决战星期五！NaNa说美股(2026.05.13)

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是5月13号

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周三盘前公布的PPI数据

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比昨天的CPI更加滚烫

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通胀压力逐步扩散

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但是美股依然坚挺

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纳指收涨1.2%

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标普500收涨0.58%

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只有道指微幅收跌

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市场在经历了昨天的CPI洗礼之后呢

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表现出了异常的抗药性

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具体数据显示

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美国4月PPI同比增长6%

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为3年来最快

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增速

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远高于市场预期的4.8%

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和千至4%

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环比增长1.4%

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为4年来新高

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是市场预期0.5%的三倍

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剔除掉食品和能源的核心

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PPI同比增长5.2%

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大幅超出预期的4.3%

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和前至3.8%

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环比增长1%

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而市场预期只有0.3%

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前值0.1%

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商品与服务价格呢都出现了上涨

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今年以来

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生产者价格持续走加

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部分原因是能源成本上升

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还有部分原因呢

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使去年较低的基数效应逐步退出了统计区间

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从而推高了当前的同比读数

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另外尽管这些整体数据触目惊心

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但是报告中部分与美联储重点关注的通胀指标

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个人消费支出价格指数

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PC直接挂钩的分项表现的相对平稳

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直接传导到PC的分项涨幅有限

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这为市场情绪提供了一定的缓冲

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因此数据公布之后

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哈美债收益率直线拉升

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债市的反应比较激烈

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但是美股股指期货反应平淡

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目前最大的震杆马

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想在7450~7500点之间

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而最大的覆盖脉强呢

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在7300点到7350之间

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做市商为了维持风险中性

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在7350点附近提供了海量的被动买盘

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这些伽马就像海绵一样吸收掉所有的利空脉压

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呃

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伽马效应

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将标普500指数限制在较窄的波动区间

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直到本周五的月度期权到期日

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结算之后才会解锁

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目前标普500指数

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远期市盈率大约21.4倍

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并不极端哈

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呃这反映了市场对未来一年每股盈利能力

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持有极度乐观的预期

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愿意为盈利的高增长支付溢价

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尽管CPI与PPI数据爆表

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导致利率压力增加

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但是由于今年一季度财报的表现得非常的好

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盈利预期的调增速度支撑了指数的上涨

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让这个市盈率并没有因为价格飙升而出现

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非理性的膨胀

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虽然整体嗯这个估值较高

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但是主要是由AI科技和能源板块组成的

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金融等周期板块的远期市盈率

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仍维持在14.4左右的相对低位

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华尔街分析师近日纷纷上调

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标普500指数年底目标价

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摩根斯丹利分析师彻底加入死多头阵营的MICHAELWILSON

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将标普500年底目标价从7800点

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上调到了8000点

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并且设定2027年终的目标为8300点

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他认为

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市场已经在估值与广度层面完成了实质性调整

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主要风险被充分定价

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即便美联储不占息

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企业盈利的强劲增长

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也足以驱动股价的回报

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此外川普政府的再平衡政策

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正从结构层面为美股提供支撑

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他所说的这个川普再平衡政策

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指的是一个涵盖了贸易

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税收

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投资与社会收入多个维度的结构性宏观策略

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再平衡呢就意味着

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美国经济正在从依赖廉价进口和大量负债

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转向高内部投资与强盈利增长的模式

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政策引导下的国内增长红利

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足以让标普500的每股收益持续走高啊

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正是这种乐观情绪哈

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这个支撑着整个市场的看涨信念

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目前呢

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美股市场处于自我强化式的逼空反馈循环

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QQ积蓄已接近90度

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垂直角度冲刺呀

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何时跌破这条次月初以来陡峭的上升趋势线

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才意味着这种循环被打破

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市场才会开始寻找新的交易逻辑

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野村证券明星策略师麦克利特表示

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当前美股呢正处于史上最强的伽马挤压状态

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美股可能会在川崎周末会晤之前

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再制造一波向上的脉冲

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然后要到下周才会打开一个潜在的大规模

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降低风险窗口

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因为随着这本周五

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期权集中到期

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与长期支撑市场的机械性买盘呢即将枯竭

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半导体板块是本轮机械性买盘最集中的领域

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也是呃未来回调时的抛售核心

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所以野村证券建议下周开始再通过远期看跌价

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差额

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就是put组合哈来进行对冲保护

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个股方面

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福特股价今天四零涨

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标普500指数

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日K拉出了一根80cm长的阳线

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公司宣布成立全资子公司fold energy

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携手宁德时代技术

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正式杀入大型电池储能市场

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首款标准化集装箱式DC储能系统将落地

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肯达基州格伦戴尔电池工厂

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这意味着

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福特呢正从传统车企向高增长

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能源储能赛道转型

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所以以后咱不能再叫福特汽车了哈

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得改口喊福宁德或者是福斯拉干电池

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这好啊

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干电池有前途

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隔壁燃气电池V1股价都翻了多少倍了是吧

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那看着多眼红啊

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福宁德虽然上车晚了点

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但市场现在最缺的就是AI电力故事

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只要能够蹭上这个热度

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资金就敢给估值哈

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嗯所以今天我也先跳上车了

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NBAS股价呢大涨超15%

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再创历史新高

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公司一季度营收4亿美元

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同比增长了684%

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调整后净亏损1亿美元

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好于预期的亏损1.76亿美元

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受益于全球AI算力需求持续爆发

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公司业绩增长强劲

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这股票比那个COVIVER要更受资金的追捧哈

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如果非得二选一的话

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那还是NBS胜出

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因为他的另一个新儿子AREN的股价呢

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近几天走低

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公司刚刚拿到英伟达21亿美元的投资

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随后就在财报日的隔日宣布

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计划发售20亿美元

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2033年到期的可转换高级票据

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用于资助人工智能

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基础设施扩张以及相关企业用途

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其实这就是另一个COVID嘛

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区别是AREN呢

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除了受到AI板块情绪影响之外呢

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还受比特币价格的影响

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AAMD今天公布的是3F文件显示

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截止3月底

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AAMD持有6万五千五百十六股

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迈威尔科技的股票价值大约650万美元

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根据迈威尔科技最新的收盘价计算

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这些股份目前价值大约为1000多万美元

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文件还显示

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AMD持有一百十五万股呃

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新美亚电子SANM持有571万股

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AI药物创造公司AABSI股票

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另外呢

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呃AAMD还新买入了哈纳度量子技术XNDU

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股票

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价值大约150万美元嗯

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所以这个AMD也学英伟达炒股

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美滋滋赚钱哈

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这消息放出来再去追已经太晚了

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因为股价都已经炒的很高了

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呃这时候追进去就可能会变成接盘侠

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下周谷歌开发者大会召开

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将会公布一系列安卓系统升级

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并且可能会将旗下的GEMINI模型植入安卓

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从一个聊天机器人转变为一个横跨手机浏览器

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汽车和笔记本电脑的操作层

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而此时距离苹果全球开发者大会

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还有几周的时间嗯

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市场预计

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苹果到时候也将展示

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同样基于GEMINI驱动的这个苹果AI系统哈

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所以谷歌抢先一步的这个操作

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可能会给苹果带去压力

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所以谷歌这个是背刺苹果呀

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阿里巴巴呢一季度营收同比增长3%

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增长主要来自云计算和AI业务的强劲表现

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但是整体收入仍然略低于时长

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预期净利润235亿元人民币

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同比增长96%

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表面看盈利增速亮眼

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但是现金流情况并不好看呃

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季度经营现金流只有94亿元

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同比下滑了66%

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自有现金流更是转为负的173亿元

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去年同期还是挣了37.4亿元

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这意味着在该季度嗯

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这公司经营赚回来的钱不足以覆盖资本开支

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背后的原因呢也很明确

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即使零售持续烧钱

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千万app推广投入了大量的营销和买量费用

214
00:09:40,349 --> 00:09:44,299
同时云基础设施建设支出呢大幅增加

215
00:09:44,299 --> 00:09:47,019
这份财报显示信号非常的清晰

216
00:09:47,019 --> 00:09:50,589
就是阿里巴巴在2026年处于战略扩张期

217
00:09:50,589 --> 00:09:53,188
公司愿意接受短期现金流恶化

218
00:09:53,188 --> 00:09:57,259
去换取大模型和云基础设施上的领先地位

219
00:09:57,259 --> 00:10:02,068
虽然自有现金流出现罕见的季度和全年净流出

220
00:10:02,068 --> 00:10:03,708
但是截止季度末

221
00:10:03,708 --> 00:10:06,448
公司仍然持有5208亿元

222
00:10:06,448 --> 00:10:08,188
现金与现金等价物

223
00:10:08,188 --> 00:10:09,889
家底依然非常的厚实

224
00:10:09,889 --> 00:10:13,659
目前的亏损性投入呢仍然在可承受的范围内

225
00:10:13,659 --> 00:10:14,940
另外公司董事会

226
00:10:14,940 --> 00:10:17,820
还批准了大约25亿美元的派息

227
00:10:17,820 --> 00:10:21,029
每股普通股派发0.13125美元

228
00:10:21,029 --> 00:10:22,450
或者换成美股

229
00:10:22,450 --> 00:10:24,529
美国存托股ADS的话

230
00:10:24,529 --> 00:10:26,309
1.05美元股息呢

231
00:10:26,309 --> 00:10:29,980
将会派发给截止6月11号登记在册的股东

232
00:10:29,980 --> 00:10:31,059
但是说实话哈

233
00:10:31,059 --> 00:10:33,568
这份业绩嗯实在不太好看

234
00:10:33,568 --> 00:10:35,129
所以财报刚出来的时候呢

235
00:10:35,129 --> 00:10:37,288
股价盘前先是下跌了

236
00:10:38,708 --> 00:10:42,210
带动了整个中概股板块的情绪回暖

237
00:10:42,210 --> 00:10:45,649
股价才能够在盘中低开高走拉起来

238
00:10:45,649 --> 00:10:47,330
原本不碰中概股的

239
00:10:47,330 --> 00:10:49,769
我前些天也买了一些阿里巴巴的股票

240
00:10:49,769 --> 00:10:53,009
放着就等拉到157美元的

241
00:10:53,009 --> 00:10:54,330
但是现在我就不等了哈

242
00:10:54,330 --> 00:10:56,809
143美元就先出了呃

243
00:10:56,809 --> 00:11:00,990
现在无论是美国还是中国科技巨头财报

244
00:11:00,990 --> 00:11:02,909
其实他们都有一个共同的特点

245
00:11:02,909 --> 00:11:04,889
就是利润增速很强

246
00:11:04,889 --> 00:11:07,570
但是自有现金流急剧下滑

247
00:11:07,570 --> 00:11:11,159
因为大家都在疯狂烧钱投资AI

248
00:11:11,159 --> 00:11:12,919
华尔街预计2026年

249
00:11:12,919 --> 00:11:15,759
美国超大规模科技公司的资本支出呢

250
00:11:18,139 --> 00:11:20,269
几乎是2025年的两倍

251
00:11:20,269 --> 00:11:21,750
2024年的三倍

252
00:11:21,750 --> 00:11:23,070
而到了2027年

253
00:11:23,070 --> 00:11:25,990
这个数字甚至可能冲散1.1万亿美元

254
00:11:25,990 --> 00:11:27,759
数字确实很震撼哈

255
00:11:27,759 --> 00:11:29,399
但是钱从哪里来呢

256
00:11:29,399 --> 00:11:31,009
答案就是借这个

257
00:11:31,009 --> 00:11:33,009
摩根斯丹利预计2026年

258
00:11:33,009 --> 00:11:34,690
美国投资及债券市场

259
00:11:34,690 --> 00:11:36,929
将会迎来史上最繁忙的一年

260
00:11:36,929 --> 00:11:39,850
总发行量约2.25万亿美元

261
00:11:39,850 --> 00:11:41,470
同比增长25%

262
00:11:41,470 --> 00:11:44,889
其中科技行业今年就已经贡献了18%的

263
00:11:44,889 --> 00:11:46,980
美国投资及债券供给

264
00:11:46,980 --> 00:11:50,179
这个是该行业有史以来占比最高的一年哈

265
00:11:50,179 --> 00:11:52,470
是2025年同期的两倍

266
00:11:52,470 --> 00:11:53,789
谷歌今年第二季度

267
00:11:53,789 --> 00:11:56,389
就已经发行了大约500亿美元新债

268
00:11:56,389 --> 00:12:00,190
meta过去六个月呢发行了550亿美元的债券

269
00:12:00,190 --> 00:12:01,129
与此同时

270
00:12:01,129 --> 00:12:03,870
美国大型科技公司的现金储备

271
00:12:03,870 --> 00:12:07,029
正降到过去10年来的最低水平

272
00:12:07,029 --> 00:12:09,049
由华尔街分析师预计

273
00:12:09,049 --> 00:12:09,769
亚马逊

274
00:12:09,769 --> 00:12:10,389
谷歌

275
00:12:10,389 --> 00:12:12,490
微软和ma这四家巨头

276
00:12:12,490 --> 00:12:15,419
今年第三季度的自由现金流加起来

277
00:12:15,419 --> 00:12:18,200
总额将会降到只有40亿美元

278
00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:19,100
而疫情以来

279
00:12:19,100 --> 00:12:20,940
他们过去平均每个季度

280
00:12:20,940 --> 00:12:23,179
能够创造大约450亿美元

281
00:12:23,179 --> 00:12:24,259
只有现金流

282
00:12:24,259 --> 00:12:27,320
如今亚马逊因为它的自由现金流都已经接近

283
00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:29,328
甚至跌入负值区间

284
00:12:29,328 --> 00:12:30,649
除了发债之外呢

285
00:12:30,649 --> 00:12:32,889
这些科技巨头还在通过裁员

286
00:12:32,889 --> 00:12:35,048
削减股东回报等方式

287
00:12:35,048 --> 00:12:38,049
为他们的巨额AI投资提供资金

288
00:12:38,049 --> 00:12:41,929
谷歌自2015年启动股票回购计划以来呢

289
00:12:41,929 --> 00:12:45,000
今年第一季度首次哈没有回购股票

290
00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:47,279
煤炭也暂停了股票回购

291
00:12:47,279 --> 00:12:48,470
这个是呃

292
00:12:48,470 --> 00:12:51,710
meta自2017年开始回购自家股票以来

293
00:12:51,710 --> 00:12:53,980
暂停回购时间最长的一次

294
00:12:53,980 --> 00:12:56,019
与竞争对手不同的是

295
00:12:56,019 --> 00:13:00,139
meta没有云业务来出租他自建的数据中心

296
00:13:00,139 --> 00:13:03,299
所以只能通过裁员和压缩成本

297
00:13:03,299 --> 00:13:06,500
为AI军备竞赛腾出资源哈

298
00:13:06,500 --> 00:13:08,259
就是要么买显卡

299
00:13:08,259 --> 00:13:09,019
要么养人

300
00:13:09,019 --> 00:13:10,379
在二选一之间谈

301
00:13:10,379 --> 00:13:12,409
把钱就拿去买显卡

302
00:13:12,409 --> 00:13:14,950
而且还搞表外结构

303
00:13:14,950 --> 00:13:16,649
以美化资产负债表

304
00:13:16,649 --> 00:13:20,799
将300亿美元债务转移到了一家名为blue o的

305
00:13:20,799 --> 00:13:22,419
这个合资企业中

306
00:13:22,419 --> 00:13:25,460
并且呢持有该合资企业少数股权

307
00:13:25,460 --> 00:13:26,460
所以也就不奇怪

308
00:13:26,460 --> 00:13:29,639
因为他的信用违约互换利差持续走扩

309
00:13:29,639 --> 00:13:30,929
股价疲软了

310
00:13:30,929 --> 00:13:33,169
甲骨文也采用表外结构

311
00:13:33,169 --> 00:13:36,419
公司去年开始现金流就已经转为负了

312
00:13:36,419 --> 00:13:40,940
预计要到2030财年才能够恢复正向现金流

313
00:13:40,940 --> 00:13:43,899
那随着整个AI超级周期

314
00:13:43,899 --> 00:13:47,330
越来越依赖于债务市场的顺畅运转

315
00:13:47,330 --> 00:13:50,009
债券市场呢也和股票市场一样哈

316
00:13:50,009 --> 00:13:54,129
都在高度集中的压住AI建设

317
00:13:54,129 --> 00:13:56,289
这意味着一旦出了问题

318
00:13:56,289 --> 00:13:59,669
比如AI投资迟迟不能够兑现超额回报

319
00:13:59,669 --> 00:14:03,090
或者企业债务增速超过盈利增速

320
00:14:03,090 --> 00:14:05,710
或者中国的AI冲击美国AI

321
00:14:05,710 --> 00:14:07,970
那市场耐心耗尽的话

322
00:14:07,970 --> 00:14:10,409
只有风险就会从科技板块

323
00:14:10,409 --> 00:14:12,700
迅速蔓延到整个金融市场哈

324
00:14:12,700 --> 00:14:16,419
呃但这不会是短期内发生的事情

325
00:14:16,419 --> 00:14:17,840
这一点大家可以放心

326
00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:19,720
当前市场的共识呢

327
00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:25,419
而是未来两到3年仍然是AI价值验证的窗口期

328
00:14:25,419 --> 00:14:27,379
但是在这个过程当中

329
00:14:27,379 --> 00:14:30,679
市场一定还会经历反复怀疑

330
00:14:30,679 --> 00:14:33,690
挤泡沫重新炒作的阶段

331
00:14:33,690 --> 00:14:35,679
情绪会不断的摇摆

332
00:14:35,679 --> 00:14:38,919
所以如果你在今年4月以来的这一波

333
00:14:38,919 --> 00:14:43,568
超级行情中踏空了或者不幸中途卖飞了

334
00:14:43,568 --> 00:14:47,129
不要因为害怕市场永远涨上去

335
00:14:47,129 --> 00:14:49,708
而在最疯狂的时候情绪崩溃

336
00:14:49,708 --> 00:14:51,470
满仓追高进去

337
00:14:51,470 --> 00:14:55,799
犯下和那个德克米勒和类似的错误哈

338
00:14:55,799 --> 00:14:58,120
机会一定还会有的啊

339
00:14:58,120 --> 00:14:59,720
你一定要这个相信

340
00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:01,429
因为在科技巨头

341
00:15:01,429 --> 00:15:03,909
自有现金流持续恶化的背景之下

342
00:15:03,909 --> 00:15:06,850
嗯当下这个formal情绪过后

343
00:15:06,850 --> 00:15:09,269
理性迟早会回归市场

344
00:15:09,269 --> 00:15:10,289
就是这样的哈

345
00:15:10,289 --> 00:15:12,070
当它上涨的时候

346
00:15:12,070 --> 00:15:14,599
铺天盖地的全部都是利好

347
00:15:14,599 --> 00:15:18,839
会涨到让你觉得这个行情永远都不会回调了

348
00:15:18,839 --> 00:15:21,038
但是当市场下跌的时候呢

349
00:15:21,038 --> 00:15:23,578
又会瞬间被利空给淹没

350
00:15:23,578 --> 00:15:26,318
为什么说市场最能放大人性啊

351
00:15:26,318 --> 00:15:29,058
因为这行情这个金钱游戏

352
00:15:29,058 --> 00:15:32,649
它会把人的贪婪和恐惧放大到极致哈

353
00:15:32,649 --> 00:15:36,990
嗯AI超级牛市还会持续至少一两年

354
00:15:36,990 --> 00:15:40,309
但是呢过程中一定会伴随着剧烈波动

355
00:15:40,309 --> 00:15:44,309
也一定会给后来者新的上车机会

356
00:15:44,309 --> 00:15:47,110
至于泡沫什么时候真正破裂

357
00:15:47,110 --> 00:15:51,559
关键在于美联储何时开启加息周期

358
00:15:51,559 --> 00:15:55,120
2000年互联网泡沫的破裂导火索

359
00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:59,039
本质上也是因为1999年6月开始的加息

360
00:15:59,039 --> 00:16:01,200
最终导致2000年3月

361
00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:02,279
纳指崩盘

362
00:16:02,279 --> 00:16:06,500
所以在美联储重启加息周期之前呢

363
00:16:06,500 --> 00:16:10,259
我们不用担心AI泡沫会彻底破裂

364
00:16:10,259 --> 00:16:13,159
即便市场出现大幅回撤哈

365
00:16:13,159 --> 00:16:16,299
那也只是牛市中的估值压缩

366
00:16:16,299 --> 00:16:19,519
板块轮动和情绪洗盘而已

367
00:16:19,519 --> 00:16:21,840
虽然近期美国通胀回升

368
00:16:21,840 --> 00:16:24,899
你看那CPIPPI数据都爆表呃

369
00:16:24,899 --> 00:16:29,039
就有一些激进的交易员开始押注明年加息

370
00:16:29,039 --> 00:16:30,600
但是我认为哈

371
00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:34,889
加息这种讨论更多只是边缘化的噪音

372
00:16:34,889 --> 00:16:40,190
当前美联储无论是降息还是加息门槛都很高

373
00:16:40,190 --> 00:16:40,470
呃

374
00:16:40,470 --> 00:16:42,590
但是未来两年的货币政策

375
00:16:42,590 --> 00:16:45,828
大方向依然是偏向宽松的

376
00:16:45,828 --> 00:16:48,028
在美联储加息之前呢

377
00:16:48,028 --> 00:16:52,820
任何大的回撤都更可能来自普政策的不确定性

378
00:16:52,820 --> 00:16:55,840
而不会是来自于美联储的货币政策

379
00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:58,779
事实上哈美联储比任何人

380
00:16:58,779 --> 00:17:01,820
甚至比川普都要更呵护这个市场

381
00:17:01,820 --> 00:17:04,079
因为维持金融市场稳定

382
00:17:04,079 --> 00:17:07,118
本来就是他最核心的职责之一

383
00:17:07,118 --> 00:17:10,019
所以现在这个指数涨到这个位置

384
00:17:10,019 --> 00:17:11,759
无论它涨还是跌

385
00:17:11,759 --> 00:17:14,420
嗯最重要的就是控制好你的情绪

386
00:17:14,420 --> 00:17:18,549
不要在这个情况之下被市场情绪给裹挟了

387
00:17:18,549 --> 00:17:22,190
你要相信一定会有机会给后来者上车的

388
00:17:22,190 --> 00:17:24,239
不然的话这个市场的上涨

389
00:17:24,239 --> 00:17:27,919
它不可能只是靠原先的一些多头一直推上去

390
00:17:27,919 --> 00:17:30,390
中间一定会有接力赛的行

391
00:17:30,390 --> 00:17:32,329
那今天我们就说到这里

392
00:17:32,329 --> 00:17:33,519
明天见拜拜

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