【Financial Education】美股变天？现在该怎么做

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有时候当你翻�饼

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�能没完全翻好

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但先�存起�

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虽然�完�

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但先�存起�

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这就是我今天对市场走势的感觉

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女士们先生们

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我的头�核心�仓

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A和D股下跌超3%

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但我们仅下跌3600点且�日跌幅3600点

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今天我们就��这个结�

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这是我们今天的胜利

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好的

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认真说

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女士们先生们

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市场正在�生�大�化

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我得解释当�情况

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�常��

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我已解释过

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这是上周�到的内容

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�将开始讨论

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并观察其�展趋势

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我们先�视频开头讲起

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所有投资者应关注的市场类�

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需�寻找投资机会的市场

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�应该��的市场

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比如�寻找机会的市场

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好的

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�下���应�尔街观点

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交易市场�调行情

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他们称这是市场�调

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别闹了

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真的那么糟糕�

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�在

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我记录下�

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切�

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这有点夸张

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期待�应五�时�的评论

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然��应昨日内容

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汤姆·�在CBC出镜

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期待�应他对市场走�的看法

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猜猜看

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我们必须制造点�剧性

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汤姆·��续在CBC出�

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这是利好消�

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�续两日表�

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汤姆·�刚一�时�

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最新市场走势�康且�会动摇科技股行情

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我期待�应这一点

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感谢大家收看

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今天这个视频里有很多内容需�处�

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�有一件事 我需�你�一件事

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在我们开始之�

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请点个�

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点那个���

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感谢已�完�的��

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�常感谢

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谢谢你们 记得订阅频�

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如�你还没订阅

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你在�什么呢

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你们那边在翻�饼�

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拜托啊兄弟

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确�已订阅频�

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女士们先生们注�

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我们正在���象级�化

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我们有轮动行情

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当�市场中开始显�动�的股票是消费 discretionary 类

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这些股票开始积累大�动�

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我正在观察�ELF这样的股票 试图�返上涨轨�

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ELF正在�返上涨轨�

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�涨六�元

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今日涨幅

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昨日表�也很强劲

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没错

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看revolve今日上涨近4%

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Nike今日上涨超3%

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American Express今日涨2%

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Honest�续上涨

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K�续走高

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看K正在逼近70�元

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没错

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å—¯

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Celsius

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终��得一点动�

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消费 discretionary 类股票

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�ELF这样的股票正在��

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这其��该是消费 discretionary 类

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个人观点

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更应��消费必需�

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但目��归类为消费 discretionary

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最终收盘时

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比如你需�化妆

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购买ELF这类�妆产�

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例如

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大部分产�价格����元

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没错

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无论��好�

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好�

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消费 discretionary 股通常指销售给消费者的股票

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但并�必需�类别 正确

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�是他们将�精�一样的股票投入其中

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但说��我觉得它们更�是消费必需�

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一�围绕旋转的股票堪称完�

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消费�必需�类股票

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没人需�花那么多钱在购物和旋转上

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呃

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平�客户交易�通常��上

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在revolve网站上一直维�在三百�元左�

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没人需�在�衣裙和高跟�上花这么多钱

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以�他们销售的其他商�

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然�他们还有高端业务线

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称为forward

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并在那里销售大�高端产�

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没人需�这么�对�

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�克唱那首歌

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没人需��买一��克�对�

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这是你需��出的决定

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�国�通这类股票也�消费�必需���上涨

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我们看到这些领域有很多上涨动能

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�此�时科技��出�疲软

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对啊 比如amd和苹�

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苹�近期表��常疲软

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苹�如此疲软的�因

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是此�对最新WWDC的高预期

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呃

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结�大失所望

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他们�到�年将�出�AI Siri相关的新�

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但具体时间尚未确定

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人们感到�常失望

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短期内苹�的市场情绪会相当负�

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请记�这一点

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amd和微芯

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这类股票近期有所下跌

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但��放弃这些股票

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��放弃这些股票

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是的

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正如我之�所说

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这些股票�能�间上涨30%

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所以���估这些股票

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是的

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正如我说的，SaaS类股票似�已�底

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但它们

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你知�的

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整体�较为疲软

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尚未准备好

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呃

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还未�动强劲�弹对�

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��未�信����朗

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我认为revolve将继续��强势

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这是我几个月�就�醒过大家的

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对

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你知�的

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很多人对我感到沮丧，就�

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天啊兄弟

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股票会有一个好日�，涨到六百多

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然�马上就跌��了

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��

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我几个月�就警告过大家关�meta

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我早在二月份就警告过大家关�meta

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当我看到那些cax数�时

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我说

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呃

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哦

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就�测�

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正如我所说

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这个频�和主频���强调meta数�次

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�设

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如�你想知�股票何时开始上涨

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将会是这两�情况之一

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��，�克伯格必须给出�确的计划

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我们�所有这些投入中将赚�巨�利润

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因为大家都在关注并说

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为什么我们今年�花一百多亿�元在资本支出上

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那��样

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呃

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Instagram能��更相关的广告

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然�为用户�供更好的内容

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内容以留�用户

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这就是我们花费一百亿的�因

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必须超过这个数�

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必须超过这个数�

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因此�克伯格必须让公众�解我们投入的资金

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因为这将大幅�加未�的收入

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远�止�

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你知�的

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展示更多相关视频和图片

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好的

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让用户�留更长时间在平�

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为广告商�供更好的投资�报�远�止�此

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没错，直到�克伯格能�供具体的数�预测

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这就是我们的方�

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这就是我们��的

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人们�会感到安心买入股票

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因为他们会考虑

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未�几年将��生的巨�折旧

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因为他们购买的所有芯片

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将在�益表中大幅影�折旧费用

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没错，这将被确认为费用

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并将�害未��股收益�长

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他们投入的越多

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它会猛烈冲击

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好的

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这需�你�解清楚

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�一个潜在问题是他必须�少开支

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我们知�今年这�情况�会�生

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但�年或�年�能会出�这�情况

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或者大幅削�支出

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就�

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我们�会��相�或�幅�加

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但如�他�次大幅上涨，�年�会继续

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短期内没人会安心买入Meta股票

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所以如�你能�确这两个问题中的任何一个

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股价将涨到一�

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而且很快就能��

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直到�确这两个问题中的任何一个

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没人会买入这类股票

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股价将长期维�在500-600�元区间

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所以记�这一点

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我已在频�多次解释过

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在主频�过�几个月里

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这就是�状

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所以

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如�你是长期投资者

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��感到沮丧

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我�解作为交易者试图�多看涨期�

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但为何�在Meta上�多看涨期�

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在当�支出�境下

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�在这样�很��智

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�过

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你知�的

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如�你是长期投资者

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你知�的

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利用这个�确定性窗���Meta仓�

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当市场充满�确定性时�步加仓

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这通常是最佳策略

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å—¯

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�当Meta�临�大�确定性时

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正是最佳买入时机

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但必须�解

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如�市场出�严�下跌

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无论什么�因

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黑天鹅事件�生

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马克股价暴跌

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Meta跌至350�元

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这并��味�一定会�生

246
00:07:49,889 --> 00:07:52,990
但有人会问600�元�么�

247
00:07:52,990 --> 00:07:54,310
如何跌到350�元

248
00:07:54,310 --> 00:07:57,704
我曾��Meta�300涨到88

249
00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:02,339
我曾��Meta IPO时38�元起价

250
00:08:02,339 --> 00:08:03,459
几个月�

251
00:08:03,459 --> 00:08:06,100
18�时医疗系统崩溃

252
00:08:06,100 --> 00:08:07,870
系统开始崩溃

253
00:08:07,990 --> 00:08:09,350
但这并��味�全部

254
00:08:09,350 --> 00:08:09,850
肯定如此

255
00:08:09,850 --> 00:08:11,069
正在�近350或类似水平

256
00:08:11,069 --> 00:08:13,750
但你必须�解如�市场�挫

257
00:08:13,750 --> 00:08:16,329
�消�将导致跌至350

258
00:08:16,329 --> 00:08:19,329
所以你知�但���赖这一点并说

259
00:08:19,329 --> 00:08:19,490
哦

260
00:08:19,490 --> 00:08:20,670
我会等到350点

261
00:08:20,670 --> 00:08:23,600
因为�说得准市场会崩盘

262
00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:27,629
但我想让大家�白潜在的下行�险

263
00:08:27,629 --> 00:08:29,709
这样你�能心�准备

264
00:08:29,709 --> 00:08:31,490
以防市场大幅下跌

265
00:08:31,490 --> 00:08:36,048
你必须�时为��情景�好心�准备

266
00:08:36,048 --> 00:08:38,229
我对所有股票都有心�准备

267
00:08:38,229 --> 00:08:40,288
以�它们�能的��价格

268
00:08:40,288 --> 00:08:42,799
如�市场因任何�因�化

269
00:08:42,799 --> 00:08:44,779
没错，你永远�知�黑天鹅事件

270
00:08:44,779 --> 00:08:46,379
一旦达到那个点

271
00:08:46,379 --> 00:08:50,909
心�上已清楚最�情况

272
00:08:50,909 --> 00:08:51,909
我们�以应对

273
00:08:51,909 --> 00:08:54,070
任何��预期的都是��一碟

274
00:08:54,070 --> 00:08:55,049
这就是柠檬�

275
00:08:55,049 --> 00:08:55,549
没错

276
00:08:55,549 --> 00:08:57,750
所以我们正在�情景预测

277
00:08:57,750 --> 00:09:01,590
这些因素确�需�考虑

278
00:09:01,590 --> 00:09:02,350
�在

279
00:09:02,350 --> 00:09:05,590
看到这些股票表�优异

280
00:09:05,590 --> 00:09:05,710
看

281
00:09:05,710 --> 00:09:07,710
看看今天的房地产股走势

282
00:09:07,710 --> 00:09:08,149
没错

283
00:09:08,149 --> 00:09:08,669
呃

284
00:09:08,669 --> 00:09:13,298
这�能表�利�将下调

285
00:09:13,298 --> 00:09:13,639
没错

286
00:09:13,639 --> 00:09:15,690
并相信��将好转

287
00:09:15,690 --> 00:09:18,730
消费者�必需�股�会上涨

288
00:09:18,730 --> 00:09:20,350
房地产相关股也�会上涨

289
00:09:20,350 --> 00:09:22,750
除�人们确信利�将下�

290
00:09:22,750 --> 00:09:27,309
且��在未�一年改善

291
00:09:27,309 --> 00:09:28,409
在未�几年

292
00:09:28,409 --> 00:09:29,529
存在这�预期

293
00:09:29,529 --> 00:09:30,269
�在

294
00:09:30,269 --> 00:09:31,960
我们将观察是��真

295
00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:34,639
但必须�解市场在传递什么信�

296
00:09:34,639 --> 00:09:35,799
市场在告诉你

297
00:09:35,799 --> 00:09:37,940
当消费者�必需�股上涨时

298
00:09:37,940 --> 00:09:40,200
当房地产相关股上涨时

299
00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:43,039
这就是市场在暗示利�将下调

300
00:09:43,039 --> 00:09:45,019
未�几年��将好转

301
00:09:45,019 --> 00:09:46,519
通胀�会�人们想象的那么糟糕

302
00:09:46,519 --> 00:09:48,179
正如人们认为它会�展�那样

303
00:09:48,179 --> 00:09:48,960
有件事需�说

304
00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:49,500
呃

305
00:09:49,500 --> 00:09:51,659
关�这一点请记�

306
00:09:51,659 --> 00:09:55,360
我教的股票走势也�常�错

307
00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:56,220
今天到场

308
00:09:56,220 --> 00:09:56,799
好的

309
00:09:56,799 --> 00:09:57,440
我们继续�

310
00:09:57,440 --> 00:09:59,100
让我们看看�尔街动�

311
00:09:59,100 --> 00:10:00,820
包括两�托姆·�的视频

312
00:10:00,820 --> 00:10:02,179
哦在开始之�

313
00:10:02,179 --> 00:10:04,299
如�你想申请加入�密群组

314
00:10:04,299 --> 00:10:06,419
想����能�为股票市场大师课程

315
00:10:06,419 --> 00:10:07,419
��百万富�

316
00:10:07,419 --> 00:10:08,318
�作手册课程

317
00:10:08,318 --> 00:10:09,058
股票期�

318
00:10:09,058 --> 00:10:12,539
财务报表精通投资策略课程

319
00:10:12,539 --> 00:10:14,179
精通如何正确估值股票

320
00:10:14,179 --> 00:10:14,419
你知�的

321
00:10:14,419 --> 00:10:15,899
如�你正在以��价格购买课程

322
00:10:15,899 --> 00:10:17,620
当你想购买这类课程时

323
00:10:17,620 --> 00:10:19,139
想���我的�密Discord

324
00:10:19,139 --> 00:10:22,799
访问thousandxbox.com��独家周更视频

325
00:10:22,799 --> 00:10:24,419
看到我�周的�作策略

326
00:10:24,419 --> 00:10:24,919
天啊

327
00:10:24,919 --> 00:10:25,519
你能�得很多资�

328
00:10:25,519 --> 00:10:26,240
你�抓�这个机会

329
00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:28,690
会员�将寄�到家

330
00:10:28,690 --> 00:10:29,889
加入我的�密社群

331
00:10:29,889 --> 00:10:31,169
那就是下方置顶评论

332
00:10:31,169 --> 00:10:33,789
我们�将关闭新�员加入通�

333
00:10:33,789 --> 00:10:37,039
如�想加入请尽快行动

334
00:10:37,039 --> 00:10:38,820
因为我们�将关闭新�员注册

335
00:10:38,820 --> 00:10:41,139
我们将长时间暂�新�员加入

336
00:10:41,139 --> 00:10:44,120
请务必注�需求�常�爆

337
00:10:44,120 --> 00:10:47,179
我想�度�几周

338
00:10:47,179 --> 00:10:48,980
我也想让团队好好休�

339
00:10:48,980 --> 00:10:50,059
所有�好事物

340
00:10:50,059 --> 00:10:50,480
好的

341
00:10:50,480 --> 00:10:52,480
�次强调我将继续制作内容

342
00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:54,789
当然���密群组

343
00:10:54,789 --> 00:10:56,250
当我休�期间

344
00:10:56,250 --> 00:10:59,490
市场真的在大幅下行

345
00:10:59,490 --> 00:11:02,370
纳斯达克下跌近600点

346
00:11:02,370 --> 00:11:02,710
�在

347
00:11:02,710 --> 00:11:03,990
下跌2.3%

348
00:11:03,990 --> 00:11:07,610
但其他市场�有抛售

349
00:11:07,610 --> 00:11:10,570
但正如迈克·桑托利刚�所说

350
00:11:10,570 --> 00:11:13,690
纽约�交所上涨股票多�下跌

351
00:11:13,690 --> 00:11:15,730
这很值得注�

352
00:11:15,730 --> 00:11:16,289
乔什

353
00:11:16,289 --> 00:11:16,690
我们

354
00:11:16,690 --> 00:11:17,330
你知�的

355
00:11:17,330 --> 00:11:19,929
看看这个市场在�什么

356
00:11:19,929 --> 00:11:22,809
我�白所有人都在关注科技��

357
00:11:22,809 --> 00:11:24,750
但就�迈克刚�说的

358
00:11:24,750 --> 00:11:26,960
这就是轮动的表�

359
00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:29,610
这就是轮动的感觉

360
00:11:29,610 --> 00:11:31,289
并�总是那么好看

361
00:11:31,289 --> 00:11:35,029
标普指数�到的影�最大

362
00:11:35,029 --> 00:11:38,078
�科技股�调拖累

363
00:11:38,678 --> 00:11:39,198
是的

364
00:11:39,198 --> 00:11:45,830
我认为这对�有这类�一化投资组�的人是个大问题

365
00:11:45,830 --> 00:11:48,169
因为他们以为自己分散了�险

366
00:11:48,169 --> 00:11:50,899
因为他们�有戴尔��娜

367
00:11:50,899 --> 00:11:51,980
�科

368
00:11:51,980 --> 00:11:54,460
康�和微软

369
00:11:54,460 --> 00:11:56,779
�际上他们所�的就是

370
00:11:56,779 --> 00:11:57,480
他们加�

371
00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:01,919
三�和四�押注AI资本支出主题

372
00:12:01,919 --> 00:12:03,200
然�他们说

373
00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:03,740
等等

374
00:12:03,740 --> 00:12:05,309
一个是计算机公�

375
00:12:05,309 --> 00:12:06,590
一个是通信�业

376
00:12:06,590 --> 00:12:07,830
一个是公用事业

377
00:12:07,830 --> 00:12:08,029
等等

378
00:12:08,029 --> 00:12:08,950
等等�

379
00:12:08,950 --> 00:12:09,389
è¿™

380
00:12:09,389 --> 00:12:12,330
这�是一个�一主题的投资

381
00:12:12,330 --> 00:12:15,730
顺便说，这是市场最高动�领域

382
00:12:15,730 --> 00:12:20,599
当指数�天上涨�点时感觉很棒

383
00:12:20,599 --> 00:12:21,958
但今天�是这样

384
00:12:21,958 --> 00:12:24,700
我认为周五是个很好的警钟

385
00:12:24,700 --> 00:12:26,980
我认为很多人开始��

386
00:12:26,980 --> 00:12:28,269
我赚了�少

387
00:12:28,269 --> 00:12:31,470
但或许应该�置其他资产

388
00:12:31,470 --> 00:12:32,309
我的投资组�

389
00:12:32,309 --> 00:12:33,470
��帮个忙

390
00:12:33,470 --> 00:12:34,309
调出

391
00:12:34,309 --> 00:12:35,059
å—¯

392
00:12:35,059 --> 00:12:36,220
调出光�ETF

393
00:12:36,220 --> 00:12:36,980
Loh A Scott

394
00:12:36,980 --> 00:12:38,460
它今日上涨

395
00:12:38,460 --> 00:12:39,828
它是绿色的

396
00:12:39,828 --> 00:12:40,489
å—¯

397
00:12:40,489 --> 00:12:41,989
它��有这些标的

398
00:12:41,989 --> 00:12:45,708
这是光�ETF的主�贡献者

399
00:12:45,708 --> 00:12:46,308
拉尔夫

400
00:12:46,308 --> 00:12:46,708
拉夫·劳伦

401
00:12:46,708 --> 00:12:47,408
家得�

402
00:12:47,408 --> 00:12:48,208
Clorox

403
00:12:48,208 --> 00:12:49,109
马斯科

404
00:12:49,109 --> 00:12:50,448
洛�高露�

405
00:12:50,448 --> 00:12:52,629
这些股票今天全都上涨了3%

406
00:12:52,629 --> 00:12:55,288
康斯伯格瓶装公�

407
00:12:55,288 --> 00:12:56,179
��商

408
00:12:56,179 --> 00:12:59,240
今天这些股票全都上涨了3%

409
00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:01,799
一天之内为何没有基本�支撑

410
00:13:01,799 --> 00:13:04,779
这些公�并无特殊之处

411
00:13:04,779 --> 00:13:06,340
�是市场认�

412
00:13:06,340 --> 00:13:08,059
桑托利所说的

413
00:13:08,059 --> 00:13:08,639
呃

414
00:13:08,639 --> 00:13:09,419
刚�

415
00:13:09,419 --> 00:13:09,919
å—¯

416
00:13:09,919 --> 00:13:11,840
这些旋转的扭矩

417
00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:12,399
å—¯

418
00:13:12,399 --> 00:13:15,889
如�你�分散投资开始

419
00:13:15,889 --> 00:13:17,929
且��有整个投资组�

420
00:13:17,929 --> 00:13:22,210
押注AI资本支出未�愈��谬

421
00:13:22,210 --> 00:13:24,610
今天行情并�糟糕

422
00:13:25,980 --> 00:13:27,860
 bingo�好

423
00:13:29,500 --> 00:13:31,990
这就是分散投资的作用

424
00:13:31,990 --> 00:13:33,210
很容易说

425
00:13:33,210 --> 00:13:33,590
你知�的

426
00:13:33,590 --> 00:13:35,029
因为AI�题�续�酵

427
00:13:35,029 --> 00:13:35,470
就�

428
00:13:35,470 --> 00:13:36,750
我们全仓押注A和D

429
00:13:36,750 --> 00:13:38,230
全仓押注�光科技

430
00:13:38,230 --> 00:13:38,690
对�

431
00:13:38,690 --> 00:13:39,149
哦

432
00:13:39,149 --> 00:13:40,509
这就是当�策略

433
00:13:40,509 --> 00:13:42,110
这就是在这个游�中翻车的方�

434
00:13:42,110 --> 00:13:43,990
试图追�

435
00:13:43,990 --> 00:13:45,029
所有热门事物

436
00:13:45,029 --> 00:13:47,200
这就是翻车的�因

437
00:13:47,200 --> 00:13:49,779
长期投资者尤其糟糕

438
00:13:49,779 --> 00:13:52,710
G D�长价值股分红

439
00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:59,259
你将被迫抛售�长股

440
00:14:01,940 --> 00:14:05,830
分红�续�放而价值股上涨

441
00:14:10,700 --> 00:14:13,779
资金转�分红和价值股

442
00:14:13,779 --> 00:14:15,539
你的分红价值股表�惊人

443
00:14:15,539 --> 00:14:17,220
�长股被彻底击溃

444
00:14:17,220 --> 00:14:20,559
左�股价暴跌30-80%

445
00:14:23,980 --> 00:14:25,820
分红价值股将更具优势

446
00:14:25,820 --> 00:14:27,840
期间还能�得分红收益

447
00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:30,080
然�你�以将这笔钱�新投资

448
00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:33,578
就�那些在当时被严��估的伟大�长股

449
00:14:33,578 --> 00:14:34,879
所有因素都在�挥作用

450
00:14:34,879 --> 00:14:36,519
所有因素都在�挥作用

451
00:14:36,519 --> 00:14:38,099
所以你知�的

452
00:14:38,099 --> 00:14:40,700
��试图�这个游�

453
00:14:40,700 --> 00:14:43,068
我�专注�我的投资组�

454
00:14:43,068 --> 00:14:44,828
关注资金�下�的�动方�

455
00:14:44,828 --> 00:14:45,668
或者类似的事情

456
00:14:45,668 --> 00:14:47,168
这完全是愚蠢的游�

457
00:14:47,168 --> 00:14:50,259
我�寻找真正的机会

458
00:14:50,259 --> 00:14:50,779
我毫�在�

459
00:14:50,779 --> 00:14:53,740
如�我们进入一个�视�长股的市场

460
00:14:53,740 --> 00:14:54,580
高价值股票

461
00:14:54,580 --> 00:14:55,379
高股�股票

462
00:14:55,379 --> 00:14:56,059
我�寻找

463
00:14:56,059 --> 00:14:57,340
当时最好的�报在哪里

464
00:14:57,340 --> 00:14:58,659
我在那个特定时间�得的

465
00:14:58,659 --> 00:15:00,320
�些�长股周期

466
00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:02,639
�些价值或股�股周期

467
00:15:02,639 --> 00:15:05,320
我�寻找所有存在的机会

468
00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:09,928
作为三到五年或�年�的投资者

469
00:15:09,928 --> 00:15:10,528
投资者

470
00:15:10,528 --> 00:15:12,109
这就是我需�投资的地方

471
00:15:12,109 --> 00:15:12,708
å—¯

472
00:15:12,708 --> 00:15:14,210
但你正在

473
00:15:14,210 --> 00:15:15,070
呃

474
00:15:15,070 --> 00:15:20,059
你正被标普和纳斯达克的表�所误导

475
00:15:20,059 --> 00:15:22,720
认为这是股票组�的代表

476
00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:26,019
但这对大多数投资者并�适用

477
00:15:26,019 --> 00:15:26,740
ä¹”

478
00:15:26,740 --> 00:15:27,659
这就是

479
00:15:27,659 --> 00:15:28,200
呃

480
00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:31,470
我�知�你是�用'剧烈'这个�

481
00:15:31,470 --> 00:15:31,990
但我的��是

482
00:15:31,990 --> 00:15:35,029
这就是轮动�能呈�的样�

483
00:15:35,029 --> 00:15:36,379
它�会是

484
00:15:36,379 --> 00:15:37,039
你知�的

485
00:15:37,039 --> 00:15:37,960
这个��点

486
00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:40,639
让我们�科技股中撤出部分收益

487
00:15:40,639 --> 00:15:42,419
然�转入市场的其他领域

488
00:15:42,419 --> 00:15:43,110
我的��是

489
00:15:43,110 --> 00:15:44,730
市场正在大幅下跌

490
00:15:44,730 --> 00:15:46,019
相当�错

491
00:15:46,019 --> 00:15:49,139
巴克�将动�评级下调至中性

492
00:15:49,139 --> 00:15:52,149
这显然正好符�你的专长

493
00:15:52,149 --> 00:15:56,000
乔纳森·克�斯基今日表示科技股尚未脱险

494
00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:57,500
以��为�考

495
00:15:57,500 --> 00:16:01,889
并指出当纳斯达克在周五下跌4%或更多时

496
00:16:01,889 --> 00:16:04,850
周五�点有90%的概�

497
00:16:04,850 --> 00:16:07,389
在未�五个交易日内将被�破

498
00:16:07,389 --> 00:16:10,330
我们认为这次情况并无��

499
00:16:10,330 --> 00:16:13,960
或许市场已�开始����这一点

500
00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:18,200
周五�生的事情需��新测试

501
00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:19,960
昨日的�弹

502
00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:21,379
什么

503
00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:26,169
这�是一次�弹，没有更多了

504
00:16:26,330 --> 00:16:26,789
是的

505
00:16:26,789 --> 00:16:30,450
我喜欢你对这一切的�述方�

506
00:16:30,450 --> 00:16:32,440
无论是油价下跌

507
00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:33,720
收益�上�

508
00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:37,799
还是AI交易的抛物线走势

509
00:16:37,799 --> 00:16:43,139
市场正在��轮动已�分�确

510
00:16:43,139 --> 00:16:46,649
如�你还记得三月�

511
00:16:46,649 --> 00:16:51,590
我们曾指出市场�价值股转��长股

512
00:16:51,590 --> 00:16:55,309
我�在看到的正是确凿��

513
00:16:55,309 --> 00:16:57,169
表�市场正在轮动

514
00:16:57,169 --> 00:17:00,710
�标普市值转�标普平价股

515
00:17:00,710 --> 00:17:02,389
正在飙�

516
00:17:02,389 --> 00:17:03,029
但请�我说

517
00:17:03,029 --> 00:17:04,509
��������

518
00:17:04,509 --> 00:17:05,368
好的

519
00:17:05,368 --> 00:17:08,429
我看到这�股票暴跌了

520
00:17:08,429 --> 00:17:10,660
���高点下跌5%

521
00:17:10,660 --> 00:17:11,099
好的

522
00:17:11,099 --> 00:17:13,640
我们��夸大其�，��

523
00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:14,279
天啊

524
00:17:14,279 --> 00:17:15,699
股市正在崩盘

525
00:17:15,699 --> 00:17:18,439
这�股票���高点下跌5%

526
00:17:18,439 --> 00:17:21,569
这根本�算什么

527
00:17:21,569 --> 00:17:23,730
当我们谈论纳斯达克

528
00:17:23,730 --> 00:17:25,410
当它下跌20%

529
00:17:25,410 --> 00:17:28,368
那我们就�得�

530
00:17:28,368 --> 00:17:30,509
甚至�必关注

531
00:17:30,509 --> 00:17:32,249
直到纳斯达克至少下跌10%

532
00:17:32,249 --> 00:17:34,469
对，因为它�能下跌5%

533
00:17:34,469 --> 00:17:35,648
7%�时�生

534
00:17:35,648 --> 00:17:37,380
这�情况�天都在�生

535
00:17:37,380 --> 00:17:38,380
10%�算正常

536
00:17:38,380 --> 00:17:39,420
�能开始关注

537
00:17:39,420 --> 00:17:40,859
20%�算�显

538
00:17:40,859 --> 00:17:42,579
�在出�较大�调

539
00:17:42,579 --> 00:17:44,519
30%�在�是真正严�

540
00:17:44,519 --> 00:17:45,920
当资产下跌30%

541
00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:46,599
以上

542
00:17:46,599 --> 00:17:46,940
没错

543
00:17:46,940 --> 00:17:47,740
但天啊

544
00:17:47,740 --> 00:17:49,829
���高点下跌5%

545
00:17:49,984 --> 00:17:51,289
��长股转�价值股

546
00:17:51,289 --> 00:17:54,589
�动�股转�优质股，正如Josh所言

547
00:17:54,589 --> 00:17:56,730
这��无形资产

548
00:17:56,730 --> 00:17:58,539
�在转�有形资产

549
00:17:58,539 --> 00:18:00,119
这��其本质

550
00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:03,900
标普500指数的斯科特正在等待

551
00:18:03,900 --> 00:18:08,549
你无法��盘�大�下跌

552
00:18:08,549 --> 00:18:10,690
让我给你一个今日数�

553
00:18:10,690 --> 00:18:13,750
标普市值的20%

554
00:18:13,750 --> 00:18:16,460
今日由六�个股��

555
00:18:16,460 --> 00:18:19,420
其中包括苹�和英伟达

556
00:18:21,269 --> 00:18:22,589
我们将关注AMD

557
00:18:22,589 --> 00:18:23,869
我们将关注�通

558
00:18:23,869 --> 00:18:24,990
我们将关注英特尔

559
00:18:24,990 --> 00:18:26,240
我们将关注�光科技

560
00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:27,839
记��光和�通

561
00:18:27,839 --> 00:18:29,829
这些已是�亿�元公�

562
00:18:29,829 --> 00:18:34,319
这六�股票今日�跌超3%

563
00:18:34,319 --> 00:18:36,440
�标普500市值20%

564
00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:41,000
市场无法承�如此跌幅

565
00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:45,179
但显然我们正在轮动

566
00:18:45,179 --> 00:18:47,778
�涨股转�领涨股

567
00:18:47,778 --> 00:18:54,509
若按年�至今表��标普500�五�

568
00:18:54,509 --> 00:18:59,150
当�82%的五��股票下跌

569
00:18:59,150 --> 00:19:03,269
�之观察标普500�五�

570
00:19:03,269 --> 00:19:04,910
猜猜看六�

571
00:19:04,910 --> 00:19:07,920
5%的股票上涨

572
00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:11,420
这正是乔什此�指出的

573
00:19:11,420 --> 00:19:15,160
这是一场�一日之功的轮动

574
00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:18,769
我认为这将�续整个�季马尔科姆

575
00:19:18,769 --> 00:19:23,809
在高度集中的市场中上涨阶段�利

576
00:19:23,809 --> 00:19:27,569
投资者显然��了这一过程

577
00:19:27,569 --> 00:19:30,569
若主�押注AI交易

578
00:19:30,569 --> 00:19:33,779
若�有大盘股

579
00:19:33,779 --> 00:19:40,440
显然今日享��维度市场收益

580
00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:43,710
但也会在�一端承�痛苦

581
00:19:43,710 --> 00:19:44,869
正如我们所说

582
00:19:44,869 --> 00:19:48,089
这些股票的上涨方�

583
00:19:48,089 --> 00:19:52,190
�能是它们下跌的方�

584
00:19:52,190 --> 00:19:53,009
你知�的

585
00:19:53,009 --> 00:19:53,630
�光科技

586
00:19:53,630 --> 00:19:57,200
有一张�佳图表展示大幅拉�

587
00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:01,980
�能预料股价�撤幅度

588
00:20:01,980 --> 00:20:05,069
但显然昨日�弹�力

589
00:20:05,069 --> 00:20:07,670
股价��七个百分点

590
00:20:07,670 --> 00:20:10,089
��许多芯片股

591
00:20:10,089 --> 00:20:11,250
如AMD

592
00:20:11,250 --> 00:20:12,390
正如乔所说的

593
00:20:12,390 --> 00:20:14,358
今日下跌七个百分点

594
00:20:14,358 --> 00:20:16,858
英特尔�跌七个百分点

595
00:20:16,858 --> 00:20:19,839
这些股票�跟�走势

596
00:20:19,839 --> 00:20:20,440
是的

597
00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:22,240
但别急�下结论，一次翻转和翻转�饼

598
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:23,960
关�微米在�下�的时刻

599
00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:24,420
AMD

600
00:20:24,420 --> 00:20:30,490
投资者们相信这两�股票将在未�显著上涨

601
00:20:30,490 --> 00:20:33,480
我们�以称之为�到�五个月

602
00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:38,200
我知�很多微米投资者认为这�会涨到两�

603
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:40,509
你�能会说

604
00:20:40,509 --> 00:20:41,789
他们有��，他们的投资者

605
00:20:41,789 --> 00:20:43,069
当然他们会认为股价会上涨

606
00:20:43,069 --> 00:20:44,990
但他们的论点相当有力

607
00:20:44,990 --> 00:20:47,369
�股收益正在急剧�长

608
00:20:47,369 --> 00:20:48,529
你知�四颗豌豆

609
00:20:48,529 --> 00:20:51,809
如�这个周期比预期更长

610
00:20:51,809 --> 00:20:54,849
他们有�由相信股价�能涨到两�

611
00:20:54,849 --> 00:20:55,890
但这并��味�一定会�生

612
00:20:55,890 --> 00:20:59,200
但�以说他们的论点在

613
00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:00,380
D股涨到一�

614
00:21:00,380 --> 00:21:03,029
在未��到�五个月内

615
00:21:03,029 --> 00:21:07,589
他们很�能将��几个令人震惊的季度

616
00:21:07,589 --> 00:21:10,359
他们甚至还没有出�过这样的季度

617
00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:12,359
我们�是�到类似

618
00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:12,640
哦

619
00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:14,980
A和D�将疯狂

620
00:21:14,980 --> 00:21:17,519
当我们开始看到一些惊喜

621
00:21:17,519 --> 00:21:21,180
AMD未�的几个季度指引

622
00:21:21,180 --> 00:21:24,970
我觉得还没人准备好

623
00:21:24,970 --> 00:21:30,079
我们甚至还没看到这�情况

624
00:21:30,079 --> 00:21:33,670
当谈论�续几个季度的惊喜

625
00:21:33,670 --> 00:21:35,069
会强力�动股价

626
00:21:35,069 --> 00:21:38,750
本质上是这�势头和热情

627
00:21:38,750 --> 00:21:40,789
简直难以想象

628
00:21:40,789 --> 00:21:43,509
其�力远超以往

629
00:21:43,509 --> 00:21:49,289
说AMD能�在�二个月内�四百涨到一�

630
00:21:49,569 --> 00:21:51,150
我�觉得��能

631
00:21:51,150 --> 00:21:54,130
如�他们按照我认为的计划行动

632
00:21:54,130 --> 00:21:55,630
并��几个惊喜季度

633
00:21:55,630 --> 00:22:00,279
这些都是需�特别注�的两�股票

634
00:22:00,279 --> 00:22:01,960
我认为�以安全地说

635
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,740
过�几周的许多押注

636
00:22:04,740 --> 00:22:06,599
多少有些投机性质

637
00:22:06,599 --> 00:22:07,680
�使如此

638
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:09,900
顺便说一�，没人害怕

639
00:22:09,900 --> 00:22:11,680
没有微米股东

640
00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:13,779
AMD股东对任何事情都�怕

641
00:22:13,779 --> 00:22:14,319
你有什么

642
00:22:14,319 --> 00:22:17,338
你为什么害怕Meta谷歌

643
00:22:17,338 --> 00:22:18,038
亚马逊

644
00:22:18,038 --> 00:22:19,878
微软，大家都在说

645
00:22:19,878 --> 00:22:20,638
我们该收手了

646
00:22:20,638 --> 00:22:21,838
资本支出投入

647
00:22:21,838 --> 00:22:22,598
你知��

648
00:22:22,598 --> 00:22:23,490
就是这样

649
00:22:25,809 --> 00:22:27,849
所以你无需任何时候感到害怕

650
00:22:27,849 --> 00:22:30,359
很快就会有让你感到害怕的时刻

651
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:33,299
那时所有大科技公�会说

652
00:22:33,299 --> 00:22:34,680
你知�这到底是什么

653
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:35,839
我们将�放缓

654
00:22:35,839 --> 00:22:36,200
我们的开支

655
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:36,859
大幅削�

656
00:22:36,859 --> 00:22:39,579
那时你必须�常害怕

657
00:22:39,579 --> 00:22:42,900
甚至在达到AMD或�光的时刻之�

658
00:22:42,900 --> 00:22:43,980
这些�类股票

659
00:22:43,980 --> 00:22:45,619
直到达到那个时刻

660
00:22:45,619 --> 00:22:46,659
继续狂欢

661
00:22:46,659 --> 00:22:49,159
所以�在是�到了Meta�谷歌

662
00:22:49,159 --> 00:22:49,959
微软

663
00:22:49,959 --> 00:22:50,419
亚马逊

664
00:22:50,419 --> 00:22:51,419
这些大手笔开支者

665
00:22:51,419 --> 00:22:52,278
比如你知�我们�是

666
00:22:52,278 --> 00:22:53,199
我们�缩�开支

667
00:22:53,199 --> 00:22:54,199
我们还没到那个阶段

668
00:22:54,199 --> 00:22:56,359
�年

669
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:57,079
两年�

670
00:22:57,079 --> 00:22:58,279
三年�四年��

671
00:22:58,279 --> 00:22:59,160
我们�能达到那个点

672
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:01,259
但我觉得今天

673
00:23:01,259 --> 00:23:02,038
继续狂欢

674
00:23:02,038 --> 00:23:05,200
�英特尔��光等公�

675
00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:07,559
我认为Josh和Joe说得很对

676
00:23:07,559 --> 00:23:09,680
我希望他们都正确

677
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,119
因为人们终�觉醒了

678
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:17,079
愿�在此处�利了结并将资金�新�置到其他领域

679
00:23:17,079 --> 00:23:20,660
以�其他此�����的资本��

680
00:23:20,660 --> 00:23:23,059
我�完全确定是�如此简�

681
00:23:23,059 --> 00:23:28,019
我认为我们�能正在为IPO�准备

682
00:23:28,019 --> 00:23:32,200
但我认为或许有�能

683
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:33,839
我之�几周一直在说

684
00:23:33,839 --> 00:23:36,059
在这些更投机的股票中

685
00:23:36,059 --> 00:23:37,180
尤其是�光

686
00:23:37,180 --> 00:23:37,819
我会挑刺

687
00:23:37,819 --> 00:23:38,759
既然你�到了

688
00:23:38,759 --> 00:23:42,240
其市值在两个月内翻�

689
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:47,200
�在必须��地说这�情况��能永远�续

690
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:49,359
我们一直�愿承认这一点

691
00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:52,140
这看起��常�90年代末

692
00:23:52,140 --> 00:23:55,609
我们一直在�力寻找�由�定

693
00:23:55,609 --> 00:23:57,049
或许更�96年

694
00:23:57,049 --> 00:23:57,920
97å¹´

695
00:23:57,920 --> 00:23:59,640
我强烈�对

696
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:02,460
我们正在谈论2025年�年的情况

697
00:24:02,460 --> 00:24:03,759
�是为了举例说�

698
00:24:03,759 --> 00:24:05,500
IPO筹集了约四

699
00:24:05,500 --> 00:24:10,099
2026年�计�资三亿�元

700
00:24:10,099 --> 00:24:14,799
我们正在讨论三家�计�资约两百亿

701
00:24:14,799 --> 00:24:16,619
这笔资金�何而�

702
00:24:16,619 --> 00:24:20,019
如�这些更具投机性的股票未能售罄

703
00:24:20,019 --> 00:24:21,380
包括比特�

704
00:24:21,380 --> 00:24:24,630
我认为这肯定需�注入�些领域

705
00:24:24,630 --> 00:24:27,809
�使存在�AI交易中轮动出货

706
00:24:27,809 --> 00:24:32,659
转�更优质的或更冷�的股票

707
00:24:32,659 --> 00:24:34,519
也许就是这样�姆

708
00:24:34,519 --> 00:24:35,038
你知�的

709
00:24:35,038 --> 00:24:39,949
你看到的有些情况无疑�SpaceX相关

710
00:24:39,949 --> 00:24:45,839
IPO正在筹备投资组�以周五买入该股

711
00:24:45,839 --> 00:24:46,859
在开盘交易时

712
00:24:46,859 --> 00:24:50,759
或许散户群体主导了这一趋势

713
00:24:50,759 --> 00:24:54,210
无论是上涨还是下跌阶段

714
00:24:54,210 --> 00:24:56,750
我觉得我们需�讨论苹�

715
00:24:56,750 --> 00:24:58,869
因为它是个���动者

716
00:24:58,869 --> 00:25:01,529
你�有该股 昨天和我们在一起

717
00:25:01,529 --> 00:25:01,910
å—¯

718
00:25:01,910 --> 00:25:04,009
�在股价大幅下跌

719
00:25:04,009 --> 00:25:05,789
你知�他们�布了

720
00:25:05,789 --> 00:25:07,769
你知�Siri AI

721
00:25:07,769 --> 00:25:08,690
他们�出了新应用

722
00:25:08,690 --> 00:25:10,690
引�了很大热情

723
00:25:10,690 --> 00:25:12,700
我认为昨天�期就已显�

724
00:25:12,700 --> 00:25:14,519
但�起�

725
00:25:14,519 --> 00:25:20,619
或者至少市场会严肃质疑

726
00:25:20,619 --> 00:25:23,700
这对他们的AI未�究竟�味�什么

727
00:25:23,700 --> 00:25:28,960
他们是���了什么�有待观察

728
00:25:29,519 --> 00:25:29,940
好�

729
00:25:29,940 --> 00:25:32,279
这确�有待观察

730
00:25:32,279 --> 00:25:32,849
斯科特

731
00:25:32,849 --> 00:25:33,329
å—¯

732
00:25:33,329 --> 00:25:36,269
我认为他们已�确了战略

733
00:25:36,269 --> 00:25:38,349
��大幅�加资本支出

734
00:25:38,349 --> 00:25:39,789
�Gemini�作

735
00:25:39,789 --> 00:25:41,429
�谷歌�公�Alphabet�作

736
00:25:41,429 --> 00:25:43,108
使用他们的技术

737
00:25:43,108 --> 00:25:45,328
这是一个�确的战略

738
00:25:45,328 --> 00:25:45,828
å—¯

739
00:25:45,828 --> 00:25:48,529
在�本方�有一定优势

740
00:25:48,529 --> 00:25:49,769
但正如你所说

741
00:25:49,769 --> 00:25:52,690
我们需等待新模�的表�

742
00:25:52,690 --> 00:25:57,299
新Siri在�将到�的�日季是�足够�引人

743
00:25:57,299 --> 00:25:59,740
我认为这里的矛盾始终存在

744
00:25:59,740 --> 00:26:01,230
我们昨天已讨论过

745
00:26:01,230 --> 00:26:04,369
估值�其作为苹�的身份

746
00:26:04,369 --> 00:26:05,470
它拥有iPhone

747
00:26:05,470 --> 00:26:06,960
还包�这些�务

748
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:10,400
而今天和昨天那�紧张局势正���个想法转�

749
00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:12,000
或许它被高估了一些

750
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,299
目�我们看到��市盈�高达32�

751
00:26:14,299 --> 00:26:15,039
�股收益

752
00:26:15,039 --> 00:26:18,920
嗯，这也�能象��纳斯达克

753
00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:19,619
规模�大

754
00:26:19,619 --> 00:26:23,859
并�苹�或纳斯达克存在�难性问题

755
00:26:23,859 --> 00:26:26,140
但所有这些都需�暂�

756
00:26:26,140 --> 00:26:27,720
它们需�整�调整

757
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:29,220
我认为这就是当�的情况

758
00:26:29,220 --> 00:26:31,049
我�认为情况更糟

759
00:26:31,049 --> 00:26:33,089
这些公�的利润�长

760
00:26:33,089 --> 00:26:35,888
�国的���长

761
00:26:35,888 --> 00:26:37,608
太过强劲�能这么说

762
00:26:37,608 --> 00:26:40,569
没有比整�更严�的问题在�生

763
00:26:40,569 --> 00:26:42,630
为了帮助我们的观众

764
00:26:42,630 --> 00:26:46,029
我想在�下�几天考虑买入

765
00:26:46,029 --> 00:26:48,970
�在�能已��适��出

766
00:26:48,970 --> 00:26:50,630
除�你认为自己

767
00:26:50,630 --> 00:26:55,109
能精准把�五个百分点的下跌时机

768
00:26:55,109 --> 00:26:57,289
这�能在纳斯达克出�

769
00:26:57,289 --> 00:26:57,730
在我看�

770
00:26:57,730 --> 00:26:59,210
这太过精�了

771
00:26:59,210 --> 00:27:00,670
如�你已调整仓�

772
00:27:00,670 --> 00:27:01,869
正如我们所有人所说

773
00:27:01,869 --> 00:27:02,829
我们所有人说过

774
00:27:02,829 --> 00:27:04,450
在上涨途中调整仓�

775
00:27:04,450 --> 00:27:09,829
你应该�留资金在苹��调时买入

776
00:27:09,829 --> 00:27:13,569
说到底你永远�需�紧急买入

777
00:27:13,569 --> 00:27:15,039
�这个角度�看

778
00:27:15,039 --> 00:27:15,480
你知�的

779
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:18,240
他们�会�然�出能改�业务的产�

780
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:18,440
哦

781
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:20,140
我的天啊会改�业务

782
00:27:20,140 --> 00:27:21,569
这家公�太大了

783
00:27:21,569 --> 00:27:23,250
创新力�足

784
00:27:23,250 --> 00:27:25,690
如今他们多久没有创新了

785
00:27:25,690 --> 00:27:27,269
你知�的

786
00:27:27,269 --> 00:27:28,970
已�很久了

787
00:27:28,970 --> 00:27:29,549
没错

788
00:27:29,549 --> 00:27:30,190
å—¯

789
00:27:30,190 --> 00:27:32,069
我们得追溯到乔布斯时代

790
00:27:32,069 --> 00:27:32,390
约翰尼

791
00:27:32,390 --> 00:27:34,109
我曾��过

792
00:27:34,109 --> 00:27:34,849
你知�的

793
00:27:34,849 --> 00:27:36,029
�方��转顺畅

794
00:27:36,029 --> 00:27:36,829
凭借iPhone

795
00:27:36,829 --> 00:27:37,670
还有iPad

796
00:27:37,670 --> 00:27:38,670
MacBook�归了

797
00:27:38,670 --> 00:27:39,250
然�往�

798
00:27:39,250 --> 00:27:42,029
这些�根本上改�了产�的创新

799
00:27:42,029 --> 00:27:42,450
你知�的

800
00:27:42,450 --> 00:27:45,410
乔尼·艾维和苹�手表�AirPods相关

801
00:27:45,410 --> 00:27:46,549
都是�磅产�

802
00:27:46,549 --> 00:27:46,849
而且

803
00:27:46,849 --> 00:27:48,630
显然应用商店和相关生�

804
00:27:48,630 --> 00:27:50,009
乔布斯团队打造的

805
00:27:50,009 --> 00:27:52,160
但如今你知�的

806
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:53,650
å—¯

807
00:27:54,490 --> 00:27:55,250
你知�的

808
00:27:55,250 --> 00:27:56,369
这就是它的影�

809
00:27:56,369 --> 00:27:56,950
汤姆·�

810
00:27:56,950 --> 00:27:57,970
�在是趣味 strap

811
00:27:57,970 --> 00:28:00,240
管��伙人兼CC贡献者

812
00:28:00,244 --> 00:28:01,200
汤姆·�

813
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:02,319
汤姆很高兴和你�天

814
00:28:02,319 --> 00:28:03,819
尽�能你知�的

815
00:28:03,819 --> 00:28:07,450
或能说�周五�生了什么

816
00:28:07,450 --> 00:28:09,950
以�今天�生了什么

817
00:28:09,950 --> 00:28:16,348
因为相隔48个交易日的市场差异�大

818
00:28:17,118 --> 00:28:17,598
是的

819
00:28:17,598 --> 00:28:17,919
布��

820
00:28:17,919 --> 00:28:19,269
正如你所知嗯

821
00:28:19,269 --> 00:28:21,430
股市近期表�良好

822
00:28:21,430 --> 00:28:25,910
所以很多人担心下方支撑�

823
00:28:25,910 --> 00:28:28,950
因为许多股票波动迅速

824
00:28:28,950 --> 00:28:31,009
��出�波动

825
00:28:31,009 --> 00:28:31,509
å—¯

826
00:28:31,509 --> 00:28:34,170
上周出�了三次波动

827
00:28:34,170 --> 00:28:35,240
首先是

828
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:38,299
AI交易的强度如何

829
00:28:38,299 --> 00:28:41,619
尤其是�通�布的指引数�

830
00:28:41,619 --> 00:28:47,880
其次是谷歌�将�资800亿

831
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:51,710
加上SpaceX75亿

832
00:28:51,710 --> 00:28:53,430
AI或达100亿

833
00:28:53,430 --> 00:28:53,970
你知�的

834
00:28:53,970 --> 00:28:55,390
Anthropic75亿

835
00:28:55,390 --> 00:28:56,369
然�是Meta

836
00:28:56,369 --> 00:28:57,569
当然也�交了�资

837
00:28:57,569 --> 00:29:02,849
大�股�寻求公众注资

838
00:29:02,849 --> 00:29:03,730
第三是

839
00:29:03,730 --> 00:29:04,069
当然

840
00:29:04,069 --> 00:29:05,490
地缘政治紧张局势

841
00:29:05,490 --> 00:29:08,650
人们周末通常会紧张

842
00:29:08,650 --> 00:29:12,390
担心伊朗�能有事

843
00:29:12,390 --> 00:29:14,109
我认为这些是波动�因

844
00:29:14,109 --> 00:29:14,829
正如你所知

845
00:29:14,829 --> 00:29:15,309
å—¯

846
00:29:15,309 --> 00:29:17,099
我们收到了这些�撤

847
00:29:17,500 --> 00:29:18,680
在我们看�

848
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:22,659
并且我们公开�布我们周末对此的评论

849
00:29:22,659 --> 00:29:25,479
我认为认为牛市陷入困境是虚��事

850
00:29:25,479 --> 00:29:29,538
我认为牛市�然稳固且状�良好

851
00:29:31,819 --> 00:29:33,819
汤姆·凯利

852
00:29:33,819 --> 00:29:35,619
�到演播室这里是凯利

853
00:29:35,619 --> 00:29:38,539
显然承�最大�力的领域是加密货�

854
00:29:38,539 --> 00:29:39,460
你好

855
00:29:39,460 --> 00:29:40,339
凯利

856
00:29:40,339 --> 00:29:43,140
我知�你说人们�应该

857
00:29:43,140 --> 00:29:43,759
你知�的

858
00:29:43,759 --> 00:29:44,619
轻易放弃

859
00:29:44,619 --> 00:29:51,118
但我觉得这一领域的购买动能已�显消失

860
00:29:51,118 --> 00:29:53,650
我�确定何时能�归

861
00:29:54,210 --> 00:29:54,730
是的

862
00:29:54,730 --> 00:29:55,450
我说凯利

863
00:29:55,450 --> 00:29:58,130
我认为人们今年对加密货�感到�常失望

864
00:29:58,130 --> 00:29:59,388
首先

865
00:29:59,388 --> 00:30:01,909
当AI上涨时它们�没有上涨

866
00:30:01,909 --> 00:30:02,249
是的

867
00:30:02,249 --> 00:30:04,308
我们�花时间在这些上

868
00:30:04,308 --> 00:30:04,628
汤姆·�

869
00:30:04,628 --> 00:30:05,348
他很有魅力

870
00:30:05,348 --> 00:30:07,500
管��伙人兼首席研究员

871
00:30:07,500 --> 00:30:08,180
很高兴�到你

872
00:30:08,180 --> 00:30:08,960
看看这个市场

873
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:11,890
你想想斯科特

874
00:30:11,890 --> 00:30:13,029
我认为这个市场

875
00:30:13,029 --> 00:30:16,388
当然显示出很多波动迹象

876
00:30:16,388 --> 00:30:18,709
在SpaceX IPO�的波动

877
00:30:18,709 --> 00:30:22,589
以�巩固这些收益

878
00:30:22,589 --> 00:30:26,490
此外我们知�谷歌将筹集大�未�资金

879
00:30:26,490 --> 00:30:29,069
Meta�OpenAI和Anthropic

880
00:30:29,069 --> 00:30:32,119
因此我认为市场正在�试定价

881
00:30:32,119 --> 00:30:34,819
在SpaceX IPO�

882
00:30:34,819 --> 00:30:36,138
这周五进行

883
00:30:36,138 --> 00:30:37,638
�过这是�康的

884
00:30:37,638 --> 00:30:41,378
我认为这�会阻�科技股行情

885
00:30:41,709 --> 00:30:42,949
但科技��的情况如何

886
00:30:42,949 --> 00:30:44,068
你知�芯片股

887
00:30:44,068 --> 00:30:44,709
它们

888
00:30:44,709 --> 00:30:45,648
那些你认为

889
00:30:45,648 --> 00:30:47,049
这里存在

890
00:30:47,049 --> 00:30:49,670
抛售主��

891
00:30:49,670 --> 00:30:51,130
为IPO布局

892
00:30:51,130 --> 00:30:53,049
�将本周晚些时候的SpaceX IPO

893
00:30:53,049 --> 00:30:55,369
你如何评估这里的情况

894
00:30:55,690 --> 00:30:56,410
哦对

895
00:30:56,410 --> 00:30:56,890
没错

896
00:30:56,890 --> 00:30:57,150
斯科特

897
00:30:57,150 --> 00:30:57,569
我是说

898
00:30:57,569 --> 00:31:00,829
SpaceX的IPO估值达750亿�元

899
00:31:00,829 --> 00:31:04,289
由�被纳入纳斯达克指数

900
00:31:04,289 --> 00:31:09,299
一百亿机�资金�在�得�筹集资金

901
00:31:09,299 --> 00:31:10,180
哦等等这里

902
00:31:10,180 --> 00:31:12,619
因为我收到了关�SpaceX IPO的�问

903
00:31:12,619 --> 00:31:15,138
我是�感兴趣购买

904
00:31:15,138 --> 00:31:17,519
呃 �

905
00:31:17,519 --> 00:31:18,559
你在逗我�

906
00:31:18,559 --> 00:31:19,579
你在翻我的�饼

907
00:31:19,579 --> 00:31:20,339
我能够�解

908
00:31:20,339 --> 00:31:22,119
�有些人试图赌一把

909
00:31:22,119 --> 00:31:23,440
�能首日上涨

910
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:24,559
�能首周上涨

911
00:31:24,559 --> 00:31:24,920
等等

912
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:25,460
等等

913
00:31:25,460 --> 00:31:26,180
兄弟

914
00:31:26,180 --> 00:31:26,880
�

915
00:31:30,140 --> 00:31:31,339
我都�知�该说什么

916
00:31:31,339 --> 00:31:32,700
就�空中楼�

917
00:31:32,700 --> 00:31:33,359
你知�的

918
00:31:33,359 --> 00:31:35,700
�仅为了购买IPO

919
00:31:35,700 --> 00:31:37,819
还��留�金

920
00:31:37,819 --> 00:31:39,559
以便�际建仓

921
00:31:39,559 --> 00:31:42,849
因为他们�确定是�超四�认购

922
00:31:42,849 --> 00:31:44,730
他们�能�得25%的��

923
00:31:44,730 --> 00:31:47,170
但�建立全市场仓�

924
00:31:47,170 --> 00:31:49,150
必须在二级市场大�买入

925
00:31:49,150 --> 00:31:53,609
我认为这�味���出近期�利股

926
00:31:53,609 --> 00:31:55,069
我�以说这是积�信�

927
00:31:55,069 --> 00:31:55,349
�过

928
00:31:55,349 --> 00:31:59,430
是记忆股��周五�点上方

929
00:31:59,430 --> 00:32:01,150
�导体��也是如此

930
00:32:01,150 --> 00:32:05,339
我认为那里出�了�大打击

931
00:32:05,339 --> 00:32:08,529
但我�认为图表完全失效

932
00:32:08,529 --> 00:32:13,299
市场需�SpaceX首日表�良好

933
00:32:15,519 --> 00:32:16,039
是的

934
00:32:16,039 --> 00:32:16,900
我认为

935
00:32:16,900 --> 00:32:17,799
这很��

936
00:32:17,799 --> 00:32:19,059
斯科特 嗯

937
00:32:19,059 --> 00:32:20,839
我们知�它会表�良好

938
00:32:20,839 --> 00:32:22,599
因为它是一家��公�

939
00:32:22,599 --> 00:32:26,900
而且埃隆·马斯克本身就是NFT人物

940
00:32:26,900 --> 00:32:29,480
但还有很好的�展路线图

941
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:34,789
解释未��长和�大市场空间

942
00:32:34,789 --> 00:32:36,390
如�表��佳

943
00:32:36,390 --> 00:32:39,109
这将助长众多怀疑者

944
00:32:39,109 --> 00:32:39,710
他们说

945
00:32:39,710 --> 00:32:41,069
市场已�顶

946
00:32:41,069 --> 00:32:43,849
你知�这标志�顶部

947
00:32:43,849 --> 00:32:46,920
我�能��在那上�

948
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:49,579
因为我一直在�到很多人宣布

949
00:32:49,579 --> 00:32:50,380
顶部已�到�

950
00:32:50,380 --> 00:32:52,579
所以作为逆�投资者

951
00:32:52,579 --> 00:32:55,140
因为很多人认为SpaceX标志�顶部

952
00:32:55,140 --> 00:32:56,480
这很�能�是顶部

953
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:57,000
ä½ 

954
00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:58,779
你确�在�

955
00:32:58,779 --> 00:33:00,079
��陷入

956
00:33:00,079 --> 00:33:02,039
��陷入SpaceX的炒作

957
00:33:02,039 --> 00:33:02,579
好的

958
00:33:02,579 --> 00:33:06,240
作为曾�的特斯拉投资者，�中赚得巨�利润

959
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:08,200
yo马斯克�出所有这些承诺

960
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:09,579
但几�都没��

961
00:33:09,579 --> 00:33:10,400
比如这家伙

962
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:12,059
他曾承诺我们会拥有自动驾驶出租车

963
00:33:12,059 --> 00:33:13,339
他就�一百年�

964
00:33:13,339 --> 00:33:15,779
我们甚至还没在这些�市��自动驾驶出租车

965
00:33:15,779 --> 00:33:17,160
想想这一点

966
00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:18,559
�使如此

967
00:33:18,559 --> 00:33:19,180
他会说

968
00:33:19,180 --> 00:33:19,339
哦

969
00:33:19,339 --> 00:33:20,539
我们将在太空��

970
00:33:20,539 --> 00:33:22,380
这里�建造数�中心

971
00:33:22,380 --> 00:33:23,619
我们�� blah blah blah

972
00:33:23,619 --> 00:33:25,420
我相信总有一天会��

973
00:33:25,420 --> 00:33:26,599
但�会很快

974
00:33:26,599 --> 00:33:26,940
��

975
00:33:26,940 --> 00:33:27,940
你会��

976
00:33:27,940 --> 00:33:28,960
你会��

977
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:29,799
当那一天到�时

978
00:33:29,799 --> 00:33:30,329
好的

979
00:33:30,329 --> 00:33:31,950
关�这点我说完了

980
00:33:31,950 --> 00:33:34,130
总有一天会��

981
00:33:34,130 --> 00:33:35,690
但今天�是，�天也�是

982
00:33:35,690 --> 00:33:37,089
�是�年，也�是�年

983
00:33:37,089 --> 00:33:37,849
也�是�年

984
00:33:37,849 --> 00:33:39,079
也�是�年

985
00:33:39,079 --> 00:33:39,680
好的

986
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:41,700
�能在2030年代

987
00:33:41,700 --> 00:33:42,700
2040年代

988
00:33:42,700 --> 00:33:43,480
但你�以

989
00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:45,789
但问题是足够了

990
00:33:45,789 --> 00:33:47,589
人们�能会被说�认为

991
00:33:47,589 --> 00:33:47,750
哦

992
00:33:47,750 --> 00:33:49,130
就是�年或�年

993
00:33:49,130 --> 00:33:50,029
你知�的

994
00:33:50,029 --> 00:33:50,390
也许�

995
00:33:50,390 --> 00:33:51,509
短期内�高股价

996
00:33:51,509 --> 00:33:53,079
但总是�

997
00:33:53,079 --> 00:33:54,640
这真是太有趣了

998
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:57,569
我认为上�趋势�然完好

999
00:33:57,970 --> 00:34:01,380
由正确的科技引领

1000
00:34:01,380 --> 00:34:01,640
斯科特

1001
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:02,240
我确���

1002
00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:05,019
我觉得这会是一个被买入的�调

1003
00:34:05,019 --> 00:34:06,059
嗯，你知�的

1004
00:34:06,059 --> 00:34:09,659
我们�预计今年市场将呈�三阶段走势

1005
00:34:09,659 --> 00:34:11,420
我们将��强劲的上�趋势

1006
00:34:11,420 --> 00:34:15,358
我认为这将�续�预�的未�

1007
00:34:15,358 --> 00:34:18,418
我认为今年�期会出��调

1008
00:34:18,418 --> 00:34:21,079
我认为�近�定期结�

1009
00:34:21,079 --> 00:34:23,269
并且这��力

1010
00:34:23,269 --> 00:34:24,389
嗯，总体而言

1011
00:34:24,389 --> 00:34:25,789
我认为走势符�预期

1012
00:34:25,789 --> 00:34:28,150
我们认为2026年将是艰难的一年

1013
00:34:29,550 --> 00:34:33,510
但你�关注��储相关波动

1014
00:34:33,510 --> 00:34:34,409
�样

1015
00:34:34,409 --> 00:34:40,760
你之��到这�能是市场�调的�因

1016
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:44,599
比大�IPO�定期更多

1017
00:34:44,599 --> 00:34:47,159
你调整过�路�

1018
00:34:47,278 --> 00:34:48,059
呃，斯科特

1019
00:34:48,059 --> 00:34:54,050
我认为有三个因素导致第二阶段�调

1020
00:34:54,050 --> 00:34:55,389
首先是��储

1021
00:34:55,389 --> 00:34:56,510
市场测试

1022
00:34:57,869 --> 00:34:58,690
凯文·沃什

1023
00:34:58,690 --> 00:35:01,599
他本周将首次亮相

1024
00:35:01,599 --> 00:35:06,960
但市场将测试他对通胀衡�和政策路径的看法

1025
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:11,170
尤其是在他�能采�的政策��

1026
00:35:11,170 --> 00:35:16,010
这些政策�白宫预期高度一致

1027
00:35:16,010 --> 00:35:20,510
第二是所有大�IPO的�定期结�

1028
00:35:20,510 --> 00:35:22,514
这确�代表供给�加

1029
00:35:22,630 --> 00:35:25,909
第三因素我认为是石油

1030
00:35:25,909 --> 00:35:28,539
价格涨幅�如预期

1031
00:35:28,539 --> 00:35:29,840
正如我们所料

1032
00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:32,780
我认为今年�期会出�短缺

1033
00:35:32,780 --> 00:35:34,539
市场将�临这一问题

1034
00:35:34,539 --> 00:35:42,960
我观察到当�走势已�顶

1035
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:46,679
我们�以称大约三周�

1036
00:35:46,679 --> 00:35:48,440
在466点附近

1037
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:50,199
�在跌至452点

1038
00:35:50,199 --> 00:35:53,778
因此�年期国债已�顶

1039
00:35:54,498 --> 00:35:59,219
希望这是多周期顶部

1040
00:35:59,219 --> 00:36:01,039
永远��对此过�兴奋

1041
00:36:01,039 --> 00:36:03,210
但若

1042
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:07,320
未�通胀�剧烈

1043
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:09,679
�年期国债应形�多周期顶部

1044
00:36:09,679 --> 00:36:12,739
这将对未�的��产生积�影�

1045
00:36:12,739 --> 00:36:15,780
这也�味�房地产市场会更好

1046
00:36:15,780 --> 00:36:17,460
因为抵押贷款利�

1047
00:36:17,460 --> 00:36:21,369
嗯，�房地产市场�看也�赖�年期利�

1048
00:36:21,369 --> 00:36:24,190
我亲眼看到房地产市场有很多疲软迹象

1049
00:36:24,190 --> 00:36:25,409
至少在我的市场

1050
00:36:25,409 --> 00:36:26,269
拉斯维加斯

1051
00:36:26,269 --> 00:36:27,730
大�房价下调

1052
00:36:27,730 --> 00:36:29,110
对啊嗯

1053
00:36:29,110 --> 00:36:29,570
哦

1054
00:36:29,570 --> 00:36:30,289
�对是一个时期

1055
00:36:30,289 --> 00:36:31,650
那里能淘到�错的 deal

1056
00:36:31,650 --> 00:36:32,550
以�类似的事情

1057
00:36:32,550 --> 00:36:33,739
当我说到

1058
00:36:33,739 --> 00:36:34,059
好 deal

1059
00:36:34,059 --> 00:36:37,019
我是指比过�几年都更好的 deal

1060
00:36:37,019 --> 00:36:38,480
所以啊

1061
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:39,780
这需�记�这一点

1062
00:36:39,780 --> 00:36:40,139
好的

1063
00:36:40,139 --> 00:36:40,559
好的

1064
00:36:40,559 --> 00:36:41,739
��感谢大家一如既往的��

1065
00:36:41,739 --> 00:36:42,800
�常感谢你们的到�

1066
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:43,199
�次强调

1067
00:36:43,199 --> 00:36:45,679
我的�密群�将关闭新�员加入

1068
00:36:45,679 --> 00:36:47,099
如�你想加入我们

1069
00:36:47,099 --> 00:36:48,199
那就是置顶评论

1070
00:36:48,199 --> 00:36:49,159
点击填写表�

1071
00:36:49,159 --> 00:36:51,139
我们会给予你访问��

1072
00:36:51,139 --> 00:36:53,340
或许让我想想

1073
00:36:53,340 --> 00:36:54,300
也许这个周末

1074
00:36:54,300 --> 00:36:55,639
也许下周我们看看

1075
00:36:55,639 --> 00:36:56,380
然�啊

1076
00:36:56,380 --> 00:36:57,139
一旦你加入我们

1077
00:36:57,139 --> 00:36:58,719
我们会���体会员�

1078
00:36:58,719 --> 00:36:59,980
这是2025年区

1079
00:36:59,980 --> 00:37:02,869
我们会寄�2026年�禧�

1080
00:37:02,869 --> 00:37:04,809
以��密群�

1081
00:37:04,809 --> 00:37:06,228
这是一张真正的股票

1082
00:37:06,228 --> 00:37:07,568
这也是�常漂亮的股票

1083
00:37:07,568 --> 00:37:09,548
如�你选择终身加入

1084
00:37:09,548 --> 00:37:12,159
黑色太�了

1085
00:37:12,159 --> 00:37:13,360
女士们先生们

1086
00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:14,199
衷心��

1087
00:37:14,199 --> 00:37:14,579
æ„Ÿè°¢

1088
00:37:14,579 --> 00:37:15,800
�你度过�好一天

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