【Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D】科技七巨头暴跌，谁才是真便宜？

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对投资者来说是个好日子

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我一个月前在最大平台制作了这个视频

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七个内在价值买入时机

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从那时起很多事情发生了变化

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英伟达股价下跌10%

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Meta

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下跌17%

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亚马逊

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股价跌至40美元

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谷歌

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所有股票都下跌 苹果也一样

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现在是时候回答这个问题了

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这些是否是更好的投资标的

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从逻辑上看 当价格更低时

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买入更划算

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这是纯粹的数学问题

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风险更低

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回报率更高

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这是需要理解的关键点

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在投资领域

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现在看看这些企业在当前水平是否适合你的投资组合

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以及如何长期为你创造财富

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因为是的

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这一切都可能反转 战争缓解反弹

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改善的情况都可能发生

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只是回到之前的高点

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你就能赚大钱 现在立即从英伟达开始

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这是我们的内在价值计算表

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可免费下载

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在我的免费投资课程中

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可查看高级版本

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包含我的股票精选 研究平台

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现在看看英伟达

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这里显示每股收益

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关键问题是增长率

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我采用了非常保守的估值

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我认为可以

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明年可能增长50%

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之后30%增长 然后在半导体周期中回落

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这就是为什么定为15%

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然而

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如果我们采用多数预期的30%增长率

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市盈率保持20或降至20

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如果这里填25

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那么英伟达被低估 将带来10%以上回报

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这大概有12%

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12.5%

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13%的回报率

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英伟达的预期收益

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基于这些假设

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这是可能的

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因此更低的价格能带来更高的回报

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但我总是关注这种周期性

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所以我不能偏离这个标准

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二十保守

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甚至不如这保守

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我见过市盈率十倍的半导体公司

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因此我认为英伟达仍处于AI芯片热潮中

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只要这个趋势持续

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股价将保持坚挺

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甚至表现更好

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如果市值突破一万亿

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承诺永远实现全面增长

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且无重大波动

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AI部署没有时间问题

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在芯片采购方面

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那么你会获利良多

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但该策略存在诸多变数

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我近期详细研究了英伟达

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我会在下方描述中附上链接

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黄仁勋

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我观看了所有会议以判断趋势

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我的结论是这是一场竞赛

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但终局没有时间限制

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这意味着所有人

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任何人都可以参与这场游戏

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看看能否获胜

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这对英伟达保持主导地位非常困难

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十年前并非主导者

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现在距十年后还有十年

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谁将成为主导者

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无人知晓

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数据令人震惊

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增长速度惊人

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简直疯狂

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利润率

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持续改善

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净利润大幅增长

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现金流

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一切表现优异

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但所有人都在追逐英伟达

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在投资领域

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你可以押注未来两年

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或让生活更简单

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通过专注

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好的

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七到十年后业务会怎样

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我是否百分之百确定

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它会更强大

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更大更好，它将抵御竞争

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著名的沃伦·巴菲特模式

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因为这将改变一切

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如果你专注于模式

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无需关注新闻

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无需关注任何事物

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你知道的

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我拥有这家企业

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它会更大

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更好更强

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这就是关于英伟达的一切

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近年来取得巨大成功

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关键问题在于

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能否持续下去

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我的回答是

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我不知道

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有些人坚信不疑

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有些人则不太确定

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我们拭目以待

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我们将看到结果

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这不是赌注

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我想纳入我的投资组合

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让我们讨论可能更具优势的模式

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或许Meta平台

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除了他们完全错失更名机会并终止了Meta

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现在或许可以去掉Meta仅保留平台

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不过好吧

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市盈率十八倍

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或许更低

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如果我们调整计算

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现在问题在于

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股价下跌四成

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在这里做了视频分析

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当股价在九十时

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当时表现强劲

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再来看看

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如今是否再次营收增长

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一切都在增长

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一切都很出色

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若调整巨额账单影响

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估值为二十九点七

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当我们查看表格时

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二十九点七

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需调整无分红因素

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他们全部用于派息

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若以八%年增长率

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预期十%增长率

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二十倍终值倍数

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我们接近良好回报

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若将二五市盈率与市场对齐

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Meta即将在未来十年内每年提供约10%的年回报率

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如果市场在任何时候重现这种情况

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随着时间推移你可能轻松获得50%的涨幅

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看起来这对投资组合已经很有吸引力了

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但也存在一些问题

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马克表示将投入1400亿美元用于AI资本支出

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关键问题在于AI资本支出的具体用途

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是的

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可以在业务中实施这项技术

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但当前业务已经很好了

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他想要这么做

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他曾想打造元宇宙

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这最终以失败告终

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因此现在在增加风险

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因为他选择花钱而非回购股票

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我认为Meta十年后仍会存在

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因其商业模式基于人性弱点

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人性弱点

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无限模式与马克

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精准定位短期多巴胺效应

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Instagram平台

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就是说

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那个令人惊叹的

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AI是否会引发社交媒体颠覆

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是否会诞生下一个马克

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利用AI提供更好服务

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那个Facebook

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但更优化升级

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用户可能随之转移

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然而

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现有网络

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社群已形成稳固模式

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我可以说

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即使如此微软

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仍需观察

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或许可以持续测试

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用1%的资产持有

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将2%的组合投入一年

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让你更深入了解

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然后就能理解

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好的

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一年时间

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或许会遭遇衰退

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广告支出减少

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下跌20%

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然后可以确认

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这就是极限

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我知道我想投入10-15%

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将20%组合资金投入这个有趣项目

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让我们看看个人结果如何

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我不喜欢马克这个人，因为他太难了，我都不想投资他

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但这只是个人观点

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我知道金钱应该有道德性

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A说的没错

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但有时候对我来说确实很难

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现在投资Meta公司

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就是亚马逊

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说实在的，我比马克更不喜欢杰夫·贝佐斯

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但我认为亚马逊是更好的商业模式

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我必须保持无道德立场

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我们去查看亚马逊的情况吧

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我们可以看到，即使以15%的标准增长率

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未来以10%的速度增长

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市盈率20倍

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现在估值已经更高了

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如果市盈率保持在30倍

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亚马逊价格被低估了

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亚马逊即将带来约12%的回报率

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未来十年预计13%的回报率

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这简直令人震惊

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然而

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在稳定市盈率下结合增长因素

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亚马逊已形成特殊局面

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我们曾讨论过这个

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再次在下方链接查看

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所有巨头都在买入

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因为亚马逊很可能在十年后依然存在

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这就是他们看到的暂时性下跌

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这些左右摇摆的问题

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市场正在下跌

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或许会陷入衰退

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如果出现滞胀

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需求减少

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商品减少可能有帮助

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股价下跌反而提供买入机会

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这也是现在值得关注的原因

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那么

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如果继续下跌

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加倍持仓享受未来十年

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亚马逊竞争压力小

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AWS被所有人用于AI领域

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他们在云服务上有极佳利润率

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00:09:30,879 --> 00:09:33,919
亚马逊的护城河已形成

243
00:09:33,919 --> 00:09:36,399
这改变了局势

244
00:09:36,399 --> 00:09:39,480
因为很难不看好

245
00:09:39,480 --> 00:09:41,370
亚马逊的长期前景

246
00:09:45,389 --> 00:09:49,610
但作为投资者必须接受这些风险

247
00:09:49,610 --> 00:09:50,490
高回报率

248
00:09:50,490 --> 00:09:51,250
正如我之前所说

249
00:09:51,250 --> 00:09:52,839
看起来不错

250
00:09:52,839 --> 00:09:55,339
看看它如何契合你的投资组合

251
00:09:55,339 --> 00:09:55,739
现在

252
00:09:55,739 --> 00:09:58,239
我最喜欢的马斯克特斯拉

253
00:09:58,239 --> 00:10:01,960
当然市盈率只有三百四十

254
00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:08,250
如果涨到六百六十且特斯拉不减半净利润

255
00:10:08,250 --> 00:10:09,789
你不会亏钱

256
00:10:09,789 --> 00:10:11,149
现在的承诺是什么

257
00:10:11,149 --> 00:10:12,590
赛博卡车特斯拉

258
00:10:12,590 --> 00:10:14,110
Semi电动卡车

259
00:10:14,110 --> 00:10:15,789
Optimus芯片

260
00:10:15,789 --> 00:10:20,610
这就是下个特斯拉太空探索ipo

261
00:10:20,610 --> 00:10:22,110
纳斯达克新规则

262
00:10:22,110 --> 00:10:24,409
为了登月需要

263
00:10:24,409 --> 00:10:24,789
那个

264
00:10:24,789 --> 00:10:26,720
疯狂仍在继续

265
00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:27,320
埃隆

266
00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:32,359
马斯克擅长玩市值游戏

267
00:10:32,359 --> 00:10:36,538
这给了他实现疯狂承诺的资金

268
00:10:36,538 --> 00:10:37,259
暂时如此

269
00:10:37,259 --> 00:10:39,658
我们尚未看到真实利润

270
00:10:39,658 --> 00:10:43,169
暂时还能维持

271
00:10:43,169 --> 00:10:45,049
我成了特斯拉的傻瓜

272
00:10:45,049 --> 00:10:47,309
只是出于乐趣

273
00:10:47,309 --> 00:10:50,328
接下来五年到十年我都这么坚持

274
00:10:50,328 --> 00:10:56,009
但若想获得真正的股东回报

275
00:10:56,009 --> 00:11:00,519
我不知道我们看字母表市盈率二五

276
00:11:00,519 --> 00:11:03,120
股票小幅下跌

277
00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:03,779
是的

278
00:11:03,779 --> 00:11:04,799
我使用它

279
00:11:04,799 --> 00:11:07,740
但不如谷歌主导

280
00:11:07,740 --> 00:11:08,919
但话说回来

281
00:11:08,919 --> 00:11:10,080
我看看营收

282
00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:11,159
谷歌增长

283
00:11:11,159 --> 00:11:12,259
一切都在增长

284
00:11:12,259 --> 00:11:12,740
YouTube

285
00:11:12,740 --> 00:11:14,399
感谢观看请订阅

286
00:11:14,399 --> 00:11:14,960
点赞

287
00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:16,720
我们都爱YouTube

288
00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:20,740
一切看起来很棒营收在增长

289
00:11:20,740 --> 00:11:23,980
然而资本支出也在增长

290
00:11:23,980 --> 00:11:27,259
不再是轻资产模式

291
00:11:27,259 --> 00:11:28,159
轻资产

292
00:11:28,159 --> 00:11:28,519
现在

293
00:11:28,519 --> 00:11:31,090
已成为重资产业务

294
00:11:31,090 --> 00:11:33,409
我的关键因素是

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00:11:33,409 --> 00:11:35,309
如果AI如此聪明

296
00:11:35,309 --> 00:11:36,950
能否吞噬

297
00:11:36,950 --> 00:11:37,409
AI

298
00:11:37,409 --> 00:11:38,789
这才是核心问题

299
00:11:38,789 --> 00:11:40,549
这就是我为何不会投资

300
00:11:40,549 --> 00:11:42,029
例如谷歌

301
00:11:42,029 --> 00:11:48,980
因为正在进行的技术革命可能还会更加强劲

302
00:11:50,159 --> 00:11:53,080
我绝不敢冒险下注

303
00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:55,230
谷歌会成为赢家

304
00:11:55,230 --> 00:11:57,730
或能维持其护城河

305
00:11:57,730 --> 00:12:01,168
苹果最后不投资的

306
00:12:01,168 --> 00:12:01,708
人工智能

307
00:12:01,708 --> 00:12:03,609
资本支出几乎持平

308
00:12:03,609 --> 00:12:05,769
你们都在投资

309
00:12:05,769 --> 00:12:07,809
我们会利用你们

310
00:12:07,809 --> 00:12:09,070
你们的投资

311
00:12:09,070 --> 00:12:10,610
我们将继续回购股票

312
00:12:10,610 --> 00:12:13,669
股价并未大幅下跌

313
00:12:13,669 --> 00:12:15,250
市盈率高达三十

314
00:12:15,250 --> 00:12:16,309
大家都很满意

315
00:12:16,309 --> 00:12:18,769
对我来说就是现金流机器

316
00:12:18,769 --> 00:12:19,669
同行业市盈率

317
00:12:19,669 --> 00:12:20,909
三十过高

318
00:12:20,909 --> 00:12:23,789
十五二十会更合适

319
00:12:23,789 --> 00:12:27,169
但它仍是其中最贵的

320
00:12:27,169 --> 00:12:29,870
因为它未投资

321
00:12:29,870 --> 00:12:30,740
人工智能

322
00:12:30,740 --> 00:12:34,259
这非常有趣的差异化策略

323
00:12:34,259 --> 00:12:36,200
苹果会是赢家吗

324
00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:38,440
仅仅凭借手机业务

325
00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:39,960
你可以使用任何设备

326
00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:40,600
人工智能

327
00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:43,120
其他公司正在争夺

328
00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:45,360
非常独特的差异化方法

329
00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:50,289
但三十的市盈率让我保持警惕

330
00:12:50,289 --> 00:12:52,250
甚至告诉巴菲特抛售

331
00:12:52,250 --> 00:12:53,429
他已大部分卖出

332
00:12:53,429 --> 00:12:55,190
他听从了我的建议

333
00:12:55,190 --> 00:12:56,149
结论是

334
00:12:56,149 --> 00:12:56,690
是的

335
00:12:56,690 --> 00:12:58,490
短期反弹行情

336
00:12:58,490 --> 00:13:00,610
我处理得很好

337
00:13:00,610 --> 00:13:01,649
问题是

338
00:13:01,649 --> 00:13:03,470
十年后谁会存在

339
00:13:03,470 --> 00:13:09,750
我已经展示过二十年前只有唯一一家公司

340
00:13:09,750 --> 00:13:13,068
市值前十的企业中

341
00:13:13,068 --> 00:13:14,489
那就是微软

342
00:13:14,489 --> 00:13:17,528
十年前我们还有三家稍多

343
00:13:17,528 --> 00:13:18,469
十年前

344
00:13:18,469 --> 00:13:21,049
苹果伯克希尔仍在此列

345
00:13:21,049 --> 00:13:23,190
及摩根大通

346
00:13:23,190 --> 00:13:25,809
其余全是新公司

347
00:13:25,809 --> 00:13:27,590
现在我们将有SpaceX

348
00:13:27,590 --> 00:13:28,929
谁知道会发生什么

349
00:13:28,929 --> 00:13:34,828
但这些企业已被定价以维持未来十年的主导地位

350
00:13:34,828 --> 00:13:36,948
但全世界都在追逐

351
00:13:36,948 --> 00:13:44,340
而全世界现在可以用他们生产的低价工具颠覆他们

352
00:13:44,340 --> 00:13:46,059
这就是游戏规则

353
00:13:46,059 --> 00:13:47,720
这使得它变得非常

354
00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:49,200
极其危险

355
00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:50,639
在评论区告诉我

356
00:13:50,639 --> 00:13:54,259
十年后哪些企业会更强大

357
00:13:54,259 --> 00:13:55,940
哪些会更弱

358
00:13:55,940 --> 00:13:57,679
哪些会消失

359
00:13:57,679 --> 00:13:59,840
查看我在研究平台上的内容

360
00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:01,820
价值完全不同

361
00:14:01,820 --> 00:14:06,590
投资那些我确信五到十年后仍存在的公司

362
00:14:06,590 --> 00:14:08,000
更强大且更优秀

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