【NaNa说美股】20260429七仙女谁最美？

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说

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美股今天是4月29号

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周三

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由于油价大涨

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巨头财报公布在即

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市场观望情绪浓厚

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标普与纳指基本平收到指小幅收跌

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个股呢跌多涨少

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AI硬件仍保持强势

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但是软件再次受到打压

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工业板块呢整体表现偏弱

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信贷板块因为visa季后股价大涨

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表现优异

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国际油价今天嗯涨了很多哈

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日内已经冲到了108美元

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根据媒体报道

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川普拒绝了伊朗的提议

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声称将继续封锁霍尔木兹海峡

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美国中央司令部已经做好了

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对伊朗发动短期打击的准备

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如果伊朗不采取行动

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川普将考虑动用武力手段

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川普今天还发帖称

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伊朗无法达成一致意见

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他们不知道如何签署一份无核协议

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他们最好尽快放聪明点

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还配了一张自己的照片

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图片上写着不再当好好先生了呃

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伊朗官方呢则回应称

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美国别给脸不要脸哈

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肯和你谈

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那是给你机会

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了解并接受伊朗提出的永久结束战事的条件

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现在停火是为了让川普有机会带领美国

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摆脱目前深陷的战争泥潭

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如果老美

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你还这么执迷不悟下去

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既去封锁伊朗

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扣押我们的船

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那我们就要对你采取前所未有的军事行动了

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事后你可别后悔哈

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别说事先没警告过你

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反正我给翻译就是这么个意思啦

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现在呢双方嘴炮升级

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但是全面恢复军事打击的战术成本

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要远高于停火之初哈

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市场目前仍将这种嘴炮视为谈判手段

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现在盘后川普又大口了说

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哎现在我们一直在通电话沟通哈

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美伊双方谈判可以直接在电话里进行了

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不用再那么辛苦费几十几个小时去开会了

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所以你搞不清楚川普他一会这样

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一会那样

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你到底要做什么

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油价今年上涨更大的原因呃

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还就是

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美国上周原油库存下降了623万桶

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降幅远超预期

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之前一周为增加192.5万桶

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与此同时

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美国战略石油储备创下了一年新低

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所以这就又让供应担忧重

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让今天下午两点的时候

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美联储发布了利率决议声明

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如市场预期哈

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就维持利率不变

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决议声明称

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近期指标表明经济活动一直在稳步扩张

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就业增长平均而言保持在低位

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失业率在近几个月呢也没有什么变化

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通胀率依然企稳

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部分反映了近期全球能源价格的上涨

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声明公布之后

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美债收益率短线走高

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2026年降息期的概率下降

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美股股指呢小幅走低

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半小时后

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宝又开始讲话

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他一贯的那些车轱辘话

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咱们就没必要说了哈

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最重要的是

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当时机合适的时候再离开美联储市场

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对此呢也反应平静

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因为他承诺在担任理事期间将会保持低调

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而且这大概率就是宝月最后一次

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主持新闻发布会了嘛

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5月份沃舍就要走马上任哈

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所以这次美联储会议与保月的讲话呢

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对市场的影响也有限

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高盛交易台观点显示

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市场整体将本次FMC视为低波动事件

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所以今天这个走势也是波澜不惊嗯

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市场更关注伊朗局势

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企业财报还有月末因素

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当前风险资产已经较大程度上看淡了

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依然充分影响

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但是下行为不风险的

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就可能被低估

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现在盘后几个巨头已经公布了财报

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我们快速的看一遍

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微软第三财季营收829亿美元

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同比增长18%

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调整后每股收益为4.27美元

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同比增长23%

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azure和其他云业务增长40%

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这要高于市场预期的38%

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商业剩余履约义务几乎翻了一番

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同比增长99%

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还达到了惊人的6270亿美元啊

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这个为未来几年提供了坚实的收入来源

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这这公司前景很好

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但是股价盘后却冲高回落

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从涨4%转跌了

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因为投资者继续看财报的时候

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发现诶

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第三季度资本支出达到了309亿美元

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同比激增84%

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给现金流带来了压力

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尽管这个季度运营现金流增长强劲

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但是自有现金流同比下降了22%

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所以说魔鬼藏在细节里哈

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只看营收与盈利增速A两位数啊

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那个是不够的

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我还得看公司到底生产了多少自有现金流

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谷歌一季度营收了1099亿美元

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同比增长22%

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广告收入772.5亿美元

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超过预期762亿美元

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谷歌云收入200亿美元

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同比增长63%

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每股收益5.11美元

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同比增长八十十二%

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这大超市场预期的2.67美元

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一季度

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谷歌真乃企业月活用户数环比增长了4%

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一季度的资本开支为356.7亿美元

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略低于预期的363.9亿美元

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谷歌语音积压订单达到4600亿美元哈

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同比已激增63%

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在本季度公司产生了100亿美元的自有现金流

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尽管嗯同比下降了47%哈

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就少了一半呃

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而且资本支出未来也将进一步上升

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但公司仍能够产生这么多的自由现金流呃

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所以呢相比起来哈已经算很好了

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所以股价盘后上涨

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这么稳健的基本面

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完全可以支持股价打开进一步上行的空间

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梅塔一季度营收563亿美元

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同比增长33%

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净利润267.7亿美元

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每股收益10.5美元

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同比增长62%

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增速都很不错哈

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自有现金流123.9亿美元

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比那个谷歌的还要好

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第一季度资本支出呢为198.4亿美元

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指引方面

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公司预计第二季度营收

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580亿到六百十亿美元之间

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这个区间的中间值幅和预期呃

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数据都挺不错哈

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那为什么股价盘后还跌这么多呢

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一位分析师鸡蛋里挑骨头说

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公司将2026年资本支出指引

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从1150亿到1350亿美元啊

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上调至1250亿到1450亿美元

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这花钱太吓人了

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所以要砸盘呃

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但是他花钱虽然多

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可是营收利润还有自有现金流都非常强劲啊

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你看这几个巨头里面

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他的自有现金流最多了

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那就问题不大呀

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所以他明天要是还跌那么多的话

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那我就打算买点了哈

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meta的财报可比那个亚马逊的要强多了

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亚马逊一季度进行销售额一千八百十五亿美元

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同比增长17%

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每股收益2.78美元

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大超预期的1.62美元嗯

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AWS净销售额为376亿美元

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同样超过预期的366.8亿美元

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同比增长28%

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诶

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这个增速就比不上那个谷歌云和微软云了哈

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预计二季度净销售额1940亿

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到1990亿美元

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也超出预期的1890亿美元

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一季度实现净利润303亿美元

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去年同期171亿美元

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看起来也是超级好是吧

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但是重点来了哈

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里面有一大块是账面收益

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不是主营业务赚的

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这笔钱来自亚马逊投资的AI公司ENTROPIK

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属于非经营性收入哈

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本质上是这个估值上涨带来的账面盈利

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市场呢一般会打折

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看来这种利润因为不是经常新的嘛

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再看现金流

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过去12个月

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公司的经营现金流为1485亿美元

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同比增长30%

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但是但是哈

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全年自由现金流暴跌到只有12亿美元

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而去年同期哈

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就是截止2025年3月之前的那12个月

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同期为259亿美元

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因为公司的资本开支暴增了593亿美元

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全砸在AI基础设施上

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直接导致现金被花光

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自有现金流急剧收缩

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本季度它的自有现金流甚至转为负的

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180亿美元

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亚马逊的这份财报说白了就一句话

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表面看是赚翻了

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实际上是在疯狂烧钱搞AI

220
00:09:16,230 --> 00:09:20,669
而且他的云业务增速还打不过谷歌与微软

221
00:09:20,669 --> 00:09:22,549
所以股价盘后下跌

222
00:09:22,549 --> 00:09:25,330
这跌的一丁点都没有冤枉他哈

223
00:09:25,330 --> 00:09:27,830
股价财报之前已经涨了一轮了

224
00:09:27,830 --> 00:09:28,870
创新高了

225
00:09:28,870 --> 00:09:31,990
我觉得这份财报无法支持股价走得更远了

226
00:09:31,990 --> 00:09:35,860
真的是他要是股价再创新高呃

227
00:09:35,860 --> 00:09:39,659
meta与微软他们的股价跟那个新高还跟距离呢

228
00:09:39,659 --> 00:09:44,690
所以这个我宁愿去买meta与微软或者谷歌都行哈

229
00:09:44,690 --> 00:09:46,090
但亚马逊就算了

230
00:09:46,090 --> 00:09:50,068
现在投资者呢还在继续消化这些巨头财报中

231
00:09:50,068 --> 00:09:52,009
多空的资金还在博弈

232
00:09:52,009 --> 00:09:53,188
到了明天盘前

233
00:09:53,188 --> 00:09:55,359
股价仍可能会出现变化

234
00:09:55,359 --> 00:09:59,159
标普500指数连续两个交易日首出小十字星

235
00:09:59,159 --> 00:10:01,679
而且被夹在5日与10日均线之间

236
00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:04,360
说明短线资金在巨头财报之前呢

237
00:10:04,360 --> 00:10:06,250
不敢再贸然的加仓

238
00:10:06,250 --> 00:10:06,730
指数

239
00:10:06,730 --> 00:10:08,889
涨到这也开始有点犹豫了

240
00:10:08,889 --> 00:10:11,009
日内波动收窄并不是转弱

241
00:10:11,009 --> 00:10:13,599
而是高度不确定性压出来的瓶颈

242
00:10:13,599 --> 00:10:15,438
那明天波动就会放大了哈

243
00:10:15,438 --> 00:10:17,950
因为明天是4月最后一个交易日

244
00:10:17,950 --> 00:10:21,309
高盛之前不是一直提醒养老金月底再平衡

245
00:10:21,309 --> 00:10:23,940
会带来230亿美元的卖压吗

246
00:10:23,940 --> 00:10:26,659
这个规模呢对于整个美股市场来说

247
00:10:26,659 --> 00:10:28,039
其实也算不了什么

248
00:10:28,039 --> 00:10:30,220
它不会决定方向

249
00:10:30,220 --> 00:10:32,129
只会放大行情

250
00:10:32,129 --> 00:10:34,049
如果市场强的话

251
00:10:34,049 --> 00:10:36,779
可以直接把这230亿美元给吃掉

252
00:10:36,779 --> 00:10:38,759
但若是情绪转弱

253
00:10:38,759 --> 00:10:40,779
再叠加这一类被动卖盘

254
00:10:40,779 --> 00:10:42,659
那就容易形成共振哈

255
00:10:42,659 --> 00:10:44,240
放大下行波动

256
00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:48,360
明天看开市指数是直接站上5日均线呢

257
00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:51,419
还是低开在10日均线下方啊

258
00:10:51,419 --> 00:10:54,539
那你就基本知道日内的这个方向了

259
00:10:54,539 --> 00:10:58,440
比较值得关注的是道指近期的走势哈

260
00:10:58,440 --> 00:10:59,879
显柱的偏弱

261
00:10:59,879 --> 00:11:02,980
没能够跟随着标普与纳指创新高

262
00:11:02,980 --> 00:11:04,970
反而体检掉头回调

263
00:11:04,970 --> 00:11:06,830
因为这一轮枫木行情

264
00:11:06,830 --> 00:11:09,750
它主要是由AI和半导体驱动的

265
00:11:09,750 --> 00:11:13,578
道指呢缺乏这一类高纯度的科技巨头

266
00:11:13,578 --> 00:11:16,860
所以几乎没怎么吃到行业爆发的红利

267
00:11:16,860 --> 00:11:18,980
尽管它的成分股里面有英伟达

268
00:11:18,980 --> 00:11:20,399
但是远远不够是吧

269
00:11:20,399 --> 00:11:23,840
嗯它呢包含了大量的工业银行

270
00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:26,340
传同能源和消费股

271
00:11:26,340 --> 00:11:28,080
对高利率是很敏感的

272
00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:29,440
在目前10年期美债

273
00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:32,120
收益率处于4.4%的水平

274
00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:35,779
市场认为利率可能更高更久的预期之下

275
00:11:35,779 --> 00:11:39,389
传统价值股会提前掉头缩减估值

276
00:11:39,389 --> 00:11:43,429
而科技股呢还能够靠着对AI的疯狂的预期

277
00:11:43,429 --> 00:11:44,710
继续支撑着

278
00:11:44,710 --> 00:11:46,950
像这一种标普创新高

279
00:11:46,950 --> 00:11:48,990
而道指不更的现象

280
00:11:48,990 --> 00:11:53,549
在技术派眼里是典型的牛市末端背离

281
00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:01,840
收缩到少数盈利能力极强的科技避风港

282
00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:02,940
就是豆子中

283
00:12:02,940 --> 00:12:05,659
导致市场的广度持续恶化

284
00:12:05,659 --> 00:12:07,940
我们看这个标普平权指数

285
00:12:07,940 --> 00:12:10,100
已经连续七天下跌了哈

286
00:12:10,100 --> 00:12:13,839
这就说明现在只有少数科技股在支撑着市场

287
00:12:13,839 --> 00:12:16,859
多数股票都在下跌或者横盘

288
00:12:16,859 --> 00:12:18,619
但这并不意味着说

289
00:12:18,619 --> 00:12:21,840
市场马上要下跌或者一定会下跌

290
00:12:21,840 --> 00:12:24,740
而是这个牛市若要再继续的话

291
00:12:24,740 --> 00:12:29,139
那么资金后面必须得发生良性的轮动

292
00:12:29,139 --> 00:12:30,568
让道指补涨

293
00:12:30,568 --> 00:12:32,509
要么通胀数据好转

294
00:12:32,509 --> 00:12:34,539
确认利率鉴定呃

295
00:12:34,539 --> 00:12:39,068
吸引资金去抄底这个低位的传统蓝筹

296
00:12:39,068 --> 00:12:41,629
要么在科技巨头利好出尽之后呢

297
00:12:41,629 --> 00:12:44,188
资金出于安全边际的考虑

298
00:12:44,188 --> 00:12:46,690
被动流入道指来轮动

299
00:12:46,690 --> 00:12:50,250
如果道指继续这么放任阴跌下去

300
00:12:50,250 --> 00:12:53,559
和那个标普与NAS的背离加去

301
00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:58,080
那最坏的结果哈就是把标普和纳指都给带下来

302
00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:00,149
导致全市场杀估值

303
00:13:00,149 --> 00:13:05,429
观察道指是否在4万8000点附近能呃止跌回升

304
00:13:05,429 --> 00:13:07,850
这是判断这一波牛市

305
00:13:07,850 --> 00:13:11,839
能否挺过2026年年终的关键

306
00:13:11,839 --> 00:13:14,899
如果他能够在这里撑住

307
00:13:14,899 --> 00:13:17,539
并且反弹或提前反弹啊

308
00:13:17,539 --> 00:13:19,340
那就是健康的调整哈

309
00:13:19,340 --> 00:13:21,059
后面将会发生轮动

310
00:13:21,059 --> 00:13:23,720
并且呢进一步扩大牛市

311
00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:25,620
要是跌穿了这个职称

312
00:13:25,620 --> 00:13:28,919
那标普和纳指的高危也就岌岌可危了

313
00:13:28,919 --> 00:13:31,399
那这个年终的时候呃

314
00:13:31,399 --> 00:13:34,980
美股的调整哈就不可避免了

315
00:13:34,980 --> 00:13:36,568
其他的个股方面

316
00:13:36,568 --> 00:13:40,969
存储龙头STX财报彻底点燃板块情绪哈

317
00:13:40,969 --> 00:13:42,849
虽然股价日内冲高回落

318
00:13:42,849 --> 00:13:44,950
但是仍大涨11.1%

319
00:13:44,950 --> 00:13:48,129
公司第三财季营收同比增长44%

320
00:13:48,129 --> 00:13:51,159
每股收益翻倍到4.1美元

321
00:13:51,159 --> 00:13:53,879
自由现金流高达9.53亿美元

322
00:13:53,879 --> 00:13:55,759
创近10年新高

323
00:13:55,759 --> 00:13:58,139
同时还在大幅去杠杆

324
00:13:58,139 --> 00:14:02,240
公司单季偿还了6.41亿美元的债务

325
00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:05,799
年内已经累计削减了大约10亿美元债务哈

326
00:14:05,799 --> 00:14:07,759
财务状况明显的改善

327
00:14:07,759 --> 00:14:08,639
更重要的是

328
00:14:08,639 --> 00:14:11,159
公司给出的下个季度营收和盈利指引

329
00:14:11,159 --> 00:14:14,119
也都朝于GCO直接表态说

330
00:14:14,119 --> 00:14:17,639
存储行业已经进入了结构性增长新时代

331
00:14:17,639 --> 00:14:19,019
并将未来数年

332
00:14:19,019 --> 00:14:22,720
年增长目标上调至至少20%

333
00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:26,059
而且产能已经锁定到2027年底了

334
00:14:26,059 --> 00:14:30,539
这一轮有AI驱动的存储需求哈似乎没有尽头

335
00:14:30,539 --> 00:14:31,820
这财报出来之后

336
00:14:31,820 --> 00:14:33,259
不仅他自己起飞

337
00:14:33,259 --> 00:14:35,679
整个存储板块都疯狂了

338
00:14:35,679 --> 00:14:36,559
公司还称

339
00:14:36,559 --> 00:14:39,419
未来几个季度可能会加大力度回购股票

340
00:14:39,419 --> 00:14:41,649
向股东返还价值

341
00:14:41,649 --> 00:14:45,009
受汽车和工业芯片需求回暖带动的

342
00:14:45,009 --> 00:14:48,528
荷兰芯片大厂嗯NXPI

343
00:14:48,528 --> 00:14:52,240
也交出了一份超预期强指引的成绩单

344
00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:54,519
股价暴涨了25.6%

345
00:14:54,519 --> 00:14:56,559
市场情绪被彻底点燃

346
00:14:56,559 --> 00:14:57,720
财报数据显示

347
00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:00,039
公司一季度表现相当的亮眼

348
00:15:00,039 --> 00:15:02,100
营收同比增长了12%

349
00:15:02,100 --> 00:15:04,639
净利润更是从4.9亿美元

350
00:15:04,639 --> 00:15:07,409
飙升到了11.2亿美元

351
00:15:07,409 --> 00:15:08,489
同时呃

352
00:15:08,489 --> 00:15:11,028
公司给出的二季度营收和盈利指引呢

353
00:15:11,028 --> 00:15:12,849
也是明显高于市场预期

354
00:15:12,849 --> 00:15:16,029
这份财报背后释放了一个非常重要的信号

355
00:15:16,029 --> 00:15:18,490
就是工业和汽车芯片

356
00:15:18,490 --> 00:15:21,078
正在走出长达两年的低谷期

357
00:15:21,078 --> 00:15:24,418
过去两年由于疫情期间的过度囤货

358
00:15:24,418 --> 00:15:27,239
下游的客户呢一直在拼命的去库存

359
00:15:27,239 --> 00:15:29,129
需求就被压得很低

360
00:15:29,129 --> 00:15:31,929
现在库存已经逐渐回到正常水平了

361
00:15:31,929 --> 00:15:33,929
所以新订单呢也开始回流

362
00:15:33,929 --> 00:15:37,750
这两个核心市场都出现了明显的复苏迹象

363
00:15:37,750 --> 00:15:40,909
整个模拟芯片板块都在同步回暖

364
00:15:40,909 --> 00:15:43,490
公司的主要竞争对手德州仪器

365
00:15:43,490 --> 00:15:44,850
还有易法半导体

366
00:15:44,850 --> 00:15:46,889
最近财报也同样超预期

367
00:15:46,889 --> 00:15:50,509
所以半导体板块开始从纯AI蓄势

368
00:15:50,509 --> 00:15:53,740
慢慢扩散到了与现实基础设施

369
00:15:53,740 --> 00:15:57,309
还有制造业深度绑定的那些芯片需求

370
00:15:59,389 --> 00:16:00,909
3.24大跌

371
00:16:00,909 --> 00:16:02,730
我们要先观察三天哈

372
00:16:02,730 --> 00:16:03,889
等企稳再入

373
00:16:06,659 --> 00:16:07,980
比如像SOF财报

374
00:16:07,980 --> 00:16:09,019
它是超预期的

375
00:16:09,019 --> 00:16:10,519
但是也大跳水

376
00:16:10,519 --> 00:16:14,110
公司QE净收入10.9亿美元

377
00:16:14,110 --> 00:16:16,110
同比增长41%

378
00:16:16,110 --> 00:16:18,169
调整后每股收益12美分

379
00:16:18,169 --> 00:16:19,169
同比翻倍

380
00:16:19,169 --> 00:16:20,549
这数据很不错

381
00:16:20,549 --> 00:16:23,039
但是第二季度指引平淡

382
00:16:23,039 --> 00:16:25,620
而且公司没有上调全年业绩预测

383
00:16:25,620 --> 00:16:28,799
仍然预计Q2收入11.1亿美元

384
00:16:28,799 --> 00:16:30,980
略低于预期的11.2亿美元

385
00:16:30,980 --> 00:16:34,490
预计全年调整后每股收益将超过60美分

386
00:16:34,490 --> 00:16:38,169
预计全年收入呢将会超过46.5亿美元

387
00:16:38,169 --> 00:16:40,250
都只是符合预期

388
00:16:40,250 --> 00:16:43,049
虽然业务增长迅速

389
00:16:43,049 --> 00:16:46,850
但是投资者似乎仍然担心公司的增长停滞啊

390
00:16:46,850 --> 00:16:48,950
反正就是找个理由下跌嘛

391
00:16:48,950 --> 00:16:50,830
股价今天跳空低开

392
00:16:50,830 --> 00:16:52,250
跌了15.4%

393
00:16:52,250 --> 00:16:54,859
跌的比那个和平沪的还要多

394
00:16:54,859 --> 00:16:59,250
当市场开始重新炒作降息预期的时候哈

395
00:16:59,250 --> 00:17:01,850
这些金融科技股呢才能够起来

396
00:17:01,850 --> 00:17:03,580
现在就趴着了呃

397
00:17:03,580 --> 00:17:06,099
美国汽车协会数据显示

398
00:17:06,099 --> 00:17:10,380
全美平均汽油价格已经涨到了4.18美元

399
00:17:10,380 --> 00:17:13,759
一家沦为2022年8月以来的最高

400
00:17:13,759 --> 00:17:17,259
4月份的这个CPI能好才奇怪了哈

401
00:17:17,259 --> 00:17:20,220
所以难怪今天美债收益率猛涨很多

402
00:17:20,220 --> 00:17:23,190
那些说美国呃自己是产油国

403
00:17:23,190 --> 00:17:25,509
所以不用担心油价上涨了

404
00:17:25,509 --> 00:17:28,190
你可以看一看到底对美国有没有影响

405
00:17:28,190 --> 00:17:28,890
你想啊

406
00:17:28,890 --> 00:17:30,910
全世界的油价都涨了

407
00:17:30,910 --> 00:17:33,160
那美国的生产商呃

408
00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:36,859
他们会那么善心在美国国内卖廉价油吗

409
00:17:36,859 --> 00:17:38,849
他肯定也要涨价的嘛是吧

410
00:17:38,849 --> 00:17:40,890
visa股价呢季后大涨

411
00:17:40,890 --> 00:17:43,950
公司第二财季营收同比增长17%

412
00:17:43,950 --> 00:17:46,670
创下自2022年以来最大增幅

413
00:17:46,670 --> 00:17:49,109
调整后每股收益3.31美元

414
00:17:49,109 --> 00:17:51,159
也明显的高于预期

415
00:17:51,159 --> 00:17:54,219
消费者和企业支付需求依然稳哈

416
00:17:54,219 --> 00:17:56,479
尤其是高收入人群的消费

417
00:17:56,479 --> 00:17:56,979
旅行

418
00:17:56,979 --> 00:18:01,559
娱乐和商业支付继续撑起了基本盘

419
00:18:01,559 --> 00:18:03,740
即便中东局势推高了油价

420
00:18:03,740 --> 00:18:04,980
宏观不确定信任

421
00:18:04,980 --> 00:18:07,940
在美国3月消费数据依然超预期

422
00:18:07,940 --> 00:18:12,460
油价上涨呢带动加油站整体销售额上升

423
00:18:12,460 --> 00:18:16,279
而美国政府的退税政策拖住了整体消费

424
00:18:16,279 --> 00:18:19,859
公司还意外上调了2026财年的盈利指引

425
00:18:19,859 --> 00:18:23,180
同时呢叠加稳定币结算规模扩张

426
00:18:23,180 --> 00:18:25,839
以及新一轮200亿美元的回购计划

427
00:18:25,839 --> 00:18:29,750
共同推动了市场对visa的看涨情绪升温

428
00:18:29,750 --> 00:18:32,950
不过短期支撑visa上涨的依然是

429
00:18:32,950 --> 00:18:34,849
传统支付网络的护城河

430
00:18:34,849 --> 00:18:39,130
就是规模交易粘性以及高收入人群的消费任性

431
00:18:39,130 --> 00:18:40,250
至于稳定币

432
00:18:40,250 --> 00:18:42,630
那更像是一个远期看涨期权

433
00:18:42,630 --> 00:18:44,369
如果未来监管更清晰

434
00:18:44,369 --> 00:18:45,779
应用场景打开

435
00:18:45,779 --> 00:18:49,980
他有机会从潜在的威胁变成新的增长引擎

436
00:18:49,980 --> 00:18:51,859
但是现在他还不是主角

437
00:18:51,859 --> 00:18:54,680
英特尔股价今天呢再创历史新高

438
00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:57,059
单月涨幅已经翻倍了哈疯了

439
00:18:57,059 --> 00:18:58,619
据媒体消息

440
00:18:58,619 --> 00:19:02,940
苹果正在评估把M系列芯片交给英特尔来做

441
00:19:02,940 --> 00:19:07,700
谷歌呢也在考虑用英特尔的EMID先进封装

442
00:19:07,700 --> 00:19:11,009
去推进下一代TPUV81

443
00:19:11,009 --> 00:19:12,230
与此同时

444
00:19:12,230 --> 00:19:16,450
特斯拉仅确认将采用英特尔下一代14A制成

445
00:19:16,450 --> 00:19:19,599
用在奥斯汀的tera fab AI综合体

446
00:19:19,599 --> 00:19:22,359
你看这一个又是评估

447
00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:25,660
又是考绿这种模棱两可的词

448
00:19:25,660 --> 00:19:30,289
但是这已经足够让热钱继续爆炒这个股价了

449
00:19:30,289 --> 00:19:32,150
AI芯片的需求爆炸

450
00:19:32,150 --> 00:19:34,720
台积电的产能再强也不够丰呀

451
00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:37,240
呃所以呢英特尔作为美国的亲儿子

452
00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:38,640
这个时候就得上了是吧

453
00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:41,160
这不得不用必须扶持起来

454
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:42,559
从战略地位来看

455
00:19:42,559 --> 00:19:44,839
他确实被美国政府给抬上来了

456
00:19:44,839 --> 00:19:47,730
但问题是英特尔有没有这个能力呢

457
00:19:47,730 --> 00:19:51,430
之前苹果和英伟达也不是没有测试过

458
00:19:51,430 --> 00:19:53,210
英特尔的18A制造工艺

459
00:19:53,210 --> 00:19:55,220
最后都停止了嗯

460
00:19:55,220 --> 00:19:56,339
因为他不行嘛

461
00:19:56,339 --> 00:20:00,460
最终那些巨头还是只能够继续排队去找台积电

462
00:20:00,460 --> 00:20:02,779
现在媒体又炒这种消息哈

463
00:20:02,779 --> 00:20:05,819
那就看这次测试到底能不能够获得成功吧

464
00:20:05,819 --> 00:20:09,500
燃料电池比E股价呢暴涨了27.2%

465
00:20:09,500 --> 00:20:11,160
续创历史新高

466
00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:12,859
一季报超预期

467
00:20:12,859 --> 00:20:15,660
并且大幅上调了全年业绩指引

468
00:20:15,660 --> 00:20:17,819
Q1营收7.51亿美元

469
00:20:17,819 --> 00:20:22,079
同比增长了130%季度扭亏为盈

470
00:20:22,079 --> 00:20:25,059
实现净利润7065万美元

471
00:20:25,059 --> 00:20:28,279
去年同期为净亏损2.38亿美元

472
00:20:28,279 --> 00:20:31,650
所以这个基本面的确是极大的改善哈

473
00:20:31,650 --> 00:20:34,009
公司将2026财年营收指引

474
00:20:34,009 --> 00:20:36,579
从此之前的31到33亿美元

475
00:20:36,579 --> 00:20:39,119
上调到34到38亿美元

476
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:41,970
同时呢将毛利率嗯指引

477
00:20:41,970 --> 00:20:44,690
上调至32%到34%

478
00:20:44,690 --> 00:20:46,650
更令资本市场兴奋的是

479
00:20:46,650 --> 00:20:47,759
公司放话称

480
00:20:47,759 --> 00:20:52,119
限制我们收入的是客户建造数据中心的速度

481
00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:53,450
而不是我们的产能

482
00:20:53,450 --> 00:20:56,369
只要数据中心建造速度跟得上

483
00:20:56,369 --> 00:21:00,630
燃料电池管够这个积极的前景呃

484
00:21:00,630 --> 00:21:02,730
美国AI不缺芯片哈

485
00:21:02,730 --> 00:21:04,519
不缺钱就缺电

486
00:21:04,519 --> 00:21:07,519
而燃料电池呢使分布式能源

487
00:21:07,519 --> 00:21:10,259
可以在数据中心门口直接安装

488
00:21:10,259 --> 00:21:13,299
只要有天然气管道或者氢气供应

489
00:21:13,299 --> 00:21:16,779
他们就能够跳过漫长的电网接入审批

490
00:21:16,779 --> 00:21:18,039
即插即用了

491
00:21:18,039 --> 00:21:21,599
B1呢正在经历从0~1的订单爆发期

492
00:21:21,599 --> 00:21:24,019
所以它的股价也是处于爆发期

493
00:21:24,019 --> 00:21:26,140
与此形成鲜明对比的

494
00:21:26,140 --> 00:21:28,180
就是那些公用事业电力股了哈

495
00:21:28,180 --> 00:21:31,109
比如vs st股价最近一直盘整

496
00:21:31,109 --> 00:21:34,730
尽管它拥有核电和天然气电厂

497
00:21:34,730 --> 00:21:38,029
可是呢他也极度依赖大电网的传输

498
00:21:38,029 --> 00:21:42,549
在美国新建高压输电线路的审批和建设周期

499
00:21:42,549 --> 00:21:45,940
通常这个要长达五到10年

500
00:21:45,940 --> 00:21:47,740
AI巨头们等不起啊

501
00:21:47,740 --> 00:21:49,200
所以资金更青睐

502
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:52,888
那些能够直接解决燃眉之急的be

503
00:21:52,888 --> 00:21:56,769
而且定价也往往受这个长期协议

504
00:21:56,769 --> 00:21:58,240
或者是监管的限制

505
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:00,680
VST在前几年的AI炒作中

506
00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:02,630
已经积累了巨大的涨幅

507
00:22:02,630 --> 00:22:05,450
目前就处于估值消化期

508
00:22:05,450 --> 00:22:09,700
市场在等待电网扩容的实质性进展

509
00:22:09,700 --> 00:22:13,680
或者呢更丰厚的长期购电合同的落地

510
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:16,059
还有嗯欠债利率高企

511
00:22:16,059 --> 00:22:18,779
也对这些公用事业股呢产生了压力

512
00:22:18,779 --> 00:22:20,660
高通盘后也发布了财报

513
00:22:20,660 --> 00:22:23,519
公司第二财季营收下滑3%

514
00:22:23,519 --> 00:22:25,660
净利润73.7亿美元

515
00:22:25,660 --> 00:22:27,720
同比增长了162%

516
00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:31,630
公司与GD3财季营收92亿到100亿美元

517
00:22:31,630 --> 00:22:34,410
不及预期的102.6亿美元

518
00:22:34,410 --> 00:22:36,109
预计第三季度调整后

519
00:22:36,109 --> 00:22:38,490
每股收益为2.1到2.3美元

520
00:22:38,490 --> 00:22:41,359
同样不及预七到2.45美元

521
00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:43,700
股价盘后呢先跌后涨

522
00:22:43,700 --> 00:22:47,119
因为高通CEO在财报电话会议上画饼

523
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:47,380
真

524
00:22:47,380 --> 00:22:52,279
与一家头部大规模云厂商定制芯片的合作项目

525
00:22:52,279 --> 00:22:53,349
进展顺利

526
00:22:53,349 --> 00:22:57,619
预计今年年内将会启动首批出货嗯

527
00:22:57,619 --> 00:22:58,759
AI智能体

528
00:22:58,759 --> 00:23:02,500
正在重塑公司全平台产品的发展路线图

529
00:23:02,500 --> 00:23:04,740
同时呢对布局数据中心业务

530
00:23:04,740 --> 00:23:06,909
同样抱有高度的期待

531
00:23:06,909 --> 00:23:07,808
他还表示

532
00:23:07,808 --> 00:23:10,808
智能手机市场将在今年下半年反弹

533
00:23:10,808 --> 00:23:12,710
现在差不多就已经触底了

534
00:23:12,710 --> 00:23:15,349
反正最近就是风炒芯片嘛

535
00:23:15,349 --> 00:23:16,769
其他板块没什么好炒

536
00:23:16,769 --> 00:23:19,710
全部都抱团AI半导体了

537
00:23:19,710 --> 00:23:23,710
比瓦克曼旗下的潘兴广场完成了双重上市

538
00:23:23,710 --> 00:23:25,599
但是首秀翻车了

539
00:23:25,599 --> 00:23:27,759
这次IPO采用双重架构

540
00:23:27,759 --> 00:23:29,099
包括封闭式基金

541
00:23:29,099 --> 00:23:32,380
潘兴广场美国公司和资产管理公司

542
00:23:32,380 --> 00:23:35,950
潘兴广场公司一共募资50亿美元

543
00:23:35,950 --> 00:23:38,789
嗯其中28亿来自基石投资者

544
00:23:38,789 --> 00:23:42,170
是近10年来最大的封闭式基金IPO

545
00:23:42,170 --> 00:23:43,529
发行价50美元

546
00:23:43,529 --> 00:23:46,388
买五股还送一股PS的股份

547
00:23:46,388 --> 00:23:49,249
结果呢上市首日就直接破发了

548
00:23:49,249 --> 00:23:50,749
开盘跌16%

549
00:23:50,749 --> 00:23:52,769
收盘跌18.2%

550
00:23:52,769 --> 00:23:53,690
阿克曼称

551
00:23:56,150 --> 00:23:57,730
吸引散户参与

552
00:23:57,730 --> 00:24:00,839
并且佣兵户的加信等合作分销

553
00:24:00,839 --> 00:24:04,720
这也是他在2024年IPO失败后的再度尝试哈

554
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:06,720
不过市场对此反应冷淡

555
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:07,759
主要还是因为

556
00:24:07,759 --> 00:24:11,259
封闭式基金本身存在折价交易的风险

557
00:24:11,259 --> 00:24:13,409
后续表现呢仍有待观察

558
00:24:13,409 --> 00:24:15,808
短期这个股价涨跌

559
00:24:15,808 --> 00:24:17,769
那得看资金要不要炒

560
00:24:17,769 --> 00:24:20,009
是不是给B瓦克曼站台

561
00:24:20,009 --> 00:24:23,859
中长期的话哈买这个那还不如去买QQQ呢

562
00:24:23,859 --> 00:24:26,059
行今天我们就说到这里哈

563
00:24:26,059 --> 00:24:28,180
今天讲的这个食品超级的长

564
00:24:28,180 --> 00:24:30,900
因为等那几个巨头出财报嘛

565
00:24:30,900 --> 00:24:31,799
发的也比较晚

566
00:24:31,799 --> 00:24:35,400
那现在我们就等明天盘后苹果出财报了哈

567
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:36,799
我们明天见拜拜

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