BV1p1GH6NEpw · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,060 --> 00:00:00,640 大家好 2 00:00:00,640 --> 00:00:02,259 欢迎来到本期解说 3 00:00:02,259 --> 00:00:04,200 今天咱们要聊点硬核的 4 00:00:04,200 --> 00:00:08,349 我们要直接深入私募信贷市场的最核心地带 5 00:00:08,349 --> 00:00:12,189 这期解说主要基于高盛对2026年第一季度 6 00:00:12,189 --> 00:00:15,759 直接贷款市场的一份全面深度的审查报告 7 00:00:15,759 --> 00:00:18,239 如果你最近一直在关注私募信贷 8 00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:20,100 你可能多多少少听过一些 9 00:00:20,100 --> 00:00:23,260 市场是不是出现裂痕了之类的传闻对吧 10 00:00:23,260 --> 00:00:24,309 但说实话 11 00:00:24,309 --> 00:00:27,769 数据呈现出的真实情况远比传闻要复杂得多 12 00:00:27,769 --> 00:00:29,469 也绝对更引人入胜 13 00:00:29,469 --> 00:00:31,670 我们将带你揭开信贷质量中 14 00:00:31,670 --> 00:00:33,969 那些令人非常惊讶的分化现象 15 00:00:33,969 --> 00:00:34,909 准备好了吗 16 00:00:34,909 --> 00:00:36,549 咱们直接进入正题 17 00:00:36,549 --> 00:00:39,030 在咱们一头扎进具体的细节之前呢 18 00:00:39,030 --> 00:00:42,710 我觉得非常有必要先让大家感受一下这个数字 19 00:00:42,710 --> 00:00:43,988 5000亿美元 20 00:00:43,988 --> 00:00:44,868 大家想一想 21 00:00:44,868 --> 00:00:46,908 咱们今天分析的可绝对不是什么 22 00:00:46,908 --> 00:00:48,479 随机抽样的小样本 23 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:51,439 我们正在审视的是由业务发展公司 24 00:00:51,439 --> 00:00:53,619 也就是大家常说的BDC持有的 25 00:00:53,619 --> 00:00:56,240 总价值约5000亿美元的私人贷款 26 00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:57,340 这意味着什么呢 27 00:00:57,340 --> 00:00:59,640 这大约占到了整个直接贷款行业 28 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:01,018 规模的1/3 29 00:01:01,018 --> 00:01:02,819 有了这么庞大的数据基础 30 00:01:02,819 --> 00:01:04,959 可以说咱们今天在这里看到的趋势 31 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:07,558 就是当下整个宏观信贷市场最真实 32 00:01:07,558 --> 00:01:09,280 最清晰的脉搏 33 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:10,019 好啦 34 00:01:10,019 --> 00:01:13,120 那咱们今天怎么拆解这份厚重的报道呢 35 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:14,599 一共分五步走 36 00:01:14,599 --> 00:01:16,890 首先是直接贷款概览 37 00:01:16,890 --> 00:01:21,189 接着咱们来重点解析一下非应计贷款的上升 38 00:01:21,189 --> 00:01:22,090 第三步 39 00:01:22,090 --> 00:01:25,859 看看资产管理人之间那些有意思的巨大分化 40 00:01:25,859 --> 00:01:28,819 第四步聊聊违约率和pk趋势 41 00:01:28,819 --> 00:01:32,478 最后展望一下零售基金的资金流出情况 42 00:01:32,478 --> 00:01:35,118 好咱们先从第一部分开始 43 00:01:35,118 --> 00:01:36,778 直接贷款概览 44 00:01:36,778 --> 00:01:37,899 轻微恶化 45 00:01:37,899 --> 00:01:39,170 分化加剧 46 00:01:39,170 --> 00:01:40,590 简单总结一下 47 00:01:40,590 --> 00:01:44,390 高盛2026年第一季度报告的主要宏观发现 48 00:01:44,390 --> 00:01:46,250 算是给大家先交个底 49 00:01:46,250 --> 00:01:48,890 首先我们确实看到了信用质量 50 00:01:48,890 --> 00:01:51,530 比起近期的低点出现了轻微的恶化 51 00:01:51,530 --> 00:01:53,170 其次非应季贷款 52 00:01:53,170 --> 00:01:56,250 目前正在向大约2%的历史平均水平 53 00:01:56,250 --> 00:01:57,239 缓慢靠拢 54 00:01:57,239 --> 00:01:57,959 第三点 55 00:01:57,959 --> 00:02:00,000 其实我觉得这可能是最关键的一点 56 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:02,200 不同的资产管理人之间表现 57 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:04,180 正在拉开巨大的差距 58 00:02:04,180 --> 00:02:06,819 最后呢资金流向方面正在发生转变 59 00:02:06,819 --> 00:02:10,280 预计零售端将会出现8~10percent的净流出 60 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:11,780 这就是咱们今天的大图景 61 00:02:11,780 --> 00:02:13,080 脑子里有了这个框架 62 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:14,769 咱们再往下看具体指标 63 00:02:14,769 --> 00:02:17,088 接着咱们来看第二部分 64 00:02:17,088 --> 00:02:19,310 非营记贷款上升解析 65 00:02:19,310 --> 00:02:21,129 也是自疫情以来 66 00:02:21,129 --> 00:02:24,028 市场出现的最大的环比增幅 67 00:02:24,028 --> 00:02:26,429 那为了确保大家都在同一个频道上 68 00:02:26,429 --> 00:02:28,669 特别是刚接触私募信贷的朋友 69 00:02:28,669 --> 00:02:29,628 咱们快速过一下 70 00:02:29,628 --> 00:02:32,729 定义到底什么是非应计贷款 71 00:02:32,729 --> 00:02:35,110 说白了就是借款人那边出问题 72 00:02:35,110 --> 00:02:36,629 停止支付利息了 73 00:02:36,629 --> 00:02:38,750 导致这笔贷款没法再产生 74 00:02:38,750 --> 00:02:40,490 一开始说好的那种收益 75 00:02:40,490 --> 00:02:42,770 你看一旦这些比率开始上升 76 00:02:42,770 --> 00:02:46,490 就意味着借款人的基本面正承受着不小的压力 77 00:02:46,490 --> 00:02:48,370 未来能不能把钱全收回来 78 00:02:48,370 --> 00:02:49,469 就要打个问号了 79 00:02:49,469 --> 00:02:50,409 也就是为什么 80 00:02:50,409 --> 00:02:53,849 现在整个市场都在死死盯着这个指标的原因 81 00:02:53,849 --> 00:02:55,629 你看这张图上的数据 82 00:02:55,629 --> 00:02:58,030 注意这个特别明显的跳升 83 00:02:58,030 --> 00:02:59,229 第一季度的行业 84 00:02:59,229 --> 00:03:02,449 非应季贷款环比直接上升了53个基点 85 00:03:02,449 --> 00:03:03,750 达到了1.87 86 00:03:03,750 --> 00:03:04,490 Percent 87 00:03:04,490 --> 00:03:05,289 说实话 88 00:03:05,289 --> 00:03:08,409 这确实是自疫情以来的最大环比增幅 89 00:03:08,409 --> 00:03:10,870 乍一听是不是感觉心里咯噔一下 90 00:03:10,870 --> 00:03:12,139 觉得有点吓人 91 00:03:12,139 --> 00:03:13,979 但是咱们退后一步 92 00:03:13,979 --> 00:03:14,819 客观看待 93 00:03:14,819 --> 00:03:16,400 即便涨了这么多 94 00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:19,659 它实际上还是略微低于大约2.0percent 95 00:03:19,659 --> 00:03:21,139 的历史平均水平 96 00:03:21,139 --> 00:03:22,500 所以大家要知道 97 00:03:22,500 --> 00:03:25,979 市场目前经历的其实更像是一种回归常态 98 00:03:25,979 --> 00:03:27,959 而不是什么全面崩盘 99 00:03:27,959 --> 00:03:29,878 接下来是第三部分 100 00:03:29,878 --> 00:03:31,399 非常有意思的一点 101 00:03:31,399 --> 00:03:33,990 资产管理人的巨大分化 102 00:03:33,990 --> 00:03:38,520 你会发现并不是所有的基金都在同等的变造 103 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:41,020 我们来看看这是怎么引进的 104 00:03:41,020 --> 00:03:44,560 高盛的数据在这里揭示了一个巨大的分歧 105 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:47,719 简直可以说市场处于一种割裂状态 106 00:03:47,719 --> 00:03:50,099 你看这些公开上市的BDC 107 00:03:50,099 --> 00:03:53,280 他们的非应季贷款率已经冲到了3.23 108 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:53,780 Percent 109 00:03:53,780 --> 00:03:56,729 明显高于他们2.6percent的历史平均值 110 00:03:56,729 --> 00:03:58,610 但是你转头去看看 111 00:03:58,610 --> 00:04:01,430 那些面向零售资金的非上市比DC 112 00:04:01,430 --> 00:04:03,490 也就是常说的长青基金 113 00:04:03,490 --> 00:04:06,050 他们的非应季贷款率竟然只有1.26 114 00:04:06,050 --> 00:04:06,530 Percent 115 00:04:06,530 --> 00:04:09,800 依然乖乖的待在1.7percent的历史均值下方 116 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:13,550 上市和非上市两边完全是冰火两重天 117 00:04:13,550 --> 00:04:15,009 那大家可能要问了 118 00:04:15,009 --> 00:04:16,310 为什么会这样呢 119 00:04:16,310 --> 00:04:18,389 答案其实就三个字 120 00:04:18,389 --> 00:04:19,769 集中度 121 00:04:19,769 --> 00:04:22,249 也就是少数几家主要管理人的 122 00:04:22,249 --> 00:04:24,408 几笔集中的大额贷款 123 00:04:24,408 --> 00:04:26,970 直接拉高了整个大盘的数据 124 00:04:26,970 --> 00:04:29,310 报告里非常中立地指出了这一点 125 00:04:29,310 --> 00:04:32,649 由黑石BX和KKR管理的基金 126 00:04:32,649 --> 00:04:35,538 在非应季贷款上出现了显著的上升 127 00:04:35,538 --> 00:04:37,658 但如果我们把黑石和KK2 128 00:04:37,658 --> 00:04:39,819 这两个巨头的数据单拎出去 129 00:04:39,819 --> 00:04:42,038 剩下的前20大BDC 130 00:04:42,038 --> 00:04:43,358 他们的非英居贷款 131 00:04:43,358 --> 00:04:45,738 其实只稍微上升了28个基点 132 00:04:45,738 --> 00:04:47,800 仅仅达到1.59克白 133 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:49,420 这就直接导致了一个结果 134 00:04:49,420 --> 00:04:51,579 前20大BDC之间的标准差 135 00:04:51,579 --> 00:04:53,740 也就是大家业绩的参差程度 136 00:04:53,740 --> 00:04:56,038 达到了2023年以来的最高点 137 00:04:56,038 --> 00:04:57,278 这告诉我们什么 138 00:04:57,278 --> 00:04:58,959 在现在的市场环境下 139 00:04:58,959 --> 00:05:02,600 选对管理人真的比什么都重要好啦 140 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:04,579 看完了有些恶化的一面儿 141 00:05:04,579 --> 00:05:07,199 咱们换个视角进入第四部分 142 00:05:07,199 --> 00:05:09,298 违约率与PIK趋势 143 00:05:09,298 --> 00:05:12,220 来看看市场里的稳定剂都在哪儿 144 00:05:12,220 --> 00:05:14,199 这就很能说明问题了 145 00:05:14,199 --> 00:05:17,759 虽然我们刚才一直说非应计贷款在往上走 146 00:05:17,759 --> 00:05:19,110 但你猜怎么着 147 00:05:19,110 --> 00:05:22,910 银团贷款市场中的杠杆贷款实际违约率 148 00:05:22,910 --> 00:05:26,250 截至4月份仅仅只有0.55percent 149 00:05:26,250 --> 00:05:27,329 大家想想 150 00:05:27,329 --> 00:05:30,410 相比于1.8percent的历史平均水平 151 00:05:30,410 --> 00:05:33,089 这个数字真的可以说是微乎其微 152 00:05:33,089 --> 00:05:37,000 这完美的解释了为什么市场完全没有恐慌情绪 153 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:39,939 因为这表明借款人即使手头紧 154 00:05:39,939 --> 00:05:40,939 面临压力 155 00:05:40,939 --> 00:05:44,449 但也远远没走到彻底违约躺平的绝境 156 00:05:44,449 --> 00:05:47,329 他们实际上正在寻找其他的替代方案 157 00:05:47,329 --> 00:05:48,550 来渡过难关 158 00:05:48,550 --> 00:05:49,670 而在这其中 159 00:05:49,670 --> 00:05:53,250 最常见也最好用的替代方案就是PIK了 160 00:05:53,250 --> 00:05:55,110 全称叫实物支付 161 00:05:55,110 --> 00:05:57,730 通俗地给没听过的朋友解释一下 162 00:05:57,730 --> 00:06:00,379 这就像是用更多的新债务 163 00:06:00,379 --> 00:06:02,180 去支付当前债务的利息 164 00:06:02,180 --> 00:06:04,110 而不是直接掏出现金 165 00:06:04,110 --> 00:06:05,709 这是直接贷款领域 166 00:06:05,709 --> 00:06:08,079 大家很常用的一种灵活性工具 167 00:06:08,079 --> 00:06:10,959 等于说是给借款人一点喘息的空间 168 00:06:10,959 --> 00:06:12,199 避免大家撕破脸 169 00:06:12,199 --> 00:06:13,740 直接走向违约 170 00:06:13,740 --> 00:06:17,620 那么这个PIK现在用的频繁吗 171 00:06:17,620 --> 00:06:19,060 令人惊讶的是 172 00:06:19,060 --> 00:06:21,240 它的使用情况非常稳定 173 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:23,420 目前带有PIK选项的贷款 174 00:06:23,420 --> 00:06:25,839 依然占到未尝BDC贷款的10% 175 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:26,639 3.0左右 176 00:06:26,639 --> 00:06:28,220 基本没怎么动过 177 00:06:28,220 --> 00:06:30,600 如果咱们按行业来拆解一下 178 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:32,470 你会发现医疗保健 179 00:06:32,470 --> 00:06:35,230 科技和媒体行业的公司是绝对的 180 00:06:35,230 --> 00:06:36,509 PIK使用大户 181 00:06:37,019 --> 00:06:40,060 不得不说科技和媒体公司确实是出了名儿 182 00:06:40,060 --> 00:06:41,819 这喜欢用鲜债来还旧债 183 00:06:41,819 --> 00:06:44,199 这多少点黑色幽默对吧 184 00:06:44,199 --> 00:06:46,399 不过有一点值得咱们注意 185 00:06:46,399 --> 00:06:48,660 这些PIK贷款的按市值计价 186 00:06:48,660 --> 00:06:52,139 MTM略微下降到了93.5% 187 00:06:52,139 --> 00:06:53,540 这个意味着什么 188 00:06:53,540 --> 00:06:56,019 说明市场虽然接受这种做法 189 00:06:56,019 --> 00:06:58,060 但在对这些资产估值的时候 190 00:06:58,060 --> 00:07:00,220 心里已经变得更加紧张了 191 00:07:00,220 --> 00:07:01,240 从这上面 192 00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:03,699 其实又见证了我们前面提到的那种 193 00:07:03,699 --> 00:07:05,279 市场分化的主题 194 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:06,379 你看数据 195 00:07:06,379 --> 00:07:08,360 上市BDC的PIK收入 196 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:10,930 占了他们总投资收入的7.7% 197 00:07:10,930 --> 00:07:15,350 而那些非上市BDC的比例呢仅仅只有4.3 198 00:07:15,350 --> 00:07:17,310 尽管这两类基金在本季度 199 00:07:17,310 --> 00:07:19,410 对PIK的依赖都有所下降 200 00:07:19,410 --> 00:07:20,629 但很显然 201 00:07:20,629 --> 00:07:23,910 上市基金在很大程度上依然更加依赖 202 00:07:23,910 --> 00:07:26,819 这种纸面上的非现金的利息收入 203 00:07:26,819 --> 00:07:29,120 最后咱们来到第五部分 204 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:33,319 也就是前瞻的部分零售基金资金流出展望 205 00:07:33,319 --> 00:07:36,100 让我们根据高盛的数据来预测一下 206 00:07:36,100 --> 00:07:37,699 今年剩下的时间里 207 00:07:37,699 --> 00:07:39,589 钱都会往哪儿走 208 00:07:39,589 --> 00:07:41,470 这里的关键点在于 209 00:07:41,470 --> 00:07:44,129 散户和财富管理渠道的资金 210 00:07:44,129 --> 00:07:46,389 现在正在大幅度的撤退 211 00:07:46,389 --> 00:07:47,449 你看这数据 212 00:07:47,449 --> 00:07:48,629 进入第二季度 213 00:07:48,629 --> 00:07:50,610 整个行业的资金总流入量 214 00:07:50,610 --> 00:07:52,750 跟第一季度的火热情况相比 215 00:07:52,750 --> 00:07:53,750 直接腰斩 216 00:07:53,750 --> 00:07:54,408 还不止 217 00:07:54,408 --> 00:07:56,490 降幅超过了60% 218 00:07:56,490 --> 00:07:57,389 高盛预计 219 00:07:57,389 --> 00:07:59,529 目前这个领域年化的总流入率 220 00:07:59,529 --> 00:08:02,029 大概只有可怜的10~12趴了 221 00:08:02,029 --> 00:08:05,759 可以说是流入的水龙头正在被狠狠的拧紧 222 00:08:05,759 --> 00:08:07,180 进来的钱少了 223 00:08:07,180 --> 00:08:10,288 那想出去的钱呢压力反而在剧增 224 00:08:10,288 --> 00:08:11,889 咱们顺着高盛的思路 225 00:08:11,889 --> 00:08:13,649 按时间顺序来算一笔账 226 00:08:13,649 --> 00:08:14,439 第一步 227 00:08:14,439 --> 00:08:16,160 投资者现在想要拿回钱 228 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:19,199 的赎回请求已经飙升到了惊人的50% 229 00:08:19,199 --> 00:08:19,839 年化率 230 00:08:19,839 --> 00:08:20,889 大家想跑 231 00:08:20,889 --> 00:08:21,870 但是第二步 232 00:08:21,870 --> 00:08:25,430 因为这些长青基金都是带有流动性保护机制的 233 00:08:25,430 --> 00:08:27,779 他们不可能让你一下子全取走 234 00:08:27,779 --> 00:08:30,079 所以会把实际允许赎回的额度 235 00:08:30,079 --> 00:08:32,019 卡死在每年20% 236 00:08:32,019 --> 00:08:34,298 也就是每个季度最多5% 237 00:08:34,298 --> 00:08:35,298 那么第三步 238 00:08:35,298 --> 00:08:38,298 用这惨淡的极少资金流入去抵消掉 239 00:08:38,298 --> 00:08:40,938 这20%被卡住上限的硬性流出 240 00:08:40,938 --> 00:08:42,700 高顺就得出了一个结论 241 00:08:42,700 --> 00:08:44,480 在今年剩下的时间里 242 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:46,279 私募信贷的长青产品 243 00:08:46,279 --> 00:08:49,889 注定要面临每年8~10percent的持续净流出 244 00:08:49,889 --> 00:08:50,809 当然了 245 00:08:50,809 --> 00:08:51,649 咱们看报告 246 00:08:51,649 --> 00:08:52,909 不能只看眼下 247 00:08:52,909 --> 00:08:55,210 最后一个不容忽视的预警信号 248 00:08:55,210 --> 00:08:58,100 就藏在各家机构的内部观察名单里 249 00:08:58,100 --> 00:08:59,559 虽然我们前面说了 250 00:08:59,559 --> 00:09:01,159 目前的违约率非常低 251 00:09:01,159 --> 00:09:04,220 但是作为未来压力可能增大的一个领先指标 252 00:09:04,220 --> 00:09:05,399 报告特意指出 253 00:09:05,399 --> 00:09:07,379 那些标价低于成本85帕 254 00:09:07,379 --> 00:09:11,269 但目前还在勉强计息的贷款正在逐渐增加 255 00:09:11,269 --> 00:09:13,529 在皮鲁J向书记的管理人那里 256 00:09:13,529 --> 00:09:14,629 表现不如预期的 257 00:09:14,629 --> 00:09:17,389 贷款余额已经悄悄攀升到了5.4帕 258 00:09:17,389 --> 00:09:19,090 这其实是在提醒大家 259 00:09:19,090 --> 00:09:20,450 在未来的几个季度里 260 00:09:20,450 --> 00:09:23,539 非应计贷款可能还会继续慢慢向上爬 261 00:09:23,539 --> 00:09:25,340 好了总结一下 262 00:09:25,340 --> 00:09:28,720 今天咱们进行了一次从宏观市场盖帽 263 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:32,799 一直深浅到微观贷款指标的深度之旅 264 00:09:32,799 --> 00:09:35,820 整个数据非常清晰地告诉我们一件事 265 00:09:35,820 --> 00:09:38,899 私募信贷并没有像外界传言的那样崩溃 266 00:09:38,899 --> 00:09:40,730 它只是在常态化 267 00:09:40,730 --> 00:09:42,750 但在这一波常态化的浪潮里 268 00:09:42,750 --> 00:09:45,990 资产管理人的优胜劣汰正在疯狂加速 269 00:09:45,990 --> 00:09:49,200 这就给我们留下了一个极其引人深思的问题 270 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:52,080 随着信贷趋势不可避免地进一步回归 271 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:53,039 历史平均线 272 00:09:53,039 --> 00:09:56,299 以及不同管理人之间表现差异越来越大 273 00:09:56,299 --> 00:09:59,279 那些拥有强大机构资本作为后盾的基金 274 00:09:59,279 --> 00:10:00,840 他们表现出的稳定性 275 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:03,059 到底能不能成功压倒零售 276 00:10:03,059 --> 00:10:05,589 资金流出所带来的剧烈波动性 277 00:10:05,589 --> 00:10:09,469 这个悬念无疑将直接决定私募信贷市场 278 00:10:09,469 --> 00:10:10,908 下一章的剧情走向 279 00:10:10,908 --> 00:10:13,490 大家觉得呢感谢收看本期解说 280 00:10:13,490 --> 00:10:15,320 咱们下期干货再见
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