【Financial Education】单价100美元以下，这10只股票现在闭眼入！

1
00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:01,260
这太疯狂了

2
00:00:01,260 --> 00:00:02,319
过去三年

3
00:00:02,319 --> 00:00:04,660
已经观察到公众持股量

4
00:00:04,660 --> 00:00:06,339
这就是最好的例子对吧

5
00:00:06,339 --> 00:00:09,910
过去三年大幅波动

6
00:00:09,910 --> 00:00:10,739
公众持股量

7
00:00:10,739 --> 00:00:12,339
如果回溯三年前

8
00:00:12,339 --> 00:00:13,478
大约一点几

9
00:00:13,478 --> 00:00:14,278
两点多一点

10
00:00:14,278 --> 00:00:17,689
今天的三百万美元投资组合已增至三十三万美元

11
00:00:17,689 --> 00:00:19,928
增值超过两百万美元

12
00:00:19,928 --> 00:00:21,408
仅仅过去三年

13
00:00:21,408 --> 00:00:25,010
如果总计可能上涨七万美元

14
00:00:25,010 --> 00:00:26,629
加上过去三年

15
00:00:26,629 --> 00:00:29,070
过去三年制作了数百万煎饼

16
00:00:29,070 --> 00:00:30,570
这简直疯狂了各位

17
00:00:30,570 --> 00:00:32,590
这种疯狂还会持续相当久

18
00:00:32,590 --> 00:00:33,750
在今天的视频中

19
00:00:33,750 --> 00:00:36,009
我将介绍十只股票

20
00:00:36,009 --> 00:00:39,090
我现在推荐的十大买入股票

21
00:00:39,090 --> 00:00:41,070
每股不足一百美元

22
00:00:41,070 --> 00:00:44,369
视频中的每只股票每股均低于一百美元

23
00:00:44,369 --> 00:00:46,600
其中一些股票远低于一百美元

24
00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:48,380
在我看来

25
00:00:48,380 --> 00:00:51,979
这些股票在未来三年有巨大上涨潜力

26
00:00:51,979 --> 00:00:53,219
此外在今天的视频中

27
00:00:53,219 --> 00:00:55,380
今天视频中另一个令人兴奋的部分是

28
00:00:55,380 --> 00:00:59,049
我还将给出这些股票的价格目标

29
00:00:59,049 --> 00:01:00,329
现在我们将逐一分析这些股票

30
00:01:00,329 --> 00:01:01,090
快速讲解

31
00:01:01,090 --> 00:01:03,530
我不想花六小时做这个视频

32
00:01:03,530 --> 00:01:04,950
因为我们需要覆盖太多股票

33
00:01:04,950 --> 00:01:08,709
我们将快速讲解并简明介绍公司

34
00:01:08,709 --> 00:01:11,409
我将给出这些公司的价格目标

35
00:01:11,409 --> 00:01:12,879
希望大家喜欢这个视频

36
00:01:12,879 --> 00:01:14,980
我一整天都在为你们准备这个视频

37
00:01:14,980 --> 00:01:17,040
我唯一需要你们做的一件事

38
00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:20,290
请花几秒点赞

39
00:01:20,290 --> 00:01:22,670
点击那个点赞图标

40
00:01:22,670 --> 00:01:24,170
这就是我需要你们做的

41
00:01:24,170 --> 00:01:26,209
希望大家珍惜我制作这个视频

42
00:01:26,209 --> 00:01:29,239
分享这十只股票及其价格目标等信息

43
00:01:29,239 --> 00:01:30,760
只需要点击那个点赞按钮

44
00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:31,140
好的

45
00:01:31,140 --> 00:01:32,659
同时请订阅频道

46
00:01:32,659 --> 00:01:33,620
如果你还没订阅

47
00:01:33,620 --> 00:01:34,900
完全免费

48
00:01:34,900 --> 00:01:37,060
看起来大约四分之一

49
00:01:37,060 --> 00:01:40,140
所以大约四分之一的日常观众

50
00:01:40,140 --> 00:01:41,870
并未订阅频道

51
00:01:41,870 --> 00:01:43,769
所以请务必订阅频道

52
00:01:43,769 --> 00:01:44,969
女士们先生们

53
00:01:44,969 --> 00:01:45,290
好的

54
00:01:45,290 --> 00:01:45,709
好的

55
00:01:45,709 --> 00:01:46,510
我们有很多内容要讲

56
00:01:46,510 --> 00:01:47,989
那我们就直接开始讲解吧

57
00:01:47,989 --> 00:01:50,769
这十只股票中第一只值得关注的

58
00:01:50,769 --> 00:01:51,629
价格低于一百美元

59
00:01:51,629 --> 00:01:54,109
是 Celsius Holdings

60
00:01:54,109 --> 00:01:54,609
股票代码

61
00:01:54,609 --> 00:01:56,549
代码是 C E L H

62
00:01:56,549 --> 00:01:58,180
这是一家能量饮料公司

63
00:01:58,180 --> 00:01:58,700
我说

64
00:01:58,700 --> 00:02:01,079
可以说绝大多数观看这个视频的人

65
00:02:01,079 --> 00:02:02,700
即使你不喝能量饮料

66
00:02:02,700 --> 00:02:03,980
你也听说过 Celsius 能量饮料

67
00:02:03,980 --> 00:02:06,799
过去五年它已经变得非常流行

68
00:02:06,799 --> 00:02:08,560
他们现在还拥有 Alani 品牌

69
00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:12,240
这是一个在过去三年迅速崛起的能量饮料品牌

70
00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:13,099
具体来说

71
00:02:13,099 --> 00:02:15,180
他们现在还拥有 Rockstar 能量

72
00:02:15,180 --> 00:02:17,199
他们最近从百事公司收购了该品牌

73
00:02:17,199 --> 00:02:20,469
Rockstar 能量多年前被百事收购

74
00:02:20,469 --> 00:02:21,770
一度陷入停滞

75
00:02:21,770 --> 00:02:22,849
没什么进展

76
00:02:22,849 --> 00:02:27,409
而 Celsius 可能在未来几年重新激活这个品牌

77
00:02:27,409 --> 00:02:28,330
关于 Celsius 的关键点

78
00:02:28,330 --> 00:02:29,610
使其股票极具吸引力

79
00:02:29,610 --> 00:02:32,610
目前是 P/E-K 值为34的股票

80
00:02:32,610 --> 00:02:35,060
目前股票的市盈率是20

81
00:02:35,060 --> 00:02:37,120
Celsius 当前市盈率24倍

82
00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:38,819
这家公司应实现营收增长

83
00:02:38,819 --> 00:02:39,360
利润增长

84
00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:42,310
未来多年保持两位数增速

85
00:02:42,310 --> 00:02:43,610
无论经济状况如何

86
00:02:43,610 --> 00:02:44,349
经济好时

87
00:02:44,349 --> 00:02:45,169
经济差时

88
00:02:45,169 --> 00:02:47,849
因此 Celsius 应能提升业绩

89
00:02:47,849 --> 00:02:48,650
两位数增长

90
00:02:48,650 --> 00:02:51,610
未来多年持续增长

91
00:02:51,610 --> 00:02:53,560
没错 Celsius

92
00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:55,979
如果我们看过去十二个月的营收数据

93
00:02:55,979 --> 00:02:57,219
这就是当前情况

94
00:02:57,219 --> 00:02:58,379
这是预期目标

95
00:02:58,379 --> 00:02:58,900
红线

96
00:02:58,900 --> 00:03:00,500
我们参考 thousandxstocks.com 数据

97
00:03:00,500 --> 00:03:00,879
目前

98
00:03:00,879 --> 00:03:03,899
红线是分析师的悲观假设

99
00:03:03,899 --> 00:03:04,938
金线

100
00:03:04,938 --> 00:03:07,399
这是平均值

101
00:03:07,399 --> 00:03:08,818
大致处于中间位置

102
00:03:08,818 --> 00:03:11,998
而绿色则代表如果摄氏度表现极佳

103
00:03:11,998 --> 00:03:13,569
这就是他们的收入趋势所在

104
00:03:13,569 --> 00:03:15,129
即使在更好的情景下

105
00:03:15,129 --> 00:03:17,449
收入仍将大幅增长

106
00:03:17,449 --> 00:03:19,930
这是能量饮料公司如摄氏度应有的表现

107
00:03:19,930 --> 00:03:21,860
对于一般公司也是如此

108
00:03:21,860 --> 00:03:25,620
毛利率在过去几年实际上略有上升

109
00:03:25,620 --> 00:03:27,569
我认为将出现大幅增长

110
00:03:27,569 --> 00:03:27,930
嗯

111
00:03:27,930 --> 00:03:28,590
在未来

112
00:03:28,590 --> 00:03:29,870
我们可以称之为两到三年

113
00:03:29,870 --> 00:03:31,129
关于毛利率

114
00:03:31,129 --> 00:03:31,789
净利润率

115
00:03:31,789 --> 00:03:33,870
尤其是现在他们已达成协议

116
00:03:33,870 --> 00:03:37,219
我不认为摄氏度需要短期内收购其他公司

117
00:03:37,219 --> 00:03:39,840
他们将在分销业务上忙得不可开交

118
00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:43,269
摄氏度品牌在美国及国际市场的持续扩张

119
00:03:43,269 --> 00:03:45,709
以及lonnie品牌的分销业务

120
00:03:45,709 --> 00:03:47,169
显然借助百事网络

121
00:03:47,169 --> 00:03:48,269
现在他们与百事合作

122
00:03:48,269 --> 00:03:48,729
非常紧密

123
00:03:48,729 --> 00:03:51,699
百事已成为摄氏度的重要投资者

124
00:03:51,699 --> 00:03:52,199
好的

125
00:03:52,199 --> 00:03:53,300
每股收益

126
00:03:53,300 --> 00:03:54,280
这就是我们目前的状况

127
00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:55,120
在十二个月内

128
00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:55,759
以十二个月为基准

129
00:03:55,759 --> 00:03:57,800
未来几个季度预计将达到这一水平

130
00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:02,609
女士们先生们注意接下来几年的每股收益爆发增长

131
00:04:02,609 --> 00:04:04,729
尤其是在接下来的一年里

132
00:04:04,729 --> 00:04:05,680
目前

133
00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:06,419
自由现金流

134
00:04:06,419 --> 00:04:06,599
同样

135
00:04:06,599 --> 00:04:09,259
公司将显著提升自由现金流

136
00:04:09,259 --> 00:04:10,419
所有收购已完成

137
00:04:10,419 --> 00:04:12,460
并处理了所有终止条款

138
00:04:12,460 --> 00:04:15,020
此时他们已完成了大量工作

139
00:04:15,020 --> 00:04:16,439
这为每股收益奠定基础

140
00:04:16,439 --> 00:04:17,339
自由现金流

141
00:04:17,339 --> 00:04:18,839
这些方面都将大幅改善

142
00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:22,480
公司营业利润将迎来巨大回升

143
00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:22,920
再次强调

144
00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:23,519
lonnie交易

145
00:04:23,519 --> 00:04:25,548
摇滚之星交易已完成

146
00:04:25,588 --> 00:04:28,389
关注营业利润显著增长

147
00:04:28,389 --> 00:04:30,389
不仅在2026年

148
00:04:30,389 --> 00:04:32,038
未来几年也将持续

149
00:04:32,038 --> 00:04:34,399
公司股东权益持续攀升

150
00:04:34,399 --> 00:04:37,220
随着现金大量注入公司

151
00:04:37,220 --> 00:04:39,519
股东权益应继续增长

152
00:04:39,519 --> 00:04:40,100
请记住

153
00:04:40,100 --> 00:04:43,680
未来几年他们可能会进行大规模股票回购

154
00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:44,560
原因在于

155
00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:47,699
我认为他们未来几年不会收购其他能量饮料品牌

156
00:04:47,699 --> 00:04:50,048
因为他们现有的品牌已经足够繁忙

157
00:04:50,048 --> 00:04:51,869
此外像

158
00:04:51,869 --> 00:04:53,249
如果看看当前股价

159
00:04:53,249 --> 00:04:53,488
我说

160
00:04:53,488 --> 00:04:56,168
几年前这只股票曾高达每股100美元

161
00:04:56,168 --> 00:04:59,000
所以现在股价处于低位

162
00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:01,980
公司应尽快回购所有流通股

163
00:05:01,980 --> 00:05:02,959
我预计十二到二十

164
00:05:02,959 --> 00:05:04,790
接下来四个月左右

165
00:05:04,790 --> 00:05:06,610
我对Celsius的价格目标是什么

166
00:05:06,610 --> 00:05:07,709
请记住

167
00:05:07,709 --> 00:05:10,819
当前股价在熊市情景下约为3-4美元

168
00:05:10,819 --> 00:05:12,259
我定为4-5美元

169
00:05:12,259 --> 00:05:13,800
即使在熊市情况下

170
00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:15,139
如果情况比预期更糟

171
00:05:15,139 --> 00:05:16,069
我预期

172
00:05:16,069 --> 00:05:18,589
股票仍会显著上涨

173
00:05:18,589 --> 00:05:21,529
未来三年仍将跑赢标普500

174
00:05:21,529 --> 00:05:22,670
至少保持同步

175
00:05:22,670 --> 00:05:24,449
即使在悲观假设下

176
00:05:24,449 --> 00:05:25,250
我的基准情景

177
00:05:25,250 --> 00:05:26,410
这只是委婉说法

178
00:05:26,410 --> 00:05:27,290
我实际预期

179
00:05:27,290 --> 00:05:29,730
我预计Celsius三年后将达75美元区间

180
00:05:29,730 --> 00:05:30,668
三年后

181
00:05:30,668 --> 00:05:32,569
我的乐观情景是

182
00:05:32,569 --> 00:05:33,389
历史新高

183
00:05:33,389 --> 00:05:36,810
三年后将突破100美元

184
00:05:36,810 --> 00:05:39,009
这张图片来自我的新家

185
00:05:39,009 --> 00:05:43,589
我今天发布视频后会去那里查看

186
00:05:43,589 --> 00:05:45,709
新家已准备就绪

187
00:05:45,709 --> 00:05:47,389
但我们还有许多项目在进行

188
00:05:47,389 --> 00:05:49,050
我们很可能下个月搬入

189
00:05:49,050 --> 00:05:49,550
好的

190
00:05:49,550 --> 00:05:55,850
今日十大股票中的第二只

191
00:05:55,850 --> 00:05:58,329
Elf美妆公司市值37亿美元

192
00:05:58,329 --> 00:06:00,149
当前股价60美元

193
00:06:00,149 --> 00:06:01,430
天啊

194
00:06:01,430 --> 00:06:02,149
这只股票严重被低估

195
00:06:02,149 --> 00:06:03,490
市盈率仅为4倍

196
00:06:03,490 --> 00:06:06,250
Elf未来数年营收增长两位数

197
00:06:06,250 --> 00:06:07,790
利润持续增长

198
00:06:07,790 --> 00:06:09,870
未来多年

199
00:06:09,870 --> 00:06:10,569
甚至延续至2030年代

200
00:06:10,569 --> 00:06:12,629
我们预计将持续到2030年代

201
00:06:12,629 --> 00:06:15,750
因此，精灵公司以低于二十美元四分之一的价格交易

202
00:06:15,750 --> 00:06:17,779
现在这种情况简直可笑

203
00:06:17,779 --> 00:06:19,779
现在简直令人发笑

204
00:06:19,779 --> 00:06:20,540
在短期内

205
00:06:20,540 --> 00:06:22,279
这些股票可能发生什么谁也说不准

206
00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:23,660
你今天会得到一只精灵股票

207
00:06:23,660 --> 00:06:24,279
六十美元

208
00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:25,560
如果股市崩盘

209
00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:27,079
谁知道可能跌到四十美元

210
00:06:27,079 --> 00:06:28,870
市场可能疯狂波动

211
00:06:28,870 --> 00:06:30,529
这价格荒谬至极

212
00:06:30,529 --> 00:06:31,329
精灵公司的交易价格

213
00:06:31,329 --> 00:06:33,050
但这并不意味着不会更荒谬

214
00:06:33,050 --> 00:06:33,769
去年

215
00:06:33,769 --> 00:06:35,870
精灵股价曾达每股四十九美元

216
00:06:35,870 --> 00:06:37,470
每股四十九美元

217
00:06:37,470 --> 00:06:38,649
这简直太离谱了

218
00:06:38,649 --> 00:06:40,819
只能用荒谬来形容定价

219
00:06:40,819 --> 00:06:43,019
但短期内可能发生什么谁也难料

220
00:06:43,019 --> 00:06:44,220
关于股价走势

221
00:06:44,220 --> 00:06:47,579
故事的寓意是精灵未来几年仍有巨大增长空间

222
00:06:47,579 --> 00:06:49,379
股票大幅上涨是可能的

223
00:06:49,379 --> 00:06:52,579
关于精灵公司你需要理解的关键点

224
00:06:52,579 --> 00:06:52,660
好的

225
00:06:52,660 --> 00:06:53,480
这是一家化妆品公司

226
00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:54,060
美容公司

227
00:06:54,060 --> 00:06:55,860
你需要了解几点

228
00:06:55,860 --> 00:06:57,160
他们收购了Road Beauty

229
00:06:57,160 --> 00:06:59,019
这是哈雷拥有的品牌

230
00:06:59,019 --> 00:06:59,139
嗯

231
00:06:59,139 --> 00:07:00,730
曾由哈雷·贝贝拥有

232
00:07:00,730 --> 00:07:05,769
该品牌在美国持续火爆

233
00:07:05,769 --> 00:07:06,850
他们即将进军

234
00:07:06,850 --> 00:07:07,350
你知道的

235
00:07:07,350 --> 00:07:08,949
大幅扩展业务

236
00:07:08,949 --> 00:07:10,329
可能还包括国际市场

237
00:07:10,329 --> 00:07:12,779
此外他们的产品

238
00:07:12,779 --> 00:07:15,060
诺托里姆品牌也很成功

239
00:07:15,060 --> 00:07:19,000
精灵还拥有沐浴露等产品线

240
00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:19,839
现在

241
00:07:19,839 --> 00:07:20,899
精灵公司的另一点

242
00:07:20,899 --> 00:07:24,040
产品定价极具吸引力

243
00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:26,839
他们不追求高端路线

244
00:07:26,839 --> 00:07:28,860
却以优质产品著称

245
00:07:28,860 --> 00:07:30,139
低价优质

246
00:07:30,139 --> 00:07:32,639
这是精灵公司过去十二个月的营收

247
00:07:32,639 --> 00:07:33,879
这就是当前情况

248
00:07:33,879 --> 00:07:36,379
这是精灵公司预期的发展路径

249
00:07:36,379 --> 00:07:37,540
毛利率优秀

250
00:07:37,540 --> 00:07:38,600
即便面临关税风波

251
00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:41,360
这家公司未来的净利润率将会大幅增长

252
00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:43,000
在未来十二到二十四个月内

253
00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:44,240
这是我接下来要分析的另一个案例

254
00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:47,350
你们知道，Elf未来几年还会收购其他品牌吗

255
00:07:47,350 --> 00:07:48,529
你们知道在未来两到三年

256
00:07:48,529 --> 00:07:50,670
我不这么认为，一切皆有可能

257
00:07:50,670 --> 00:07:52,829
但我认为他们接下来会忙得不可开交

258
00:07:52,829 --> 00:07:55,060
面对Elf、Road和Notorium

259
00:07:55,060 --> 00:07:57,160
我认为接下来的几年

260
00:07:57,160 --> 00:07:58,240
将会非常忙碌

261
00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:00,889
除非有公司以极低价格交易

262
00:08:00,889 --> 00:08:01,108
非常便宜

263
00:08:01,108 --> 00:08:01,829
荒谬的价格

264
00:08:01,829 --> 00:08:03,408
我不认为他们会收购其他公司

265
00:08:03,408 --> 00:08:05,149
这意味着

266
00:08:05,149 --> 00:08:05,790
你们知道

267
00:08:05,790 --> 00:08:08,310
最终他们的资产负债表将现金激增

268
00:08:08,310 --> 00:08:11,579
除非他们进行大规模股票回购并消耗这些现金

269
00:08:11,579 --> 00:08:13,220
这是每股收益的历史数据

270
00:08:13,220 --> 00:08:16,889
基于十二个月的基准，每股收益预计在未来一年达到

271
00:08:16,889 --> 00:08:19,329
自由现金流持续爆发增长

272
00:08:19,329 --> 00:08:20,529
你还没见过真正的表现

273
00:08:20,529 --> 00:08:23,110
只需观察未来十二到二十四个月的自由现金流

274
00:08:23,110 --> 00:08:24,620
每股自由现金流

275
00:08:24,620 --> 00:08:26,839
这是我们基于十二个月基准的现状

276
00:08:26,839 --> 00:08:29,949
显然远低于历史底部的市盈率

277
00:08:29,949 --> 00:08:30,348
看看

278
00:08:30,348 --> 00:08:31,228
你正在以极低价格买入股票

279
00:08:31,228 --> 00:08:31,889
超低价格

280
00:08:31,889 --> 00:08:33,568
自由现金流比以往任何时候都好

281
00:08:33,568 --> 00:08:34,808
每股自由现金流

282
00:08:34,808 --> 00:08:36,750
我的意思是营收正在飙升

283
00:08:36,750 --> 00:08:38,149
Elf正处于激动人心的阶段

284
00:08:38,149 --> 00:08:39,110
利润率将大幅提升

285
00:08:39,110 --> 00:08:42,049
而且我们以极低价格购入股票

286
00:08:42,049 --> 00:08:42,350
没错

287
00:08:42,350 --> 00:08:43,500
这才是你应该关注的

288
00:08:43,500 --> 00:08:45,059
公司经营现金流

289
00:08:45,059 --> 00:08:46,840
这是我们基于十二个月基准的现状

290
00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:50,529
只需观察未来十二到二十四个月的经营利润走向

291
00:08:50,529 --> 00:08:52,529
这是我们当前基于十二个月基准的状况

292
00:08:52,529 --> 00:08:53,089
好的

293
00:08:53,089 --> 00:08:54,928
Elf正处于非常激动人心的时期

294
00:08:54,928 --> 00:08:55,688
作为Elf

295
00:08:55,688 --> 00:08:56,349
股东

296
00:08:56,349 --> 00:08:58,408
股价短期内会波动

297
00:08:58,408 --> 00:09:00,389
但如果你有长期视角

298
00:09:00,389 --> 00:09:01,230
这可能是最

299
00:09:01,230 --> 00:09:04,330
这可能是最值得投资的公司

300
00:09:04,330 --> 00:09:04,889
在我看来

301
00:09:04,889 --> 00:09:07,899
在美妆和化妆品领域遥遥领先

302
00:09:07,899 --> 00:09:09,860
没有任何产品能接近Elf

303
00:09:09,860 --> 00:09:13,000
从长期增长潜力来看

304
00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:14,080
我们来详细讨论这个

305
00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:16,570
这是我为Elf设定的三年价格目标

306
00:09:16,570 --> 00:09:17,250
请注意当前股价

307
00:09:17,250 --> 00:09:18,460
目前股价为六十美元

308
00:09:18,460 --> 00:09:21,860
我的悲观情景是股价三年后仍为六十美元

309
00:09:21,860 --> 00:09:25,519
这将是公司增长完全停滞的场景

310
00:09:25,519 --> 00:09:26,940
嗯，是的

311
00:09:26,940 --> 00:09:28,639
或许还能保留一点利润率

312
00:09:28,639 --> 00:09:29,720
剩下一点盈利能力

313
00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:31,500
但最终收入

314
00:09:31,500 --> 00:09:32,539
将不复存在

315
00:09:32,539 --> 00:09:34,259
我认为这种概率极低

316
00:09:34,259 --> 00:09:35,519
低于百分之十

317
00:09:35,519 --> 00:09:37,389
但这确实存在可能

318
00:09:37,389 --> 00:09:38,250
我的基准情景

319
00:09:38,250 --> 00:09:39,830
简单说就是我的预期

320
00:09:39,830 --> 00:09:41,590
我认为股价将达一百四十美元

321
00:09:41,590 --> 00:09:43,529
三年后大概在这一价位

322
00:09:43,529 --> 00:09:45,129
如果情况比我预期更好

323
00:09:45,129 --> 00:09:45,909
超出我的预期

324
00:09:45,909 --> 00:09:50,320
股价将在三年内突破两百美元，创历史新高

325
00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:52,620
Elf股票的历史最高价大约在

326
00:09:52,620 --> 00:09:53,620
我认为是两百

327
00:09:53,620 --> 00:09:55,259
四十二十二左右

328
00:09:55,259 --> 00:09:55,759
好的

329
00:09:55,759 --> 00:09:57,059
还有很长的路要走

330
00:09:57,059 --> 00:09:59,840
在讨论第三只股票前

331
00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:02,299
我要提醒您查看下方的两个置顶评论

332
00:10:02,299 --> 00:10:05,700
第一个置顶评论是加入我的私享股票群

333
00:10:05,700 --> 00:10:06,659
如需申请

334
00:10:06,659 --> 00:10:09,120
可获得所有付费课程的完整权限

335
00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:10,460
成为股票市场大师

336
00:10:10,460 --> 00:10:11,399
百万富翁投资手册

337
00:10:11,399 --> 00:10:11,980
股票期权

338
00:10:11,980 --> 00:10:12,399
精通课程

339
00:10:12,399 --> 00:10:12,720
股息投资

340
00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:13,240
投资策略精要

341
00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:14,039
财务报表分析

342
00:10:14,039 --> 00:10:14,480
精通课程

343
00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:15,700
估值方法精要

344
00:10:15,700 --> 00:10:17,039
加入我的私密Discord群

345
00:10:17,039 --> 00:10:19,259
获取独家每周视频访问权限

346
00:10:19,259 --> 00:10:20,940
这些视频仅限私享群成员

347
00:10:20,940 --> 00:10:22,440
过去一周我录制了两段视频

348
00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:23,600
专属视频内容

349
00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:24,539
获取我的操作策略

350
00:10:24,539 --> 00:10:26,460
获取我操作的千倍股票

351
00:10:26,460 --> 00:10:27,580
兄弟们

352
00:10:27,580 --> 00:10:28,299
只是加载完成

353
00:10:28,299 --> 00:10:30,139
另外我们会寄送您的专属会员卡

354
00:10:30,139 --> 00:10:31,179
当你加入我们时

355
00:10:31,179 --> 00:10:32,859
这是私密群组卡

356
00:10:32,859 --> 00:10:34,418
这是2026版

357
00:10:34,418 --> 00:10:36,519
那里确实有库存

358
00:10:36,519 --> 00:10:38,419
然后我们会寄送您的千倍卡

359
00:10:38,419 --> 00:10:39,620
这是2024版

360
00:10:39,620 --> 00:10:40,820
这里有点旧了

361
00:10:40,820 --> 00:10:42,259
如果你选择终身加入

362
00:10:42,259 --> 00:10:46,379
我们会寄送终身会员卡到家

363
00:10:46,379 --> 00:10:49,399
今天的第二个置顶评论将来自我的Instagram

364
00:10:49,399 --> 00:10:50,639
如果你想关注我的Instagram

365
00:10:50,639 --> 00:10:51,779
如果你使用Instagram

366
00:10:51,779 --> 00:10:53,340
当然可以关注我

367
00:10:53,340 --> 00:10:56,889
这将是今天的第二个置顶评论

368
00:10:56,889 --> 00:10:58,850
我之前提到过他的60天挑战

369
00:10:58,850 --> 00:10:59,990
试图练出腹肌

370
00:10:59,990 --> 00:11:01,710
我每天做20分钟腹肌训练

371
00:11:01,710 --> 00:11:02,570
然后

372
00:11:02,570 --> 00:11:03,210
咱们看看结果

373
00:11:03,210 --> 00:11:04,690
所以我让大家提建议

374
00:11:04,690 --> 00:11:07,909
大家都在给我发腹肌训练的建议

375
00:11:07,909 --> 00:11:08,250
好的

376
00:11:08,250 --> 00:11:08,509
好的

377
00:11:08,509 --> 00:11:08,769
各位

378
00:11:08,769 --> 00:11:15,700
这十只股票中的第三只是SOI科技SOFI

379
00:11:15,700 --> 00:11:16,980
这里有16只股票

380
00:11:16,980 --> 00:11:18,899
市值约200亿美元

381
00:11:18,899 --> 00:11:21,529
看看SOFI的营收

382
00:11:21,970 --> 00:11:23,029
你喜欢吗

383
00:11:23,029 --> 00:11:23,889
你喜欢吗

384
00:11:23,889 --> 00:11:25,029
我可是非常喜欢呢

385
00:11:25,029 --> 00:11:25,889
让我告诉你

386
00:11:25,889 --> 00:11:28,000
未来十年SOFI的发展方向

387
00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:33,759
SOI正朝着金融巨头迈进

388
00:11:33,759 --> 00:11:36,198
看他们获取的客户数量

389
00:11:36,198 --> 00:11:38,339
如何向客户销售产品

390
00:11:38,339 --> 00:11:40,599
各种产品层出不穷

391
00:11:40,599 --> 00:11:45,149
吸引他们进门并吸引下一代用户

392
00:11:45,149 --> 00:11:49,710
从而在十年内跻身前十五大金融机构

393
00:11:49,710 --> 00:11:50,190
左右

394
00:11:50,190 --> 00:11:52,830
安东尼·诺托只需继续出色管理业务

395
00:11:52,830 --> 00:11:54,740
他正处于事业巅峰期

396
00:11:54,740 --> 00:11:57,720
如果未来十年管理得当

397
00:11:57,720 --> 00:11:59,139
他们可能进入前十

398
00:11:59,139 --> 00:12:02,639
成为全球前十五大金融机构

399
00:12:02,639 --> 00:12:04,279
他必须度过难关

400
00:12:05,279 --> 00:12:07,659
这就是经营银行的一半挑战

401
00:12:07,659 --> 00:12:08,639
他们本身就是银行的一部分

402
00:12:08,639 --> 00:12:09,609
兼具金融科技属性

403
00:12:09,609 --> 00:12:12,528
一半的挑战在于确保永远不陷入过度杠杆

404
00:12:12,528 --> 00:12:14,318
同时避免在经济低迷时陷入困境

405
00:12:14,318 --> 00:12:14,818
你知道的

406
00:12:14,818 --> 00:12:16,839
在经济严重恶化的情况下

407
00:12:16,839 --> 00:12:17,839
可能会遭遇信贷冲击

408
00:12:17,839 --> 00:12:18,778
或者类似的情况

409
00:12:18,778 --> 00:12:20,438
只要他能做到这一点

410
00:12:20,438 --> 00:12:21,990
所以我觉得

411
00:12:21,990 --> 00:12:22,909
天啊

412
00:12:22,909 --> 00:12:23,110
比如

413
00:12:23,110 --> 00:12:26,570
他们将在未来十年跻身全球前十五大金融机构

414
00:12:26,570 --> 00:12:27,399
本质上没错

415
00:12:27,399 --> 00:12:29,419
他们只需不断积累数据

416
00:12:29,419 --> 00:12:30,179
同时要记住

417
00:12:30,179 --> 00:12:30,919
由于他们吸引了大量年轻群体

418
00:12:30,919 --> 00:12:32,759
如此多的年轻一代

419
00:12:32,759 --> 00:12:37,299
年轻一代在未来十年净资产将大幅增长

420
00:12:37,299 --> 00:12:37,860
二十年时间

421
00:12:37,860 --> 00:12:39,080
你知道这会对

422
00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:40,399
沙发商业模式

423
00:12:40,399 --> 00:12:41,340
天啊

424
00:12:41,340 --> 00:12:42,940
盈利能力将变得巨大

425
00:12:42,940 --> 00:12:45,779
关键是要吸引年轻客户

426
00:12:45,779 --> 00:12:47,899
让他们习惯使用储蓄账户

427
00:12:47,899 --> 00:12:49,409
使用支票账户

428
00:12:52,330 --> 00:12:52,909
所有这些

429
00:12:52,909 --> 00:12:53,409
你知道的

430
00:12:53,409 --> 00:12:54,600
这就是银行业务

431
00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:55,779
但安东尼·诺托

432
00:12:55,779 --> 00:12:57,500
力求保持业务轻资产化

433
00:12:57,500 --> 00:12:59,840
所以他更倾向于收取更多费用

434
00:12:59,840 --> 00:13:00,609
嗯

435
00:13:00,609 --> 00:13:03,208
而非单纯承担贷款风险

436
00:13:03,208 --> 00:13:03,769
没错

437
00:13:03,769 --> 00:13:06,730
我给沙发的三年目标价是16美元

438
00:13:06,730 --> 00:13:08,309
我的悲观情景是15美元

439
00:13:13,429 --> 00:13:15,240
因此我大幅下调预期

440
00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:16,299
如果发生这种情况

441
00:13:16,299 --> 00:13:18,240
悲观情景基本成立

442
00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:19,320
当前股价水平

443
00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:20,639
基准情景

444
00:13:20,639 --> 00:13:21,779
这是我预计的股价走势

445
00:13:21,779 --> 00:13:22,700
我预计三年后股价将达三

446
00:13:22,700 --> 00:13:24,769
五倍于现在

447
00:13:24,769 --> 00:13:27,250
而我的乐观情景则是表现超出预期

448
00:13:27,250 --> 00:13:29,210
这将是一只五十美元以上的股票

449
00:13:29,210 --> 00:13:30,169
三年后

450
00:13:30,169 --> 00:13:31,970
因此在相关领域有巨大上涨空间

451
00:13:31,970 --> 00:13:36,059
所以我在这十只百元以下股票中选了四只

452
00:13:36,059 --> 00:13:36,659
这是一只买入信号

453
00:13:36,659 --> 00:13:40,269
现在是芝士蛋糕

454
00:13:40,269 --> 00:13:41,309
工厂蛋糕

455
00:13:41,309 --> 00:13:42,070
好的不

456
00:13:42,070 --> 00:13:42,769
这是一只

457
00:13:42,769 --> 00:13:44,279
如果你不了解这只股票

458
00:13:44,279 --> 00:13:45,279
你只会听到这个

459
00:13:45,279 --> 00:13:45,600
你会说

460
00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:45,799
好的

461
00:13:45,799 --> 00:13:46,399
芝士蛋糕工厂

462
00:13:46,399 --> 00:13:46,679
是的

463
00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:48,159
这是一家受欢迎的餐厅

464
00:13:48,159 --> 00:13:49,080
曾经很轰动

465
00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:49,600
没错

466
00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:51,818
快速听听关于芝士蛋糕的事

467
00:13:51,818 --> 00:13:57,019
他们拥有多个非常成功的子品牌

468
00:13:57,019 --> 00:13:59,960
这些品牌由一位叫萨姆·福克斯的先生创立

469
00:13:59,960 --> 00:14:00,679
萨姆·福克斯

470
00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:02,379
一位非常成功的餐饮业者

471
00:14:02,379 --> 00:14:05,908
他多年前将这些品牌卖给了芝士蛋糕公司

472
00:14:05,908 --> 00:14:08,620
因为他喜欢创造餐厅概念

473
00:14:08,620 --> 00:14:11,340
但他不喜欢繁琐的公司事务

474
00:14:11,340 --> 00:14:11,500
哦

475
00:14:11,500 --> 00:14:12,679
我们要扩展这个

476
00:14:12,679 --> 00:14:13,139
你知道的

477
00:14:13,139 --> 00:14:14,840
在美国开一百家分店

478
00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:15,379
对的

479
00:14:15,379 --> 00:14:16,299
因为他

480
00:14:16,299 --> 00:14:19,240
他的专长是打造成功的餐厅概念

481
00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:20,078
没错

482
00:14:20,078 --> 00:14:21,239
芝士蛋糕

483
00:14:21,239 --> 00:14:24,739
非常擅长扩展成功的餐厅概念

484
00:14:24,739 --> 00:14:26,359
他们已长期证明这一点

485
00:14:26,359 --> 00:14:30,239
现在他们在全美扩展餐厅概念

486
00:14:30,239 --> 00:14:30,599
现在

487
00:14:30,599 --> 00:14:31,658
名为北意大利

488
00:14:31,658 --> 00:14:35,720
非常成功的意大利连锁餐厅

489
00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:38,580
让人感觉像当地夫妻经营的意大利餐厅

490
00:14:38,580 --> 00:14:43,389
没错，我认为它将在未来十年取代橄榄园

491
00:14:43,389 --> 00:14:46,480
橄榄园当时确实不错

492
00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:48,440
但食物已过时了

493
00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:51,179
没错，当你尝试更好的意大利菜

494
00:14:51,179 --> 00:14:51,759
你会明白

495
00:14:51,759 --> 00:14:52,320
天啊

496
00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:55,879
橄榄园确实一般

497
00:14:55,879 --> 00:14:58,379
而橄榄园十年后依然会存在

498
00:14:58,379 --> 00:14:59,059
我想

499
00:14:59,059 --> 00:15:03,279
但尤其是新一代的口味已经进化了

500
00:15:03,279 --> 00:15:07,559
当你去正餐厅时对食物质量的期待也在进化

501
00:15:07,559 --> 00:15:09,559
北阿拉斯加显然在充分利用这一点

502
00:15:09,559 --> 00:15:12,139
没错，他们另一个非常成功的概念

503
00:15:12,139 --> 00:15:14,059
目前正在全美扩展

504
00:15:14,059 --> 00:15:16,659
他们还有十多年的发展空间

505
00:15:16,659 --> 00:15:19,240
这是一个名为花童的概念

506
00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:20,519
花童是一个概念

507
00:15:20,519 --> 00:15:22,019
非常健康的食物

508
00:15:22,019 --> 00:15:23,139
价格更亲民

509
00:15:23,139 --> 00:15:23,679
定价策略

510
00:15:23,679 --> 00:15:26,299
你上去点餐就像去Chipotle

511
00:15:26,299 --> 00:15:27,039
但略有不同

512
00:15:27,039 --> 00:15:27,860
你不会说

513
00:15:27,860 --> 00:15:28,460
我要米饭

514
00:15:28,460 --> 00:15:29,220
我要豆子

515
00:15:29,220 --> 00:15:29,659
嗯

516
00:15:29,659 --> 00:15:31,139
菜单上有许多不同选项

517
00:15:31,139 --> 00:15:32,059
可以自由定制

518
00:15:32,059 --> 00:15:33,059
如果你想的话告诉他们

519
00:15:33,059 --> 00:15:33,559
你要这个

520
00:15:33,559 --> 00:15:34,980
他们为你制作得很快

521
00:15:34,980 --> 00:15:37,429
通常5到10分钟就准备好

522
00:15:37,429 --> 00:15:38,370
端到你面前

523
00:15:38,370 --> 00:15:39,330
品质很好

524
00:15:39,330 --> 00:15:40,450
健康食品

525
00:15:40,450 --> 00:15:41,549
高蛋白

526
00:15:41,549 --> 00:15:42,659
通常低脂肪

527
00:15:42,659 --> 00:15:42,980
不是

528
00:15:42,980 --> 00:15:44,820
菜单上没有太多不健康的东西

529
00:15:44,820 --> 00:15:46,220
这个概念非常成功

530
00:15:46,220 --> 00:15:48,539
然后他们还有像厨艺辍学者这样的概念

531
00:15:48,539 --> 00:15:50,100
以及其他看起来很有潜力的概念

532
00:15:50,100 --> 00:15:50,980
非常有前景

533
00:15:50,980 --> 00:15:52,600
现在已有多个门店

534
00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:53,539
关键在于

535
00:15:53,539 --> 00:15:55,379
他们是否要将业务扩展到全美

536
00:15:55,379 --> 00:15:57,559
还是保持区域性概念

537
00:15:57,559 --> 00:15:58,059
好的

538
00:15:58,059 --> 00:16:02,639
这就是蛋糕成为长期增长故事的原因

539
00:16:02,639 --> 00:16:03,120
好的

540
00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:05,039
这里有一个非常重要的点需要理解

541
00:16:05,039 --> 00:16:06,399
蛋糕四P在十三

542
00:16:06,399 --> 00:16:07,120
喂，兄弟

543
00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:08,460
这里的增长似乎太快了

544
00:16:08,460 --> 00:16:10,860
关于蛋糕正在向下调整价格

545
00:16:10,860 --> 00:16:11,679
这太荒谬了

546
00:16:11,679 --> 00:16:12,289
对吧

547
00:16:12,289 --> 00:16:13,549
蛋糕三年价格目标

548
00:16:13,549 --> 00:16:14,210
现在继续购买

549
00:16:14,210 --> 00:16:14,809
这场演讲价值五十美元

550
00:16:14,809 --> 00:16:15,230
六美元

551
00:16:15,230 --> 00:16:16,870
我的蛋糕熊市案例是五十美元

552
00:16:19,850 --> 00:16:21,549
我不知道他们搞砸了

553
00:16:21,549 --> 00:16:23,690
公司可能有健康问题

554
00:16:23,690 --> 00:16:27,049
他们在阿拉巴马州的扩张中搞砸了花童项目

555
00:16:27,049 --> 00:16:28,639
这概率相当不现实

556
00:16:28,639 --> 00:16:29,360
但这是有可能的

557
00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:31,340
三年内熊市案例五十美元

558
00:16:31,340 --> 00:16:32,179
基准案例

559
00:16:32,179 --> 00:16:33,200
八十美元

560
00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:34,679
牛市案例是一百美元

561
00:16:34,679 --> 00:16:37,099
现在你需要理解

562
00:16:37,099 --> 00:16:39,578
股票每季度还能派发股息

563
00:16:39,578 --> 00:16:40,739
所以我喜欢持有蛋糕

564
00:16:40,739 --> 00:16:41,870
我认为它具有

565
00:16:41,870 --> 00:16:43,909
长期巨大潜力

566
00:16:43,909 --> 00:16:45,809
这让我晚上睡得很安心

567
00:16:45,809 --> 00:16:46,570
持有这支股票

568
00:16:46,570 --> 00:16:47,669
我完全不担心

569
00:16:47,669 --> 00:16:49,080
股价会跌到二十美元

570
00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:50,840
同时我能收到股息

571
00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:54,839
然后用这笔钱买入更多蛋糕股票或其他股票

572
00:16:54,839 --> 00:16:57,139
在市场回调或崩盘时

573
00:16:57,139 --> 00:16:57,479
没错

574
00:16:57,479 --> 00:16:58,958
这个数字非常漂亮

575
00:16:58,958 --> 00:17:04,730
这十只股票中五只已就绪，其中一只可能之前没见过

576
00:17:05,049 --> 00:17:05,910
罗宾汉

577
00:17:05,910 --> 00:17:07,089
这只股票的代码

578
00:17:07,089 --> 00:17:11,618
HOOd，股价回到六十多

579
00:17:11,618 --> 00:17:12,058
请注意

580
00:17:12,058 --> 00:17:13,038
股票曾达一百二十美元

581
00:17:13,038 --> 00:17:15,720
时间也不算太长

582
00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:18,400
现在我要提醒大家关于HOO的注意事项

583
00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:19,460
在继续之前

584
00:17:19,460 --> 00:17:19,799
好的

585
00:17:19,799 --> 00:17:24,319
因为我接下来会给出价格目标等信息，但关于HOO需注意

586
00:17:24,319 --> 00:17:25,500
好的

587
00:17:26,019 --> 00:17:29,059
需理解未来六个月股价可能大幅下跌

588
00:17:29,059 --> 00:17:29,819
当前股价六十美元八角

589
00:17:29,819 --> 00:17:32,460
如果比特币大幅

590
00:17:32,460 --> 00:17:33,079
如果但

591
00:17:33,079 --> 00:17:34,299
假设说

592
00:17:34,299 --> 00:17:36,269
比特币会大幅下跌

593
00:17:36,269 --> 00:17:37,329
假设跌至

594
00:17:37,329 --> 00:17:38,529
假设再次腰斩

595
00:17:38,529 --> 00:17:40,980
未来六个月可能跌至三万美元区间

596
00:17:40,980 --> 00:17:43,500
未来六个月股市可能受冲击

597
00:17:43,500 --> 00:17:46,579
霍德的股价可能在35到45美元区间

598
00:17:46,579 --> 00:17:47,279
好的

599
00:17:47,279 --> 00:17:48,440
这可能不会发生

600
00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:52,519
我想让大家了解股票短期内的潜在下行风险

601
00:17:52,519 --> 00:17:53,750
比如接下来的六个月

602
00:17:53,750 --> 00:17:54,990
如果真的发生的话

603
00:17:54,990 --> 00:17:55,579
好的

604
00:17:55,579 --> 00:17:57,220
霍德显然有一个非常长期的

605
00:17:57,220 --> 00:17:58,380
你知道的，长期前景令人兴奋

606
00:17:58,380 --> 00:17:59,660
我本人不使用罗宾汉平台

607
00:17:59,660 --> 00:18:00,960
我使用富达投资

608
00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:05,079
但很多股市人士喜欢用罗宾汉对吧

609
00:18:05,079 --> 00:18:06,119
他们会用它进行期权交易

610
00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:08,099
他们会用它作为投资账户

611
00:18:08,099 --> 00:18:10,460
他们用它进行交易账户，比如罗宾汉非常受欢迎

612
00:18:10,460 --> 00:18:11,759
我们都清楚这一点对吧

613
00:18:11,759 --> 00:18:14,119
此外关于罗宾汉

614
00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:15,880
他们也进入了预测市场

615
00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:20,109
他们还通过手续费赚取大量收入，充当中间人角色

616
00:18:20,109 --> 00:18:22,250
没错，而且更轻资产化

617
00:18:22,250 --> 00:18:23,250
此外关于霍德

618
00:18:23,250 --> 00:18:25,430
他们甚至推出信用卡和其他产品

619
00:18:25,430 --> 00:18:27,859
这家公司CEO一直在不断扩张

620
00:18:27,859 --> 00:18:29,180
这位CEO非常出色

621
00:18:29,180 --> 00:18:29,660
他已经

622
00:18:29,660 --> 00:18:30,359
干得非常出色

623
00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:32,720
将公司发展成市值超500亿美元的市场

624
00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:33,630
目前来看

625
00:18:33,630 --> 00:18:33,950
霍德

626
00:18:33,950 --> 00:18:36,089
这是我给股票的三年价格目标

627
00:18:36,089 --> 00:18:36,430
你知道的

628
00:18:36,430 --> 00:18:37,849
我之前提到过短期情况

629
00:18:37,849 --> 00:18:38,930
短期可能会很糟糕

630
00:18:38,930 --> 00:18:40,740
如果比特币大幅下跌

631
00:18:40,740 --> 00:18:44,210
如果股市在未来六个月大幅下跌

632
00:18:44,210 --> 00:18:45,950
但三年价格目标

633
00:18:45,950 --> 00:18:47,509
我的悲观预期是60美元

634
00:18:47,509 --> 00:18:48,089
仅此而已

635
00:18:48,089 --> 00:18:51,269
这只有在加密货币

636
00:18:51,269 --> 00:18:54,230
且股市未来几年表现不佳的情况下才会发生

637
00:18:54,230 --> 00:18:58,700
我的基准预期是120美元

638
00:18:58,700 --> 00:18:59,799
霍德的乐观预期

639
00:18:59,799 --> 00:19:03,240
未来三年可达150美元以上

640
00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:04,660
霍德很有吸引力

641
00:19:04,660 --> 00:19:09,470
但需注意接下来六个月若形势恶化

642
00:19:09,470 --> 00:19:12,650
无论油价如何变化都要理解

643
00:19:12,650 --> 00:19:15,250
霍德可能面临更多短期下行风险

644
00:19:15,250 --> 00:19:15,809
好的

645
00:19:15,809 --> 00:19:21,269
这十只股票中的第六只是备受厌恶的股票

646
00:19:21,269 --> 00:19:22,009
耐克

647
00:19:22,009 --> 00:19:23,309
这次就到这里了

648
00:19:23,309 --> 00:19:25,829
这是一个市值四十二亿的股票

649
00:19:25,829 --> 00:19:27,589
目前市值刚过五十亿

650
00:19:27,589 --> 00:19:28,230
这简直难以想象

651
00:19:28,230 --> 00:19:31,309
罗宾汉和耐克的市值基本相当

652
00:19:31,309 --> 00:19:31,470
现在

653
00:19:31,470 --> 00:19:32,679
这太疯狂了对吧

654
00:19:32,679 --> 00:19:33,878
听着琼斯

655
00:19:33,878 --> 00:19:35,878
这只股票的市盈率是二八

656
00:19:35,878 --> 00:19:36,679
人们看到这个数据

657
00:19:36,679 --> 00:19:38,779
就说耐克不便宜

658
00:19:38,779 --> 00:19:39,140
像

659
00:19:39,140 --> 00:19:40,339
为什么大家都觉得

660
00:19:40,339 --> 00:19:42,039
为什么你对耐克这么兴奋杰里米

661
00:19:42,039 --> 00:19:42,859
就像我之前说的二

662
00:19:42,859 --> 00:19:43,299
八

663
00:19:43,299 --> 00:19:43,819
呃

664
00:19:43,819 --> 00:19:44,380
尝试十二个月

665
00:19:44,380 --> 00:19:45,730
市盈率大概对吧

666
00:19:47,849 --> 00:19:53,730
耐克过去一年的每股收益糟糕至极

667
00:19:53,730 --> 00:19:55,049
未来十年都不会有改善

668
00:19:55,289 --> 00:19:56,349
差距很大

669
00:19:56,349 --> 00:19:58,289
耐克的情况已经最差了

670
00:19:58,289 --> 00:19:59,130
个人观点

671
00:19:59,130 --> 00:20:00,179
可能有误

672
00:20:00,179 --> 00:20:03,380
但我坚信这一点原因在于

673
00:20:03,380 --> 00:20:05,140
他们不得不处理大量库存积压

674
00:20:05,140 --> 00:20:07,660
美国各地库存规模合适

675
00:20:07,660 --> 00:20:09,200
他们在开拓国际市场

676
00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:09,859
中国

677
00:20:09,859 --> 00:20:12,740
这其中涉及很多因素需要计提费用

678
00:20:12,740 --> 00:20:13,700
必须降价处理产品

679
00:20:13,700 --> 00:20:14,839
这简直一团糟

680
00:20:14,839 --> 00:20:16,220
同时剥离其他业务

681
00:20:16,220 --> 00:20:17,220
他们有过一次性

682
00:20:17,220 --> 00:20:18,519
终止费之类的支出

683
00:20:18,519 --> 00:20:22,710
这导致盈利状况混乱

684
00:20:23,269 --> 00:20:26,329
未来一年和三年会大幅改善

685
00:20:26,329 --> 00:20:29,099
明白盈利情况

686
00:20:29,099 --> 00:20:32,839
过去一年的每股收益已是耐克最差

687
00:20:32,839 --> 00:20:33,319
耐克

688
00:20:33,319 --> 00:20:37,180
之后只会越来越好

689
00:20:37,180 --> 00:20:40,788
所以二七市盈率

690
00:20:40,788 --> 00:20:41,429
看看这个数据

691
00:20:41,429 --> 00:20:41,709
你会说

692
00:20:41,709 --> 00:20:41,909
嗯

693
00:20:41,909 --> 00:20:42,909
福特市盈率二七

694
00:20:42,909 --> 00:20:45,549
我认为分析师认为更低

695
00:20:45,549 --> 00:20:47,869
我认为分析师对耐克极度看空

696
00:20:47,869 --> 00:20:50,940
耐克还发布了非常疲软的年度预测

697
00:20:50,940 --> 00:20:52,599
我认为从我的观点来看是有意为之的

698
00:20:52,599 --> 00:20:54,079
因为为什么要发布一个

699
00:20:54,079 --> 00:20:56,750
你知道现在是一个极度看涨的预测

700
00:20:56,750 --> 00:20:58,250
在所有不确定性持续存在的背景下

701
00:20:58,250 --> 00:20:59,609
你不知道油价会怎么变化

702
00:20:59,609 --> 00:21:00,789
你知道吧

703
00:21:00,789 --> 00:21:02,069
你不知道经济会怎么发展

704
00:21:02,069 --> 00:21:03,220
比如走低

705
00:21:03,220 --> 00:21:05,039
预期会形成并全年超越这些

706
00:21:05,039 --> 00:21:08,250
我认为目前耐克的真实前向市盈率大概在

707
00:21:08,250 --> 00:21:11,559
我个人估计在十九到二十二之间

708
00:21:11,559 --> 00:21:12,319
嗯

709
00:21:12,319 --> 00:21:12,980
这明显太低了

710
00:21:12,980 --> 00:21:16,839
因为今年将是耐克十年中最糟糕的盈利年份

711
00:21:16,839 --> 00:21:18,859
接下来十年你都会看到耐克的表现

712
00:21:18,859 --> 00:21:21,339
所以这个的两年四倍市盈率

713
00:21:21,339 --> 00:21:22,259
十七太低了

714
00:21:22,259 --> 00:21:23,700
他们现在可能只有十倍左右

715
00:21:23,700 --> 00:21:24,279
依我之见

716
00:21:24,279 --> 00:21:27,089
就两年四倍市盈率而言

717
00:21:27,089 --> 00:21:27,529
呃

718
00:21:27,529 --> 00:21:28,950
我对耐克的目标价看法如何

719
00:21:28,950 --> 00:21:31,109
现在股票价格是四十二美元

720
00:21:31,109 --> 00:21:33,318
我对耐克的看跌情景

721
00:21:33,318 --> 00:21:35,638
看跌目标是六十美元

722
00:21:35,638 --> 00:21:37,500
可以这样考虑

723
00:21:37,500 --> 00:21:41,640
即使在我的看跌情景下情况比我预期更糟

724
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:45,750
股票在未来三年仍可能跑赢标普五百指数

725
00:21:45,750 --> 00:21:46,990
四十二到六十

726
00:21:46,990 --> 00:21:54,230
我对耐克未来三年的基准预测是一百二十

727
00:21:54,230 --> 00:21:56,109
有人会正确有人会错误

728
00:21:56,109 --> 00:21:57,289
关于这一点

729
00:21:57,289 --> 00:21:58,309
也许是我

730
00:21:58,309 --> 00:21:59,509
也许华尔街

731
00:21:59,509 --> 00:22:02,210
我不知道时间会告诉我们答案

732
00:22:02,210 --> 00:22:07,150
但我和华尔街之间存在巨大分歧

733
00:22:07,150 --> 00:22:10,430
关于未来三年股票走势

734
00:22:10,430 --> 00:22:14,289
我的看涨情景是超过一百八十

735
00:22:14,289 --> 00:22:15,710
这不是第一次

736
00:22:15,710 --> 00:22:17,529
我与华尔街意见不同

737
00:22:17,529 --> 00:22:19,190
这种情况发生过无数次

738
00:22:19,190 --> 00:22:21,309
有时候他们是对的

739
00:22:21,309 --> 00:22:21,470
兄弟

740
00:22:21,470 --> 00:22:23,250
他们这次赢了我这种情况也会发生

741
00:22:23,250 --> 00:22:25,789
有时候他们不对

742
00:22:25,789 --> 00:22:28,730
当他们2022年将Palantir股价卖到59.8美元时

743
00:22:28,730 --> 00:22:29,690
他们错了

744
00:22:29,690 --> 00:22:30,589
我正确了

745
00:22:30,589 --> 00:22:31,509
当他们2022年卖出Meta

746
00:22:31,509 --> 00:22:33,049
低至88美元时

747
00:22:33,049 --> 00:22:33,888
他们错了

748
00:22:33,888 --> 00:22:34,689
我才是对的

749
00:22:34,689 --> 00:22:37,048
当他们在2022年以低价抛售Shopify时

750
00:22:37,048 --> 00:22:37,669
他们错了

751
00:22:37,669 --> 00:22:38,449
我才是对的

752
00:22:38,449 --> 00:22:39,048
特斯拉

753
00:22:39,048 --> 00:22:40,009
我们可以列很长的清单

754
00:22:40,009 --> 00:22:40,619
他们是对的

755
00:22:40,619 --> 00:22:43,180
所以有时候他们会抓住我和其他倒霉蛋

756
00:22:43,180 --> 00:22:43,740
他们抓到我了

757
00:22:43,740 --> 00:22:45,949
他们你知道的，那次他们是对的

758
00:22:45,949 --> 00:22:47,249
我觉得他们会错

759
00:22:47,249 --> 00:22:50,749
我觉得这又是一个我提前看到的股票例子

760
00:22:50,749 --> 00:22:51,689
他们拐了个弯

761
00:22:51,689 --> 00:22:52,388
转眼间

762
00:22:52,388 --> 00:22:53,469
几年后

763
00:22:53,469 --> 00:22:54,529
然后会说该死啊

764
00:22:54,529 --> 00:22:55,630
这简直是轻松买入

765
00:22:55,630 --> 00:22:57,089
像这样备受憎恨的股票

766
00:22:57,089 --> 00:22:57,730
但天啊

767
00:22:57,730 --> 00:22:58,890
我本应该买入一些股份

768
00:22:58,890 --> 00:22:59,089
没错

769
00:22:59,089 --> 00:22:59,740
咱们拭目以待

770
00:22:59,740 --> 00:23:00,400
咱们拭目以待

771
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:01,160
时间会证明一切

772
00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:02,019
这就是美妙之处

773
00:23:02,019 --> 00:23:03,180
它总是对的

774
00:23:03,180 --> 00:23:06,470
这十只股票中的第七只其实

775
00:23:06,470 --> 00:23:07,309
这是一次参观

776
00:23:09,150 --> 00:23:09,589
好的

777
00:23:09,589 --> 00:23:10,109
你知道吗

778
00:23:10,109 --> 00:23:13,789
Fubo TV确实诚实

779
00:23:13,789 --> 00:23:14,210
好的

780
00:23:14,210 --> 00:23:15,779
认真听

781
00:23:15,779 --> 00:23:18,339
目前股价是两美元七十五美分

782
00:23:18,339 --> 00:23:22,029
我对Honest未来三年的空头观点是五美元

783
00:23:22,029 --> 00:23:23,009
五美元

784
00:23:23,009 --> 00:23:26,450
我对Honest未来三年的基准价是十美元

785
00:23:26,450 --> 00:23:31,529
而我对Honest未来三年的激进目标是十五美元以上

786
00:23:31,529 --> 00:23:31,829
好的

787
00:23:31,829 --> 00:23:33,390
这只股票被严重低估

788
00:23:33,390 --> 00:23:37,359
整个公司目前市值约三亿美元

789
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:40,660
整个公司保持无债

790
00:23:40,660 --> 00:23:42,809
现金储备充足

791
00:23:42,809 --> 00:23:44,809
正在实现盈利

792
00:23:44,809 --> 00:23:45,730
我的意思是

793
00:23:45,730 --> 00:23:48,890
并销售基于需求的产品如

794
00:23:48,890 --> 00:23:50,309
这太疯狂了

795
00:23:50,309 --> 00:23:51,190
这太疯狂了

796
00:23:51,190 --> 00:23:52,990
目前这只股票的折价幅度

797
00:23:52,990 --> 00:23:55,589
未来多年有巨大上涨空间且潜力真实

798
00:23:55,589 --> 00:23:56,150
没错

799
00:23:56,150 --> 00:23:57,869
Fubo TV Fubo

800
00:23:57,869 --> 00:24:01,069
整个公司目前估值仅十亿美元

801
00:24:01,069 --> 00:24:04,730
他们每年调整后EBITDA约三亿美元

802
00:24:04,730 --> 00:24:05,170
你知道的

803
00:24:05,170 --> 00:24:08,660
从现在起两三年内

804
00:24:08,660 --> 00:24:09,680
股价是十二美元

805
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:12,900
我的悲观情景是未来三年股价十二美元

806
00:24:12,900 --> 00:24:19,999
我的基准预测是二十五美元，最乐观则超百美元

807
00:24:19,999 --> 00:24:21,259
三年后

808
00:24:21,259 --> 00:24:22,059
没错

809
00:24:22,059 --> 00:24:24,319
Fubo是极具

810
00:24:24,319 --> 00:24:26,220
最具上涨潜力的股票之一

811
00:24:26,220 --> 00:24:28,380
但市场也伴随风险

812
00:24:28,380 --> 00:24:29,690
完全正确

813
00:24:29,690 --> 00:24:32,950
但我认为它是未来最具潜力的股票之一

814
00:24:32,950 --> 00:24:33,809
你知道的三年内

815
00:24:33,809 --> 00:24:35,329
甚至可能五年内

816
00:24:35,329 --> 00:24:38,279
我们拭目以待，看看会发生什么

817
00:24:38,279 --> 00:24:39,940
但是否可能实现

818
00:24:39,940 --> 00:24:41,200
当然有可能

819
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:46,138
Fubo未来三年或成七亿至十亿美元公司

820
00:24:46,138 --> 00:24:48,900
必须展示大量用户增长

821
00:24:48,900 --> 00:24:51,039
持续提升利润率

822
00:24:51,039 --> 00:24:51,779
实现盈利

823
00:24:51,779 --> 00:24:53,359
他们已与迪士尼建立合作关系

824
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:53,740
没错

825
00:24:53,740 --> 00:24:56,888
Hulu直播电视业务持续扩展

826
00:24:56,888 --> 00:24:57,788
还有

827
00:24:57,788 --> 00:25:00,128
我认为这项业务前景非常光明

828
00:25:00,128 --> 00:25:01,469
两家非常小的公司

829
00:25:01,469 --> 00:25:02,409
极其微型的公司

830
00:25:02,409 --> 00:25:05,950
因此我将它们合并分析，商业模式截然不同

831
00:25:05,950 --> 00:25:07,990
一家销售纸尿裤、湿巾和洗护用品

832
00:25:07,990 --> 00:25:11,869
以及大量婴儿护理和化妆品产品

833
00:25:11,869 --> 00:25:14,269
另一家则是流媒体公司

834
00:25:14,269 --> 00:25:16,470
在体育领域非常成功

835
00:25:16,470 --> 00:25:17,289
凭借Fubo品牌

836
00:25:17,289 --> 00:25:19,230
而Hulu直播电视则

837
00:25:19,230 --> 00:25:20,589
整体表现优异

838
00:25:20,589 --> 00:25:21,679
好的

839
00:25:21,679 --> 00:25:27,329
这十只股票中的第八名是雅诗兰黛

840
00:25:27,329 --> 00:25:28,690
雅诗兰黛EL

841
00:25:28,690 --> 00:25:33,200
这是一家高端化妆品和美容公司

842
00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:37,579
旗下品牌大多定位高端市场

843
00:25:37,579 --> 00:25:39,599
四P公司

844
00:25:39,599 --> 00:25:41,180
这个是二五

845
00:25:41,180 --> 00:25:42,119
好的

846
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:44,359
但我想在这里谈谈更宏大的事情

847
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:45,099
他们并不知情

848
00:25:45,099 --> 00:25:50,069
许多高端彩妆和美妆行业的成功品牌

849
00:25:50,069 --> 00:25:52,730
去你的本地诺德斯特龙百货

850
00:25:52,730 --> 00:25:53,009
好的

851
00:25:53,009 --> 00:25:56,130
在彩妆和美妆部门逛逛，别显得太奇怪

852
00:25:56,130 --> 00:25:57,549
好的，嗯

853
00:25:57,549 --> 00:25:59,690
四处走走然后看看这些品牌并想

854
00:25:59,690 --> 00:26:01,250
输入名称并查询谁拥有它

855
00:26:01,250 --> 00:26:03,190
你会发现很多都属于雅诗兰黛集团

856
00:26:03,190 --> 00:26:03,509
好的

857
00:26:03,509 --> 00:26:04,180
他们确实拥有

858
00:26:04,180 --> 00:26:05,819
我不说他们垄断了这个领域

859
00:26:05,819 --> 00:26:09,720
但他们确实在高端化妆品领域占据稳固地位

860
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:10,230
好的

861
00:26:10,230 --> 00:26:12,349
但此刻我想谈谈更宏大的议题

862
00:26:12,349 --> 00:26:13,410
因为这很重要

863
00:26:13,410 --> 00:26:16,869
因为你会看到这份名单中有许多公司

864
00:26:16,869 --> 00:26:17,329
今天

865
00:26:17,329 --> 00:26:19,318
这些是消费类公司

866
00:26:19,318 --> 00:26:20,479
它们是B2C模式

867
00:26:20,479 --> 00:26:20,759
没错

868
00:26:20,759 --> 00:26:23,190
现在直接面向消费者销售

869
00:26:23,549 --> 00:26:26,789
为什么我对未来三到五年消费领域如此看好

870
00:26:26,789 --> 00:26:27,589
对

871
00:26:27,589 --> 00:26:31,230
我之所以看好未来三到五年消费领域

872
00:26:31,230 --> 00:26:32,279
是因为

873
00:26:32,599 --> 00:26:33,859
这与

874
00:26:33,859 --> 00:26:34,440
大量

875
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:35,039
这与

876
00:26:35,039 --> 00:26:35,819
你最大的

877
00:26:35,819 --> 00:26:36,319
什么

878
00:26:36,319 --> 00:26:37,460
你的钱主要流向哪里

879
00:26:37,460 --> 00:26:40,779
作为美国公民

880
00:26:40,779 --> 00:26:41,500
对

881
00:26:41,500 --> 00:26:41,960
嗯

882
00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:44,140
要么用于房租或房贷

883
00:26:44,140 --> 00:26:44,740
现在

884
00:26:44,740 --> 00:26:46,450
房租正在下降

885
00:26:46,450 --> 00:26:49,450
房租经历了多年的疯狂上涨

886
00:26:49,450 --> 00:26:50,569
疫情后复苏期

887
00:26:50,569 --> 00:26:51,289
基本上没错

888
00:26:51,289 --> 00:26:52,509
始于2021年

889
00:26:52,509 --> 00:26:54,470
房租持续飙升

890
00:26:54,470 --> 00:26:56,670
他们声称房租过去一年上涨了2%

891
00:26:56,670 --> 00:26:57,880
我不信这个数据

892
00:26:57,880 --> 00:26:58,759
原因在于

893
00:26:58,759 --> 00:27:01,960
许多公寓和类似机构开始推出优惠

894
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:03,559
提供一个月免租

895
00:27:03,559 --> 00:27:04,359
两个月免租

896
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:05,469
三个月免租

897
00:27:05,469 --> 00:27:07,509
不过十二个月合约

898
00:27:07,509 --> 00:27:10,409
你知道需要签一年或十五个月的合同之类的

899
00:27:10,409 --> 00:27:13,390
所以我其实认为全美租金

900
00:27:13,390 --> 00:27:16,069
我现在相信它们实际上在下降

901
00:27:16,069 --> 00:27:19,210
或者至少目前持平

902
00:27:19,210 --> 00:27:21,670
好的，这是全美整体情况

903
00:27:21,670 --> 00:27:23,990
但数据显示租金上涨了2.9%

904
00:27:23,990 --> 00:27:24,980
对吧

905
00:27:24,980 --> 00:27:27,599
但故事的寓意是这离7.5%还差很远

906
00:27:27,599 --> 00:27:29,720
2%、5%、8%

907
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:31,699
6%、7%对吧

908
00:27:31,699 --> 00:27:33,759
我们现在回到正常区间

909
00:27:33,759 --> 00:27:36,499
这是消费公司表现优异的时期

910
00:27:36,499 --> 00:27:37,329
没错

911
00:27:37,329 --> 00:27:39,670
从2014到2019年

912
00:27:39,670 --> 00:27:41,759
其实我们可以称为2010年

913
00:27:41,759 --> 00:27:42,960
从金融危机后复苏

914
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:44,559
2010到2019年

915
00:27:44,559 --> 00:27:46,720
消费公司表现惊人

916
00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:50,859
原因之一是租金未失控

917
00:27:50,859 --> 00:27:52,789
房价也未失控

918
00:27:52,789 --> 00:27:56,990
人们最大开支被严格控制

919
00:27:56,990 --> 00:28:00,989
没错，消费公司处于黄金时代

920
00:28:00,989 --> 00:28:03,388
突然大家最大开支

921
00:28:03,388 --> 00:28:05,308
通常是房租或房贷

922
00:28:05,308 --> 00:28:06,788
变得疯狂

923
00:28:06,788 --> 00:28:13,589
对了，如果你想知道为什么许多消费股大幅下跌

924
00:28:13,589 --> 00:28:15,150
过去三到五年

925
00:28:15,150 --> 00:28:16,960
和租金变化如出一辙

926
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:20,039
看看现在房价如何

927
00:28:20,039 --> 00:28:21,299
当我们观察房价

928
00:28:21,299 --> 00:28:24,049
这是美国房屋中位数售价

929
00:28:24,049 --> 00:28:26,329
我们已持续走低一段时间

930
00:28:26,329 --> 00:28:28,369
短期内可能继续下行

931
00:28:28,369 --> 00:28:29,549
至少短期内

932
00:28:29,549 --> 00:28:32,299
因此出现了巨大繁荣

933
00:28:32,299 --> 00:28:35,660
显然从32万美元中位数

934
00:28:35,660 --> 00:28:37,779
一路涨到44万美元

935
00:28:37,779 --> 00:28:38,539
在峰值时

936
00:28:38,539 --> 00:28:42,140
现在接近40万美元左右

937
00:28:42,140 --> 00:28:43,799
显然多年后

938
00:28:43,799 --> 00:28:45,299
工资也上涨了

939
00:28:45,299 --> 00:28:48,480
我对未来三到五年消费板块非常看好

940
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:50,079
这也是我买入的原因

941
00:28:50,079 --> 00:28:54,199
大量被重创的消费公司

942
00:28:54,199 --> 00:28:55,278
许多这些股票

943
00:28:55,278 --> 00:29:00,240
过去一年许多消费公司触及八年

944
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:00,799
十年

945
00:29:00,799 --> 00:29:02,700
十二年和十五年新低

946
00:29:02,700 --> 00:29:04,480
你正在以最低价获得这些股票

947
00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:05,579
过去你本可以买到它们

948
00:29:05,579 --> 00:29:06,920
比如十年前或二十年前

949
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:08,240
没错

950
00:29:09,450 --> 00:29:13,150
或者租金在未来几年会大幅突然上涨

951
00:29:13,150 --> 00:29:14,400
我不这么认为

952
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:14,880
或者

953
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:16,859
房价在未来几年会疯狂上涨

954
00:29:16,859 --> 00:29:19,109
我不这么看

955
00:29:19,430 --> 00:29:20,269
十年后

956
00:29:20,269 --> 00:29:24,269
谁知道可能会出现全新的住房周期让房价再次飙升

957
00:29:24,269 --> 00:29:25,529
租金也会再次暴涨

958
00:29:25,529 --> 00:29:29,589
但未来一两年不会有这种情况

959
00:29:29,589 --> 00:29:31,679
房价将趋于平稳下行

960
00:29:31,679 --> 00:29:33,179
租金也将平稳下降

961
00:29:33,179 --> 00:29:35,259
或者仅有小幅上涨

962
00:29:35,259 --> 00:29:36,259
这可以承受

963
00:29:36,259 --> 00:29:40,759
这意味着人们有更多钱消费雅诗兰黛

964
00:29:40,759 --> 00:29:41,618
消费耐克

965
00:29:41,618 --> 00:29:44,039
以及所有这些其他消费品牌

966
00:29:44,039 --> 00:29:44,559
你知道的

967
00:29:44,559 --> 00:29:45,000
看看

968
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:47,680
你可以几乎找到任何消费品牌

969
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:48,680
消费公司

970
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:53,069
它们的股票几乎全部从历史高点下跌了50%到80%

971
00:29:53,069 --> 00:29:54,470
你知道这很糟糕

972
00:29:54,470 --> 00:29:56,009
你可以理解为什么

973
00:29:56,009 --> 00:29:57,369
当你的最大开支变得疯狂

974
00:29:57,369 --> 00:29:57,969
没错

975
00:29:57,969 --> 00:29:58,449
不

976
00:29:58,449 --> 00:30:00,148
就股价目标而言

977
00:30:00,148 --> 00:30:01,648
我的EL三年价格目标

978
00:30:01,648 --> 00:30:02,088
呃

979
00:30:02,088 --> 00:30:03,788
我的股票目前是68美元

980
00:30:03,788 --> 00:30:06,128
我的悲观情景是100美元

981
00:30:06,619 --> 00:30:08,980
当你的悲观情景显著高于当前价格

982
00:30:08,980 --> 00:30:09,880
这是好消息

983
00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:10,839
相当看涨

984
00:30:10,839 --> 00:30:11,240
对吧

985
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:12,960
我对O的基本情景

986
00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:14,019
155美元

987
00:30:14,019 --> 00:30:14,888
三年后

988
00:30:14,888 --> 00:30:19,989
我的EL看涨情景是三年后200美元以上

989
00:30:19,989 --> 00:30:20,528
从现在起

990
00:30:20,528 --> 00:30:21,489
我喜欢雅虎股票

991
00:30:21,489 --> 00:30:22,740
非常看好

992
00:30:22,740 --> 00:30:26,700
这十只股票中的第九只是新加入的

993
00:30:27,089 --> 00:30:28,650
宝洁公司

994
00:30:28,650 --> 00:30:31,500
B B W I

995
00:30:31,500 --> 00:30:33,259
这是它的股票代码

996
00:30:33,259 --> 00:30:33,660
它

997
00:30:33,660 --> 00:30:36,640
整个公司市值超过三亿美元

998
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:37,329
现在

999
00:30:37,329 --> 00:30:38,930
这是十八倍市盈率股票

1000
00:30:38,930 --> 00:30:40,869
福特股价目前低于七美元

1001
00:30:40,869 --> 00:30:42,170
这是一家非常简单的业务

1002
00:30:42,170 --> 00:30:43,569
他们卖蜡烛

1003
00:30:43,569 --> 00:30:44,470
润肤露

1004
00:30:44,470 --> 00:30:45,890
像肥皂这类产品对吧

1005
00:30:45,890 --> 00:30:47,529
假期期间非常受欢迎

1006
00:30:47,529 --> 00:30:49,529
这一直是我最喜欢的商店之一

1007
00:30:49,529 --> 00:30:49,809
好的

1008
00:30:49,809 --> 00:30:51,000
我联系到了我的

1009
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:52,059
我的女性一面

1010
00:30:52,059 --> 00:30:53,099
不是女性一面

1011
00:30:53,099 --> 00:30:53,559
他们说

1012
00:30:53,559 --> 00:30:54,240
你的女性特质

1013
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:54,839
女性一面

1014
00:30:54,839 --> 00:30:56,279
我并不接触那方面

1015
00:30:56,279 --> 00:30:56,619
好的

1016
00:30:56,619 --> 00:30:57,559
你的女性特质

1017
00:30:57,559 --> 00:30:57,900
好的

1018
00:30:57,900 --> 00:30:58,559
我爱去

1019
00:30:58,559 --> 00:30:59,240
沐浴与身体护理

1020
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:00,009
别评判我

1021
00:31:00,009 --> 00:31:00,829
我常去那里

1022
00:31:00,829 --> 00:31:01,630
万圣节

1023
00:31:01,630 --> 00:31:02,269
我常去那里

1024
00:31:02,269 --> 00:31:02,910
圣诞节啊

1025
00:31:02,910 --> 00:31:03,529
我超爱

1026
00:31:03,529 --> 00:31:04,089
我超爱

1027
00:31:04,089 --> 00:31:05,380
我喜欢买这些小肥皂

1028
00:31:05,380 --> 00:31:06,759
你知道它们闻起来像

1029
00:31:06,759 --> 00:31:09,480
闻起来像棒棒糖，然后去那里买那些

1030
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:11,209
嗯那些南瓜香皂

1031
00:31:11,209 --> 00:31:11,628
你知道的

1032
00:31:11,628 --> 00:31:13,348
秋天时让我感觉很棒

1033
00:31:13,348 --> 00:31:13,588
好的

1034
00:31:13,588 --> 00:31:14,028
评判我吧

1035
00:31:14,028 --> 00:31:15,669
想怎么评判就去沐浴与身体护理

1036
00:31:15,669 --> 00:31:16,769
这个秋天去那里买些

1037
00:31:16,769 --> 00:31:17,250
好的

1038
00:31:17,250 --> 00:31:18,890
但总之故事的核心是

1039
00:31:18,890 --> 00:31:23,309
这只股票严重被低估，当前股价低于七美元

1040
00:31:23,309 --> 00:31:24,609
它派发高额股息

1041
00:31:24,609 --> 00:31:25,309
顺便说一句

1042
00:31:25,309 --> 00:31:28,509
未来三年看空目标价为25美元

1043
00:31:28,509 --> 00:31:29,809
目前股价十八美元

1044
00:31:29,809 --> 00:31:33,950
基准预测32美元，乐观预测40美元以上

1045
00:31:33,950 --> 00:31:35,809
别忘了这只股票的高额股息

1046
00:31:35,809 --> 00:31:39,859
股息收益率为4.3%

1047
00:31:39,859 --> 00:31:41,960
而且股息支付比率也很低

1048
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,680
他们未来完全可以提高股息

1049
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:45,259
如果他们愿意的话

1050
00:31:45,259 --> 00:31:47,339
所以我喜欢Bath & Body Works

1051
00:31:47,339 --> 00:31:47,940
我只能说

1052
00:31:47,940 --> 00:31:50,039
我认为这是一只极具吸引力的股票

1053
00:31:50,039 --> 00:31:51,319
不要感到意外

1054
00:31:51,319 --> 00:31:53,240
如果我不久后开始买入这只股票

1055
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:53,779
好的

1056
00:31:53,779 --> 00:31:56,019
这十只股票中的第十只

1057
00:31:56,019 --> 00:31:58,159
它们中的最后一只

1058
00:31:58,159 --> 00:31:59,019
没错

1059
00:31:59,019 --> 00:31:59,618
啊

1060
00:31:59,618 --> 00:32:01,278
现在这只又是被讨厌的股票之一

1061
00:32:01,278 --> 00:32:01,578
哦

1062
00:32:01,578 --> 00:32:04,999
它被严重看空，但就是ServiceNow

1063
00:32:04,999 --> 00:32:09,519
这只股票的代码是NOW，简直是完美的投资标的

1064
00:32:09,519 --> 00:32:14,220
听我说，这只股票今日技术性收盘价为105.5美元

1065
00:32:14,220 --> 00:32:15,480
当我准备视频时

1066
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:16,940
当我考虑制作这个视频时

1067
00:32:16,940 --> 00:32:19,099
早盘时曾跌至99美元

1068
00:32:19,099 --> 00:32:19,339
好的

1069
00:32:19,339 --> 00:32:20,450
嘿

1070
00:32:20,450 --> 00:32:21,150
抱歉

1071
00:32:21,150 --> 00:32:21,650
抱歉

1072
00:32:23,410 --> 00:32:23,750
好的

1073
00:32:23,750 --> 00:32:24,869
ServiceNow

1074
00:32:24,869 --> 00:32:25,990
你知道的

1075
00:32:25,990 --> 00:32:27,470
对这只股票做些深入研究

1076
00:32:27,470 --> 00:32:32,869
这是可能被AI取代的SaaS相关公司之一

1077
00:32:32,869 --> 00:32:34,190
这是最不令人担忧的

1078
00:32:34,190 --> 00:32:35,690
你应该关注的

1079
00:32:35,690 --> 00:32:37,170
这家公司真的能有效连接

1080
00:32:37,170 --> 00:32:37,710
呃

1081
00:32:37,710 --> 00:32:40,210
在企业内部沟通方面

1082
00:32:40,210 --> 00:32:43,009
让所有人生活更便捷

1083
00:32:43,009 --> 00:32:43,809
在大型企业中

1084
00:32:43,809 --> 00:32:44,589
总之

1085
00:32:44,589 --> 00:32:45,119
好的

1086
00:32:45,119 --> 00:32:46,099
福特P

1087
00:32:46,099 --> 00:32:46,819
二三

1088
00:32:46,819 --> 00:32:47,960
大概在这个区间

1089
00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:50,200
公司营收和每股收益持续增长

1090
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:51,849
增速约20%

1091
00:32:51,849 --> 00:32:53,210
对于SaaS公司而言

1092
00:32:53,210 --> 00:32:53,869
这简直

1093
00:32:53,869 --> 00:32:54,529
这值得买入

1094
00:32:54,529 --> 00:32:55,369
我该说些什么呢

1095
00:32:55,369 --> 00:32:58,369
以99美元或接近这个价格买入

1096
00:32:58,369 --> 00:32:58,839
没错

1097
00:32:58,839 --> 00:33:01,190
关于这个标的的价格目标

1098
00:33:01,190 --> 00:33:02,490
熊市情景目标价为零美元

1099
00:33:02,490 --> 00:33:02,950
基准情景

1100
00:33:02,950 --> 00:33:03,890
牛市情景目标价零美元

1101
00:33:03,890 --> 00:33:04,410
零美元

1102
00:33:04,410 --> 00:33:05,329
因为华尔街

1103
00:33:05,329 --> 00:33:06,710
认为所有这些SaaS公司

1104
00:33:06,710 --> 00:33:07,579
都无关紧要

1105
00:33:07,579 --> 00:33:09,079
感谢大家一如既往地加入

1106
00:33:09,079 --> 00:33:10,539
再次感谢你们的到来

1107
00:33:10,539 --> 00:33:11,700
下方主要评论区

1108
00:33:11,700 --> 00:33:12,900
如果你打算申请鼓掌

1109
00:33:12,900 --> 00:33:13,599
私人股票组

1110
00:33:13,599 --> 00:33:14,339
私人财富组

1111
00:33:14,339 --> 00:33:15,339
可访问千倍股票

1112
00:33:15,339 --> 00:33:15,779
互联网公司

1113
00:33:15,779 --> 00:33:16,420
私人Discord

1114
00:33:16,420 --> 00:33:16,920
聊天室

1115
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:18,599
独家每周视频

1116
00:33:18,599 --> 00:33:19,799
所有我的付费课程

1117
00:33:19,799 --> 00:33:20,559
所有优质内容

1118
00:33:20,559 --> 00:33:23,019
看看我在实盘组合中的操作

1119
00:33:23,019 --> 00:33:24,099
此外

1120
00:33:24,099 --> 00:33:25,819
如果你想关注我的Instagram

1121
00:33:25,819 --> 00:33:26,849
给我一些

1122
00:33:26,849 --> 00:33:28,630
嗯，你的看法

1123
00:33:28,630 --> 00:33:29,589
发我私信

1124
00:33:29,589 --> 00:33:30,789
回复我最新动态

1125
00:33:30,789 --> 00:33:32,569
这是下方第二个评论区

1126
00:33:32,569 --> 00:33:34,160
衷心祝福，祝你度过美好一天

共 7 条，按点赞数排序。

采集完成，该视频无弹幕