BV1nsReBiEee · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:03,120 如何查询铀的价格 2 00:00:04,200 --> 00:00:04,700 呃 3 00:00:04,700 --> 00:00:05,120 嗯 4 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:07,160 有一个叫uxc的地方 5 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:10,019 你也可以去Trading Economics网站 6 00:00:10,019 --> 00:00:11,740 并且它们提供免费数据 7 00:00:11,740 --> 00:00:13,039 如果你想的话 8 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:14,599 你知道实时热点数据 9 00:00:14,599 --> 00:00:16,239 你需要付费获取 10 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:18,059 但存在公开信息 11 00:00:18,059 --> 00:00:19,189 那个 12 00:00:19,548 --> 00:00:21,208 铀的问题在于 13 00:00:21,208 --> 00:00:27,760 是像纸面市场那样的现货价格，有些玩家在其中操作 14 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:29,179 但真正的价格 15 00:00:29,179 --> 00:00:29,960 如果有的话 16 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:31,960 实际买家愿意支付的价格 17 00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:33,399 以及他们确实有买家 18 00:00:33,399 --> 00:00:34,590 这不像 19 00:00:34,590 --> 00:00:35,329 你知道的 20 00:00:35,329 --> 00:00:36,270 黄金或铜 21 00:00:36,270 --> 00:00:37,909 那里有LME交易所 22 00:00:37,909 --> 00:00:42,030 所有这些矿产实际上直接卖给终端用户 23 00:00:42,030 --> 00:00:44,310 并且存在整个燃料循环过程 24 00:00:44,310 --> 00:00:45,738 但他们确实签订合同 25 00:00:45,738 --> 00:00:49,118 而长期合同价格才是驱动行业发展的核心 26 00:00:49,118 --> 00:00:50,859 这是获得银行贷款的关键 27 00:00:50,859 --> 00:00:52,738 用于新建矿山等项目 28 00:00:52,738 --> 00:00:55,219 这只能在事后才能看到 29 00:00:55,219 --> 00:00:57,759 比如他们无需公开当前操作 30 00:00:57,759 --> 00:01:01,039 后续在财务报表和季度报告中会体现 31 00:01:01,039 --> 00:01:03,439 可能不会按合同细分 32 00:01:03,439 --> 00:01:06,078 因此需要事后推断 33 00:01:06,078 --> 00:01:07,778 这有点棘手 34 00:01:07,778 --> 00:01:09,799 但也创造了机会 35 00:01:09,799 --> 00:01:11,198 因为假设 36 00:01:11,198 --> 00:01:14,129 现货价格因恐慌暴跌 37 00:01:14,129 --> 00:01:15,689 比如在扎波罗热附近发生炮击时 38 00:01:15,689 --> 00:01:19,509 俄乌冲突与民用核能无关 39 00:01:19,509 --> 00:01:21,028 实际上并未 40 00:01:21,028 --> 00:01:22,668 未释放辐射 41 00:01:22,668 --> 00:01:23,629 并无问题 42 00:01:23,629 --> 00:01:27,980 但仅因核电站附近发生炮击 43 00:01:27,980 --> 00:01:30,420 导致现货价格暴跌 44 00:01:30,420 --> 00:01:32,719 引发股价下跌 45 00:01:32,719 --> 00:01:35,980 当市场过度反应时 46 00:01:35,980 --> 00:01:37,239 我认为这是机会 47 00:01:37,239 --> 00:01:37,719 当你询问 48 00:01:37,719 --> 00:01:37,939 比如 49 00:01:37,939 --> 00:01:38,420 你知道吗 50 00:01:38,420 --> 00:01:39,370 什么触发了 51 00:01:39,370 --> 00:01:40,890 我要找的是这个 52 00:01:40,890 --> 00:01:44,930 这种局面简直就是市场先生的慷慨馈赠 53 00:01:45,939 --> 00:01:47,340 所以你知道的 54 00:01:47,340 --> 00:01:49,579 这其实指向了这一点 55 00:01:49,579 --> 00:01:55,549 你和我的投机表达方式可能完全不同 56 00:01:55,549 --> 00:01:56,049 没错 57 00:01:56,049 --> 00:01:57,590 可能需要更长期一点 58 00:01:57,590 --> 00:01:58,569 或许更短期一些 59 00:01:58,569 --> 00:01:59,280 随便吧 60 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:02,879 但听起来你和我一样是个逆向投资者 61 00:02:02,879 --> 00:02:06,299 你害怕在顶部买入股票和债券 62 00:02:06,299 --> 00:02:08,080 而你在关注 63 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:08,819 呃 64 00:02:08,819 --> 00:02:11,180 像现在被重挫的铀这类资产 65 00:02:11,180 --> 00:02:12,020 我不 66 00:02:12,020 --> 00:02:17,860 至少我不清楚如何单独交易铀，不像铜那样 67 00:02:17,860 --> 00:02:19,939 我可以交易铜期货 68 00:02:19,939 --> 00:02:22,199 我不认为有铀期货交易 69 00:02:22,199 --> 00:02:24,319 根据你描述的情况 70 00:02:24,319 --> 00:02:27,500 这些公司参与远期合约 71 00:02:27,500 --> 00:02:30,020 这是期货的前身 72 00:02:30,020 --> 00:02:31,979 公司会像你说的那样 73 00:02:31,979 --> 00:02:32,259 你知道的 74 00:02:32,259 --> 00:02:35,039 我们将在未来6个月或一年内卖出一定量的铜 75 00:02:35,039 --> 00:02:36,099 或者打断一下 76 00:02:36,099 --> 00:02:37,560 铀啊 77 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:40,020 在未来几个月或一年内 78 00:02:40,020 --> 00:02:41,159 这样对吗 79 00:02:41,159 --> 00:02:41,780 是的 80 00:02:41,780 --> 00:02:43,259 但有交易所交易基金 81 00:02:43,259 --> 00:02:43,479 所以 82 00:02:43,479 --> 00:02:46,400 如果你不想承担矿业公司的风险 83 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:49,159 比如重要许可被否决 84 00:02:49,159 --> 00:02:53,139 或发现其土地上有濒危蚊虫 85 00:02:53,139 --> 00:02:55,530 没错，那你可以选择 86 00:02:55,530 --> 00:02:56,990 你知道市场有热门选择 87 00:02:56,990 --> 00:02:58,729 我觉得我不该选偏爱 88 00:02:58,729 --> 00:03:00,969 但存在可以直接押注金属的ETF 89 00:03:00,969 --> 00:03:02,099 这样你就能抓住核心逻辑 90 00:03:02,099 --> 00:03:04,300 但无需成为专家挑选公司 91 00:03:04,300 --> 00:03:08,780 你可以押注金属而不必囤积放射性铀 92 00:03:08,780 --> 00:03:10,219 这样还有什么意思 93 00:03:13,219 --> 00:03:15,659 其实岔开说一下 94 00:03:15,659 --> 00:03:18,000 多年前我遇到一个本地人 95 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:25,000 他的爱好是寻找天然铀或天然放射性物质 96 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:25,659 好吧 97 00:03:25,659 --> 00:03:25,939 嘿 98 00:03:25,939 --> 00:03:27,319 随你喜欢 99 00:03:27,319 --> 00:03:28,039 嗯 100 00:03:28,039 --> 00:03:30,020 这是我需要关注的一个点 101 00:03:30,020 --> 00:03:32,568 嗯，关于铀的问题 102 00:03:32,568 --> 00:03:36,308 直到最近我才了解，因为我不是核工程师 103 00:03:36,308 --> 00:03:41,669 从任何角度来看，整个情况都像一个 104 00:03:41,669 --> 00:03:45,629 作为整个推动人工智能运动的旁枝 105 00:03:45,629 --> 00:03:50,659 人工智能和我们的数据中心如何自我能源化 106 00:03:50,659 --> 00:03:52,659 我了解到两者之间的区别 107 00:03:52,659 --> 00:03:54,020 比如说那个 108 00:03:54,020 --> 00:03:54,580 你知道的 109 00:03:54,580 --> 00:03:59,050 模块化反应堆建造商比如Olow 110 00:03:59,050 --> 00:03:59,669 例如 111 00:03:59,669 --> 00:04:01,409 与矿业公司相比 112 00:04:01,409 --> 00:04:06,930 我研究过的一个是UC公司 113 00:04:06,930 --> 00:04:09,189 我认为这是一个次要的 114 00:04:09,189 --> 00:04:12,240 我知道CCJ的 cameo 115 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:12,639 是的 116 00:04:12,639 --> 00:04:16,019 嗯，CCJ其实内部有不错的选择 117 00:04:16,019 --> 00:04:18,060 你知道两者有什么区别吗 118 00:04:18,060 --> 00:04:19,759 这在加拿大和其它地方有什么不同 119 00:04:19,759 --> 00:04:22,160 加拿大市场和美国市场有什么不同 120 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:23,800 在美国市场是否也是如此 121 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:27,129 铀矿资源能跨国流通吗 122 00:04:27,610 --> 00:04:28,850 是的，没错 123 00:04:28,850 --> 00:04:31,709 加拿大市场比美国小 124 00:04:31,709 --> 00:04:34,899 但非常专注于自然资源 125 00:04:34,899 --> 00:04:39,759 大量矿业勘探、开发和生产的资金 126 00:04:39,759 --> 00:04:42,319 都在加拿大筹集 127 00:04:42,319 --> 00:04:45,079 这并不意味着所有资金都是加拿大来源 128 00:04:45,079 --> 00:04:47,639 但据我所知约有七十 129 00:04:47,639 --> 00:04:50,500 五成交易来自这些大型加拿大企业 130 00:04:50,500 --> 00:04:53,339 加上众多中小型公司 131 00:04:53,339 --> 00:04:58,060 UC公司是美国企业持有加拿大资产 132 00:04:58,060 --> 00:05:00,839 CCJ在美上市 133 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:03,970 CCO在加拿大是本地公司 134 00:05:04,290 --> 00:05:07,089 但尽管有51%股权交易和各种 135 00:05:07,089 --> 00:05:08,170 这类花招 136 00:05:08,170 --> 00:05:10,350 美国和加拿大可以说是 137 00:05:10,350 --> 00:05:11,470 你知道的 138 00:05:11,470 --> 00:05:13,829 如果不是连体兄弟 139 00:05:13,829 --> 00:05:17,298 我们是血脉相连的兄弟，贸易频繁 140 00:05:17,298 --> 00:05:22,839 铀资源关系破裂会像石油一样引发问题 141 00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:23,399 就像你知道的 142 00:05:23,399 --> 00:05:25,420 我们常说美国是石油净出口国 143 00:05:25,420 --> 00:05:28,459 但实际是净出口因为大量进口自加拿大 144 00:05:28,459 --> 00:05:29,329 没错 145 00:05:29,329 --> 00:05:30,329 拆解这个关系 146 00:05:30,329 --> 00:05:31,269 我们将陷入困境 147 00:05:31,269 --> 00:05:36,100 所以对于交易员和投资者来说 148 00:05:36,100 --> 00:05:39,009 关键是关注股票上市地 149 00:05:39,009 --> 00:05:41,610 并非所有加拿大企业都有美股 150 00:05:41,610 --> 00:05:42,170 上市 151 00:05:42,170 --> 00:05:43,529 并且存在流动性风险 152 00:05:43,529 --> 00:05:46,360 如果最不济的话购买场外交易 153 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:48,800 但如果他们有正规的美股上市 154 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:50,079 那真的很有帮助 155 00:05:51,519 --> 00:05:54,819 而在另一方面你还没有谈到 156 00:05:54,819 --> 00:05:56,300 你在交易期权之类的产品 157 00:05:56,300 --> 00:05:58,459 但喜欢矿业股票的人 158 00:05:58,459 --> 00:06:01,480 参与私募的一种杠杆方式 159 00:06:02,199 --> 00:06:03,600 你知道的 160 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:04,759 对于新上市的中小型公司 161 00:06:04,759 --> 00:06:05,399 他们没有收入 162 00:06:05,399 --> 00:06:06,540 所以需要融资 163 00:06:06,540 --> 00:06:07,829 必须发行股份 164 00:06:07,829 --> 00:06:10,689 你知道有时会获得两年期认股权证 165 00:06:10,689 --> 00:06:14,589 这能以低风险杠杆参与上涨 166 00:06:14,589 --> 00:06:17,339 甚至u 167 00:06:17,339 --> 00:06:19,920 S投资者也需要国际 168 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:22,149 至少要有国际渠道 169 00:06:22,149 --> 00:06:22,870 否则的话 170 00:06:22,870 --> 00:06:24,029 如果你关注这个领域 171 00:06:25,069 --> 00:06:27,029 实际与加拿大经纪商合作 172 00:06:27,029 --> 00:06:29,019 他们能带你进入交易室和项目 173 00:06:29,019 --> 00:06:29,740 是的 174 00:06:29,740 --> 00:06:30,220 我是说 175 00:06:30,220 --> 00:06:32,420 我知道嗯 176 00:06:32,420 --> 00:06:38,399 谈到核能行业和经纪领域 177 00:06:38,399 --> 00:06:39,230 嗯 178 00:06:39,230 --> 00:06:40,069 我记得曾听说 179 00:06:40,069 --> 00:06:42,069 我在这一行干了很久 180 00:06:42,069 --> 00:06:43,069 好坏都经历过 181 00:06:43,069 --> 00:06:44,970 记得我刚开始时 182 00:06:44,970 --> 00:06:49,678 有人告诉我证券行业之外 183 00:06:49,678 --> 00:06:50,579 只有核能行业更受监管 184 00:06:50,579 --> 00:06:52,738 这可能至今仍成立 185 00:06:52,738 --> 00:06:55,810 不过确实很困难 186 00:06:55,810 --> 00:06:56,680 对于 187 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:59,519 加拿大人在此开户 188 00:06:59,519 --> 00:07:02,230 美国人去那边开户 189 00:07:02,230 --> 00:07:03,709 必须做足功课 190 00:07:03,709 --> 00:07:05,459 这确实 191 00:07:05,459 --> 00:07:06,740 可能很麻烦 192 00:07:06,740 --> 00:07:08,360 但看铀能公司 193 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:09,399 铀能能源 194 00:07:09,399 --> 00:07:11,240 我认为这是美国公司 195 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:12,389 正确 196 00:07:12,790 --> 00:07:13,509 他们确实 197 00:07:13,509 --> 00:07:16,290 但也收购了加拿大资产 198 00:07:16,290 --> 00:07:19,300 并收购了加拿大公司通过合并 199 00:07:19,300 --> 00:07:21,560 现在已实现双地上市 200 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:23,459 但起源于美国 201 00:07:23,459 --> 00:07:26,180 所以，公正且如此 202 00:07:26,180 --> 00:07:28,720 这就是我的方式 203 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:31,800 我会使用你的信息 204 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:32,740 好的 205 00:07:32,740 --> 00:07:34,560 你看好铀矿吗 206 00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:35,699 不管什么原因 207 00:07:35,699 --> 00:07:37,879 你可以给我四个或五个不同理由 208 00:07:37,879 --> 00:07:39,019 为什么你这么优秀 209 00:07:39,019 --> 00:07:39,860 也许你看空 210 00:07:39,860 --> 00:07:40,819 随便吧 211 00:07:40,819 --> 00:07:42,920 作为期权交易者 212 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:44,300 我在这里该怎么做 213 00:07:44,300 --> 00:07:44,839 嗯 214 00:07:44,839 --> 00:07:46,300 你身上最棒的地方 215 00:07:46,300 --> 00:07:47,779 你请便 216 00:07:47,779 --> 00:07:51,879 你e c这是十三十三十六美分股票吗 217 00:07:51,879 --> 00:07:56,800 这意味着裸卖空看跌期权的资本要求相对较低 218 00:07:56,800 --> 00:07:59,000 我不太喜欢到十六点 219 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:00,850 只做十六天 220 00:08:00,850 --> 00:08:02,870 嗯周线期权 221 00:08:02,870 --> 00:08:03,410 是的 222 00:08:03,410 --> 00:08:04,889 我可能选择周线期权 223 00:08:04,889 --> 00:08:06,350 我只需看看这个期权 224 00:08:06,350 --> 00:08:07,810 十二月看跌期权 225 00:08:08,329 --> 00:08:11,230 有70%概率到期无价值 226 00:08:11,230 --> 00:08:11,569 假设 227 00:08:11,569 --> 00:08:14,860 如果卖出能否以四美分四美分卖出 228 00:08:16,300 --> 00:08:22,408 这笔交易的指标需约450美元资本 229 00:08:22,408 --> 00:08:23,848 最大收益四美分四美分 230 00:08:23,848 --> 00:08:25,449 如果我能赚一半利润 231 00:08:25,449 --> 00:08:30,509 有83%概率在两天三日内赚取两美元 232 00:08:30,509 --> 00:08:32,409 产生189美元资本收益 233 00:08:32,409 --> 00:08:33,309 我喜欢这笔交易 234 00:08:33,309 --> 00:08:34,850 我要下单试试 235 00:08:34,850 --> 00:08:36,350 提交菲利 236 00:08:36,350 --> 00:08:38,309 成交后再次操作 237 00:08:38,309 --> 00:08:40,450 我不保证这些交易 238 00:08:40,450 --> 00:08:42,129 作为交易者洛博 239 00:08:42,129 --> 00:08:43,009 我持有这些 240 00:08:43,009 --> 00:08:44,669 所有决策由我自行决定 241 00:08:44,669 --> 00:08:46,279 如果成功就太好了 242 00:08:46,279 --> 00:08:47,120 我会记你一功 243 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:47,639 如果失败 244 00:08:47,639 --> 00:08:48,519 我会自责 245 00:08:48,519 --> 00:08:51,639 故事到这里如何 246 00:08:51,639 --> 00:08:52,318 不过 247 00:08:53,239 --> 00:08:56,318 我全心支持独立投机者 248 00:08:56,318 --> 00:08:57,700 所以 249 00:08:57,700 --> 00:09:00,100 这就是乐趣所在 250 00:09:00,100 --> 00:09:02,059 所以还有其他 251 00:09:02,059 --> 00:09:02,500 你的 252 00:09:02,500 --> 00:09:04,379 你对黄金怎么看 253 00:09:04,889 --> 00:09:07,990 我认为短期内黄金可能会出现更多修正和盘整 254 00:09:07,990 --> 00:09:08,730 在短期内 255 00:09:08,730 --> 00:09:10,490 对于你的时间框架 256 00:09:10,490 --> 00:09:12,250 你知道这场战争 257 00:09:12,250 --> 00:09:13,750 这太愚蠢了 258 00:09:13,750 --> 00:09:14,450 就像鲍里斯 259 00:09:14,450 --> 00:09:14,789 一个安全 260 00:09:14,789 --> 00:09:15,110 嘿 261 00:09:15,110 --> 00:09:15,429 抱歉 262 00:09:15,429 --> 00:09:16,649 黄金是避险资产 263 00:09:16,649 --> 00:09:17,389 这一点没错 264 00:09:17,389 --> 00:09:19,970 你知道几个世纪以来无可争议 265 00:09:19,970 --> 00:09:21,690 而我们正在战争中持有黄金 266 00:09:21,690 --> 00:09:25,049 为什么呢 这场战争推高了油价 267 00:09:25,049 --> 00:09:26,970 这被视为通胀因素 268 00:09:26,970 --> 00:09:29,129 可能导致美联储加息 269 00:09:29,129 --> 00:09:30,350 而黄金不付利息 270 00:09:30,350 --> 00:09:31,370 因此卖出黄金 271 00:09:31,370 --> 00:09:34,779 我的意思是整个后疫情时代 272 00:09:34,779 --> 00:09:36,820 彻底打破了这种思维谬误 273 00:09:36,820 --> 00:09:39,460 但这种观念仍深植于许多交易者 274 00:09:39,460 --> 00:09:42,759 我们看到市场对战争的错误反应 275 00:09:42,759 --> 00:09:43,500 而且你知道 276 00:09:43,500 --> 00:09:44,019 正如他们所说 277 00:09:44,019 --> 00:09:44,600 市场可以保持非理性 278 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:46,080 比你能维持生存更久 279 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:47,779 所以你知道我可以看着这一切抓狂并说 280 00:09:47,779 --> 00:09:51,590 市场错了 281 00:09:51,590 --> 00:09:53,110 作为长期持有多头 282 00:09:53,350 --> 00:09:55,470 那么这就是机会 如果我正确而市场错误 283 00:09:55,470 --> 00:09:58,129 作为长期持有者 284 00:09:58,129 --> 00:09:59,990 这对交易者来说是机会 285 00:09:59,990 --> 00:10:01,009 我会考虑 286 00:10:01,009 --> 00:10:03,950 这场战争很快结束的概率有多大 287 00:10:03,950 --> 00:10:05,450 如果局势升级 288 00:10:05,450 --> 00:10:07,090 金价可能下跌 289 00:10:07,090 --> 00:10:09,720 可以尝试做空策略 290 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:13,659 但任何听从我建议的人都面临极高风险 291 00:10:13,659 --> 00:10:15,000 我并没有推荐这样做 292 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:16,330 我只是说可以 293 00:10:16,330 --> 00:10:18,309 但这非常不寻常 294 00:10:18,309 --> 00:10:19,090 我们所说的风险 295 00:10:19,090 --> 00:10:20,210 在采访开头提到 296 00:10:20,210 --> 00:10:23,480 一条推特可能随时改变这一切 297 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:24,320 当我们结束时 298 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:26,730 可能会发现他发推说战争结束 299 00:10:27,090 --> 00:10:30,409 正是如此 这正是 300 00:10:30,409 --> 00:10:31,570 嗯 gd 301 00:10:31,570 --> 00:10:32,129 ETF 302 00:10:32,129 --> 00:10:32,610 这些追踪标的 303 00:10:32,610 --> 00:10:33,190 黄金 304 00:10:33,190 --> 00:10:34,149 嗯，再说一次 305 00:10:34,149 --> 00:10:35,009 我们正在讨论 306 00:10:35,009 --> 00:10:35,389 你知道的 307 00:10:35,389 --> 00:10:36,129 汞（Hg） 308 00:10:36,129 --> 00:10:36,669 呃 309 00:10:36,669 --> 00:10:37,669 这些都是期货期权 310 00:10:37,669 --> 00:10:39,490 因此你需要期货账户才能操作 311 00:10:39,490 --> 00:10:39,960 你可以 312 00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:41,559 你可以开设期货账户 313 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:43,559 可以与股票同步交易 314 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:45,179 以及你的股票期权 315 00:10:45,179 --> 00:10:46,740 这里还有指数期权 316 00:10:46,740 --> 00:10:49,500 黄金的波动率相对较低 317 00:10:49,500 --> 00:10:50,519 熊市价差 318 00:10:50,519 --> 00:10:52,620 不在每周三十天内 319 00:10:52,620 --> 00:10:54,529 但如果看五十天期 320 00:10:54,529 --> 00:10:59,889 对于四百美元的产品来说价差较紧 321 00:10:59,889 --> 00:11:00,610 嗯 322 00:11:00,610 --> 00:11:01,509 这就是我的意思 323 00:11:01,509 --> 00:11:01,730 是 324 00:11:01,730 --> 00:11:02,009 这个是 325 00:11:02,009 --> 00:11:04,889 这些产品的价格会上涨 326 00:11:04,889 --> 00:11:05,669 让我们看看 327 00:11:05,669 --> 00:11:06,129 嗯 328 00:11:06,129 --> 00:11:06,929 你觉得呢 329 00:11:06,929 --> 00:11:07,529 嗯 330 00:11:07,529 --> 00:11:08,330 看空 331 00:11:08,330 --> 00:11:09,529 未来五十天内 332 00:11:09,529 --> 00:11:11,389 我不确定 333 00:11:12,230 --> 00:11:14,029 四月十七日正中间 334 00:11:14,029 --> 00:11:15,210 看看波动率曲面情况 335 00:11:15,210 --> 00:11:15,629 嗯 336 00:11:15,629 --> 00:11:17,429 四月十五日左右 337 00:11:17,429 --> 00:11:19,299 但我要说五十天后我会 338 00:11:19,299 --> 00:11:20,340 我会非常惊讶 339 00:11:20,340 --> 00:11:21,779 如果那时战争还没结束 340 00:11:21,779 --> 00:11:24,320 这种看法并未改变 341 00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:25,700 不会感到意外 342 00:11:25,700 --> 00:11:26,759 如果还没结束 343 00:11:27,879 --> 00:11:30,179 显然特朗普想退出 344 00:11:30,179 --> 00:11:32,480 比如如果陷入泥潭继续 345 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:37,039 这违背了关键竞选承诺，时间越长 346 00:11:37,039 --> 00:11:38,759 我越觉得他想退出，再说一遍 347 00:11:38,759 --> 00:11:40,519 我并非评判战争或立场 348 00:11:40,519 --> 00:11:42,279 我只是分析市场 349 00:11:42,279 --> 00:11:45,169 而我会感到意外 350 00:11:45,169 --> 00:11:45,490 现在 351 00:11:45,490 --> 00:11:45,629 现在 352 00:11:45,629 --> 00:11:46,690 另一方获得投票权 353 00:11:46,690 --> 00:11:48,149 比如特朗普说我们赢了 354 00:11:48,149 --> 00:11:50,110 他回家后他们保留原装衣物 355 00:11:50,110 --> 00:11:51,190 那里确实有问题 356 00:11:51,190 --> 00:11:53,500 我明白这一点，所以我不做预测 357 00:11:53,500 --> 00:11:55,879 但我要说的是我在观察局势 358 00:11:55,879 --> 00:11:58,379 美国显然想要退出 359 00:11:58,379 --> 00:12:00,039 或尽快退出 360 00:12:00,039 --> 00:12:02,000 五十天足够时间 361 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:05,429 这样才能充分展开 362 00:12:05,429 --> 00:12:06,269 就像 363 00:12:06,269 --> 00:12:06,789 我说过 364 00:12:06,789 --> 00:12:07,309 洛沃 365 00:12:07,309 --> 00:12:08,570 我不必对此负责 366 00:12:08,570 --> 00:12:11,809 期权隐含波动率偏向看涨 367 00:12:11,809 --> 00:12:13,039 换句话说 368 00:12:13,039 --> 00:12:14,940 正如我之前描述的 369 00:12:14,940 --> 00:12:18,519 这并不意味着GD会上涨 370 00:12:18,519 --> 00:12:23,688 这只是市场预期上行风险 371 00:12:23,688 --> 00:12:25,989 市场对上行走势感到担忧 372 00:12:25,989 --> 00:12:26,840 GD 373 00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:30,049 结合你的观点 374 00:12:30,049 --> 00:12:32,850 你补充的看涨偏见看法 375 00:12:32,850 --> 00:12:34,730 我要卖出四四或五档看跌期权 376 00:12:34,730 --> 00:12:35,730 我只是看看 377 00:12:35,730 --> 00:12:36,929 看看效果如何 378 00:12:36,929 --> 00:12:39,409 看看能否成交菲利普 379 00:12:39,409 --> 00:12:40,009 成交一笔 380 00:12:40,009 --> 00:12:40,899 成交两笔 381 00:12:40,899 --> 00:12:42,259 好的 382 00:12:42,259 --> 00:12:42,879 嗯 383 00:12:42,879 --> 00:12:44,659 我不想聊太久 384 00:12:44,659 --> 00:12:45,919 我知道你很忙 385 00:12:45,919 --> 00:12:46,580 嗯 386 00:12:46,580 --> 00:12:54,070 还有最后想对观众说的金属交易要点吗 387 00:12:54,070 --> 00:12:55,830 你可能关注的内容 388 00:12:55,830 --> 00:12:56,759 嗯 389 00:12:56,759 --> 00:12:57,600 你知道的 390 00:12:57,600 --> 00:12:58,460 你看到什么 391 00:12:58,460 --> 00:12:59,039 全力出击 392 00:12:59,039 --> 00:13:00,059 这是多头还是空头 393 00:13:00,059 --> 00:13:02,659 我认为你是长期多头 394 00:13:02,659 --> 00:13:03,250 是的 395 00:13:03,250 --> 00:13:04,269 几个关键点 396 00:13:04,269 --> 00:13:05,230 首先我们 397 00:13:05,230 --> 00:13:07,370 我们讨论战争或宏观形势 398 00:13:07,370 --> 00:13:08,929 这些不能忽视 399 00:13:08,929 --> 00:13:10,509 必须关注原因 400 00:13:10,509 --> 00:13:11,169 事情发生的原因 401 00:13:11,169 --> 00:13:14,379 关于铜的前景原因 402 00:13:14,379 --> 00:13:17,690 但宏观经济无法预知下一步发展 403 00:13:17,690 --> 00:13:19,169 我不仅仅指推特内容 404 00:13:19,169 --> 00:13:20,490 它可以是任何可能的事 405 00:13:20,490 --> 00:13:20,850 你知道的 406 00:13:20,850 --> 00:13:22,529 市场波动很正常 407 00:13:22,529 --> 00:13:24,250 可能是公司特定因素 408 00:13:24,250 --> 00:13:26,309 也可能是商品特定因素 409 00:13:26,309 --> 00:13:29,690 拥有宏观理论很有帮助 410 00:13:29,690 --> 00:13:31,149 我们未来需要更多铜 411 00:13:31,149 --> 00:13:32,250 随着世界电气化发展 412 00:13:32,250 --> 00:13:34,059 无论怎样这都很重要 413 00:13:34,059 --> 00:13:37,120 这能增强你下注的信心 414 00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:39,019 但不要自欺欺人 415 00:13:39,019 --> 00:13:41,700 这意味着它明天或本周必须上涨 416 00:13:41,700 --> 00:13:42,320 你明白的 417 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:44,250 你知道短期风险 418 00:13:44,250 --> 00:13:44,649 你知道的 419 00:13:44,649 --> 00:13:49,049 或许可以聘请技术分析师解读图表 420 00:13:49,049 --> 00:13:50,649 或者类似方法 421 00:13:50,970 --> 00:13:51,830 另一点 422 00:13:51,830 --> 00:13:53,750 回到宏观层面 423 00:13:53,750 --> 00:13:56,500 大局观 424 00:13:56,500 --> 00:13:58,460 一切向前看 425 00:13:58,460 --> 00:13:59,559 呈现通胀迹象 426 00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:01,100 这不仅因战争 427 00:14:01,100 --> 00:14:01,879 还有支出增加 428 00:14:01,879 --> 00:14:03,889 我们之前提到的 429 00:14:03,889 --> 00:14:07,570 欧洲重新军事化的动向 430 00:14:07,570 --> 00:14:10,320 涉及数万亿美元投入 431 00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:10,820 你知道的 432 00:14:10,820 --> 00:14:12,360 中国在刺激经济 433 00:14:13,759 --> 00:14:15,860 全球各地都在发生 434 00:14:15,860 --> 00:14:17,259 我们看到的一切 435 00:14:17,259 --> 00:14:19,720 都指向未来通胀上升 436 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:20,818 这将 437 00:14:20,818 --> 00:14:21,519 我认为 438 00:14:21,519 --> 00:14:23,979 对未来数年投资有影响 439 00:14:23,979 --> 00:14:24,259 而且 440 00:14:24,259 --> 00:14:24,639 当然 441 00:14:24,639 --> 00:14:25,099 你知道的 442 00:14:25,099 --> 00:14:26,219 也许我在推销自己的观点 443 00:14:26,219 --> 00:14:28,500 但大宗商品必然受影响 444 00:14:28,500 --> 00:14:33,460 尤其是供应受限的品种如铜和铀
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