价值投资亏钱？不要再编故事欺骗自己了！

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很多人亏钱以后最喜欢说一句话

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我是价值投资

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市场迟早会发现它的价值

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可问题是你买的真的是价值吗

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还是你只是用价值投资这四个字

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给自己的投机找了一个体面的包装嗯

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投机不是原罪

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投机当然可以赚钱

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甚至很多时候赚的比价值投资更快

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但投机最大的问题是它不长久

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投机赚钱靠的是故事还没破

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情绪还没散

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接盘的人还在

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价值投资赚钱靠的是公司长期创造真实价值

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真正的价值投资不只是买一家赚钱的公司

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而是买一家长期创造真实价值

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长期被消费者需要

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并且用相对正当的方式赚钱的公司

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如果利润主要来自面子攀比

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信息差

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成瘾炒作或者冲动消费

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那你买的未必是价值

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可能只是投机

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先说高端白酒

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白酒当然有正常消费需求

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朋友聚会

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家庭宴请

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个人饮用

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这些都是真实需求

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但高端白酒长期还有另一层属性

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礼品属性

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宴情属性

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身份属性

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收藏属性

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甚至在某些场景里

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它更像是腐败和面子的货币

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这里不是对任何企业做法律定性

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而是在讨论一种商业现象

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当一种商品不只是被消费

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而是被用来送礼撑场面

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建立关系

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表达身份

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它的价格里就可能包含大量面子溢价

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你买的可能不是消费升级

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而是在投机

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一种面子系统还能不能延续

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经济下行

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企业宴请减少

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消费预期变弱时

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高端白酒的估值逻辑自然会被重新审视

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你以为你买的是消费龙头

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但你真正买到的可能是面子溢价

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社交议价

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礼品溢价和关系场景溢价

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再说

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某粗粮公司

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新能源车当然是大趋势

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电动化

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智能化

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供应链升级都是真实产业变化

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但大趋势不等于每家公司都是好公司

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行业有前途

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也不代表所有玩家都有长期价值

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投资者不能只看发布会

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热搜订单量和创始人光环

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更要看这家公司如何营销

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如何对待消费者

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如何处理安全和责任

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真正值得讨论的是一种商业表达方式

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大字负责让你心动

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小字负责让他免责

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你在海报上看到的是旗舰体验

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超长续航

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智能驾驶性能怪兽

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然后你低头一看小字页面效果仅为示意

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数据来自实验室环境

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实际表现以具体使用场景为准

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部分功能需后续推送

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图片和文字不构成购买承诺

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大字像梦想

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小字像现实

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如果一家公司靠清晰透明的产品力赢得消费者

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那是长期价值

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如果一家公司靠流量情绪

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粉丝文化和模糊表达制造预期

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那就更像投机

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流量

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热的时候

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像信仰冷的时候可能会反噬

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再说拼夕夕低价本身不是错

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很多消费者需要便宜商品

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这是真实需求

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但低价有两种

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一种是效率革命

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同样质量成本更低

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另一种是恶性内卷

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商品越来越便宜

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质量越来越差

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商家利润越来越薄

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嗯真正的好低价是把中间环节砍掉

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坏低价是把质量服务

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商家利润和消费者信任一起砍掉

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真正的效率是让好东西变便宜

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恶性内卷是让便宜东西看起来像好东西

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再说某潮玩公司潮玩不是原罪

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年轻人喜欢可爱的东西

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喜欢收藏

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喜欢表达情绪

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这都正常

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一个玩偶能让人开心

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他就有消费价值

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一个IP能持续被喜欢

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他就可能有文化价值

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但如果增长主要依赖稀缺忙和炒作

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二级市场涨价和冲动消费

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那他就有很强的投机属性

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你买它不一定是在买文化

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可能是在买情绪周期

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情绪来的时候是社交货币

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情绪走的时候就是库存

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所以投资不能完全脱离价值观

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你买什么样的公司

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就在支持什么样的商业模式

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如果你买的是靠创新赚钱的公司

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你就在支持创新

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如果你买的是靠信息差

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面子内卷情绪炒作赚钱的公司

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你也在支持这些东西变得更强

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当然这不代表你永远不能买这些股票

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市场里没有绝对纯洁的公司

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投资者也不是圣人

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但你至少要诚实

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如果你买的是投机

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就承认自己在投机

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不要一边赚情绪的钱

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一边说自己是价值投资

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投机必须有投机的纪律

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知道什么时候进

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什么时候退

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知道自己赚的是谁的钱

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也知道故事什么时候可能结束

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最怕的是明明在投机

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却以为自己在价值投资涨的时候

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觉得自己眼光独到

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跌的时候觉得市场不懂价值

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最后输给自己编出来的故事

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真正的价值投资是买那些

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长期创造真实价值的公司

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他们的产品让生活更好服务

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让效率更高

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赚钱方式让人尊重

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长期增长和社会进步方向一致

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社会越透明

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消费者越理性

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监管越完善

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他越能证明自己

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所以价值投资亏钱了

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别急着怪市场

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先问问自己

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你买的到底是价值还是投机

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你是真的相信这家公司在创造长期价值

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还是只是相信

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还有人会用更高价格接走你的筹码

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做好人

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买好股得好报

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这句话不是鸡汤

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他真正的意思是

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你的投资组合最终会暴露你的世界观

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投机可以赢一时

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但只有真正创造价值的公司才可能赢一世

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本视频仅为财经教育

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商业模式分析和投资理念讨论

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不构成任何投资建议

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也不构成对任何公司产品或个人的事实指控

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法律定性或道德审判

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投资有风险

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决策需谨慎

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