【老李玩钱】2支被忽略的科技巨头！分析与买入建议

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大家好

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我是老李

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今天啊又是holy蟹的一天

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美股一片红

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这两天呢天气有点热了

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我呢换件衣服啊

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咱们这绿色战袍一披轻装上阵

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今天这期视频呢想跟大家来讲两只被忽略的啊

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科技巨头

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为什么说是被忽略的科技巨头呢

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因为咱们在平常说到这个科技巨头来说啊

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经常提的就是magnificent seven

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就是七大科技巨头

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那么这个科技巨头的以什么为标准呢

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一般是以它的市值就是万亿市值以上的

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就叫做啊科技巨头

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那么之前的定义呢一直是七大科技巨头

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但是现在呢啊这两年开始有两只股票啊

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也是已经到达到了这个啊万亿市值的这条线啊

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啊所以说啊这两只股票呢是呃

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可以说是被忽略的两只科技巨头

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那说到这呢

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咱朋友们应该已经知道啊

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我说的是哪两只股票啊

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这两只股票呢都属于是芯片股啊

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一只是呃AVGO博通

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另外一只呢是TSM台积电

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这两只股票呢最近也是被咱们朋友们啊

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问的非常多啊

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呃很多朋友希望老李出来啊能分析一下

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然后给出一些啊买入或者是加仓的建议

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那咱们说正事之前呢

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依照国际惯例

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还是先来跟大家量账户

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今天美股又泄了一片血红

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我的账户呢下跌了4000美金左右

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账户总资产啊回到了26万8000多啊

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又跌下了27万

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本期视频由附图木木赞助播出

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我一直在用的这款券商呢就是木木功能齐全

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非常的好用

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木木的新春超值福利倒计时

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最后六天还没有领取这波福利的朋友

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在看完本期视频之后

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到视频下方点击我的专属邀请链接

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注册开户

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把这波免费的福利先给嫖到手

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当前美股当中万亿市值以上的公司啊

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其实是有九家

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除了咱们平常经常说的呃

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Magnificent seven

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就是七大科技巨头之外呢

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还有这个博通跟台积电啊

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博通呢它的市值现在是1.62万亿

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然后台积电呢是1.58万亿

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其实这两家公司啊论从市值上来看啊

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都是比这个啊特斯拉的市值还要更更高一些的

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咱们呢先来说博通

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从股价走势上来看呢

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博通这支股票在呃去年的12月份

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达到了一个400多的高点之后呢

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就开始啊有一定的回调

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最近这段时间呢

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是一直在这个呃这样一个箱体之内啊

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横盘震荡

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如果把这个时间线呢拉的更长

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其实在从去年的9月份啊

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到现在应该有啊半年的时间了

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博通其实就是啊一直这个股价

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一直就是在这样子横盘震荡

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博通这家公司啊

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在整个半导体芯片领域

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充当着非常重要的一个角色

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因为现在咱们说这个AI芯片啊

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啊主要分成呃两个大的分支

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那第一个分支呢就是啊咱们经常说的啊

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通用的GPU的AI芯片

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这里面的主要玩家呢有这个英伟达

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AMD啊等等等等

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那么还有一个主要的分支呢

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就是啊呃在去年也是炒的很火

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最近这段时间大家应该也都听说过

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叫做AICC定制化AI芯片

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那这个分支里面的龙头老大呢

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其实就是博通通用型GPU芯片

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在AI这个领域啊

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大家可以把他当做是训练之王啊

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那么这里面的市场领导者呢啊

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就是咱们的达哥啊

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达哥是占据了约85%

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到92%的这个数据中心GPU的市场份额

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那这里呃

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这个通用型GPUAI芯片里面还有一个主要的玩家

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就是AMD啊

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但是AMD的这个市场份额跟达哥相比呢

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那AAMD还是属于是一个小弟

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然后这个定制化就是ASIC

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定制化AI芯片呢啊

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大家可以把他啊当做是效率专家啊

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他的角色呢他们是手术刀式的工具啊

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专为某一特定任务而设计

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超大规模云服务商

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比如谷歌

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meta亚马逊

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微软

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他们使用AIC相比

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Gpu

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可实现高出30%到50%的单位啊

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功耗性能

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这在电力供应啊

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逐渐成为数据中心主要瓶颈的情况下

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是至关重要的

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那么ESIC定制化芯片呢

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像刚才咱们所说的这里面呢

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他的龙头老大就是博通啊

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控制着高端定制AI

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AICC市场的60%到80%啊

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其次呢这个老二呢呃这个领域的老二是迈威尔

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就是marvel的那家芯片公司啊

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啊约占市场的20%

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从AI芯片整个的市场情况来看呢

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目前这个通用GPU的芯片呢

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还是占据市场的主导啊

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那么根据2025年这个呃统计来看呢

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啊

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通用GPU芯片的市场份额是大概占75%

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然后啊

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这个ESIC定制化芯片呢

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是占到了20.9%

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但是呢2026年的这个预测的啊

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市场份额来看啊

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通用GPU芯片呢

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这个市场在2026年将会占到啊

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69%

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而定制化ASIC芯片呢

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啊这个市场份额将会占到27.8%

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大家也可以从这也可以看出来一个趋势啊

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就是AICC定制化芯片的这个发展的步伐

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是要比通用GPU芯片的发展

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是要这个步伐要更快的

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根据截至2026年3月

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的行业预测和架构变革

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ISK定制化AI芯片预计将在未来几年

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以显著快于通用GPU的速度发展和增长

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尽管GPU仍将保持更高的总体市场价值

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分析师的共识是

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GPU市场正在走向成熟

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而定制化AICC啊

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芯片的市场呢正进入一个爆发性的阶段

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分析师预测

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在2026年

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通用GPU呃

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AI芯片的这个年化增长率呢

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将会在16%左右

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然后一直到2033年

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就是长期复合的年化增长率呢

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这个通用的GPU芯片呢

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这个额复合增长率将会是啊14%左右

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而呃ASIC定制化芯片呢

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2026年

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他们预测的年化增长率为44%啊

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一直到2033年

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这个长期的啊复合年化增长率呢

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是高达27%

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说到这儿

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咱朋友们肯定会好奇了

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为什么这个AICC定制化芯片的发展会比啊

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通用GPU的这个发展速度啊会快这么多

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这里面呢主要有三个原因

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第一个原因呢就是从训练到推理的一个转变

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那么第二个原因呢

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就是超大规模云服务商的自给自足啊

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云计算巨头

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比如说谷歌

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meta亚马逊

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微软以及如今的这个OpenAI

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正竞相降低他们的英伟达税啊

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通过与博通或迈威尔合作打造定制化芯片

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他们呢就可以实现

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第一是节呃成本的节省

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自研定制化芯片的成本可比以75%

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毛利率出售的通用GPU要低

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25%到30%

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其次呢就是能源效率这方面

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定制化AICC在每瓦性能上可提升30%

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到50%

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第三个原因呢就是垂直整合

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博通和迈威尔正在机价及设计方面加速推进

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例如博通啊近期宣布呃

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推出业内首款2NM定制计算soc

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这表明AIC克供应商如今已能够与英伟达并肩

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甚至在前沿呃制造工艺上处于领先地位

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从增长情况上来看

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博通确实是一家正在高速增长的科技巨头啊

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从2024年起啊

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呃这家公司啊

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每一个季度它的营收额的同比增长率啊

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基本上都是在啊啊20%以上

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木木这里面自带的这个功能非常的方便

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可以快速查看一家公司的基本面

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或者是他的啊财务信息

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我们只需要在特定的一只股票下面点击啊

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财务这个按钮

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然后下面有一个利润表啊

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点进来就可以看到啊

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这些非常详细的财务信息

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除此之外呢还可以查看他的资产负债表

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现金流量表或者一些其他的关键指标啊

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还有这个财务财报的分析

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旁边这个位置有一个预测

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我们点进来之后呢

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就可以看到啊

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各大投行或者是机构对博通这家公司的

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一些这个啊评级

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目前来看

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大部分投行和机构对博通这家公司啊

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还是持一个买入的这个评级的

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然后他们对博通一年之后的啊

219
00:09:23,820 --> 00:09:28,200
目标价预测呢啊平均值是在467

220
00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:30,899
分析师对博通在2026年

221
00:09:30,899 --> 00:09:33,559
营收额增长率的预期呢

222
00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:37,120
是高达63.87%

223
00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:39,179
然后2027年呢

224
00:09:39,179 --> 00:09:44,659
呃预期的营收增长率是额46.92%

225
00:09:44,659 --> 00:09:47,299
这个增长率啊简直是太狂了

226
00:09:47,299 --> 00:09:49,519
这已经不像是科技巨头了啊

227
00:09:49,519 --> 00:09:51,840
很多那种小盘的啊

228
00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:53,519
高成长的那些股票啊

229
00:09:53,519 --> 00:09:57,399
可能他这个营收的同比增长率啊都达不到啊

230
00:09:57,399 --> 00:09:58,200
这么高

231
00:09:58,200 --> 00:09:59,960
从估值情况上来看呢

232
00:09:59,960 --> 00:10:02,120
博通他当前的forward pe e

233
00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:05,000
就是前瞻市盈率是32.05

234
00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:07,690
咱们呢还是参照30这条线

235
00:10:07,690 --> 00:10:09,750
对于这种科技巨头来说呢

236
00:10:09,750 --> 00:10:13,970
我觉得啊如果他的啊前瞻市盈率是低于30的

237
00:10:13,970 --> 00:10:18,539
那么它的估值呢还算是OK如果是高于30的话

238
00:10:18,539 --> 00:10:22,629
那么我觉得他的这个估值啊就有那么一点偏高

239
00:10:22,629 --> 00:10:24,029
所以博通这支股票

240
00:10:24,029 --> 00:10:26,909
目前我给到的建议开仓买入的价格呢

241
00:10:26,909 --> 00:10:31,159
是在这条线308这个支撑位的附近啊

242
00:10:31,159 --> 00:10:33,860
是可以考虑去啊开仓买入的

243
00:10:33,860 --> 00:10:36,220
然后下面进一步加仓的位置呢

244
00:10:36,220 --> 00:10:39,620
我给到了啊这个295的这条线

245
00:10:39,620 --> 00:10:43,850
这条线呢正好是在啊这个250均线啊

246
00:10:43,850 --> 00:10:47,299
也就是啊年限的这个附近

247
00:10:47,299 --> 00:10:49,860
接下来呢咱们来说TSM台积电

248
00:10:49,860 --> 00:10:53,309
台积电的股价在近期啊也是有所回调

249
00:10:53,309 --> 00:10:55,610
从之前的高点390啊

250
00:10:55,610 --> 00:10:58,220
回到了现在的330多块

251
00:10:58,220 --> 00:10:59,860
咱有些朋友就问他说

252
00:10:59,860 --> 00:11:03,879
老李这台积电这只股票美女回头了

253
00:11:03,879 --> 00:11:06,039
我们该不该上前去拥抱呢

254
00:11:06,039 --> 00:11:08,220
该不该把它给拿下啊

255
00:11:08,220 --> 00:11:09,440
开仓买入啊

256
00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:10,740
布局这支股票呢

257
00:11:10,740 --> 00:11:12,399
或者说啊什么价格

258
00:11:12,399 --> 00:11:15,559
你觉得啊啊可以去啊开仓买入

259
00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:17,320
布局台积电这支股票

260
00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:18,240
那么接下来呢

261
00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:21,620
咱们就啊对台积电进行具体的分析

262
00:11:21,620 --> 00:11:25,700
台积电啊也是半导体芯片领域的一名啊

263
00:11:25,700 --> 00:11:27,019
主力玩家

264
00:11:27,019 --> 00:11:31,240
那他是晶圆代工这一块的龙头老大

265
00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:32,000
说到这儿

266
00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:33,080
咱有些朋友会说啊

267
00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:35,460
说老李这半导体芯片领域

268
00:11:35,460 --> 00:11:37,159
怎么会这么多龙头老大呀

269
00:11:37,159 --> 00:11:39,320
啊你说这个英伟达也是龙头老大

270
00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:41,000
刚才你说博通也是龙头老大

271
00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:43,889
现在又说这台积电也是龙头老大

272
00:11:43,889 --> 00:11:45,529
我们到底该信哪一个呢

273
00:11:45,529 --> 00:11:47,730
怎么整出了这么多个龙头老大

274
00:11:48,289 --> 00:11:52,350
这只是说在整个半导体芯片呃这个板块啊

275
00:11:52,350 --> 00:11:54,409
各个的细分领域啊

276
00:11:54,409 --> 00:11:56,639
他们呢是各自的龙头老大

277
00:11:56,639 --> 00:11:57,480
咱刚才说了

278
00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:00,279
英伟达呢它是啊通用GPU啊

279
00:12:00,279 --> 00:12:02,379
这个AI芯片这一块的龙头老大

280
00:12:02,379 --> 00:12:06,220
博通呢他是ASIC定制化芯片这一块的龙头老大

281
00:12:06,220 --> 00:12:09,440
而台积电呢它是晶圆代工啊

282
00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:13,990
就是代工厂这这个细分领域的龙头老大

283
00:12:13,990 --> 00:12:14,970
我们知道啊

284
00:12:14,970 --> 00:12:17,730
咱很多所说的这种芯片公司

285
00:12:17,730 --> 00:12:18,649
像是英伟达

286
00:12:18,649 --> 00:12:20,110
英AAMD啊

287
00:12:20,110 --> 00:12:20,850
博通啊

288
00:12:20,850 --> 00:12:23,509
他们基本上都是只设计芯片啊

289
00:12:23,509 --> 00:12:25,029
只负责设计芯片

290
00:12:25,029 --> 00:12:26,970
它不制造不生产

291
00:12:26,970 --> 00:12:28,970
那么它设计出来的芯片呢

292
00:12:28,970 --> 00:12:31,730
都是交给台积电去做代工

293
00:12:31,730 --> 00:12:34,649
找台积电做代工的芯片设计公司呢

294
00:12:34,649 --> 00:12:36,009
主要有两大块

295
00:12:36,009 --> 00:12:39,460
第一块呢就是高性能计算与AI这一块

296
00:12:39,460 --> 00:12:41,360
那么这一块儿里面的啊

297
00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:42,980
首先就是英伟达

298
00:12:42,980 --> 00:12:45,379
英伟达是台积电下一代A16

299
00:12:45,379 --> 00:12:47,460
也就是1.6NM和2NM

300
00:12:47,460 --> 00:12:49,259
制成节点的主要客户

301
00:12:49,259 --> 00:12:52,220
台积电为英伟达代工black well rubin

302
00:12:52,220 --> 00:12:54,759
以及即将推出的FEMINGP架构

303
00:12:54,759 --> 00:12:58,039
并提供关键的covers先进封装技术

304
00:12:58,039 --> 00:12:59,519
其次就是博通啊

305
00:12:59,519 --> 00:13:02,240
博通现已成为台积电的第三大客户

306
00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:05,509
贡献约11%到15%的营收

307
00:13:05,509 --> 00:13:08,610
博通使用台积电为其高端网络芯片

308
00:13:08,610 --> 00:13:11,289
以及为谷歌的啊TPUV7

309
00:13:11,289 --> 00:13:15,379
meta的MMTIA和OpenAI呃

310
00:13:15,379 --> 00:13:18,339
设计的定制AIAICC进行代工

311
00:13:18,339 --> 00:13:19,958
然后就是AMD

312
00:13:19,958 --> 00:13:20,999
AMD是台积电

313
00:13:20,999 --> 00:13:23,759
3NM和2NM制成节点的主要用户

314
00:13:23,759 --> 00:13:26,600
用于其EPIC avenus服务器

315
00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:30,710
CPU和instinct m i400系列AI加速器

316
00:13:30,710 --> 00:13:31,629
除此之外呢

317
00:13:31,629 --> 00:13:32,529
还有英特尔

318
00:13:32,529 --> 00:13:35,309
尽管英特尔拥有自己的晶圆代工厂

319
00:13:35,309 --> 00:13:39,059
但是英特尔仍大幅增加对台积电的外包

320
00:13:39,059 --> 00:13:40,100
到2026年

321
00:13:40,100 --> 00:13:44,340
英特尔将在其旗舰级NOVA lake CPU上

322
00:13:44,340 --> 00:13:47,490
采用台积电的2NM啊制成

323
00:13:47,490 --> 00:13:51,330
并在lunar lake和error lake系列中啊

324
00:13:51,330 --> 00:13:53,419
依赖台积电提供新力

325
00:13:53,419 --> 00:13:56,100
然后是智能手机与消费电子这一块儿

326
00:13:56,100 --> 00:13:57,240
在这一块当中呢

327
00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:02,549
苹果高通这些公司呢都是台积电的主要客户

328
00:14:02,549 --> 00:14:03,590
咱们之前说过

329
00:14:03,590 --> 00:14:06,070
如果把AI人工智能这整个领域啊

330
00:14:06,070 --> 00:14:08,210
比作是一个巨大的金池的话

331
00:14:08,210 --> 00:14:10,269
那么很多这些科技公司呢

332
00:14:10,269 --> 00:14:13,690
都想从当中呢去挖金子对吧

333
00:14:13,690 --> 00:14:16,750
那么这些呃芯片的设计商呢

334
00:14:16,750 --> 00:14:18,450
其实他们就是啊

335
00:14:18,450 --> 00:14:22,568
设计这个挖金子的铲子的这些公司

336
00:14:22,568 --> 00:14:27,700
而台积电呢是真正的去呃生产制造

337
00:14:27,700 --> 00:14:31,299
挖金子的产资的这呃这么一家公司

338
00:14:31,299 --> 00:14:34,799
所以台积电啊在AI整个生态系统当中

339
00:14:34,799 --> 00:14:36,980
它的地位是非常显著的

340
00:14:36,980 --> 00:14:42,480
这家公司的这个啊护城河呢也是非常的扎实

341
00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:43,629
非常的坚固

342
00:14:43,629 --> 00:14:44,649
不得不承认

343
00:14:44,649 --> 00:14:48,269
台积电确实是一家不折不扣的好公司啊

344
00:14:48,269 --> 00:14:51,970
这家公司呢也基本上是挑不出什么毛病

345
00:14:51,970 --> 00:14:53,529
唯一有一点啊

346
00:14:53,529 --> 00:14:56,850
就是啊这个台积电呢它不是美国的公司

347
00:14:56,850 --> 00:14:58,399
它是一家台湾的公司啊

348
00:14:58,399 --> 00:15:00,519
他唯一就存在这么一点

349
00:15:00,519 --> 00:15:04,159
未来可能会有这种啊地缘政治方面的啊

350
00:15:04,159 --> 00:15:05,509
这种风险

351
00:15:05,509 --> 00:15:07,529
从预期的增长情况来看呢

352
00:15:07,529 --> 00:15:10,220
分析师对台积电在2026年

353
00:15:10,220 --> 00:15:12,399
营收增长率的预期呢

354
00:15:12,399 --> 00:15:15,399
是达到了30.73%

355
00:15:15,399 --> 00:15:17,960
然后在下一年就是2027年啊

356
00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:18,759
分析师预计

357
00:15:18,759 --> 00:15:20,919
台积电的这个营收同比增长率

358
00:15:20,919 --> 00:15:23,899
将会达到23.89%

359
00:15:23,899 --> 00:15:24,759
说实话啊

360
00:15:24,759 --> 00:15:26,419
这个预期的增长率

361
00:15:26,419 --> 00:15:29,200
对于台积电这样一家科技巨头来说

362
00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:31,490
算是相当不错了

363
00:15:31,490 --> 00:15:33,049
然后估值上来看呢

364
00:15:33,049 --> 00:15:36,570
台积电整体的估值情况也还算是OK

365
00:15:36,570 --> 00:15:40,039
他当前的trilling pe是34.07

366
00:15:40,039 --> 00:15:41,379
然后forward的PE

367
00:15:41,379 --> 00:15:44,870
也就是前瞻市盈率呢是25.84

368
00:15:44,870 --> 00:15:48,029
台积电的股价呢在近期是有所回调

369
00:15:48,029 --> 00:15:52,200
如果这支股票啊能在给我们啊多打一些折扣

370
00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:56,559
能够回到下方的这一条啊支撑位附近啊

371
00:15:56,559 --> 00:15:59,799
这个支撑位呢这个价格是在320啊

372
00:15:59,799 --> 00:16:03,379
啊我认为回到320以下的话

373
00:16:03,379 --> 00:16:04,200
呃

374
00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:05,740
咱们就可以考虑啊

375
00:16:05,740 --> 00:16:08,950
对台积电这支股票进行开仓买入

376
00:16:08,950 --> 00:16:12,269
然后下方呢这个跳空缺口的下边缘

377
00:16:12,269 --> 00:16:14,879
这个位置呢是在307啊

378
00:16:14,879 --> 00:16:18,239
307这个呃价格附近呢是我啊

379
00:16:18,239 --> 00:16:21,909
嗯建议进一步加仓的一个价格点位

380
00:16:21,909 --> 00:16:22,669
总而言之

381
00:16:22,669 --> 00:16:26,110
在307~320这个价格区间范围内呢

382
00:16:26,110 --> 00:16:29,309
我觉得就可以考虑去啊对啊

383
00:16:29,309 --> 00:16:32,110
台积电这支股票啊开仓买入

384
00:16:32,110 --> 00:16:34,839
然后进行长期的布局

385
00:16:34,839 --> 00:16:37,379
今天这期视频主要就是来跟大家讲

386
00:16:37,379 --> 00:16:42,230
这两只朋友们非常关心的隐藏科技巨头

387
00:16:42,230 --> 00:16:44,070
那么关于这两只股票

388
00:16:44,070 --> 00:16:45,450
大家有什么看法

389
00:16:45,450 --> 00:16:47,500
或者是啊建议

390
00:16:47,500 --> 00:16:51,129
都可以在我的评论区里面尽情的发表

391
00:16:51,129 --> 00:16:52,529
那视频都看到这了

392
00:16:52,529 --> 00:16:53,750
依照国际惯例

393
00:16:53,750 --> 00:16:57,289
还是求各位粉丝一键三连点赞

394
00:16:57,289 --> 00:16:58,590
评论加转发

395
00:16:58,590 --> 00:17:00,730
还没有订阅老李这个频道的朋友呢

396
00:17:00,730 --> 00:17:03,269
抓紧时间点上一首订阅

397
00:17:03,269 --> 00:17:04,950
最后再提醒一下大家

398
00:17:04,950 --> 00:17:08,410
木木券商的新春超值福利倒计时

399
00:17:08,410 --> 00:17:10,949
还有最后六天的时间

400
00:17:10,949 --> 00:17:13,989
美国用户现在通过老李的专属邀请链接

401
00:17:13,989 --> 00:17:14,689
开户入金

402
00:17:14,689 --> 00:17:18,930
最高可获得价值1000美金的免费英伟达股票

403
00:17:18,930 --> 00:17:19,750
除此之外

404
00:17:19,750 --> 00:17:20,809
入金任意金额

405
00:17:20,809 --> 00:17:24,170
即可获得价值100美金的亚马逊里卡

406
00:17:24,170 --> 00:17:24,950
闲置资金

407
00:17:24,950 --> 00:17:28,509
享受高达8.1%的现金年化利息

408
00:17:28,509 --> 00:17:32,190
此次新春超值活动截止到3月18号

409
00:17:32,190 --> 00:17:33,390
最后六天

410
00:17:33,390 --> 00:17:35,460
朋友们抓紧时间

411
00:17:35,460 --> 00:17:36,839
加拿大粉丝开户

412
00:17:36,839 --> 00:17:40,109
最高可获得4600加元的现金奖励

413
00:17:40,109 --> 00:17:43,970
老李粉丝额外加赠100加元的亚马逊里卡

414
00:17:43,970 --> 00:17:46,900
闲置资金享受6%的高利息

415
00:17:46,900 --> 00:17:48,700
其他各国家和地区开户

416
00:17:48,700 --> 00:17:50,960
木木也有非常丰厚的奖励

417
00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:53,859
具体呢我都放在视频的下方了

418
00:17:53,859 --> 00:17:55,299
心动不如行动啊

419
00:17:55,299 --> 00:17:57,940
朋友们抓紧时间到视频下方

420
00:17:57,940 --> 00:18:00,140
点击我的专属邀请链接

421
00:18:00,140 --> 00:18:04,650
开户入金领取属于老李粉丝的专属福利

422
00:18:04,650 --> 00:18:05,990
感谢大家的收看

423
00:18:05,990 --> 00:18:08,319
让我们下期再见

共 11 条，按点赞数排序。

共 3 条，按视频时间排序。