BV1oYReBFEo5 · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:00,700 大家好 2 00:00:00,700 --> 00:00:03,180 今天咱们直接进入正题 3 00:00:03,180 --> 00:00:06,099 来拆解一份信息量巨大的瑞银 4 00:00:06,099 --> 00:00:08,789 也就是UBS的股票研究报告 5 00:00:08,789 --> 00:00:12,269 今天的主角绝对是重量级内蒙古伊犁 6 00:00:12,269 --> 00:00:13,189 我知道啊 7 00:00:13,189 --> 00:00:15,869 平时看那些密密麻麻的投研报告 8 00:00:15,869 --> 00:00:17,870 真的挺让人头疼的对吧 9 00:00:17,870 --> 00:00:18,629 别担心 10 00:00:18,629 --> 00:00:22,070 今天我来帮大家把这份硬核报告揉碎了 11 00:00:22,070 --> 00:00:23,050 掰开了讲 12 00:00:23,050 --> 00:00:26,850 咱们一起来看看这家中国乳业巨头的基本面里 13 00:00:26,850 --> 00:00:30,118 到底藏着什么有意思的投资故事 14 00:00:30,118 --> 00:00:34,130 所以咱们首先得问一个最核心的问题 15 00:00:34,130 --> 00:00:38,530 伊利最难熬的日子是不是真的已经翻篇儿啦 16 00:00:38,530 --> 00:00:42,170 一直关注大消费和乳业的朋友们肯定知道 17 00:00:42,170 --> 00:00:43,770 伊利最近这段时间 18 00:00:43,770 --> 00:00:44,469 说实话 19 00:00:44,469 --> 00:00:46,450 确实是在整个乳业板块 20 00:00:46,450 --> 00:00:49,130 艰难的下行周期里苦苦挣扎 21 00:00:49,130 --> 00:00:52,649 不过呢在这份最新的财报电话会议摘要里 22 00:00:52,649 --> 00:00:55,250 我们嗅到了一个非常强烈的反转信号 23 00:00:55,250 --> 00:00:58,899 感觉复苏的曙光真的就在眼前了 24 00:00:58,899 --> 00:01:02,619 那么我们为什么非得花时间抠这份报道呢 25 00:01:02,619 --> 00:01:03,780 看这个数字 26 00:01:03,780 --> 00:01:05,409 48.4帕 27 00:01:05,409 --> 00:01:06,870 没错你没听错 28 00:01:06,870 --> 00:01:10,629 这是瑞银给出的伊利股票预期回报率 29 00:01:10,629 --> 00:01:11,310 老实说 30 00:01:11,310 --> 00:01:12,769 在现在的市场环境下 31 00:01:12,769 --> 00:01:16,599 这绝对算得上是一个惊人的潜在上涨空间了 32 00:01:16,599 --> 00:01:17,700 接下来的时间 33 00:01:17,700 --> 00:01:21,980 我们要做的就是用数据和逻辑来硬核验证一下 34 00:01:21,980 --> 00:01:25,599 这个高期待值的论点到底站不站得住脚 35 00:01:25,599 --> 00:01:27,799 为了让大家听得更清晰 36 00:01:27,799 --> 00:01:30,319 咱们今天分六个部分来捋 37 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:33,340 首先是乳业巨头的前景展望 38 00:01:33,340 --> 00:01:36,420 接着看它的细分市场和增长点 39 00:01:36,420 --> 00:01:38,700 然后是渠道与海外扩张 40 00:01:38,700 --> 00:01:41,750 第四部分聊聊财务预测与利润率 41 00:01:41,750 --> 00:01:44,549 第五是估值与买入评级 42 00:01:44,549 --> 00:01:46,209 最后呢咱们再扩关 43 00:01:46,209 --> 00:01:48,859 看看行业风险与逆风因素 44 00:01:48,859 --> 00:01:51,590 好的咱们先来看第一部分 45 00:01:51,590 --> 00:01:54,709 这艘乳业巨头的前景展望 46 00:01:54,709 --> 00:01:58,129 也就是管理层眼里的中长期愿景 47 00:01:58,129 --> 00:02:00,590 财报电话会议一结束 48 00:02:00,590 --> 00:02:04,159 瑞银分析师就划了这么一句重点 49 00:02:04,159 --> 00:02:06,140 叶菜乃业务企稳 50 00:02:06,140 --> 00:02:08,639 增长势头保持良好 51 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:12,118 这句话真的是一针见血地概括了 52 00:02:12,118 --> 00:02:13,689 伊利现在的状态 53 00:02:13,689 --> 00:02:14,669 啥意思呢 54 00:02:14,669 --> 00:02:18,750 就是说他那个占绝对大头的液态奶基本盘 55 00:02:18,750 --> 00:02:20,069 终于稳住了 56 00:02:20,069 --> 00:02:23,789 同时那些新的增长引擎不仅没熄火 57 00:02:23,789 --> 00:02:25,150 反而在狂奔 58 00:02:25,150 --> 00:02:28,129 这种稳盘子加抓增长的局面 59 00:02:28,129 --> 00:02:30,819 确实给管理层打了一剂强心针 60 00:02:30,819 --> 00:02:34,930 接下来进入第二部分细分市场及增长点 61 00:02:34,930 --> 00:02:37,449 咱们得拿放大镜去看看 62 00:02:37,449 --> 00:02:41,110 伊利这个庞大的产品组合里面到底长啥样 63 00:02:41,110 --> 00:02:44,729 在这里你能看到一个特别有意思的对比 64 00:02:44,729 --> 00:02:47,210 左手边是它的基本盘 65 00:02:47,210 --> 00:02:51,020 液态奶熬过了整个行业的阵痛期之后 66 00:02:51,020 --> 00:02:53,199 预计到2026年第一季度 67 00:02:53,199 --> 00:02:56,550 这个核心业务就能重回正增长的轨道了 68 00:02:56,550 --> 00:03:00,909 也就是说最惨的谷底大概率已经被甩在身后了 69 00:03:00,909 --> 00:03:04,330 那右手边呢是极其亮眼的高增长 70 00:03:04,330 --> 00:03:06,490 明星奶粉和冰淇淋 71 00:03:06,490 --> 00:03:09,129 这增长势头简直不要太猛 72 00:03:09,129 --> 00:03:10,509 既然提到奶粉 73 00:03:10,509 --> 00:03:12,530 大家一定要看这个数字 74 00:03:12,530 --> 00:03:14,229 18.3帕 75 00:03:14,229 --> 00:03:18,430 这是瑞银预计伊利在2025年能拿下的 76 00:03:18,430 --> 00:03:21,270 国内婴儿幼儿配方奶粉市场份额 77 00:03:21,270 --> 00:03:25,210 你想想现在国内母婴赛豆卷成什么样了 78 00:03:25,210 --> 00:03:27,719 能在这种红海里杀出重围 79 00:03:27,719 --> 00:03:29,919 稳坐行业第一把交椅 80 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:32,599 这含金量绝对是拉满的 81 00:03:32,599 --> 00:03:35,080 而且惊喜还不止于此 82 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:37,689 来看看其他几条战线的战绩 83 00:03:37,689 --> 00:03:41,210 低温液态奶这块表现直接甩开同行 84 00:03:41,210 --> 00:03:44,189 同比实现了差不多20%的增长 85 00:03:44,189 --> 00:03:45,650 冰淇淋就更稳了 86 00:03:45,650 --> 00:03:47,990 不仅保住了全国第一的市场份额 87 00:03:47,990 --> 00:03:50,209 还拿下了双位数增长 88 00:03:50,209 --> 00:03:52,489 不过最让我觉得有野心的是 89 00:03:52,489 --> 00:03:55,460 他的奶酪业务管理层直接放话 90 00:03:55,460 --> 00:03:57,580 立下了一个超级宏大的目标 91 00:04:01,819 --> 00:04:04,979 也这也再次证明了伊利在产品线延伸上 92 00:04:04,979 --> 00:04:06,560 那可怕的执行力 93 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:07,719 东西做得好 94 00:04:07,719 --> 00:04:09,729 还得卖得出去对吧 95 00:04:09,729 --> 00:04:11,949 所以来到第三部分 96 00:04:11,949 --> 00:04:13,990 渠道与海外扩张 97 00:04:13,990 --> 00:04:16,449 看看他们是怎么找新路子的 98 00:04:16,449 --> 00:04:18,750 大家平时逛超市肯定也有感觉 99 00:04:18,750 --> 00:04:21,209 现在咱们的购物习惯早就变了 100 00:04:21,209 --> 00:04:23,468 伊利这波最聪明的地方在于 101 00:04:23,468 --> 00:04:26,980 他一点都没头铁去死守传统商朝渠道 102 00:04:26,980 --> 00:04:30,819 而是极其迅速的把触角伸向了现在最火的零食 103 00:04:30,819 --> 00:04:32,788 折扣店和仓储会员店 104 00:04:32,788 --> 00:04:34,608 事实上从数据来看 105 00:04:34,608 --> 00:04:37,108 这两个新型渠道在2025财年 106 00:04:37,108 --> 00:04:39,220 都跑出了双位数的销售增长 107 00:04:39,220 --> 00:04:40,699 这实打实的证明 108 00:04:40,699 --> 00:04:42,920 他们铺徐到的这套多元化打法 109 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:44,779 是真的切中要害了 110 00:04:44,779 --> 00:04:45,620 当然了 111 00:04:45,620 --> 00:04:48,060 巨头的眼光绝对不可能 112 00:04:48,060 --> 00:04:51,129 只盯在国内这一亩三分地上 113 00:04:51,129 --> 00:04:54,750 管理层给出的前瞻指引非常自信 114 00:04:54,750 --> 00:04:56,389 他们预计未来几年 115 00:04:56,389 --> 00:04:59,779 海外业务也能持续保持双位数的增长 116 00:04:59,779 --> 00:05:02,759 这就好比给伊利未来的增长剧本 117 00:05:02,759 --> 00:05:07,110 又加上了一块非常有想象空间的国际化拼图 118 00:05:07,110 --> 00:05:07,810 好了 119 00:05:07,810 --> 00:05:09,209 故事讲的再好 120 00:05:09,209 --> 00:05:10,600 咱们还得看账本 121 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:11,860 进入第四部分 122 00:05:11,860 --> 00:05:13,720 财务预测与利润率 123 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:17,170 我们来算算这场业绩逆转背后的数学账 124 00:05:17,170 --> 00:05:20,470 看看这个营收预测的数字柱状图啊 125 00:05:20,470 --> 00:05:21,589 特别直观 126 00:05:21,589 --> 00:05:23,410 2024~2025 127 00:05:23,410 --> 00:05:26,649 这两年受制于整个大行业的逆风 128 00:05:26,649 --> 00:05:28,430 营收可以说是横盘 129 00:05:28,430 --> 00:05:29,889 在这里基本持平 130 00:05:29,889 --> 00:05:31,949 但是划重点了啊 131 00:05:31,949 --> 00:05:34,790 随着前面咱们说的基本盘企稳 132 00:05:34,790 --> 00:05:36,189 新引擎发力 133 00:05:36,189 --> 00:05:37,819 到了2026年 134 00:05:37,819 --> 00:05:40,920 瑞银预计会迎来一个漂亮的跃升 135 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:44,298 直接冲到大约1210亿人民币 136 00:05:44,298 --> 00:05:46,759 这种油门踩到底的推背感 137 00:05:46,759 --> 00:05:49,559 在营收单上终于体现出来了 138 00:05:49,559 --> 00:05:52,238 不过呢作为成熟的投资者 139 00:05:52,238 --> 00:05:54,298 咱们不能光看贼吃肉 140 00:05:54,298 --> 00:05:56,178 还得懂里面的门道 141 00:05:56,178 --> 00:05:58,000 来看看利润率展望 142 00:05:58,000 --> 00:05:59,500 基于管理层的止盈 143 00:05:59,500 --> 00:06:02,720 得益于产品组合优化和原奶成本稳定 144 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:06,300 毛利率也就是GPM确实会温和改善 145 00:06:06,300 --> 00:06:08,579 但是短期内的净利润率 146 00:06:08,579 --> 00:06:11,470 大概率是要趴在原地保持平稳的 147 00:06:11,470 --> 00:06:12,410 为什么呢 148 00:06:12,410 --> 00:06:13,550 其实很简单 149 00:06:13,550 --> 00:06:15,490 现在市场竞争太激烈了 150 00:06:15,490 --> 00:06:19,100 伊犁必须得砸点真金白银去搞营销抢地盘儿 151 00:06:19,100 --> 00:06:21,540 所以说这不是那种一夜暴富 152 00:06:21,540 --> 00:06:23,600 利润井喷的爽文剧本 153 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:25,740 而是一场极其考验耐力的 154 00:06:25,740 --> 00:06:28,178 稳扎稳打的渐进式复苏 155 00:06:28,178 --> 00:06:30,879 那么看完基本面和财务 156 00:06:30,879 --> 00:06:32,499 咱们进入第五部分 157 00:06:32,499 --> 00:06:34,490 估值与买入评级 158 00:06:34,490 --> 00:06:37,870 来看看瑞行到底凭啥喊出买入 159 00:06:37,870 --> 00:06:38,829 来看这儿 160 00:06:38,829 --> 00:06:41,839 这里面藏着一个非常有趣的鸿沟 161 00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:45,279 如果咱们把伊利在市场上的实际交易价格 162 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:48,420 跟瑞银给出的目标价放在一起对比 163 00:06:48,420 --> 00:06:49,310 你会发现 164 00:06:49,310 --> 00:06:52,939 这两条线之间长期存在着一个不小的缺口 165 00:06:52,939 --> 00:06:53,980 这就说明啥 166 00:06:53,980 --> 00:06:55,279 在瑞银看来 167 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:58,199 整个市场目前根本还没有充分计入 168 00:06:58,199 --> 00:07:00,560 伊利未来复苏的全部潜力 169 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:03,620 所以咱们回到一开始那个吓人的数字 170 00:07:03,620 --> 00:07:06,540 48.4%的预期总回报率 171 00:07:06,540 --> 00:07:08,329 到底是怎么捏出来的 172 00:07:08,329 --> 00:07:11,290 其实它是由两块大头拼在一起的 173 00:07:11,290 --> 00:07:14,389 第一块是高达42.3%的股价 174 00:07:14,389 --> 00:07:16,870 潜在上涨空间就还没完 175 00:07:16,870 --> 00:07:20,170 第二块是这支股票还带着一个非常健康 176 00:07:20,170 --> 00:07:22,889 达到6.1%的预测股息收益率 177 00:07:22,889 --> 00:07:25,829 你看左手是高成长带来的资本利得 178 00:07:25,829 --> 00:07:29,759 右手是实实在在的分红防御简直是攻守兼备 179 00:07:29,759 --> 00:07:32,220 综合这一整套逻辑 180 00:07:32,220 --> 00:07:36,040 瑞云果断重申了对伊利的买入评级 181 00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:40,180 而且他们可是跑了非常严谨的折现现金流 182 00:07:40,180 --> 00:07:42,389 也就是DCF模型算出来的 183 00:07:42,389 --> 00:07:44,850 直接给出了未来12个月 184 00:07:44,850 --> 00:07:47,569 37.8块人民币的目标价 185 00:07:47,569 --> 00:07:48,209 可以说 186 00:07:48,209 --> 00:07:51,329 这就是投行对这家公司基本面信心的 187 00:07:51,329 --> 00:07:52,649 最硬核的量化 188 00:07:52,649 --> 00:07:55,689 体现到了最重要的环节了 189 00:07:55,689 --> 00:07:58,170 投资没有稳赢的局 190 00:07:58,170 --> 00:07:59,069 第六部分 191 00:07:59,069 --> 00:08:03,910 咱们来看看行业风险与逆风因素到底有哪些 192 00:08:03,910 --> 00:08:04,589 绊脚石 193 00:08:04,589 --> 00:08:08,110 可能会彻底打乱上面这些美好的预期 194 00:08:08,110 --> 00:08:09,209 我们都知道 195 00:08:09,209 --> 00:08:11,170 乳制品这种消费刚需 196 00:08:11,170 --> 00:08:14,639 其实对外部的宏观经济体感是非常敏感的 197 00:08:14,639 --> 00:08:16,800 瑞宾的分析师也很清醒 198 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:20,420 他们列出了六个可能随时掀桌子的风险点 199 00:08:20,420 --> 00:08:22,199 大家一定要竖起耳朵听 200 00:08:22,199 --> 00:08:24,189 第一经济增速放缓 201 00:08:24,189 --> 00:08:25,829 大家不舍得花钱了 202 00:08:25,829 --> 00:08:27,220 需求自然就萎缩 203 00:08:27,220 --> 00:08:30,579 第二这一波行业供过于求的寒冬 204 00:08:30,579 --> 00:08:33,480 万一比大家想的要还要漫长呢 205 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:35,340 第三原材料成本 206 00:08:35,340 --> 00:08:36,379 通胀的压力 207 00:08:36,379 --> 00:08:38,809 第四食品安全问题 208 00:08:38,809 --> 00:08:42,570 这可是悬在所有拾起头顶的达摩克利斯之剑 209 00:08:42,570 --> 00:08:43,929 绝对的高压线 210 00:08:43,929 --> 00:08:46,529 最后还包括政策监管的变化 211 00:08:46,529 --> 00:08:49,149 以及他们自己去做并购可能踩到的坑 212 00:08:49,149 --> 00:08:51,570 这些都是血淋淋的现实挑战 213 00:08:51,570 --> 00:08:54,389 作为投资者绝对不能装作看不见 214 00:08:54,389 --> 00:08:56,889 我们随便挑一个核心变量来说 215 00:08:56,889 --> 00:08:57,960 比如成本 216 00:08:57,960 --> 00:09:01,639 刚才瑞宾那些漂亮的预测都有一个大前提 217 00:09:01,639 --> 00:09:05,159 那就是上游生鲜乳的价格能够像预期那样 218 00:09:05,159 --> 00:09:07,179 在2026年顺利触底 219 00:09:07,179 --> 00:09:10,639 并且随着供需关系慢慢回归正常诶 220 00:09:10,639 --> 00:09:13,350 但万一呢万一这个曲缠能掉 221 00:09:13,350 --> 00:09:15,129 供球的过程卡壳了 222 00:09:15,129 --> 00:09:16,059 反复了 223 00:09:16,059 --> 00:09:18,559 那咱们前面聊的什么毛利率改善了 224 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:20,200 稳扎稳打的复苏了 225 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:21,340 基础就动摇了 226 00:09:21,340 --> 00:09:24,620 到时候整个逻辑都会受到最严峻的考验 227 00:09:24,620 --> 00:09:27,700 这也就引出了我们今天留给大家的最后一个轮 228 00:09:27,700 --> 00:09:28,610 魂拷问 229 00:09:28,610 --> 00:09:30,409 一边我们确实看到了 230 00:09:30,409 --> 00:09:33,250 伊利正在上演非常漂亮的营运反转 231 00:09:33,250 --> 00:09:34,610 不仅基本盘稳了 232 00:09:34,610 --> 00:09:36,070 新业务在四处开花 233 00:09:36,070 --> 00:09:37,849 估值看起来也香的不行 234 00:09:37,849 --> 00:09:40,509 但另一边那些宏观的周期的 235 00:09:40,509 --> 00:09:42,208 让人头疼的不确定性 236 00:09:42,208 --> 00:09:44,879 又像乌云一样笼罩在整个行业上空 237 00:09:44,879 --> 00:09:48,679 所以到底是这家乳业巨头的内生动力更能打 238 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:50,950 还是大环境的逆风阻力更强 239 00:09:50,950 --> 00:09:54,450 这绝对是一个需要大家结合今天这套硬核逻辑 240 00:09:55,509 --> 00:09:57,619 仔细掂量的问题了好了 241 00:09:57,619 --> 00:10:00,318 这就是今天这份研报的全部拆解内容 242 00:10:00,318 --> 00:10:02,119 希望能给大家带来一些启发 243 00:10:02,119 --> 00:10:03,899 咱们下期再见
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