为什么有钱人都在投资、你却在抗拒？你有这五大心理障碍吗？

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今天我们聊一个扎心

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但很多人都活在其中的状态

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叫做厌恶投资者

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或者说厌恶风险者

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注意不是暂时没投资的人

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而是那种一听到投资两个字就生理性反感

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并且会主动贬低这个行为的人

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我们常常把这种状态轻描淡写的叫做风险厌恶

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但今天我要做一个不客气的判断

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他们厌恶的根本不是风险

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而是不敢进入概率世界

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不敢用自己的决定去对一个不确定的未来负责

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接下来的10分钟

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我会拆解五个深层心理机制

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把这套失败者心态还原成一份可以识别

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可以修正的心理脚本

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他不是人格判决

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先把结论挂在最前面

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烟雾投资者真正在抗拒的是

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在不确定性里做决策这件事本身

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以及随之而来的责任归因和情绪承担

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我们要打掉三个直觉

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第一不投资不等于没风险

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只是把风险换成了通胀和机会成本

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这种看不见的形式

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第二他们怕的不是亏钱

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而是怕这是我做的决定

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让我亏的钱

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第三失败者心态是一组可以被识别的心理脚本

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不是性格污点

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带着这三点

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我们看五个机制

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第一个机制是塞利格曼提出的经典概念

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他的核心是当一个人反复体验到努力到结果

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这条因果链被切断

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他学到的不是这次没成

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而是努力本身没有意义

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搬到投资场景里

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长期收入受限

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反复目睹身边人被割韭菜

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大脑就会形成一种很顽固的认知

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那就是在钱这件事上

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我做什么都没用

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但这里开始变危险

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他没有就此放弃

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而是给放弃包装了一层尊严

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最后输出的就是那句你一定听过的话

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我不投资

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不是我不行

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是我清醒

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他把放弃伪装成了觉悟

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第二个机制叫零风险偏误行为

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经济学里有个反直觉的发现

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人们宁可花更高的代价去消灭一种小风险

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也不愿意用更低的代价去显著降低总风险

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搬到今天的场景里

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看两个选项

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选项A百分之百确定的通胀贬值

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购买力每年都在掉

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但他不出现在账户截图上

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没有红字

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也没有需要解释的决定

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于是大脑判定这不是风险

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选项B不确定的市场波动

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可能赚也可能亏

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长期期望甚至是正的

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但每天都有可见的红绿

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每次回撤都像一次判决

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所有结果你都要自己签字

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于是大脑判定这才是风险

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你看他们不是在权衡风险

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而是把可见性当成了风险本身

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第三个机制是利托夫和巴伦研究多年的

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不作为偏误

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核心命题很简单

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人类在心理上把做了导致的损失

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看得比不做导致的损失更不可接受

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哪怕两者客观大小一样

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举个例子

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情景A你买的基金3年亏了10万

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你会自责

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会后悔

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要跟家人解释

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社会评价是你不该乱投资

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这个亏损被认领成你的决定

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请景币

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你什么都没买

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购买力被通胀蚕食了10万

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几乎没人会苛责你

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包括你自己

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社会评价是你稳健

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这个亏损被归因成环境和运气跟我无关

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于是不投资

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被悄悄包装成了一个道德上的安全选项

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至少我没有犯错

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但请记住

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不犯错不等于没有承担后果

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只是这个后果没有人会替你打红叉而已

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第四个机制是费斯廷格的认知失调

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俗称酸葡萄机制

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很简单

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当我想要和我做不到同时存在

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人会产生强烈的心理不适

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而修改态度比修改行为容易得多

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所以最省力的解法不是去学

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而是改写认知

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那东西本来就不好

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这就是为什么你会反复听到这些话

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第一句炒股的都是赌徒

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把整个领域污名化

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掩盖自己从未进入的事实

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第二句

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房子才是真的资产

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用熟悉感替代风险评估

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回避陌生领域

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第三句都是镰刀

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普通人没机会用阴谋叙事

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一次性吸收所有不甘心

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我必须强调

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这些话本身不一定是错的

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但当他们变成一个人

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拒绝学习

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拒绝行动的统一借口时

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他们就不再是判断

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而是认知失调的消解工具

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判断之后人会行动

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借口之后人只会原地不动

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第五个机制也是最狠的一刀

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来自交易心理学家范撒普

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他几十年的研究得出一个反常识的结论

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交易者的失败主要不来自单笔操作

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而来自心理画像

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他画过一张失败者人格画像

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我抽出四个核心特质

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第一抗压差

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一次回撤就否定整个体系

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把波动当成攻击

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第二悲观预设

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默认最坏情况一定发生在自己身上

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预先放弃

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第三归因外部市场是坑

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规则不公

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所有责任往外推

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第四随波逐流

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别人买他才买

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别人慌

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他更慌

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没有自己的规则

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对厌恶投资者来说

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这四个特质在入场之前就已经在了

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所以今天最关键的一句话是

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他们的失败不在交易里

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而在那个没有开始交易的版本里

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比亏过钱的人更彻底的失败者

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是从来不让自己有亏钱机会的人

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因为他们同时关闭了赚钱和成长的可能

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把五个机制串起来

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是一个非常工整的心理闭环

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第一步

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原始恐惧

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对不确定和不可控的本能厌恶

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第二步

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心理过滤

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零风险偏误加上不作为偏误

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让不做这件事看起来很安全

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第三步

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让不做这件事看起来很聪明

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第四步

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行为输出

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不开始学习

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不建立仓位

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不参与概率决策

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第五步

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长期结果购买力下降

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机会成本积累

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与同代人的差距固化

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然后最阴险的一步来了

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长期结果反过来强化最初的恐惧

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你看普通人就是没机会闭环锁死

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可怕的地方在于

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每一步都让人感觉我在做对的事

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但整体在变穷

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可旧的地方在于它是一个心理脚本

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脚本就可以被识别

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也可以被改写到这里

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很多人会以为我要喊快去投资

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快买股票

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不是的

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我必须把这一面说清楚

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否则这期视频就变成了他最讨厌的反面

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我不是在说胆大就成熟

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满仓就勇敢看空

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就是失败者

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看多就是觉醒者

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我在说的是更朴素的

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是把心态从拒绝切换到管理

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具体四步

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第一风险教育在先

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先弄懂概率和回撤

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再谈仓位

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第二仓位结构永远只用亏掉

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也不影响生活的钱去参与不确定性

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第三明确规则

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止损在平衡长期视角写下来

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不靠情绪执行

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第四责任归位

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承认决定是我做的

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结果也由我承担

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这一整套从头到尾没有让你去赌

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他是在让你学会负责

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我们做一个30秒的小测试

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在过去12个月里

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下面这些话有几条从你嘴里出来过

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第一句

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反正研究了也学不会

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第二句

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放银行最安全

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至少看得见

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对应零风险偏物

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第三句

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我不动前就不会做错决定

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对应不作为偏物

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第四句

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投资的人都是赌徒

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都是被割的韭菜

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对应认知失调和酸葡萄

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第五句

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市场跌的时候

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我就知道我是对的

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对应悲观预设

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第六句

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别人买我才考虑别人跑

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我也跟着跑

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00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:35,038
对应随波逐流

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命中越多越说明你抵触的可能不是风险

236
00:08:39,119 --> 00:08:40,558
而是自己做主

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自己负责

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这两件事本身

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00:08:42,860 --> 00:08:44,299
这没什么羞耻

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00:08:44,299 --> 00:08:46,779
识别到了就是修正的起点

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00:08:47,820 --> 00:08:50,000
天的结论只有一句话

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真正的安全不是不冒险

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而是把风险变成可以识别

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可以量化

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可以管理的对象

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00:08:57,490 --> 00:08:59,190
落到三个动作

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第一识别脚本

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00:09:00,970 --> 00:09:05,210
下次想说我不投资是因为我清醒的时候停半秒

249
00:09:05,210 --> 00:09:06,409
问自己一句

250
00:09:06,409 --> 00:09:08,789
这是分析还是合理化

251
00:09:08,789 --> 00:09:10,460
第二替换语言

252
00:09:10,460 --> 00:09:13,240
把我不投资换成更诚实的版本

253
00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:16,559
那就是我现在还不敢为我的决定负责

254
00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:18,500
诚实是改变的起点

255
00:09:18,500 --> 00:09:20,960
第三从最小一步开始

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00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:23,019
先学概率再谈仓位

257
00:09:23,019 --> 00:09:24,399
最后才谈品种

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顺序

259
00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:26,850
错了结果一定错

260
00:09:26,850 --> 00:09:28,649
厌恶投资者的失败者

261
00:09:28,649 --> 00:09:30,490
心态不是一种性格

262
00:09:30,490 --> 00:09:33,779
而是一种长期被允许的内心叙事

263
00:09:33,779 --> 00:09:35,120
既然是叙事

264
00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:38,259
就可以被一句诚实的自我提问改写

265
00:09:38,259 --> 00:09:39,500
感谢观看

266
00:09:39,500 --> 00:09:41,429
我们下期再见

267
00:09:41,429 --> 00:09:45,009
本期内容参考了以下研究与著作

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00:09:47,929 --> 00:09:51,309
1976年于2016年的两篇论文

269
00:09:51,309 --> 00:09:51,990
不作为

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00:09:51,990 --> 00:09:55,909
偏误部分来自利托夫与巴伦在1992年

271
00:09:55,909 --> 00:09:59,500
1994年和2004年的系列研究

272
00:09:59,500 --> 00:10:02,700
零风险偏误部分来自施耐德等人

273
00:10:02,700 --> 00:10:06,429
2021年与梅齐奥等人2018年的论文

274
00:10:06,429 --> 00:10:09,129
认知失调部分来自费斯廷格

275
00:10:09,129 --> 00:10:10,990
1957年的经典著作

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00:10:10,990 --> 00:10:13,659
以及库珀2019年的综述

277
00:10:13,659 --> 00:10:15,759
失败者人格画像部分

278
00:10:15,759 --> 00:10:18,279
来自范萨普研究所的公开资料

279
00:10:18,279 --> 00:10:19,960
以及范萨普的著作

280
00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:21,929
通向财务自由之路

281
00:10:21,929 --> 00:10:24,710
建议把这些机制当做自检工具

282
00:10:24,710 --> 00:10:26,818
而不是给他人贴标签

283
00:10:26,818 --> 00:10:30,139
识别脚本是改写脚本的第一步

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