凡事反过来想

1
00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:04,339
也感谢每次我发视频在下面骂我的人啊

2
00:00:04,339 --> 00:00:07,700
就比如说啊权哥看了你视频啊

3
00:00:07,700 --> 00:00:08,980
给你买了某个公司

4
00:00:08,980 --> 00:00:09,939
结果亏了

5
00:00:09,939 --> 00:00:11,500
打打打打一堆一堆

6
00:00:11,500 --> 00:00:13,339
我在最开始的时候我很生气

7
00:00:13,339 --> 00:00:13,939
你知道吧

8
00:00:13,939 --> 00:00:16,739
我觉得你免费看我的视频

9
00:00:16,739 --> 00:00:19,868
免费给你提供这个公司的分析

10
00:00:19,868 --> 00:00:22,829
虽然说时间呢不一定站到我这边

11
00:00:22,829 --> 00:00:25,028
但我分析的公司大部分都是好公司

12
00:00:25,028 --> 00:00:27,269
因为我是从回报率角度来去分析的嘛

13
00:00:27,269 --> 00:00:29,789
那你拿到最终那几年还要回来的嘛

14
00:00:29,789 --> 00:00:32,429
因为我的回报率还是可以的啊

15
00:00:32,429 --> 00:00:35,700
你非得用天来计算这个骨架的政策有否

16
00:00:35,700 --> 00:00:36,500
那不可能啊

17
00:00:36,500 --> 00:00:37,640
巴菲特也做不到

18
00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:40,340
但是呢我之前的时候我就生气嘛

19
00:00:40,340 --> 00:00:41,740
我现在就很开心

20
00:00:41,740 --> 00:00:42,380
你知道为什么吗

21
00:00:42,380 --> 00:00:43,539
因为每次骂我的多了

22
00:00:43,539 --> 00:00:44,820
就说明股价到底了

23
00:00:44,820 --> 00:00:48,240
你看我前天昨天啊大B加仓

24
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结果你猜怎么着

25
00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:51,000
今天一天全赚回来了

26
00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:53,340
那今年的30%的收益稳了

27
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他为啥

28
00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:55,899
因为加到底部区间了嘛

29
00:00:55,899 --> 00:00:59,600
相对这个恐慌情绪一下子把那些好公司打下来

30
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三四十%

31
00:01:00,579 --> 00:01:02,600
那你想想这是千载难逢呀

32
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美国的科技股啊

33
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真的能低30%的时候很少

34
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去年34月份

35
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那是极端情绪腰斩了

36
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那你想想那哪有这么多极端情绪呀

37
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你从1万涨到涨到2万哈

38
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这是50%的百分百的涨幅

39
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你从2万跌到1万至50%的跌幅

40
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你说你要找一个跌50%的机会

41
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那太难了

42
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你知道吗

43
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因为他的公司他在成长

44
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我经常讲几个逻辑啊

45
00:01:28,209 --> 00:01:32,299
我说美国的科技股它为什么很有价值呢

46
00:01:32,299 --> 00:01:34,400
是他真的是砸钱砸出来的

47
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他用人用钱

48
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用时间怼出来的

49
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纳德七姐妹平均上市时间都在30年以上

50
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而且呢他连续千亿美金投入都数10年

51
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把全球最聪明的人薅过来

52
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然后给最高的工资

53
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你去想一下他的护城河

54
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就哪怕甲骨文哈

55
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这种没有那么多技术含量的公司

56
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拿出来也比国内的任何一家科技公司的

57
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技术含量高得多

58
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那何况的话

59
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你现在20多倍的估值

60
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每年的这个分红回购哈

61
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加上这个液晶港都是两位数呀

62
00:02:01,609 --> 00:02:03,969
你看看这万一千倍哪个不是两位数啊

63
00:02:03,969 --> 00:02:04,569
对不对啊

64
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你这个20多倍不贵

65
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所以呢我每一次我看到骂我的人之后呢

66
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我开心的要命了

67
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我说哇哦好机会来了

68
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因为只要有人抱怨你意味着什么

69
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他心态崩了

70
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早有人指责你证明什么

71
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他妈的加杠杆了

72
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那只有人这个天天在打击场上

73
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你用什么他妈的

74
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他心态直接失衡了

75
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他心态失衡的时候就是绝对的人崩塌的时候

76
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人崩塌的时候

77
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就是这个哈带血的筹码出来的时候

78
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所以我每一次都看到人骂我

79
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我就默默的加仓啊

80
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等加完仓之后啊

81
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我就被他拉黑了

82
00:02:38,030 --> 00:02:39,310
各位我跟你讲啊

83
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这个人啊你要记住一句话啊

84
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就是你想占别人便宜没那么容易知道吗

85
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就是别人也不傻

86
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对不对

87
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你看我们做这个价值投资分享

88
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主要的目的是什么呢

89
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是树立我们自己的思路

90
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第二个呢记录自己的心得

91
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第三个呢验证自己的逻辑

92
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就每一事都是免费给大家分享

93
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你可好哇

94
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靠全是赚了钱之后呢

95
00:03:02,500 --> 00:03:03,639
躲得远远的啊

96
00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:05,919
从来不会提赚了钱自己的能力哈

97
00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:07,300
亏了钱是别人的问题

98
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你就想这种人咋聊啊

99
00:03:10,259 --> 00:03:11,219
咋处啊

100
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所以你知道我现在我立了个规矩

101
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你知道吧

102
00:03:12,979 --> 00:03:15,229
就是我一看人品不好的是吧

103
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坚决不交流对吧

104
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你不管说你你你怎么样给我这个再去解释

105
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我不听的是吧

106
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因为一次就够了

107
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因为我们从这个股价跌的时候能看人性对吧

108
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如果你是个价值投资人

109
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你应该喜欢下跌

110
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你同样的钱啊

111
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你买的这个股权更多了哈

112
00:03:30,758 --> 00:03:32,120
你同样的钱是吧

113
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你的这个收益更好了是吧

114
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你看今年是的

115
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我年初我做了一个啊三个这个逻辑嘛

116
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我第一个呢这俩就是进工仓位

117
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AI应用哈

118
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AI芯片半导体

119
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第二个呢就是就是防守嘛

120
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就消费类的嘛

121
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各位放消费类的

122
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我们说了很多呀

123
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德哥是户外啊是吧

124
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消费类的我们讲了茅台啊

125
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消费类的我们讲了很多好公司

126
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你现在涨哪去了

127
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涨天上去了

128
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对不对

129
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哪个不三四十%的收益啊

130
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再说了

131
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我们还有第三个躺平收益哈

132
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就像我刚讲的特别通讯啊对吧

133
00:04:03,568 --> 00:04:04,829
然后那些美国的运营商

134
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哪个不二三十三四十%的收益啊

135
00:04:06,930 --> 00:04:08,389
你就随便认真听听

136
00:04:08,389 --> 00:04:10,650
你就是在科技股暴跌的时候

137
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你随便挪了

138
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超位过来

139
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你又是三四十%

140
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所以今年我们很轻松

141
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50%的这个年化的规划已经做完了

142
00:04:17,579 --> 00:04:18,899
我在年初的时候讲过

143
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我做直播的时候

144
00:04:19,620 --> 00:04:20,819
我还公开的讲是吧

145
00:04:20,819 --> 00:04:23,079
这个按道理的话我是不愿意讲的哈

146
00:04:23,079 --> 00:04:25,600
但是呢考虑到很多人赚钱不容易哈

147
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或者对2020年本身比较迷茫

148
00:04:27,579 --> 00:04:28,418
科技高估嘛

149
00:04:28,418 --> 00:04:30,218
我们本来做了一个策略

150
00:04:30,218 --> 00:04:32,178
这个策略是我们用了几年的时间

151
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每年再去啊

152
00:04:33,718 --> 00:04:34,579
每年在改进啊

153
00:04:34,579 --> 00:04:35,290
升级啊

154
00:04:35,290 --> 00:04:36,750
之后的一个想法

155
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你想一下哈

156
00:04:37,750 --> 00:04:39,550
我们这么去分享

157
00:04:39,550 --> 00:04:41,149
还有很多人骂我靠

158
00:04:41,149 --> 00:04:42,550
我说你这个这种人

159
00:04:42,550 --> 00:04:44,389
你不割他真的是对不起自己啊

160
00:04:44,389 --> 00:04:46,100
真的这人就该亏钱

161
00:04:46,100 --> 00:04:46,959
我跟你讲啊

162
00:04:46,959 --> 00:04:49,180
以我在山东创业这么多年的经历哈

163
00:04:49,180 --> 00:04:50,279
我说这个人啊

164
00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:51,779
这价值观不正的人啊

165
00:04:51,779 --> 00:04:53,720
就是你永远不能同情他

166
00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:54,300
为什么呢

167
00:04:54,300 --> 00:04:55,418
因为你不割他

168
00:04:55,418 --> 00:04:56,879
有的是人哥特是吧

169
00:04:56,879 --> 00:04:58,139
我们是好心好意啊

170
00:04:58,139 --> 00:05:00,059
希望这些人大家都变好

171
00:05:00,059 --> 00:05:01,218
但有的人不这么想

172
00:05:01,218 --> 00:05:01,778
你知道吧

173
00:05:01,778 --> 00:05:02,879
他怎么想的

174
00:05:02,879 --> 00:05:05,560
他觉得他妈的天底下人都都不好

175
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对他好是吧

176
00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:09,389
这就是零和博弈的思维是唯恐天下不乱啊

177
00:05:09,389 --> 00:05:11,509
唯恐天下的自己这个吃亏了啊

178
00:05:11,509 --> 00:05:13,468
唯恐别人这个啊不占别人便宜

179
00:05:13,468 --> 00:05:14,548
就觉得自己没本事

180
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你知道吧

181
00:05:15,009 --> 00:05:16,158
就我经常讲一句话

182
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凭本事借的钱凭什么还

183
00:05:17,718 --> 00:05:18,158
你知道吧

184
00:05:18,158 --> 00:05:19,598
就这些人的心态是这样的

185
00:05:19,598 --> 00:05:21,038
他绝对不会想到去奉献

186
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或者说哎能让大家一起变好

187
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那你算一个好人

188
00:05:25,129 --> 00:05:27,689
你要是经常帮别人去分析东西

189
00:05:27,689 --> 00:05:29,930
那坏人呢他不带啊索取

190
00:05:29,930 --> 00:05:31,959
他也不希望让那些想了解的人

191
00:05:31,959 --> 00:05:33,119
就知道这个事对吧

192
00:05:33,119 --> 00:05:33,959
这就是心态

193
00:05:33,959 --> 00:05:35,399
昨天有个群里兄弟问我

194
00:05:35,399 --> 00:05:38,548
他权哥他这个富人和穷人到底什么区别

195
00:05:38,548 --> 00:05:39,709
我跟你讲哈

196
00:05:39,709 --> 00:05:41,408
这个富人和穷人的区别是什么呢

197
00:05:41,408 --> 00:05:43,769
就富人愿意慢慢的不愿意说话了是吧

198
00:05:43,769 --> 00:05:44,528
就像我说我说的

199
00:05:44,528 --> 00:05:46,769
我这个直播呢就做5年对吧

200
00:05:46,769 --> 00:05:47,908
我已经做了3年多了呀

201
00:05:47,908 --> 00:05:49,740
做5年到点就停是吧

202
00:05:49,740 --> 00:05:52,329
第二个呢就是哼他妈的穷人

203
00:05:52,329 --> 00:05:54,850
你那个价值观正的穷人呢是吃亏的

204
00:05:54,850 --> 00:05:56,089
那价值观不正的穷人呢

205
00:05:56,089 --> 00:05:57,610
他本身也是哈

206
00:05:57,610 --> 00:05:58,569
也是他应该的

207
00:05:58,569 --> 00:05:58,970
你知道吗

208
00:05:58,970 --> 00:06:01,529
就但是呢你当你没有人给你指路的时候

209
00:06:01,529 --> 00:06:04,550
你怎么可能能看到未来呢对吧

210
00:06:04,550 --> 00:06:06,889
绝大多数人是完全没有判别的能力的

211
00:06:06,889 --> 00:06:10,050
所以这个呢我也是想我说这个东西呢

212
00:06:10,050 --> 00:06:12,889
你任何时候你你也只能给一小部分人讲是吧

213
00:06:12,889 --> 00:06:13,930
就价值观一致的人

214
00:06:13,930 --> 00:06:15,279
你给他讲一讲是吧

215
00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:15,759
也很高兴

216
00:06:15,759 --> 00:06:18,079
是八九十%的人其实来讲是能看懂的

217
00:06:18,079 --> 00:06:21,649
然后这两天啊就一起大家哎抄了个点是吧

218
00:06:21,649 --> 00:06:23,990
然后最起码呢今年30%的收益

219
00:06:23,990 --> 00:06:24,949
已经锁定了你

220
00:06:24,949 --> 00:06:27,459
你想想你买这个价格对的就是一个增速

221
00:06:27,459 --> 00:06:27,819
知道吗

222
00:06:27,819 --> 00:06:28,819
你这个每股是这样

223
00:06:28,819 --> 00:06:30,139
你只要跌三四十%

224
00:06:30,139 --> 00:06:33,100
你基本上你空余时间稍微熬一下啊

225
00:06:33,100 --> 00:06:33,819
都能回来

226
00:06:33,819 --> 00:06:35,420
因为他的利润增速就这么多呀

227
00:06:35,420 --> 00:06:36,180
很多人理解不了

228
00:06:36,180 --> 00:06:38,610
你一想想那个云哪个增幅40%

229
00:06:38,610 --> 00:06:40,029
哪个净利润30%

230
00:06:40,029 --> 00:06:41,170
40%的增速

231
00:06:41,170 --> 00:06:42,009
30%的净利

232
00:06:42,009 --> 00:06:43,649
它对应的就是30倍的估值呀

233
00:06:43,649 --> 00:06:44,689
很多人理解不了

234
00:06:44,689 --> 00:06:48,500
但是呢唉不过呢我以后也会慢慢的减少奖吧

235
00:06:48,500 --> 00:06:51,000
让这些人呢其实来讲影响心情的人呢

236
00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:52,139
再少一点对吧

237
00:06:52,139 --> 00:06:54,879
最后呢最后的结果就是不分享对吧

238
00:06:54,879 --> 00:06:56,100
那你钱够了嘛对吧

239
00:06:56,100 --> 00:06:58,000
第二个就是投资体育行投了嘛

240
00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:00,279
第三个就是他娘的对吧

241
00:07:00,279 --> 00:07:03,168
这个关于中文和独乐的问题

242
00:07:03,168 --> 00:07:05,649
内部啊一小部分人讲讲就行了

243
00:07:05,649 --> 00:07:07,028
说白了这些机会呢

244
00:07:07,028 --> 00:07:08,048
嘿嘿嘿

245
00:07:08,048 --> 00:07:09,519
一年只有一次啊

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