【NaNa说美股】20260522新卖铲人能复制英伟达奇迹吗？

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说

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美股今天是5月22号

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周五美股三大股指平淡收市

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随后呢就要开启三天的长周末

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下周15月25号阵亡降世纪念日

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美股休市

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下周二恢复交易

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债券市场今天下午两点就提前收市了

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每天美股开盘之前哈都是上演老节目

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各路消息人士呢精准范利好

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今天又有不知道哪一位知情人是向路透社透露

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一支卡塔尔谈判代表团在与美国协调下

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抵达伊朗首都德黑兰

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协助促成美伊协议

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每次大老远的跑巴基斯坦太费劲了

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所以这个美国就只是小弟过去谈

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顺便也可以实地观察一下宜兰内部现在的情况

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华尔街日报报道称

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中间调解人如今是争分夺秒达成协议

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以避免美国和以色列即将发动的袭击

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美姨这个破事吧

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可以拖着反复的来炒哈

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范利好呢

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美股就上涨

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但是范利空不跌

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简直完美啊

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所以美股今天嗯上涨

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在宣誓仪式上

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川普表示

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我舍将会限制美联储的前瞻性指引

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做法就是以后啊

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不提前对市场透露利率决策了哈

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直接开会宣布降息或者加息就完事了

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以后呢美联储就要变成一个哑巴部门

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不光明正大放风了

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其实我觉得这样也挺好

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以前你看老听那些嗯美联储官员这个出来说话

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那个出来说话也挺烦的哈

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以后美股市场唯一的导航就是看川普发推了嗯

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这个会导致短期不确定性增加

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加剧股市的波动

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就是容易暴涨暴跌

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但是中长期的影响其实没有差

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今天报复性倒戈了

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一改之前大哥拍的那一场

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范英称

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近期劳动力通胀数据

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改变了他对利率的基本立场

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下一步行动降息和加息

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五五开

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美债收益率上涨可能有助于抑制美国通胀

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他的讲话迅速将市场压住

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推向美联储加息的方向

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实现基本收益率呢一度抹去日内跌幅转涨

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也导致美股股指当时短线跳水

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不过后面收益率又掉下去了

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推动了美股的回升

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川普的TAO之手还是很厉害的哈

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一直把这收益率往下拉呃

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也可以说那个贝森特很厉害

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标普500指数今天日内再次上攻

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测试7500点关卡

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没能够冲过去

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收在7500下方底下

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成交量减少

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因为进入长周末前

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流动性下降

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下个周一晚间重新开盘

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将要受到密切关注

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如果中东局势

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在这个长周末期间出现了新的变化

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无论是达成协议还是掀桌子

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期货市场恢复交易的时候

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可能会出现剧烈波动

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本周呢累涨了0.88%

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在人工智能

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航空航天以及其他新兴科技热潮持续推动之下

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指数周K实现了八连阳

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为2023年12月以来最长的周线连涨记录

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Q1财报季已接近尾声了哈

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据机构数据

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在标普500指数成分股中

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已经有超过90%的公司发布了业绩

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一季度整体盈利预计同比增长

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超过28%

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数字非常的惊人哈

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本轮美股上涨的重要支撑

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就是这个超预期的企业盈利

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市场

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对于未来几个季度的盈利和经济增长的

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预期呢也是相当的高

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而这些预期已经反映在当前价格中

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财报季提供的利好正在消退

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接下来就要看宏观数据与美联储利率路径了

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一旦宏观数据显示通胀更加顽固

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或者利率路径进一步偏阴

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那每股估值可能面临重新审视

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美银牛熊指标本周升到了八

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触发了反向卖出信号

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这是该指标自2002年以来

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第17次发出卖出信号

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历史数据显示

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卖出信号触发之后

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全球股市短期面临回调压力

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此后两到三个月内

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全球股市平均跌幅为2%到3%呃

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不是百试百灵哈

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只是一个几率问题

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其他个股方面

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wash岳父家的集团雅诗兰黛股价今天大涨

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消息面上

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公司终止了和西班牙美妆集团布置的合并谈判

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此前双方计划合并打造一家高端美妆巨头呃

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与这个行业领头羊欧莱雅展开竞争

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但是华尔街机构担心

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该交易可能会增加整合风险

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加剧公司资产负债表的压力

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并且分散这个管理层

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对长达数月的扭亏为盈计划的注意力

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因此呢投资者对这项潜在交易的种子表示欢迎

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表面上看今天股价上涨是因为这个好消息了

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但是我觉得主要原因还是因为豪门女婿沃舍

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当了美国的财神爷哈

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华尔街的掌舵手

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所以机构们怎么也要卖这个面子

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那抬一抬岳父家的集团的股票

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算不了什么哈

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计算机硬件概念呢普涨

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联想营收超预期

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带动PC厂商股价上涨

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戴尔科技今天涨超16.8%

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创历史新高

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富国银行

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分析师将该股的目标价从180美元

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一口气上调到了270美元

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美国折扣零售巨头罗斯百货股价季后上涨

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Q1销售额同比增长21%

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达到60亿美元

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每股收益同比增长37%

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达到2.02美元

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都好于市场预期

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公司还上调了2026全年业绩指引

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现在预计全年可比销售额

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增长6%到7%

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此前的预测呢为增长3%到4%

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预计全年每股收益在7.5到

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7.74美元之间

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也高于此前预测的7.02到7.36美元

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这些折扣零售商呢赢得了资金的青睐

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罗斯百货股价走势也非常的猛哈

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自2025年7月以来

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股价连续11个月上涨

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月线走势11连阳啊

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今年迄今累涨了29%

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远超过零售一哥沃尔玛同期8%的涨幅

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量子计算概念股今天也延续了展示

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QBTS股价又续涨了14.2%嗯

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下周如果出现回落的话哈

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可以再找机会上车

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IBM股价在年线附近遇阻回落

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回吐了日内涨幅

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公司获得10亿美元政府补贴

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IBM自己呢等额配套10亿美元自有资金

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共同在纽约州打造安德森工厂

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这座工厂将会成为美国首家专注生产

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300mm规格量子芯片的专业晶圆厂

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这笔合作呢标志着IBM量子业务战略迎来转型

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从长期研发项目升级为国家级的核心制造平台

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嗯华尔街多数分析师都看好这个利好

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认为这个事件对IBM形成实质性的利好哈

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也印证市场对它的量子发展路线的认可

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商用容错量子架构预计2029年落地

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将会颠覆深一行

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天与加密安全领域蕴藏着数千亿商机

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但是转型期

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传统硬件承压工厂建设仍处于起步阶段

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项目变现周期漫长

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当前市值大约2385亿美元

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市盈率TTM约22.4倍

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估值呢要显著高于科技同行的历史中位数

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呃显示机构已经提前定价了IBM未来增长

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但是也保留了一定的安全边际

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前期这个股票整体面临抛售压力

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昨天大涨之后

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股价收复了50日均线

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暂时仍处于年线的下方

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短期呢处于高波动蓄势阶段

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华尔街对IBM

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2026年底的平均目标价为321美元

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最高目标价334美元

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在2030年远期目标上呢存在较大的分歧

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如果嗯这个公司面临传统业务萎缩等执行摩擦

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就执行出现风险的话

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保守预测底价为130美元

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平均大约171美元

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这是最差的情况哈

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但是如果它的量子代工模式

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成功的商业化规模扩张呢

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牛市情景下

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我们华尔街给予IBM长期目标价

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可以达到484美元革新

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这次拿到美国政府3.75亿美元的奖励

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仅次于IBM的10亿美元

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不是为了让他去研发好玩的量子算法

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而是希望美国本土能够拥有一个嗯

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可以服务整个量子行业的制造平台

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量子芯片通常必须在接近绝对零度

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就是极寒的环境下

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运星普通芯片到了这种超低温环境

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很多都运行不了

212
00:09:30,620 --> 00:09:32,700
而革新呢这些年一直在研发

213
00:09:32,700 --> 00:09:37,009
能够在极寒环境下工作的低温控制电子技术

214
00:09:37,009 --> 00:09:39,929
这是他被美国政府看中的原因之一

215
00:09:39,929 --> 00:09:41,889
现在包括谷歌量子

216
00:09:41,889 --> 00:09:42,490
微软

217
00:09:42,490 --> 00:09:46,940
英伟达等量子公司哈都已经和革新展开了合作

218
00:09:46,940 --> 00:09:50,000
在抢夺量子主导权的战争里

219
00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:53,100
无论未来超导光子还是离子井

220
00:09:53,100 --> 00:09:55,769
哪条技术路线最终胜出

221
00:09:55,769 --> 00:09:59,149
这些量子公司都需要成熟的制造

222
00:09:59,149 --> 00:10:01,759
封装和低温电子支持

223
00:10:01,759 --> 00:10:04,240
很多量子小公司根本就没有能力

224
00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:05,919
自己去建晶圆厂

225
00:10:05,919 --> 00:10:06,840
换句话说呢

226
00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:10,419
革新现在更像是在做整个量子行业的

227
00:10:10,419 --> 00:10:11,500
基础设施哈

228
00:10:11,500 --> 00:10:13,860
量子公司未来谁能真正成功

229
00:10:13,860 --> 00:10:15,179
现在还很难说

230
00:10:15,179 --> 00:10:19,700
但是负责提供底层制造和工具的平台公司

231
00:10:19,700 --> 00:10:22,110
反而可能成为长期的受益者

232
00:10:22,110 --> 00:10:24,990
所以市场现在开始把革新看成

233
00:10:24,990 --> 00:10:26,850
量子赛道里的卖惨人

234
00:10:26,850 --> 00:10:27,570
角色

235
00:10:27,570 --> 00:10:31,240
相当于台积电和阿斯麦的结合体

236
00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:33,259
不过也要注意量子计算

237
00:10:33,259 --> 00:10:35,980
目前呢还处于非常早期的阶段

238
00:10:35,980 --> 00:10:40,379
离真正大规模商业化还有很长很远的距离哈

239
00:10:40,379 --> 00:10:42,500
因此即便行情火热

240
00:10:42,500 --> 00:10:45,120
也不能够立即将这个革新视作

241
00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:47,049
高增长的热门个股

242
00:10:47,049 --> 00:10:52,110
阶段性的炒作仍取决于政策利好与市场情绪

243
00:10:52,110 --> 00:10:53,750
而并非它的基本面

244
00:10:53,750 --> 00:10:55,750
今天股价跳空高开之后

245
00:10:55,750 --> 00:10:58,549
收出带有铲铲三影线的倒锤子线呢

246
00:10:58,549 --> 00:10:59,730
需要密切关注

247
00:10:59,730 --> 00:11:01,789
可能是股价涨太快了

248
00:11:01,789 --> 00:11:06,078
所以部分短线资金在这个长周末前获利了结

249
00:11:06,078 --> 00:11:10,370
嗯下周看他能不能够再拉起来哈

250
00:11:10,370 --> 00:11:11,529
呃拉不起来的话

251
00:11:11,529 --> 00:11:12,889
也许是个短期顶部

252
00:11:12,889 --> 00:11:14,090
但是问题不大

253
00:11:14,090 --> 00:11:15,830
可能还会炒好几波

254
00:11:15,830 --> 00:11:19,269
美国政府呢正在提前布局量子产业链

255
00:11:19,269 --> 00:11:22,230
而革新正在被推向这个产业链里

256
00:11:22,230 --> 00:11:23,690
催产关键的位置

257
00:11:23,690 --> 00:11:26,609
就算是不幸被套住了嗯

258
00:11:26,609 --> 00:11:27,749
耐心一点也可以

259
00:11:27,749 --> 00:11:29,009
很快就会解套

260
00:11:29,009 --> 00:11:30,950
太空概念走势分化

261
00:11:30,950 --> 00:11:32,789
ok lab今年涨超8%

262
00:11:32,789 --> 00:11:36,039
公司获得了一份9000万美元的合同

263
00:11:36,039 --> 00:11:39,679
为美国太空军建造搭载空间态势

264
00:11:39,679 --> 00:11:42,710
感知载荷的地球静止轨道卫星

265
00:11:42,710 --> 00:11:44,250
这个合同呢标志着

266
00:11:44,250 --> 00:11:48,599
ok lab首个面向地球静止轨道的卫星生产项目

267
00:11:48,599 --> 00:11:51,019
中概板块今天炸锅了哈

268
00:11:51,019 --> 00:11:56,068
原因是中国证监会深夜扔出了一颗深水炸弹

269
00:11:56,068 --> 00:11:58,908
就禁止一切境外金融机构

270
00:11:58,908 --> 00:12:01,828
为内地居民提供跨境业务服务

271
00:12:01,828 --> 00:12:05,299
大白话说就是不许国内的人炒美股了哈

272
00:12:05,299 --> 00:12:07,019
早在2022年的时候呢

273
00:12:07,019 --> 00:12:08,279
就已经出了政策

274
00:12:08,279 --> 00:12:11,409
不准跨境券商开发内地新用户

275
00:12:11,409 --> 00:12:13,850
但是存留用户还可以保留

276
00:12:13,850 --> 00:12:15,110
现在新的政策出来

277
00:12:15,110 --> 00:12:17,850
就存量用户也都要清退掉

278
00:12:17,850 --> 00:12:20,720
给已有账户两年的缓冲期

279
00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:22,399
只准卖不准买

280
00:12:22,399 --> 00:12:26,320
两年到期之后呢就必须转仓或者是全卖掉

281
00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:27,500
可能是美股

282
00:12:27,500 --> 00:12:29,799
韩股过去几个月涨的实在太猛了

283
00:12:29,799 --> 00:12:32,120
太多的人想去买美股

284
00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:33,019
买韩股

285
00:12:33,019 --> 00:12:34,779
导致钱流出太多

286
00:12:34,779 --> 00:12:36,460
没人上大A的车了

287
00:12:36,460 --> 00:12:38,200
所以就来点大动作

288
00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:39,220
赶紧杀一杀

289
00:12:39,220 --> 00:12:43,039
这个势头都让你们成为美股躺平价值投资者了

290
00:12:43,039 --> 00:12:46,328
那国内的金融消费者群体数量就不够了呀

291
00:12:46,328 --> 00:12:48,328
今年国内雪球啊

292
00:12:48,328 --> 00:12:49,089
小红书啊

293
00:12:49,089 --> 00:12:50,849
皮奶上门哀嚎一片呐

294
00:12:50,849 --> 00:12:52,849
对于那些想炒美股的人来说

295
00:12:52,849 --> 00:12:54,960
真的是天都塌老虎

296
00:12:58,599 --> 00:13:02,678
昨天就有人提前埋伏了3万多张单腿做空

297
00:13:02,678 --> 00:13:04,818
附图的期权嗯

298
00:13:09,049 --> 00:13:10,710
就和那个帖主说的一样

299
00:13:10,710 --> 00:13:12,929
这少爷想赚点零花钱嘛

300
00:13:12,929 --> 00:13:13,659
小意思

301
00:13:13,659 --> 00:13:17,179
证监会不仅要没收这些跨境券商

302
00:13:17,179 --> 00:13:21,100
过去4年境内外相关主体全部违法所得

303
00:13:21,100 --> 00:13:24,600
就是呃那些存量客户们的手续费哈

304
00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:26,679
而且呢还要罚款嗯

305
00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:27,600
老虎证券

306
00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:31,799
相关子公司被除以3.08亿亿元的行政罚款

307
00:13:31,799 --> 00:13:32,620
并且没收

308
00:13:32,620 --> 00:13:36,370
合计约人民币1.03亿元的违法所得

309
00:13:36,370 --> 00:13:38,730
附图呢被处以没收和罚款

310
00:13:38,730 --> 00:13:41,009
总额约人民币18.5亿元

311
00:13:41,009 --> 00:13:43,090
此外还计划对公司创始人

312
00:13:43,090 --> 00:13:45,620
以CEO李华先生本人罚款

313
00:13:45,620 --> 00:13:47,769
以人民币125万元

314
00:13:47,769 --> 00:13:51,409
这些券商也纷纷发布声明安抚投资者

315
00:13:51,409 --> 00:13:53,809
因为大家都蛮心欢的呃

316
00:13:53,809 --> 00:13:54,629
券商们称

317
00:13:54,629 --> 00:13:58,129
他们的中国内地用户占比已经非常低了

318
00:13:58,129 --> 00:14:00,720
海外用户这些年持续增长

319
00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:04,419
附图的内地存量客户数量只占13%

320
00:14:04,419 --> 00:14:07,799
老虎的内地用户资金占比的只占10%

321
00:14:07,799 --> 00:14:08,679
这几年哈

322
00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:09,840
这些跨境券商

323
00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:13,039
其实对这种政策风险也是有所准备

324
00:14:13,039 --> 00:14:16,179
所以一直大力拼命的开发海海外市场

325
00:14:16,179 --> 00:14:17,340
尤其是北美市场

326
00:14:17,340 --> 00:14:18,220
新用户们

327
00:14:18,220 --> 00:14:22,019
真正影响最大的还是那些要被清退掉的

328
00:14:22,019 --> 00:14:23,649
中国内地用户们哈

329
00:14:23,649 --> 00:14:25,190
有句玩笑话说呀

330
00:14:25,190 --> 00:14:27,049
当炒股能够赚钱的时候

331
00:14:27,049 --> 00:14:29,620
散户连开户的资格都没有

332
00:14:29,620 --> 00:14:31,759
我想不到这句玩笑话成真了

333
00:14:31,759 --> 00:14:35,769
难怪恒生科技昨天莫名其妙放量大跌

334
00:14:35,769 --> 00:14:39,210
这明显是有人提前得到分身跑路了嘛

335
00:14:39,210 --> 00:14:41,450
两周前我才刚刚劝港股

336
00:14:41,450 --> 00:14:43,080
股民们回头是岸

337
00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:44,759
及早投奔美股

338
00:14:44,759 --> 00:14:47,000
如今都变成港股难民了

339
00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:50,960
哈大A那边主力的50米大刀位都已经磨好了

340
00:14:50,960 --> 00:14:55,370
准备迎接第一批被清退回流的中概难民们

341
00:14:55,370 --> 00:14:58,110
哦说错了是金融消费者们

342
00:14:58,110 --> 00:15:02,389
以后内地普通人想开美股账户只会是越来越难

343
00:15:02,389 --> 00:15:04,629
这个路啊都给你一条条的分掉

344
00:15:04,629 --> 00:15:08,740
所以有钱或者有能力的还是得及早做好准备

345
00:15:08,740 --> 00:15:11,139
鸡蛋不能够放在同一个篮子里行

346
00:15:11,139 --> 00:15:12,879
今天我们就说到这里

347
00:15:12,879 --> 00:15:14,639
那祝大家这个常周末愉快

348
00:15:14,639 --> 00:15:15,980
我们下次见拜拜

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