435
00:12:02,528 --> 00:12:03,509
全国几乎每个地方

436
00:12:03,509 --> 00:12:05,379
这简直灾难

437
00:12:05,379 --> 00:12:08,889
现在不想旅行和飞行

438
00:12:09,210 --> 00:12:10,330
天啊

439
00:12:10,330 --> 00:12:12,789
这太残酷了对经济不利

440
00:12:12,789 --> 00:12:18,068
这将持续成为市场阴云

441
00:12:18,068 --> 00:12:21,068
然后我们需要处理中东局势

442
00:12:21,068 --> 00:12:24,578
若获得中东局势改善的明确证据

443
00:12:24,578 --> 00:12:26,339
就能突破担忧壁垒

444
00:12:26,339 --> 00:12:29,658
还需突破通胀担忧

445
00:12:29,658 --> 00:12:32,379
然后突破经济担忧

446
00:12:32,379 --> 00:12:35,210
以及经济走向如何

447
00:12:35,210 --> 00:12:35,909
这些事情

448
00:12:35,909 --> 00:12:38,960
当市场趋势持续上涨时

449
00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:39,799
但相信我

450
00:12:39,799 --> 00:12:42,299
这个市场会迅速回调至新低

451
00:12:42,299 --> 00:12:46,269
如果我们没有快速的实质性证据表明

452
00:12:46,269 --> 00:12:46,789
哦

453
00:12:46,789 --> 00:12:48,250
中东局势会全面好转

454
00:12:48,250 --> 00:12:49,129
对的 好吧

455
00:12:49,129 --> 00:12:50,509
我们继续回应这段视频

456
00:12:50,509 --> 00:12:52,509
然后我们将回应汤姆·李

457
00:12:52,509 --> 00:12:53,950
我们尚未达到当日最高点

458
00:12:53,950 --> 00:12:59,139
但无论如何我们显然整体涨幅显著

459
00:12:59,139 --> 00:13:00,940
这始终是风险所在

460
00:13:00,940 --> 00:13:04,389
就像解放日那天

461
00:13:04,389 --> 00:13:06,129
市场变得极度看跌

462
00:13:06,129 --> 00:13:08,909
并且总统最为关键

463
00:13:08,909 --> 00:13:12,809
评分卡就显示在黑板上

464
00:13:12,809 --> 00:13:17,509
在纽约证券交易所显示主要股指

465
00:13:17,509 --> 00:13:20,470
像今天早上的头条新闻

466
00:13:20,470 --> 00:13:25,450
他今早的直接评论引发了强劲 rally

467
00:13:25,450 --> 00:13:26,389
去年

468
00:13:26,389 --> 00:13:27,690
斯科特的特朗普护盘政策

469
00:13:27,690 --> 00:13:29,649
如果你在债券市场

470
00:13:29,649 --> 00:13:33,710
特朗普护盘效应可能在2026年影响原油市场

471
00:13:33,710 --> 00:13:36,950
我认为这就是我们现在目睹的情况

472
00:13:36,950 --> 00:13:40,470
我们仍缺乏充分环境信息

473
00:13:40,470 --> 00:13:43,570
无法准确描述为二元状态

474
00:13:43,570 --> 00:13:44,909
做出判断

475
00:13:44,909 --> 00:13:46,078
最终

476
00:13:46,078 --> 00:13:49,578
这将是大幅上涨的转折点

477
00:13:49,578 --> 00:13:52,309
我认为今天是关键日子

478
00:13:52,309 --> 00:13:53,950
从两个方面

479
00:13:53,950 --> 00:13:54,509
首先

480
00:13:54,509 --> 00:13:58,929
首先是系统性趋势跟踪基金

481
00:13:58,929 --> 00:14:03,320
利用三日收盘低于200日均线

482
00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:06,919
今日将是第三日收盘跌破该关键

483
00:14:06,919 --> 00:14:09,990
200日均线在66.25点

484
00:14:09,990 --> 00:14:10,990
如何处理这些信息

485
00:14:10,990 --> 00:14:11,470
你

486
00:14:11,470 --> 00:14:11,730
什么

487
00:14:11,730 --> 00:14:12,269
你想要的

488
00:14:12,269 --> 00:14:15,440
这并不意味着会立即大幅抛售

489
00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:18,000
只是整体偏向反转

490
00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:19,559
就像去年春天那样

491
00:14:19,559 --> 00:14:20,809
这是错误的举动

492
00:14:20,809 --> 00:14:24,169
就像2022年4月那样

493
00:14:24,169 --> 00:14:25,289
这是正确的决策

494
00:14:25,289 --> 00:14:28,049
之后有149天低于该线

495
00:14:28,049 --> 00:14:29,289
下跌20%

496
00:14:29,289 --> 00:14:31,649
另一个重要因素我认为很重要

497
00:14:31,649 --> 00:14:33,090
我选择另一边

498
00:14:33,090 --> 00:14:36,970
过去几天你看到收益率显著上升

499
00:14:36,970 --> 00:14:40,970
你也观察到与收益率上涨相关的股票

500
00:14:40,970 --> 00:14:43,110
我认为这是一个绝佳机会

501
00:14:43,110 --> 00:14:46,250
如果你在寻找收益率上升带来的价值

502
00:14:46,250 --> 00:14:48,330
我认为收益率将会进一步走低

503
00:14:48,330 --> 00:14:50,399
我认为加息的预期

504
00:14:50,399 --> 00:14:52,690
现在发生的事情是

505
00:14:52,690 --> 00:14:57,110
有一群人认为市场将大幅下跌

506
00:14:57,110 --> 00:14:58,330
现在不要买入

507
00:14:58,330 --> 00:14:59,839
你会买到更便宜的股票

508
00:14:59,839 --> 00:15:01,019
你知道一年后

509
00:15:01,019 --> 00:15:01,839
六个月后

510
00:15:01,839 --> 00:15:02,639
无论时间点

511
00:15:02,639 --> 00:15:03,418
他们说对了

512
00:15:03,418 --> 00:15:05,278
还有另一群人

513
00:15:05,278 --> 00:15:06,559
嗯

514
00:15:06,559 --> 00:15:08,159
或者预测底部

515
00:15:08,159 --> 00:15:08,419
比如

516
00:15:08,419 --> 00:15:08,600
哦

517
00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:09,220
我们已经触底

518
00:15:09,220 --> 00:15:11,549
我们即将触底

519
00:15:11,549 --> 00:15:15,070
作为长期投资者过去十七年

520
00:15:16,659 --> 00:15:19,700
我足够聪明能理解

521
00:15:19,700 --> 00:15:23,480
但我并不聪明到能预测市场底部

522
00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:25,220
或者说

523
00:15:25,220 --> 00:15:27,580
试图判断今天是否触底

524
00:15:27,580 --> 00:15:32,769
现在我玩的是持续投资的游戏

525
00:15:32,769 --> 00:15:36,909
在某些股票中寻找绝佳机会和套利空间

526
00:15:36,909 --> 00:15:38,029
然后买入这些股票

527
00:15:38,029 --> 00:15:40,129
我说我要继续买入

528
00:15:40,129 --> 00:15:41,529
市场越跌

529
00:15:41,529 --> 00:15:42,590
波动率指数VIX越高

530
00:15:42,590 --> 00:15:44,750
我越要更激进地买入

531
00:15:44,750 --> 00:15:45,230
没错

532
00:15:45,230 --> 00:15:46,529
但我不会

533
00:15:46,529 --> 00:15:47,299
你知道的

534
00:15:47,299 --> 00:15:51,500
我无法准确预测2022年股市何时触底

535
00:15:51,500 --> 00:15:55,159
我无法准确判断2020年股市底部在哪里

536
00:15:55,159 --> 00:15:57,120
我无法准确说出股市

537
00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:59,360
2025年底部会在哪里

538
00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:00,839
整个解放日事件期间

539
00:16:00,839 --> 00:16:02,119
这些时间段

540
00:16:02,119 --> 00:16:03,698
即使我密切关注市场

541
00:16:03,698 --> 00:16:06,809
每天都在市场中

542
00:16:06,809 --> 00:16:10,309
每天我都会安排一次断网假期

543
00:16:10,309 --> 00:16:13,309
每年一次隔日断网假期

544
00:16:13,309 --> 00:16:14,929
我与市场保持同步

545
00:16:14,929 --> 00:16:16,070
完全了解当前状况

546
00:16:16,070 --> 00:16:16,909
正在发生的事情

547
00:16:16,909 --> 00:16:17,590
发生了什么事

548
00:16:17,590 --> 00:16:18,889
表面之下发生了什么

549
00:16:18,889 --> 00:16:20,190
所有这些公司财报

550
00:16:20,190 --> 00:16:20,830
我经常听

551
00:16:20,830 --> 00:16:24,450
可能参加的电话会议比这个星球上任何人都多

552
00:16:24,450 --> 00:16:26,679
然而我仍然无法告诉你

553
00:16:26,679 --> 00:16:27,360
哦对啊

554
00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:28,059
对了今天

555
00:16:28,059 --> 00:16:30,720
明天底周底或月底

556
00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:31,799
不不

557
00:16:31,799 --> 00:16:33,539
就像我玩这个游戏

558
00:16:33,539 --> 00:16:36,039
能够持续投资市场

559
00:16:36,039 --> 00:16:37,399
发现优质机会

560
00:16:37,399 --> 00:16:39,730
保持现金储备并注意

561
00:16:39,730 --> 00:16:41,509
你会看到市场进一步下跌

562
00:16:41,509 --> 00:16:43,110
你会看到更好的机会

563
00:16:43,110 --> 00:16:44,490
你会看到波动率指数飙升

564
00:16:44,490 --> 00:16:46,539
你应该更激进地投资

565
00:16:46,539 --> 00:16:49,440
并将你的现金储备逐步减少

566
00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:51,279
直到承受了一定损失

567
00:16:51,279 --> 00:16:52,200
接下来你会发现

568
00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:53,240
你会持有大量现金

569
00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:53,720
这也没关系

570
00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:55,240
只要收入超过支出

571
00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:56,980
继续在市场投资

572
00:16:56,980 --> 00:17:00,759
这就是需要记住的

573
00:17:00,759 --> 00:17:03,159
绝对是你误解了

574
00:17:03,159 --> 00:17:05,059
我不是说这可能有误

575
00:17:05,059 --> 00:17:07,519
我认为你会看到市场并获得利率

576
00:17:07,519 --> 00:17:10,700
市场表明有更高概率获得利率

577
00:17:10,700 --> 00:17:12,220
六月加息在即

578
00:17:12,220 --> 00:17:13,740
这就是关键点

579
00:17:13,740 --> 00:17:14,900
我选择相反立场

580
00:17:14,900 --> 00:17:16,099
我持相反观点

581
00:17:16,099 --> 00:17:18,740
市场中与之相关的股票操作策略

582
00:17:18,740 --> 00:17:18,980
好的

583
00:17:18,980 --> 00:17:21,099
我只想给出一个标题

584
00:17:21,099 --> 00:17:23,599
因为发生了太多事情

585
00:17:23,599 --> 00:17:27,609
股市已脱离高位

586
00:17:27,609 --> 00:17:31,500
我们应该提供最新头条

587
00:17:31,500 --> 00:17:34,039
这是在X平台上的帖子

588
00:17:34,039 --> 00:17:35,920
伊朗议会发言人表示

589
00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:39,088
未与美国进行任何谈判

590
00:17:39,088 --> 00:17:43,388
发言人称这是操纵油价的虚假新闻

591
00:17:43,669 --> 00:17:48,229
并强调伊朗民众要求彻底且真诚的

592
00:17:48,229 --> 00:17:48,808
嗯

593
00:17:48,808 --> 00:17:50,348
惩罚侵略者

594
00:17:50,348 --> 00:17:55,799
这据称来自伊朗议会发言人

595
00:17:55,799 --> 00:17:56,440
嗯

596
00:17:56,440 --> 00:18:01,349
来自社交媒体的帖子无疑产生了一定影响

597
00:18:01,349 --> 00:18:03,329
这个市场上的东西

598
00:18:03,329 --> 00:18:05,369
我们总统所说的言论

599
00:18:05,369 --> 00:18:06,049
呃

600
00:18:06,049 --> 00:18:06,869
发生了

601
00:18:06,869 --> 00:18:07,789
激烈的谈判

602
00:18:07,789 --> 00:18:08,549
他说

603
00:18:08,549 --> 00:18:10,609
几乎所有共识点

604
00:18:10,609 --> 00:18:11,089
呃

605
00:18:11,089 --> 00:18:12,049
惠特科夫和库什纳

606
00:18:12,049 --> 00:18:12,890
那些参与的人

607
00:18:12,890 --> 00:18:13,930
他们昨天举行了

608
00:18:13,930 --> 00:18:16,710
他们非常希望与伊朗达成协议

609
00:18:16,710 --> 00:18:17,150
呃

610
00:18:17,150 --> 00:18:20,670
我们也想今天再聚达成协议

611
00:18:20,670 --> 00:18:23,670
你就当它有点价值吧

612
00:18:23,670 --> 00:18:29,619
我得回到许多人今天都在强调的观点

613
00:18:29,619 --> 00:18:33,130
这不过是解放日的重演

614
00:18:33,130 --> 00:18:33,410
还有

615
00:18:33,410 --> 00:18:35,289
以及

616
00:18:35,289 --> 00:18:40,500
你知道总统不想看到股市大幅下跌

617
00:18:40,500 --> 00:18:42,200
这其实不是坏事

618
00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:43,380
我不相信任何事

619
00:18:43,380 --> 00:18:44,480
伊朗必须表态

620
00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:44,880
所以

621
00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:46,079
我对此持怀疑态度

622
00:18:46,079 --> 00:18:50,059
我认为特朗普政府在这方面一直很一致

623
00:18:50,059 --> 00:18:51,119
对我们说

624
00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:52,779
这将持续不了多久

625
00:18:52,779 --> 00:18:53,579
这是四

626
00:18:53,579 --> 00:18:54,099
五周

627
00:18:54,099 --> 00:18:54,359
五

628
00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:54,819
六周

629
00:18:54,819 --> 00:18:55,660
但不会是几个月

630
00:18:55,660 --> 00:18:56,779
更不会是几年

631
00:18:56,779 --> 00:18:58,039
如果情况如此

632
00:18:58,039 --> 00:19:01,150
加上中期选举临近

633
00:19:01,150 --> 00:19:03,509
我认为实际时间会少于预期

634
00:19:03,509 --> 00:19:04,990
在时间框架上

635
00:19:04,990 --> 00:19:06,910
他无法承受油价

636
00:19:06,910 --> 00:19:09,849
和如此高的生活成本

637
00:19:09,849 --> 00:19:11,809
这对许多人来说太糟糕了

638
00:19:11,809 --> 00:19:14,140
尤其是在K型经济中

639
00:19:14,140 --> 00:19:15,660
高端群体能承受

640
00:19:15,660 --> 00:19:17,680
中低端群体却无法承受

641
00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:20,240
但整体仍有大量未知因素

642
00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:21,799
今天感觉不错

643
00:19:21,799 --> 00:19:24,000
最终取决于时机

644
00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:28,019
但我又得用经济数据让你听得昏昏欲睡

645
00:19:28,019 --> 00:19:29,440
因为很重要

646
00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:32,720
因为我认为我们实际上处于更有利的位置

647
00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:34,819
从经济角度来看

648
00:19:34,819 --> 00:19:35,839
这次轮到我们了

649
00:19:35,839 --> 00:19:36,099
然后

650
00:19:36,099 --> 00:19:38,180
就在解放日那天

651
00:19:38,180 --> 00:19:40,589
就在两年前

652
00:19:40,589 --> 00:19:42,230
硅谷银行倒闭了

653
00:19:42,230 --> 00:19:43,690
就在新冠期间

654
00:19:43,690 --> 00:19:47,190
在这三个案例中我们都经历了大幅复苏

655
00:19:47,190 --> 00:19:52,669
你必须在普遍的不确定性中买入

656
00:19:52,669 --> 00:19:55,509
没错，如果你等到不确定性消失

657
00:19:55,509 --> 00:19:56,799
你会错过很多机会

658
00:19:56,799 --> 00:19:58,299
必须着眼长期

659
00:19:58,299 --> 00:20:00,220
所以交易者完全是不同的物种

660
00:20:00,220 --> 00:20:02,099
但从投资角度来看

661
00:20:02,099 --> 00:20:06,200
需要寻找被市场抛售的优质蓝筹股

662
00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:07,619
这就是我一直做的

663
00:20:07,619 --> 00:20:08,880
我一直在大量买入

664
00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:10,380
我甚至没有太多现金

665
00:20:10,380 --> 00:20:11,519
市场严重超卖

666
00:20:11,519 --> 00:20:15,460
这里可能会出现几天的乐观情绪

667
00:20:15,460 --> 00:20:18,409
但我们将持续震荡直到时间线到来

668
00:20:18,409 --> 00:20:20,288
但那时股价会更高

669
00:20:20,288 --> 00:20:25,859
在我看来这是蓝筹股还是现金选择

670
00:20:25,859 --> 00:20:28,259
你知道这让我感觉如何

671
00:20:28,539 --> 00:20:29,440
这让我感觉

672
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:30,079
我们很担忧

673
00:20:30,079 --> 00:20:30,819
我感到担忧

674
00:20:30,819 --> 00:20:31,859
我们还会继续下跌

675
00:20:31,859 --> 00:20:34,680
你知道我的意思，你已经全盘皆输了

676
00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:35,730
天啊

677
00:20:35,730 --> 00:20:36,930
天啊

678
00:20:36,930 --> 00:20:38,450
哦可能还会更低

679
00:20:38,450 --> 00:20:42,500
嗯解放日后的股市情况

680
00:20:42,500 --> 00:20:43,500
我认为是这样

681
00:20:43,500 --> 00:20:44,579
我认为是这样

682
00:20:44,579 --> 00:20:45,140
我是说

683
00:20:45,140 --> 00:20:47,259
正如斯蒂芬妮所说，我们永远不知道

684
00:20:47,259 --> 00:20:49,279
直到事后很久

685
00:20:49,279 --> 00:20:51,779
但我觉得总统已经表露了态度

686
00:20:51,779 --> 00:20:52,759
记得上周六

687
00:20:52,759 --> 00:20:54,960
他说这同样让我很困扰

688
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:55,779
哦对

689
00:20:55,779 --> 00:20:58,849
大家都在试图表达

690
00:20:58,849 --> 00:21:01,329
这和去年的解放日情况相同

691
00:21:01,329 --> 00:21:02,450
我喜欢看到这样的现象

692
00:21:02,450 --> 00:21:05,069
大家形成了这样的共识

693
00:21:05,069 --> 00:21:05,230
哦

694
00:21:05,230 --> 00:21:06,390
这就像解放日一样

695
00:21:06,390 --> 00:21:08,410
我记得去年是三月或四月

696
00:21:08,410 --> 00:21:11,069
然后特朗普塔科和其他杂七杂八的事

697
00:21:11,069 --> 00:21:14,809
我只是和大家一样，都处于同样的假设中

698
00:21:14,809 --> 00:21:16,470
这其实让我感到害怕

699
00:21:16,470 --> 00:21:18,930
三到四头麋鹿在48小时内不会开放

700
00:21:18,930 --> 00:21:20,670
我现在要轰炸发电厂了

701
00:21:20,670 --> 00:21:21,190
我们必须明确

702
00:21:21,190 --> 00:21:23,150
我认为接下来还有三到四个小时

703
00:21:23,150 --> 00:21:26,420
时间线已到，黑暗笼罩伊朗

704
00:21:26,420 --> 00:21:28,949
这大概就是炸弹开始降落的时间

705
00:21:28,973 --> 00:21:29,969
然而

706
00:21:29,969 --> 00:21:32,269
我们必须重视这样一个事实

707
00:21:32,269 --> 00:21:34,068
他不仅至今未发动轰炸

708
00:21:34,068 --> 00:21:35,328
还发布了这条推特

709
00:21:35,328 --> 00:21:36,509
说一切都很顺利

710
00:21:36,509 --> 00:21:40,588
这让我想到去年四月九日

711
00:21:40,588 --> 00:21:42,489
当时他关注了债券市场

712
00:21:42,489 --> 00:21:42,769
乔

713
00:21:42,769 --> 00:21:43,900
正如你所指出的

714
00:21:43,900 --> 00:21:46,160
现在他开始关注石油市场

715
00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:49,179
并意识到我们已接近临界点

716
00:21:49,179 --> 00:21:53,439
他无法指望政策继续维持现状

717
00:21:53,439 --> 00:21:56,159
他可能在中期选举中惨败

718
00:21:56,159 --> 00:21:58,130
所以他现在改变了方向

719
00:21:58,130 --> 00:21:59,009
我们必须明确

720
00:21:59,009 --> 00:22:00,849
伊朗人对此有发言权

721
00:22:00,849 --> 00:22:04,259
他们目前并未开放霍尔木兹海峡

722
00:22:04,259 --> 00:22:06,420
但这与去年的情况类似

723
00:22:06,420 --> 00:22:07,099
在关税问题上

724
00:22:07,099 --> 00:22:08,819
当时他说有很多协议

725
00:22:08,819 --> 00:22:11,339
许多国家却表示你在说什么

726
00:22:11,339 --> 00:22:13,179
这需要时间发展

727
00:22:13,179 --> 00:22:15,058
但他已明确表态

728
00:22:15,058 --> 00:22:17,638
他不会让油价保持在一百美元

729
00:22:17,638 --> 00:22:22,240
你今天买了eBay股票

730
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,920
你能告诉我们为什么选它

731
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:26,819
但据我了解

732
00:22:26,819 --> 00:22:28,380
你曾告诉我们的制作团队

733
00:22:28,380 --> 00:22:31,880
这完全符合那种感觉

734
00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:33,589
这就像当时那样

735
00:22:33,589 --> 00:22:34,450
就是这样

736
00:22:34,450 --> 00:22:34,789
我的意思是

737
00:22:34,789 --> 00:22:35,789
有一句老话

738
00:22:35,789 --> 00:22:38,809
我们多次在节目中提到历史不会重演

739
00:22:38,809 --> 00:22:39,769
但会押韵

740
00:22:39,769 --> 00:22:41,470
我想这就是我们现在的情况

741
00:22:41,470 --> 00:22:41,990
嗯

742
00:22:41,990 --> 00:22:43,190
关于eBay

743
00:22:43,190 --> 00:22:47,440
这让我觉得这是一个很好的方式来投资可选消费板块

744
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:47,720
首先

745
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:52,599
随着油价和汽油价格回落

746
00:22:52,599 --> 00:22:53,819
可选消费板块应会复苏

747
00:22:53,819 --> 00:22:56,859
但这同时也吸引到了k侧的两条腿

748
00:22:56,859 --> 00:23:00,319
eBay上在销售奢侈品商品

749
00:23:00,319 --> 00:23:04,559
但这里也出售各种翻新和二手商品

750
00:23:04,559 --> 00:23:05,130
eBay

751
00:23:05,130 --> 00:23:08,829
这个故事中有一个小细节很少被提及

752
00:23:08,829 --> 00:23:11,849
收藏品经常在这里被处理

753
00:23:11,849 --> 00:23:13,880
这实际上是一个主要增长渠道

754
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:15,420
公司交易价格非常低廉

755
00:23:15,420 --> 00:23:16,519
市盈率在个位数区间

756
00:23:16,519 --> 00:23:17,779
市盈率倍数较低

757
00:23:17,779 --> 00:23:18,900
债务非常少

758
00:23:18,900 --> 00:23:19,960
良好的自由现金流

759
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:21,339
他们大幅缩减了股份

760
00:23:21,339 --> 00:23:22,159
数量众多

761
00:23:22,159 --> 00:23:22,979
你知道的

762
00:23:22,979 --> 00:23:23,199
斯科特

763
00:23:23,199 --> 00:23:23,939
我喜欢这个

764
00:23:23,939 --> 00:23:24,479
呃

765
00:23:24,479 --> 00:23:25,318
这是一家成长型企业

766
00:23:25,318 --> 00:23:27,298
现在正是买入的好时机

767
00:23:27,298 --> 00:23:28,549
别急着行动

768
00:23:28,549 --> 00:23:31,549
稍等片刻再做决定

769
00:23:31,549 --> 00:23:32,170
先生

770
00:23:32,170 --> 00:23:33,569
这些都不是新事物

771
00:23:33,569 --> 00:23:36,170
eBay作为收藏品交易平台已有百年历史

772
00:23:36,170 --> 00:23:36,450
比如

773
00:23:36,450 --> 00:23:38,970
这其实不是什么新鲜事

774
00:23:38,970 --> 00:23:39,210
哦

775
00:23:39,210 --> 00:23:40,690
人们在eBay上出售商品

776
00:23:40,690 --> 00:23:41,430
比如

777
00:23:41,430 --> 00:23:42,049
过去并没有

778
00:23:42,049 --> 00:23:45,269
五年前或十年前我们就能说这些

779
00:23:45,269 --> 00:23:46,470
甚至十五年前也是如此

780
00:23:46,470 --> 00:23:47,470
对于eBay来说

781
00:23:47,470 --> 00:23:49,490
好吧

782
00:23:49,490 --> 00:23:50,109
好的

783
00:23:50,109 --> 00:23:51,390
现在轮到你了

784
00:23:51,390 --> 00:23:52,049
我是说

785
00:23:52,049 --> 00:23:52,650
你知道的

786
00:23:52,650 --> 00:23:53,809
继续玩下去吧

787
00:23:53,809 --> 00:23:55,630
可选消费大幅增长

788
00:23:55,630 --> 00:23:57,009
航空公司、邮轮业

789
00:23:57,009 --> 00:23:58,589
eBay面临的问题

790
00:23:58,589 --> 00:23:59,909
他们

791
00:23:59,909 --> 00:24:02,148
他们的增长微乎其微

792
00:24:02,148 --> 00:24:04,088
如此微小的增长

793
00:24:04,088 --> 00:24:07,630
作为长期投资者若要选择亚马逊或eBay

794
00:24:07,630 --> 00:24:13,109
每天都是亚马逊，兄弟，这家公司被严重低估了

795
00:24:13,109 --> 00:24:13,549
你知道的

796
00:24:13,549 --> 00:24:17,819
过去三周半到四周内因今日消息股价上涨

797
00:24:17,819 --> 00:24:19,819
所以你想全部放进你的

798
00:24:19,819 --> 00:24:22,039
你用自己的话解释你如何看待这个

799
00:24:22,039 --> 00:24:25,549
我们现阶段将一切视为表面事实

800
00:24:26,230 --> 00:24:27,670
因为市场正在变动

801
00:24:27,670 --> 00:24:29,409
总统的讲话内容

802
00:24:29,409 --> 00:24:32,348
尽管我们仍在等待更多具体细节

803
00:24:32,348 --> 00:24:34,209
但市场反应如此

804
00:24:34,209 --> 00:24:36,368
我们将对此做出反应

805
00:24:37,579 --> 00:24:39,779
我认为周五会看到结果

806
00:24:39,779 --> 00:24:42,869
补充乔刚才提到的两天低点

807
00:24:42,869 --> 00:24:46,490
我们可以承受连续十天低于金枪鱼日

808
00:24:46,490 --> 00:24:47,890
从历史数据来看

809
00:24:47,890 --> 00:24:49,430
我们需要突破这一水平

810
00:24:49,430 --> 00:24:51,749
对于纳斯达克和标普指数来说

811
00:24:51,749 --> 00:24:53,989
才能真正恢复牛市

812
00:24:53,989 --> 00:24:58,690
我认为投资者需关注6624点位

813
00:24:58,690 --> 00:24:59,809
我们现在处于下方

814
00:24:59,809 --> 00:25:01,269
但需要重新突破

815
00:25:01,269 --> 00:25:03,740
我认为收益率也需关注50

816
00:25:03,740 --> 00:25:06,180
我们正在创出新低

817
00:25:06,180 --> 00:25:08,480
450可能是下一阶段

818
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:09,920
在这些高点持续下行

819
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:12,160
只要保持低于该点

820
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:15,539
这也与200日均线相吻合

821
00:25:15,539 --> 00:25:16,730
我们形势良好

822
00:25:16,730 --> 00:25:19,890
因此投资者应关注十年期国债450点

823
00:25:19,890 --> 00:25:21,390
不要急于入场

824
00:25:21,390 --> 00:25:24,950
需突破200日均线再回归原油

825
00:25:24,950 --> 00:25:27,309
我认为所有人都正确，原油很重要

826
00:25:27,309 --> 00:25:28,650
作为关键信号

827
00:25:28,650 --> 00:25:34,960
但需理解全球成本将逐渐传导

828
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:38,839
若未来仍维持80-90区间

829
00:25:38,839 --> 00:25:43,660
因为95%的工业产品

830
00:25:43,660 --> 00:25:48,160
核心成分是烃类或石油化工

831
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:49,640
无论是塑料

832
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:50,880
还是合成纤维

833
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:51,750
等等

834
00:25:51,750 --> 00:25:53,130
因此你会看到

835
00:25:53,130 --> 00:25:56,099
我认为航空业价格将上涨

836
00:25:56,099 --> 00:25:57,359
价格将在

837
00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:59,039
所有制造品中上涨

838
00:25:59,039 --> 00:26:01,819
只要油价保持在80以上

839
00:26:01,819 --> 00:26:04,059
因此我们尚未脱离困境

840
00:26:04,059 --> 00:26:07,359
我认为与解放日有相似之处

841
00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:10,740
不同之处在于那是白宫制造的事件

842
00:26:10,740 --> 00:26:13,150
他们随时可以终止

843
00:26:13,150 --> 00:26:14,230
我将其归结为

844
00:26:14,230 --> 00:26:17,029
这对伊朗政权是生死存亡

845
00:26:17,029 --> 00:26:18,990
我们将观察理性决策者

846
00:26:18,990 --> 00:26:20,930
他们是否能保持理性

847
00:26:20,930 --> 00:26:23,289
以及日本和其他合作伙伴

848
00:26:23,289 --> 00:26:23,769
不过我的意思是

849
00:26:23,769 --> 00:26:25,769
我觉得我们得等到周末结束

850
00:26:25,769 --> 00:26:27,880
我不认为我们真的脱离险境

851
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:29,680
因为这不是解放日

852
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,240
这影响更大也更严重

853
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:32,680
是的

854
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:34,200
但话语降温

855
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:38,210
至少目前对斯蒂芬妮来说已足够

856
00:26:38,210 --> 00:26:42,190
我认为正确指出市场过度乐观或即将达到临界点

857
00:26:42,190 --> 00:26:44,809
并寻找任何积极因素来寄托希望

858
00:26:44,809 --> 00:26:46,119
今天早上就得到了

859
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:47,779
并做出积极反应

860
00:26:47,779 --> 00:26:49,079
影响更为深远

861
00:26:49,079 --> 00:26:51,109
形势更加严峻

862
00:26:51,430 --> 00:26:53,690
我们还有很长的路要走

863
00:26:53,690 --> 00:26:54,509
女士，好的

864
00:26:54,509 --> 00:26:55,750
让我们听听汤姆·李

865
00:26:55,750 --> 00:26:57,549
从几小时前的更新来看

866
00:26:57,549 --> 00:26:58,470
现在请我们的专家团队

867
00:26:58,470 --> 00:26:59,549
CNBC特约评论员

868
00:26:59,549 --> 00:27:00,230
Funstrats

869
00:27:00,230 --> 00:27:00,789
汤姆·李

870
00:27:00,789 --> 00:27:02,210
CBC资本市场

871
00:27:02,210 --> 00:27:02,710
克里斯·哈维

872
00:27:02,710 --> 00:27:05,130
在这一点上很高兴有你们两位

873
00:27:05,130 --> 00:27:05,529
克里斯

874
00:27:05,529 --> 00:27:06,730
你并不认同

875
00:27:06,730 --> 00:27:08,140
你真的不这么认为吗

876
00:27:08,140 --> 00:27:11,359
我实在看不出这一切如何顺利

877
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:15,670
你正面临一场非常非传统的冲突

878
00:27:15,670 --> 00:27:18,230
即使今天宣布停火

879
00:27:18,230 --> 00:27:20,630
这种停火能持续多久

880
00:27:20,630 --> 00:27:23,809
你怎么能自信地说

881
00:27:23,809 --> 00:27:26,799
我们不会在霍尔木兹海峡遇到问题

882
00:27:26,799 --> 00:27:29,099
你无法有这样的信心

883
00:27:29,099 --> 00:27:30,539
他们是否在推进

884
00:27:30,539 --> 00:27:31,700
他们是否在推进

885
00:27:31,700 --> 00:27:32,839
我希望如此

886
00:27:32,839 --> 00:27:33,359
嗯

887
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:34,400
对我来说还不清楚

888
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:36,099
但当我审视局势

889
00:27:36,099 --> 00:27:39,329
情况并不明朗且复杂

890
00:27:39,329 --> 00:27:41,049
我不知道如何使其持久

891
00:27:41,049 --> 00:27:41,130
嗯

892
00:27:41,130 --> 00:27:41,670
我的意思是

893
00:27:41,670 --> 00:27:44,660
你也需观察市场受损情况

894
00:27:44,660 --> 00:27:50,779
这表明股票并未像人们想象的那样严重超卖

895
00:27:50,779 --> 00:27:54,470
因此我们认为我们的目标有两位数的上行空间

896
00:27:54,470 --> 00:27:55,049
这便是

897
00:27:55,049 --> 00:27:55,609
呃

898
00:27:55,609 --> 00:27:56,990
七千四百五十

899
00:27:56,990 --> 00:27:58,888
说起来容易对吧

900
00:27:58,888 --> 00:28:01,009
但我们在说必须在这里购买吗

901
00:28:01,009 --> 00:28:01,969
你现在必须购买

902
00:28:01,969 --> 00:28:03,528
如果你是长期投资

903
00:28:03,528 --> 00:28:04,009
是的

904
00:28:04,009 --> 00:28:08,299
但在短期内我看不出消费者信心

905
00:28:08,299 --> 00:28:10,480
投资者信心崩溃的情况

906
00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:11,980
市场被过度抛售

907
00:28:11,980 --> 00:28:13,220
你必须去追逐这些

908
00:28:13,220 --> 00:28:13,519
什么

909
00:28:13,519 --> 00:28:14,599
如果我们让问题变得太复杂了

910
00:28:14,599 --> 00:28:17,299
然后我刚反驳你并说

911
00:28:17,299 --> 00:28:23,730
另一面是股市仅对总统真正重要的

912
00:28:23,730 --> 00:28:26,630
从总统视角被过度抛售

913
00:28:26,630 --> 00:28:29,160
我们以前就学过这个

914
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:32,079
我们见过这个剧本并正在经历

915
00:28:32,079 --> 00:28:34,920
这很合理而我们正在

916
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:36,839
尽管地缘政治如何

917
00:28:36,839 --> 00:28:39,279
年初开始调整投资组合

918
00:28:39,279 --> 00:28:40,679
我们非常避险

919
00:28:40,679 --> 00:28:41,159
现在

920
00:28:41,159 --> 00:28:42,898
我们正在减少避险

921
00:28:42,898 --> 00:28:43,638
逐步进行

922
00:28:43,638 --> 00:28:45,739
我们发现了一些增长机会

923
00:28:45,739 --> 00:28:48,219
并随着市场调整继续推进

924
00:28:48,219 --> 00:28:52,630
地缘政治实在太难预测

925
00:28:52,630 --> 00:28:55,130
你上周和我说过特朗普

926
00:28:55,130 --> 00:28:56,410
你用过这些词

927
00:28:56,410 --> 00:29:02,000
我没有因为你在分析这迟早会发生

928
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:03,160
不 是的

929
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:06,960
现在我们知道五天内可能发生什么

930
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:09,059
我认为我们必须记住一点

931
00:29:09,059 --> 00:29:13,569
认为战争结束才能见底的投资者

932
00:29:13,569 --> 00:29:15,000
股票才会触底

933
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:16,779
并未研究历史

934
00:29:16,779 --> 00:29:18,759
你知道市场会在

935
00:29:18,759 --> 00:29:19,339
之前

936
00:29:19,339 --> 00:29:20,380
积极消息

937
00:29:20,380 --> 00:29:21,059
开始出现

938
00:29:21,059 --> 00:29:21,859
困扰股市

939
00:29:21,859 --> 00:29:22,960
在坏消息中见底

940
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:23,880
在我看来

941
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:24,640
我认为什么

942
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:25,339
我们必须开始

943
00:29:25,339 --> 00:29:26,259
真的好

944
00:29:26,259 --> 00:29:26,720
汤姆

945
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:27,460
我们刚才说过

946
00:29:27,460 --> 00:29:29,420
股票在坏消息中见底

947
00:29:29,420 --> 00:29:30,059
是的

948
00:29:30,059 --> 00:29:33,240
这是你在股市旅程中很早就学到的东西

949
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:34,798
嗯，是的

950
00:29:34,798 --> 00:29:36,598
人们总以为现在一切都要变得完美

951
00:29:36,598 --> 00:29:39,460
股票总是在真正好转前就见底了

952
00:29:39,460 --> 00:29:40,380
当然没错

953
00:29:40,380 --> 00:29:40,980
必须专注

954
00:29:40,980 --> 00:29:43,220
然后它们开始大幅下跌，远早于好转

955
00:29:43,220 --> 00:29:44,700
实际情况其实很糟糕

956
00:29:44,700 --> 00:29:45,380
所以啊

957
00:29:45,380 --> 00:29:47,659
他持仓策略非常正确

958
00:29:47,659 --> 00:29:49,298
以及市场如何反应

959
00:29:49,298 --> 00:29:50,778
以及即将引领的方向

960
00:29:50,778 --> 00:29:51,499
你知道的

961
00:29:51,499 --> 00:29:52,569
即使是 Citadel

962
00:29:52,569 --> 00:29:53,849
一位交易员曾提到过

963
00:29:53,849 --> 00:29:54,049
今天

964
00:29:54,049 --> 00:29:58,019
市场存在巨大不对称性，大量押注市场下跌

965
00:29:58,019 --> 00:30:02,440
但这并不意味着股市必须等到战争结束才能

966
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:06,200
但海峡封锁必须结束

967
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:07,079
对吧

968
00:30:07,079 --> 00:30:08,539
否则你会回吐

969
00:30:08,539 --> 00:30:10,819
你目前投入市场的所有收益

970
00:30:10,819 --> 00:30:11,099
是的

971
00:30:11,099 --> 00:30:11,460
没错

972
00:30:11,460 --> 00:30:12,220
这是那个

973
00:30:12,220 --> 00:30:15,220
封锁正在对远不止

974
00:30:15,220 --> 00:30:16,000
美国造成巨大压力

975
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:19,900
同时给中国和海湾国家施压

976
00:30:19,900 --> 00:30:20,559
嗯

977
00:30:20,559 --> 00:30:25,940
现在很明显的是美国在这方面的表现优于

978
00:30:25,940 --> 00:30:26,859
所有人

979
00:30:26,859 --> 00:30:29,779
因为我们能源自给自足

980
00:30:29,779 --> 00:30:31,750
我们是石油出口国

981
00:30:31,750 --> 00:30:34,430
我知道美联储该怎么做存在困惑

982
00:30:34,430 --> 00:30:35,190
但最终

983
00:30:35,190 --> 00:30:37,670
美国可能处于最佳战略位置

984
00:30:37,670 --> 00:30:39,159
随着海峡封锁

985
00:30:39,159 --> 00:30:40,499
你太乐观了

986
00:30:40,499 --> 00:30:42,919
我不确定是否过度乐观

987
00:30:42,919 --> 00:30:44,919
但美国确实处于最佳位置

988
00:30:44,919 --> 00:30:46,930
美国处于不错的位置

989
00:30:46,930 --> 00:30:49,930
但问题是伊朗仍在运送油轮

990
00:30:49,930 --> 00:30:51,329
伊朗仍在获取资金

991
00:30:51,329 --> 00:30:52,720
伊朗感觉良好

992
00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:55,119
对他们而言局势不同

993
00:30:55,119 --> 00:30:55,880
与美国相比

994
00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:57,339
他们只需坚持

995
00:30:57,339 --> 00:30:58,990
他们只需生存

996
00:30:58,990 --> 00:31:01,369
而他们最终会赢

997
00:31:01,369 --> 00:31:03,190
我们需要更多于这一点

998
00:31:03,190 --> 00:31:04,549
我们需要控制这条海峡

999
00:31:04,549 --> 00:31:07,410
我们必须相信这会持久

1000
00:31:07,410 --> 00:31:11,910
我们必须相信局势已结束无需回头

1001
00:31:11,910 --> 00:31:13,410
所以你不会买股票

1002
00:31:13,410 --> 00:31:16,160
直到看到我不会买股票

1003
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:20,359
直到市场显示情绪大幅恶化

1004
00:31:20,359 --> 00:31:22,440
且形势严重超卖

1005
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:23,460
如果你说嘿

1006
00:31:23,460 --> 00:31:25,380
我有六个月到一年的时间周期

1007
00:31:25,380 --> 00:31:27,099
不是六周

1008
00:31:27,740 --> 00:31:28,180
好的

1009
00:31:28,180 --> 00:31:30,380
是的开始缓慢放松

1010
00:31:30,380 --> 00:31:32,299
但如果失去这个机会怎么办

1011
00:31:32,299 --> 00:31:34,730
这就是我们无法预知的

1012
00:31:34,730 --> 00:31:37,690
当你认为他们会继续上涨

1013
00:31:37,690 --> 00:31:39,049
我只是在说

1014
00:31:39,049 --> 00:31:41,720
但如果真的上涨呢

1015
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:43,579
你所需达到的可能只是

1016
00:31:43,579 --> 00:31:44,190
就是

1017
00:31:44,190 --> 00:31:44,789
呃

1018
00:31:44,789 --> 00:31:47,430
总统寻求某种缓和局势

1019
00:31:47,430 --> 00:31:48,170
其他人也会

1020
00:31:48,170 --> 00:31:48,470
你知道的

1021
00:31:48,470 --> 00:31:49,390
已提出退出方案

1022
00:31:49,390 --> 00:31:50,220
或任何类似措施

1023
00:31:50,220 --> 00:31:50,740
是的

1024
00:31:50,740 --> 00:31:53,700
无论是什么导致今日市场表现

1025
00:31:53,700 --> 00:31:54,380
是的

1026
00:31:54,380 --> 00:31:55,420
都很合理

1027
00:31:55,420 --> 00:31:56,599
我们仍需再次

1028
00:31:56,599 --> 00:31:58,059
我们看涨双位数空间

1029
00:31:58,059 --> 00:32:00,480
能否缓慢行动仍能获利

1030
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:02,700
当然要看结果

1031
00:32:02,700 --> 00:32:05,138
我们有时间观察发展

1032
00:32:05,138 --> 00:32:06,318
当我们审视当前局势

1033
00:32:06,318 --> 00:32:09,538
很难相信这已结束

1034
00:32:09,538 --> 00:32:14,119
这不是我年初最担忧的事

1035
00:32:14,119 --> 00:32:15,579
如果你一直观看我的视频

1036
00:32:15,579 --> 00:32:16,200
虔诚地

1037
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:16,400
你知道的

1038
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:21,279
年初结束时最让我担忧的首要问题

1039
00:32:21,279 --> 00:32:21,920
没错

1040
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:23,299
会发生什么

1041
00:32:23,539 --> 00:32:25,019
所有人开始发布标普

1042
00:32:25,019 --> 00:32:26,779
明年五百点的目标价

1043
00:32:26,779 --> 00:32:27,099
没错

1044
00:32:27,099 --> 00:32:27,559
所有华尔街

1045
00:32:27,559 --> 00:32:27,940
街头分析师

1046
00:32:27,940 --> 00:32:32,420
各大华尔街银行和机构开始发布明年的五百点目标

1047
00:32:32,420 --> 00:32:34,740
所有人都对今年非常看涨

1048
00:32:34,740 --> 00:32:36,859
没错，这让我很害怕

1049
00:32:36,859 --> 00:32:38,519
这确实让我感到害怕

1050
00:32:38,519 --> 00:32:40,119
因为前几年

1051
00:32:40,119 --> 00:32:40,640
呃

1052
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:42,180
华尔街在那些年份变得非常谨慎甚至看跌

1053
00:32:42,180 --> 00:32:45,929
而且更加谨慎甚至看跌

1054
00:32:46,249 --> 00:32:49,568
所以看到所有人对今年如此看涨

1055
00:32:49,568 --> 00:32:51,288
这让人不禁感叹

1056
00:32:51,288 --> 00:32:53,400
如果形势突然反转

1057
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:55,039
让我担心的是

1058
00:32:55,039 --> 00:32:57,059
起初人们试图坚持

1059
00:32:57,059 --> 00:32:59,180
他们形成了锚定效应

1060
00:32:59,180 --> 00:33:00,950
没错，他们试图坚持

1061
00:33:00,950 --> 00:33:03,150
因为如果今年大幅看涨成功

1062
00:33:03,150 --> 00:33:04,710
他们设定了很高的标普500目标

1063
00:33:04,710 --> 00:33:06,539
尽管实际情况并未按预期发展

1064
00:33:06,539 --> 00:33:08,980
本应在年初就应呈现的趋势

1065
00:33:08,980 --> 00:33:11,279
他们仍继续加码押注

1066
00:33:11,279 --> 00:33:12,339
市场肯定会反转

1067
00:33:12,339 --> 00:33:13,369
一切都会好起来

1068
00:33:13,369 --> 00:33:13,970
没错

1069
00:33:13,970 --> 00:33:16,849
市场只需持续下跌

1070
00:33:16,849 --> 00:33:17,950
然后他们彻底放弃

1071
00:33:17,950 --> 00:33:20,650
随后转向极度看跌

1072
00:33:20,650 --> 00:33:22,250
我们目睹了这一过程

1073
00:33:22,250 --> 00:33:25,349
2021年人们进入2022年

1074
00:33:25,349 --> 00:33:26,609
充满强烈看涨情绪

1075
00:33:26,609 --> 00:33:29,859
若观察标普500的众多价格目标

1076
00:33:29,859 --> 00:33:30,319
嗯

1077
00:33:30,319 --> 00:33:34,380
当华尔街机构在2021年12月发布这些预测时

1078
00:33:34,380 --> 00:33:38,930
人们感受到华尔街机构的强烈看涨

1079
00:33:38,930 --> 00:33:40,410
对2022年市场的乐观预期

1080
00:33:40,410 --> 00:33:43,920
但纳斯达克市场而言

1081
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:45,279
纳斯达克从峰值到谷底

1082
00:33:45,279 --> 00:33:48,069
从2021年四季度峰值

1083
00:33:48,069 --> 00:33:50,789
到2022年四季度谷底

1084
00:33:50,789 --> 00:33:55,490
下跌了37%，市场遭受重创

1085
00:33:55,490 --> 00:33:57,890
许多优质股票惨遭重创

1086
00:33:57,890 --> 00:33:58,930
形势非常糟糕

1087
00:33:58,930 --> 00:34:03,970
随后所有人转向看跌

1088
00:34:03,970 --> 00:34:06,660
甚至到2022年末

1089
00:34:06,660 --> 00:34:11,039
连汤姆·李也变得极度谨慎

1090
00:34:11,039 --> 00:34:13,059
当汤姆·李对市场极度谨慎时

1091
00:34:13,059 --> 00:34:14,699
说明市场已遭受严重打击

1092
00:34:14,699 --> 00:34:17,559
因此所有人变得极度谨慎

1093
00:34:17,559 --> 00:34:19,630
2023年市场迎来大丰收

1094
00:34:19,630 --> 00:34:22,809
2024年初人们仍保持谨慎

1095
00:34:22,809 --> 00:34:24,670
我说的'人们'指华尔街机构

1096
00:34:24,670 --> 00:34:25,440
华尔街各大机构

1097
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:28,460
分析师群体仍然非常担忧

1098
00:34:28,460 --> 00:34:29,409
谨慎小心

1099
00:34:29,409 --> 00:34:32,148
二四年最终会成为强劲的一年对吧

1100
00:34:32,148 --> 00:34:34,369
人们开始转向看涨一方

1101
00:34:34,369 --> 00:34:35,509
二五年稍有起色

1102
00:34:35,509 --> 00:34:36,190
没错

1103
00:34:36,190 --> 00:34:37,769
二五年对市场来说是个好年份

1104
00:34:37,769 --> 00:34:39,050
然后进入今年

1105
00:34:39,050 --> 00:34:40,949
所有人都极度看涨

1106
00:34:40,949 --> 00:34:42,969
市场情绪极度乐观

1107
00:34:42,969 --> 00:34:46,119
你知道的

1108
00:34:46,119 --> 00:34:48,278
显然我们有戏剧性事件

1109
00:34:48,278 --> 00:34:49,358
我们确实有戏剧性事件

1110
00:34:49,358 --> 00:34:50,318
我们不喜欢塔楼吗

1111
00:34:50,318 --> 00:34:51,079
你可以这样说

1112
00:34:51,079 --> 00:34:51,849
好的

1113
00:34:51,849 --> 00:34:52,989
我们可以并猜猜看

1114
00:34:52,989 --> 00:34:55,090
市场再次在四季度达到峰值

1115
00:34:55,090 --> 00:34:57,329
至少纳斯达克指数是这样

1116
00:34:58,048 --> 00:34:59,489
去年四季度

1117
00:34:59,489 --> 00:35:00,369
继续前进

1118
00:35:00,369 --> 00:35:01,409
我走得太远了

1119
00:35:01,409 --> 00:35:02,349
我可以撤回

1120
00:35:02,349 --> 00:35:03,809
这里还有另一场派对

1121
00:35:03,809 --> 00:35:07,500
但不清楚另一方是否愿意坐下来谈判

1122
00:35:07,500 --> 00:35:09,179
但我要补充说

1123
00:35:09,179 --> 00:35:10,059
毕竟

1124
00:35:10,059 --> 00:35:11,139
正如你们可以想象的

1125
00:35:11,139 --> 00:35:13,760
我们与机构投资者进行了大量对话

1126
00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:14,739
我肯定会去

1127
00:35:14,739 --> 00:35:17,619
他们都做好了长期战争的准备

1128
00:35:17,619 --> 00:35:22,829
事实上周末许多人打算在今日开盘时做空市场

1129
00:35:22,829 --> 00:35:26,889
换句话说他们准备押注大幅下跌

1130
00:35:26,889 --> 00:35:27,909
对我来说

1131
00:35:27,909 --> 00:35:29,889
我认为克里斯所说的话

1132
00:35:29,889 --> 00:35:30,949
我并不反对

1133
00:35:30,949 --> 00:35:32,190
这可能是一场长期战争

1134
00:35:32,190 --> 00:35:34,130
这是共识观点

1135
00:35:34,130 --> 00:35:35,170
在许多方面

1136
00:35:35,170 --> 00:35:36,670
没有人抱有幻想

1137
00:35:36,670 --> 00:35:38,190
这是一场短期战争

1138
00:35:38,190 --> 00:35:43,210
但这意味着新消息的不对称性可能实际有利

1139
00:35:43,210 --> 00:35:46,900
所以我属于必须观察马库斯反应的阵营

1140
00:35:46,900 --> 00:35:49,018
但今天是

1141
00:35:49,018 --> 00:35:51,659
那些所谓认为

1142
00:35:51,659 --> 00:35:53,338
这将是一场漫长的过程

1143
00:35:53,338 --> 00:35:55,239
因为我听这些华尔街人士

1144
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:56,068
继续说

1145
00:35:56,068 --> 00:35:57,009
彭博社

1146
00:35:57,009 --> 00:35:57,849
CNBC

1147
00:35:57,849 --> 00:35:58,268
对

1148
00:35:58,268 --> 00:36:00,608
我经常在后台打开它

1149
00:36:00,608 --> 00:36:05,170
而且大多数看起来像是共识

1150
00:36:05,170 --> 00:36:06,630
这将是一个短期现象

1151
00:36:06,630 --> 00:36:09,318
不是几个月的事情

1152
00:36:09,318 --> 00:36:12,539
所以我不知道这有点奇怪

1153
00:36:12,539 --> 00:36:14,119
这就是我对这个奇怪现象的看法

1154
00:36:14,119 --> 00:36:16,420
如果我们持怀疑态度

1155
00:36:16,420 --> 00:36:17,579
市场应该会下跌

1156
00:36:17,579 --> 00:36:19,139
但今天我们反而在上涨

1157
00:36:19,139 --> 00:36:21,179
毕竟我们已经持续下跌

1158
00:36:21,179 --> 00:36:22,230
连续四周

1159
00:36:22,230 --> 00:36:23,929
你刚才提到仓位配置

1160
00:36:23,929 --> 00:36:24,469
好的

1161
00:36:24,469 --> 00:36:26,170
从中走出来后

1162
00:36:26,170 --> 00:36:27,050
是这样吗

1163
00:36:27,050 --> 00:36:27,849
我们应该怎么做

1164
00:36:27,849 --> 00:36:30,318
是否回到之前的策略

1165
00:36:30,318 --> 00:36:32,179
我们知道经济会保持稳定

1166
00:36:32,179 --> 00:36:33,759
因为我们不必担心

1167
00:36:33,759 --> 00:36:35,898
汽油价格飙升

1168
00:36:35,898 --> 00:36:37,869
所以我继续做广泛交易

1169
00:36:37,869 --> 00:36:39,150
我该怎么办呢

1170
00:36:39,150 --> 00:36:40,690
我们知道投资者担忧增长

1171
00:36:40,690 --> 00:36:42,769
因此他们会买入成长股

1172
00:36:42,769 --> 00:36:44,389
这就是纳斯达克700指数

1173
00:36:44,389 --> 00:36:47,690
软件和加密货币表现突出

1174
00:36:47,690 --> 00:36:48,449
呃

1175
00:36:48,449 --> 00:36:51,170
汤姆·李

1176
00:36:51,170 --> 00:36:52,170
汤姆·李

1177
00:36:53,170 --> 00:36:53,909
我说

1178
00:36:53,909 --> 00:36:54,650
来吧

1179
00:36:55,690 --> 00:36:56,969
如果人们担心增长

1180
00:36:56,969 --> 00:36:58,829
就不会买入成长股

1181
00:36:58,829 --> 00:37:00,130
汤姆·李

1182
00:37:00,130 --> 00:37:00,550
做

1183
00:37:00,550 --> 00:37:02,250
我需要带你回到2022年

1184
00:37:02,250 --> 00:37:04,309
人们非常担忧增长

1185
00:37:04,309 --> 00:37:06,150
因为美联储快速加息

1186
00:37:06,150 --> 00:37:08,900
他们担心所有增长都将放缓

1187
00:37:08,900 --> 00:37:09,840
而他们是对的

1188
00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:11,219
增长速度大幅下降

1189
00:37:11,219 --> 00:37:13,079
看看Meta的营收增长

1190
00:37:13,079 --> 00:37:13,820
惨不忍睹

1191
00:37:13,820 --> 00:37:14,429
没错

1192
00:37:14,429 --> 00:37:15,190
亚马逊

1193
00:37:15,190 --> 00:37:16,250
看看这些大公司

1194
00:37:16,250 --> 00:37:18,809
它们从高速增长

1195
00:37:18,809 --> 00:37:19,610
然后

1196
00:37:19,610 --> 00:37:23,699
从2021年底到令人难堪的低增长

1197
00:37:23,699 --> 00:37:24,719
到2022年底

1198
00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:25,818
进入2023年

1199
00:37:25,818 --> 00:37:27,420
没错，所以

1200
00:37:27,420 --> 00:37:29,099
所有这些股票都被摧毁了

1201
00:37:29,099 --> 00:37:30,420
并不是人们像

1202
00:37:30,420 --> 00:37:30,699
哦

1203
00:37:30,699 --> 00:37:31,360
害怕增长

1204
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:32,300
我们可能会

1205
00:37:32,300 --> 00:37:33,179
全力投入增长

1206
00:37:33,179 --> 00:37:34,949
股票不不

1207
00:37:34,949 --> 00:37:36,150
我不清楚

1208
00:37:36,150 --> 00:37:37,289
事情不是这样的

1209
00:37:37,289 --> 00:37:38,250
我表示敬意

1210
00:37:38,250 --> 00:37:38,858
先生

1211
00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:42,480
呃

1212
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:43,139
顺便说一句

1213
00:37:43,139 --> 00:37:44,300
这三组

1214
00:37:44,300 --> 00:37:47,778
加上金融和能源行业（今年前可能还包括能源）

1215
00:37:47,778 --> 00:37:49,039
我们处于滚动熊市中

1216
00:37:49,039 --> 00:37:50,719
这占了市场70%

1217
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:53,320
我认为我们将看到的领导力

1218
00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:57,559
随着今日美股和加密货币JPM的崛起

1219
00:37:57,559 --> 00:37:59,619
增长放缓等于

1220
00:37:59,619 --> 00:38:01,519
美国大盘股有利

1221
00:38:01,519 --> 00:38:02,760
我认为这是正确的

1222
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:07,050
你应该做的是以合理价格买入优质成长股

1223
00:38:07,050 --> 00:38:08,909
如果观察当前情况

1224
00:38:12,590 --> 00:38:16,150
对比特币以太坊底部的判断要非常谨慎

1225
00:38:16,150 --> 00:38:17,340
听着

1226
00:38:17,659 --> 00:38:19,780
如果我们观察投资者心理

1227
00:38:24,829 --> 00:38:25,789
我们正处于

1228
00:38:25,789 --> 00:38:28,750
现在阶段应说是沮丧期

1229
00:38:28,750 --> 00:38:30,068
人们会说老兄

1230
00:38:30,068 --> 00:38:31,688
这些科技七巨头股票

1231
00:38:31,688 --> 00:38:32,568
过去表现糟糕

1232
00:38:32,568 --> 00:38:34,268
你知道过去6到12个月

1233
00:38:34,268 --> 00:38:35,429
根据你所关注的

1234
00:38:35,429 --> 00:38:36,148
你完全正确

1235
00:38:36,148 --> 00:38:36,429
我是说

1236
00:38:36,429 --> 00:38:37,228
看看英伟达

1237
00:38:37,228 --> 00:38:40,730
英伟达去年夏天股价超200美元

1238
00:38:40,730 --> 00:38:41,849
现在已是春季

1239
00:38:41,849 --> 00:38:43,329
再过一年

1240
00:38:43,329 --> 00:38:45,909
而英伟达股价约171-180美元

1241
00:38:45,909 --> 00:38:46,809
大概在这个区间

1242
00:38:46,809 --> 00:38:47,309
没错

1243
00:38:47,309 --> 00:38:49,309
去年曾创下历史新高

1244
00:38:49,309 --> 00:38:49,829
你知道的

1245
00:38:49,829 --> 00:38:50,510
什么在高位

1246
00:38:50,510 --> 00:38:51,789
七百人说

1247
00:38:51,789 --> 00:38:52,650
看看六百人

1248
00:38:52,650 --> 00:38:54,119
所以我们处于类似

1249
00:38:54,119 --> 00:38:55,119
当然还有

1250
00:38:55,119 --> 00:38:56,699
长期投资者持有我的理念

1251
00:38:56,699 --> 00:38:57,860
我们甚至不感到沮丧

1252
00:38:57,860 --> 00:38:58,699
我们只是理解

1253
00:38:58,699 --> 00:39:00,659
就像短期内市场就是市场

1254
00:39:00,659 --> 00:39:01,300
或许好吧

1255
00:39:01,300 --> 00:39:03,159
我们持有股票五年十年

1256
00:39:03,159 --> 00:39:05,400
这将赚取大量财富

1257
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:07,340
但从普通人角度

1258
00:39:07,340 --> 00:39:08,699
他们不具备这种心态

1259
00:39:08,699 --> 00:39:11,079
这会让他们非常沮丧

1260
00:39:11,079 --> 00:39:12,360
因为他们看着这些股票

1261
00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:16,909
几乎所有都大幅低于高点

1262
00:39:16,909 --> 00:39:17,389
比如

1263
00:39:17,389 --> 00:39:18,949
想想作为微软股东

1264
00:39:18,949 --> 00:39:20,119
数据表现优异

1265
00:39:20,119 --> 00:39:21,920
却无法在股票中获利

1266
00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:23,360
持续亏损

1267
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:25,000
今天你感到沮丧

1268
00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:26,500
但尚未陷入绝望

1269
00:39:26,500 --> 00:39:27,139
目前

1270
00:39:27,139 --> 00:39:31,019
如果市场继续下跌

1271
00:39:31,019 --> 00:39:31,880
就像

1272
00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:32,440
大幅暴跌

1273
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:36,130
缓慢持续下跌如同比特币

1274
00:39:36,130 --> 00:39:36,670
转眼间

1275
00:39:36,670 --> 00:39:37,989
比特币跌至五万五

1276
00:39:37,989 --> 00:39:38,949
五万美元

1277
00:39:38,949 --> 00:39:40,630
这时开始产生绝望

1278
00:39:40,630 --> 00:39:41,530
市场逼近底部

1279
00:39:41,530 --> 00:39:45,610
这时接近真实底部

1280
00:39:45,610 --> 00:39:48,739
现在仍处于沮丧阶段

1281
00:39:48,739 --> 00:39:49,059
现在

1282
00:39:49,059 --> 00:39:49,460
再次强调

1283
00:39:49,460 --> 00:39:51,239
这并不意味必须更低

1284
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:52,360
这并不确定

1285
00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:53,400
七千峰值可能更低

1286
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:54,800
因为将进入绝望阶段

1287
00:39:54,800 --> 00:39:55,579
这并不绝对

1288
00:39:55,579 --> 00:39:55,820
我意思是

1289
00:39:55,820 --> 00:39:57,099
比特币仍在下跌

1290
00:39:57,099 --> 00:40:01,719
但务必谨慎判断底部

1291
00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:02,318
现在

1292
00:40:02,318 --> 00:40:04,259
对此务必非常谨慎

1293
00:40:04,259 --> 00:40:05,039
这就是我说的

1294
00:40:05,039 --> 00:40:05,699
别这么说了

1295
00:40:05,699 --> 00:40:06,340
像，来吧

1296
00:40:06,340 --> 00:40:07,639
人们都兴奋不已

1297
00:40:07,639 --> 00:40:08,400
底部信号

1298
00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:10,480
就像用小写字母写的轻松事

1299
00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:11,079
小写字母

1300
00:40:11,079 --> 00:40:14,028
周期性风险已开始消退

1301
00:40:14,028 --> 00:40:15,349
这对我来说有道理

1302
00:40:15,349 --> 00:40:17,570
这些都是后半段的故事

1303
00:40:17,570 --> 00:40:20,619
但在接下来的三到六个月

1304
00:40:20,619 --> 00:40:21,840
更多是关于增长

1305
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:25,400
因为无需担心基本面，别忘了

1306
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:27,179
但盈利增长

1307
00:40:27,179 --> 00:40:28,630
这才是关键

1308
00:40:28,630 --> 00:40:30,110
这关乎盈利增长

1309
00:40:30,110 --> 00:40:31,030
这关乎盈利增长

1310
00:40:31,030 --> 00:40:35,289
仍有预期双位数盈利增长

1311
00:40:35,289 --> 00:40:39,760
因此人们能在很大程度上忽略这些

1312
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:41,460
并紧盯那个目标

1313
00:40:41,460 --> 00:40:43,000
我在节目开头提到过

1314
00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:48,050
只要盈利增长达到预期水平

1315
00:40:48,409 --> 00:40:50,889
那么股价应该会随之上涨

1316
00:40:50,889 --> 00:40:51,309
是的

1317
00:40:51,309 --> 00:40:55,690
我认为需注意美国盈利增长的驱动力是AI

1318
00:40:55,690 --> 00:40:59,199
而我认为AI的应用场景更强劲

1319
00:40:59,199 --> 00:41:00,219
如果油价高企

1320
00:41:00,219 --> 00:41:02,480
因为每个国家都追求生产力提升

1321
00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:05,539
因此科技行业的前景其实更佳

1322
00:41:05,539 --> 00:41:07,400
这也因高油价所致

1323
00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:10,320
这就是我们仍预期马克实现双位数增长的原因

1324
00:41:10,320 --> 00:41:10,699
然而

1325
00:41:10,699 --> 00:41:14,860
要达到目标的方式可能与之前不同

1326
00:41:14,860 --> 00:41:17,400
我们必须推迟某些事项

1327
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:18,360
年初时

1328
00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:19,400
我们关注房地产

1329
00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:20,239
大量房地产

1330
00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:23,329
股市已大幅回吐涨幅

1331
00:41:23,329 --> 00:41:24,989
现在我们重新思考

1332
00:41:24,989 --> 00:41:25,550
好吧

1333
00:41:25,550 --> 00:41:26,449
这又是

1334
00:41:26,449 --> 00:41:28,030
我们再试一次机会

1335
00:41:28,030 --> 00:41:29,070
有个时机

1336
00:41:29,070 --> 00:41:30,570
存在机会

1337
00:41:30,570 --> 00:41:33,050
但我们必须谨慎应对

1338
00:41:33,050 --> 00:41:35,170
我们何时认为美联储降息会到来

1339
00:41:35,170 --> 00:41:37,219
我们何时认为利率会下降

1340
00:41:37,219 --> 00:41:38,360
顺便说一句

1341
00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:39,460
第一季度数据

1342
00:41:39,460 --> 00:41:40,739
我们遭遇了天气影响

1343
00:41:40,739 --> 00:41:42,380
受到CNN效应冲击

1344
00:41:42,380 --> 00:41:43,579
油价更高

1345
00:41:43,579 --> 00:41:45,460
我们的展望会是什么样子

1346
00:41:45,460 --> 00:41:46,340
当我们继续前进

1347
00:41:46,340 --> 00:41:49,179
你真的想在那个周期性交易上激进操作吗

1348
00:41:49,179 --> 00:41:51,940
许多成长股的风险回报率

1349
00:41:51,940 --> 00:41:55,059
这些股票已经大幅回调

1350
00:41:55,059 --> 00:41:56,519
实际上相当有吸引力

1351
00:41:56,519 --> 00:41:58,300
你们在这一点上其实相差不大

1352
00:41:58,300 --> 00:42:01,659
你认为从标普角度看年底会涨到哪里

1353
00:42:01,659 --> 00:42:05,039
但这段路可能会更坎坷

1354
00:42:05,039 --> 00:42:06,438
嗯但我们拭目以待

1355
00:42:06,438 --> 00:42:07,719
能进行这次对话很愉快

1356
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:08,458
感谢您的到来

1357
00:42:08,458 --> 00:42:08,958
谢谢

1358
00:42:08,958 --> 00:42:10,789
克里斯和汤姆已经在现场了

1359
00:42:10,789 --> 00:42:12,510
大家保持专注

1360
00:42:12,510 --> 00:42:13,809
专注长期目标

1361
00:42:13,809 --> 00:42:14,789
戏剧性走势会是怎样的

1362
00:42:14,789 --> 00:42:16,179
短期会有大量戏剧性波动

1363
00:42:16,179 --> 00:42:18,460
市场即将崩盘的预测会很多

1364
00:42:18,460 --> 00:42:19,099
更多关于

1365
00:42:19,099 --> 00:42:20,139
我们已经触底了

1366
00:42:20,139 --> 00:42:23,000
你知道这就是市场现状

1367
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:26,719
必须坚持每周定投或

1368
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:27,420
每周定投

1369
00:42:27,420 --> 00:42:29,269
根据你的投资频率

1370
00:42:29,269 --> 00:42:31,730
必须专注寻找优质公司

1371
00:42:31,730 --> 00:42:35,119
发现优质公司充实投资组合并建仓

1372
00:42:35,119 --> 00:42:38,860
如果今年只是戏剧性的一年

1373
00:42:38,860 --> 00:42:40,559
假设今年是2022年

1374
00:42:40,559 --> 00:42:42,900
我们将持续下跌

1375
00:42:42,900 --> 00:42:45,480
直到四季度触底

1376
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:46,789
你必须接受这一点

1377
00:42:46,789 --> 00:42:49,849
如果你明天就要退休

1378
00:42:49,849 --> 00:42:50,630
这会是个问题

1379
00:42:50,630 --> 00:42:53,750
但此刻观看视频的观众大概不会明天退休

1380
00:42:53,750 --> 00:42:54,269
对吧

1381
00:42:54,269 --> 00:42:54,769
是的

1382
00:42:54,769 --> 00:42:55,030
你

1383
00:42:55,030 --> 00:42:55,679
你知道的

1384
00:42:55,679 --> 00:42:57,920
当谈到从投资组合中取钱

1385
00:42:57,920 --> 00:42:59,760
这将是很久以后的事

1386
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:01,699
所以专注优质公司

1387
00:43:01,699 --> 00:43:02,599
各位没错

1388
00:43:02,599 --> 00:43:03,599
感谢一如既往的参与

1389
00:43:03,599 --> 00:43:04,820
再次感谢您的到来

1390
00:43:04,820 --> 00:43:06,159
千x股票网

1391
00:43:06,159 --> 00:43:07,980
下周将推出大型促销

1392
00:43:07,980 --> 00:43:10,659
加入邮件列表

1393
00:43:10,659 --> 00:43:11,920
获取专属优惠

1394
00:43:11,920 --> 00:43:14,329
详情见下方置顶评论

1395
00:43:14,329 --> 00:43:16,730
我们接下来的很长一段时间都不会做促销活动

1396
00:43:16,730 --> 00:43:18,539
所以一定要把握住这次机会

1397
00:43:18,539 --> 00:43:21,380
这将包含整个高级软件套件

1398
00:43:21,380 --> 00:43:24,019
里面所有的课程内容

1399
00:43:24,019 --> 00:43:24,480
没错

1400
00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:25,739
这些课程涵盖不同学科

1401
00:43:25,739 --> 00:43:27,219
比较功能选项

1402
00:43:27,219 --> 00:43:32,739
关于对公司未来几年发展趋势的预测功能

1403
00:43:32,739 --> 00:43:36,039
高级预测功能将教你如何综合运用

1404
00:43:36,039 --> 00:43:38,239
对比多家公司之间的表现

1405
00:43:38,239 --> 00:43:40,420
可以直接在软件内收听财报电话会议

1406
00:43:40,420 --> 00:43:44,840
我会大致总结会议中发生的重要内容

1407
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:46,219
我们还会提供会议记录文本

1408
00:43:46,219 --> 00:43:46,920
天啊

1409
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:47,880
里面包含太多实用功能了

1410
00:43:47,880 --> 00:43:50,900
我们还会持续添加新功能

1411
00:43:50,900 --> 00:43:51,219
好的

1412
00:43:51,219 --> 00:43:53,079
所以那个固定评论就在下方

1413
00:43:53,079 --> 00:43:55,739
下周发布时一定要好好体验

1414
00:43:55,739 --> 00:43:56,340
4月1日

1415
00:43:56,340 --> 00:43:57,539
那就是周二吗

1416
00:43:57,539 --> 00:43:58,539
还是周三

1417
00:43:58,539 --> 00:43:59,780
我甚至不确定是星期几

1418
00:43:59,780 --> 00:44:01,940
但我知道销售即将在这里开启

1419
00:44:01,940 --> 00:44:02,460
送上我的祝福

1420
00:44:02,460 --> 00:44:03,500
祝你度过美好一天

共 2 条，按点赞数排序。

采集完成，该视频无弹幕