查理芒格：投资如何永远不赔钱？最重要的原则是…

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我现在再说一次

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复利的第一条规则是

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永远不要非必要的中断它

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而中断复利最快的方法就是亏钱

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这听起来很明显

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太明显了

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就像告诉别人不要把手伸进火里一样

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但这个世界上满是手被烫伤的人

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我投资超过半个世纪了

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我看过市场的起涨崩跌复苏

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然后再次崩跌

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我看过天才破产

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也看过普通人致富

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如果我必须将其归结为一个想法

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那就是那些能幸存下来的人

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是那些擅长避开愚蠢

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更胜于追求卓越的人

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让我举个例子

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1930年代

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我还是个在奥马哈的孩子

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经济大萧条不是历史书中的某个章节

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他是活生生的现实

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曾有大好工作的人在街上卖苹果

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许多家庭失去家园

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你可以用一辆二手车的价格

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买下一个不错的农场

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教训很简单

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如果你背负债务

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当潮水退去时

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你就会淹死

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如果你保持保守

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你就能活下来

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我目睹许多家庭的毁灭

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不是因为运气不好

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而是因为过度自信

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他们以为明天会和昨天一样

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但并不然

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大萧条治愈了我对人类理性的乐观看法

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人们学习的速度并不如你希望的那么快

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到了1970年代

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通货膨胀正活生生地吞噬着人们

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股市崩盘

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油价翻了四倍

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再一次许多所谓的聪明人倾家荡产

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因为他们借了太多钱

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相信了太多事

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并认为自己理应轻松致富

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我不是天才

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我只是谨慎

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我避开债务

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我避开热门股票

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我避开追逐任何时髦的东西

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因此我避免了重大损失

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复利得以年复一年

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日复一日的在时间中悄悄运作

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值得重复一遍

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不亏钱比赚钱更重要

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人们讨厌听到这个

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他们想赢大的

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他们想在周二前就把钱翻三倍

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这种冲动摧毁的财富

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比贫穷本身摧毁的还多

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想想拉斯维加斯的赌徒

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赌城大道上的灯火不是赢家付的钱

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而是那些自以为有套毕生系统的输家付的股票

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市场没什么不同

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只是赌场更大

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穿着更体面罢了

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我记得有一次

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我投资了一家看起来很便宜的公司

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一笔真正的雪茄屁股交易

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你知道的那种只剩一口气

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也许你能免费抽一口的烟地

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那口烟是免费的

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但那股臭味儿却跟了我好几年

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我学会了

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不再仅仅因为看起来便宜就去买垃圾

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便宜的垃圾终究还是垃圾

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那个错误可能让我付出的代价多到

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我懒得去算了

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但他教我的东西胜过任何教科书

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避开愚蠢的代价

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远低于修复愚蠢的代价

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所以如果你想知道如何永不亏钱

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就从避开那些显而易见的灾难开始

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别借你还不起的钱

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别买你看不懂的东西

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别相信那些靠卖你建议来赚钱的人

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并且永远不要相信你比市场更聪明

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你仅仅是活下来就能赚大钱

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沃伦巴菲特和我从不试图快速致富

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我们只是努力不让自己破产

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这个微小的差异经过一生的积累

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会复利成巨大的成果

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所以这就是我的忠告

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忘掉才华

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忘掉聪明

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忘掉仕途

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比房间里的每个人都更胜一筹

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只要少犯点愚蠢的错误

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光是这样就能让你致富

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如果你不喜欢这套说法

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那就去追逐下一个热门股票吧

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市场会很乐意收下你的钱

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如果你想毁掉你的人生

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和你的投资组合

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季度会比任何市场崩盘都更快地完成任务

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嫉妒是最愚蠢的原罪

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为什么

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因为他甚至不会让你感觉良好

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色欲可能很有趣

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贪食至少滋味不错

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傲慢也能让你爽一阵子

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但嫉妒就像你喝下毒药

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却等着对方死去

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我看过许多人明明赚了很不错的钱

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过着很体面的生活

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最终却活得悲惨

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是因为别人做的比他好一点

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他们的邻居开了更好的车

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他们的同学买了更大的房子

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他们的同事致富的速度更快

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突然间他们不再满足

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他们开始承担愚蠢的风险

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只为了追赶这种冲动

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摧毁了投资者

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他们不再坚守合理的原则

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而是去追逐任何看似在别人人身上奏效的东西

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1990年代的科技股

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2006年的房地产

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2021年的加密货币

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年份不同

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愚蠢依旧

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沃伦和我从不浪费时间在嫉妒上

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我们不在乎

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当我们按兵不动时

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别人是否把钱翻了一倍

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我们知道持有正确的资产

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并且按兵不动往往是最明智之举

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这并不容易

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但很简单

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回到网络泡沫时代

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1990年代末期

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每个人都在吹嘘网络股

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我们不加入

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看起来就像傻瓜

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有些股票一年涨了十倍

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我们的朋友账面上富甲一方

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而我们看起来既无聊又老派

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几年之后

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那些纸上富贵大多化为灰烬

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而无聊老派的伯克希尔则继续复利增长

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嫉妒让那些人付出了惨痛的代价

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他们对自己的游戏规则不满意

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于是拙劣地模仿别人

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他们以为可以一步登天

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结果却是跳下了悬崖

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在让人破产之前

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嫉妒早就让人活得悲惨

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我认识一些富豪

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他们无法享受自己的游艇

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只因为别人的游艇更大

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那不是生活

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那是奴役

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我最喜欢的一句话是

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永远会有人比你更快致富

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那又怎样

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这种态度能让你保持清醒

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甚至可能让你活命

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事实是

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大多数由季度驱动的行动

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在短时间内看起来都像是神来之笔

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你走运了

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你吹嘘人们以为你是天才

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然后潮水退去

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你突然间被发现一丝不挂

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身无分文

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尴尬不已

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重点来了

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你不需要赢得每一场比赛

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你只需要避免输得精光

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你今天嫉妒的人

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明天可能就破产了

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而如果你够明智

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你仍会屹立不倒

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所以嫉妒的解药很简单

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停止去看记分板

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专注于你自己的比赛

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这场赛跑很漫长

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而且大多数跑者都无法完赛

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逆唯一的工作就是在赛道上坚持下去

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并且不被自己的愚蠢绊倒

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这就是你赢的方式

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不要去试图跟上那些白痴的脚步

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我犯过很多错误

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有些很小

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有些代价高昂

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还有一两个可能让我损失了巨额财富

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人们喜欢想象

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沃伦和我在象牙塔里整天做出完美的决定

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那是胡扯

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我们搞砸了很多事

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我们只是避开了那种会让你彻底出局的错误

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我至今仍在思考的一个错误是

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低估了某些企业在几十年的复利增长后

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会变得多有价值

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我们错过了当时看起来太贵的东西

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例如在我们买进可口可乐之前

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我们等待了很久

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这不是一场灾难

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因为我们后来还是买了可口可乐

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但如果我们早点行动

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本可以赚的更多

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这是投资者常犯的错误

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过度专注于价格标签而忘记了企业的品质

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只因为便宜就买垃圾

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或者因为看起来昂贵

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就忽视伟大

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两者代价都很高

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让我再说个故事

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多年前我买了一家所谓雪茄屁股公司的股票

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它看起来很便宜

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还剩下最后一口

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账面数字很便宜

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而且我自以为很聪明

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这家公司之所以便宜是有原因的

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他的业务正在腐烂

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我赚了一点钱

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然后又赔掉了

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还浪费了好几年

231
00:09:09,659 --> 00:09:13,200
这些时间本可以用在更好的事物上

232
00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:16,360
那个错误治好了我爱捡烟蒂的毛病

233
00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:19,100
他们也许能给你一口免费的烟

234
00:09:19,100 --> 00:09:21,149
但留下的味道很糟

235
00:09:21,149 --> 00:09:24,850
用合理的价格买一家伟大的企业

236
00:09:24,850 --> 00:09:29,039
远胜过用便宜的价格买一家糟糕的企业

237
00:09:29,039 --> 00:09:32,500
为伟大的企业付出过高的代价

238
00:09:32,500 --> 00:09:37,100
仍然比用过低价格买进垃圾企业更安全

239
00:09:37,100 --> 00:09:38,549
垃圾会归零

240
00:09:38,549 --> 00:09:41,009
伟大的企业会复利增长

241
00:09:41,009 --> 00:09:43,730
真正的错误不是为可口可乐

242
00:09:43,730 --> 00:09:45,600
多付了20%的钱

243
00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:48,850
真正的错误是你从未买进可口可乐

244
00:09:48,850 --> 00:09:51,990
因为你忙着在垃圾堆里寻找便宜货

245
00:09:51,990 --> 00:09:53,909
不过别误会我的意思

246
00:09:53,909 --> 00:09:57,009
纪律和安全边际仍然很重要

247
00:09:57,009 --> 00:10:00,190
我们不会只因为喜欢某个品牌

248
00:10:00,190 --> 00:10:03,190
就到处去付荒谬的价格

249
00:10:03,190 --> 00:10:07,109
但当我们看到一个具有持久力的堡垒型企业时

250
00:10:07,109 --> 00:10:09,808
我们学会了不要耍小聪明

251
00:10:09,808 --> 00:10:12,799
这个教训我花了好几百万才学会

252
00:10:12,799 --> 00:10:17,549
关键的启示是巨额的财富不是来自买进或卖出

253
00:10:17,549 --> 00:10:19,049
而是来自等待

254
00:10:19,049 --> 00:10:22,250
而你无法在一家糟糕的企业上等待

255
00:10:22,250 --> 00:10:24,470
因为时间是垃圾的敌人

256
00:10:24,470 --> 00:10:27,029
时间只跟伟大的企业做朋友

257
00:10:27,029 --> 00:10:28,490
所以当人们问我

258
00:10:28,490 --> 00:10:32,068
查理你犯过最严重的错误是什么

259
00:10:32,068 --> 00:10:34,009
我通常会告诉他们

260
00:10:34,009 --> 00:10:35,870
不是我赔掉的钱

261
00:10:35,870 --> 00:10:40,509
而是那些我因为低估了显而易见的事实

262
00:10:40,509 --> 00:10:42,409
而从未赚到的钱

263
00:10:42,409 --> 00:10:44,568
如果你想避免亏钱

264
00:10:44,568 --> 00:10:46,808
不要只顾着避开灾难

265
00:10:46,808 --> 00:10:51,409
你还得避免在平庸的事物上浪费数10年的光阴

266
00:10:51,409 --> 00:10:53,889
这是一个悄无声息的错误

267
00:10:53,889 --> 00:10:56,220
他掠夺投资者的财富

268
00:10:56,220 --> 00:10:58,259
远胜过任何崩盘

269
00:10:58,259 --> 00:11:01,549
市场会惩罚没有耐心的人

270
00:11:01,549 --> 00:11:05,879
但他同样会惩罚那些盲目寻找便宜

271
00:11:05,879 --> 00:11:09,320
或者认为价格比品质更重要的人

272
00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:10,809
在投资中

273
00:11:10,809 --> 00:11:13,990
你不是因为聪明而获得回报

274
00:11:13,990 --> 00:11:17,690
你是因为持续不愚蠢而获得回报

275
00:11:17,690 --> 00:11:21,450
及早领悟到这一点就价值数百万

276
00:11:21,450 --> 00:11:25,259
如果你想知道为什么大多数人会亏钱

277
00:11:25,259 --> 00:11:26,960
那不是运气不好

278
00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:28,580
是过度自信

279
00:11:28,580 --> 00:11:30,620
他们高估自己的认知

280
00:11:30,620 --> 00:11:32,210
并据此行动

281
00:11:32,210 --> 00:11:34,950
我看过许多人坐在会议室里

282
00:11:34,950 --> 00:11:37,450
笃信自己能战胜全世界

283
00:11:37,450 --> 00:11:40,240
他们会说这次不一样了

284
00:11:40,240 --> 00:11:42,720
或者旧规则不再适用了

285
00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:44,789
每当我听到这些话

286
00:11:44,789 --> 00:11:47,230
我就知道麻烦要来了

287
00:11:47,230 --> 00:11:48,830
自信是好的

288
00:11:48,830 --> 00:11:50,700
傲慢是致命的

289
00:11:50,700 --> 00:11:55,840
大多数人没有意识到自己的能力有多么有限

290
00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:57,950
他们读了几篇文章

291
00:11:57,950 --> 00:11:59,830
和经纪人聊了聊

292
00:11:59,830 --> 00:12:02,210
或者看了某个电视名嘴

293
00:12:02,210 --> 00:12:05,250
就突然认为自己在一个下午之内

294
00:12:05,250 --> 00:12:07,529
同时搞懂了石油工业

295
00:12:07,529 --> 00:12:11,450
科技股和外汇财富就是这样消失的

296
00:12:11,450 --> 00:12:13,529
沃伦和我能保持富有

297
00:12:13,529 --> 00:12:15,789
是靠着承认我们有所不知

298
00:12:15,789 --> 00:12:17,450
这听起来很乏味

299
00:12:17,450 --> 00:12:18,940
甚至有点软弱

300
00:12:18,940 --> 00:12:23,269
但是知道自己的极限是投资最强大的优势之一

301
00:12:23,269 --> 00:12:24,850
以航空业为例

302
00:12:24,850 --> 00:12:27,230
我们避开了他们几十年

303
00:12:27,230 --> 00:12:30,318
他们看起来就像死亡陷阱

304
00:12:30,318 --> 00:12:31,558
资本密集

305
00:12:31,558 --> 00:12:33,859
周期性工会问题

306
00:12:33,859 --> 00:12:37,049
燃料成本全都不利于投资者

307
00:12:37,049 --> 00:12:39,429
我们知道自己不够聪明

308
00:12:39,429 --> 00:12:42,609
无法在那段混乱中挑出赢家

309
00:12:42,609 --> 00:12:44,688
所以我们置身事外

310
00:12:44,688 --> 00:12:48,309
这一个决定让我们免于上世纪的灾难

311
00:12:48,309 --> 00:12:51,929
当然后来我们还是买了一些航空股

312
00:12:51,929 --> 00:12:54,149
以为这个行业已经改变了

313
00:12:54,149 --> 00:12:55,318
那是个错误

314
00:12:55,318 --> 00:12:56,979
这个行业没有变

315
00:12:56,979 --> 00:12:59,139
只是我们放松了警惕

316
00:12:59,139 --> 00:13:00,379
幸运的是

317
00:13:00,379 --> 00:13:02,460
我们没有押上全部家

318
00:13:02,460 --> 00:13:04,710
当我们赔了点小钱

319
00:13:04,710 --> 00:13:05,710
耸耸肩

320
00:13:05,710 --> 00:13:06,889
继续前进

321
00:13:06,889 --> 00:13:08,909
教训是过度自信

322
00:13:08,909 --> 00:13:12,450
会让你在该抽身时反而加倍下注

323
00:13:12,450 --> 00:13:15,330
承认无知则能让你留得青山

324
00:13:15,330 --> 00:13:17,210
在改日再战

325
00:13:17,210 --> 00:13:19,629
投资中最危险的一句话是

326
00:13:19,629 --> 00:13:21,460
我不可能看走眼

327
00:13:21,460 --> 00:13:25,000
在你认为自己不可能失手的那一刻

328
00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:26,720
你已经失守了

329
00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:29,980
想想1990年代末的网络泡沫

330
00:13:29,980 --> 00:13:32,379
每个人都自以为是天才

331
00:13:32,379 --> 00:13:34,740
大学生在宿舍里欢呼

332
00:13:34,740 --> 00:13:37,809
计程车司机对乘客侃侃而谈

333
00:13:37,809 --> 00:13:40,509
人们说利润已经不重要了

334
00:13:40,509 --> 00:13:44,529
那种妄想正是由过度自信所助长的

335
00:13:44,529 --> 00:13:47,750
而他的结局就和所有妄想一样

336
00:13:47,750 --> 00:13:49,409
下场凄惨

337
00:13:49,409 --> 00:13:50,929
我不介意

338
00:13:50,929 --> 00:13:54,659
因为避开我不懂的东西而显得愚蠢

339
00:13:54,659 --> 00:13:55,840
我很介意

340
00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:59,259
因为在我一开始就没搞懂的事情上

341
00:13:59,259 --> 00:14:01,889
压下重注而显得愚蠢

342
00:14:01,889 --> 00:14:03,970
解药是谦逊

343
00:14:03,970 --> 00:14:06,470
不是那种假装谦虚

344
00:14:06,470 --> 00:14:09,450
实则自命不凡的假谦逊

345
00:14:09,450 --> 00:14:11,710
而是真正的谦逊

346
00:14:11,710 --> 00:14:14,490
室内总会说我不知道

347
00:14:14,490 --> 00:14:16,809
而且我也不需要知道

348
00:14:16,809 --> 00:14:20,019
这才是永不亏钱的真正秘诀

349
00:14:20,019 --> 00:14:21,929
承认你有所不知

350
00:14:21,929 --> 00:14:25,929
并且不要在你的能力圈之外玩游戏

351
00:14:25,929 --> 00:14:29,110
你不需要急打每一颗投来的球

352
00:14:29,110 --> 00:14:32,029
你只需要在你懂得球上挥棒

353
00:14:32,029 --> 00:14:34,669
所以如果你想避免亏钱

354
00:14:34,669 --> 00:14:38,929
就抛弃那种你必须对每件事都有看法的想法

355
00:14:38,929 --> 00:14:41,470
没人在乎你对石油期货

356
00:14:41,470 --> 00:14:44,450
加密货币或日本利率有什么看法

357
00:14:44,450 --> 00:14:46,659
如果你没有深入理解它

358
00:14:46,659 --> 00:14:47,580
就闭上嘴

359
00:14:47,580 --> 00:14:48,440
坐着别动

360
00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:51,879
光是这份纪律能帮你保住的钱

361
00:14:51,879 --> 00:14:54,769
就比1000个聪明的意见还多

362
00:14:54,769 --> 00:15:00,139
人们亏钱的一大主因是他们像雇员一样思考

363
00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:04,419
他们为下一季度

364
00:15:04,419 --> 00:15:08,830
下一次升迁或下一笔奖金做最佳化

365
00:15:08,830 --> 00:15:12,610
而不是为未来20年职业主义做规划

366
00:15:12,610 --> 00:15:16,289
人们喜欢用各种错误的方式打安全牌

367
00:15:16,289 --> 00:15:18,429
他们保护自己的饭碗

368
00:15:18,429 --> 00:15:20,139
而不是保护企业

369
00:15:20,139 --> 00:15:22,220
他们保护自己的自尊

370
00:15:22,220 --> 00:15:24,320
而不是保护自己的资本

371
00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:26,059
我待过够多的企业

372
00:15:26,059 --> 00:15:29,769
董事会深知这套游戏是怎么运作的

373
00:15:29,769 --> 00:15:34,509
高级主管们滔滔不绝地谈论策略和成长计划

374
00:15:34,509 --> 00:15:36,409
但他们真正关心的是

375
00:15:36,409 --> 00:15:38,070
他们的股票选择权

376
00:15:38,070 --> 00:15:41,669
能否在现实追上他们之前兑现

377
00:15:41,669 --> 00:15:45,029
这就是为什么公司会在泡沫顶端

378
00:15:45,029 --> 00:15:47,649
花费数10亿回购股票

379
00:15:47,649 --> 00:15:50,789
却在经济谷底削减投资

380
00:15:50,789 --> 00:15:52,870
他们是为长生而战

381
00:15:52,870 --> 00:15:54,850
不是为生存而战

382
00:15:59,110 --> 00:16:01,289
我们不在乎我们的决定

383
00:16:01,289 --> 00:16:04,039
在下一季度看起来是否风光

384
00:16:04,039 --> 00:16:06,480
我们关心的是20年后

385
00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:09,480
他们是否依然看起来是好决定

386
00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:11,440
以西施糖果为例

387
00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:14,200
我们在1972年买下它

388
00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:17,399
当时很多分析师都说我们买贵了

389
00:16:17,399 --> 00:16:22,500
如果我们当时像那些职业主义的高管一样思考

390
00:16:22,500 --> 00:16:28,110
我们就会担心媒体或分析师下一季会怎么说

391
00:16:30,710 --> 00:16:32,909
我们知道这个品牌很强大

392
00:16:32,909 --> 00:16:34,269
顾客很忠诚

393
00:16:34,269 --> 00:16:36,049
护城河真实存在

394
00:16:36,049 --> 00:16:37,529
半个世纪过去了

395
00:16:37,529 --> 00:16:39,269
那笔被嫌贵的交易

396
00:16:39,269 --> 00:16:42,210
看起来是我们做过最棒的投资之一

397
00:16:42,210 --> 00:16:46,649
现在拿这和那些经营大多数上市公司的人

398
00:16:46,649 --> 00:16:47,610
比较一下

399
00:16:47,610 --> 00:16:50,309
他们会很乐意地追逐并购

400
00:16:50,309 --> 00:16:53,570
只为了让自己的帝国看起来更大

401
00:16:53,570 --> 00:16:56,210
即使那些并购案很糟糕

402
00:16:56,210 --> 00:16:57,149
为什么

403
00:16:57,149 --> 00:16:58,970
因为更大的公司意味着

404
00:16:58,970 --> 00:17:01,750
他们能拿到更高的薪水和更多的声望

405
00:17:03,799 --> 00:17:06,480
所有权人在乎的是资本回报率

406
00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:08,960
不是年报上的办公室评述

407
00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:10,339
另一个例子是报

408
00:17:10,339 --> 00:17:12,380
也回到20世纪中期

409
00:17:12,380 --> 00:17:14,299
他们是了不起的生意

410
00:17:14,299 --> 00:17:18,779
高利润区域独占稳固的广告基础

411
00:17:22,180 --> 00:17:24,729
会问我们该如何适应

412
00:17:24,729 --> 00:17:27,528
我们该如何保住我们的护城河

413
00:17:27,528 --> 00:17:31,009
而一个职业主义者只会乘着浪潮

414
00:17:31,009 --> 00:17:34,009
直到自己的退休金安全入袋

415
00:17:34,009 --> 00:17:36,710
结果是整个产业被掏空

416
00:17:36,710 --> 00:17:39,359
只留下股东收拾残局

417
00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:41,460
如果你想避免亏钱

418
00:17:41,460 --> 00:17:43,619
每次你看一家企业时

419
00:17:43,619 --> 00:17:45,400
都问自己一个问题

420
00:17:48,819 --> 00:17:50,900
还是职业主义者的思维

421
00:17:50,900 --> 00:17:53,210
如果他们是所有权人

422
00:17:53,210 --> 00:17:56,329
他们会牺牲今天来打造明天

423
00:17:56,329 --> 00:17:58,509
如果他们是职业主义者

424
00:17:58,509 --> 00:18:02,609
他们会牺牲明天来让今天看起来风光

425
00:18:02,609 --> 00:18:06,690
我看过才华横溢的工程师和销售人员

426
00:18:06,690 --> 00:18:08,630
打造出伟大的产品

427
00:18:08,630 --> 00:18:11,579
结果却被职业主义的经理人

428
00:18:11,579 --> 00:18:14,809
为了追逐季度数字毁掉一切

429
00:18:14,809 --> 00:18:19,630
我也看过无聊的糖果制造商悄悄地复利

430
00:18:19,630 --> 00:18:22,210
增长成数10亿美元的企业

431
00:18:22,210 --> 00:18:24,890
因为所有权人在乎的是顾客

432
00:18:24,890 --> 00:18:26,410
不是头条新闻

433
00:18:26,410 --> 00:18:30,150
那么这对你身为一个投资者有什么启示

434
00:18:30,150 --> 00:18:33,049
不要只看资产负债表和成长率

435
00:18:33,049 --> 00:18:34,369
要看诱因

436
00:18:34,369 --> 00:18:35,739
修出诱因

437
00:18:35,739 --> 00:18:38,038
我就能秀出结果给你看

438
00:18:38,038 --> 00:18:40,778
如果你压注在职业主义者身上

439
00:18:40,778 --> 00:18:42,618
当你的钱消失时

440
00:18:42,618 --> 00:18:44,210
别感到惊讶

441
00:18:46,809 --> 00:18:48,940
当耐心让你致富时

442
00:18:48,940 --> 00:18:50,660
也别感到惊讶

443
00:18:50,660 --> 00:18:52,490
市场看似复杂

444
00:18:52,490 --> 00:18:55,930
但有一半的时间他只是伪装后的人性

445
00:18:55,930 --> 00:18:58,170
而人性是不会改变的

446
00:19:01,279 --> 00:19:02,519
公司会建设

447
00:19:02,519 --> 00:19:05,650
所以不要玩职业主义者的游戏

448
00:19:05,650 --> 00:19:07,829
要玩所有权人的游戏

449
00:19:07,829 --> 00:19:10,630
这就是你避免损失的方法

450
00:19:10,630 --> 00:19:13,109
如果你真的想保持富有

451
00:19:13,109 --> 00:19:15,150
或者至少避免破产

452
00:19:15,150 --> 00:19:17,319
学会避开三样东西

453
00:19:17,319 --> 00:19:20,599
债务戏剧性和愚蠢的人

454
00:19:20,599 --> 00:19:22,259
先从债务说起

455
00:19:22,259 --> 00:19:24,859
债务就像一把上了膛的枪

456
00:19:24,859 --> 00:19:26,880
即使你自认很小心

457
00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:28,819
他还是可能杀了你

458
00:19:28,819 --> 00:19:30,400
一个坏的转折

459
00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:31,769
一场危机

460
00:19:31,769 --> 00:19:33,769
一个意料之外的事件

461
00:19:33,769 --> 00:19:35,869
你突然就资不抵债了

462
00:19:35,869 --> 00:19:38,029
我在大萧条时看过

463
00:19:38,029 --> 00:19:40,569
1970年代又看一次

464
00:19:40,569 --> 00:19:43,079
2008年又再看一次

465
00:19:43,079 --> 00:19:44,299
活下来的人

466
00:19:44,299 --> 00:19:48,480
都是那些没有借自己还不起的钱的人

467
00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:51,599
杠杆在好光景时看起来很聪明

468
00:19:51,599 --> 00:19:54,119
在坏时光里根本是自杀

469
00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:55,500
再来戏剧性

470
00:19:55,500 --> 00:19:58,779
我说的戏剧性是指不必要的复杂性

471
00:19:58,779 --> 00:20:00,779
混乱和情绪包袱

472
00:20:00,779 --> 00:20:02,380
我见过整间公司

473
00:20:02,380 --> 00:20:06,420
因为高管之间无法忍受彼此的夙愿而被摧毁

474
00:20:06,420 --> 00:20:10,130
我见过投资者因为无法抗拒行动的快感

475
00:20:10,130 --> 00:20:13,809
追逐快速致富的骗局而毁了自己

476
00:20:13,809 --> 00:20:16,480
戏剧性会浪费精力

477
00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:18,140
蒙蔽判断力

478
00:20:18,140 --> 00:20:20,720
让你看不见简单的真相

479
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:22,720
商业应该是无聊的

480
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:24,660
投资应该是无聊的

481
00:20:24,660 --> 00:20:27,880
如果你需要刺激去赌马吧

482
00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:32,240
接着是愚蠢的人像躲瘟疫一样躲开他们

483
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:33,509
人生太短

484
00:20:33,509 --> 00:20:35,509
不该把自己和无能

485
00:20:35,509 --> 00:20:39,089
不诚实或品行恶劣的人绑在一起

486
00:20:39,089 --> 00:20:41,529
我宁愿和一家有诚实

487
00:20:41,529 --> 00:20:44,750
有能力的人经营的平庸企业合作

488
00:20:44,750 --> 00:20:48,829
也不愿和一家由骗子经营的伟大企业打交道

489
00:20:48,829 --> 00:20:53,159
坏的合伙人能比坏的市场更快地毁掉你

490
00:20:53,159 --> 00:20:57,059
以1991年的所罗门兄弟丑闻为例

491
00:20:57,059 --> 00:20:59,240
这家公司差点倒闭

492
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:02,619
只因为一个交易员鲁莽不诚实的行为

493
00:21:02,619 --> 00:21:04,259
沃伦必须介入

494
00:21:04,259 --> 00:21:06,159
才让他免于灾难

495
00:21:06,159 --> 00:21:10,739
那起事件再次教会我们一个愚蠢或不诚实的人

496
00:21:10,739 --> 00:21:13,240
能让整艘船陷于危难

497
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:14,900
避开愚蠢的人

498
00:21:14,900 --> 00:21:18,079
不代表你要让自己身边都是天才

499
00:21:18,079 --> 00:21:20,950
而是指和你能信任的人

500
00:21:20,950 --> 00:21:22,950
有正直品格的人

501
00:21:22,950 --> 00:21:25,789
不需要你时时操心的人在一起

502
00:21:25,789 --> 00:21:30,519
这也意味着要避开那些对戏剧性上瘾的人

503
00:21:30,519 --> 00:21:33,710
他们会把你拖进他们的混乱之中

504
00:21:33,710 --> 00:21:35,529
这是简单的忠告

505
00:21:35,529 --> 00:21:37,138
但非常强大

506
00:21:37,138 --> 00:21:40,278
别用债务让你的生活过度复杂

507
00:21:40,278 --> 00:21:42,798
别被戏剧性耗尽心力

508
00:21:42,798 --> 00:21:44,900
别让愚蠢的人掌舵

509
00:21:44,900 --> 00:21:47,220
如果你避开了这三件事

510
00:21:47,220 --> 00:21:50,900
你就已经极大地扭转了对你有利的几率

511
00:21:50,900 --> 00:21:54,019
不是因为你会比别人更聪明

512
00:21:54,019 --> 00:21:58,480
而是因为你会有更少咎由自取的伤口

513
00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:00,220
我活了99年

514
00:22:00,220 --> 00:22:01,579
我可以告诉你

515
00:22:01,579 --> 00:22:04,029
不亏钱的秘密并不复杂

516
00:22:04,029 --> 00:22:05,609
答案是纪律

517
00:22:05,609 --> 00:22:06,869
不是才华

518
00:22:06,869 --> 00:22:08,138
不是天分

519
00:22:08,138 --> 00:22:11,199
纪律第一条规则是不要亏损

520
00:22:11,199 --> 00:22:14,638
第二条规则是不要忘记第一条规则

521
00:22:14,638 --> 00:22:17,089
其他的一切都只是注解

522
00:22:17,089 --> 00:22:19,000
我见过帝国崩塌

523
00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:21,019
泡沫膨胀又破裂

524
00:22:21,019 --> 00:22:22,740
整个产业消失

525
00:22:22,740 --> 00:22:24,440
每一次活下来的人

526
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:27,650
都是那些避开了显而易见错误的人

527
00:22:27,650 --> 00:22:29,369
他们不鲁莽借贷

528
00:22:29,369 --> 00:22:31,210
他们不追逐时尚

529
00:22:31,210 --> 00:22:32,769
他们不让嫉妒

530
00:22:32,769 --> 00:22:35,009
傲慢和贪婪主导一切

531
00:22:35,009 --> 00:22:36,710
他们量入为出

532
00:22:36,710 --> 00:22:38,549
买自己懂的东西

533
00:22:38,549 --> 00:22:40,730
和自己信任的人合作

534
00:22:40,730 --> 00:22:41,809
仅此而已

535
00:22:41,809 --> 00:22:42,609
无聊吗

536
00:22:42,609 --> 00:22:44,390
无聊有效吗

537
00:22:44,390 --> 00:22:45,730
该死的有效

538
00:22:45,730 --> 00:22:48,289
我没有计划要成为亿万富翁

539
00:22:48,289 --> 00:22:50,730
我只是努力不让自己破产

540
00:22:50,730 --> 00:22:54,549
而因为在谨慎这方面做得有点过头

541
00:22:54,549 --> 00:22:56,990
结果自然水到渠成

542
00:22:56,990 --> 00:22:58,890
你不需要是个天才

543
00:22:58,890 --> 00:23:00,990
才能遵守那条规则

544
00:23:00,990 --> 00:23:04,109
你只需要力量去避免愚蠢

545
00:23:04,109 --> 00:23:09,159
而且相信我愚蠢的供应量是永远不会枯竭的

546
00:23:09,159 --> 00:23:11,180
如果你没有量入为出

547
00:23:11,180 --> 00:23:13,200
如果你没有避开债务

548
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:16,079
如果你没有待在自己的能力圈里

549
00:23:16,079 --> 00:23:17,640
那么我帮不了你

550
00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:18,849
谁也帮不了

551
00:23:18,849 --> 00:23:20,490
市场是残酷的

552
00:23:20,490 --> 00:23:21,880
他不在乎你

553
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:24,240
不在乎你的希望或借口

554
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:26,960
他只在乎你是否能活得够久

555
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,539
好让复利发挥作用

556
00:23:29,539 --> 00:23:30,819
所以问问你自己

557
00:23:30,819 --> 00:23:36,730
你的人生和投资是建立在生存还是运气之上

558
00:23:36,730 --> 00:23:39,009
因为运气总会用完的

559
00:23:39,009 --> 00:23:40,440
生存不会

560
00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:43,599
我留给你们的是我一生奉行的忠告

561
00:23:43,599 --> 00:23:44,900
忘掉才华

562
00:23:44,900 --> 00:23:46,640
忘掉聪明的伎俩

563
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:47,940
忘掉捷径

564
00:23:47,940 --> 00:23:49,240
只要不亏损

565
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:50,990
光是这一条规则

566
00:23:50,990 --> 00:23:54,829
就比世上所有的投资数据加起来更有价值

567
00:23:54,829 --> 00:23:58,888
如果这些常识对你来说听起来太简单了

568
00:23:58,888 --> 00:24:03,709
那你大概率只能通过惨痛的教训才能学会它

569
00:24:03,709 --> 00:24:08,140
市场对于傲慢永远备有一剂完美的解药

570
00:24:08,140 --> 00:24:10,880
它的名字叫做破产

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