这次彻底栽了。【2026-05-13】

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Hello

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大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是sunny

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今天是2026年5月13号星期三

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本周一到周三连着看空

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尤其是看空费城半导体指数

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结果今天发现彻底栽了

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上涨势头停不下来

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还在继续涨

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标普指数今天上涨43.29点

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涨幅0.58%

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大盘再创新高

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市场做多动力充沛

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并没有停下来的迹象

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主力板块的调整只是在昨天持续了半天

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就全部恢复大涨趋势

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诶

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轻易不敢看空啊

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即便看空也不敢做空了

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不过乖离率开始大了

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标普指数早晚是要喘口气儿

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大方向看涨的同时

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短信是随时可以调整

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纳指今天又上涨了314.14点

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涨幅1.2%

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连续阳线强势依旧

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并且再次成为三大指数中最强的一个

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这样的话最好就是顺势看涨

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拆顶是一件吃力不讨好的事

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大银行虽然觉得市场存在泡沫

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但还是乐观看涨

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富国银行认为

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人工智能就是一场泡沫

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但投资者不能与之对抗

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而是要一起吹大泡泡

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流向AI领域的资本开支规模实在过于庞大

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不容忽视

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投资者应该顺势而为

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富国银行分析师说

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终究会有泡沫破裂的那一刻

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但不要逆势而行

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本轮上涨是由于强劲的每股收益推动的

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暂时还看不到太大的下跌风险

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摩根士丹利甚至看涨标普到8300点

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MICHAELWILSON预测

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标普每股收益将继续增长

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2026年的每股收益将达到339美元

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按年同比增长23%

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2027年

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标普EPS继续上升到380美元

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2028年则达到429美元

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意思是说

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这500家公司所有EPS加起来是越来越高

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那对应的就是标普指数应该越涨越高

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大摩据此预测

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标普指数目标位将在8300点

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这个比我预测的7700点高出了600个点

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阳光财经的油管频道

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是2020年的5月份开播的

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已经六周年了

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这6年里绝大多数时间我是看涨做多

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长期满仓

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在前3年我甚至是两倍杠杆融资

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满仓做多

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英伟达和特斯拉

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在2022年熊市时

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我就止盈出局

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换了个股票账户继续操作

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但再也没有上过杠杆

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于是老观众说我错过英伟达

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错过了财务自由的机会

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非常的可惜

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这个教训是深刻的

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美股尤其是科技龙头

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哪怕有中期调整

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最终也常常创出新高

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当我们过度的担心短期的波动时

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为了避免一时的下跌而卖出股票

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最终可能会错过更大的上涨机会

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其实我的公开账户是买入操作多

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卖出操作少

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真正落袋为安

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获利了结的交易并不是很多

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大多数持仓还在继续让盈利奔跑

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舍不得随便卖公开账户

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今天截图时的净值是22.5万

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当天盈利5920

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涨幅2.69%啊

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昨天我截图的是PC端

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所以没有尽职

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有观众就开始计算

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发现盘后什么特斯拉跌的没有扣除

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我得解释一下

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我这截图呢一般是在下午收盘后到05:30之前

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随便一个时间截的

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盘后有多少涨跌被算进去了

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就截到了多少算多少

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这毕竟不是日结

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我并不在乎一个截图的盈亏啊

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每天发出来说一说

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主要就是娱乐效果

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至于今天涨了

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谷歌

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英伟达

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特斯拉都涨得不错

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微软仍在筑底

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软字当头嘛

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和现在硬件火爆行情完全格格不入

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我们需要给微软更多的时间

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circle明天会有一场生死考验

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据说clarity法案将在星期四审议

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万一不通过的话

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这股票得跌不少

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但万一通过的话呢

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这家公司可能就活了

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股市一直涨

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看空之后就调整了

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昨天就才半天

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所以我觉得根本就没有押中全部考题

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大趋势还是向上

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宏观数据可能逐渐会对市场产生影响

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但需要时间的积累

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利空数据多了

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加息预期提高了

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股市进入中期调整的概率就会上升

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今天公布了个PPI

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PPI数据堪称报表

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经季节性调整后

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当月生产者价格指数上涨1.4%

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远高于道琼斯一致预期的0.5%

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和向上修正后的3月份0.7%的涨幅

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PPI同比则大涨6%

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这个数字挺可观的

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能源价格大幅上涨

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所以生产环节的成本提高

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如果剔除了食品和能源核心PPI

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则上涨1%

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也是大超预期和前值

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生产者价格指数是消费者价格指数的先导指标

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如果PPI大涨

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那么生产环节的成本就要向消费端转移

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接下来CPIPCE也跟着反弹

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是可以预期的事件

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现在期权交易所的利率期货

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期权交易已经不怎么压住降息

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而开始有了加息的苗头

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加息是股市中期调整的重要因素

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2022年就是通胀和加息带来的整体熊市

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居安思危

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股市不可能天天涨

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月月涨

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年年涨

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只要看年度K线就知道了

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也是有红有绿

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涨个34年

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跌个一两年

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大方向还是上涨

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但总有下跌的年份

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今年不跌

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明年后年呢

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如果说算力价格永远涨

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云巨头永远有钱扩张资本支出

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数据中心永远有电力

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用不完

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那股市不会跌

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但是树不可能涨到天上

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未来总有一天算力租赁价格下跌

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巨头的资本支出增速放缓

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一切就会发生改变

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芝加哥推出了算力期货

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算力价格必将有涨有跌

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和大宗商品一个样

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芝加哥商品期货交易所正在准备推出GPU

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算力期货

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算力期货将反映GPU的按需租赁价格

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未来有算力需求的公司可以买入算力期货

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用来对冲算力涨价的风险

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手上有大量算力出租的公司

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也可以先卖出算力期货

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用来套期保值

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这东西推出后应该会利好云服务巨头

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他们有大量算力投资时

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就可以先锁定未来算力出租的价格

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从而锁定利润

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不管算力涨了跌了

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他们都可以根据套期保值的差价获得利润

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将算力价格波动的风险转移给市场

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算力期货还有一个功能

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就是数据中心的会计折旧有标准化依据

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如果算力市场已经大跌

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那么数据中心的价值就大幅贬值

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会计上啊

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应该参考市价与成本孰低原则计提减值准备

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这种情况下

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云巨头会暴跌

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对于股票投资者来说

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算力期货出来后

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我们可以非常直观和及时的发现

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算力价格的波动

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一旦算力租赁价格下跌

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整个人工智能板块都会受到波及

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到时候投资半导体公司就要参考算力期货了

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通胀主要来源于油价

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油价大涨是因为中东局势

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美国能源署今天公布

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霍尔木兹海峡能源流量结果如预期一样

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大幅下跌

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今年前三个月约有一天

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1460万桶的原油和石油液体

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通过霍尔木兹海峡运输

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这一数字低于去年同期的2040万桶一天

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也低于2025年第四季度的

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2070万桶一天

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但是经由巴拿马运河和曼德海峡

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的流量略有上升

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说明有一些船改道绕路了

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数据上看

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这两个通道并不能完全替代霍尔木兹海峡

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随着伊朗局势进入一个不战不和

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不打也不谈的状态

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海峡解封时间无法估计

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油价高位将逐渐渗透到核心通胀

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统计口径中的商品和服务

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最终提高通胀水平

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所以利率可能会上涨

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实际上债券市场已经开始看空美国国债

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压住市场利率上行

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作为金融市场定海神针的10年美债

230
00:09:19,799 --> 00:09:21,799
收益率最近见底上涨

231
00:09:21,799 --> 00:09:23,100
收益率越高

232
00:09:23,100 --> 00:09:24,578
国债越跌

233
00:09:24,578 --> 00:09:26,619
这两者是相反的关系

234
00:09:26,619 --> 00:09:30,450
所以做空国债就是做多美债收益率

235
00:09:30,450 --> 00:09:32,309
那收益率上涨

236
00:09:32,309 --> 00:09:33,629
美债下跌

237
00:09:33,629 --> 00:09:37,110
当10年美债开始向5%进发时

238
00:09:37,110 --> 00:09:41,750
市场的无风险利率上升对估值打击是比较大的

239
00:09:41,750 --> 00:09:43,070
中期到长期

240
00:09:43,070 --> 00:09:44,870
美国国债收益率的走向

241
00:09:44,870 --> 00:09:47,828
最终还是会对股市有影响的

242
00:09:47,828 --> 00:09:49,609
这次川普访华

243
00:09:49,609 --> 00:09:51,969
看着不断上涨的债券利率

244
00:09:51,969 --> 00:09:55,399
估计会开口要求中国加大美债投资

245
00:09:55,399 --> 00:09:57,720
川普终于又去中国了

246
00:09:57,720 --> 00:10:01,369
说话间应该就是两国元首高峰会谈了

247
00:10:01,369 --> 00:10:04,408
原来没在名单中的英伟达黄仁勋

248
00:10:04,408 --> 00:10:07,559
最终也被邀请登上了空军一号

249
00:10:07,879 --> 00:10:09,820
川普反问的时间很短

250
00:10:09,820 --> 00:10:11,240
两天就走

251
00:10:16,700 --> 00:10:18,639
而是伊朗战争

252
00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:21,340
中国是伊朗原油最大买家

253
00:10:21,340 --> 00:10:24,120
外交上与伊朗的关系还不错

254
00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:28,169
川普必然是希望中国能提供支持和帮助

255
00:10:28,169 --> 00:10:30,129
对于美股投资来说

256
00:10:30,129 --> 00:10:34,220
中国出面儿可以大大改变当前焦灼的谈判局面

257
00:10:34,220 --> 00:10:36,620
尽快恢复霍尔木兹海峡通航

258
00:10:36,620 --> 00:10:37,720
利好的方面

259
00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:38,870
多一些

260
00:10:40,789 --> 00:10:42,589
对股市也是利好啊

261
00:10:45,589 --> 00:10:47,068
是来做生意的

262
00:10:47,068 --> 00:10:49,220
不是用来搞统一战线的

263
00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:51,820
还将就关税

264
00:10:51,820 --> 00:10:55,649
经贸问题和中国采购订单有一些大的动向

265
00:10:55,649 --> 00:10:57,789
中国应该会买不少东西

266
00:10:57,789 --> 00:10:59,370
波音的飞机啦

267
00:10:59,370 --> 00:11:00,509
美国的大豆

268
00:11:00,509 --> 00:11:02,750
英伟达的芯片等等

269
00:11:02,750 --> 00:11:05,889
高端芯片进口不是非常好预测

270
00:11:05,889 --> 00:11:07,909
美国可能不愿意卖

271
00:11:07,909 --> 00:11:11,299
中国可能不鼓励买英伟达的

272
00:11:11,299 --> 00:11:13,879
中国市场早就当零来处理了

273
00:11:13,879 --> 00:11:16,990
但是如果最先进的芯片可以卖

274
00:11:16,990 --> 00:11:18,929
中国也同意买的话

275
00:11:18,929 --> 00:11:21,129
对英伟达就是重大的利好

276
00:11:21,129 --> 00:11:24,139
所以英伟达今天又在创新高

277
00:11:24,500 --> 00:11:28,200
英伟达创新高应该不是在博弈中国市场的恢复

278
00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:30,789
更多的是赌下周的财报

279
00:11:30,789 --> 00:11:34,190
预计英伟达一季度报表又是非常好

280
00:11:34,190 --> 00:11:35,929
所以股票先涨一波

281
00:11:35,929 --> 00:11:37,700
赌财报超预期

282
00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:40,759
中概股有所上涨

283
00:11:40,759 --> 00:11:42,740
纳斯达克中国金融指数

284
00:11:42,740 --> 00:11:44,750
今天涨了3.89%

285
00:11:44,750 --> 00:11:47,509
政治还是能提振一下经济的

286
00:11:47,509 --> 00:11:51,649
不过这个中概股指数实在是跑不赢宽基指数

287
00:11:51,649 --> 00:11:55,289
这也是我多年来不再点评中概股的原因

288
00:11:55,289 --> 00:11:57,450
明天有一只新股上市

289
00:11:57,450 --> 00:11:59,779
C b r s cerebrous

290
00:11:59,779 --> 00:12:00,799
与OpenAI

291
00:12:00,799 --> 00:12:01,720
签下了一份

292
00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:05,179
价值超过200亿美元的长期算力协议

293
00:12:05,179 --> 00:12:10,259
他的WSE3芯片目前的优点是推理端的效率

294
00:12:10,259 --> 00:12:14,269
在AI从训练转为推理的需求方面似乎有专长

295
00:12:14,269 --> 00:12:16,950
2025年营业收入5.1亿

296
00:12:16,950 --> 00:12:18,809
同比增长76%

297
00:12:18,809 --> 00:12:20,950
增速也是相当高的

298
00:12:20,950 --> 00:12:24,549
CBRS显然有可能成为热门新股

299
00:12:24,549 --> 00:12:27,090
上市后极有可能被炒高

300
00:12:27,090 --> 00:12:29,049
在控制风险的前提下

301
00:12:29,049 --> 00:12:30,809
可以做多思路对待

302
00:12:30,809 --> 00:12:33,919
最后回答几个昨天观众的评论

303
00:12:33,919 --> 00:12:35,940
其中一条挺有意思

304
00:12:35,940 --> 00:12:38,379
记得3Y卖了AMD后

305
00:12:38,379 --> 00:12:40,360
AMD马上翻倍了

306
00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:43,330
现在就等3NI卖高通了

307
00:12:44,159 --> 00:12:48,559
AAMD我卖出的时候赚的小钱不够喝咖啡的

308
00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:51,789
结果现在发现完全踏空了

309
00:12:51,789 --> 00:12:55,850
卖出半导体股票真的是太容易踏空了哈

310
00:12:55,850 --> 00:12:56,909
前有英伟达

311
00:12:56,909 --> 00:12:59,830
后有MD都不能随便卖

312
00:13:00,110 --> 00:13:01,870
高通虽然不怎么样

313
00:13:01,870 --> 00:13:06,950
但是卖了之后又翻倍的概率也完全是存在的

314
00:13:07,149 --> 00:13:08,450
有个观众认为

315
00:13:08,450 --> 00:13:12,529
股市高位风险需要防御型标的用来防身

316
00:13:12,529 --> 00:13:15,730
他问sunny现在有什么防御型股票

317
00:13:15,730 --> 00:13:17,549
可以留意一下

318
00:13:18,190 --> 00:13:20,269
防御股比较不错的啊

319
00:13:20,269 --> 00:13:21,870
最近是多头行情

320
00:13:21,870 --> 00:13:24,669
我觉得电力和零售都不错

321
00:13:24,669 --> 00:13:27,370
经济下行的时候总得用电

322
00:13:27,370 --> 00:13:28,580
总得吃喝

323
00:13:28,580 --> 00:13:30,419
所以呢公用事业啦

324
00:13:30,419 --> 00:13:31,980
零售必须消费

325
00:13:31,980 --> 00:13:33,740
也是穿越经济周期的

326
00:13:33,740 --> 00:13:35,519
具有防御属性

327
00:13:35,519 --> 00:13:38,980
电力股像是美国电力零售股

328
00:13:38,980 --> 00:13:41,100
像COSTCO沃尔玛等

329
00:13:41,100 --> 00:13:42,840
对了还有必须消费

330
00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:45,068
比如KO可乐

331
00:13:45,519 --> 00:13:48,059
防御股并不是与大盘相反

332
00:13:48,059 --> 00:13:50,559
而是说大盘在跌的时候

333
00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:52,220
他们可能会少跌一点

334
00:13:52,220 --> 00:13:54,490
方向其实是一样的

335
00:13:54,490 --> 00:13:56,590
有一个观众昨天说

336
00:13:59,750 --> 00:14:00,950
你再不跌掉点

337
00:14:00,950 --> 00:14:02,549
这个行情就不可持续

338
00:14:02,549 --> 00:14:04,070
玩犊子啦

339
00:14:04,269 --> 00:14:06,269
整个股市74万亿

340
00:14:06,269 --> 00:14:08,549
就差我5000块大洋呗

341
00:14:08,549 --> 00:14:10,129
我要不输点钱

342
00:14:10,129 --> 00:14:12,240
行情就不可持续啦

343
00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:15,289
一点都不make sense好

344
00:14:15,289 --> 00:14:16,950
那今天的节目就分享到这里

345
00:14:16,950 --> 00:14:17,950
感谢大家收看

346
00:14:17,950 --> 00:14:19,190
我们下期节目再见

347
00:14:19,190 --> 00:14:19,779
拜拜

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