BV1nZwEzVEuY · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:01,860 --> 00:00:02,359 你好 2 00:00:02,359 --> 00:00:03,680 我是阿尔布鲁克斯 3 00:00:03,680 --> 00:00:05,500 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程 4 00:00:05,500 --> 00:00:07,200 这是通道的第六节课 5 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:09,500 也是最后一节课 6 00:00:13,820 --> 00:00:17,300 这个视频包含许多小章节 7 00:00:17,570 --> 00:00:20,050 我会先讲解如何使用限价单 8 00:00:20,050 --> 00:00:23,449 在通道的上下沿高抛低吸 9 00:00:25,399 --> 00:00:30,039 然后我会讲解突破是如何开启趋势的 10 00:00:30,620 --> 00:00:34,420 接着我会讲解反转和突破的失败 11 00:00:35,689 --> 00:00:39,170 还会讲到宽通道和震荡区间 12 00:00:39,310 --> 00:00:41,869 如果你无法判断市场到底是处于 13 00:00:41,869 --> 00:00:43,649 宽通道还是震荡区间 14 00:00:43,649 --> 00:00:44,878 没有关系 15 00:00:44,878 --> 00:00:46,558 交易的方法是一样的 16 00:00:46,558 --> 00:00:47,219 高抛低吸 17 00:00:47,219 --> 00:00:49,399 包头皮赚快钱 18 00:00:49,869 --> 00:00:51,469 最后我会强调 19 00:00:51,469 --> 00:00:55,710 每个震荡区间都同时具有上涨趋势和下降趋势 20 00:00:55,710 --> 00:00:57,509 早期的特征 21 00:01:03,119 --> 00:01:04,000 大阴线 22 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:06,359 然后这里第二次向下反转 23 00:01:06,359 --> 00:01:09,420 交易者会在上沿画一条下降趋势线 24 00:01:09,420 --> 00:01:12,950 并观察市场接近这条线时的反应 25 00:01:12,950 --> 00:01:14,290 一次向上反转 26 00:01:14,290 --> 00:01:15,569 第二次向上反转 27 00:01:15,569 --> 00:01:17,310 交易者会画一条线 28 00:01:17,310 --> 00:01:21,469 然后观察市场接近通道下延时的反应 29 00:01:23,359 --> 00:01:24,540 向下反转 30 00:01:24,540 --> 00:01:26,579 然后第二次向下反转 31 00:01:26,579 --> 00:01:32,079 这是小双顶市场在接近趋势线的地方向下反转 32 00:01:32,079 --> 00:01:34,780 上涨之后再次向下反转 33 00:01:34,780 --> 00:01:37,079 所以这是一个小双顶市场 34 00:01:37,079 --> 00:01:38,420 在这根K线上涨下跌 35 00:01:38,420 --> 00:01:40,260 然后在这一根K线上涨下跌 36 00:01:40,260 --> 00:01:42,180 然后在那一根K线开始下跌 37 00:01:42,180 --> 00:01:43,879 所以这是第二做空入场点 38 00:01:43,879 --> 00:01:46,448 第一入场点是在价格跌破那根K线的时候 39 00:01:46,448 --> 00:01:49,429 第二入场点是在市场跌破这根K线的时候 40 00:01:49,429 --> 00:01:51,468 交易者应该在这根阴线的低点下方 41 00:01:51,468 --> 00:01:53,040 用突破卖单开仓做空 42 00:01:53,040 --> 00:01:54,579 这根阴线的体积不错 43 00:01:54,579 --> 00:01:55,959 并且收在一半以下 44 00:01:55,959 --> 00:01:57,680 你的订单会在这里成交 45 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:00,319 就在那根K线的低点下方一个tick 46 00:02:00,319 --> 00:02:01,060 顺便说一句 47 00:02:01,060 --> 00:02:02,120 这是一个二的结构 48 00:02:02,859 --> 00:02:04,060 连续两根运线 49 00:02:04,060 --> 00:02:05,879 这根K线被那根K线包在里面 50 00:02:05,879 --> 00:02:07,019 所以是连续的运线 51 00:02:07,019 --> 00:02:08,780 这也是一个IOI的结构 52 00:02:08,780 --> 00:02:11,568 IOI内外置内置K右边是二 53 00:02:11,568 --> 00:02:13,379 这根K线是吞噬线 54 00:02:13,379 --> 00:02:15,780 这意味着市场正在决定 55 00:02:15,780 --> 00:02:18,849 是向上突破还是向下反转 56 00:02:18,849 --> 00:02:20,729 这根阴线收在低位 57 00:02:20,729 --> 00:02:24,689 而且是在通道上沿的阻力位 58 00:02:26,039 --> 00:02:29,479 因此更有可能向下突破 59 00:02:32,039 --> 00:02:34,360 空头跌破了通道下沿 60 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:36,780 但这一根K线市场反转上涨 61 00:02:36,780 --> 00:02:38,800 尝试再次向下突破 62 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:41,039 但到K线收盘时 63 00:02:41,610 --> 00:02:43,949 不是收在低位的阴线 64 00:02:43,949 --> 00:02:46,530 而是一根收在高位的阳线 65 00:02:46,530 --> 00:02:49,699 多头会在这根阳线的高点上方买入 66 00:02:49,699 --> 00:02:52,539 或者在两根K线的最高点上方一个pk挂突破 67 00:02:52,539 --> 00:02:55,860 买单预期至少测试通道上沿 68 00:03:03,180 --> 00:03:07,180 这里的背景支持反转的发生 69 00:03:07,180 --> 00:03:11,300 有经验的交易者可能也会用现价买单入场 70 00:03:11,300 --> 00:03:15,579 他们愿意逢低加仓买入更多压住反转 71 00:03:15,579 --> 00:03:17,618 他们会使用较宽的初始止损 72 00:03:18,979 --> 00:03:21,598 例如当市场在这里下跌时 73 00:03:21,598 --> 00:03:23,689 他们画出这条线 74 00:03:23,689 --> 00:03:26,229 他们知道通道的潜在下沿在这里 75 00:03:26,229 --> 00:03:29,800 所以他们会在这个区域挂一些限价买单 76 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:32,719 当市场跌破他们的限价买单时 77 00:03:32,719 --> 00:03:34,990 他们就入场做多了 78 00:03:34,990 --> 00:03:36,189 如果继续下跌 79 00:03:36,189 --> 00:03:38,069 一笔剥头皮交易的距离 80 00:03:38,069 --> 00:03:39,870 费小包头皮利润的距离 81 00:03:39,870 --> 00:03:40,750 他们会加仓 82 00:03:40,750 --> 00:03:41,729 加仓的买点 83 00:03:41,729 --> 00:03:44,550 至少需要达到一笔包头皮交易的距离 84 00:03:44,550 --> 00:03:47,509 主不管是盈利加仓还是亏损加仓 85 00:03:47,509 --> 00:03:48,229 都要隔开 86 00:03:48,229 --> 00:03:48,969 一定距离 87 00:03:48,969 --> 00:03:49,789 这样的话 88 00:03:49,789 --> 00:03:53,319 当市场反弹到你第一次入场的价格时 89 00:03:53,319 --> 00:03:56,900 加仓的部分可以赚到一笔包头皮的利润 90 00:03:56,900 --> 00:03:58,599 出示仓位打平离场 91 00:03:58,599 --> 00:03:59,900 如果背景良好 92 00:03:59,900 --> 00:04:01,519 你可以不离场 93 00:04:01,519 --> 00:04:02,438 继续持有 94 00:04:02,438 --> 00:04:05,360 等待测试通道上沿啊 95 00:04:07,900 --> 00:04:10,379 大多数趋势从突破开始 96 00:04:10,379 --> 00:04:13,979 尽管有些突破可能并不明显 97 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:17,600 向下反转 98 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:18,420 向下反转 99 00:04:18,420 --> 00:04:19,680 我可以画一条线 100 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:20,620 向上反转 101 00:04:20,620 --> 00:04:21,579 向上反转 102 00:04:21,579 --> 00:04:22,899 我可以在那里画一条线 103 00:04:22,899 --> 00:04:24,060 但市场跌破了它 104 00:04:24,060 --> 00:04:25,519 然后再次向上反转 105 00:04:25,519 --> 00:04:28,339 所以我用这条新的线替换第一条线 106 00:04:28,339 --> 00:04:29,120 这是一个通道 107 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:30,279 并且是收敛的 108 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:31,480 所以是楔形复习 109 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:32,399 三推楔形通道 110 00:04:32,399 --> 00:04:35,288 75%的概率向下跌破测试通道起点 111 00:04:35,288 --> 00:04:37,988 观察这次上涨连续的大阳线在哪里 112 00:04:37,988 --> 00:04:39,569 多头在这里有不错的阳线 113 00:04:39,569 --> 00:04:41,168 但这里的K线越来越弱 114 00:04:41,168 --> 00:04:42,579 这里也是越来越弱 115 00:04:42,579 --> 00:04:44,980 这次上涨大概率只是震荡区间中的上涨 116 00:04:44,980 --> 00:04:48,740 波段通道很可能75%被向下跌破 117 00:04:48,740 --> 00:04:51,300 然后市场会横盘 118 00:04:54,779 --> 00:04:57,860 交易者会预期这次多头突破会失败 119 00:04:57,860 --> 00:05:00,660 上涨的通道并不强势 120 00:05:01,240 --> 00:05:03,980 一些空头会画出这条线 121 00:05:03,980 --> 00:05:05,660 然后当市场上涨时 122 00:05:05,660 --> 00:05:08,819 他们会在这条线附近挂线价卖单做空 123 00:05:08,819 --> 00:05:09,939 如果继续上涨 124 00:05:09,939 --> 00:05:14,079 他们愿意在更高的位置加仓卖出更多啊 125 00:05:16,199 --> 00:05:17,579 大多数上涨趋势 126 00:05:17,579 --> 00:05:20,519 实际上大多数趋势不论上涨还是下跌 127 00:05:20,519 --> 00:05:22,439 都以失败的突破结束 128 00:05:22,439 --> 00:05:26,709 上涨趋势正常是突破通道上沿 129 00:05:26,709 --> 00:05:28,250 但上影线很明显 130 00:05:28,250 --> 00:05:29,930 并不是特别大的阳线 131 00:05:29,930 --> 00:05:33,209 看他后面的跟随阴谢 132 00:05:33,209 --> 00:05:35,449 糟糕的跟随 133 00:05:40,100 --> 00:05:42,639 背景对于空头反转是有利的 134 00:05:42,639 --> 00:05:46,509 反转呈下降趋势或至少是震荡区间 135 00:05:46,509 --> 00:05:49,870 我会在通道下沿用现价买单入场做多吗 136 00:05:49,870 --> 00:05:53,790 不会尤其是在连续三根阴线之后 137 00:05:55,129 --> 00:05:57,269 如果背景有利于空头反转 138 00:05:57,269 --> 00:05:58,668 至少是震荡区间 139 00:05:58,668 --> 00:06:01,879 不要在通道的下沿挂限价买单 140 00:06:01,879 --> 00:06:02,600 注 141 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:06,470 因为下跌的目标是通道的起点楔形顶 142 00:06:06,470 --> 00:06:08,089 这里的上涨较弱 143 00:06:08,089 --> 00:06:10,240 现在有连续三根阴线 144 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:12,959 市场很可能会正在转变为通道 145 00:06:12,959 --> 00:06:16,040 甚至是下降趋势啊 146 00:06:17,060 --> 00:06:18,500 看这里 147 00:06:18,500 --> 00:06:20,660 在连续第三根阴线之后 148 00:06:20,660 --> 00:06:23,139 突然出现了一根非常大的阴线 149 00:06:23,139 --> 00:06:23,819 不仅如此 150 00:06:23,819 --> 00:06:26,160 仔细看这根大阴线的开盘价 151 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:27,740 和前一根阴线的收盘价 152 00:06:27,740 --> 00:06:30,040 很多交易者当他们看到反转 153 00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:31,899 并看到连续三根阴线时 154 00:06:31,899 --> 00:06:35,839 他们会市价卖出做空这根K线收盘的瞬间 155 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:37,620 有非常多的市价卖单 156 00:06:37,620 --> 00:06:40,800 于是下一根K线跳空低开 157 00:06:41,420 --> 00:06:43,600 这是空投在急切卖出的信号 158 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:44,459 等到收盘 159 00:06:44,459 --> 00:06:46,699 他变成了一根非常大的阴线 160 00:06:46,699 --> 00:06:48,970 这意味着多头放弃了 161 00:06:48,970 --> 00:06:51,529 他们没有在通道的下沿买入 162 00:06:51,529 --> 00:06:53,889 因为他们不再认为这是一个上涨趋势 163 00:06:53,889 --> 00:06:58,069 他们认为要么会有几段下跌形成震荡区间 164 00:06:58,069 --> 00:07:01,189 要么会有几段下跌反转成为下降趋势 165 00:07:01,189 --> 00:07:05,319 像这样的反转大阴线我称之为放弃K线 166 00:07:05,319 --> 00:07:06,779 多头放弃了 167 00:07:06,779 --> 00:07:07,779 如果他们放弃了 168 00:07:07,779 --> 00:07:10,379 他们就不会在一两根K线之内立刻再次买入 169 00:07:10,379 --> 00:07:11,899 他们会等待至少几段下跌 170 00:07:11,899 --> 00:07:13,879 然后才考虑买入 171 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:20,720 楔形顶连续三根阴线 172 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:24,730 上涨趋势可能已经结束 173 00:07:24,850 --> 00:07:27,110 空投可以在第三根阴线的低点下方 174 00:07:27,110 --> 00:07:28,569 用突破卖单开仓做空 175 00:07:28,569 --> 00:07:30,290 很多交易者确实都这么做了 176 00:07:30,290 --> 00:07:33,329 所以这根K线会变成这样 177 00:07:35,620 --> 00:07:40,500 你也可以在大阴线的收盘卖出压住交易者 178 00:07:40,500 --> 00:07:42,100 达成共识 179 00:07:42,819 --> 00:07:44,319 至少会有第二段下跌 180 00:07:44,319 --> 00:07:46,720 因此你可以在那根K线的收盘价卖出 181 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:48,339 初始止损放在这里 182 00:07:48,339 --> 00:07:49,639 或这里压住 183 00:07:49,639 --> 00:07:51,680 第一次向上反转会失败 184 00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:54,360 那些在这里买入并在更低价格加仓的多头 185 00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:55,379 希望能打平离场 186 00:07:55,379 --> 00:07:58,259 他们会在反弹时卖出空头 187 00:07:58,259 --> 00:08:02,259 当然也在卖出之前没有在这里卖出的空头 188 00:08:02,259 --> 00:08:04,680 现在相信市场会继续下跌 189 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:08,000 他们会在反弹的时候卖出 190 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:13,180 他们可以在这根阴线的上方卖出 191 00:08:13,180 --> 00:08:14,839 因为它不是好的做多信号 192 00:08:14,839 --> 00:08:17,439 他们也可以在这根阴线的下方卖出 193 00:08:17,439 --> 00:08:18,180 小阳线 194 00:08:18,180 --> 00:08:19,779 第一次尝试上涨 195 00:08:19,779 --> 00:08:21,300 阴线继续下跌 196 00:08:21,300 --> 00:08:23,629 两根阳线第二次向上 197 00:08:23,629 --> 00:08:25,269 而这根阴线告诉我 198 00:08:25,269 --> 00:08:28,149 向上反转的尝试将会失败 199 00:08:28,149 --> 00:08:29,910 这是一个双顶熊旗 200 00:08:29,910 --> 00:08:31,800 上涨下跌上涨 201 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:33,899 然后是收在低位的阴线 202 00:08:33,899 --> 00:08:35,919 这根大阴线跌破通道之后 203 00:08:35,919 --> 00:08:38,490 市场暂时进入单边下跌 204 00:08:38,490 --> 00:08:41,169 至少会有第二段下跌 205 00:08:48,159 --> 00:08:49,659 反转下跌 206 00:08:49,659 --> 00:08:51,600 第二次反转下跌 207 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:54,599 可以用这两个高点画一条线 208 00:08:54,599 --> 00:08:56,359 市场略微超过那条线 209 00:08:56,359 --> 00:08:58,198 然后再次反转下跌 210 00:08:58,198 --> 00:09:00,058 所以把一和三连起来 211 00:09:00,058 --> 00:09:03,158 替换之前的下降趋势线 212 00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:07,299 为了找到通道的下沿 213 00:09:07,299 --> 00:09:09,259 可以做这条线的平行线 214 00:09:09,259 --> 00:09:11,620 然后把它平移到中间的低点 215 00:09:11,620 --> 00:09:14,389 或任何其他之前的低点 216 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:20,879 一些交易者会画三条线 217 00:09:20,879 --> 00:09:23,539 这个低点那个低点这个低点 218 00:09:23,539 --> 00:09:26,159 然后分别观察市场的反应 219 00:09:26,470 --> 00:09:28,549 当价格跌到那条线时 220 00:09:28,549 --> 00:09:29,990 反转上涨了 221 00:09:29,990 --> 00:09:32,529 当他再次试图向下突破时 222 00:09:32,529 --> 00:09:34,070 第二次反转上涨 223 00:09:34,070 --> 00:09:36,389 两次都收了阳线 224 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:39,100 最左边是非常强的抛售 225 00:09:39,100 --> 00:09:43,450 但是这里呢这里还有这里变弱了 226 00:09:43,450 --> 00:09:46,169 这看起来像是一个震荡区间 227 00:09:46,169 --> 00:09:48,370 这里也是一个震荡区间 228 00:09:48,370 --> 00:09:50,779 这不是一个强下降趋势 229 00:09:50,779 --> 00:09:52,899 是急速变通道的下降趋势 230 00:09:52,899 --> 00:09:54,659 所以非常强势的空头突破 231 00:09:54,659 --> 00:09:55,460 然后进入通道 232 00:09:55,460 --> 00:09:58,750 而下降通道花了很多时间在横盘震荡 233 00:09:58,750 --> 00:09:59,950 这个下降通道 234 00:09:59,950 --> 00:10:03,029 很可能最终只是震荡区间内的一个下跌波段 235 00:10:03,029 --> 00:10:05,559 或者是下降趋势的最后一段下跌 236 00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:09,679 交易者会在通道下沿着寻找反转做多的机会 237 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:11,440 这里有一个小双底 238 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:13,480 两根阳线 239 00:10:17,299 --> 00:10:20,679 你应该在通道下沿卖出吗 240 00:10:20,679 --> 00:10:22,990 压住空头突破会成功 241 00:10:22,990 --> 00:10:25,129 只有25%的概率 242 00:10:25,129 --> 00:10:27,730 空投会成功的加速突破 243 00:10:27,730 --> 00:10:29,830 而当通道像这样弱时 244 00:10:29,830 --> 00:10:32,370 这种可能性更低 245 00:10:32,820 --> 00:10:35,299 相反交易者应该寻找买入的机会 246 00:10:35,299 --> 00:10:37,399 在通道的下沿挂限价买单 247 00:10:37,399 --> 00:10:38,679 正如之前所说 248 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:40,799 你连接这些低点 249 00:10:40,799 --> 00:10:42,460 你可以画平行的通道线 250 00:10:42,460 --> 00:10:44,220 把平行线平移到那个低点 251 00:10:44,220 --> 00:10:47,129 或者这个低点选择其中一条 252 00:10:47,129 --> 00:10:50,009 在下沿附近用现价买单买入 253 00:10:50,009 --> 00:10:52,049 有经验的交易者会用现价买单买入 254 00:10:52,049 --> 00:10:53,730 跌的更低时再加仓买入更多 255 00:10:53,730 --> 00:10:55,850 大多数交易者应该只用突破单入场 256 00:10:55,850 --> 00:10:57,639 要么在这根阳线的最高点上方 257 00:10:57,639 --> 00:11:00,279 要么在两根阳线的最高点上方一个小双底 258 00:11:00,279 --> 00:11:02,960 下跌上涨下跌上涨 259 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:04,639 顺便说一下 260 00:11:04,639 --> 00:11:07,379 这是从通道上沿的第二次向下反转 261 00:11:07,379 --> 00:11:09,200 如果连接这两个高点 262 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:11,980 市场向下反转 263 00:11:12,460 --> 00:11:15,700 多头再次尝试突破这条线再次失败 264 00:11:15,700 --> 00:11:18,940 所以这是合理的做空机会 265 00:11:23,059 --> 00:11:25,240 大多数突破通道的尝试都会失败 266 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:26,440 在这种情况下 267 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:29,860 你是否应该在通道的上沿挂限价卖单做空 268 00:11:29,860 --> 00:11:30,720 压住多头 269 00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:31,419 突破失败 270 00:11:31,419 --> 00:11:32,759 这里的情况有所不同 271 00:11:32,759 --> 00:11:36,139 注大反转模式测试通道的起点急速下跌 272 00:11:36,139 --> 00:11:39,940 反弹通道很可能会转变为震荡区间或上涨趋势 273 00:11:39,940 --> 00:11:42,820 我不会在这个高点用现价卖单做空 274 00:11:42,820 --> 00:11:46,259 不会期望反弹失败并再次反转下跌 275 00:11:46,259 --> 00:11:48,080 尤其是这个小双底之后 276 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,539 有这样一根快速上涨的K线 277 00:11:50,539 --> 00:11:51,700 我不会做空 278 00:11:51,700 --> 00:11:52,980 不会压住价格 279 00:11:52,980 --> 00:11:55,870 在通道上沿反转下跌 280 00:11:57,200 --> 00:11:59,620 背景是一个好的底部反转结构 281 00:11:59,620 --> 00:12:02,669 若下降通道和好的反转结构 282 00:12:02,669 --> 00:12:04,730 然后有一个非常大的阳线 283 00:12:04,730 --> 00:12:05,830 这里发生了什么 284 00:12:05,830 --> 00:12:08,409 是空头再在通道上沿卖出吗 285 00:12:08,409 --> 00:12:11,259 当然不是空投在放弃空投 286 00:12:11,259 --> 00:12:13,970 发现这是一个急速变通道的底部 287 00:12:13,970 --> 00:12:16,090 有好的反转背景与信号 288 00:12:16,090 --> 00:12:19,110 K很可能会有至少几段上涨 289 00:12:19,269 --> 00:12:22,230 空投放弃了空投不会在这里卖出 290 00:12:22,230 --> 00:12:27,519 而多头在买入预期至少有两段上涨潜在的趋势 291 00:12:27,519 --> 00:12:30,190 初期一根大阳线 292 00:12:30,389 --> 00:12:31,950 这是一个放弃K线 293 00:12:31,950 --> 00:12:33,309 空头放弃了 294 00:12:33,309 --> 00:12:35,620 增加了上涨的概率 295 00:12:35,620 --> 00:12:37,919 至少是震荡区间内的一个上涨波段 296 00:12:37,919 --> 00:12:40,460 甚至可能变成上涨趋势 297 00:12:44,259 --> 00:12:48,600 大多数下降趋势以跌破下沿失败而结束 298 00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:50,299 尝试突破失败了 299 00:12:50,299 --> 00:12:51,700 再次尝试突破 300 00:12:51,700 --> 00:12:52,720 第二次失败 301 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:56,799 他看上去不是一个标准的三推楔型 302 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:01,419 这不重要 303 00:13:01,419 --> 00:13:03,139 你可以用这个低点一 304 00:13:03,139 --> 00:13:04,409 这个低点二 305 00:13:04,409 --> 00:13:06,389 然后三这样看作一个新形 306 00:13:06,389 --> 00:13:07,289 这不是关键 307 00:13:07,289 --> 00:13:10,220 关键是市场处于一个弱下降通道 308 00:13:10,220 --> 00:13:12,360 大概率会变成震荡区间 309 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:13,500 甚至被反转 310 00:13:13,500 --> 00:13:15,068 成为上涨趋势 311 00:13:15,068 --> 00:13:17,349 此外还有一个小双底 312 00:13:17,349 --> 00:13:18,828 所以背景适合买入 313 00:13:18,828 --> 00:13:20,948 做波段交易 314 00:13:22,279 --> 00:13:24,980 不要在通道上沿卖出 315 00:13:24,980 --> 00:13:27,360 这是一个好的底部反转结构 316 00:13:27,360 --> 00:13:28,679 有良好的背景 317 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:30,700 有大阳线收在高位 318 00:13:30,700 --> 00:13:33,139 还有良好的跟随 319 00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:37,860 不要卖出做空 320 00:13:37,860 --> 00:13:39,899 而是应该买大阳线的收盘 321 00:13:39,899 --> 00:13:43,000 或者买跟随K线的收盘 322 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:51,240 你也可以在回调时买入 323 00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:53,309 在这两根K线的突破后 324 00:13:53,309 --> 00:13:54,830 有一根阴线回调 325 00:13:54,830 --> 00:13:57,269 交易者可以在他的高点上方挂突破买单 326 00:13:57,269 --> 00:13:59,669 这里和这里也是一样 327 00:13:59,669 --> 00:14:01,649 你也可以用现价买单 328 00:14:01,649 --> 00:14:02,629 这里是一个空投的 329 00:14:02,629 --> 00:14:03,629 二可能是失败的 330 00:14:03,629 --> 00:14:06,029 多头突破可能是第二第一第二 331 00:14:06,029 --> 00:14:07,659 但前面的阳线非常强势 332 00:14:07,659 --> 00:14:09,220 大概率在下方买盘更多 333 00:14:09,220 --> 00:14:10,860 因为这个做空信号不够强势 334 00:14:10,860 --> 00:14:12,259 相比左边的大阳线 335 00:14:12,259 --> 00:14:15,360 所以交易者会在那根K线的低点挂现价买单 336 00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:17,419 订单会在这里成交 337 00:14:22,700 --> 00:14:25,139 你可以划线 338 00:14:25,139 --> 00:14:27,080 根据反转下跌形成的高点 339 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:27,879 更低的高点 340 00:14:27,879 --> 00:14:28,620 更低的低点 341 00:14:28,620 --> 00:14:30,139 你可以画出这条下降趋势线 342 00:14:30,139 --> 00:14:31,419 至于通道的下沿 343 00:14:31,419 --> 00:14:33,299 你可以总是做一条平行线 344 00:14:33,299 --> 00:14:35,779 然后平移到其中一个低点上 345 00:14:35,779 --> 00:14:39,659 或者在这里画一个较宽的通道 346 00:14:40,649 --> 00:14:43,929 你也可以把这些低点连接起来 347 00:14:44,860 --> 00:14:47,600 总是可以选择不同的点来画通道 348 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:49,600 直到你看到向上反转之前 349 00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:53,839 你永远不知道大多数计算机使用的是哪几个点 350 00:14:57,120 --> 00:14:58,919 看这根阴线 351 00:14:58,919 --> 00:15:01,019 这是一个非常大的阴线 352 00:15:01,019 --> 00:15:03,480 空头上次制造出这样的大阴线 353 00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:04,940 是什么时候的事了 354 00:15:04,940 --> 00:15:07,759 超过20根K线之前 355 00:15:09,070 --> 00:15:13,590 事实上整个下降趋势持续了50~60根K线 356 00:15:13,590 --> 00:15:16,470 没有一根K线像他这么强 357 00:15:17,370 --> 00:15:20,490 每当我看到下降趋势持续超过20根K线 358 00:15:20,490 --> 00:15:22,110 再出现最大的阴线 359 00:15:22,110 --> 00:15:26,049 它更有可能是新的更强的下降趋势的开始 360 00:15:26,049 --> 00:15:28,460 还是趋势即将衰竭结束 361 00:15:28,460 --> 00:15:31,100 更有可能是衰竭前的最后一次下跌 362 00:15:31,100 --> 00:15:34,700 同时价格也已经达到这根大阳线的反向mm注 363 00:15:34,700 --> 00:15:38,109 关于反向mm在20中会详细讲解 364 00:15:38,109 --> 00:15:39,469 这是目标位 365 00:15:39,469 --> 00:15:41,609 也是潜在的支撑 366 00:15:41,609 --> 00:15:46,179 理论上大阳线的底部会有多头在这里买入 367 00:15:46,179 --> 00:15:47,639 尝试形成双底 368 00:15:47,639 --> 00:15:49,139 然而没有出现这样的情况 369 00:15:49,139 --> 00:15:50,279 如果向下跌破 370 00:15:50,279 --> 00:15:52,818 可以把它看作一个失败的双底 371 00:15:52,818 --> 00:15:56,139 市场下跌的目标通常等于双底颈线的高度 372 00:15:56,139 --> 00:15:58,958 大阳线的底部本该有支撑 373 00:15:58,958 --> 00:16:00,629 尝试形成双底 374 00:16:00,629 --> 00:16:02,649 那么这里就是双底的颈线 375 00:16:02,649 --> 00:16:04,710 多头会期待向上的MM目标位 376 00:16:04,710 --> 00:16:06,990 然而潜在的双底直接被跌破了 377 00:16:06,990 --> 00:16:10,284 于是空头期待会有反向的MM目标位 378 00:16:11,039 --> 00:16:15,100 这个收盘价和那个低点之间的缺口 379 00:16:15,100 --> 00:16:16,720 可能会被填补 380 00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:18,860 在这里确实补掉了这个高点 381 00:16:18,860 --> 00:16:19,879 超过了那个低点 382 00:16:19,879 --> 00:16:24,679 所以这个大阴线不是加速形成更强的下降趋势 383 00:16:26,519 --> 00:16:28,639 更有可能是趋势衰竭前最后的下跌 384 00:16:28,639 --> 00:16:29,840 事实也确实如此 385 00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:33,089 大多数趋势衰竭前的抛售高潮 386 00:16:33,089 --> 00:16:34,629 后面通常是震荡区间 387 00:16:34,629 --> 00:16:36,448 而不是直接反转成上涨趋势 388 00:16:36,448 --> 00:16:38,349 但是一旦形成了震荡区间 389 00:16:38,349 --> 00:16:41,339 多头就有机会向上突破反转 390 00:16:41,339 --> 00:16:46,339 比如这里市场很少这样下跌之后立刻反转上涨 391 00:16:46,799 --> 00:16:50,879 它通常先需要演变成一个震荡区间来止跌 392 00:16:50,879 --> 00:16:54,840 然后多头才有机会反转上涨 393 00:16:55,740 --> 00:16:57,440 注意它发声的位置 394 00:16:57,440 --> 00:17:00,068 在一个通道的下沿 395 00:17:00,188 --> 00:17:01,889 明显的下降趋势线 396 00:17:01,889 --> 00:17:03,589 然后这里有一条平行线 397 00:17:03,589 --> 00:17:05,388 或者你可以连接这些低点 398 00:17:05,388 --> 00:17:06,628 画一条通道线 399 00:17:06,628 --> 00:17:07,710 无论怎么画 400 00:17:07,710 --> 00:17:11,890 空头尝试加速跌破通道下沿的尝试失败了 401 00:17:11,890 --> 00:17:13,670 第一次小反转 402 00:17:13,670 --> 00:17:16,349 第二次大反转 403 00:17:19,099 --> 00:17:23,099 大阴线突破形成的缺口被填补了 404 00:17:26,019 --> 00:17:27,700 交易者会买入做多 405 00:17:27,700 --> 00:17:29,920 有人在第一次反转上涨时就买入 406 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,660 第二次反转上涨时买入的胜率会更高 407 00:17:32,660 --> 00:17:34,470 这里有一个双底低点 408 00:17:34,470 --> 00:17:38,569 略微抬高的双底向上突破之后有一些回调 409 00:17:38,569 --> 00:17:40,470 多头也会在这里买入 410 00:17:40,470 --> 00:17:42,789 你应该在通道上沿迈出吗 411 00:17:42,789 --> 00:17:44,569 不这是一个非常强势的反转 412 00:17:44,569 --> 00:17:46,079 有两根非常大的阳线 413 00:17:46,079 --> 00:17:47,720 在那根K线的低点下方 414 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:49,559 大概率会有更多人愿意买入 415 00:17:49,559 --> 00:17:51,200 多头会买那根K线的收盘 416 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:53,299 也会在这根K线的低点挂线价买单 417 00:17:53,299 --> 00:17:54,500 这里有一个小三角形 418 00:17:54,500 --> 00:17:55,319 三次下跌 419 00:17:55,319 --> 00:17:58,220 阴线阳线阴线阳线阴线 420 00:17:58,220 --> 00:18:00,099 三根阴线或者说三组阴线 421 00:18:00,099 --> 00:18:01,099 所以是三角形 422 00:18:01,099 --> 00:18:04,039 然后有阳线交易者会在那根阳线的高点上方 423 00:18:04,039 --> 00:18:04,859 挂突破买单 424 00:18:04,859 --> 00:18:07,619 做多订单会在这里触发成交 425 00:18:10,579 --> 00:18:14,940 接下来我想讲一讲反转和突破的失败 426 00:18:23,779 --> 00:18:26,400 可以连接不同的点来画这个通道的下沿 427 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:27,180 无论如何 428 00:18:27,180 --> 00:18:30,409 如果市场从通道下至沿开始反转上涨 429 00:18:30,409 --> 00:18:32,009 最低目标是什么 430 00:18:32,009 --> 00:18:36,568 最低目标是至少要稍微超过通道的上沿 431 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:44,160 从通道上沿向下反转 432 00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:48,410 最低目标是至少稍微跌破通道的下沿 433 00:18:48,410 --> 00:18:50,289 画通道有不同的方法 434 00:18:50,289 --> 00:18:53,380 这里也许是这里 435 00:18:55,039 --> 00:19:00,039 目标在这里达到了略微低于下沿 436 00:19:05,380 --> 00:19:09,519 反转上涨再次反转上涨最低目标是什么 437 00:19:09,519 --> 00:19:12,779 至少稍微超过通道的上沿 438 00:19:14,460 --> 00:19:16,220 多头达到了他们的目标 439 00:19:16,220 --> 00:19:18,619 你可以看到价格在这里犹豫了 440 00:19:18,619 --> 00:19:21,980 在通道上沿有一些止盈 441 00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:27,700 明显的下降通道 442 00:19:27,700 --> 00:19:28,759 更低的高点 443 00:19:28,759 --> 00:19:31,359 更低的低点尝试加速跌破 444 00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:34,759 然而向上或向下突破通道的尝试 445 00:19:34,759 --> 00:19:37,799 75%都是失败的 446 00:19:37,799 --> 00:19:40,000 这里的多头突破失败了 447 00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,880 这里的空头突破可能也会失败 448 00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:46,259 尤其是当你看到大阴线后面的跟随是阳线 449 00:19:46,259 --> 00:19:48,390 糟糕的跟随阴线 450 00:19:48,390 --> 00:19:50,849 阳线糟糕的跟随 451 00:19:50,849 --> 00:19:54,750 通常突破会在大约五根K线之内失败 452 00:19:57,519 --> 00:20:01,638 至少20多根K线以来最大的阴线是时尚 453 00:20:01,638 --> 00:20:04,798 是70~80根K线以来最大的阴线趋势 454 00:20:04,798 --> 00:20:06,798 更有可能即将衰竭结束 455 00:20:06,798 --> 00:20:11,079 有时在反转之前还会再有一个抛售高潮 456 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:12,559 大的抛售高潮 457 00:20:12,559 --> 00:20:14,099 连续的抛售高潮 458 00:20:14,099 --> 00:20:17,099 市场可能很快就要反转 459 00:20:17,099 --> 00:20:19,859 这个收盘和那个低点之间的缺口 460 00:20:19,859 --> 00:20:22,740 这个收盘和那个低点之间的缺口 461 00:20:23,329 --> 00:20:26,150 这些大概率都是捷径型缺口 462 00:20:26,150 --> 00:20:29,750 价格大概率会反弹到这些低点的上方 463 00:20:29,750 --> 00:20:31,450 事实也确实如此 464 00:20:31,450 --> 00:20:33,950 这个阴线变成了洁净型缺口 465 00:20:33,950 --> 00:20:36,789 而不是测量型缺口 466 00:20:37,839 --> 00:20:41,359 交易者期待这是衰竭前的抛售高潮 467 00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:44,210 期待突破通道下沿失败 468 00:20:44,210 --> 00:20:46,430 他们在寻找反转上涨的做多机会 469 00:20:46,430 --> 00:20:48,730 三次下跌一阳线 470 00:20:48,730 --> 00:20:49,950 二阳线 471 00:20:49,950 --> 00:20:52,049 然后散三推之后出现阳线 472 00:20:52,049 --> 00:20:54,130 多头要么在这根阳线的高点上方买入 473 00:20:54,130 --> 00:20:56,000 或者在这根K线上方买入 474 00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:56,740 胜率更高 475 00:20:56,740 --> 00:20:57,680 他收盘在最高 476 00:20:57,680 --> 00:20:59,440 多头会在他的高点上方买入 477 00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:01,839 或者等看到连续的强势阳线再买入压住 478 00:21:01,839 --> 00:21:03,680 这是上涨波段的开始 479 00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:05,059 再次大阳线突破 480 00:21:05,059 --> 00:21:06,099 后面有好的跟随 481 00:21:06,099 --> 00:21:07,079 多头会继续买入 482 00:21:07,079 --> 00:21:07,630 做多 483 00:21:07,630 --> 00:21:09,170 回调之后出现阳线 484 00:21:09,170 --> 00:21:11,230 多头会在它的高点上方买入 485 00:21:11,230 --> 00:21:14,759 订单会在成交这里空投在通道的上沿 486 00:21:14,759 --> 00:21:16,140 尝试了两次反转 487 00:21:16,140 --> 00:21:17,279 一次两次 488 00:21:17,279 --> 00:21:18,720 但是失败了 489 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:21,299 多头会在这根阳线的高点上方买入 490 00:21:21,299 --> 00:21:25,160 压住被套的空头会买入回补他们的空单 491 00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:32,200 从通道上沿向下反转 492 00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:35,400 最低目标是稍微低于通道的下沿 493 00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:37,920 那个目标达到了 494 00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:42,880 从通道下沿反转上涨 495 00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:45,660 最低目标是稍微高于通道的上沿 496 00:21:45,660 --> 00:21:48,000 多头在这里达到了他们的目标 497 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:49,299 然而价格继续上涨 498 00:21:49,299 --> 00:21:51,339 远远超过了最低目标 499 00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:59,000 这是欧元兑日元的15分钟K线图 500 00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:04,279 目标是至少高于通道上沿一个点 501 00:22:10,099 --> 00:22:11,079 反转下跌 502 00:22:11,079 --> 00:22:13,079 反转下跌可以画一条线 503 00:22:13,079 --> 00:22:16,220 然后预期价格在这里会再次反转下跌 504 00:22:16,220 --> 00:22:20,119 但是看这里多头尝试向上突破楔形顶 505 00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:20,980 这是一个楔形 506 00:22:20,980 --> 00:22:23,329 123被向上突破 507 00:22:23,329 --> 00:22:24,410 一般来说 508 00:22:24,410 --> 00:22:27,750 如果价格突破了一个合理的止损区域 509 00:22:27,750 --> 00:22:30,910 50%的概率会出现一个强上涨趋势 510 00:22:30,910 --> 00:22:33,269 50%的概率突破会失败 511 00:22:33,269 --> 00:22:34,990 然后反转下跌 512 00:22:34,990 --> 00:22:37,190 我从这个点开始画些形的线 513 00:22:37,190 --> 00:22:39,099 但这里的上涨非常强势 514 00:22:39,099 --> 00:22:40,900 所以很多交易者会重新开始数 515 00:22:40,900 --> 00:22:42,140 认为新形从这里开始 516 00:22:42,140 --> 00:22:43,339 所以这是第一推 517 00:22:43,339 --> 00:22:45,089 这是第二推 518 00:22:46,730 --> 00:22:47,710 无论如何 519 00:22:47,710 --> 00:22:51,009 市场一度强势突破了通道的上沿 520 00:22:51,009 --> 00:22:53,960 但在最后收盘收在最低 521 00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:58,240 大概率市场至少会有几段下跌 522 00:22:58,799 --> 00:23:01,440 一回调二就结束了吗 523 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:02,960 非常窄的下降通道 524 00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:07,349 这可能是两个大波段中的第一段下跌一反弹 525 00:23:07,349 --> 00:23:10,640 然后二或者二一 526 00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,700 当市场测试通道的上沿或下沿时 527 00:23:14,700 --> 00:23:17,460 价格经常会略微超出即突刺 528 00:23:17,460 --> 00:23:18,759 在反转之前 529 00:23:18,759 --> 00:23:21,130 他会先超过这条线 530 00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:24,500 有时当价格测试一条线时 531 00:23:24,500 --> 00:23:27,440 在到达线之前就反转上涨了 532 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:29,480 没有碰到极短缺 533 00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:30,839 跌下来下跌 534 00:23:30,839 --> 00:23:33,420 上涨再下跌再上涨 535 00:23:33,420 --> 00:23:35,170 这是一个小双底 536 00:23:35,170 --> 00:23:37,490 但他没有碰到这条线 537 00:23:37,490 --> 00:23:40,640 这是一个短缺啊 538 00:23:44,140 --> 00:23:46,299 市场周期突破之后 539 00:23:46,299 --> 00:23:49,170 趋势减弱变成通道 540 00:23:49,329 --> 00:23:53,029 然后通道再减弱变成震荡区间 541 00:23:53,029 --> 00:23:56,069 然后市场决定下一个突破的方向 542 00:23:56,069 --> 00:23:58,180 向上或向下 543 00:23:58,299 --> 00:24:01,220 楔形通道被强势跌破 544 00:24:01,950 --> 00:24:03,869 两段下跌一反弹 545 00:24:03,869 --> 00:24:06,849 二你也可以说它是急速变通道的下降趋势 546 00:24:06,849 --> 00:24:09,619 空头突破继续下跌反弹 547 00:24:09,619 --> 00:24:11,160 然后几段下跌 548 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:15,519 这是下降通道楔形的下降通道 549 00:24:16,039 --> 00:24:19,859 尽管它是一个急速变通道的下降趋势 550 00:24:19,859 --> 00:24:23,500 它仍然是属于大震荡区间内的一个下跌波段 551 00:24:23,500 --> 00:24:25,900 就像这是一个强势的上涨波段 552 00:24:25,900 --> 00:24:28,700 但它最终只是属于大震荡区间内的 553 00:24:28,700 --> 00:24:31,420 一个上涨波段 554 00:24:35,519 --> 00:24:39,200 这是欧元兑美元的5分钟K线图 555 00:24:42,380 --> 00:24:45,740 大多数时候当市场测试一条线时 556 00:24:45,740 --> 00:24:47,960 它会有一定程度的超出 557 00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:49,960 然后反转下跌 558 00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:52,740 这个高点略微超过了那条线 559 00:24:52,740 --> 00:24:55,000 这是突刺突刺的一些例子 560 00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:56,039 紫色圈圈 561 00:24:56,039 --> 00:24:57,420 我可以画一条线 562 00:24:57,420 --> 00:24:58,799 价格超过了它 563 00:24:58,799 --> 00:25:01,079 然后反转下跌 564 00:25:01,410 --> 00:25:04,009 我可以在下降趋势线上方画一条线 565 00:25:04,009 --> 00:25:04,950 略微超过 566 00:25:04,950 --> 00:25:07,089 然后反转下跌 567 00:25:07,318 --> 00:25:09,058 下降通道线跌破 568 00:25:09,058 --> 00:25:10,479 然后反转上涨 569 00:25:10,479 --> 00:25:12,959 所以这些都是突刺 570 00:25:13,559 --> 00:25:14,660 它们很常见 571 00:25:14,660 --> 00:25:16,380 但有时也会出现短缺 572 00:25:16,380 --> 00:25:17,779 橙色圈圈 573 00:25:17,779 --> 00:25:19,619 这里我可以画一条线 574 00:25:19,619 --> 00:25:23,250 价格没有碰到这条线就反转上涨了 575 00:25:23,250 --> 00:25:26,880 这里有一个双底市场猛烈的抛售 576 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,960 但是还没有碰到这条线就反转上涨了 577 00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:32,079 这是一个短缺 578 00:25:37,059 --> 00:25:41,660 通道这是一个扩张的三推楔形通道 579 00:25:42,059 --> 00:25:45,059 通道一般都会演变成震荡区间 580 00:25:45,059 --> 00:25:46,680 大阳线强势突破之后 581 00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:48,180 这里是一个较弱的通道 582 00:25:48,180 --> 00:25:49,519 试图变得更强 583 00:25:49,519 --> 00:25:54,099 三次上涨最终演变成一个震荡区间 584 00:25:54,099 --> 00:25:56,029 市场周期强 585 00:25:56,029 --> 00:25:59,670 上涨趋势变成通道和较弱的上涨趋势 586 00:25:59,670 --> 00:26:01,269 低点和高点都在抬高 587 00:26:01,269 --> 00:26:02,710 所以这是一个通道 588 00:26:02,710 --> 00:26:05,750 预期价格会向下跌破 589 00:26:06,049 --> 00:26:07,490 演变成震荡区间 590 00:26:07,490 --> 00:26:08,789 就像这里一样 591 00:26:08,789 --> 00:26:11,569 通常都是这样的情况 592 00:26:13,859 --> 00:26:17,000 宽通道和震荡区间很容易混淆 593 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:21,420 因为宽通道总是有很多横盘的价格行为 594 00:26:24,900 --> 00:26:25,980 当你看到这个时 595 00:26:25,980 --> 00:26:27,460 你觉得它是下降趋势 596 00:26:27,460 --> 00:26:29,700 上涨趋势还是一个震荡区间 597 00:26:29,700 --> 00:26:31,480 显然是震荡区间 598 00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,000 但如果更仔细的观察它 599 00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:37,720 高点降低了 600 00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:41,680 所以它实际上是下降趋势的早期阶段 601 00:26:42,818 --> 00:26:44,078 低点也降低了 602 00:26:44,078 --> 00:26:45,919 所以他显然是下降趋势 603 00:26:45,919 --> 00:26:48,338 同时也是震荡区间 604 00:26:53,799 --> 00:26:56,079 你觉得它是下降趋势 605 00:26:56,079 --> 00:27:00,930 宽下降通道还是震荡区间很重要吗 606 00:27:00,930 --> 00:27:01,549 不重要 607 00:27:01,549 --> 00:27:03,250 因为你按照同样的方式去交易 608 00:27:03,250 --> 00:27:05,619 他们高抛低吸包头皮赚快钱 609 00:27:05,619 --> 00:27:07,279 做包头皮交易的原因是 610 00:27:07,279 --> 00:27:11,179 你不认为任何上涨或下跌的波段可以走得很远 611 00:27:11,179 --> 00:27:12,939 即使它是一个下降趋势 612 00:27:12,939 --> 00:27:16,519 下跌的波段与上涨的波段没有太大区别 613 00:27:16,519 --> 00:27:18,200 它不是一个强趋势 614 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:19,859 市场会来回的反转 615 00:27:19,859 --> 00:27:23,220 所以最好用剥头皮的方式去交易 616 00:27:25,898 --> 00:27:29,759 每当市场接近前一个低点并开始反转上涨时 617 00:27:29,759 --> 00:27:31,919 尤其是如果这是第二次入场 618 00:27:31,919 --> 00:27:34,159 下跌上涨下跌上涨 619 00:27:34,159 --> 00:27:35,359 这是好的买点 620 00:27:35,420 --> 00:27:37,259 在这个阳线的高点上方买入 621 00:27:37,259 --> 00:27:39,619 比在这个十字星上方买入的胜率要更高 622 00:27:40,940 --> 00:27:43,740 不过两个入场点都合理 623 00:27:44,910 --> 00:27:45,869 强势反弹 624 00:27:45,869 --> 00:27:47,599 但仍然低于前一个高点 625 00:27:47,599 --> 00:27:48,819 也许是震荡区间 626 00:27:48,819 --> 00:27:49,640 也许是通道 627 00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:51,599 交易者会寻找卖出做空的机会 628 00:27:51,599 --> 00:27:52,920 第二做空入场点 629 00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:54,650 第一第二阴线 630 00:27:54,650 --> 00:27:56,410 一些交易者会在这里卖出做空 631 00:27:56,410 --> 00:27:58,529 一些交易者会说这里有大阳线 632 00:27:58,529 --> 00:27:59,670 这里又有大阳线 633 00:27:59,670 --> 00:28:01,730 所以等待第二个反转信号再卖出 634 00:28:01,730 --> 00:28:03,390 也就是在那根阴线的下方 635 00:28:03,390 --> 00:28:05,109 在这里用突破卖单开仓做空 636 00:28:05,109 --> 00:28:06,190 这里也是一样 637 00:28:06,190 --> 00:28:09,388 强势上涨低做空入场点的胜率不高 638 00:28:09,388 --> 00:28:12,209 第二做空入场点的胜率会更高一些 639 00:28:12,209 --> 00:28:15,759 小双顶降低的高点 640 00:28:19,140 --> 00:28:21,559 你可以说它是震荡区间 641 00:28:21,559 --> 00:28:24,138 你可以说它是宽上涨通道都一样 642 00:28:24,138 --> 00:28:25,419 回调很深 643 00:28:25,419 --> 00:28:27,358 持续了很多根K线 644 00:28:27,358 --> 00:28:29,459 空头会在反弹时卖出 645 00:28:29,459 --> 00:28:32,259 至少做包头皮交易 646 00:28:34,559 --> 00:28:36,839 它也是一个上涨通道 647 00:28:36,839 --> 00:28:40,750 突破回调很多K线回调很多K线 648 00:28:40,750 --> 00:28:41,930 但是低点在抬高 649 00:28:41,930 --> 00:28:43,039 高点也在抬高 650 00:28:43,039 --> 00:28:44,440 通道线是收敛的 651 00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:48,299 这是一个急速变通道的上涨趋势啊 652 00:28:50,599 --> 00:28:52,759 这显然是一个震荡区间 653 00:28:52,759 --> 00:28:55,769 但是高点和低点都在降低 654 00:28:55,890 --> 00:29:00,250 所以它也处于宽下降通道的早期阶段 655 00:29:09,180 --> 00:29:13,888 每个震荡区间内都同时存在做多和做空的信号 656 00:29:13,888 --> 00:29:19,619 每个震荡区间内都有上涨通道和下降通道啊 657 00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:23,079 当你看到这样的行情 658 00:29:23,079 --> 00:29:25,839 市场显然处于震荡区间 659 00:29:26,750 --> 00:29:28,369 他处于突破模式 660 00:29:28,369 --> 00:29:32,029 然而你也可以说额低点在抬高 661 00:29:32,029 --> 00:29:33,269 高点也在抬高 662 00:29:33,269 --> 00:29:34,970 它好像也是上涨趋势 663 00:29:34,970 --> 00:29:36,470 它确实是上涨趋势 664 00:29:36,470 --> 00:29:38,210 如果市场继续上涨 665 00:29:38,210 --> 00:29:40,829 然后问你上涨趋势从哪里开始 666 00:29:40,829 --> 00:29:42,500 你会说这里或这里 667 00:29:42,500 --> 00:29:45,388 所以也是上涨趋势啊 668 00:29:45,523 --> 00:29:47,328 从另一个角度看 669 00:29:47,328 --> 00:29:49,148 这个低点低于那个低点 670 00:29:49,148 --> 00:29:51,480 这个高点低于那个高点 671 00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:53,279 所以这也可能是下降趋势 672 00:29:53,279 --> 00:29:57,079 如果最终下跌跌出屏幕的范围 673 00:29:57,700 --> 00:30:00,220 如果有人问你下降趋势从哪里开始 674 00:30:00,220 --> 00:30:01,920 你会说是从这里开始的 675 00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:02,900 所以在这一时刻 676 00:30:02,900 --> 00:30:04,220 它既是一个下降趋势 677 00:30:04,220 --> 00:30:05,539 也是一个上涨趋势 678 00:30:05,539 --> 00:30:08,119 这是所有震荡区间的情况 679 00:30:08,119 --> 00:30:09,400 他们是中立的 680 00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:10,940 他们具有上涨的特征 681 00:30:10,940 --> 00:30:12,579 也具有下跌的特征 682 00:30:12,579 --> 00:30:13,880 它处于突破模式 683 00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:16,599 最终某一方会获胜 684 00:30:18,660 --> 00:30:20,240 显然是一个震荡区间 685 00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:22,579 市场在横盘 686 00:30:26,220 --> 00:30:27,539 更低的高点 687 00:30:27,539 --> 00:30:28,779 更低的高点 688 00:30:29,819 --> 00:30:32,859 所以是下降趋势的早期阶段 689 00:30:34,088 --> 00:30:36,689 然而这是上涨之后的两段下跌 690 00:30:36,689 --> 00:30:37,808 一反弹 691 00:30:37,808 --> 00:30:42,249 二它可以是上涨趋势中的高两牛企 692 00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:47,519 一旦震荡区间持续20根或更多K线 693 00:30:48,559 --> 00:30:52,569 多头突破的概率就等于空头突破的概率 694 00:30:52,930 --> 00:30:54,890 所有合理的波段交易 695 00:30:54,890 --> 00:30:58,329 都有大约40%的成功率 696 00:30:59,940 --> 00:31:01,380 为什么这么说呢 697 00:31:01,380 --> 00:31:05,019 尽管50%的概率最终会上涨 698 00:31:05,019 --> 00:31:08,319 玩50%的概率最终会下跌 699 00:31:08,319 --> 00:31:10,500 但是也有50%的概率 700 00:31:10,500 --> 00:31:13,380 第一次突破尝试会失败 701 00:31:14,049 --> 00:31:16,630 所以任何看上去很好的做多机会 702 00:31:16,630 --> 00:31:17,990 或者是做空机会 703 00:31:17,990 --> 00:31:19,750 其实只有40%的概率 704 00:31:19,750 --> 00:31:21,769 是一个波段的开始 705 00:31:25,019 --> 00:31:26,119 更低的高点 706 00:31:26,119 --> 00:31:28,859 更低的低点下降趋势 707 00:31:29,579 --> 00:31:30,759 更高的高点 708 00:31:30,759 --> 00:31:33,130 更高的低点上涨趋势 709 00:31:33,130 --> 00:31:34,910 但实际上是震荡区间 710 00:31:34,910 --> 00:31:36,890 这就是所有震荡区间会出现的情况 711 00:31:36,890 --> 00:31:38,089 总是同时存在 712 00:31:38,089 --> 00:31:42,859 上涨趋势的早期阶段和下降趋势的早期阶段 713 00:31:42,859 --> 00:31:43,539 任何时候 714 00:31:43,539 --> 00:31:45,099 当你看到一个不错的信号 715 00:31:45,099 --> 00:31:48,000 比如这里的高二买点有40%的概率 716 00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:49,539 这是一个上涨波段的开始 717 00:31:49,539 --> 00:31:51,079 或者不错的做空信号 718 00:31:51,079 --> 00:31:53,680 比如这里的小双顶高点降低 719 00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:55,799 不错的阴线四零百分号的概率 720 00:31:55,799 --> 00:31:58,319 这是一个下跌波段的开始 721 00:32:00,599 --> 00:32:02,019 在这个特定的案例中 722 00:32:02,019 --> 00:32:04,160 最后是空投获胜 723 00:32:04,619 --> 00:32:07,380 一根大阴线收在低位 724 00:32:07,380 --> 00:32:09,219 并且有跟随K线 725 00:32:09,219 --> 00:32:11,118 大概率是一个测量型缺口 726 00:32:11,118 --> 00:32:12,578 而不是洁净型缺口 727 00:32:12,578 --> 00:32:15,559 你可以看到多头不断的尝试填补这个缺口 728 00:32:15,559 --> 00:32:17,680 他们不断尝试让市场上涨 729 00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:19,660 超过这个低点和那个低点 730 00:32:19,660 --> 00:32:21,319 补掉左右缺口 731 00:32:21,319 --> 00:32:22,839 但是他们失败了 732 00:32:22,839 --> 00:32:24,200 双顶雄奇 733 00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:28,440 这个高点那个高点预期价格会继续下跌 734 00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:36,240 震荡区间大阴线突破 735 00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:37,319 大阴线跟随 736 00:32:37,319 --> 00:32:39,200 把震荡区间高度往下翻一倍 737 00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:41,259 是最小的mm目标位 738 00:32:41,259 --> 00:32:45,829 这里市场的跌幅远远不止这些啊 739 00:32:46,710 --> 00:32:48,009 更高的低点 740 00:32:48,009 --> 00:32:49,569 更高的高点 741 00:32:49,569 --> 00:32:52,230 也许是上涨趋势的早期阶段 742 00:32:52,230 --> 00:32:53,390 如果市场向上突破 743 00:32:53,390 --> 00:32:54,230 你会说哦 744 00:32:54,230 --> 00:32:55,720 当然它会向上突破了 745 00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:58,440 因为这里有低点和高点都在抬高 746 00:32:58,440 --> 00:32:59,779 如果市场向下突破 747 00:32:59,779 --> 00:33:01,720 你会说肯定会向下突破 748 00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:03,559 因为高点和低点都降低了 749 00:33:03,559 --> 00:33:04,279 震荡区间 750 00:33:04,279 --> 00:33:08,599 总是同时具有上涨和下降趋势的早期特征 751 00:33:09,950 --> 00:33:12,730 50%的概率多头会获胜 752 00:33:12,730 --> 00:33:15,859 50%的概率空头会获胜 753 00:33:15,859 --> 00:33:17,559 高胜率的做法是 754 00:33:17,559 --> 00:33:22,079 在看到非常强的突破之前不要入场啊 755 00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:25,519 更低的高点 756 00:33:25,519 --> 00:33:27,160 更低的低点下降趋势 757 00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:28,039 更高的低点 758 00:33:28,039 --> 00:33:30,599 更高的高点上涨趋势 759 00:33:34,180 --> 00:33:36,019 这是黄线双顶区域的特写 760 00:33:36,019 --> 00:33:36,940 镜头更小 761 00:33:36,940 --> 00:33:40,089 时间周期可以看到更高的高点 762 00:33:40,089 --> 00:33:42,769 这个高点略微超过了那个高点 763 00:33:42,769 --> 00:33:45,319 所以是更高的高点 764 00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:47,160 这是一个多头陷阱 765 00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:50,240 诱使交易者在突破前期高点的时候买入 766 00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:51,259 在某一时刻 767 00:33:51,259 --> 00:33:54,940 它看上去是一根收在高位的阳线 768 00:33:55,119 --> 00:33:57,339 好像就要成功的向上突破了 769 00:33:57,339 --> 00:33:58,759 但到K线收盘时 770 00:33:58,759 --> 00:34:00,880 他变成了一根收在最低的阴线 771 00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:03,480 突破区间上沿失败 772 00:34:06,299 --> 00:34:07,259 多头放弃了 773 00:34:07,259 --> 00:34:09,099 不管下跌是出于什么原因 774 00:34:09,099 --> 00:34:10,099 原因不重要 775 00:34:10,099 --> 00:34:13,239 它的收盘低于过去50或60根K线的低点 776 00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:14,920 并且有跟随K线 777 00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:16,639 大概率是测量型缺口 778 00:34:16,639 --> 00:34:18,539 多头尝试在这里补缺口 779 00:34:18,539 --> 00:34:20,380 在这里又尝试补缺口 780 00:34:20,380 --> 00:34:21,800 这里又再次尝试 781 00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:25,878 但他们做不到几次尝试补缺口失败 782 00:34:25,878 --> 00:34:29,139 你只能预期价格会反转下跌 783 00:34:29,139 --> 00:34:32,338 交易者会因为任何原因卖出 784 00:34:34,940 --> 00:34:36,519 在这节课的开头 785 00:34:36,519 --> 00:34:41,619 我讲了如何用限价单在通道的上下沿高抛低吸 786 00:34:42,030 --> 00:34:46,150 然后我讲了大多数的趋势都是从突破开始的 787 00:34:46,150 --> 00:34:49,139 尽管有时突破并不是很明显 788 00:34:49,139 --> 00:34:50,579 我还讲了反转 789 00:34:50,579 --> 00:34:55,130 讲了很多突破是如何失败并且被反转的 790 00:34:55,409 --> 00:34:58,130 然后是震荡区间和宽通道 791 00:34:58,130 --> 00:35:00,050 你总是很难区分他们 792 00:35:00,050 --> 00:35:02,610 因为他们经常共存 793 00:35:03,039 --> 00:35:06,159 宽通道总是花费大量的时间横盘震荡 794 00:35:06,159 --> 00:35:09,239 而且大多数震荡区间内都有宽上涨通道和 795 00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:11,170 宽下降下降通道 796 00:35:11,170 --> 00:35:13,469 我讲的最后一个话题是 797 00:35:13,469 --> 00:35:17,550 震荡区间同时具有早期上涨和下降趋势的特征 798 00:35:17,550 --> 00:35:20,398 每个震荡区间可以说是100% 799 00:35:20,398 --> 00:35:24,878 都同时具有早期上涨和下降趋势的特征 800 00:35:27,940 --> 00:35:29,360 我是二布鲁克斯 801 00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:33,000 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程通道的第六节 802 00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:34,480 也是最后一节课 803 00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:36,539 到这里就讲完了
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