价值投资选对市场

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今年的投资市场呢

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其实对大部分投资人是非常不公平的啊

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特别是一小部分A股的价值投资人

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为啥呢

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他只能在A股买那些能看懂价值投资的票

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他下不了那个科技的手

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我举点例子啊

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比如说一个茅台净利润

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交的税之和

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就举个例子就是这么残酷的吗

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一个腾讯等于好几倍的

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这些科创板的这些分红回购是吧

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一个腾讯的利润等于啊

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整个科创板的好几倍的净利润

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其实这个逻辑会问

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就是当你做价值投资的时候

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你下不了手

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所以说你就感觉价值投资在A股没有用

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不是的

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价值投就有用

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在美股非常有用

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我这么给大家讲哈

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到今天为止纳的极限没平均P30多倍

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一年净利润6000亿美金

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各位你看他占了美股的70万亿的3%

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40对吧

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好了

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四十二十%多万亿

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你算他一年6000亿净利润你算多少倍

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是不是差不多就是35~40倍之间

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但是科技呢A股科技呢多少倍一两百倍

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所以实际上呢你再仔细看一下A股

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科技的这些公司的含量啊

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咱不能说一冬天啊

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还是有大订单啊

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英伟达链之类的啊

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英伟达啊

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假谷歌拿了他的光模块订单了

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但你忽略一点

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英伟达他在投资了美国多少下游公司

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而且新医生也好

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包括这个啊

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所有的公司的那些光模块里面的

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最核心的那些技术

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还不是博通的嘛

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对吧

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还不是靠上游吗

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那博通四用率多少

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你去看一下博通的利润多少

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博通的利润都在翻倍的增长

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所以很多时候呢你在做A股价值投资人的时候

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你如果你没有接触A股

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你就很难理解价值投资在美股为什么有效

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因为它有好公司

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他有核心护胜客的公司

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还有那些你拿住之后

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哪怕买贵了能够回来的公司

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你看我今年年初

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当时博通323的时候

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就我在群里面给兄弟们讲

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我说普通这家公司沟通的很深对吧

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因为他一个是给这个谷歌啊

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谷歌的TPU啥代工的

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第二个呢

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就是它基本上给国内所有的光模块公司啊

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供了这些所谓的这些芯片啊

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所有的最核心的技术全是他的

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所以你就知道了

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在美股投资的好处在于说

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你能够买到这些真正意义上具备互通的公司

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你在A股是吧

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他这些公司生意很好

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生意很好

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但是能持续吗

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不知道一切看人脸色

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订单给你你就持续不给你

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你就拉倒了

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文泰科技不一要破产了吗

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ST了吗对吧

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当年被这个苹果踢出果链的欧菲光

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不影响完蛋了吗

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这一就是订单一旦取消了

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公司就完了

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什么时候取消

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不知道

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第二给你砍单

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给你砍利润对吧

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国内就出现这个问题啊

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看看那看看利润砍没了

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所以实际上这就是在A股价投的一个残酷性

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就是所谓的周期是说你这个生意能持续多久

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你是不知道的

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那个钱赚的你不踏实

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在美股不是我的谷歌

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我去年买入到现在赚了多少钱

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我啥也没动

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我就没想一年之内卖成就拿了一年翻倍了对吧

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大资金啊

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所以说很多时候啊就是赚大钱一定不是靠赌

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赚大钱一定不是靠炒

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那赚钱一定是确定性

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今年A股股民呢就是因为啊买对了趋势赚了钱

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下一波他认为说我这么干还能赚到钱

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哎正好把今年赚的钱投回去

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这个事你拉长时间一定这样的

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就这个世界他没有什么

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天底下没有太

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阳底下没有新鲜事是吧

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历史呢一再重复哈

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就是我们在美股一样能赚到那么投机的钱

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而且赚多很多倍

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而且是大资金翻几倍啊

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他比A股那种10万20万翻个三倍两倍

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那真的舒服多了对吧

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而且这个钱你知道你是已经赚到手的吗

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所以这就是一个舒服的感觉啊

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就是你也不用去探讨那些投机博弈的东西

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你研究公司啊

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研究产品是吧

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研究这个行业里面的最新的一些革命就行了

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对不对

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所以说不是老段他们过时了啊

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也不是八菲月过时了

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是说他那个资金量

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包括他哎几十年的阅历

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就对他来讲吧

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有些钱是坚决不能碰的

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错误的钱坚决不要对吧

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知道某些事是错误的

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坚决不干

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但是呢A股民不在乎这个啊

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只在乎这个

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不在乎天长地久

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只在乎从前拥有

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所以这种短期的结果呢

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他们就会带来另外一个极端

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所以这也是为什么我每次啊很多人说啊

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庆哥你看看你看看你这个怎么怎么怎么的走位

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我的资产配置你去从头看到尾

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你看我从开始第一天有讲资产配置

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那你买不到美股

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你怪谁呢

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对不对

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那你不能这么讲嘛

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那那那你你考不上北大清华

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你也不能怪老师教的不好

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那有考上的

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对不对

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那那你买不了美股里面的好公司

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那你也去想办法

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对不对

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那第三个你你做生意啊

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对不对

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我们怎么实现的呀

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我们做生意呀

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对不到今天为止

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我在美国还做生意对吧

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我这边的卖的品牌

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你们可以看我的保健品卖的很好呀

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我去年9月份单月保健品过千万了

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对不对

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所以实际上我们这些人呐就是靠做生意

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靠做生意啊

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一点点的积累呀

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对不对

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在中国做生意

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把中国做生意的经验

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做品牌的经验

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做运营的经验

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做互联网经验啊

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做IP的经验

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拿到美国来不做的更好了吗

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老美有什么竞争力啊

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各位你去看看那些老白

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他们没像我们中国这么难

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你知道吗

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他们更不可能像我们似的啊

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天天绞尽脑汁啊

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为了这个实现一个啊

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为了实现一个目标

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这么玩命对吧

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他们吃的苦照我们差远了

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所以实际上你在中国能靠实力

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靠竞争做好

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到美国只会做的更好

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但是你要靠投机赚那些钱呢

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你早晚会亏回去的

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