【Financial Education】3/4股票崩盘，牛市只是假象？豪掷$4.8万买入4只股

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并不是很多投资者准备好迎接即将在股市爆发的疯狂局面

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所以今天这里出现了新的历史新高

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标普500和纳斯达克再创历史新高，简直令人难以置信

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但这种情况真的非常引人注目

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因为我们基本上面临这样的局面：科技巨头正在拯救市场

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整个股市目前的情况就是这样

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看看谷歌这里

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谷歌对我们来说上涨了约4%

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Meta上涨了13000点

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公开数据显示亚马逊上涨了6700美元

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如果你持有这类股票

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没错，像许多芯片相关概念股

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半导体股票例如

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我说

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这正是你们的黄金时代

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你的投资组合已接近历史新高

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同时在今天这样的交易日拉出热力图

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这是股市的热力图

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对吧

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你看到大市值股票

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这些是绿色区域，权重巨大

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但放眼望去超出巨头之外

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市场其他部分几乎全是红色

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而纳斯达克今日上涨超1%

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你应该这样思考

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好的

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纳斯达克上涨超1%

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这意味着

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我们将看到大量绿色信号

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只有巨头板块呈现绿色

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而其他区域全是红色

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我现在在我的推特页面发布了这个

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如果你想关注我

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X平台

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如果你使用

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链接始终在描述区域

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往下看

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所有我的视频

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但我在今日发布的内容显示

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罗素三千指数

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这基本代表整个股市

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可以这样理解

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约40%的股票下跌30%

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目前估计75%的股票

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不得不问

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人工智能

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今天的情况是

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因为我没时间分析三千只股票

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但AI估计股市75%的股票下跌

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从高点回落双位数百分比

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这个数字对于目前处于历史高位的市场来说简直疯狂

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标普指数

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五百点，这是历史最高点

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纳斯达克指数的历史新高正在显现

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百分之七十五

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股市中约百分之七十五的股票从历史高位下跌超过两位数百分比

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这非常不正常

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正常市场应该呈现这样的状态

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如果谈论股市的历史新高

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你应该看到百分之七十五的股票距离历史高位仅在百分之十以内

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而仅有约两到五百分比的股票

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我们可以称之为

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你知道的，下跌超过百分之十

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这确实是一个

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这才是正常市场应有的状态

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当整个市场都处于历史高位时

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我今天做了这个小表情包

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没错

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这里都是人工智能相关股票

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正享受着巅峰时刻

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然后是市值低于一百亿美元的股票

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仅仅

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你知道的

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此时此刻濒临窒息

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然后是SaaS类股票

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消费类相关股票

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这些股票彻底死气沉沉

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简直在水中溺亡

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它们毫无作为

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你无法

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你无法以低价抛售这些股票

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市盈率再高也无济于事

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这类股票到底怎么了

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我今天在这里投入了四万八千美元

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在股票上

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我们将会分析

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在本视频中

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我在场外持有两百万美元

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以防这些股票继续走弱

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我已准备好行动

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我正在买入特定股票

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关键词是特定股票

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当前非常强势，但

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并非AMD或亚马逊这类

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或类似的股票

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虽然这些无疑是当前热门股

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我是长期投资者

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我实际上看到更有利的长期机会存在于

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呃

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当前炙手可热的股票之外，嗯

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你知道市场变化和市场转向对吧

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你知道一年前

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正是买入amd的好时机

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你可以以百美元以下的价格买到这只股票

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现在仍有赚钱机会存在

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可能涨到一千美元

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我清楚这些股票

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未来几年有四倍五倍十倍的机会

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对吧 好的

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现在让我们开始这个视频

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我们将讨论一些股票

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我要分享我的完整买入观察列表

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我们来谈谈这个

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然后我会分享今天买入的股票

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然后

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接下来我要分析一些华尔街观点

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他们对股票走势的看法

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市场将如何发展

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我想分享我的观点

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基于三小时前发布的分析

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我期待一小时前的那篇报道

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Crawford不担心可能的股市泡沫

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非常期待解读这篇分析

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感谢大家的观看

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你们只需要一个小小的点赞

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那个点赞

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图标

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如果你们能这样做

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这对所有人来说意义重大

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你们已经点了赞

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图标

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非常感谢

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我会尽力让你们及时了解最新动态

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欢迎来到频道的新视频系列

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我听说

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呃

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你知道有些人说

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这个空间的音质不如之前的差

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没关系

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接下来一周或两周我会改进

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新家具正在运来

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我还要在墙上挂些画作

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未来几周音质会越来越好

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感谢大家花时间观看这个视频

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好的

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已经

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开始吧

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顺便请订阅频道

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我的潜在买入

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观察列表

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这里我有什么

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蛋糕 蛋糕

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嗯 总是超值购买

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没错

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就像超值买卖

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全球最高效运营的餐饮公司之一

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与北阿拉花之子合作的巨大增长机会

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这肯定在买入名单上

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观察列表年度

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好的

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每个人都得和AMD比较

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这个对比确实难

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这个对比确实难

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没错

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接下来是 Celsius Holdings

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今天这里股价27美元

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股票遭受重创

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我最爱Celsius的地方

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这是一家能挺过难关的公司

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无论怎样你知道的

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我喜欢能交出成绩的公司

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无论环境如何

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没错

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你看一家公司

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比如蛋糕

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我是说我可以去蛋糕店

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就像我在

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那周六晚上干嘛了

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对吧

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我实际去了北意大利餐厅

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你知道晚上八点半

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店里依然爆满

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挤得满满当当

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人们花钱享受乐趣对吧

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做所有这些事

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然后去花之子

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看到同样的景象

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去芝士蛋糕工厂

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同样景象

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听说消费者这边有疲软

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听说价格问题

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所有负面消息

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但他们依然交出亮眼数据

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没错Celsius

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同样经济形势如何

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汽油价格如何

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Celsius店里依然卖得火爆

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品牌同样如此

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阿兰妮对吧

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所以就是这样

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搭档与梯队

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我

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各位女士们先生们

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帕兰蒂尔

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再次列入可能买入观察名单

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它已在我可能买入的观察名单上多年了

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帕兰蒂尔在梯队中是机会

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女士们先生们

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福特P股已跌至89

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按正常股票计算这会非常高

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正常前向市盈率

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我们可以说十八左右是正常范围

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所以89似乎偏高

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但帕兰蒂尔的增长率极其惊人

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现在其实相对偏低

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当前时间点的帕兰蒂尔

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所以兄弟

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我真心想买入更多帕兰蒂尔股票

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我已经多年没想过要买这只股票了

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我仍在不同投资组合中持有股份

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这十五沙发是个巨大买入

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这里是一家快速增长的公司

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 hymns 全在我的可能

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买入列表

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观察名单已一路跌至24

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嗯

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你知道的

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正在考虑至少建立仓位

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 hymns

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拭目以待是否成真

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但我在考虑中

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欧贝丽丝五三钢铁交易

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给我免费资金

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像艾尔莎的免费资金

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如果你有长期投资视野

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你知道的

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elf哪里能赚下十美元

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可能到43

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也可能到63

240
00:07:15,420 --> 00:07:18,740
我不知道elf未来一个月或三个月走势

241
00:07:18,740 --> 00:07:20,500
但未来三年和六年

242
00:07:20,500 --> 00:07:21,879
我确信知道它的去向

243
00:07:21,879 --> 00:07:23,680
将达两百以上

244
00:07:23,680 --> 00:07:25,660
这是免费资金este lauder

245
00:07:25,660 --> 00:07:26,300
免费资金

246
00:07:26,300 --> 00:07:27,879
艾斯·拉德勒百元以下

247
00:07:27,879 --> 00:07:29,540
值得买入crm

248
00:07:29,540 --> 00:07:31,879
坚信crm潜力巨大

249
00:07:31,879 --> 00:07:33,480
坚信service now潜力巨大

250
00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:36,379
尤其是SaaS相关公司

251
00:07:36,379 --> 00:07:37,860
CRM公司市值达一百六十五亿美元

252
00:07:37,860 --> 00:07:39,160
我觉得他们变得太荒谬了

253
00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:40,288
我觉得他们

254
00:07:40,288 --> 00:07:42,189
你知道我觉得这是

255
00:07:42,189 --> 00:07:44,168
你不用等十年才能等到它们

256
00:07:44,168 --> 00:07:47,839
对CRM这类公司和现在这类公司保持乐观

257
00:07:47,839 --> 00:07:52,079
老实说即使从现在起十二到十八到二十四个月后

258
00:07:52,079 --> 00:07:54,420
人们彻底改变了这些公司的策略并意识到

259
00:07:54,420 --> 00:07:54,939
天啊

260
00:07:54,939 --> 00:07:57,180
这些是市场上最大的下一个机会

261
00:07:57,180 --> 00:07:58,819
但这需要时间来验证

262
00:07:58,819 --> 00:07:59,199
你知道的

263
00:07:59,199 --> 00:08:01,040
AMD的发展用了多年时间

264
00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:01,579
没错

265
00:08:01,579 --> 00:08:04,029
比如AMD曾陷入困境四年之久

266
00:08:04,029 --> 00:08:05,269
然后迎来大幅上涨

267
00:08:05,269 --> 00:08:05,949
然后大家纷纷说

268
00:08:05,949 --> 00:08:06,269
哦是啊

269
00:08:06,269 --> 00:08:06,709
AMD

270
00:08:06,709 --> 00:08:07,389
我们支持AMD

271
00:08:07,389 --> 00:08:08,290
同样适用于美光科技

272
00:08:08,290 --> 00:08:11,379
美光股价一年内上涨了七到八倍

273
00:08:11,379 --> 00:08:12,560
过去一年

274
00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:15,529
我的股票长期处于低迷状态

275
00:08:15,529 --> 00:08:18,029
没错这就是这类股票的常态

276
00:08:18,029 --> 00:08:19,050
然后它们重新活跃起来

277
00:08:19,050 --> 00:08:19,889
然后人们意识到

278
00:08:19,889 --> 00:08:20,050
哦

279
00:08:20,050 --> 00:08:21,069
这真是绝佳机会

280
00:08:21,069 --> 00:08:22,610
现在它已进入我的关注名单

281
00:08:22,610 --> 00:08:23,470
在此时此刻

282
00:08:23,470 --> 00:08:26,509
他们的商业模式正面临根本性挑战

283
00:08:26,509 --> 00:08:28,290
但如果股价足够低

284
00:08:28,290 --> 00:08:29,990
我会入场买入

285
00:08:29,990 --> 00:08:31,910
Hood在76美元时值得关注

286
00:08:31,910 --> 00:08:34,070
我希望看到比特币更多下跌

287
00:08:34,070 --> 00:08:34,629
具体来说

288
00:08:34,629 --> 00:08:36,629
我期待整体市场遭受更多损失

289
00:08:36,629 --> 00:08:37,509
我喜欢买入

290
00:08:37,509 --> 00:08:39,090
如果我要买入Hood股票

291
00:08:39,090 --> 00:08:39,950
我打算买入

292
00:08:39,950 --> 00:08:43,719
当比特币在股市中普遍遭人厌恶时

293
00:08:43,719 --> 00:08:47,700
当前股市整体情绪并不差

294
00:08:47,700 --> 00:08:49,899
因为大市值股票保持稳定

295
00:08:49,899 --> 00:08:51,019
没错标普500指数

296
00:08:51,019 --> 00:08:51,580
创历史新高

297
00:08:51,580 --> 00:08:51,980
纳斯达克

298
00:08:51,980 --> 00:08:52,809
创历史新高

299
00:08:52,809 --> 00:08:54,389
我喜欢买入Hood股票

300
00:08:54,389 --> 00:08:56,029
所以我一直在密切关注

301
00:08:56,029 --> 00:08:57,070
我想要造成损害

302
00:08:57,070 --> 00:08:58,629
你知道我想要市场下跌

303
00:08:58,629 --> 00:09:02,318
我想对整体比特币和加密货币持看空态度

304
00:09:02,318 --> 00:09:04,519
R.H. One Two Eight 很有意思

305
00:09:04,519 --> 00:09:06,119
我讨厌他们资产负债表失衡

306
00:09:06,119 --> 00:09:07,679
如果不是这样的糟糕资产负债表

307
00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:09,200
我现在就要买入一些股份

308
00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:11,480
Bathroom Body Works 在十八美元很有吸引力

309
00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:13,029
我更喜欢十五美元价位

310
00:09:13,029 --> 00:09:13,549
说实话

311
00:09:13,549 --> 00:09:16,090
我相信今年末会涨到五美元以上

312
00:09:16,090 --> 00:09:18,169
无论市场如何变化

313
00:09:18,169 --> 00:09:20,500
美国运通一直值得买入

314
00:09:22,220 --> 00:09:22,879
美国运通

315
00:09:22,879 --> 00:09:23,580
永远买入

316
00:09:23,580 --> 00:09:25,120
就像亚马逊类型的股票

317
00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:26,320
亚马逊与美国运通

318
00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:27,139
这类公司

319
00:09:27,139 --> 00:09:28,179
它们永远值得买入

320
00:09:28,179 --> 00:09:29,440
每次回调

321
00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:30,409
都是礼物

322
00:09:30,409 --> 00:09:32,409
PayPal 仍然让我非常感兴趣

323
00:09:32,409 --> 00:09:34,929
他们刚与Anthropic和Nike合作

324
00:09:34,929 --> 00:09:36,789
显然我认为这是钢铁交易

325
00:09:36,789 --> 00:09:37,610
Foo 实际上

326
00:09:37,610 --> 00:09:39,309
我认为价格极具吸引力

327
00:09:39,309 --> 00:09:40,990
简直超值

328
00:09:40,990 --> 00:09:42,549
但没人关心Fubo

329
00:09:42,549 --> 00:09:45,918
连三十亿美元市值的公司都得不到尊重

330
00:09:45,918 --> 00:09:46,359
就像这只股票

331
00:09:46,359 --> 00:09:47,038
比如Fubo

332
00:09:47,038 --> 00:09:47,639
就在那边

333
00:09:47,639 --> 00:09:48,219
你知道的

334
00:09:48,219 --> 00:09:49,519
现在那边的情况

335
00:09:49,519 --> 00:09:49,899
没人

336
00:09:49,899 --> 00:09:52,299
没人对这类公司感兴趣对吧

337
00:09:53,860 --> 00:09:55,340
四一嗯

338
00:09:55,340 --> 00:09:56,820
如果这只跌到三十几

339
00:09:56,820 --> 00:09:57,879
我得建立仓位

340
00:09:57,879 --> 00:10:01,500
我也喜欢这里，Meta仍在我的潜在买入观察名单

341
00:10:01,500 --> 00:10:02,460
你知道Meta

342
00:10:02,460 --> 00:10:03,139
你知道的

343
00:10:03,139 --> 00:10:04,220
主要问题是

344
00:10:04,220 --> 00:10:06,489
就是开支

345
00:10:06,489 --> 00:10:07,729
开支对吧

346
00:10:07,729 --> 00:10:10,408
在这方面开支实在太高了

347
00:10:10,408 --> 00:10:13,519
但其他一切都很棒

348
00:10:13,519 --> 00:10:14,580
不过财报数据也很重要

349
00:10:14,580 --> 00:10:15,580
资产负债表

350
00:10:15,580 --> 00:10:19,078
他们在接下来的几年里这些芯片会有大量折旧

351
00:10:19,558 --> 00:10:20,918
他们需要回答很多问题

352
00:10:22,038 --> 00:10:23,678
我得回答很多关于

353
00:10:23,678 --> 00:10:24,219
你知道的

354
00:10:24,219 --> 00:10:25,519
这笔钱到底花在哪里

355
00:10:25,519 --> 00:10:27,809
你们未来几年要花多少钱

356
00:10:27,809 --> 00:10:28,690
这些事情

357
00:10:28,690 --> 00:10:30,710
我现在该买哪些股票

358
00:10:30,710 --> 00:10:34,490
今天我要把四万八千美元投到哪里

359
00:10:34,490 --> 00:10:35,549
嗯

360
00:10:35,789 --> 00:10:38,190
这些都是我今天买的股票

361
00:10:38,190 --> 00:10:38,909
我在这里发布了

362
00:10:38,909 --> 00:10:39,769
我的私密股票群组

363
00:10:39,769 --> 00:10:40,990
在面包屑标签页

364
00:10:40,990 --> 00:10:43,679
如果你想关注我

365
00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:44,700
关注我

366
00:10:44,700 --> 00:10:47,200
如果你想加入我的预习跟踪群或回复加入

367
00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:48,919
这将是今天下方的置顶评论

368
00:10:48,919 --> 00:10:49,639
在这段视频中

369
00:10:49,639 --> 00:10:51,259
你可以获得我的所有

370
00:10:51,259 --> 00:10:52,220
当然课程体系

371
00:10:52,220 --> 00:10:53,240
成为股票市场

372
00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:53,659
百万富翁

373
00:10:53,659 --> 00:10:54,019
操作手册

374
00:10:54,019 --> 00:10:54,539
股票期权

375
00:10:54,539 --> 00:10:55,080
精通

376
00:10:55,080 --> 00:10:56,019
投资精通

377
00:10:56,019 --> 00:10:56,840
财务报表

378
00:10:56,840 --> 00:10:57,340
精通

379
00:10:57,340 --> 00:10:58,539
我的估值精通

380
00:10:58,539 --> 00:10:58,879
获取

381
00:10:58,879 --> 00:10:59,700
千倍收益股票

382
00:10:59,700 --> 00:11:01,669
仅限.com的每周独家视频

383
00:11:01,669 --> 00:11:03,250
嗯还能看到月亮

384
00:11:03,250 --> 00:11:04,090
我现在赚到那里了

385
00:11:04,090 --> 00:11:06,578
这个操作是在今天私有投资组合中进行的

386
00:11:06,578 --> 00:11:08,298
我仍然让私密群组知晓

387
00:11:08,298 --> 00:11:09,198
因为这是重大操作

388
00:11:09,198 --> 00:11:10,759
正好四万八千美元

389
00:11:10,759 --> 00:11:11,499
我买入的

390
00:11:11,499 --> 00:11:15,789
买入了178股ELF股票

391
00:11:15,789 --> 00:11:17,129
我们给ELF起了个有趣的名字

392
00:11:17,129 --> 00:11:17,450
现在

393
00:11:17,450 --> 00:11:18,350
他们有很多负面名称

394
00:11:18,350 --> 00:11:19,490
但你等着瞧

395
00:11:19,490 --> 00:11:20,370
你等着瞧

396
00:11:20,370 --> 00:11:21,710
就像D股一样

397
00:11:21,710 --> 00:11:25,590
高级资金粉碎者高级资金毁灭者

398
00:11:25,590 --> 00:11:26,370
天啊

399
00:11:26,370 --> 00:11:28,559
你知道这还没多久以前

400
00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:30,840
人们一直用这些昵称嘲笑AMD

401
00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:31,639
现在我们有了elf

402
00:11:31,639 --> 00:11:32,639
Elf从货架上掉了下来

403
00:11:32,639 --> 00:11:33,360
它曾在那里高高在上

404
00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:33,799
然后它

405
00:11:33,799 --> 00:11:35,580
直接摔在地上自己摔坏了

406
00:11:35,580 --> 00:11:38,450
所以这里有个大买入

407
00:11:38,450 --> 00:11:41,690
Celsius巨额买入五百股

408
00:11:41,690 --> 00:11:43,370
这是十四万美元的波动

409
00:11:43,370 --> 00:11:44,850
这是我今天最大的买入

410
00:11:44,850 --> 00:11:47,429
这体现了我对Celsius的信心

411
00:11:47,429 --> 00:11:48,980
没错CRM

412
00:11:48,980 --> 00:11:50,320
我喜欢这些能量饮料公司

413
00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:52,580
哦我超爱它们，商业模式太棒了

414
00:11:52,580 --> 00:11:55,000
Uh Monster今天大幅上涨

415
00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:56,580
很久很久以前

416
00:11:56,580 --> 00:11:57,159
很久很久以前

417
00:11:57,159 --> 00:11:58,299
大概十五年前

418
00:11:58,299 --> 00:11:59,159
十二年前

419
00:11:59,159 --> 00:12:03,610
CRM Salesforce以八千二百万美元大幅买入

420
00:12:03,610 --> 00:12:07,190
ServiceNow小幅买入二千七百万美元

421
00:12:07,190 --> 00:12:09,750
在ServiceNow和Salesforce之间

422
00:12:09,750 --> 00:12:12,509
我更看好Salesforce

423
00:12:12,509 --> 00:12:14,190
但两者我都很喜欢

424
00:12:14,190 --> 00:12:15,629
但如果你能看清局势

425
00:12:15,629 --> 00:12:16,789
我在等待建仓

426
00:12:16,789 --> 00:12:19,210
我在逐步加仓Salesforce

427
00:12:19,210 --> 00:12:26,460
我喜欢Now的Bill

428
00:12:26,460 --> 00:12:29,480
我更看好Benny

429
00:12:29,480 --> 00:12:30,659
就CEO而言

430
00:12:30,659 --> 00:12:31,659
带领公司发展

431
00:12:31,659 --> 00:12:34,759
我对Salesforce团队更认可

432
00:12:34,759 --> 00:12:37,299
并且估值更优

433
00:12:37,299 --> 00:12:38,059
Salesforce的估值更好

434
00:12:38,059 --> 00:12:41,059
这就是为什么我要重点投资Salesforce

435
00:12:41,059 --> 00:12:43,509
同时关注ServiceNow，这点要记住

436
00:12:43,509 --> 00:12:44,509
美国运通

437
00:12:44,509 --> 00:12:44,830
嗯

438
00:12:44,830 --> 00:12:45,830
这里买入约五股

439
00:12:45,830 --> 00:12:46,990
今日十五万美元波动

440
00:12:46,990 --> 00:12:49,070
今天大幅上涨

441
00:12:49,070 --> 00:12:51,789
买入约七百七十七股

442
00:12:51,789 --> 00:12:55,210
Sofi今日十二万美元波动

443
00:12:55,210 --> 00:12:57,309
这些股票定价极具吸引力

444
00:12:57,309 --> 00:12:58,809
价格非常诱人

445
00:12:58,809 --> 00:12:59,889
让我们查看CRM

446
00:12:59,889 --> 00:13:00,490
好的

447
00:13:00,490 --> 00:13:03,779
让我们查看NOW

448
00:13:03,779 --> 00:13:06,299
我们该查看哪个呢

449
00:13:06,299 --> 00:13:07,139
我们可以拉起

450
00:13:07,139 --> 00:13:09,340
我得查一下美国运通的情况

451
00:13:09,340 --> 00:13:10,200
我们会拉到足够远的位置

452
00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:10,519
好的

453
00:13:10,519 --> 00:13:12,250
所以A选项稍微复杂点

454
00:13:12,250 --> 00:13:13,750
比其他选项稍难一些

455
00:13:13,750 --> 00:13:15,309
关于估值方面

456
00:13:15,309 --> 00:13:16,190
但呃

457
00:13:16,190 --> 00:13:16,610
你知道的

458
00:13:16,610 --> 00:13:17,230
看看这个

459
00:13:17,230 --> 00:13:19,318
你得在翻我的煎饼了

460
00:13:19,318 --> 00:13:20,578
你在开玩笑吗

461
00:13:20,578 --> 00:13:22,458
Salesforce的市盈率降至12倍

462
00:13:22,458 --> 00:13:26,679
Salesforce的前向市盈率12倍

463
00:13:27,759 --> 00:13:29,179
这太疯狂了

464
00:13:29,179 --> 00:13:31,220
这太疯狂了

465
00:13:31,220 --> 00:13:32,559
ServiceNow的市盈率是24倍

466
00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:34,299
这远远不够

467
00:13:34,299 --> 00:13:38,940
对于应该持续多年保持20%以上营收增长的公司来说

468
00:13:38,940 --> 00:13:39,340
在未来

469
00:13:39,340 --> 00:13:41,698
兄弟看看Salesforce

470
00:13:41,698 --> 00:13:44,639
Salesforce不可能跌到这个前向市盈率

471
00:13:44,639 --> 00:13:45,158
当前市盈率

472
00:13:46,158 --> 00:13:47,000
哇

473
00:13:50,078 --> 00:13:51,399
Salesforce明显被低估了

474
00:13:51,399 --> 00:13:51,599
我的意思是

475
00:13:51,599 --> 00:13:56,328
我们讨论的是一家未来五到十年可能成为金融巨头的公司

476
00:13:56,489 --> 00:13:57,269
这太疯狂了

477
00:13:57,269 --> 00:13:58,688
兄弟太疯狂了

478
00:13:58,688 --> 00:14:01,208
这些股票的折扣力度

479
00:14:01,208 --> 00:14:01,688
好的

480
00:14:01,688 --> 00:14:02,288
接下来这个

481
00:14:02,288 --> 00:14:02,688
让我们拉出来看看

482
00:14:02,688 --> 00:14:03,328
美国运通

483
00:14:03,328 --> 00:14:03,729
让我们拉出来

484
00:14:03,729 --> 00:14:04,849
Celsius并拉出来

485
00:14:04,849 --> 00:14:08,759
小精灵从架子上摔了下来

486
00:14:08,759 --> 00:14:09,580
正好掉在地板上

487
00:14:09,580 --> 00:14:10,159
坏了

488
00:14:10,159 --> 00:14:11,779
坏了

489
00:14:12,009 --> 00:14:13,889
我们需要一个小精灵摆件

490
00:14:13,889 --> 00:14:14,350
呃

491
00:14:14,350 --> 00:14:15,149
来拯救我们

492
00:14:15,149 --> 00:14:16,330
关于这个情况

493
00:14:16,330 --> 00:14:16,649
好的

494
00:14:16,649 --> 00:14:17,490
准备好这些了吗

495
00:14:17,490 --> 00:14:19,049
开始吧

496
00:14:20,389 --> 00:14:24,450
美国运通17.4倍市盈率 对优质公司来说太便宜了

497
00:14:24,450 --> 00:14:26,980
应该一直保持在20倍左右

498
00:14:26,980 --> 00:14:29,559
关于美国运通的前向市盈率 好吧

499
00:14:29,559 --> 00:14:31,059
这是全球最好的商业模式之一

500
00:14:31,059 --> 00:14:32,940
而少数未受干扰的之一

501
00:14:32,940 --> 00:14:39,318
Ai精灵精灵未来多年都将保持两位数增长

502
00:14:39,809 --> 00:14:44,870
利润率和每股收益机会远大于营收机会

503
00:14:44,870 --> 00:14:47,279
四大支柱在个位数增长

504
00:14:47,279 --> 00:14:51,440
中个位数增长快了快了

505
00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:56,240
快了快了 不是摄氏度

506
00:14:56,240 --> 00:15:00,519
十七倍市盈率的摄氏度应保持两位数增长

507
00:15:00,519 --> 00:15:05,309
未来还有许多年

508
00:15:05,428 --> 00:15:09,729
当前十七倍前向市盈率太离谱了

509
00:15:09,729 --> 00:15:11,299
这完全不合理

510
00:15:11,299 --> 00:15:13,019
让我们看看华尔街人士

511
00:15:13,019 --> 00:15:15,019
股价承受了一点压力

512
00:15:15,019 --> 00:15:18,779
P和纳斯达克持续强劲上涨

513
00:15:18,779 --> 00:15:21,600
ppi数据强于预期

514
00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:23,059
十年期和三十年期

515
00:15:23,059 --> 00:15:24,580
均创七月以来新高

516
00:15:24,580 --> 00:15:27,279
市场似乎存在明显紧张

517
00:15:27,279 --> 00:15:29,940
在某些市场角落

518
00:15:29,940 --> 00:15:31,919
通胀水平居高不下

519
00:15:31,919 --> 00:15:33,700
战争担忧持续存在

520
00:15:33,700 --> 00:15:35,860
油价大幅上涨

521
00:15:35,860 --> 00:15:39,500
对抗强劲财报和AI叙事

522
00:15:39,500 --> 00:15:41,220
但就这两点

523
00:15:41,220 --> 00:15:42,559
但结合起来

524
00:15:42,559 --> 00:15:44,419
AI叙事依然强劲

525
00:15:44,419 --> 00:15:45,659
但感觉证据不足

526
00:15:45,659 --> 00:15:49,909
AI与财报故事是否大幅胜出

527
00:15:49,909 --> 00:15:50,909
可以说

528
00:15:50,909 --> 00:15:52,110
非常可以说

529
00:15:52,110 --> 00:15:53,950
因为我分析了板块表现

530
00:15:53,950 --> 00:15:59,070
在纳斯达克和标普中

531
00:15:59,070 --> 00:16:02,549
显然

532
00:16:02,549 --> 00:16:04,049
显然你提到的

533
00:16:04,049 --> 00:16:07,389
正是AI交易驱动一切

534
00:16:07,389 --> 00:16:09,279
创造无估值泡沫

535
00:16:09,279 --> 00:16:11,340
价值股表现显著

536
00:16:11,340 --> 00:16:12,019
顺便说一句

537
00:16:12,019 --> 00:16:13,259
你正处于

538
00:16:13,259 --> 00:16:15,230
你正处于前向市盈率的纳斯达克

539
00:16:15,230 --> 00:16:16,590
约三五倍

540
00:16:16,590 --> 00:16:17,850
三七倍

541
00:16:17,850 --> 00:16:20,710
相比历史中期二十倍区间

542
00:16:20,710 --> 00:16:24,970
这全归功于科技股和AI交易

543
00:16:24,970 --> 00:16:27,649
当前仍是试探性行情

544
00:16:27,649 --> 00:16:28,889
因为估值

545
00:16:28,889 --> 00:16:31,109
因为未见明确回报

546
00:16:31,109 --> 00:16:34,469
作为资深投资者

547
00:16:34,469 --> 00:16:35,349
这不是一次投机

548
00:16:35,349 --> 00:16:37,229
对新手投资者而言

549
00:16:37,229 --> 00:16:38,940
他们主要持有指数基金

550
00:16:38,940 --> 00:16:40,399
或者选他们喜欢的名字之一

551
00:16:40,399 --> 00:16:41,120
英伟达

552
00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:43,059
你根本不懂发生了什么

553
00:16:43,059 --> 00:16:45,100
因为逆风与实力并存

554
00:16:45,100 --> 00:16:49,059
这些逆风已超过当前估值

555
00:16:49,059 --> 00:16:50,440
这才是真正的压力

556
00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:52,980
我不知道这个市场会如何发展

557
00:16:52,980 --> 00:16:53,700
我贪婪

558
00:16:53,700 --> 00:16:54,559
我想继续持有

559
00:16:54,559 --> 00:16:56,590
但我也布局了一些边缘机会

560
00:16:56,590 --> 00:16:58,409
因为我确实预期会有战争

561
00:16:58,409 --> 00:17:00,610
伊朗设施将恢复运转

562
00:17:00,610 --> 00:17:02,389
我看不到绕过这个的可能

563
00:17:02,389 --> 00:17:05,589
所以必须为小幅回撤做好准备

564
00:17:05,589 --> 00:17:08,059
但这不会动摇AI交易

565
00:17:08,059 --> 00:17:10,259
可能在低位形成顶点

566
00:17:10,259 --> 00:17:13,119
我认为此时更可能/不可能

567
00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:13,619
我说啊

568
00:17:13,619 --> 00:17:14,160
你知道的

569
00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:14,720
丽兹

570
00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:15,960
确实有很多派对

571
00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:17,170
女士们先生们

572
00:17:19,779 --> 00:17:23,529
有些人喜欢战争

573
00:17:23,529 --> 00:17:24,170
我跑了

574
00:17:24,170 --> 00:17:24,710
好吧

575
00:17:24,710 --> 00:17:26,029
这是最严重的事吗

576
00:17:26,029 --> 00:17:28,858
在市场方面

577
00:17:28,858 --> 00:17:29,538
不

578
00:17:29,538 --> 00:17:30,259
这是什么

579
00:17:30,259 --> 00:17:30,838
成本是多少

580
00:17:30,838 --> 00:17:31,058
哦

581
00:17:31,058 --> 00:17:32,038
油价上涨

582
00:17:32,038 --> 00:17:33,619
好的

583
00:17:34,660 --> 00:17:37,460
人们误以为美国经济如此脆弱

584
00:17:37,460 --> 00:17:39,119
美国经济如此疲软

585
00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:40,500
如此疲软

586
00:17:40,500 --> 00:17:45,059
油价每加仑比去年此时高一两美元

587
00:17:45,059 --> 00:17:46,619
假设去年此时

588
00:17:46,619 --> 00:17:50,210
这会让你破产就像真的

589
00:17:50,210 --> 00:17:53,909
你负担不起任何开支

590
00:17:53,909 --> 00:17:55,328
我们在讨论什么

591
00:17:55,328 --> 00:17:56,209
这什么意思

592
00:17:56,209 --> 00:17:58,929
意味着人们多花

593
00:17:58,929 --> 00:18:00,209
取决于开车频率

594
00:18:00,209 --> 00:18:03,888
每周汽油费增加20到50美元

595
00:18:03,888 --> 00:18:04,788
大概这个区间

596
00:18:04,788 --> 00:18:06,048
其中20到50美元

597
00:18:06,048 --> 00:18:06,548
当然显然

598
00:18:06,548 --> 00:18:07,229
如果是电视

599
00:18:07,229 --> 00:18:07,808
这不归我

600
00:18:07,808 --> 00:18:08,250
你知道吗

601
00:18:08,250 --> 00:18:08,650
是啊

602
00:18:08,650 --> 00:18:09,890
这无关紧要

603
00:18:09,890 --> 00:18:10,930
但你知道的

604
00:18:10,930 --> 00:18:11,410
对于大多数人

605
00:18:11,410 --> 00:18:12,690
他们现在不驾驶vvs

606
00:18:12,690 --> 00:18:15,480
每周多花二十到五十美元

607
00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:20,440
如果你额外只有二十到五十美元每周

608
00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:22,279
你在经济中浪费了很多钱

609
00:18:22,279 --> 00:18:23,769
就现状而言

610
00:18:24,009 --> 00:18:25,009
这不应该像

611
00:18:25,009 --> 00:18:25,609
哦

612
00:18:25,609 --> 00:18:26,569
我们都完了

613
00:18:26,569 --> 00:18:29,960
我们每周得额外花二十五美元油费

614
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:31,819
我们现在在讨论什么

615
00:18:31,819 --> 00:18:32,579
另一个担忧是

616
00:18:32,579 --> 00:18:32,839
哦

617
00:18:32,839 --> 00:18:36,859
这会导致美联储加息

618
00:18:36,859 --> 00:18:39,619
听着美联储

619
00:18:39,619 --> 00:18:41,759
并不是最聪明的

620
00:18:41,759 --> 00:18:45,009
但他们并非完全愚蠢

621
00:18:45,009 --> 00:18:45,779
好的

622
00:18:45,779 --> 00:18:47,940
仅仅因为当前油价高涨

623
00:18:47,940 --> 00:18:50,019
这正影响着CPI

624
00:18:50,019 --> 00:18:53,199
不久也会渗透到PPI中对吧

625
00:18:53,199 --> 00:18:54,759
他们不会因此说

626
00:18:54,759 --> 00:18:54,919
哦

627
00:18:54,919 --> 00:18:56,199
我们必须加息

628
00:18:56,199 --> 00:18:57,298
因为中东局势

629
00:18:57,298 --> 00:18:59,598
一切变得疯狂油价飙升

630
00:18:59,598 --> 00:19:00,539
他们不会

631
00:19:00,539 --> 00:19:04,579
但可以说他们可能不会像预期那样快速降息

632
00:19:04,579 --> 00:19:05,740
但不会像

633
00:19:05,740 --> 00:19:06,380
天啊

634
00:19:06,380 --> 00:19:06,900
价格在上涨

635
00:19:06,900 --> 00:19:08,240
所以我们得加息

636
00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:09,388
他们不至于那么蠢

637
00:19:09,388 --> 00:19:10,288
好的

638
00:19:10,288 --> 00:19:11,548
仍抱有几分信心

639
00:19:11,548 --> 00:19:12,709
对

640
00:19:12,709 --> 00:19:13,429
经济

641
00:19:13,429 --> 00:19:16,460
对世界仍抱有信心

642
00:19:16,460 --> 00:19:17,630
你知道的

643
00:19:17,630 --> 00:19:21,569
比如只要油价上涨一美元

644
00:19:21,569 --> 00:19:23,579
两美元就能摧毁经济

645
00:19:23,579 --> 00:19:24,059
兄弟

646
00:19:24,059 --> 00:19:25,640
我甚至不考虑投资股市

647
00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:30,279
天啊那些关注市场的人

648
00:19:30,279 --> 00:19:32,039
从估值角度看

649
00:19:32,039 --> 00:19:32,900
在某些方面

650
00:19:32,900 --> 00:19:34,630
从价格走势来看

651
00:19:34,910 --> 00:19:36,029
一个立足点

652
00:19:36,029 --> 00:19:37,470
甚至在财报方面

653
00:19:37,470 --> 00:19:42,470
有点在想是否你们提前公布了太多财报

654
00:19:42,470 --> 00:19:44,829
现在你们没有获得显著差异

655
00:19:44,829 --> 00:19:47,348
当前情况与过去相比

656
00:19:47,348 --> 00:19:50,409
比如2021年到2022年

657
00:19:50,409 --> 00:19:50,749
没错

658
00:19:50,749 --> 00:19:51,808
那是失控了

659
00:19:51,808 --> 00:19:55,839
所有通胀都完全失控

660
00:19:55,839 --> 00:19:57,220
我这辈子从未见过

661
00:19:57,220 --> 00:19:58,599
我整个成年时期

662
00:19:58,599 --> 00:20:00,099
甚至我整个人生

663
00:20:00,099 --> 00:20:02,140
自从1989年来到这个世界

664
00:20:02,140 --> 00:20:02,650
对吧

665
00:20:02,650 --> 00:20:08,109
从未见过所有东西价格都疯狂上涨

666
00:20:08,109 --> 00:20:10,309
2021年到2022年期间

667
00:20:10,309 --> 00:20:12,329
现在的情况不是这样

668
00:20:12,329 --> 00:20:14,230
现在的情况不是这样

669
00:20:14,230 --> 00:20:15,950
油价高得离谱

670
00:20:15,950 --> 00:20:16,569
但并非像

671
00:20:16,569 --> 00:20:17,150
天啊

672
00:20:17,150 --> 00:20:19,000
房地产变得极其昂贵

673
00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:20,200
比特币价格飙升

674
00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:22,440
延长线插头价格暴涨

675
00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:24,339
现在所有东西都在飙升

676
00:20:24,339 --> 00:20:24,789
不不

677
00:20:24,789 --> 00:20:26,630
所有东西几年前就飙升了

678
00:20:26,630 --> 00:20:28,730
现在基本没什么变化

679
00:20:28,730 --> 00:20:30,210
能够

680
00:20:30,210 --> 00:20:31,269
呃

681
00:20:31,269 --> 00:20:34,809
长期维持或达到这些水平

682
00:20:34,809 --> 00:20:38,690
吉姆·钦诺昨天提出的观点

683
00:20:38,690 --> 00:20:40,250
我们在之前的对话中提到

684
00:20:40,250 --> 00:20:45,869
我希望你听他关于投资者应如何看待这一切的看法

685
00:20:46,500 --> 00:20:49,180
投资者应该担心什么

686
00:20:49,180 --> 00:20:49,859
关注自身

687
00:20:49,859 --> 00:20:50,420
关于这些

688
00:20:50,420 --> 00:20:53,859
不要支付过高的市盈率

689
00:20:53,859 --> 00:20:55,619
针对周期性 earnings

690
00:20:55,619 --> 00:20:56,759
而非长期 earnings

691
00:20:56,759 --> 00:21:01,569
没错，我们必须区分这一点

692
00:21:01,569 --> 00:21:03,490
哪些获得溢价定价

693
00:21:03,490 --> 00:21:07,109
可能是资本开支热潮后会降温

694
00:21:07,109 --> 00:21:08,549
至少会放缓

695
00:21:08,549 --> 00:21:11,150
哪些具备可持续盈利能力

696
00:21:11,150 --> 00:21:11,849
嗯

697
00:21:11,849 --> 00:21:13,789
来自AI模型

698
00:21:14,769 --> 00:21:18,880
市场显然认为这些是长期趋势

699
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,099
但其实并非周期性

700
00:21:21,099 --> 00:21:23,740
或者你的股票可能不会增值

701
00:21:23,740 --> 00:21:25,880
到你现在的程度你可能会

702
00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:28,960
但如果你知道的话

703
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:31,180
假设陈博士是正确的

704
00:21:31,180 --> 00:21:34,400
这些中的一些可能更具周期性而非长期性

705
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:38,220
届时你可能会面临某种代价

706
00:21:38,460 --> 00:21:45,299
我认为股价增长与这些收益的增速必须放缓

707
00:21:45,299 --> 00:21:49,720
但不需要像你所说的那样带来惩罚

708
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:52,130
这会导致大幅回撤

709
00:21:52,130 --> 00:21:55,450
或者表明收益必须回调并转负

710
00:21:55,450 --> 00:21:57,619
或类似的情况

711
00:21:57,619 --> 00:21:59,759
我认为我们目前的增速

712
00:21:59,759 --> 00:22:03,839
无论是收益还是资本支出最终都必须放缓

713
00:22:03,839 --> 00:22:05,960
如果你无法获得票务

714
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:06,720
你就无法

715
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:10,440
我们刚刚实现了不明显的50%收益增长

716
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:11,579
这不可能

717
00:22:11,579 --> 00:22:13,339
资本支出也难以持续

718
00:22:13,339 --> 00:22:13,720
嗯

719
00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:15,039
在可预见的未来

720
00:22:15,039 --> 00:22:17,400
感觉资本支出是可持续的

721
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:20,000
我们只是不

722
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:20,599
我是说

723
00:22:20,599 --> 00:22:21,779
我猜

724
00:22:21,779 --> 00:22:24,039
按最纯粹的定义它是

725
00:22:24,069 --> 00:22:26,259
但感觉是长期趋势

726
00:22:26,259 --> 00:22:30,079
这些公司似乎只会不断花钱

727
00:22:30,079 --> 00:22:32,160
但这种情况终将改变

728
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:35,460
但谁能知道持续时间 这是讨论的一部分

729
00:22:35,460 --> 00:22:35,720
太

730
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:37,579
这些都是你们需要解决的

731
00:22:37,579 --> 00:22:38,250
是的

732
00:22:38,250 --> 00:22:38,650
嗯

733
00:22:38,650 --> 00:22:40,730
我认为跑道不会很快结束

734
00:22:40,730 --> 00:22:43,869
我认为市场正在应对两种不同力量

735
00:22:43,869 --> 00:22:45,569
我们显然有AI力量

736
00:22:45,569 --> 00:22:47,650
仍充满乐观情绪

737
00:22:47,650 --> 00:22:50,069
仍具备坚实基本面支撑

738
00:22:50,069 --> 00:22:51,970
资本支出根本停不下来

739
00:22:51,970 --> 00:22:55,930
人们在接下来几年可能被指数基金坑了

740
00:22:55,930 --> 00:22:57,930
让我给你描述一个场景

741
00:22:57,930 --> 00:22:59,730
好的听好

742
00:23:00,009 --> 00:23:06,349
假设明年我抛售股票

743
00:23:06,349 --> 00:23:06,910
好的

744
00:23:06,910 --> 00:23:08,069
暂定一年

745
00:23:08,069 --> 00:23:10,299
就说明年开始下滑

746
00:23:10,299 --> 00:23:11,599
所有大科技公司

747
00:23:11,599 --> 00:23:12,500
投入大量资金

748
00:23:12,500 --> 00:23:13,180
所有这些资金

749
00:23:13,180 --> 00:23:14,619
它们之间的流动速度

750
00:23:14,619 --> 00:23:18,259
资金在快速流转并推动收入增长飙升

751
00:23:18,259 --> 00:23:20,700
假设明年开始大幅放缓

752
00:23:20,700 --> 00:23:21,599
好的

753
00:23:21,599 --> 00:23:24,420
显然所有指数开始大幅下跌

754
00:23:24,420 --> 00:23:28,470
原因在于这些是指数中的巨量权重股

755
00:23:28,470 --> 00:23:29,630
所以标普500

756
00:23:29,630 --> 00:23:30,589
可能大幅下跌

757
00:23:30,589 --> 00:23:32,159
大幅下跌对吧

758
00:23:37,919 --> 00:23:38,459
呃

759
00:23:38,459 --> 00:23:38,939
公司

760
00:23:38,939 --> 00:23:41,549
那些仍能保持业绩增长的公司

761
00:23:41,549 --> 00:23:43,809
无论AI交易如何波动

762
00:23:43,809 --> 00:23:45,210
不是 Celsius

763
00:23:45,210 --> 00:23:45,950
LP

764
00:23:45,950 --> 00:23:48,480
人们仍会化妆使用美容产品

765
00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:50,779
无论外界如何变化

766
00:23:50,779 --> 00:23:52,700
人们还是会购买能量饮料

767
00:23:52,700 --> 00:23:54,259
它们都是Celsius

768
00:23:54,259 --> 00:23:55,519
无论发生什么

769
00:23:55,519 --> 00:23:56,740
无论股市是否上涨

770
00:23:56,740 --> 00:23:58,400
或股市是否下跌

771
00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:01,099
人们仍会继续度假

772
00:24:01,099 --> 00:24:02,720
仍会进行这类消费

773
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:04,279
度假村依然繁忙

774
00:24:04,279 --> 00:24:06,349
芝士蛋糕工厂依然繁忙

775
00:24:06,349 --> 00:24:07,329
只是因为

776
00:24:07,329 --> 00:24:07,609
哦

777
00:24:07,609 --> 00:24:07,950
你知道的

778
00:24:07,950 --> 00:24:09,690
AI交易目前并未发生

779
00:24:09,690 --> 00:24:10,990
就像现在

780
00:24:10,990 --> 00:24:13,650
所以这是需要记住的

781
00:24:13,650 --> 00:24:15,150
可能出现巨大分化

782
00:24:15,150 --> 00:24:17,450
这些股票可能沦为被嫌弃的股票

783
00:24:17,450 --> 00:24:19,130
和困境股票

784
00:24:19,130 --> 00:24:24,539
而这些被嫌弃的股票将成为新的宠儿

785
00:24:24,539 --> 00:24:26,299
可能迎来更低的股市

786
00:24:26,299 --> 00:24:28,859
而投资者却在投资

787
00:24:28,859 --> 00:24:31,769
这些公司或将迎来狂欢盛宴

788
00:24:31,769 --> 00:24:32,690
有点像

789
00:24:32,690 --> 00:24:34,888
如果你现在持有半导体股票

790
00:24:34,888 --> 00:24:35,449
兄弟

791
00:24:35,449 --> 00:24:36,509
正是你的黄金时代

792
00:24:36,509 --> 00:24:38,009
如果你重仓AMD

793
00:24:38,009 --> 00:24:38,568
比如我

794
00:24:38,568 --> 00:24:41,088
你已投入数百万美元

795
00:24:41,088 --> 00:24:41,969
兄弟

796
00:24:41,969 --> 00:24:43,169
你正在购置新房

797
00:24:43,169 --> 00:24:44,288
你正在狂欢

798
00:24:44,288 --> 00:24:46,048
这关乎下一辆法拉利

799
00:24:46,048 --> 00:24:46,568
对

800
00:24:46,568 --> 00:24:48,528
如果你不在半导体股票中

801
00:24:48,528 --> 00:24:49,469
现在你正在观察

802
00:24:49,469 --> 00:24:51,799
你可能会问到底怎么回事

803
00:24:51,799 --> 00:24:54,200
如果你不在科技巨头或半导体股票中

804
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:55,079
你四处张望

805
00:24:55,079 --> 00:24:55,799
你就像哥们

806
00:24:55,799 --> 00:24:58,420
股市糟透了，这真让人恼火

807
00:24:58,420 --> 00:24:59,680
所有东西都处于历史高位

808
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:00,799
而我在这里

809
00:25:00,799 --> 00:25:02,279
就像

810
00:25:02,740 --> 00:25:06,409
同样的现象可能在未来一两年发生

811
00:25:06,409 --> 00:25:08,328
指数出现疲软

812
00:25:08,328 --> 00:25:09,788
许多半导体相关股票疲软

813
00:25:09,788 --> 00:25:11,699
甚至部分科技巨头股票

814
00:25:11,699 --> 00:25:14,878
而我们这些投资小公司的投资者

815
00:25:14,878 --> 00:25:17,038
这些公司仍能交出亮眼数据

816
00:25:17,038 --> 00:25:18,599
无论发生什么

817
00:25:18,599 --> 00:25:21,240
会有大量资金流入这些股票

818
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,799
因为那时没人想要科技股

819
00:25:23,799 --> 00:25:26,119
那时没人想要半导体股

820
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:29,079
而那些真正实体经济公司的股票

821
00:25:29,079 --> 00:25:29,519
无论怎样

822
00:25:29,519 --> 00:25:31,599
突然就变成了我关注的麦当劳

823
00:25:31,599 --> 00:25:32,039
最近

824
00:25:32,039 --> 00:25:33,799
麦当劳股价创五年来新低

825
00:25:33,799 --> 00:25:34,119
你知道的

826
00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:34,779
不要惊讶

827
00:25:34,779 --> 00:25:36,980
麦当劳强劲反弹

828
00:25:36,980 --> 00:25:39,470
这就是股市

829
00:25:39,470 --> 00:25:41,950
它会经历这些不同周期

830
00:25:41,950 --> 00:25:43,890
某些股票炙手可热

831
00:25:43,890 --> 00:25:45,440
某些股票逐渐冷却

832
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:46,359
我说啊

833
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:47,920
当科技泡沫破裂时发生了什么

834
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,799
那场面比这次更戏剧化

835
00:25:50,799 --> 00:25:53,259
当这次崩盘发生时

836
00:25:53,259 --> 00:25:54,839
纳斯达克暴跌70%

837
00:25:54,839 --> 00:25:56,759
简直疯狂

838
00:25:56,759 --> 00:25:59,589
但这是否拖累整个经济

839
00:25:59,589 --> 00:26:00,638
这是否阻止了

840
00:26:00,638 --> 00:26:02,199
你知道人们仍在狂欢

841
00:26:02,199 --> 00:26:02,659
没有

842
00:26:02,659 --> 00:26:04,378
你知道下一个狂欢会出现在哪里

843
00:26:04,378 --> 00:26:07,199
实际上出现在许多非科技股中

844
00:26:07,199 --> 00:26:08,609
但可能出现在其他地方

845
00:26:08,609 --> 00:26:09,720
房地产

846
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:11,019
房地产开始狂欢

847
00:26:11,019 --> 00:26:12,759
房地产相关股票开始狂欢

848
00:26:12,759 --> 00:26:14,500
这就是下一轮热潮

849
00:26:14,500 --> 00:26:16,319
随后金融危机爆发了

850
00:26:16,319 --> 00:26:18,159
然后一切都变得糟糕了对吧

851
00:26:18,159 --> 00:26:20,398
所以请记住这一点

852
00:26:20,398 --> 00:26:23,490
接下来的派对很常见

853
00:26:23,490 --> 00:26:25,230
我们现在参加的这场派对

854
00:26:25,230 --> 00:26:26,529
不会永远持续下去

855
00:26:26,529 --> 00:26:27,890
我不知道还能坚持多久

856
00:26:27,890 --> 00:26:30,109
可能六个月十二个月十八个月

857
00:26:30,109 --> 00:26:31,289
三个月三年

858
00:26:31,289 --> 00:26:32,009
我也不知道啊

859
00:26:32,009 --> 00:26:32,659
我们拭目以待

860
00:26:32,659 --> 00:26:33,338
嗯

861
00:26:33,338 --> 00:26:34,878
三年可能有点夸张

862
00:26:34,878 --> 00:26:37,159
但这类股票的行情

863
00:26:37,159 --> 00:26:38,459
正在持续到现在

864
00:26:38,459 --> 00:26:40,500
没错我在说股价

865
00:26:40,500 --> 00:26:42,680
然后盈利最终会达到顶峰

866
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:45,220
在盈利顶峰之前很久

867
00:26:45,220 --> 00:26:46,940
股票就已经开始暴跌

868
00:26:46,940 --> 00:26:47,920
股市价格

869
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:48,660
这些未来的事情

870
00:26:48,660 --> 00:26:50,500
这就是为什么股价大幅上涨

871
00:26:50,500 --> 00:26:53,539
因为大家知道今年明年的盈利会非常惊人

872
00:26:53,539 --> 00:26:55,480
可能甚至到2022或2028年

873
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:57,680
但等到人们开始思考时

874
00:26:57,680 --> 00:26:58,680
股价早已暴跌

875
00:26:58,680 --> 00:26:59,500
哦糟糕了

876
00:26:59,500 --> 00:27:00,680
盈利可能在两年内见顶

877
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:01,400
九月或十月

878
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:02,039
八月或十月

879
00:27:02,039 --> 00:27:03,469
三月或类似时间

880
00:27:03,469 --> 00:27:06,249
我认为这种情况不会很快结束

881
00:27:06,249 --> 00:27:07,949
然后我们还有另一个因素

882
00:27:07,949 --> 00:27:10,720
本周新发现的通胀问题

883
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:13,420
PPI数据非常重要

884
00:27:13,420 --> 00:27:16,500
市场整体并未据此交易

885
00:27:16,500 --> 00:27:17,559
但它们意义重大

886
00:27:17,559 --> 00:27:21,669
因为这对未来消费者的影响很大

887
00:27:21,669 --> 00:27:23,489
这些数据可能是暂时的

888
00:27:23,489 --> 00:27:25,108
我不用‘暂时’这个词

889
00:27:25,108 --> 00:27:26,669
它们可能是暂时的

890
00:27:26,669 --> 00:27:30,689
但仍会影响消费者支出能力

891
00:27:30,689 --> 00:27:32,848
我认为今天市场的动向

892
00:27:32,848 --> 00:27:38,409
你已经看到今早板块领导权的变化

893
00:27:38,449 --> 00:27:43,249
我们终于有通胀数据引发担忧

894
00:27:43,249 --> 00:27:47,630
这之前尚未出现这种情况

895
00:27:47,630 --> 00:27:51,549
如果通胀持续且高于预期

896
00:27:51,549 --> 00:27:56,949
人们开始担心消费端和企业端受冲击

897
00:27:56,949 --> 00:27:59,749
当投资者遇到增长恐慌时

898
00:27:59,749 --> 00:28:02,308
当经济增长可能受限时

899
00:28:02,308 --> 00:28:03,709
我仔细检查了

900
00:28:03,709 --> 00:28:05,789
他们看着自己的

901
00:28:05,789 --> 00:28:06,190
是的

902
00:28:06,190 --> 00:28:06,569
没错

903
00:28:06,569 --> 00:28:08,230
但今天市场开盘时

904
00:28:08,230 --> 00:28:09,869
就在我们得到通胀数据后

905
00:28:09,869 --> 00:28:12,910
你看到消费必需品和医疗保健表现强劲

906
00:28:12,910 --> 00:28:17,200
我们已经从防御板块转向科技板块

907
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:18,720
正在发生两件独立的事

908
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:21,039
我认为你开场的方式完全正确

909
00:28:21,039 --> 00:28:22,220
科技股正在领跑

910
00:28:22,220 --> 00:28:23,099
仍然如此

911
00:28:23,099 --> 00:28:26,799
客户根据美国银行和资金流向数据显示乔

912
00:28:26,799 --> 00:28:28,440
客户大幅买入科技股

913
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:30,849
这是三月中旬以来最大规模

914
00:28:30,849 --> 00:28:35,299
你看英伟达股价创历史新高

915
00:28:35,299 --> 00:28:36,740
可以查看这只股票

916
00:28:36,740 --> 00:28:38,759
他们将在一周后公布财报

917
00:28:38,759 --> 00:28:39,920
如今我们已知

918
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,409
黄仁勋正在中国

919
00:28:42,409 --> 00:28:43,288
与总统会面

920
00:28:43,288 --> 00:28:44,788
临时行程安排

921
00:28:44,788 --> 00:28:45,969
但依然重要

922
00:28:45,969 --> 00:28:48,148
因为这次行程会有结果吗

923
00:28:48,148 --> 00:28:51,880
英伟达会带回什么成果

924
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:55,619
从这次行程中

925
00:28:55,619 --> 00:28:58,000
英伟达正脱离大盘走势

926
00:28:58,000 --> 00:28:58,940
天啊

927
00:28:58,940 --> 00:29:00,359
听着

928
00:29:00,799 --> 00:29:05,929
如果中国市场对英伟达和AMD开放

929
00:29:06,729 --> 00:29:13,549
AMD近期股价深跌至五百点下方

930
00:29:13,549 --> 00:29:15,569
上周涨幅达8.5%

931
00:29:15,569 --> 00:29:17,269
55亿美元引人注目

932
00:29:17,269 --> 00:29:18,349
实际上

933
00:29:19,430 --> 00:29:22,979
中国数据中心收入为零

934
00:29:22,979 --> 00:29:25,699
这是黄仁勋在 Citadel 会议上的原话

935
00:29:25,699 --> 00:29:28,470
去年曾是13亿美元

936
00:29:28,470 --> 00:29:31,490
或许他带回了零以上

937
00:29:31,490 --> 00:29:36,170
这可能是英伟达新高原因

938
00:29:36,170 --> 00:29:40,710
这也可能是苹果新高原因

939
00:29:40,710 --> 00:29:44,849
或许这就是谷歌和亚马逊上周新高原因

940
00:29:44,849 --> 00:29:45,849
历史新高

941
00:29:45,849 --> 00:29:51,210
这是第二季度持续主导的主题

942
00:29:51,210 --> 00:29:53,289
这不是突然出现的

943
00:29:53,289 --> 00:29:58,469
全年市场一直在轮动板块与主题

944
00:29:58,469 --> 00:29:59,929
现在聚焦增长

945
00:29:59,929 --> 00:30:01,108
并追逐动量

946
00:30:01,108 --> 00:30:01,868
就在一天前

947
00:30:01,868 --> 00:30:03,449
我们曾在此讨论

948
00:30:03,449 --> 00:30:09,569
三%的动量下跌是否孤立事件

949
00:30:09,569 --> 00:30:10,609
为期一两天的活动

950
00:30:10,609 --> 00:30:12,910
或者如果它会引发对谷歌的愤怒

951
00:30:12,910 --> 00:30:13,589
亚马逊

952
00:30:13,589 --> 00:30:14,289
微软

953
00:30:14,289 --> 00:30:17,119
这些大公司大量使用的技术

954
00:30:17,119 --> 00:30:19,480
A和D以及英伟达芯片在未来几年

955
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:23,430
你最好希望中国市场保持开放

956
00:30:23,430 --> 00:30:24,710
对于这些公司而言

957
00:30:24,710 --> 00:30:27,489
因为如果他们开放

958
00:30:27,489 --> 00:30:30,808
你得支付比现在更疯狂的费用

959
00:30:30,808 --> 00:30:35,359
AMD的利润率将大幅高于预期

960
00:30:35,359 --> 00:30:36,200
天啊

961
00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:37,680
这里就是事件现场

962
00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:38,920
你只能孤立学习

963
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:40,980
一次孤立的单日事件

964
00:30:40,980 --> 00:30:42,619
并以更强的姿态回归

965
00:30:42,619 --> 00:30:49,289
我不知道谁能有力论证市场扩容

966
00:30:49,289 --> 00:30:53,240
油价达103美元，十年期债逼近45

967
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:54,920
你知道最有趣的是

968
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:56,200
太布伦登了

969
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:57,559
我想让你对此做出反应

970
00:30:57,559 --> 00:31:00,029
威尔斯今天谈到的内容

971
00:31:00,029 --> 00:31:02,490
他们声称的事实

972
00:31:02,490 --> 00:31:07,558
霍尔木兹海峡封锁实际上在助长AI泡沫

973
00:31:07,558 --> 00:31:09,538
在他们看来你无法持有任何资产

974
00:31:09,538 --> 00:31:10,558
但AI

975
00:31:10,558 --> 00:31:12,190
这就是泡沫形成的机制

976
00:31:12,190 --> 00:31:14,309
我们预期有限下行空间

977
00:31:14,309 --> 00:31:15,970
除非增长放缓

978
00:31:15,970 --> 00:31:18,549
核心通胀显著加速

979
00:31:18,549 --> 00:31:21,019
或战争升级为热战

980
00:31:21,019 --> 00:31:22,259
不要对抗趋势

981
00:31:22,259 --> 00:31:25,269
这需要一些什么

982
00:31:25,269 --> 00:31:27,789
这里每位同事都已说过

983
00:31:27,789 --> 00:31:29,710
并进一步深化

984
00:31:29,710 --> 00:31:31,549
不要对抗

985
00:31:31,549 --> 00:31:33,750
不要过于投机

986
00:31:33,750 --> 00:31:35,809
按牌出牌

987
00:31:35,809 --> 00:31:37,609
把握眼前机会

988
00:31:37,609 --> 00:31:39,710
你同意这个观点吗

989
00:31:40,230 --> 00:31:42,269
这毕竟是乔的市场

990
00:31:42,269 --> 00:31:43,569
我们只是身处其中

991
00:31:43,569 --> 00:31:45,829
因为乔抓住了动量

992
00:31:45,829 --> 00:31:47,960
显然他做动量策略

993
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:48,599
嗯

994
00:31:48,599 --> 00:31:49,579
动量效应

995
00:31:49,579 --> 00:31:51,859
动量背后的动能

996
00:31:51,859 --> 00:31:53,970
股市呈抛物线走势

997
00:31:53,970 --> 00:31:55,730
仅看股票走势

998
00:31:55,730 --> 00:31:57,529
即SOXX指数

999
00:31:57,529 --> 00:31:59,410
这就像五二五

1000
00:31:59,410 --> 00:32:00,769
五十天计划

1001
00:32:00,769 --> 00:32:04,329
现在行情已经跌到三百多，大幅下行

1002
00:32:04,329 --> 00:32:05,630
所以就像

1003
00:32:05,630 --> 00:32:06,789
这就是我们当前的位置

1004
00:32:06,789 --> 00:32:11,779
我认为威尔斯、乔和其他人提到的要点是

1005
00:32:11,779 --> 00:32:13,299
在海峡关闭期间

1006
00:32:13,299 --> 00:32:15,859
而问题在于你知道的

1007
00:32:15,859 --> 00:32:19,480
特朗普加上我们所有优秀的CEO现在都在中国

1008
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:20,799
关于海峡的问题

1009
00:32:20,799 --> 00:32:22,839
到底是谁在实际沟通

1010
00:32:22,839 --> 00:32:26,029
因为中国原本接触的是那些人

1011
00:32:26,029 --> 00:32:29,089
而美国接触的人全部已遭杀害

1012
00:32:29,089 --> 00:32:32,170
在伊朗我们有一个分裂的政府

1013
00:32:32,170 --> 00:32:33,930
这确实让局势更加复杂

1014
00:32:33,930 --> 00:32:39,839
但我认为有很大概率会传来利好贸易消息

1015
00:32:39,839 --> 00:32:42,319
毕竟不会让所有CEO

1016
00:32:42,319 --> 00:32:44,680
长途跋涉到中国却一无所获

1017
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:49,038
因此我们可能会看到强劲的复苏迹象

1018
00:32:49,038 --> 00:32:50,298
将从中国传来消息

1019
00:32:50,298 --> 00:32:51,429
棕色贸易

1020
00:32:51,429 --> 00:32:51,969
你知道的

1021
00:32:51,969 --> 00:32:53,588
波音的股价表现非常稳健

1022
00:32:53,588 --> 00:32:56,619
这对美国来说可能是重大利好

1023
00:32:56,619 --> 00:32:57,819
但我要回到

1024
00:32:57,819 --> 00:32:59,220
这毕竟是乔的市场

1025
00:32:59,220 --> 00:33:00,359
我们所有人都身处其中

1026
00:33:00,359 --> 00:33:03,019
因为无法对抗这种趋势的动量

1027
00:33:03,019 --> 00:33:06,000
而这种动量显然非常狭窄

1028
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:10,460
作为从中受益的参与者

1029
00:33:10,460 --> 00:33:11,059
是的

1030
00:33:11,059 --> 00:33:11,599
好的

1031
00:33:11,599 --> 00:33:13,769
在进入下一片段前

1032
00:33:13,769 --> 00:33:15,309
千万不要

1033
00:33:15,309 --> 00:33:16,250
我再说一遍

1034
00:33:16,250 --> 00:33:19,309
不要被动量所迷惑

1035
00:33:19,309 --> 00:33:22,119
保持长期视角

1036
00:33:22,119 --> 00:33:24,259
今天的动量随时可能反转

1037
00:33:24,259 --> 00:33:26,339
明天、后天、下月甚至明年

1038
00:33:26,339 --> 00:33:26,940
好的

1039
00:33:26,940 --> 00:33:28,298
所以你知道的

1040
00:33:28,298 --> 00:33:30,078
AMD拥有全部动量

1041
00:33:30,078 --> 00:33:31,638
Micro拥有全部动量

1042
00:33:31,638 --> 00:33:33,019
英伟达现在占据动量

1043
00:33:33,019 --> 00:33:33,259
没错

1044
00:33:33,259 --> 00:33:36,599
若中美达成协议，市场开盘将大幅上涨

1045
00:33:36,599 --> 00:33:38,160
这对这些公司至关重要

1046
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:40,380
短期内获得动量

1047
00:33:40,380 --> 00:33:41,539
但不要关注短期

1048
00:33:41,539 --> 00:33:43,180
专注长期发展

1049
00:33:43,180 --> 00:33:43,619
你知道吗

1050
00:33:43,619 --> 00:33:46,019
我们获得这些股票就像得到达斯帕拉丁

1051
00:33:46,019 --> 00:33:46,660
比如特斯拉

1052
00:33:46,660 --> 00:33:47,420
就像当年那样对吧

1053
00:33:47,420 --> 00:33:48,220
比如Meta

1054
00:33:48,220 --> 00:33:49,420
我们从

1055
00:33:49,420 --> 00:33:52,079
专注于这些公司的长期发展

1056
00:33:52,079 --> 00:33:54,000
而不是接下来六个月的情况

1057
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:54,980
比如接下来六个月

1058
00:33:54,980 --> 00:33:55,740
我不会感到意外

1059
00:33:55,740 --> 00:33:57,140
如果这些股票持续上涨

1060
00:33:57,140 --> 00:33:58,680
但我正在考虑未来六年的前景

1061
00:33:58,680 --> 00:33:59,309
好的

1062
00:33:59,309 --> 00:33:59,890
所以这就是

1063
00:33:59,890 --> 00:34:00,609
你知道的

1064
00:34:00,609 --> 00:34:01,930
要区分

1065
00:34:01,930 --> 00:34:03,160
当前发生的事情

1066
00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:06,180
短期动量与长期趋势

1067
00:34:06,180 --> 00:34:07,079
绝佳机会

1068
00:34:07,079 --> 00:34:08,119
他和阿尔杰在一起

1069
00:34:08,119 --> 00:34:09,960
她再次来到片场与我同台

1070
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:10,949
很高兴你回来

1071
00:34:10,949 --> 00:34:15,920
你会如何回答不要对抗行情或泡沫风险

1072
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:17,320
你觉得我会说什么

1073
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:18,360
不要对抗行情

1074
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:18,920
没错

1075
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:20,360
你完全不担心可能出现的

1076
00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:21,039
泡沫

1077
00:34:21,039 --> 00:34:21,608
不

1078
00:34:21,608 --> 00:34:22,949
现在还太早

1079
00:34:22,949 --> 00:34:23,409
斯科特

1080
00:34:23,409 --> 00:34:24,148
我是说

1081
00:34:24,148 --> 00:34:25,130
嗯

1082
00:34:25,130 --> 00:34:27,909
所有这些公司的数据都在上升

1083
00:34:27,909 --> 00:34:29,750
所有与AI相关的股票

1084
00:34:29,750 --> 00:34:31,500
数据仍然偏低

1085
00:34:31,500 --> 00:34:32,760
它们会保持低位

1086
00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:36,099
我认为未来两到三年都会低位

1087
00:34:36,099 --> 00:34:41,030
哇 你还记得我之前在二四年来这儿说过

1088
00:34:41,030 --> 00:34:42,489
二五年资本支出将增长

1089
00:34:42,489 --> 00:34:44,449
二六、二七、二八年

1090
00:34:44,449 --> 00:34:46,728
我们现在才到二六年

1091
00:34:46,728 --> 00:34:48,469
二七年资本支出将增长

1092
00:34:48,469 --> 00:34:49,929
我们知道资本支出在增加

1093
00:34:49,929 --> 00:34:51,929
我相信二八年也会增长

1094
00:34:51,929 --> 00:34:54,559
因为我们严重缺乏计算资源

1095
00:34:54,559 --> 00:35:00,289
整个供应链需要适应计算需求

1096
00:35:00,289 --> 00:35:02,590
所以当有人说

1097
00:35:02,590 --> 00:35:06,989
注意当前财报动量和数据的巨大增长

1098
00:35:06,989 --> 00:35:11,409
在科技领域确实如此 要警惕资本支出数据

1099
00:35:11,409 --> 00:35:13,630
因为它们毫无疑问规模巨大

1100
00:35:13,630 --> 00:35:17,630
但最终它们会变得更具周期性而非长期趋势性

1101
00:35:17,630 --> 00:35:19,559
现在你正在描绘一个场景

1102
00:35:19,559 --> 00:35:23,559
并且这个场景距离现在已有数年时间

1103
00:35:24,878 --> 00:35:29,570
这一结果让你认为这几乎是一个长期趋势性变化

1104
00:35:29,570 --> 00:35:32,579
由于我们正在经历的这种转型

1105
00:35:32,579 --> 00:35:36,989
如果你能定义这样一个三到四年的周期

1106
00:35:36,989 --> 00:35:40,170
作为整体经济的长期结构性转变

1107
00:35:40,170 --> 00:35:41,750
以及企业在此方面的支出方式

1108
00:35:41,750 --> 00:35:42,369
人工智能

1109
00:35:42,369 --> 00:35:43,389
这很公平

1110
00:35:43,389 --> 00:35:43,909
是的

1111
00:35:43,909 --> 00:35:46,940
这无疑是长期趋势性的，你看

1112
00:35:46,940 --> 00:35:48,960
这就是我们的机会所在

1113
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:50,780
市场可能像

1114
00:35:50,780 --> 00:35:51,179
我

1115
00:35:51,179 --> 00:35:53,869
我很高兴市场认为这是周期性的

1116
00:35:53,869 --> 00:35:55,130
而非长期趋势性

1117
00:35:55,130 --> 00:35:56,969
因为它给了我们选择的余地

1118
00:35:56,969 --> 00:35:58,289
我不确定市场怎么看

1119
00:35:58,289 --> 00:35:59,949
但有些怀疑论者

1120
00:35:59,949 --> 00:36:00,719
没错而且

1121
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:04,059
我认为这是一场根本性的变革

1122
00:36:04,059 --> 00:36:06,559
在我们实际计算方式上的改变

1123
00:36:06,559 --> 00:36:11,119
以及由此产生的智能水平

1124
00:36:11,119 --> 00:36:12,800
这确实是

1125
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:14,110
这确实是一个

1126
00:36:14,110 --> 00:36:14,909
你知道的

1127
00:36:14,909 --> 00:36:15,869
长期趋势性变化

1128
00:36:15,869 --> 00:36:17,829
这不是周期性变化

1129
00:36:17,829 --> 00:36:19,159
所以是的

1130
00:36:19,159 --> 00:36:20,550
我其实并不太

1131
00:36:20,550 --> 00:36:25,829
让我暂时在千禧股票网展示我的AMD预测

1132
00:36:25,829 --> 00:36:26,150
好的

1133
00:36:26,150 --> 00:36:26,530
我意思是

1134
00:36:26,530 --> 00:36:29,210
我来解释为什么如此令人兴奋

1135
00:36:29,210 --> 00:36:31,699
你知道这是成为

1136
00:36:31,699 --> 00:36:34,400
像AMD这样的公司投资者的最佳时机

1137
00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:37,360
或者像美光、英伟达这样的公司

1138
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:40,159
或者现在其他半导体相关企业

1139
00:36:40,159 --> 00:36:43,739
但让我解释为什么如此令人兴奋

1140
00:36:43,739 --> 00:36:44,750
好的

1141
00:36:44,750 --> 00:36:50,250
我对AMD的基本预测是未来几年平均40%的营收增长

1142
00:36:50,250 --> 00:36:54,760
没错但听我说两个六四

1143
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:57,170
八亿美元可能偏低

1144
00:36:57,170 --> 00:37:01,570
实际情况可能是超过50%

1145
00:37:01,570 --> 00:37:04,090
甚至接近60%今年

1146
00:37:04,090 --> 00:37:04,900
好的

1147
00:37:04,900 --> 00:37:07,340
基于当前CPU需求的变化

1148
00:37:07,340 --> 00:37:09,360
以及显卡市场的表现

1149
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:12,050
他们能够定价的能力

1150
00:37:12,250 --> 00:37:14,750
所以我们可能要从更高的基数开始

1151
00:37:14,750 --> 00:37:15,409
暂且称作

1152
00:37:15,409 --> 00:37:16,130
也许他们会做到五

1153
00:37:16,130 --> 00:37:17,230
今年五亿美元

1154
00:37:17,230 --> 00:37:18,030
好的

1155
00:37:18,030 --> 00:37:21,010
而那40%的数字可能偏低

1156
00:37:21,010 --> 00:37:22,269
丽莎·苏提到三

1157
00:37:22,269 --> 00:37:23,900
五个百分点的增长率

1158
00:37:23,900 --> 00:37:26,639
但现在我们谈论的CPU需求远超预期

1159
00:37:26,639 --> 00:37:27,420
可能翻倍

1160
00:37:27,420 --> 00:37:28,980
远超任何预期

1161
00:37:28,980 --> 00:37:30,079
所以有可能

1162
00:37:30,079 --> 00:37:30,679
非常有可能

1163
00:37:30,679 --> 00:37:34,380
AMD的营收增长将远超平均40%

1164
00:37:34,380 --> 00:37:35,519
在未来几年

1165
00:37:35,519 --> 00:37:38,900
我们可能看到27%的营收增长率

1166
00:37:38,900 --> 00:37:41,639
达到70%或80%

1167
00:37:42,940 --> 00:37:45,559
这些数字令人难以置信

1168
00:37:45,559 --> 00:37:50,230
我们还不确定，这也是现在如此令人兴奋的原因

1169
00:37:50,230 --> 00:37:52,150
因为你知道会比预期好很多

1170
00:37:52,150 --> 00:37:54,099
比任何人预期的都要好，对吧

1171
00:37:54,099 --> 00:37:58,340
这也是为什么如果AMD股价涨到1100到2000美元以上

1172
00:37:58,340 --> 00:38:00,539
不要对此感到惊讶，对吧

1173
00:38:00,539 --> 00:38:02,820
我认为这是相当高的概率

1174
00:38:02,820 --> 00:38:04,960
这就是为什么我要紧握B类股

1175
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:06,579
你看公开账户

1176
00:38:06,579 --> 00:38:07,260
就像我的现金一样

1177
00:38:07,260 --> 00:38:08,059
所有这些AMD

1178
00:38:08,059 --> 00:38:08,599
警长

1179
00:38:08,599 --> 00:38:09,420
不

1180
00:38:09,420 --> 00:38:09,960
不

1181
00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:13,199
我要暂时紧握这些股票

1182
00:38:13,199 --> 00:38:17,519
如果接近千美元价位

1183
00:38:17,519 --> 00:38:18,019
好的

1184
00:38:18,019 --> 00:38:19,460
我可以开始抛售

1185
00:38:19,460 --> 00:38:20,659
但即使现在

1186
00:38:20,659 --> 00:38:22,880
即使现在500美元

1187
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:23,719
我还好

1188
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:24,889
我现在还行

1189
00:38:24,889 --> 00:38:27,168
我持有2555股AMD

1190
00:38:27,168 --> 00:38:28,168
我相信AMD

1191
00:38:28,168 --> 00:38:28,989
公开账户

1192
00:38:28,989 --> 00:38:29,389
拥有

1193
00:38:29,389 --> 00:38:31,449
你知道有很多私人投资组合

1194
00:38:31,449 --> 00:38:32,409
我只是观察

1195
00:38:32,409 --> 00:38:36,849
然后基于增长速度

1196
00:38:36,849 --> 00:38:40,449
我认为股价将大幅上涨

1197
00:38:40,449 --> 00:38:42,989
在极短时间内，但请记住

1198
00:38:42,989 --> 00:38:46,380
大部分涨幅仍会在今年和明年到来

1199
00:38:46,380 --> 00:38:52,619
因此在2027年之后的许多年里，AMD可能不会有盈利

1200
00:38:52,619 --> 00:38:52,780
不过

1201
00:38:52,780 --> 00:38:53,860
所以请记住这一点

1202
00:38:53,860 --> 00:38:54,630
没错

1203
00:38:54,630 --> 00:38:55,849
如果一切完美运行

1204
00:38:55,849 --> 00:38:57,369
股价会上涨

1205
00:38:57,369 --> 00:38:59,469
就像应该那样上涨

1206
00:38:59,469 --> 00:39:01,110
那么未来几年将持续获利

1207
00:39:01,110 --> 00:39:02,849
但我认为它大概会这样发展

1208
00:39:02,849 --> 00:39:05,860
我认为几乎所有收益可能在今年出现

1209
00:39:05,860 --> 00:39:07,380
或许明年还会有一点

1210
00:39:07,380 --> 00:39:08,980
大概就是这样对吧

1211
00:39:08,980 --> 00:39:12,380
之后股价将进入一段平静期

1212
00:39:12,380 --> 00:39:13,599
盈利将继续增长

1213
00:39:13,599 --> 00:39:14,639
但股价会趋于平稳

1214
00:39:14,639 --> 00:39:16,360
这就是它的走势了

1215
00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:17,639
这就是股市的运作方式

1216
00:39:17,639 --> 00:39:19,039
感谢大家一如既往的参与

1217
00:39:19,039 --> 00:39:19,960
非常感谢你们的到来

1218
00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:21,159
当你加入我们的私密群组

1219
00:39:21,159 --> 00:39:21,940
那就是置顶的评论

1220
00:39:21,940 --> 00:39:22,239
就在下方

1221
00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:25,349
我们将发送你的私密群组会员卡

1222
00:39:25,349 --> 00:39:28,818
会寄送一张千枚钢会员卡到你家

1223
00:39:28,818 --> 00:39:34,050
如果你终身加入我们还将获得黑卡

1224
00:39:34,050 --> 00:39:34,750
哦是的

1225
00:39:34,750 --> 00:39:37,690
宝贝，当你加入六位数七位数俱乐部

1226
00:39:37,690 --> 00:39:41,119
我们将寄送你的奖杯，就在上面

1227
00:39:41,119 --> 00:39:43,518
为你的家居增添六位数钻石奖杯

1228
00:39:43,518 --> 00:39:45,820
然后我们有七位数猛兽奖杯

1229
00:39:45,820 --> 00:39:49,079
感谢大家一如既往的支持，祝大家一切顺利

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