【老李玩钱】战火打响美股竟安然无恙，什么情况？3月行情推演及展望

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大家好

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我是老李

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这两天啊美伊冲突升级

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这战火一响

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咱们这美股呢却是安然无恙啊

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很多朋友呢都非常的不解

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说老李这打仗了啊

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这市场不应该恐慌吗

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啊按道理来说

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美股是应该啊跳水下跌的

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但是美股今天的反应确实安然无恙

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老李啊

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快出来给我们啊做一波解读

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那咱们今天呢就就着这个问题啊来讨论一下呃

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这里面的一些啊奥妙跟逻辑啊

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3月份呢刚刚开始

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我也会对啊

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咱们3月美股的行情呢做一波提前的展望

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那咱们说正事之前

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依照国际惯例

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还是先来跟大家量账户

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今天美股三大指数当中

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道指微红

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纳指和标普500呢都收绿

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我的账户上涨了600多美金

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当前的账户总资产又回到了27万

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这里呢我让GEMINI给咱们总结了

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战争期间美股的表现

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从历史上来看

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美国股市往往呈现出一种反很像的买传闻

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卖事实的模式就是by the rumors sell the news

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由于不确定性

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它们通常在冲突爆发前的几个月里下跌

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但一旦战争迷雾消散

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冲突真正开始

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市场便会反弹

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我们需要了解的是咱们这个市场啊

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他厌恶的并不是战争本身

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市场厌恶的其实是不确定性

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就是在战争之前呀

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这个不确定性是非常高的

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因为啊这个在在真正开打之前啊

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这个市场呢都会猜测啊

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到底会不会开打呀

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到底是哪一哪一边会呃会胜出啊

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或者说这个这个开打之后

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能打到什么一样一个呃局面

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这个火药味儿能有多足啊

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能打到什么程度

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能这个战争能持呃

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这个能打多长的时间

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这些整呃一系列的不确定性

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才是让市场真正这个恐慌的啊因素

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但是其实你战争真正一开始一旦开打了

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这个其实不确定性啊

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他就慢慢的开始消散了

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就像这次美伊冲突一样

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这一开打很快的结果就已经出来了

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那之前很多这市场上的这些啊猜测呀

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不确定性啊

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瞬间它就消失了

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一旦开战

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不确定性开始消散

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这个在咱们股市上也叫做利空出尽

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这个时候呢咱啊股市反而有可能会转涨

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其实从历史上来看啊

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美呃美股在啊很多次的战争期间

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这个表现都是非常不错的

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就是在呃这个根据数据的统计啊

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在啊比如一段时间的战争

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在战争结束的时候啊

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啊美股的这个位置呢是要比呃战争开始之前

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或者战争刚刚开打的时候啊

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都是要高的

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在许多战争的整个持续期间内

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美国股市实际上取得了正回报

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这表明战争本身通常并未破坏股票的长期增长

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从珍珠港事件到1945年底

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道琼斯指数的年化回报率约为13.6%

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在二战朝鲜战争

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越南战争

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海湾战争

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伊拉克战争和阿富汗战争期间

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美国大盘股和小盘股的表现

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往往达到或超过其和平时期的平均回报率

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一项对1926年以来

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美国股票进行的长期分析显示

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在正式界定的战争时期

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股票回报率平均而言始终保持稳健的正直

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所以啊这个战争本身其实并不可怕

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咱们害怕的主要是一些呃地缘政治方面的啊

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不确定因素

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那刚才呢

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咱们解释了这个战争

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跟咱们美股之间的一些关系

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也呃解答了咱们朋友

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很多朋友存在的这样一个疑惑

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就是这呃这战火一打响

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这美股呢反而是啊没什么反应啊

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这煤股怎么会没有啊

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没有跳水

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没有暴跌呢

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这是咱很多朋友存在这样一个疑惑啊

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那接下来呢啊呃我来谈一谈啊

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这个对3月美股的行情呢来做一波这个展望啊

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因为咱们啊刚刚过了一个非常惨痛的2月份

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在2月份呢

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我跟大家做了得有四五场

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这个直播的心灵马杀鸡啊

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那是加再加上视频的这种心灵马杀鸡

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2月份呢做了很多场的心理按摩啊

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说明咱2月这个美股是经常来

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大一副经常血红啊

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呃下跌的比较严重

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在整个2月呢

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咱这个纳指跟标普500指数都是录得了跌幅

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然后纳纳指比较跌的呃比较严重

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纳指在整个2月份应该是跌了

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我上次看啊

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应该是跌了就得有将近4%啊

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这对于一个这个指数

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在呃单月就是一个月内的跌幅来说啊

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这个跌幅确实是不算小

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那咱们3月份来了

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这春天也开始到来啊

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这美股会不会回暖呢

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会不会复苏呢

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从历史上

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标普500指数在每个月的平均回报率来看

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3月呢是一个开始复苏的月份啊

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3月这个标普百指数的平均回报率呢

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为0.57%

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然后4月呢啊进一步的上涨复苏啊

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到了5月份呢

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这个美美股啊又开始啊转弱

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然后2月份呢是通常来说

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在历史上的这个表现啊

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都比较的一般

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2月份每股的平均回报率呢只是也是负的

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当然了

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这只是美股在历史上的一个大致表现啊

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不一定每一年都会按照这个剧本去走啊

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比如说去年2025年

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2025年的3月啊

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就是啊关税川普刚开始发布这个啊关税风暴

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那么三去年的3月呢就下跌的啊比较的严重

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然后这个股市呢一直跌到了4月初啊

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跌到了最低点之后

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开始啊就一路往上反弹

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从当前美股的技术面上来看呢

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标普500指数在呃最近这几个月之内啊

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都是在啊这样一个区间范围内

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一直在横盘震荡啊

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那么这个区间范围呢以这两条啊

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这个支撑位和压力位呢为准啊

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下方的这条支撑位呢是在啊

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差不多6770点的这样一个位置

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上方的呢就是前高的一个啊

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压力是在啊7000点这个位置左右

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大盘呢在最近这段时间创新高的这种欲望啊

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不是特别的强烈

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然后华尔街的意思呢也比较的明确啊

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在短期之内啊

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他们并不想让这个啊大盘再创新高

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所以一直是被前高的这条压力啊给压着

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那么3月份啊标普白指数大概率啊

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我觉得还会继续去这样走一个啊

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横盘震荡的行情

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也就是在啊这个啊这两条线

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6770点到7000点这个区间范围内呢

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啊走一个这样啊

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猴氏也就是咱们所谓的上上下下啊

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这种啊上蹿下跳猴式的这样一种震荡行情

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我觉得呢咱们也不用啊去想那么多啊

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咱们呢啊具体到实呃这个实际的行动上来说

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就是还是啊稳扎稳打

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保证一定股票持仓的同时

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咱们呢要呃留足留有足够的现金储备啊

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这样子不管接下来这个股额

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股市是上涨还是下跌

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涨了咱们啊喝汤

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跌了呢就继续加仓

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做好仓位控制跟管理

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把眼光呢放长远

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不要太在乎短期之内啊

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一城一池的得失

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咱们做美股投资啊

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比的不是速度啊

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比的是耐力

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我经常说啊

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咱们要stay in the market

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就是要在这个市场当中啊

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一直一直待下去

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一直啊玩下去啊

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咱们美股投资呢它不是一一场这个百米冲刺啊

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它是一场啊持久持久战是一场马拉松

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好了

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今天这场心灵马杀鸡

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咱们就做到这吧

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啊给大家灌了不少的鸡汤啊

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啊今天的视频有点短

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但是老李并不短

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那视频都看到这儿了

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依照国际惯例

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还是求各位粉丝一键三连点赞

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评论加转发

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还没有订阅老李这个频道的朋友呢

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