【UNRIVALED INVESTING】股价腰斩！硅谷大佬力挺数据恢复之王

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今日无与伦比的国家，我们今天要讨论的是Rubric股票

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Rb rk是股票代码

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这曾可能是目前领先的软件即服务企业

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作为一家服务型企业

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然而股票在最近几个月已损失近半价值

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让我们在本视频中探讨

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他们具体做什么

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我对该业务的看法

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以及是否通过无与伦比投资清单

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如果你想直接跳到结论

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我的个人总结是

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当我查看清单中的

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在管理层对齐方面

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明显增长和吸引人的估值

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我认为管理层对齐

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是的

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我可以说明显增长几乎确定

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然后从吸引人估值角度

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这就是我

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我有些犹豫

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但有人可能认为当前估值具有吸引力

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这取决于投资者类型

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我将简要谈谈自己的投资历程

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你知道我喜欢看到什么和不喜欢看到什么

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现在让我们深入了解Rubric

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在理解这家企业时

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了解提供关键使命

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至关重要的

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网络安全韧性

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你可以获取全球任何股票的免费演示

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你知道的

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如果你想获得AI驱动的分析

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请访问Flash

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查看下方链接

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Rubric的有趣之处在于

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其核心价值主张是开发了名为Atlas的专有文件系统

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由前谷歌文件系统工程师设计，在代码层面强制不可变性

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意味着备份数据无法被加密

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覆盖或删除

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提供干净副本进行恢复

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无论发生什么

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这关乎数据韧性

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意味着将面临网络攻击

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勒索软件威胁

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无需担心数据会

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你知道的

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被破坏或永久丢失

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或许数据可能被破坏

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他人可能获取

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但无需为此担忧

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在感知上永久受损意味着

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哦

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我的整个业务都依赖这些数据

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瞬间消失

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没了啊

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整个框架的核心在于说明我们

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我们有你们的后盾

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我们非常自信能备份您的数据

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作为为企业客户提供的这项千万美元保修服务

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是啊

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您的数据在Rubric安全可靠

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他们的价值主张

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因此您可以清楚看到为何这吸引商户

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为何对各类客户都有吸引力

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尤其是大客户

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因为这关乎快速网络恢复时间

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关乎保护这些数据

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而且这也是

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我们可以适配多种云平台

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我们可以对接多个数据提供商

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这样一来您就知道这

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并非仅限谷歌

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也许您有谷歌

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也许您有Azure

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也许您有

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您明白的

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各种不同方案

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也许您使用不同的应用

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它们是

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您知道的

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记录保管者

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我们可以全部安全保管

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这就是我们的价值主张

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因此您从这一核心数据韧性价值出发

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再考虑身份韧性等附加功能

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可备份并恢复身份基础设施本身

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我认为活动目录恢复可能涉及数十个步骤

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如果已被入侵

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突然间您会意识到

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天啊

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比如

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这位技术主管

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您更改了密码

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或调整了权限设置

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必须认识到这一点

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据称90%的攻击者

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他们并未真正入侵

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只是获取了被利用的登录凭证

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90%情况下是登录环节

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因此必须确保目录安全

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应该拥有正确访问权限和密码的人员是否处于活跃状态

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因此一旦发生安全漏洞

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你可以理解为什么这

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你知道这确实会引发严重问题

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这也是他们核心价值主张的一部分

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除了数据备份功能

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因此rubric能缩短这一时间

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这个过程

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你知道

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重置活动目录

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你知道

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简化流程并帮助企业

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节省时间

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帮助企业

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节省成本和压力

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因此你可以看到这些不同模块

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你知道这些模块会被添加到订阅服务中

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他们还提供这项

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这项云服务利用

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人工智能

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因此你不仅拥有数据韧性

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但借助AI他们可能具备云端智能

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能够提前发现公司潜在威胁或漏洞

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他们可以指出

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等等

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这些数据

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你知道是否传达到了正确人员

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该人员是否应该有访问权限

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你知道

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这会不会变成问题

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因此你可以理解他们的市场策略

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你知道他们瞄准全球大型企业

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这些企业拥有大量数据

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然后他们会说我们正在赢得新客户

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这些客户将从数据韧性开始

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接着他们会说目录管理

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然后他们会说

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我们需要监控的AI系统

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或许我们还需要覆盖更多应用

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或许不只

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你知道我们使用谷歌云的情况

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或许我们想要

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你知道

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覆盖不同SaaS服务

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你知道解决方案

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集成到公司的软件解决方案

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我们也需要确保这些被覆盖

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这转化为非常高的订阅收入

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美元基础和RR

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因此你正在观察

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即使他们没有新获客户

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现有核心客户群仍以10%速度增长

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现有收入仍将增长20%以上

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即使他们没有新获客户

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这是一个极其重要的数据点

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因此他们正在获取新客户

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原有客户也在持续扩张

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可能增加需要备份的数据或不同模块

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或是连接不同数据源

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你可以看到这些如何转化为优异成果

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可以看到年化持续收入从数个季度前的六亿左右

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几年前

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增长至约15亿

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截至其财年2026年第四季度

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他们的财年结束于一月

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他们刚完成2026财年

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并展现出强劲增长

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且预期持续强劲增长

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大约30%左右的增长

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那么问题来了

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瑞柏克股票

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你可以

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你能感受到

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这是一个有趣的案例

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这是一家有趣的公司

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我们专属社群的订阅者曾就此询问我

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因此我想研究这家公司

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尤其是股票已下跌

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约50%左右

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这是否符合

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无与伦比的投资清单标准，常看的观众都知道多数公司不符合

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我使用这个清单的原因是

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因为我认识到宏观环境将持续变化

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总会有某种压力因素

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你无法准确把握

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你知道的

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对宏观环境的全面认知

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不能断言

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百分之百确定

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这就是宏观环境的走向

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因为它可能突然改变

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天啊

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直接冲过驼鹿

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没有油管穿过

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认识到宏观图景可能非常动荡

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且可能瞬间变化

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因此认识到宏观图景可能比

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多数人能接受的更快变化

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我更喜欢这种清单

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因为我需要

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好的，嗯

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你知道的

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例如

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管理层对齐

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这是第一条

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我喜欢创始人亲自经营业务

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因为创始人会担心宏观风险

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可能和我作为股东一样担心

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你知道他们会谨慎考虑

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会发生什么

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这对我的业务会有什么影响

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所以他们会密切关注

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所以我晚上不用睡不着

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这就是为什么管理层对齐是第一条

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所以让我们继续

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你知道的

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无论这个标准是否通过无与伦比的投资检查清单

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首先这不是财务建议

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另外快速推荐一下

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基兰

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D的高级会员写道

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投资了五年了

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还没找到类似你们提供的内容

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他在说无与伦比的投资

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接下来是

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科林

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写过那个无与伦比的内容

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救了我的投资组合

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我的养老金

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如果你在寻找优质投资思路

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我制作独家视频

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就像这个

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仅限无与伦比投资订阅者

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我最近做了一期关于一只股票的视频

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如果你对独家内容感兴趣

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你喜欢这个视频

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去unrivalinvesting.com看看

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unrivalinvesting.com

239
00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:21,759
当我们逐项检查清单时

240
00:08:21,759 --> 00:08:23,399
从管理层对齐开始

241
00:08:23,399 --> 00:08:24,999
我打开闪屏

242
00:08:24,999 --> 00:08:25,478
是的

243
00:08:25,478 --> 00:08:31,100
管理层对齐的情况其实不完美

244
00:08:31,259 --> 00:08:33,620
但有些方面确实不错

245
00:08:33,620 --> 00:08:35,220
给出了6分满分

246
00:08:35,220 --> 00:08:37,240
看创始人

247
00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:38,339
CEO

248
00:08:38,339 --> 00:08:42,278
他持有公司约6%的股份价值数亿美元

249
00:08:42,278 --> 00:08:44,399
确实存在对齐

250
00:08:44,399 --> 00:08:48,620
但去年他的薪酬包约1400万美元

251
00:08:48,620 --> 00:08:51,639
这非常侧重于股票期权

252
00:08:51,639 --> 00:08:55,549
不过我个人并不喜欢看到这一点

253
00:08:55,549 --> 00:08:58,129
我之所以分享这个例子

254
00:08:58,129 --> 00:08:58,789
你可以这么说丹尼尔

255
00:08:58,789 --> 00:09:00,090
你只是在挑刺

256
00:09:00,090 --> 00:09:02,278
是的

257
00:09:02,278 --> 00:09:04,019
确实存在这样的因素

258
00:09:04,019 --> 00:09:06,639
因此我认为这符合对齐标准

259
00:09:06,639 --> 00:09:07,678
因为有一位创始人

260
00:09:07,678 --> 00:09:09,049
并且他拥有大量股份

261
00:09:09,049 --> 00:09:11,250
但为了举例说明原因

262
00:09:11,250 --> 00:09:13,049
翻动许多石头非常重要

263
00:09:13,049 --> 00:09:16,149
你可以发现某些公司中ceo会

264
00:09:16,149 --> 00:09:18,090
或者创始人会说是的

265
00:09:18,090 --> 00:09:21,870
我不需要这个价值一亿美元的期权包

266
00:09:21,870 --> 00:09:22,850
我已经是创始人了

267
00:09:22,850 --> 00:09:26,950
我已经持有这家公司的巨额股票

268
00:09:26,950 --> 00:09:27,370
我的意思是

269
00:09:27,370 --> 00:09:29,250
我现在想到的有一位创始人

270
00:09:29,250 --> 00:09:29,789
现在

271
00:09:29,789 --> 00:09:31,789
他已经是亿万富翁了

272
00:09:31,789 --> 00:09:34,090
他拒绝了期权包

273
00:09:34,090 --> 00:09:34,950
因为他表示

274
00:09:34,950 --> 00:09:35,169
看吧

275
00:09:35,169 --> 00:09:36,568
我并不需要

276
00:09:36,568 --> 00:09:39,808
他还公开了一本关于捐赠的书

277
00:09:39,808 --> 00:09:43,389
他让我非常期待与他合作

278
00:09:43,389 --> 00:09:44,330
他的公司正在增长

279
00:09:44,330 --> 00:09:47,070
我认为增速符合或超过预期

280
00:09:47,070 --> 00:09:51,669
所以我能看到创始人和管理层的对齐

281
00:09:51,669 --> 00:09:52,909
这种对齐非常明显

282
00:09:52,909 --> 00:09:53,389
这种情况下

283
00:09:53,389 --> 00:09:54,149
天啊

284
00:09:54,149 --> 00:09:57,860
这位创始人拒绝了巨额期权包

285
00:09:57,860 --> 00:09:58,399
因为他表示

286
00:09:58,399 --> 00:09:58,559
是的

287
00:09:58,559 --> 00:09:59,259
我不想接受

288
00:09:59,259 --> 00:10:00,879
我宁愿让出股份

289
00:10:00,879 --> 00:10:01,720
我的意思是

290
00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:02,580
如果你观察

291
00:10:02,580 --> 00:10:08,509
可以发现多位创始人用自有股份奖励员工

292
00:10:08,509 --> 00:10:11,070
而非稀释少数股东权益

293
00:10:11,070 --> 00:10:13,909
或者你能找到持有公司大股的创始人

294
00:10:13,909 --> 00:10:16,879
他们说你知道吗我们不

295
00:10:16,879 --> 00:10:19,509
我们可以接受低于市场的薪酬

296
00:10:19,509 --> 00:10:21,710
因为我们已持有大量股份

297
00:10:21,710 --> 00:10:24,110
我分享这些观点

298
00:10:24,110 --> 00:10:26,789
因为很多人说我太挑剔了

299
00:10:26,789 --> 00:10:27,970
在管理层对齐方面

300
00:10:27,970 --> 00:10:30,789
我只是分享我的看法你知道的

301
00:10:30,789 --> 00:10:33,230
我拥有的是，我渴望找到这些情境

302
00:10:33,230 --> 00:10:34,789
管理层拥有大量资源

303
00:10:34,789 --> 00:10:38,328
他们不需要从客户那里榨取最后一分钱

304
00:10:38,328 --> 00:10:38,808
你知道的

305
00:10:38,808 --> 00:10:40,149
从客户的墙上

306
00:10:40,149 --> 00:10:41,428
这有点像多伊尔

307
00:10:41,428 --> 00:10:42,568
布伦森的典故

308
00:10:42,568 --> 00:10:45,188
他和一个破产的画家打牌

309
00:10:45,188 --> 00:10:45,828
呃

310
00:10:45,839 --> 00:10:48,129
画家输掉了

311
00:10:48,129 --> 00:10:49,229
画家说道

312
00:10:49,229 --> 00:10:49,428
哦

313
00:10:49,428 --> 00:10:53,490
我的天啊，布伦森默默从钱包拿出最后一美元

314
00:10:53,490 --> 00:10:55,870
他们直接离开了游戏

315
00:10:55,870 --> 00:10:57,549
这不是我想要的心态

316
00:10:57,549 --> 00:10:59,179
我合作的创始人

317
00:10:59,179 --> 00:11:00,840
嗯，从个人层面

318
00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:01,379
呃

319
00:11:01,379 --> 00:11:04,730
他们必须从少数股东那里拿最后一分钱

320
00:11:05,049 --> 00:11:05,649
好的

321
00:11:05,649 --> 00:11:07,169
思考明显的增长机会

322
00:11:07,169 --> 00:11:07,929
你知道的

323
00:11:07,929 --> 00:11:08,429
是的

324
00:11:08,429 --> 00:11:09,850
有很多有利的数据点

325
00:11:09,850 --> 00:11:10,149
你拥有

326
00:11:10,149 --> 00:11:12,230
网络攻击正在加速

327
00:11:12,230 --> 00:11:13,870
绝不会见顶

328
00:11:13,870 --> 00:11:15,419
只会越来越糟

329
00:11:15,419 --> 00:11:17,399
勒索软件赎金持续上涨

330
00:11:17,399 --> 00:11:18,740
监管不断收紧

331
00:11:18,740 --> 00:11:19,240
说吧

332
00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:20,059
我们必须确保

333
00:11:20,059 --> 00:11:20,340
你保护好数据

334
00:11:20,340 --> 00:11:21,100
所以我要强调这些

335
00:11:21,100 --> 00:11:26,289
都是行业明显的利好因素

336
00:11:26,289 --> 00:11:27,070
对于这个领域

337
00:11:27,070 --> 00:11:28,090
然后管理层说

338
00:11:28,090 --> 00:11:30,879
看我们最近一个季度

339
00:11:30,879 --> 00:11:32,679
这是财务报告中提到的

340
00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:34,039
来自闪报报告

341
00:11:34,039 --> 00:11:35,409
于是我深入调查

342
00:11:35,409 --> 00:11:36,129
你看

343
00:11:36,129 --> 00:11:40,110
我们的竞争胜率已突破90%

344
00:11:40,110 --> 00:11:41,750
这说明

345
00:11:41,750 --> 00:11:42,828
你知道的

346
00:11:42,828 --> 00:11:44,589
看到这样的数据我很高兴

347
00:11:44,589 --> 00:11:51,009
这意味着你的价值主张在竞争中强烈共鸣

348
00:11:51,009 --> 00:11:53,029
我们90%的时间都能获胜

349
00:11:53,029 --> 00:11:55,850
这真是了不起的数据点

350
00:11:55,850 --> 00:11:57,110
管理层分享了这个信息

351
00:11:57,110 --> 00:11:59,769
说它已突破百分之九十

352
00:11:59,769 --> 00:12:03,090
意味着我们竞争更加激烈

353
00:12:03,090 --> 00:12:07,129
当我们致力于颠覆数据与身份保护市场

354
00:12:07,129 --> 00:12:10,328
所以我认为这非常有趣

355
00:12:10,328 --> 00:12:13,948
所以我同时关注长期趋势方面

356
00:12:13,948 --> 00:12:19,109
此外近期评论表明他们此刻正占据优势

357
00:12:19,109 --> 00:12:20,908
但投资如同所有事物

358
00:12:20,908 --> 00:12:22,929
不仅要保持良好状态

359
00:12:22,929 --> 00:12:24,070
我恐怕不

360
00:12:24,070 --> 00:12:26,110
也许并非所有事情在冥想时

361
00:12:26,110 --> 00:12:28,049
你想要活在当下

362
00:12:28,049 --> 00:12:31,089
但在投资中需要考虑

363
00:12:31,089 --> 00:12:32,269
并非仅仅当下

364
00:12:32,269 --> 00:12:35,649
要思考五年后的目标

365
00:12:35,649 --> 00:12:37,470
这就涉及到

366
00:12:37,470 --> 00:12:38,350
你知道的

367
00:12:38,350 --> 00:12:39,509
观察这个生态系统

368
00:12:39,509 --> 00:12:40,789
你有评估标准

369
00:12:40,789 --> 00:12:43,070
你有数据来源

370
00:12:43,529 --> 00:12:48,980
并有效整合这些网络安全组件

371
00:12:48,980 --> 00:12:52,039
他们提供数据韧性保障

372
00:12:52,039 --> 00:12:54,559
提供扫描的智能系统

373
00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:57,099
提前发现潜在问题

374
00:12:57,099 --> 00:12:58,918
我们先从左侧开始

375
00:12:58,918 --> 00:13:00,379
数据来源部分

376
00:13:00,379 --> 00:13:01,379
可以说

377
00:13:01,379 --> 00:13:03,500
这是Rubrik的竞争护城河最强领域

378
00:13:03,500 --> 00:13:08,000
正在构建并维护数十种企业工作负载连接器

379
00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:09,379
这非常困难

380
00:13:09,379 --> 00:13:10,220
说吧

381
00:13:10,220 --> 00:13:12,419
这些是全球大型企业

382
00:13:12,419 --> 00:13:14,000
我们已全面覆盖

383
00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:14,960
微软

384
00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:15,700
微软

385
00:13:15,700 --> 00:13:16,539
亚马逊谷歌

386
00:13:16,539 --> 00:13:19,480
无论你使用什么系统如Windows

387
00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:21,659
你知道Salesforce

388
00:13:21,659 --> 00:13:23,720
无论你接入什么平台

389
00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:24,940
我们已全面覆盖

390
00:13:24,940 --> 00:13:25,379
我们能够

391
00:13:25,379 --> 00:13:28,129
我们能实现完整混合环境

392
00:13:28,129 --> 00:13:32,769
反面来看对于中小型企业

393
00:13:32,769 --> 00:13:35,549
他们可能只需单一云类型

394
00:13:35,549 --> 00:13:37,090
你知道的业务

395
00:13:37,090 --> 00:13:41,159
我认为这是大多数或多数企业

396
00:13:41,159 --> 00:13:42,519
然后他们说

397
00:13:42,519 --> 00:13:42,879
等等

398
00:13:42,879 --> 00:13:44,120
这些超大规模厂商

399
00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:46,799
或许他们提供足够好的解决方案

400
00:13:46,799 --> 00:13:49,000
对于单一云客户而言

401
00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:51,019
这就是其中一个视角

402
00:13:51,019 --> 00:13:56,860
但在我看来这是商业模式中最强大的部分

403
00:13:56,860 --> 00:14:05,110
尤其是对于那些数据分散在全球不同孤岛的大客户

404
00:14:05,190 --> 00:14:07,070
所以现在我们看右边

405
00:14:07,070 --> 00:14:08,409
网络安全整合

406
00:14:08,409 --> 00:14:10,710
或者说某种亦敌亦友的关系

407
00:14:10,710 --> 00:14:13,500
或许长期会是竞争对手

408
00:14:14,659 --> 00:14:16,059
现在是朋友未来可能成敌人

409
00:14:16,059 --> 00:14:16,970
也许以后会这样

410
00:14:16,970 --> 00:14:18,429
在网络安全整合方面

411
00:14:18,429 --> 00:14:22,350
这更具挑战性因为都是资源充足的平台

412
00:14:22,350 --> 00:14:25,658
每个都有自己的扩张野心

413
00:14:25,658 --> 00:14:28,149
核心问题在于

414
00:14:28,149 --> 00:14:28,750
你知道的

415
00:14:28,750 --> 00:14:30,129
是否你知道

416
00:14:30,129 --> 00:14:30,610
比如说

417
00:14:30,610 --> 00:14:32,350
Crowd Strike的观点是

418
00:14:32,350 --> 00:14:34,710
灾备必须是自主掌控能力

419
00:14:34,710 --> 00:14:37,309
而非未来与之合作

420
00:14:37,309 --> 00:14:38,929
让我们看看如何发展

421
00:14:38,929 --> 00:14:39,269
我的意思是

422
00:14:39,269 --> 00:14:41,659
这就是不确定性所在

423
00:14:41,700 --> 00:14:42,220
你知道的

424
00:14:42,220 --> 00:14:44,659
这可能导致未来利润率压力

425
00:14:44,659 --> 00:14:47,940
或销售增长停滞

426
00:14:47,940 --> 00:14:48,320
如果你

427
00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:51,960
若出现捆绑销售压力

428
00:14:52,318 --> 00:14:54,739
这假设他们也构建了技术

429
00:14:54,739 --> 00:14:58,359
最大的风险可能来自双方之外

430
00:14:58,359 --> 00:15:00,889
但真正吸引人的是生成式AI

431
00:15:00,889 --> 00:15:03,669
连接所有数据源

432
00:15:03,669 --> 00:15:04,950
到网络安全整合

433
00:15:04,950 --> 00:15:06,629
到客户自身

434
00:15:06,629 --> 00:15:09,169
构建持续验证机制

435
00:15:09,169 --> 00:15:12,409
自主恢复编排而非定期备份

436
00:15:12,409 --> 00:15:13,330
因此我认为

437
00:15:13,330 --> 00:15:17,089
这可能是十年后的绝地反击

438
00:15:17,089 --> 00:15:19,109
可能成为业务风险

439
00:15:19,109 --> 00:15:20,769
我们尚未看到这一点

440
00:15:20,769 --> 00:15:25,509
这是预见未来问题所在

441
00:15:25,509 --> 00:15:27,190
投资正是需要这样做

442
00:15:27,190 --> 00:15:30,429
必须思考未来五到十年业务形态

443
00:15:30,429 --> 00:15:31,429
不能只说

444
00:15:31,429 --> 00:15:33,379
当前市场情况如何

445
00:15:33,379 --> 00:15:35,120
当前市场形势非常出色

446
00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:37,279
胜率超过90%

447
00:15:37,279 --> 00:15:38,559
表现优异

448
00:15:38,559 --> 00:15:42,659
这就是为什么我认为存在明显增长潜力

449
00:15:42,659 --> 00:15:45,349
但需注意这些潜在问题

450
00:15:45,349 --> 00:15:48,408
管理层确实保持高度协同

451
00:15:48,408 --> 00:15:49,688
不要爱上它

452
00:15:49,688 --> 00:15:52,059
但我喜欢它，所以接下来

453
00:15:52,059 --> 00:15:52,340
好的

454
00:15:52,340 --> 00:15:53,500
我们来谈谈估值

455
00:15:53,500 --> 00:15:54,529
这是第三部分

456
00:15:54,529 --> 00:15:55,990
这个估值有吸引力吗

457
00:15:55,990 --> 00:15:57,970
我们快速浏览一下损益表

458
00:15:57,970 --> 00:16:00,500
你看到他们的收入呈现高速增长

459
00:16:00,500 --> 00:16:02,200
你看到毛利率强劲

460
00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:03,639
毛利率高达80%

461
00:16:03,639 --> 00:16:04,179
我喜欢

462
00:16:04,179 --> 00:16:06,039
这意味着他们可能非常盈利

463
00:16:06,039 --> 00:16:09,549
但他们必须大幅投资这个业务

464
00:16:09,549 --> 00:16:11,409
特别是在销售和营销方面

465
00:16:11,409 --> 00:16:12,269
所以嗯

466
00:16:12,269 --> 00:16:12,529
好的

467
00:16:12,529 --> 00:16:12,970
所以这就是

468
00:16:12,970 --> 00:16:14,269
这是这个业务的难点

469
00:16:14,269 --> 00:16:16,610
他们需要投入大量资金

470
00:16:16,610 --> 00:16:20,110
现在你已经看到他们从某些方面获得了杠杆效应

471
00:16:20,110 --> 00:16:20,730
你知道的

472
00:16:20,730 --> 00:16:26,570
他们的研发和一般管理费用

473
00:16:26,570 --> 00:16:30,769
显然销售和营销投入是主要部分

474
00:16:30,769 --> 00:16:31,309
呃

475
00:16:31,309 --> 00:16:33,509
但仍然严重亏损

476
00:16:33,509 --> 00:16:35,470
并且大量稀释股东权益

477
00:16:35,470 --> 00:16:38,519
所以我不喜欢看到强劲的

478
00:16:38,799 --> 00:16:39,559
你知道的

479
00:16:39,559 --> 00:16:40,860
股份账户大幅增加

480
00:16:40,860 --> 00:16:42,620
管理层会迅速指出

481
00:16:44,679 --> 00:16:46,960
这是一家现金流充沛的公司

482
00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:47,700
你知道的

483
00:16:47,700 --> 00:16:50,159
去年产生约2.5亿美元自由现金流

484
00:16:50,159 --> 00:16:53,529
问题在于大部分来自股权激励

485
00:16:53,529 --> 00:16:54,690
这是另一个例子

486
00:16:54,690 --> 00:16:55,870
在这里你可以对丹尼尔说

487
00:16:55,870 --> 00:16:57,610
我在较真

488
00:16:57,610 --> 00:17:01,350
但我觉得值得深入探究

489
00:17:01,350 --> 00:17:01,929
再次强调

490
00:17:01,929 --> 00:17:07,990
你可以找到一些公司，管理层表示

491
00:17:07,990 --> 00:17:10,849
就像万圣节发糖果

492
00:17:10,849 --> 00:17:14,900
我们认为股权激励应该

493
00:17:14,900 --> 00:17:17,720
我们会在公开市场回购股票

494
00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:19,579
然后发放给员工

495
00:17:19,579 --> 00:17:21,180
有些公司就是这样做的

496
00:17:21,180 --> 00:17:23,880
而不是损害小股东利益

497
00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:26,980
然后展示真实的自由现金流

498
00:17:26,980 --> 00:17:28,759
与这种操作相比

499
00:17:28,759 --> 00:17:30,690
收入增长如此迅猛

500
00:17:30,690 --> 00:17:34,730
但我拥有的公司股份数量变化大致如此

501
00:17:34,730 --> 00:17:36,210
因为他们大量发行股票

502
00:17:36,210 --> 00:17:39,690
因此我的每股稀释增长实际上略低

503
00:17:39,690 --> 00:17:42,049
这就是这类公司必须进行的操作

504
00:17:42,049 --> 00:17:44,670
我个人更喜欢那些重视自己

505
00:17:44,670 --> 00:17:46,349
你知道他们把股票当作珍宝

506
00:17:46,349 --> 00:17:46,950
就像

507
00:17:46,950 --> 00:17:47,190
是的

508
00:17:47,190 --> 00:17:48,549
我们不会大量增发

509
00:17:48,549 --> 00:17:50,450
你仍能找到优质投资机会

510
00:17:50,450 --> 00:17:57,279
股票表现极佳却仍在增发，管理层拥有这些

511
00:17:57,279 --> 00:17:57,940
非常

512
00:17:57,940 --> 00:17:58,460
你知道的

513
00:17:58,460 --> 00:18:00,119
丰厚的薪酬计划

514
00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:03,920
我只是指出我不喜欢的方面

515
00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:07,200
现在我看这个估值框架

516
00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:08,220
那估值如何

517
00:18:08,220 --> 00:18:11,119
股票每股约五十美元

518
00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:13,920
略高于这个价位

519
00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:16,539
预计今年增长约30%

520
00:18:16,539 --> 00:18:18,480
今年增长略低于30%

521
00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:21,730
去年实现了约50%增长

522
00:18:21,730 --> 00:18:23,970
问题是长期利润率如何

523
00:18:23,970 --> 00:18:26,430
我之前提到他们目前亏损

524
00:18:26,430 --> 00:18:29,000
可能15%到25%

525
00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:31,599
长期可能更高

526
00:18:31,599 --> 00:18:34,490
我觉得这里可能过于保守

527
00:18:34,490 --> 00:18:35,690
那么问题又来了

528
00:18:35,690 --> 00:18:36,849
再次问增长率

529
00:18:36,849 --> 00:18:37,849
这是稀释后的数据

530
00:18:39,130 --> 00:18:41,819
考虑到每年的稀释

531
00:18:41,819 --> 00:18:45,380
以及向员工增发股份

532
00:18:45,380 --> 00:18:47,900
因此我假设20%到25%

533
00:18:47,900 --> 00:18:48,900
计入稀释因素后

534
00:18:48,900 --> 00:18:51,429
可能接近25%到30%

535
00:18:51,429 --> 00:18:53,868
观察这些

536
00:18:53,868 --> 00:18:55,308
市盈率

537
00:18:55,308 --> 00:18:55,940
啊

538
00:18:55,940 --> 00:18:59,480
市盈率在25到35倍之间

539
00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:00,679
市盈比率

540
00:19:00,679 --> 00:19:02,439
从这个框架分析

541
00:19:02,439 --> 00:19:02,919
啊

542
00:19:02,919 --> 00:19:05,078
手有点抖

543
00:19:05,078 --> 00:19:06,959
我在观察这种情况

544
00:19:06,959 --> 00:19:09,190
可能想向上滚动页面

545
00:19:09,190 --> 00:19:10,109
观察这个

546
00:19:14,869 --> 00:19:17,069
最坏情况接近崩盘

547
00:19:17,069 --> 00:19:18,109
甚至

548
00:19:18,470 --> 00:19:19,970
而

549
00:19:19,970 --> 00:19:23,650
你知道高点可能高达百分之几

550
00:19:23,650 --> 00:19:27,869
因此总体来看我认为这很有趣

551
00:19:27,869 --> 00:19:29,710
但我当然不认为这

552
00:19:29,710 --> 00:19:31,150
正如你所知

553
00:19:31,150 --> 00:19:35,069
比如深度价值或风险回报类型

554
00:19:35,069 --> 00:19:36,670
极具吸引力的估值

555
00:19:36,670 --> 00:19:37,630
我可以这样说

556
00:19:37,630 --> 00:19:37,910
是的

557
00:19:37,910 --> 00:19:39,670
即使在最坏情形

558
00:19:40,069 --> 00:19:43,069
我在采用较为保守的假设

559
00:19:43,069 --> 00:19:46,329
仍能获得约50%的上涨空间

560
00:19:46,329 --> 00:19:48,809
这也是第三个关键点

561
00:19:48,809 --> 00:19:50,019
我一直在等待的

562
00:19:50,019 --> 00:19:50,720
并非总是如此

563
00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:52,619
有时我会遇到这种情况

564
00:19:52,619 --> 00:19:52,779
是的

565
00:19:52,779 --> 00:19:54,259
我确实认为这个最坏情形

566
00:19:54,259 --> 00:19:55,140
如果管理层这样做我会失望

567
00:19:55,140 --> 00:19:56,380
如果管理层实施

568
00:19:56,380 --> 00:19:58,960
我认为管理层能远超最坏情形

569
00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:00,900
在最坏情形下我预估

570
00:20:00,900 --> 00:20:02,720
你知道40-50%左右

571
00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:03,960
还有上行空间

572
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:05,559
理想情况下更多

573
00:20:05,559 --> 00:20:06,839
你知道高点情况

574
00:20:06,839 --> 00:20:07,119
是的

575
00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:09,200
如果他们实现2.5%年增长

576
00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:11,309
未来几年每年

577
00:20:11,309 --> 00:20:13,230
并达到25%的利润率

578
00:20:13,230 --> 00:20:14,670
并获得3-5倍市盈率

579
00:20:14,670 --> 00:20:14,990
倍数

580
00:20:14,990 --> 00:20:15,289
是的

581
00:20:15,289 --> 00:20:18,089
这只股票可能势不可挡

582
00:20:18,410 --> 00:20:24,140
但在可能出现更多竞争威胁的场景中

583
00:20:24,140 --> 00:20:25,599
来自他们的网络合作伙伴

584
00:20:25,599 --> 00:20:28,299
谁知道增长可能放缓

585
00:20:28,299 --> 00:20:29,279
也许他们会

586
00:20:29,279 --> 00:20:31,740
他们证明利润率会更困难

587
00:20:31,740 --> 00:20:33,940
这就是我的分析

588
00:20:33,940 --> 00:20:34,859
我喜欢它

589
00:20:34,859 --> 00:20:35,859
但并非完全青睐

590
00:20:35,859 --> 00:20:37,380
这就是我的评估标准

591
00:20:37,380 --> 00:20:39,109
希望这有教育意义

592
00:20:39,109 --> 00:20:39,809
你知道

593
00:20:39,809 --> 00:20:42,970
关于Rubric的视频并记住这个假设框架

594
00:20:42,970 --> 00:20:44,170
这是假设性的

595
00:20:44,170 --> 00:20:45,529
股价可能上涨

596
00:20:45,529 --> 00:20:46,349
也可能下跌

597
00:20:46,349 --> 00:20:46,769
很多

598
00:20:46,769 --> 00:20:47,730
取决于市场情绪

599
00:20:47,730 --> 00:20:48,329
你可以拥有

600
00:20:48,329 --> 00:20:51,019
也许有收购方会对其产生兴趣

601
00:20:51,019 --> 00:20:51,940
所以我看看

602
00:20:51,940 --> 00:20:52,539
我只是去

603
00:20:52,539 --> 00:20:54,220
它并没有强烈吸引我

604
00:20:54,220 --> 00:20:54,500
不过

605
00:20:54,500 --> 00:20:55,019
比如

606
00:20:55,019 --> 00:20:55,420
哦天啊

607
00:20:55,420 --> 00:20:58,559
我真的想深入探究这里

608
00:20:58,559 --> 00:20:59,680
但总体而言

609
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:00,299
我喜欢它

610
00:21:00,299 --> 00:21:02,000
所以我希望这对你们有帮助

611
00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:02,819
非常感谢观看

612
00:21:02,819 --> 00:21:03,720
解密投资

613
00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:04,140
如果确实如此

614
00:21:04,140 --> 00:21:05,440
请务必点赞支持

615
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:06,460
点击订阅按钮

616
00:21:06,460 --> 00:21:07,259
谢谢

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